EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS

NOTE: I’m quite sure that I’ll be able to see festival winners “Fatherland, “Fjord” and “To Hold a Mountain” soon, but I’d love to know if anyone knows how I can see “Dua”, “Fantasy”, “Guria” or “Shame and Money”? Let  me know 

Wow....Not long ago, 80 films was considered a lot but - wow - this year we have 101 national submissions, four Wild Cards from international festivals and (so far) nobody disqualified. 

Literally, almost every country is here this year....including the debuts of Cyprus, El Salvador and Rwanda, the somewhat unexpected returns of Congo-Kinshasa, Cuba, Sri Lanka and Syria, and the even more unexpected decision by Iran to stay in the race (I'm very happy about that) 

The good news is that we have interesting films representing the cultures and filmmaking traditions from every corner of the world. The bad news is that the larger number of countries probably makes it even harder for smaller films to break through. 

I’ve seen 37 of this year’s 105 films and I have 13 more screeners to watch.....So I'll continue with my "review-style" look at this year's candidates. 

Today we'll look at the films from Eastern Europe because I was fortunate to see half (11 of 22) of them this year. Here is a rundown of the 21 films submitted from the Eastern European region, plus the Kosovar "wild-card" that won Sundance, for a total of 22 candidates. 

BEST OF THE REGION: 

MACEDONIA- “17” Did you ever want to be a teenager again? Did you ever want to have kids (which will eventually involve raising a teenager)? Well, “17” will put those ideas to rest. “17” is a horrifying and, I fear, probably very realistic look at what it’s like to be a teen in 2026. The film begins with a blurry teenage sexual encounter that serves as a catalyst for the rest of the film. Our main character is 17-year old Sara, who at first seems unpopular, possibly bullied?, and generally a bitch to everyone around her. She has her reasons. The social dynamics at play with Sara and her classmates are familiar to..well…anyone who ever went to high school, but things now seem more fast-paced and  hypersexualized. The teen actors are so realistic….the director must have workshopped them as a class….Best of all, nobody seems themselves as a villain (even when they are), giving it a much more realistic ambiance. This is a gritty film with very brave performances. A few years ago, Macedonia sent a similarly-themed film (“Sisterhood”) that was great, but this is a more serious and more impressive effort. A

UKRAINE- "Traces”- How do you “review” a film that is essentially a series of testimonials about sexual assault during wartime? The power of “Traces” is clearly in the stories of its survivors, who were all victims of rape by Russian invading forces in Ukraine. The stories are horrific. Some were targeted for their political activities; others for simply being at home when the Russian soldiers plundered their towns. Like the Oscar-winning (and IFF shortlisted) “20 Days in Mariupol”, it is easily the most “important film” on the list. Everyone needs to know what is going on. The film eventually follows these brave woman as they join an organization dedicated to raising awareness of sexual crimes in the war in Ukraine. The film is very well-structured, though I’m not confident it will advance since the power is in the women and not necessarily the filmmaking. A-

 And now let’s take a look at the others, in alphabetical order:

ALBANIA- "A State Film"  During the Cold War, Albania was called the North Korea of Europe because dictator Enver Hoxha gradually cut the country off from the entire world, starting with the West but then also with the Communist USSR and its satellites. I've been to Albania and have studied Albanian history but this (very well-researched) archival documentary will confuse anybody not familiar with Albania's 20th century history. There's zero commentary, zero narration, and zero explanation. Because I work in this part of the world, the newsreels and video footage of Communist-era parades was interesting....but I think most viewers will be completely left in the dark. "Under the Flags, the Sun", the Paraguayan submission last year, was much more successful at using the archival documentary format to highlight the quiet terror of a Cold War dictator (in Paraguay, he was an anti-Communist far-right general). C

ARMENIA- “In the Land of Arto” This French co-production starts off great....Set in 2021, the first half is an engaging slow-burn mystery about a French widow who travels to a town in Armenia. We soon learn that she is trying to negotiate the local bureaucracy to get a birth certificate for her late husband so that her children in France can apply for their father's Armenian nationality in his honor. However, she soon learns that her husband lied to her about his entire identity, leading to a search for the truth. That takes about 45 minutes, with a cathartic finale involving her husband's ex-fiancee. Unfortunately the film is only half over. It then morphs into more of a political drama about the Frenchwoman and her Armenian guide, which is less successful. The woman's motivations become more confusing and less realistic as she inexplicably heads to the disputed Karabakh which Armenian audiences (but probably not American ones) know Armenia will lost in a war two years later. It's still a good movie but maybe it should have been a 40-minute short. B-

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “The Widower” This is a really wonderful little drama that very few people will ever see....and it's films like this that make me seek out all the submissions year after year. Mirsad is an elderly Bosnian man. His hard-working wife Enisa takes care of the home, the cooking, the clothes, and keeps the family together. He clearly loves her but takes for her granted. When Enisa dies in her sleep, Mirsad is forced to learn how to live alone. His son lives abroad and his daughter has a family of her own. Mirsad is probably depressed....but a macho Balkan man isn't allowed to be. It's a very "Balkan" film and at the same time it's incredibly universal. Probably too small to get noticed but I give it an A-

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help”  "God Will Not Help" is a 2.5 hour drama set in the early 1900s....A family of shepherds living deep in the countryside are surprised at the arrival of a strange woman dressed all in black. The woman speaks only Spanish and says she is the widow of the family's middle brother who went to South America to work years before. Is she really his widow? What does she want? How did the brother die? There's a really good movie in here somewhere and there are a lot of intriguing ideas here. Director Hana Jusic excels when the story borders on the supernatural, with hints of ghosts and sentient wolves and a general Brothers Grimm atmosphere....Many of our questions are answered.....but an equal number are not and the film is about 30 minutes too long. I'd love to see Jusic make a more traditional horror film or thriller. C+

CZECH REPUBLIC- “Only Pigeons Turn to Gold” For the second year in a row, the Czech Republic has picked an experimental documentary. And for the second year in a row, I was extremely impressed with the female director's creativity and awed by her ability to tell such a personal story (they both feature as a prominent main character in their film) with such raw emotions. "Only Pigeons Turn to Gold" is director Pepa Lubojacki's effort to understand why drug and alcohol addiction plagues so many members of her family, that she clearly loves....and achieve some kind of closure or catharsis. Even Pepa herself, she readily admits early on, has struggled with substance addiction. The film works best as a traditional documentary, and she tells the story of her brothers and cousins. It's less successful when it uses AI to animate old photographs and pigeons (usually in English, for unknown reasons) to tell stories and make philosophical observations about addiction. Excellent documentary filmmaking, though I found it a difficult watch...and maybe that was the point. B

HUNGARY- "Silent Friend" - Although “Silent Friend” is considered to be a strong contender, I found it to be very much a mixed bag. By their very nature, anthologies often mean that some stories are stronger than others. “Silent Friend” tells three stories set in three different time periods set around the same German ginkgo tree in 1908 and 1972 (though these years are never mentioned) and the 2020 COVID pandemic.  The 1908 timeline is a great film; it follows a brilliant young female science student who is the first woman accepted to her university. The 1972 timeline is good but feels a bit underdeveloped. The 2020 timeline (starring Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux) is the weakest, but it starts and finishes the film and eventually crowds out the other two, more interesting stories which both end suddenly. So for me, it didn’t really work. B-

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” This is a small but thought-provoking family drama about how a young Lithuanian couple’s difficult breakup is affected by the outbreak of war in neighboring Ukraine. The couple in question are Vytas and Maria. A former arthouse filmmaker, he now happily takes care of the home and parenting their 8-year old daughter, while Maria supports the family with her well-paid social media job. However, Maria is secretly bored, frustrated and exploring bisexuality, and no longer wants to be married to the unambitious Vytas. She asks for a divorce, Vytas is shocked and Russia invades Ukraine a few hours later throwing all of Lithuanian society into turmoil. While probably “too small” to advance, this did win a major award at Sundance showing that it is accessible to Americans. It sticks with you….it’s one of the films that I keep thinking about. The film skillfully shows how major world events can change the lives of individuals, as Vytas, Maria and their daughter navigate nationalism, activism, humanitarianism and disinformation on their own small scales. All three of them do good things and also very bad things, because that’s what human beings when confronted with adversity. Good luck. B+

SERBIA- “Wanderlust” One of the most bizarre entries of the year is Serbia’s B&W “Wanderlust” (literally “The Trip” in Serbian). At times, you feel like you’re watching an old Communist-era film from ….other times an experimental theatre piece, perhaps by Ionesco…..sometimes I was reminded of “Canterbury Tales”, “Castaway”, or the TV series “Lost”. It’s intriguing but the film never quite works. After the death of his father, an artist leaves to go on a boat journey. Where? That’s never clear, but he ends up disembarking alone on an island and hanging out. Then he goes back. That’s the film. The film is at its most interesting on the boat ride, where he is sailing alongside a group of bizarre characters (I’m guessing all of them are Serbian theatre actors from the way they act) who provide some action and comic relief.  But it’s all very aimless and “so what”.  C

SLOVAKIA- “Flood” This is a very old-fashioned film that looks like nominees from the 1980s. It’s a solid, well-acted drama set in a Czechoslovakian village that is due to be flooded by the Communist authorities to make way for a new reservoir. Our heroine is a bright teenaged girl who dreams of leaving her village to become a pilot, against the wishes of her domineering, conservative father who, eventually becomes an invalid requiring her care. Everything is about the film is fine but I was never particularly interested in the story . B

Number of Countries Participating this year: 21. 

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: All 24 Eastern European countries have participated at least four times.  

Who’s Missing?:        Like last year, BELARUS, MOLDOVA and RUSSIA are missing. Russia continues to boycott the Oscars over the Ukraine conflict (I have to give Iran credit for remaining in the race)......but they are still here with "Minotaur", representing France. Belarus was never a major presence in this category and hasn't sent a film since they were disqualified in 2020 for trying to claim the multi-national "Persian Lessons". 

MOLDOVA had a pretty great film year and I predicted they'd return with either dark comedy "The Wall" or period drama "Transit Times". I'm not sure why they quit again, after sending well-received movies 2022-2023. 

FRONTRUNNERS

1.  POLAND- “Fatherland” ((Letterboxd: 3.65)

2.   ROMANIA- “Fjord” (3.77)

These two Cannes winners are easily the frontrunners for a lot of reasons. Most importantly, people are WATCHING them and TALKING about them. Sadly. that’s what matters most. But both films also have great reviews and easily fit into Oscar wheelhouses- a legal drama with big stars And moral dilemmas, and a Cold War drama (with one big star). Both directors have international acclaim apart from their current films (though Mungiu has never been recognized by Oscar before). Reviews are also good and if they start winning Critics Prizes in the USA (where they are among the small number of films that have been released), their spots on the shortlist will be all but assured,

DARK HORSES….COULD ONE GET THROUGH?

3.  UKRAINE- “Traces” (3.61)

4. SUNDANCE (KOSOVO)- “Shame and Money ” (3.48)

5.   HUNGARY- “Silent Friend” (3.76)

6.   GEORGIA- “Guria” (3.54)

I think GEORGIA and Turkey are the only countries that compete at both the European Film Awards and the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards (which seems unfair).  Black-and-white tragicomedy "Guria", a deadpan look at the absurd problems faced by Georgian villagers during the crazy post-Soviet 1990s, became the second Georgian film to win Best Picture there a few days ago (after "April" in 2024).  Director Levan Koguashvili deserved to be nominated for "Street Days" and probably also for "Brighton 5th"....I'm not confident this droll, sad comedy will be able to make the Top 15, but it should be able to place well. 

Visar Morina’s underrated “Exile”” was one of my favorite submissions of 2020 and his anti-capitalist “Shame and Money”’s success at SUNDANCE showed that it can connect with American audiences. Nobody is talking about it, but it’s in with a shot if it can get voters to watch it. Sadly, I got a screener which expired without warning the day before I was going to watch. 

HUNGARY was an early favorite but may have lost too much buzz since its Cannes 2025 debut. UKRAINE, as mentioned earlier, is far more likely to score in the documentary feature category, than here. 

A STRONG SHOWING

7.   MONTENEGRO- “To Hold a Mountain” (3.75)

8.   CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turn to Gold” (3.78)

9.   MACEDONIA- “17” (3.54)

10.   LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” (3.45)

I’ve already talked about Czech Republic, Lithuania and Macedonia. “17” was my favorite of the three but the Czech film is more or a “critics choice” - though I don’t expect it will be shortlisted. 

MONTENEGRO, about a rural family faced with NATO military exercises in their small community, got excellent reviews at Sundance though it’s far more likely to be recognized in the Documentary category….

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

11.   BULGARIA- “The Dreamed Adventure” (3.30)

12. KOSOVO- “Dua” (3.62)

13.   SLOVAKIA- “Flood” (3.68)

14.   AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev: School” (c. 3.79)

I've already talked about Slovakia's solid but forgettable drama.....so let's look at the other three.

AZERBAIJAN's gorgeous historical biopic is not only a sequel...it's the final chapter in a big-budget tetralogy (did you know that means a 4-film "trilogy"? I didn't....) of four films about Azerbaijani oil magnate and philanthropist Haji Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. This final film deals with the creation of Azerbaijan's first school for girls. The films were quite a big deal in Azerbaijan (where I live), and the first film was quite good (it's the only one I could find with English subtitles). But while American audiences may be impressed by the historical production design, they will likely be confused by entering the story at the end and, potentially, completely uninterested. BULGARIA's "Dreamed Adventure" somehow won the Jury Prize at Cannes but this nearly 3-hour cinema verite crime drama doesn't seem to have many fans. Directed by a German woman, it's a German majority production made in Bulgaria about a woman who becomes involved with smuggling operations in the remote borderlands between Bulgaria and Turkey in the economic upheaval of the 1990s. I hear maybe people find it terribly boring. KOSOVO’s “Dua” is a coming-of-age story set against the background of the Kosovo war of independence. Reviews are good and director Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist once before. But this category has rarely gone for female coming-of-agers…

LIKELY TO BE FORGOTTEN

15.   ESTONIA- “Our Erika” (3.70)

16.   BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “The Widower” (c. 3.10)

17.   CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” (3.35)

18.   LATVIA- “Ulya” (3.50)

ESTONIA and LATVIA have selected nationalist sports dramas about real-life female athletes. Estonia's "Our Erika" is about Erika Salumäe, a local cycling champion who grew up in a Soviet orphanage before becoming independent Estonia's first modern Olympic gold medalist. It has good reviews and did well at the local box office, but very little festival play and the story is clearly aimed at domestic audiences. Similarly, Latvia's film is about Soviet-era basketball player Uljana Semjonova whose unusual height made her a star. This was also a local hit that will struggle to interest American audiences…and it has the additional hurdle of casting a cis male actor in the role of Ulya, which is surely to upset some “woke” voters. 

BOTTOM TIER

19.  SLOVENIA- “Fantasy” (3.35)

20.   ARMENIA- “In the Land of Arto” (2.99)

21.   SERBIA- “Wanderlust” (c. 2.90)

22.   ALBANIA- “A State Film” (c. 3.45)

SLOVENIA’s  unabashedly queer “Fantasy”, about a group of young women meet a proud transgender woman who changes their outlook on life, is supposed to be very good and also very heavy-handed and a bit preachy. I’m excited to see it but it just doesn’t look like what this committee recognizes. 

FUN FACTS:

Genres:       We have four documentaries (Albania, Czech Republic, Montenegro and Ukraine) and two comedy-dramas (Georgia and Lithuania). The others are straight dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen eleven of the twenty-two films (See above)

Film I’m Most Excited To See: "Guria" from Georgia

Number I Predicted Correctly: I did okay.....8/21.....Azerbaijan, Croatia, Czech Republic,  (though I had help from the shortlist), Georgia, Kosovo, Lithuania, Macedonia and Poland.....plus I very close with Ukraine. 

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin-       Czech Republic (Best Documentary), Macedonia, Ukraine (Panorama, Best Documentary)

·        Cannes-     Bulgaria (Jury Prize), Kosovo, Latvia, Poland (Best Director), Romania (Palme d'Or) 

·        Sundance-  Lithuania (Best Director), Montenegro (Best World Documentary) + "Shame & Money" (Best World Film)

·        Venice-       Albania, Georgia, Hungary (Marcello Mastroianni Award)

 Women Directors- 9/22….Almost half! Blerta Basholli (Kosovo), Ildikó Enyedi (Hungary), Valeska Grisebach (Bulgaria), Hana Jušić (Croatia), Alisa Kovalenko (Ukraine), Kukla (Slovenia), Pepa Lubojacki (Czech Republic), Kosara Mitić (Macedonia) and Tamara Stepanyan (Armenia)

Oldest and Youngest Directors-

 

Hungary's Ildikó Enyedi, 70, is the senior director in the group, while Estonia's German Golub, 33, is the youngest. 

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?-  It's a strong group....Maybe 9 of 22?

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Montenegro for its Sundance Documentary winner....though that's pretty unlikely

Buzziest Films: It's a tie between Cannes Palme d'Or winner "Fjord" and Best Director winner "Fatherland"

Letterboxd Ratings (as of November 4, 2026):      Best: Azerbaijan (3.79) and Czech Republic (3.78)….Worst: Serbia (2.96) and Armenia (2.99). 

Languages – We have three films in Albanian (Albania, Kosovo and Sundance), four in Serbo-Croatian (Bosnia, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia) and two in German (Hungary and Poland) plus one each in Azerbaijani, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, French (Armenia), Georgian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Macedonian, Slovak and Ukrainian. The films from Romania (Norwegian, Romanian, English) and Slovenia (Slovenian, Albanian, Macedonian and Serbo-Croatian) are reportedly multi-lingual.

The Czech and Romanian films also have quite a lot of English. The Slovakian film is mostly in Slovak but reportedly the first-ever film that features a lot of the local Rusyn languageDumbest Decision:  Romania, because "Fjord" had already qualified and they could have had two films on the shortlist (see Snubs below).  

Controversies and Changes:  No big controversies, although eyebrows were raised when Romania and, less controversially, Montenegro picked movies that had already qualified via film festivals. Kosovo happily took two spots. Bulgaria should have been controversial (it's a majority German production by a German director) but nobody seemed to care.  Ukraine also got some flack for extending its Oscar deadline after announcing its shortlist, and picking a film that hadn't originally entered....

Oscar History: The big name here is Paweł Pawlikowski, who won an Oscar for "Ida" (meh), and was nominated for Best Director and Best International Feature for "Cold War". Ildikó Enyedi got nominated for "On Body and Soul" (meh). 

No less than six directors are here for the third time. Romania's Cristian Mungiu was famously here in 2007 for "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days" and again in 2012 for "Beyond the Hills". Hungary's Ildikó Enyedi was here for "My 20th Century" way back in 1989 and again for "On Body and Soul" in 2017. Latvia's Viesturs Kairišs is here for the third time following "Chronicles of Melanie" in 2017 and "January" in 2022.  So is Georgia's Levan Koguashvili following "Street Days" in 2010 and "Brighton 4th" in 2021. And of course there's Oscar winner Paweł Pawlikowski who was selected for Poland for "Ida" in 2014 and "Cold War" in 2018. And Visar Morina represented his native Kosovo in 2015 for "Babai" and 2020 for the criminally underrated "Exile". 

Here for the second time: Blerta Basholli ("Hive"), Zaur Gasimli ("Taghiyev: Oil"), Hana Jusic ("Quit Staring at my Plate"), Tamara Stepanyan ("My Armenian Phantoms"). Gasimli and Stepanyan have been picked two years in a row, which is quite unusual. 

Of the 21 eligible countries, four have won the Oscar (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), five others have been nominated (Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Macedonia and Romania), and five shortlisted (Armenia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Serbia and Ukraine). The other seven are waiting for their first trip to the second round, the most surprising of which is Slovakia.

Most Notable Omissions:   

Three potential frontrunners were cut in the preliminaries. Insane Hungarian thriller "Feels Like Home" may be my favorite movie of 2026. I know a lot of people like "Silent Friend" and it has the festival cred....but "Feels Like Home" is a much better film. Sci-fi tragicomedy "U are the Universe", about a Ukrainian cosmonaut alone in space when the Earth is destroyed, swept the Ukrainian Film Awards, got a U.S. release and got a lot of love from critics that would have helped it to make the shortlist...But it wasn't submitted to the Ukrainian Academy, even when the deadline was extended. But perhaps the biggest tragedy was for Locarno Golden Leopard winner "You Don't Belong Here" from Romania. "Fjord" had already qualified via Cannes but Romania decided to snub its moral dilemma drama, all for the supposed honor of having their name on the statuette (which, according to the new rules, it won't). Romania could have had two strong contenders. 

Also out: "Chica Checa" (Czech Republic), Radu Jude's "Diary of a Chambermaid" (Romania), Pula winner "Honey Bunny" and hit comedy "The Wedding" (Croatia), Stephan Komandarev's "Made in EU" (Bulgaria), "Skateboarding is Not for Girls" (Macedonia), "Supporting Role" (Georgia), "Wild Wild East" (Poland). 

Most Famous Face: It's a star-studded group......We've got Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve (Romania's "Fjord"), Sandra Hüller (Poland's "Fatherland"), Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux (Hungary's "Silent Friend") and even French weirdo Denis Lavant (Armenia's "In the Land of Arto"). Ironically, none of them are really "from" the countries they are representing (yes, I know Stan was born in Romania). 

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 20 Eastern European candidates last year. My favorite was definitely the wonderful "Tower of Strength" (A) from tiny Montenegro, which was such a special film. I also loved Georgia's "Panopticon" (A-) and Latvia's fever dream anime "Dog of God" (A-). Also very good: Slovakia's "Father" (B+), Croatia's "Fiume o Morte!" (B+), Ukraine's "2000 Meters to Andriivka" (B+), Azerbaijan's "Taghiyev: Oil" (B+) and Poland's critically maligned but wholly original biopic "Franz" (B+). 

Good- "The Tale of Silyan" (Macedonia; B), Little Trouble Girls" (Slovenia; B) and Estonia's "Rolling Papers" (B)

Less successful: Czech Republic's "I'm Not Everything I Want to Be" (well-made but painful to watch; B-), Bulgaria's "Tarika" (B-), Armenia's "My Armenian Phantoms" (C+), Bosnia's "“Blum, Masters of Their Own Destiny" (C), Serbia's "Sun Never Again" (C-) and Lithuania's "Southern Chronicles" (D). 

I failed to see "Luna Park" (Albania), "Orphan" (Hungary) and "Traffic" (Romania).