Wednesday, November 24, 2010

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- EASTERN EUROPE

The films from Eastern Europe this year are not a very promising bunch....17 films are competing from the 21 eligible countries.....

ABSOLUTELY NOT:

17. ESTONIA- “The Temptation of St. Tony”
16. AZERBAIJAN- “The Precinct”
15. CROATIA- “The Blacks”

Better luck next year for these three republics, formerly parts of the USSR and Yugoslavia...Both AZERBAIJAN and ESTONIA have gone with surreal, metaphorical route filled with abstract imagery, while CROATIA has gone with grim realism.

“The Temptation of St. Tony” has gotten a lot of festival play (I saw it in DC) and “The Precinct” has somehow managed a tiny US release in California. Despite interesting (and strange) trailers, there’s no way either can contend for an Oscar. “St. Tony” takes a cue from David Lynch’s “Eraserhead”, and includes a lot of bizarre imagery including murder, dead dogs and cannibalism, but it has no linear plot, makes very little sense and manages to be boring despite its racy subject matter. “The Precinct” follows a photographer who angers his fiancée by postponing their marriage to take a job in Africa. The couple get into a car accident and find themselves in a metaphysical police precinct where the cops know every detail of their lives. Too weird.

Despite a glowing review from Variety, Croatia’s “The Blacks” is also guaranteed not to advance. This bleak war drama told in flashbacks looks at war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the 1990s. With dark lighting and unlikeable characters plotting to kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure, there are as many people who hate the film as like it.

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY:

14. SLOVAKIA- “The Border”
13. SLOVENIA- “9:06”
12. BULGARIA- “Eastern Plays”

The Bulgarians (shortlisted for the first time last year) have selected a bleak drama about two brothers- one, a recovering drug addict, the other a teenaged skinhead. The Slovenians have selected a thriller about a policeman who becomes obsessed with the life of a man whose death (murder? suicide?) he is investigating. The Slovaks have selected a fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian town that was literally split down the middle by invading Soviets in the 1940s, dividing families and farms between Czechoslovakia and the USSR (and now Slovakia and Ukraine).

I’ve seen the films from Bulgaria and Slovakia, and they’re simply not good enough. “Eastern Plays” somehow won the Tokyo Film Festival, but it’s not an interesting film and I’m sure there will be enough people who agree with me who will keep the film out of the running. The only nice thing I can say is that Bulgarian production values have come a long way since the 1990s. The Slovakian film is fascinating- I liked it very much. But it’s definitely a flawed documentary whose main attribute is that it highlights an issue that I never would have known about otherwise. Certain elements could have been expanded upon (particularly the ethnic element), others edited, and while it is certainly worth seeing, it doesn’t deserve an Oscar. The Slovenian film is said to be a decent-enough film, but I’ve heard it begins to fall apart in the end- exactly what you don’t what a thriller to do. Better luck next year to these three too...

UNLIKELY FOR THE SHORTLIST:



11. HUNGARY- “Bibliotheque Pascal”
10. ALBANIA- “East West East”
9. MACEDONIA- “Mothers”
8. LATVIA- “Hong Kong Confidential”
7. POLAND- “All That I Love”

Coming-of-age punk.
Sado-masochistic sex.
Albanian comedy.
Three short films, consisted of two dramas and a documentary.
An Asian comedy made by Eastern Europeans.

These five films all strike me as very unlikely....None of them has any strong base of support, and none of them are universally loved. The dark horse out of these is really the Latvian comedy, of which there is nearly ZERO information online.

ALBANIA's comedy, "East West West" has a winning plot, and I thought it might be a contender. Circa 1990, an Albanian cycling team leaves the reclusive dictatorship for a cycling competition in France. As soon as they make it to Italy, they learn the government has been overthrown and they have to figure out what to do. Reviews have been positive but unenthusiastic.

HUNGARY's film, "Bibliotheque Pascal", is a visually creative film about an Eastern European woman who must recount the fantastical story of how she was trafficked into sexual slavery, in order to regain custody of her child. Sounds like "Big Fish" mixed with "Taken". People like it a lot, or hate it.

The MACEDONIAns have chosen a rather strange film called "Mothers". It premiered at Toronto and features a short about nine-year olds reporting an imaginary flasher, a slightly longer film about a man making a documentary about a small village, and finally a documentary about a serial killer. Too weird.

POLAND's coming-of-age comedy-drama, "All That I Love", has the best chance of the lot, but this likeable Communist-era story about a young man using punk rock music to join in the Solidarity Movement doesn't have enough behind it to make the finals.

LATVIA....Who knows? There's not a single English-language review online. "Hong Kong Confidential" is a fun romantic comedy-drama about six intersecting lives set in Hong Kong and starring an international cast from Hong Kong, Japan, Latvia and Lithuania speaking Japanese, Cantonese and English. Sounds like fun, but not really Oscary.....


VERY DARK HORSES:


6. BOSNIA- “Cirkus Columbia”
5. SERBIA- “Besa”
4. ROMANIA- “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”

These three Balkan countries aren't likely to make the finals, but they do have a slight shot. BOSNIA has the biggest name....Since winning the Oscar for "No Man's Land" eight years ago, Danis Tanovic has only made three films. His latest, "Cirkus Columbia", is his first return to Bosnian filmmaking since his Oscar win. The film tells the story of a man returning to his home village from Germany in the years just before the Balkan wars. ROMANIA has the highest-profile film, "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle", about a jailed juvenile delinquent at war with his mother. Although it's won many awards and charmed a large minority of film critics, there are plenty of people who are bored by the film, its slow pacing, its long takes and are likely to give it low marks. Also remember that neither Romania nor its New Wave has ever charmed Oscar voters before. It has a slight chance with the Elite Committee, none with the large one. SERBIA's "Besa" (Solemn Promise) is an interesting multi-ethnic drama from what used to be one of the world's most multi-ethnic nations. During World War I, a Serbian principal is called to the frontlines, forcing him to leave his pretty Slovene wife to be protected by his uneducated Albanian manservant (played by a Serb). Their agreement is a besa and the relationship between the three forms the plot of the film. The film is largely an unknown quantity- No major film festivals, no review on Variety, making it difficult to figure out.

All of these films have a VERY uphill battle.

COULD GET LUCKY:


3. RUSSIA- “The Edge”
2. GEORGIA- “Street Days”

The Eastern Europeans have sent a fairly weak group this year....Enemies on the battlefield, Georgia and Russia, have a chance at the shortlist, although I don't think either one can make the Final Five.

As expected, RUSSIA has the bigger film...."The Edge" is a big, expensive film about the highs and lows of life in one of the Soviet Union's Siberian work camps after the deportations in the 1950s. It's filled with big trains, romance and high production values and it has an Oscary story....Good reviews but no one seems to be excited about it.

GEORGIA's "Street Days" is a fascinating, low-budget morality play whose plot reminds me of the brilliant "Klopka", which made the shortlist for Serbia three years ago. A man is blackmailed by corrupt cops who want to extort money from his wealthy friend's son. Faced with a choice of going to jail or framing the teen, this film is said to pack a wallop. Good luck to Georgia to get their second nomination!

VERY POSSIBLE:


1. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Kawasaki’s Rose”

I think Kawasaki's Rose will be the one Eastern European flick to make this year's shortlist. In the film, a popular anti-Communist dissident's life falls apart when it is revealed in the press that had been forced by the Czechoslovakian government to act as a informer decades before. The film has gotten good reviews and Oscar has picked Jan Hrebejk before ("Divided We Fall"). The plot sounds Oscary and it's not a strong year.....

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None that I know of.

Number of countries opting out: 4 former Soviet republics. ARMENIA and LITHUANIA submitted films last year, but chose not to enter this year, despite having some decent releases. Also absent: UKRAINE (“You, My Joy” will be eligible next year) and Europe’s last dictatorship, BELARUS, which hasn’t submitted a film since 1996. Belarus should have sent the handsome war drama “Brest Fortress”.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many….Two or three, with a few more dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 14 primary languages: Albanian, Azeri, Bulgarian, Cantonese (!), Czech, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbo-Croatian and Slovene. Interestingly enough, the Slovakian film is in Hungarian. Lots of multi-lingual films….the Azeri film features some Russian, the Albanian film has some Italian, the Serbian one features Slovene and Albanian, the Bulgarian film has some Turkish, the Hungarian film features some Romanian and the Latvian film is mostly in Cantonese (with some English and Japanese mixed in).

Highest profile films: Probably ROMANIA’s “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle” which won the Silver Bear at Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: I’m predicting the CZECH REPUBLIC for the third year in a row (although neither of the last two got nominated!)

Longest Shot for a Nomination: ESTONIA’s surreal experimental film, “The Temptation of St. Tony”.

Number of Comedies: Two. ALBANIA and LATVIA, although ESTONIA and POLAND have some comedy elements.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. SLOVAKIA plus part of MACEDONIA’s three-part film.

Oscar History: The race features one former Oscar winner- BOSNIA’s Danis Tanović who won the 2002 Foreign Film Award for “No Man’s Land”, and two former nominees- CZECH REPUBLIC’s Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) and MACEDONIA’s Milcho Manchevski (“Before the Rain”).

Albania’s Gjergj Xhuvani (“Slogans”), Hungary’s Szabolcs Hajdu (“White Palms”), Latvia’s Maris Martinsons (“Loss”) and Russia’s Alexei Uchitel (“His Wife’s Diary”) have participated in the Oscar race before, although Martinsons competed for his adopted country of Lithuania.

Eight of the seventeen countries have been nominated before (including Serbia, whose filmmakers got many nominations as Yugoslavia).

Number of Female Directors: None. :(

Familiar Faces: No household names...Japanese actress Kaori Momoi (“Memories of a Geisha”, “Kagemusha”) co-stars in the Latvian submission….Alexander Mashkov (“Behind Enemy Lines”) stars in the Russian one….Bosnian actor Emir Hadzihafizbegovic stars in his tenth Oscar submission (this time, for Croatia).

Tough Choices: The biggest snub was “How I Ended This Summer”, which was the favorite for RUSSIA, although the “one-film-per-country rule” meant an early exit for massive period drama “Tsar” and critical flop “Burnt by the Sun 2”. The other big snub was ROMANIA’s “Tuesday Before Christmas”….In any other year, “On the Path” would have been a shoo-in for BOSNIA...My pick for SERBIA, “The Woman With a Broken Nose”, lost by one vote and my pick for LATVIA, “Rudolf’s Gold” was also the runner-up….Others that missed the list “Three Seasons in Hell” from CZECH REPUBLIC, “Dark House” and “Little Rose” from POLAND, and call-girl drama “Slovenka” from SLOVENIA.

Controversies and Changes: No big stories from this part of the world. The best I can do is CROATIA, which picked a controversial film about war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the Balkan wars. RUSSIA was able to avoid a controversy when three-time Oscar nominee (and one-time winner) Nikita Mikhalkov pulled his poorly reviewed “Burnt By the Sun 2” from consideration for the Russian slot. Many had predicted that Mikhalkov’s stature and stellar Oscar record, and the fact that the first film had won the 1995 Oscar, would mean that, despite poor reviews, the film would rep Russia.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I did very well! 9 out of 17!! (Namely, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia) plus I had “Besa” as my Serbian alternate. …..However, I’ll admit I’d never even heard of the films from Azerbaijan, Latvia, Russia or Slovakia before they were selected.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the nominees from BULGARIA (C-), ESTONIA (D) and SLOVAKIA (B+) at this year’s EU Film Festival in Washington, DC, and was somewhat disappointed. There are quite a few intriguing films on the roster, but if I could only pick one, I’d choose ALBANIA’s “East West East” since I enjoyed Xhuvani’s “Slogans” and the plot (an Albanian cycling team is confused as to what to do when their government is overthrown while they are abroad in Italy) sounds like a lot of fun. Runner-ups for me: GEORGIA’s morality play, “Street Days” and LATVIA’s Asian comedy “Hong Kong Confidential”.

Last year's race: I only managed to see 3 of last year’s 17 films. Disturbing SLOVENIAn thriller (“Landscape No. 2”) was a flawed film, but it was also great bloody fun to watch, and managed to make the audience jump (B+). It was far better than POLAND’s high-concept dramedy “Reverse” (B-), which had a great idea but only so-so follow-thru, and ARMENIA’s boring 50-minute documentary, “Autumn of the Magician” (D). I hope to see the nominees from ESTONIA (DVD) and ROMANIA (Netflix) before the end of the year. Eastern Europe didn’t crack the Top Five last year, although Bulgaria made the shortlist.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- LATIN AMERICAN, AFRICAN AND CANADIAN FILMS

Well, Oscar accepted 65 of the 66 countries that entered the competition (poor Afghanistan!) and you can see the whole list here:
http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2010/20101013a.html

There are 16 films from Western Europe, 16 films from Asia, 16 films from Africa and the Americas, and 17 films from Eastern Europe.

Here are my predictions:

NICE TRY:

16. NICARAGUA- "La Yuma"
15. COLOMBIA- "Crab Trap"
14. PUERTO RICO- "Miente"
13. URUGUAY- "A Useful Life"
12. ETHIOPIA- "The Athlete"

By all accounts, these five films were made by filmmakers with a great love of cinema, and who want very much to develop the art in their respective countries. ETHIOPIA's "Athlete", a biographical drama about the often tragic life of Olympic gold medallist marathoner and national hero Abebe Bikila, is the first-ever Ethiopian film to enter the competition. NICARAGUA's "La Yuma", a drama about a scrappy female boxer trying to rise above her situation, is the first Nicaraguan film to be made in twenty years, and the draw of a rare local film has been a big success in the small Central American country. URUGUAY selected a spare 67-minute B&W dramedy starring a local film critic and former Cinematheque director, about the closure of a financially trouble Cinematheque in Montevideo. COLOMBIA's "Crab Trap", about a white visitor to a largely Afro-Latino village community, stars mostly amateur actors, while the trailer for PUERTO RICO's film resembles an MTV music video with bright colors, nighttime locations, and liberal sexual attitude packed together in a psychological thriller.

However, all five are way out of their league at the Oscars....Ethiopia and Nicaragua don't have properly developed film industries, Uruguay and Colombia are felt by some to be "boring" films, and Puerto Rico has gotten mixed reviews.... Constrained by their low-budgets (particularly a problem for Ethiopia) and a lot of competition, they should just feel proud to compete.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY
11. CHILE- "The Life of Fish"
10. EGYPT- "Messages from the Sea"
9. BRAZIL- "Lula, o Filho do Brasil"
8. COSTA RICA- "Of Love and Other Demons"

BRAZIL's expensive presidential biography, "Lula, Son of Brazil" has superb, high-quality production values but a hackneyed plot and mixed reviews. CHILE chose Matias Bize's talky romance, about a travel writer who returns home to Chile for a brief visit, where he ends up at the party of an ex-girlfriend....I loved "En La Cama", another (very different) talky romance by Bize. COSTA RICA's "Of Love and Other Demons" is a handsome adaptation of a Gabriel Garcia Marquez novella, about a noble-born girl who is sent away to a monastery after being bitten by a rabid dog, where she develops a relationship with a priest. EGYPT has been sending films since 1957 with no luck. This year's pick is "Messages from the Sea", about a socially awkward, university graduate who returns home to Alexandria to work as a fisherman, and his relationship with a mysterious local woman who may or may not be a prostitute.

I don't think any of these are well-liked enough to make the next round...BRAZIL has the style but not the substance....CHILE is too small.....EGYPT got good reviews, but it's a tough film to love and if "Yacoubian Building" couldn't get a nomination, neither will "Messages". COSTA RICA may crack the Top 20, but it's highly unlikely to make the 9-film shortlist.

SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY

7. VENEZUELA- "Hermano"
6. ARGENTINA- "Carancho"

Defending chamption ARGENTINA is the only South American country ever to win in this category...As they often do, they've chosen a noirish thriller starring Ricardo Darin (star of last year's winner, "The Secret in Their Eyes"), about an ambulance chasing lawyer. It's not as good as "Secret", but it has its fans. VENEZUELA traditionally has the weakest films of the eight competing South American nations (Bolivia sat out, so there are only seven this year), but "Hermano" was the surprise winner at this year's Moscow Film Festival and the film has gotten positive notices for its story of two soccer-playing brothers. They're both real long-shots this year, though it's nice to see perennial bridesmaid Venezuela so high up the list this year....

DARK HORSES:

5. ALGERIA- "Hors-la-Loi" (Outside the Law)
4. PERU- "Contracorriente" (Undertow)

Dark horses for that ninth slot include a propaganda drama from ALGERIA directed by two-time Oscar nominee Rachid Bouchareb ("Dust of Life", "Indigenes"), and a daringly original gay-interest drama from last year's surprise nominee, PERU.

"Outside the Law" has caused a lot of controversy in France for its portrayal of Algeria's war of independence. Even those that like the film say its jingoistic story borders on propaganda, and that might not sit well with the Oscar committee, even though they've shown they like Bouchareb. After all, I didn't think "Indigenes" was good enough to make the cut in 2007, but the committee elevated it to the Final Five over "Volver" and "Curse of the Golden Flower"....

"Contracorriente" is great, and I liked the film the more the day after I saw it, because I couldn't get it out of my head. It's an incredibly original film, about a man in a Peruvian seaside village who loves his pregnant wife and is active in his community, but who is also in love with a male painter who has moved there to paint. The love triangle that is created by this forbidden relationship is both easier and more difficult when the painter dies and returns as a ghost. It's a real dark horse. Can Peru make the finals two years in a row? I tend to doubt it, but we'll see...

REAL CONTENDERS:

3. MEXICO- "Biutiful"
2. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"

MEXICO's dark drama, "Biutiful", starring Javier Bardem as a man who only has months to live and SOUTH AFRICA village AIDS drama are both considered favorites to make the shortlist.

South Africa's film got a 10-minute standing ovation at Cannes, and is the sort of sentimental drama that the traditional Oscar voters really go for....Another South African AIDS drama, "Yesterday", got an Oscar nomination with weaker reviews. A young girl and her sick mother face prejudice from their traditional community. It's one of the first features made in Sepedi, South Africa's fifth most spoken language. While a lot of people say the film is too dark and dismal, Mexico's "Biutiful" has the benefit of a strong Best Actor campaign for Javier Bardem, and it's famous names may entitle it to a spot on the three-film shortlist from the elite committee even if it's too much of a downer for the big committee.

Both films stand a good chance with both.

SAFE BET
1. CANADA- "Incendies"

Two Canadian twins of Lebanese descent- a boy and a girl- learn after their mother's death that they have a long-lost brother who was somehow left behind in Lebanon. This movie, based on an acclaimed play, has great reviews, positive buzz, and comes from a country that the Oscar committee has really liked recently.

It's in.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 8 from North America, 9 from South America and 11 from Africa

Number of countries participating this year: 16, including a first-time entrant from Ethiopia.

Number of countries disqualified: None that I know of, although I heard a rumor that JAMAICA lobbied to send a film in Jamaican Creole and was told it counted as English, even though it required subtitles in the US.

Number of countries opting out: 13, but nine of those have only entered films once or twice. The most surprising absentees were BOLIVIA, CUBA and MOROCCO, which have become regular participants in recent years. Cuba had quite a few films this year, and I was looking forward to seeing both of Bolivia’s front-runners, “Red, Yellow, Green” and the claustrophobic thriller “The Elevator”. Also absent: CHAD didn’t send “The Screaming Man” (I’m guessing it never played at home), DOMINICAN REPUBLIC , which had Michelle Rodriguez's well-made historical drama "Tropic of Blood" and PANAMA chose not to debut in the Oscar competition with clever local comedy “Chance”.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Three with a realistic shot, three with an outside chance.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Six. Ten films are in Spanish, two films are in a combination of French and Arabic, plus one each in Amharic (Ethiopia), Arabic (Egypt), Portuguese (Brazil) and the obscure Sepedi (South Africa)

Highest profile films: MEXICO's “Biutiful”, directed by Oscar nominee Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu and starring Oscar winner Javier Bardem takes first prize, followed by the much buzzed-about film from Canada, “Incendies”.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: CANADA for “Incendies”

Longest Shot for a Nomination: NICARAGUA for their earnest boxing drama “La Yuma”.

Number of Comedies: Only URUGUAY, one of the only countries in the world that usually sends comedies to this competition.

Oscar History: Mexico’s Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu was nominated for Best Foreign Film (Amores Perros), as well as Best Picture and Best Director (Babel). Rachid Bouchareb is only 51, but he has represented Algeria four times, garnering an impressive two Foreign Oscar nominations for Dust of Life and Indigenes. Brazil’s Fabio Barreto (now sadly comatose as a result of a car accident) got a nomination in 1997 for O Quatrilho. Argentina’s Pablo Trapero (2008), Chile’s Matias Bize (2006), Canada’s Denis Villeneuve (1997, 1998, 2000), Egypt’s Daoud Abdel Sayed (1994) and South Africa’s Oliver Schmitz (1989) have all represented their countries in the Oscar race before.

Four of the sixteen countries have won a Foreign Oscar (Algeria, Argentina, Canada and South Africa), while five others have been nominated (Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Puerto Rico).

Number of Female Directors: Two directors, both making their feature debuts, and both representing Central American countries- Hilda Hidalgo (COSTA RICA) and Florence Jaugey (a French-born director representing NICARAGUA).

Familiar Faces: The most familiar face is obviously Javier Bardem, as a dying man in Mexico’s “Biutiful”, followed by Ricardo Darin in Argentina’s “Carancho”. Less recognizable are Santiago Cabrera (Heroes) in Chile’s “The Life of Fish”, Remy Girard (Remy in Canada’s sole Oscar winner, “Barbarian Invasions”) in Canada’s “Incendies” and excellent Mexican character actor Damián Alcázar in Costa Rica’s “Of Love and Other Demons”. If you remember “Indigenes”, you’ll recognize French actors Roschdy Zem, Jamel Debbouze and Sami Bouajila who reunite in Algeria’s “Hors-la-Loi”.

Tough Choices: MEXICO apparently had the toughest decision. They first announced a seven-film shortlist, which was later expanded to ten and then twelve, including Diego Luna’s “Abel”, which many predicted would win the nomination. PERU was expected to choose foundling drama “Octubre”, but wisely went with “Undertow” instead. URUGUAY dithered until the late minute, with gay drama “Leo’s Room” unfortunately finishing as runner-up. Most Oscar prognosticators felt Xavier Dolan’s “Heartbeats” was a shoo-in to represent CANADA...until “Incendies” took Toronto by storm a few weeks before the deadline. EGYPT surprised when none of the frontrunners appeared on a four-film shortlist, including “The Traveller”, starring Omar Sharif and funded by the Ministry of Culture. PUERTO RICO's Fernando Allende was noticeably perturbed when his period drama “Maria” was passed up for edgy thriller “Miente”.

Controversies and Changes: BRAZIL caused the only minor controversy when they selected an expensive biography of their popular President a few weeks before his designated successor ran for election. The film, though well made, was a critical and box-office disappointment. An official poll noted that more than 70% of Brazilians thought the country should choose state-of-the-art sci-fi film “Nosso Lar”. Some felt the decision was politically motivated, while others said the jury may have felt sympathy for acclaimed director Fabio Barreto who has been unconscious for nearly a year since a terrible car accident. No other major controversies, although COSTA RICA's film is a majority Colombian production….

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Five: Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela, although I also predicted “Of Love and Other Demons” for Colombia.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve seen the nominees from Peru (A-) and Colombia (C-). I’m intrigued by the trailer of PUERTO RICO's trippy psychological thriller “Miente”, so I’d have to say that’s my first choice, followed by Canada’s “Incendies”.

Last year's race: I saw ten of last year’s 14 films- The best was Argentina's Oscar winner “The Secret in Their Eyes” (A), followed closely by Canada’s “I Killed My Mother” (A-), South Africa’s “White Wedding” (B+), Uruguay’s “Bad Day to Go Fishing” (B+), Bolivia’s “Zona Sur” (B), Mexico's "Backyard" (B), Morocco’s “Casanegra” (B-), Colombia's "The Wind Journeys" (C+), Chile’s “Dawson, Isla 10” (C) and “Fallen Gods”, the lackluster entry from Cuba (D+). I hope to see "Milk of Sorrow", the Oscar-nominated entry from Peru soon.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2011- POLAND to VIETNAM

Here's the last tranche of my predictions. I'd like to call special attention to the section on my former home country of THAILAND. I'm predicting "Uncle Boonmee" like everyone else, but this is one of the predictions I am LEAST confident about. Deep inside, I think Thailand will ignore the Palme d'Or winner and go with royal epic "King Naresuan III". I may yet change my mind, but I'm leaving Boonmee for now.

76. POLAND has a strong slate this year, and a lot of quality films to choose from, mostly set during the “bad old days” of Communism. My guess is “Dark House”, on the basis of its strong reviews from audiences and critics alike. It’s a thriller/murder mystery telling two related stories (one in the 70s, one in the 80s) at a remote farm in the mountains of Poland. Two other films are going to be tough to beat; namely, “All That I Love”, an acclaimed youth drama about a teen punk band set against the background of the Solidarity Movement and “Little Rose”, about the uneducated moll of a high-ranking secret policeman who is sent to spy on a Jewish dissident writer. “Little Rose” should come second since it won the Gdynia Film Festival. Rounding out the top five films are “Mother Teresa of Cats”, about a gruesome case of matricide, and “Venice”, about a boy whose family trip to Venice gets derailed to the Polish countryside as a result of WWII. That said, Poland often likes to choose a film released right before the cutoff date, which means they could select a new film (“Teresa” is one of these) that I don’t know about. Other dark horses: “General Nil”, a bio-drama about an acclaimed general who fought against the Nazis and Communists (but which is supposed to be really boring), “Father, Son and Holy Cow”, a comedy about a farm animal with a taste for classical music and human trafficking drama “Between Two Fires”.

77. PORTUGAL, unlikely ALL of their fellow Western European nations (bar little Luxembourg, who has only been entering the competition since 1997) has never gotten an Oscar nomination, mostly because they send abstract, arty films that nobody likes, including Portuguese domestic audiences. Perhaps it’s because they were neutral during WWII and they don’t have any Holocaust movies. That will change this year with “The Consul of Bordeaux”- a Schindler's List-esque true story about the moral dilemma of a consul in neutral Portugal faced with Jewish refugees trying to escape to the New World. Unfortunately for Portugal, I think it won’t premiere in time...Maybe next year. This year, Portugal has the usual crop of obscure, abstract films. The highest-profile one is “The Strange Case of Angelica”, a surreal tale about a photographer hired to snap the final photos of a dead girl, directed by prolific 101-year old Manoel de Oliveira. He was selected five times in the 1990s, but only twice since then. Other Portuguese films with a chance: “Civil War”, about a shy boy at the beach in the 1980s, “How to Draw a Perfect Circle”, about incest among two rich siblings, “The Last Flight of the Flamingo”, about UN peacekeepers in Mozambique, “The Portuguese Nun”, about a French actress obsessed with a nun, “To Die Like A Man”, about the life and death of a transsexual, and “Twist of Fate”, about a cuckolded husband. My picks: the surprise selection of “To Die Like A Man”, which has gotten the best reviews, followed by “Angelica” and “The Portuguese Nun”.

78. PUERTO RICO is almost certain to choose “Maria”, an epic love story and a remake of a classic film. Set in the year 1800 amid lush plantations and Spanish colonial rule, it’s directed by the star of the 1970 version. Most Puerto Rican films this year seem to involve doomsday scenarios caused by zombies (“Barricada”, “Cannabis 2”) or disease (“Caos”). Dark horses: “The Orphanage Cafra”, which tells interlocking stories and “America”, a woman-in-jeopardy drama set in NYC and co-starring Edward James Olmos (though neither one may premiere before the deadline), as well as the aforementioned thriller “Caos”, which is probably the biggest film of the year.

79. ROMANIA, unlike almost all of its Eastern European cohorts, has never advanced to the next round. That said, the “Romanian New Wave” is hot on the festival circuit, and they have lots of good films. Their most likely choice this year is “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”, the Silver Bear winner at Berlinale. It’s about a juvenile delinquent about to be released from jail, who confronts the mother who he believes ruined his life. Reviews have been positive but divisive- I’m not sure it’s the best decision, but Romania usually picks the obvious choice. Also very likely: black comedy, “Medal of Honor”, about a senior citizen whose life changes in the post-Communist era when he wins a medal for service in WWII that he doesn’t remember earning. It’s opening on the last possible day in Romania. In third place: “Portrait of the Fighter as a Young Man”, a big-scale war drama about the resistance movement to the Communists. In fourth place: “Tuesday After Christmas”, about a man trying to choose between his long-time wife and his passionate mistress. In fifth: “Europolis”, about a woman and her son going to France to pick up an inheritance. Among the other possibilities: “Morgen” (Locarno), about a security guard who discovers an illegal Kurdish immigrant, “Aurora” (Cannes), a 3-hour film about a family living in a neighborhood with a serial killer, “Francesca” (Venice), about a woman emigrating to Italy, and the one I personally most want to see- “Hello! How Are You?”, Romania’s first romantic comedy in nearly twenty years, about two unhappily married people who unknowingly “meet each other” online. As for French-language “The Concert”, and “Katalin Varga”, directed by an Englishman, I think they’d prefer having a 100% Romanian effort.

80. RUSSIA - Russia’s nominee was long thought to be a shoo-in. “Burnt by the Sun 2” was a long-awaited, massively expensive production by Nikita Mikhalkov- one of Russia’s favorite directors (submitted four times) and one of Oscar’s favorite foreign directors (an astonishing two nominations and one win in this category) and it was the sequel to Russia’s last winning film in this category. Unfortunately, the film was a flop and nobody inside or outside Russia has many positive things to say about it. There’s a slight chance Russia may send it anyway, but odds are against it. The most popular movie of the year is probably “What Women Want”, a warmly received comedy about four buddies on a road trip, but the dour Russians usually want something with more pathos. I think the two top contenders are “How I Ended This Summer”,a psychological thriller about two men stationed alone on a remote island outpost in the remote Arctic region of Chukotka (and probably the biggest Russian hit on the festival circuit this year), and last year’s costume drama, “Tsar”, the epic story of Ivan the Terrible that I predicted last year, but which premiered too late in Russia to qualify. I hate making the same prediction twice...I’ll go for “Summer” this year.

SERBIA has no big films this year, but they have a good selection of smaller ones. I think they’ll choose “Woman with a Broken Nose”, a black comedy (the Serbs do these so well!) with pretty great reviews and an intriguing plot- it’s about how a woman’s attempted suicide affects three lives, and it stars two of the stars of the superb “The Trap”. Renowned director Goran Paskaljevic and his son, first-time director Vladimir- will compete with each other with two new films. Goran has been entered in the Oscar competition four times and now has “Honeymoons”, a topical story about an ethnic Serbian and ethnic Albanian couple who are both trying to emigrate to Italy. Son Vladimir has dramedy “Devil’s Town”, about intersecting lives in the capital Belgrade, which has been compared to Dad’s “Powder Keg”. In fact, many of the Serbian candidates feature a number of interlocking stories of strangers; that must say something psychological about the war-weary Serbians. This includes “White White World”, set in a decaying industrial town, and "Tilva Ros”, about life in a copper mining town (winner at Sarajevo). Two other films with a strong chance: “Besa”, about a Serb man with a Slovene wife and her forbidden romance with an Albanian friend of the family, and anti-war drama “The Enemy”, about a group of shell-shocked veterans. Top Five: “Nose”, followed by “Besa”, "Tilva Ros", “Honeymoon” and “Enemy”. Less likely but possible: “Early Frost”, the poetic story of life in the multi-ethnic province of Vojvodina (the only region in Yugoslavia that remains united with Serbia), “Motel Nana”, about a teacher whose life is turned upside down when he is accused of beating a student, “Montevideo, We Love You”, a World Cup drama set in 1930, and “Ordinary People”, an acclaimed war drama which would be a key contender but I think it was released last year. Real dark horses: a family wins the Green Card lottery in “Mamarosh” and two women switch roles in identity theft thriller “Marked”. Impossible: torture porn “Serbian Film”, referred to as Serbia’s answer to “Saw”.

82. SINGAPORE took last year off, but will probably return this year with “Sandcastle”, which played in a special section at Cannes. Though the film, about a young man questioning authority after learning about skeletons in the family closet, will likely court controversy, it was partially funded by the State film board and will get a domestic release in August, so its Cannes pedigree should get it an official nod. If it’s too controversial, you can expect them to choose jet-black comedy “Forever”, about the fine line between love and obsession. In third place: Tamil-language thriller “Gurushetram”. They have a good number of non-English language films this year, but violent action movies (“Kidnapper”) and silly comedies (“Happy Go Lucky”, “Old Cow, Bitter Grass”) need not apply.

83. SLOVAKIA held their bi-annual National Film Awards this year, but all the major nominees were eligible last year. This year, their most likely (only?) choice is “Flying Cyprian”, a big-budget (by local standards) film about an 18th century monk who develops a flying machine. Interestingly, Slovakia’s past two big-budget dramas (“Bathory” and “Janosik”) were passed up by the Slovak commtitee, but there was more competition those years. This year, the Slovaks have little to choose from- “Cyprian” opens July 29th and it’s the first domestic production released this year. Other upcoming possibilities (if they open): “English is Easy, Csaba is Dead”, a dark comedy about a mafia family trying to learn English from a kidnapped teacher, “Naty, or You Can’t Cheat Your Fate“, about an eccentric high-IQ teen, and “Former People”, about a famed 1960s murderess. Less likely: Gypsy drama “Indian Summer”, guardian angel fantasy “Angel Against His Own Will”.

84. SLOVENIA had a good film last year, that (somewhat surprisingly) got a well-deserved U.S. release. This year’s most likely nominee is “9:06”, a spare (71 minutes) psychological thriller about a Slovenian police inspector delving into the life of a mysterious suicide. It swept the Slovenian Film Awards last year winning almost every award. The directors of their 2003, 2005 and 2007 submissions all have new films out- “Circus Fantasticus” is a drama with no dialogue about a man whose wife is killed during the Yugoslav wars, “Personal Baggage” is a drama about a middle-class family, and “Slovenian Girl” (which was just picked up for a US release through Film Movement), is about a young, educated student who moonlights as a hooker. “9:06” handily defeated its main competitor ("Slovenian Girl") at the Film Awards, and probably will do the same with the Oscar committee.

85. SOUTH AFRICA's choice is almost certain to be mother-daughter AIDS tearjerker “Life, Above All”. Filmed in the obscure Northern Sotho language (also known as Sepedi), it was one of the most talked about films in Cannes (it got a 10-minute standing ovation and better reviews than Palme d’Or winner “Uncle Boonmee”) and is a very likely Oscar nominee. “Tembra” (in Xhosa), a football drama about a young village boy, should get the nod if “Life” doesn’t open in time. Unlikely: “Shirley Adams”, a heartbreaking drama about a mother taking care of her newly paralyzed 20-year old son, probably has too much English to qualify, and romantic comedy “I Now Pronounce You Black and White“ is out of its league.

86. SPAIN has less contenders this year than most of the other large European countries. Spain’s format is to choose their submission out of three finalists. My predictions for this shortlist are “Amador”, “Even the Rain” and “Lope”. “Amador”’s director was chosen once (for “Mondays in the Sun”) over Almodovar, and is a story of a young woman (the star of “Milk of Sorrow”) working as caregiver for an old man. “Even the Rain” is a movie about the voyages of Christopher Columbus, starring Gael Garcia Bernal. “Lope” is the biography of a famed Spanish playwright, which co-stars Brazilian actress Sonia Braga. Challengers for the shortlist include “Julia’s Eyes”, a much-awaited horror film that would be a strong contender except that (a)- “The Orphanage” was ignored by Oscar and (b)- it’s currently scheduled to be released after the deadline, and “Cell 911”, a box-office smash hit and Best Picture winner at last year’s Goya Awards. It appears eligible as it was released after October 1, 2009 in Spain. “Mosquito Net”, winner at Karlovy Vary in 2010, about a woman with Alzheimers, is also a potential threat. Bottom line: The cliquey Spanish Academy likes experienced directors that they know and like; they’ve only chosen a debut director once in the past 25 years, making things difficult for “Rain”, and I don’t believe they’ve ever chosen a foreign director, making things tricky for “Lope”’s Andrucha Waddington. That leaves “Amador” getting the nod.

87. SRI LANKA sent a film for the second time last year and it was about the recently ended civil war. In that vein, I predict they’ll send “Under the Sun and Moon”, about a soldier haunted by memories of an incident in which he was unable to save his commanding officer. Other choices: “Whirlwind”, the life story of a coffin-maker from a dysfunctional family, “Solitude in a Valley” about an artist whose paintings are somehow related to his dreams, and “Thank You, Come Again”, about a veteran soldier looking after his sick father.

88. SWEDEN has had a weak year. The Swedish nominee is chosen by the Guldbagge Awards jury, and “The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” and its two fellow Best Picture nominees are not eligible due to early release dates. (The Swedes are probably kicking themselves for not choosing the Guldbagge winner “Tattoo”, which has turned into a major international hit, when it was eligible last year). This year, a trio of films have an equal shot to represent the Swedes. Although they look interesting, none of them look good enough to compete for an Oscar. Two of the films co-star Tuva Novotny- “The Wedding Photographer”, a comedy-drama about an unemployed photographer who is hired to shoot a high-society wedding; it got decent reviews and was a box-office success , and “Dear Alice”, a movie about racial tensions in modern-day Stockholm, co-starring Danny Glover as a Gambian immigrant. There’s also the upcoming “Trust Me”, a comedy about a group of people working at a theatre. My prediction: “Trust Me” gets a surprise nod, with “Alice” in second and the “Photographer” in third. In fourth: “Nasty Old People” a dramedy about a neo-Nazi nurse working in an old folk’s home (!). Dark horses: “Sebbe”, a harrowing drama about an impoverished youth with special powers, “Simple Simon”, about a kid with Asperger’s Syndrome and “Easy Money”, a youth-oriented thriller. Less likely: “The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest”, the third part in the series, arthouse murder drama “The Ape”, and upcoming supernatural thriller “Psalm 21”. Trivia: Sweden (along with Spain) is the only Western European country never to choose a film directed by a woman.

89. SWITZERLAND has no high-profile films in the spotlight this year, which is not to say that they don’t have any good ones. “Bright on Black”, an intriguing “suicide romance” starring Bruno Ganz, would be my pick, but I don’t expect it will be released in time. That leaves two dysfunctional family dramas set amidst the Swiss Alps as their front-runners: “Animal Heart” (in French), the surprise winner at this year’s Swiss Film Awards, about an abusive husband and his wife, and the soon to be released “Songs of Love and Hate” (in German) about a precocious teen girl whose sexual awakening raises hell amidst the family, and which will compete for the Grand Prize in Locarno. In third place: “Hugo Koblet” (in French), a biopic about a celebrated Swiss cyclist. In fourth: “Accomplices”, a murder mystery about the death of a teen boy and the disappearance of his girlfriend (it lost to “Heart” at the Swiss Oscars). In fifth: “La Petite Chambre”, about the relationship between an elderly man and his nurse. Less likely: “Murder Farm” (another murder mystery), “Little Paradise”, about a mentally challenged woman who falls for an older man and “Taxiphone”, about a Swiss couple submersed in Moroccan culture when their car breaks down in the desert. Out of the running: after three failed submissions, Switzerland has rightfully fallen out of love with Jean-Luc Godard, but his latest exercise in self-indulgent faux-art, “Socialism”, didn’t open in Swiss cinemas anyway. My prediction: “Animal Heart” by a snout.

90. TAIWAN's biggest film “Seediq Bale” isn’t finished yet, but they still have a good field of potential submissions this year. In fact, their local film industry is doing quite well. The two big contenders this year are “Au Revoir, Taipei”, a fun romantic comedy cum crime caper that leaves its audience smiling, and box-office smash “Monga”, about juvenile gangs in 1980s Taiwan. Both of these films were shocked to be beaten by upstart documentary “Let the Wind Carry Me” at the 2010 Taipei Film Festival, but I don’t think this analysis of a local cinematographer will repeat here. The Audience Award at the Festival went to dark horse “Taipei Exchanges”, (which one reviewer calls a Taiwanese "Amelie”), about a young coffee addict working in a café. Other dark horse contenders: “Hear Me”, about the romance between a young man and a deaf girl, “Seven Days in Heaven”, a black comedy about a number of characters at a funeral, and four movies by previously submitted directors- “Tears”, about a detective seeking redemption, “How are You, Dad?”, ten short films about father-child relationships, “Uma 2010”, which has no information online, and “Face” the latest art film from Tsai Ming-liang, set in Paris and with mostly poor reviews. My predictions: “Au Revoir” gets the nod, followed by “Monga” and “Tears”, with “Taipei Exchanges” and “Hear Me” rounding out the Top Five.

91. TAJIKISTAN's latest film, “True Noon” was released last year (I’ve heard very good things about it), and their next-known film “Waiting for the Sea”, by the director of the delightful “Luna Papa”, is in pre-production. Also, I’ve heard that the last cinema in the capital was closed. So all-in-all, it’s unlikely Tajikistan can participate this year.

92. TANZANIA submitted a film once in 2001. This year, they have two movies produced by expatriate filmmakers- “Memories of a Burning Tree”, a drama in Swahili made by a Singaporean director about a man on a quest to find his mother’s grave, and “Lovely Gamble”, a super low-budget film made by Tanzanian-Britons. Tanzania will almost certainly skip this year, but “Burning Tree” could be chosen.



93. THAILAND's National Film Board does not like Apichatpong Weerasethakul, and they now face a dilemma. Should they choose the first-ever Thai winner of the Palme d’Or- “Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives”- to represent them at the Oscars? On one hand, the always pragmatic Thais may see this as their best-ever chance of winning a nomination in a competition that they’ve been entering without success since 1984. Unlike many of his other films, “Boonmee” had no trouble with the Thai censors and it received a theatrical release at home where it has been more or less well-received. On the other hand, Thailand usually prefers commercial films rather than arthouse, and red-eyed monkey ghosts aren’t necessarily going to bring Thailand an Oscar nomination even with a Palme d’Or in hand. Apichatpong has previously won two major awards at Cannes (for “Blissfully Yours” and “Tropical Malady”), but Thailand’s Academy ignored them, and there’s a fair bit of internal competition coming from the two big films at this year’s Thai Oscars (Best Picture winner “October Sonata” and Best Director winner, the serial killer thriller “Slice”) , as well as three expensive period epics that each took years to make (8th century “Edge of the Empire”, 18th century “Bangrajan 2”, and the 800-pound gorilla, 16th century “King Naresuan III”). In the end, I think the race will come down to three films- (A) “Uncle Boonmee”, (B) “October Sonata”, a sad romantic drama about star-crossed lovers set in the turbulent 1970s, and (C) “King Naresuan III, directed by Prince Chatrichalerm Yukol who has represented Thailand a record four times (Thailand nominated Part II in 2007) and reportedly the most expensive Thai film ever made. I’m torn...I’m predicting “Boonmee”, but I have a feeling I’m wrong.

94. TUNISIA has sent two films since 1995. They have two promising films this year- "Buried Secrets" and "The String"- but I'm not sure either will inspire them to send it in. "Secrets", by the director of "Satin Rouge", about three female squatters in a long-abandoned house, is the more likely of the two. "String", a drama about a middle aged gay son returning home from abroad to live with his fabulous mother (60s film star Claudia Cardinale) would probably be received better than the quiet artiness of "Secrets" but I doubt that even a liberal Arab country like Tunisia would want a gay-themed film to represent them!

95. TURKEY 's film industry is doing well, although their biggest hits are comedies and horror movies made purely for entertainment and not awards. No less than nine films are potential Oscar submissions this year, although the two most likely are “Breath”, an anti-war film about the psychological terror experienced by an outpost of 40 Turkish soldiers defending against a Kurdish attack, and “Honey”, the winner of Berlinale 2010 about a young boy whose father is a beekeeper. The two biggest possible spoilers are “Two-Way Switch”, a black comedy about a man trying to murder his wife (winner of the Istanbul Film Festival and oft compared to the Coen Brothers), and “Kosmos”, a dreamy, arthouse film (winner of Anatolia and Yerevan Film Festivals). Rounding out the Top Five is “Children of Diyarbakir”, a movie about two Kurdish orphans who meet the man who murdered their parents. The other four- “Envy” (family intrigue), “Men on the Bridge” (experimental), “On the Way to School” (Turkish teacher teaching cute Kurdish kids) and cross-cultural pseudo-romance “The Wrong Rosary”- probably won’t be able to make it, but the Turks can be unpredictable. My prediction: “Honey” won a major award, but “Breath” is a bigger film...I’m really not sure, but will choose box-office hit “Breath”

96. UKRAINE is not accustomed to being seen on the film festival circuit, so their Cannes competitor “My Joy”, a nihilistic, depressing road movie set in provincial Russia, should be enough to spur Ukraine’s return to the competition after a one-year hiatus. The only other films on the radar are Kira Muratova’s “Melody for a Barrel Organ”, a three-hour allegorical tale featuring a pair of lost children and “Day of the Defeated”, about Communist authorities intervening in a woman’s funeral. Ukraine has never gone for one of Muratova’s films before, so I think “Joy” is safe.

The 97. UNITED KINGDOM is going to have the same predictions as last year, since the two films I predicted didn’t premiere in time. Most of their Oscar submissions have been in Welsh, as is my prediction- “Patagonia”- a wide-scale movie about a real-life Welsh community that emigrated to the wilds of Argentina. I’m pretty sure that it will be the nominee, but there’s also “She A Chinese” about illegal Chinese immigrants in England, and “Pusher”, a Hindi-language crime drama set in London.


98. URUGUAY has a small film industry, yet they always seem to have a difficult decision at Oscar time. This year’s race (like last year) boils down to two films- “Hiroshima”, another of the minimalist wry dramas that Uruguay is famous for, and “Leo’s Room”, a gay coming-out story. It will be a hard decision- “Hiroshima” is directed by Pablo Stoll, one of Uruguay’s most accomplished young directors, and this is his first film since the suicide of his longtime co-director Juan Pablo Rebella. The movie, about an aspiring singer, has gotten mixed reviews...definitely not as good as “Leo’s Room”, which co-stars Cesar Troncoso, who has co-starred in almost every Uruguayan submission ever. Single-take horror flick “The Silent House” has its admirers, but won’t factor in. I’m not sure what they’ll do. Both directors are thirty-something and will have a chance to be selected again in the future. Gay rights in Uruguay are moving forward pretty quickly. I’m guessing the Uruguayans go with the superior “Leo”.

99. VENEZUELA‘s films rarely ever win awards, and a recent trend of making films that conform to Chavista political dogma has not helped the quality of national filmmaking. They should choose “Hermano”, the winner of the Grand Prize at the Moscow Film Festival, and the most acclaimed Venezuelan film in years, but I’m not sure if this football/family revenge drama of two “brothers” from the slums has the appropriate revolutionary credentials to rep Venezuela. Most of the films I predicted last year did not open until late 2009/2010, including big-scale historical dramas “Zamora” and “ Taita Boves”. Both of these films are definitely Chavez-friendly (both are true stories about revolting against the wealthy upper-class), as is “Habana Eve”, a romantic comedy set in Cuba, and are all by previously submitted directors, as is “Unauthorized”, an arty drama by Elia Schneider. I’m predicting “Hermano”, but think that one of the expensive historical movies could easily slip in, especially “Taita Boves”.

100. VIETNAM has had a strong year, and I predict they choose lavish period drama “Heroes of the Tay Son Dynasty”, an 18th century dramatization about a peasant rebellion that defeated the Chinese. It will be a good opportunity to show that the Vietnamese can make the same sort of big period battle movies that the big guys (i.e. China, Japan, Korea and Thailand) can do. Two arthouse movies will provide stiff competition, especially “Bi, Don’t Be Afraid”, about a boy and his grandfather (Cannes 2010), but also from erotic drama “Adrift” (FIPRESCI Winner; Venice 2009), although it didn’t impress too many people at the National Film Awards. Upcoming releases “Inferno” (a very stylish-looking thriller) and “Endless Field” (about rural life) could make it if they’re really, really good, but probably face too much competition. FYI: The winner of the 2010 Golden Kite Awards is not eligible (“Don’t Burn”, which represented the Vietnamese last year).

SIX POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
Last year, for the first time since 1988, no new countries entered the competition. Most sizeable countries (outside of Africa) have already sent a film at least once, although there are a few more that could send their first film this year. The oil-rich Gulf states have begun sponsoring film production, film festivals and television series in a region where little or none existed before. Aside from two Kuwaiti films in the 1970s, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula have never entered. Most likely to enter a film this year is the most visible country in the region- the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES- which could send “City of Life”, which tells three stories (one in Arabic, one in English, one in Hindi) about the underside of glitzy Dubai. The trailer looks very interesting and it was a box-office hit at home, although some Emiratis have criticized it for showing an unfavorable picture of the image-conscious city. 24 of the EU's 27 members submit films on a more-or-less regular basis, and Ireland has submitted a single film. That leaves tiny CYPRUS and MALTA as the typical truants from EU Film Festivals the world over. The South Cyprus government (which controls the EU seat) has devoted money to film, and will almost certainly send a movie sooner or later.....This year, they have "Guilt, about the nightmares of a Cypriot arms dealer. It was co-sponsored by the Ministry of Culture, the premiere was attended by the Cypriot President, and it got a Best Pic nomination at the Greek Film Awards. MALTA has a potential candidate in " Kont Diga' ", billed as Malta's first-ever independent film, about an emigre who returns to his home country after many years abroad. The most likely new country to submit from the Americas is not a “nation” at all...The vast, autonomous province of GREENLAND may try to send “Nuumioq”, set amid the island's beautiful fjords, about a terminally ill man falling in love. Greenland may try and take this step as one of many to gradually assert independence from Denmark. PANAMA could submit for the first time with comedy “Chance”, about two maids who decide to wage war against the stuck-up aristocratic family they work for. Supposedly based on a true story, it looks quite funny (although not Oscary). From Eastern Europe, newly-independent MONTENEGRO is this year's most likely debutante for the government co-sponored "Little Love God", about a Macedonian living in the Montenegrin capital, whose life turns upside down when his wife disappears, his bank goes bankrupt and the police confiscate his passport.

Less likely: Earthquake-scarred HAITI has “Moloch Tropical”, about political intrigue and misrule in the country but the Haitian premiere was delayed (canceled?) due to the earthquake. KOSOVO may challenge the Academy to define a country once again (it's not a UN member due to protests from Russia, Serbia and others), with "Beyond the Road", one of the first feature films since the region gained de facto independence in 2008. It's a digital film about a man in some sort of a purgatory. BAHRAIN has “Longing” (Haneen), the country’s eighth feature film (how funny to come from a country where you can count on two hands!)- a meditation of the relationship between two families- one Sunni, one Shi’ite. QATAR’s first-ever feature film, “Clockwise” (Aqaribabzah) is a horror-thriller about djinns (aka genies). ANGOLA, whose oil-based economy is booming, has “Bullets and Guns”, a parody of the popular local gangsta' films, which apparently began being churned out after the local success of “City of God”. MOZAMBIQUE has Portuguese co-production "The Last Flight of the Flamingo (See PORTUGAL). From Asia, there's UZBEKISTAN, which produces a few dozen films each year, including “Narigi Sohilda Qolgan Bolalik”, about life in a village over a 70-year period. NORTH KOREA sent a rare film to the Moscow film festival- “Notes of a Woman Soldier”, a propaganda film about a woman who realizes the value of serving her country while in a remote outpost, and MACAU has a rare film in “Roulette City”, about a man who comes to the city-state to raise money for his mother’s operation.