2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Asia (16 Films)

Oscar has little taste for Asia, but many people are saying this could be their year! With IRAN's engrossing drama "A Separation" the deserved frontrunner for the award, films from CHINA, ISRAEL, JAPAN, LEBANON and TURKEY are also being talked about for potential nominations....In reality, I think only two of these have a good chance (see below) as does the dark horse from HONG KONG....But in a relatively weak year, it's anybody's game.

NO CHANCE IN HELL:
16. KAZAKHSTAN- "Returning to the A"
15. INDONESIA- "Under the Protection of the Ka'bah"
14. THAILAND- "Kon Khon"
13. SINGAPORE- "Tatsumi"

Better luck next year to four of my favorite countries...Once again, I applaud all of them for entering the competition (especially Singapore, which makes a lot of fun films and which is returning to the competition after a two-year absence) and getting their films seen in Hollywood.

INDONESIA and THAILAND have chosen visually rich period dramas that did not get particularly good reviews at home. In fact, both have been dismissed as little more than soap operas..."Under the Protection of the Ka'bah" is based on an acclaimed novel and set in 1920s Sumatra. With a budget of nearly 3 million US dollars (high by local standards), "Ka'bah" took nearly three years to make. It sounds impressive on paper but this religious melodrama about a poor boy who falls in love with a rich girl and dreams of a pilgrimage to Mecca (also a theme in the Indian submission) got mixed reviews even in Indonesia. THAILAND (where I used to live) has chosen a film set in the 1960s focusing on the rivalry of two traditional "khon" dance troupes. "Kon Khon" was a box-office flop in Thailand and got mixed reviews. Even the Ministry of Culture is under no illusions about the film's Oscar chances, saying that it was selected for its ability to promote Thai culture through cinema (which it does through lovely performances of Thai "khon" dance). For a good review of Thailand's submissions over the years see the following article from CNN. http://www.cnngo.com/bangkok/life/thailands-18-oscar-picks-its-all-about-culture-260964

KAZAKHSTAN 's film, a 3D action movie about a documentary film crew getting into trouble in modern-day Afghanistan, looks like a total mess. The trailer looks like a straight-to-video 80s action movie and I don't think it has played at a single international film festival. The Kazakhs usually send good movies to the competition and expect them to be in the running next year with expensive period epic "Myn Bala".

Unlike the other three, SINGAPORE's film has actually managed to get good reviews...However, it doesn't pass the mainstream test. A Japanese-language homage to an obscure Japanese comic book artist, this graphic animated film recreates scenes from Yoshihiro Tatsumi's life as well as some of his most disturbing stories. I look forward to seeing it (more so than the other three) but it's simply too weird and not what Oscar goes for....

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY


12. TAIWAN- "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow"
11. VIETNAM- "The Prince and the Pagoda Boy"
10. PHILIPPINES- "The Woman in the Septic Tank"
9. KOREA- "The Front Line"

The Asian countries love to send in historical epics, which is what KOREA, TAIWAN and VIETNAM have done this year. Historical epics are always risky...On the one hand, they tend to have big budgets and impressive technical features...On the other, they often depend on knowing local history and, in Asia especially, often double as action movies with lots of blood and battlefield scenes.

TAIWAN's "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow" is sure to alienate Oscar voters with its 4-hour, 25-minute running time and its rampant bloody beheadings. While it was a big hit in its native Taiwan, this film about aboriginal groups fighting against cultural annihilation during the early 20th century Japanese occupation of the island has not been warmly embraced by Western critics. The Hollywood Reporter complimented the period look, but said that non-stop fighting was "tedious" (and they screened an abridged 2 1/2 hour version!!)

VIETNAM's "Prince and the Pagoda Boy" (originally called "Thang Long Aspiration") is about a 9th century battle over the royal succession, filled with lovely costumes and lots of martial arts fighting. The Vietnamese are clearly trying to emulate recent Chinese period epics. There's very little information on the film online but the one Western review I saw was largely negative.

SOUTH KOREA has a better shot with "The Front Line", a box-office hit drama about the closing days of the Korean War when both North and South were trying to make last-minute territorial gains in anticipation of a permanent ceasefire. I just bought it on ebay and am now waiting for it to arrive. Oscar has never gone for Korean films before (not even the great Korean War drama "Taegukgi"), and I think this film will strike Oscar voters as little more than a well-done action movie...not an Oscar nominee.

THE PHILIPPINES haven't chosen an epic at all...They've chosen another comedy (their third in six years), this one lampooning independent filmmaking in the Philippines. "The Woman in the Septic Tank" is a tongue-in-cheek movie about Filipino producers trying to make an Oscar-winning picture. To do that, they enlist an A-list actress (Eugene Domingo, playing a parody of herself) to play an impoverished Filipino woman whose life is falling apart, which indeed is what most Filipino films on the Film Fest circuit tend to be about! The film was a big hit and is said to be very clever, but probably has too much silliness and too many in-jokes to make a dent here. Hopefully it will entertain the committee....I think it looks great!

FAIRLY DARK HORSES-

8. INDIA- "Abu, Son of Adam"
7. TURKEY- "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"
6. JAPAN- "Postcard"
5. LEBANON- "Where Do We Go Now?"

All of these films will have their supporters, but lack a fundamental element in getting to the next round. From two of the Middle East's most cosmopolitan centers, LEBANON and TURKEY are often cited as among this year's favorites. Nuri Bilge Ceylan's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" won the Jury Prize at Cannes, and Ceylan's "Three Monkeys" was shortlisted three years ago. Nadine Labaki's "Where Do We Go Now" won the People's Choice Award in Toronto, joining a series of films that went on to win Best Foreign Film (Antonia's Line, Life is Beautiful, Crouching Tiger and Tsotsi) and even Best Picture (American Beauty, King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire).

I think both films face an uphill battle....LEBANON's film is a comedy-drama based on the Lysistrata about Christian and Muslim women using sex to control their menfolk in a bitterly sectarian town. Toronto award notwithstanding, "Where" has actually gotten fairly unspectacular reviews, with some questioning whether it truly deserved the prize. It may be too lightweight although, as I keep saying, it's a weak year for foreign film. TURKEY's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" is wowing auteur critics, but this slow, plotless film about a team looking for a corpse in rural Turkey is said to be a hard slog to get through. The Hollywood Reporter jokes that it takes 90 minutes before the film has its first plot point. The film sounds just awful (I hated Ceylan's "Distant", although "3 Monkeys" was better) but it does have a small chance of being selected by the Elite Committee (which they probably did with "Three Monkeys"). A real dark horse.

The films from INDIA and JAPAN have been well-received at home, but have not won any major awards outside their home countries. Both are said to be good films but lack the gravitas to advance to the next round. INDIA's "Abu, Son of Adam" is about a poor, elderly Muslim couple from Kerala (Southwest India) who dream of making a pilgrimage to Mecca before they die. JAPAN's "Postcard" is a semi-autobiographical film set in post-World War II Japan, when a soldier returns to his hometown to deliver a letter to the wife of a late soldier. Both films have wonderful backstories...."Abu" is a low-budget film that managed to beat hundreds of big-budget Hindi-language blockbusters to win Best Picture at the National Film Awards and grab the country's Oscar nod..."Postcard" is directed by a 99-year old respected director (and WWII veteran) who has said this will be his final film. In the end, both films are said to be overly sentimental (is that good or bad with the large committee) and appeal to local tastes and history. I simply don't have faith they can make it to the next round.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES:

4. HONG KONG- "A Simple Life"
3. ISRAEL- "Footnote"
2. CHINA- "Flowers of War"

I think that at least one of these films will be able to climb above the pack and join the Iranians on the shortlist...But which one? CHINA's 90 million dollar blockbuster "The Flowers of War" about the Rape of Nanjing from the perspective of an American man, looks great and is directed by Zhang Yimou. It's also one of only two Oscar submissions to get a Golden Globe nomination, which are a pretty good pre-cursor (although not all the Oscar submissions were eligible). Add to that its WWII plotline and its comforting amount (40%) of English dialogue, and the film looks like a good bet. Having said that, US reviews for "War" have been decidely mixed. I've predicted that Chinese "spectacle" would impress the Oscar committee before ("Curse of the Golden Flower", "Aftershock") but have been wrong every time. I still think "Flowers" has a good shot, but it could come in tenth place due to....

ISRAEL. The Israelis have done exceptionally well in recent years with an impressive three back-to-back nominations from 2008-2010. "Footnote", is the story of a bitter father-son rivalry in the world of Jewish Talmudic religious studies. It won Best Screenplay at Cannes, and has been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics. "Footnote" really does not sound like an exciting film, but reviews have been fairly strong overall. Howeverm, the film definitely has detractors who point out that the extremely esoteric subject matter will make the film a hard sell to many viewers. I think Israel may well be the "bubble" film fighting for 9th or 10th place.

No director from HONG KONG has ever been nominated in this category. Both of Hong Kong's Foreign Oscar nominations were films made by Mainland Chinese directors (Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige) working in Mainland China. Starring two of Hong Kong's most well-regarded actors, "A Simple Life" is the story of the lifelong relationship between a man (Andy Lau) and his aging "a-mah" (nanny; Deannie Yip). Despite winning Best Actress in Venice, this "small" film has not been talked about very much, but I think it has an excellent chance to appeal to the larger Oscar committee. Reviews have been overwhelmingly positive (although not universally excellent) and this is the sort of sentimental film that Oscar usually goes for. Good luck to Hong Kong.

1. IRAN- "Nader & Simin: A Separation"

For all the strategizing and campaigning, the best way to get nominated for an Oscar is still to make a great film that everybody recognizes is a great film. Asghar Farhadi has done that with "A Separation".

I won't gush about the film because so many people have said it all already. The film is a mystery, a thriller, a family drama, a love story gone wrong and, perhaps most importantly, a window into modern Iranian life. Just go and see "A Separation", and let's hope it gets nominated for Best Screenplay as well. I don't believe a film can ever be a lock for the win (maybe "Crouching Tiger", which charmed the US in a very weak year for foreign films), but if the large committee ignores it (and they've ignored great films before), the elite committee will be sure to save it. It's on the Shortlist.

On a sidenote, it will be interesting to see if the Iranians try to withdraw "A Separation" if Israel is nominated alongside it...I know they have rules in the Olympics about not competing directly against Israel. Anyway, it won't matter because AMPAS will surely refuse to withdraw the film (CHINA tried unsuccessfully to withdraw "Ju Dou" two decades ago) and "Separation" will likely win.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 31

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: None that I'm aware of....

Number of countries opting out: 15, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and Palestine. The others have only ever submitted once or twice in Oscar history (Bhutan, Cambodia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan) or haven't submitted in over two decades (Kuwait and Pakistan).

The most surprising absentee from Asia is clearly BANGLADESH, which has sent films for six years in a row, and which had two major releases this year ("Runway" and "Guerilla") that could have represented the country with honor. Not sure why they skipped....I also expected that either IRAQ would send "Qarantina" or JORDAN would send "Fish Above Sea Level". I had also hoped that CAMBODIA ("Lost Loves") and PAKISTAN ("Bol") would return after long absences, but apparently there's nobody there interested in forming a committee and filling out the paperwork. Expect the Palestinians to be back in contention next year with "Habibie".

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Four strong films and three outside dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 15 in 16 films- Arabic, Cantonese, Farsi, Filipino, Hebrew, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Malayalam, Mandarin, Russian, Seediq, Thai, Turkish, Vietnamese. Interestingly, Japanese is the most-represented language (Japan, Singapore and half of Taiwan's film). China's film is roughly 45% in English.

Highest profile film: It's a toss-up between Zhang Yimou's "Flowers of War", starring Christian Bale (China) and "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran), which has been receiving accolades worldwide, including the Golden Bear in Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Iran.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Kazakhstan's 3D action movie, "Returning to the A"

Number of Comedies: Two. Lebanon and the Philippines

Number of Animated Films: One, from Singapore.

Number of Documentaries or Horror Films: None, although Taiwan's features a whole lot of realistic beheading.

Oscar History: Two Oscar nominees are in the mix- China's Zhang Yimou has been nominated for an Oscar three times ("Hero" and "Ju Dou", representing China and "Raise the Red Lantern", representing Hong Kong), plus four other times in which he was chosen to rep China.....And Israel's Joseph Cedar, who is representing Israel for the fourth time, including one nomination for "Beaufort".

Six other directors have represented their countries in the Oscar race before- Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey, "Distant" and the shortlisted "Three Monkeys"), Asghar Farhadi (Iran, "About Elly"), Ann Hui (Hong Kong, "Ordinary Heroes", "Summer Snow"), Eric Khoo (Singapore, "My Magic, the disqualified "Be With Me") Nadine Labaki (Lebanon, "Caramel") and Wei Te-Sheng (Taiwan, "Cape No. 7)

Japan and Taiwan are the only countries to have won a Foreign Oscar award. China, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have all been nominated (though the HK nominees were for Mainland China productions), and Turkey has made the 9-film shortlist once before. The other seven, including Korea and the Philippines which have sent films for decades, have had no luck so far.

Number of Female Directors: Two- Hong Kong's Ann Hui and Lebanon's Nadine Labaki.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Japan's Kaneto Shindo will celebrate his 100th birthday in April, likely making him the oldest director EVER in this competition (Portugal's Manoel de Oliveira and his "Belle Toujours" were selected when he was a mere 98). He says "Postcard" will be his last film. There are no really young Asian directors in the mix....Youngest is South Korea's Jang Hun, who is 36.

Familiar Faces: Oscar-winning actor Christian Bale, who plays the lead role in China's "Flowers of War", is obviously the biggest name in the competition, with Hong Kong superstar Andy Lau ("A Simple Life") a distant second. "Flowers" co-stars Paul Schneider (Parks & Recreation), while "Simple Life" features cameos by Sammo Hung and Anthony Wong.

The cast of Japan's "Postcard" may not be well-known, but its five leading cast members have accumulated 33 Japanese Oscar nominations for acting.

Lior Ashkenazi (Israel), Sorapong Chatree (Thailand), Eugene Domingo (Philippines), Vivian Hsu (Taiwan), Nadine Labaki (Lebanon), Shin Ha-kyun (Korea) and Deannie Yip (Hong Kong) are fairly well-known in their respective countries.

Tough Choices: "The Outrage" from Thailand apparently was close to being chosen, but the Thais didn't want to choose a remake (of Oscar winner "Rashomon") over an original film.

Other films that appear to have just missed the cut included "Restoration" (Israel), "Dhobi Ghat: Mumbai Diaries" (India), "The Yellow Sea" (South Korea), which were all officially shortlisted. Also, "Let the Bullets Fly" (China), "1911" (Hong Kong) and "Norwegian Wood" (Japan).

Controversies and Changes: Some grumbled that "Flowers of War" was nearly 50% in English, making it a questionable pick for "Best Foreign Language Film", but most people seem satisfied since it is mostly in Chinese.

There potentially could have been a controversy from Iran..."Nader & Simin: A Separation" was originally announced by Iranian news agencies as the country's Oscar nominee, but these stories were deleted from the web a few days later and a "shortlist" of films was announced, leading some to believe that the controversial film by a director who has criticized the government was going to be replaced by a less politically sensitive choice. In the end, the Iranians selected "A Separation" anyway and the country will likely benefit by grabbing their first Oscar!

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 5- Indonesia, Iran, Lebanon, Singapore and Taiwan. I predicted the films from India, Israel, Korea, Turkey and Vietnam as alternates. China and Hong Kong didn't exactly play fair, since they chose films that opened in late 2011, but which had one-week qualifying runs specifically to compete for an Oscar....

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the brilliant "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran; A), but I'm dying to see "The Woman in the Septic Tank" (Philippines) based on the hilarious trailer.

Last year's race: I saw 13 of last year's 17 Asian nominees....Japan's brilliant "Confessions" was without a doubt the best, while Thailand's Cannes-winning mess "Uncle Boonmee" was the worst one I saw....I'll see a fourteenth- Turkey's "Bal"- soon.

NEXT UP: The 16 films from the Rest of the World, namely The Americas, Africa and Oceania.

Recap: My Views on Last Year's Foreign Oscar Race

Now that we have the official 2012 list, let’s take a look back at last year…..One of the problems with following this category is that most of us don’t get a chance to see the films until a year or so later! This year, I saw 50 of the 66 eligible films. I think the Academy picked mostly good films to be nominated, but they ignored the best ones (as usual). So here’s my chance to let the world know my opinions before we all start predicting next year’s race...

It’s difficult to do a ranking like this…..Of course, the great movies go to the top and the bad movies go to the bottom...But what about well-made films that I didn’t like (France’s “Of Gods and Men”)? Should they go higher or lower than mediocre films that were fun to watch (Korea’s “Barefoot Dream”)?

The American Academy chose nine films for their shortlist….I should note that I’ve only seen eight of these...I never got around to seeing Mexico’s grueling “Biutiful” (the DVD is sitting in my house), but I did see all the other major contenders.


MY OSCAR WINNER: JAPAN, “Confessions”- Hell hath no fury like a Japanese woman scorned...Revenge thriller “Confessions” surprised a lot of people by making the 9-film shortlist, and it amazes me that an entire committee of people could see this intricate, tightly-plotted masterpiece and toss it aside for the likes of a well-made but forgettable film like “Outside the Law”...”Confessions” centers on a Junior High School teacher’s revenge plot against the two students whom she holds responsible for the death of her young daughter. Admittedly, it’s not an easy film to watch. However, my Japanese friends and I barely breathed during the two-hour running time...Tetsuya Nakashima (director of my favorite Japanese film, “Memories of Matsuko”) keeps the twists and turns coming and just when you think you understand everything, you find out how little you actually do. I’d like to say more, but anything else would ruin the plot. This film won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Japanese Oscars and really should have been honored by the American Academy. (Available on English-subtitled DVD in Hong Kong, and via Ebay, Yesasia and other sites) Grade: A

MY RUNNER-UP: PERU, “Contracorriente” (Undertow)- A married man with a loving wife and a brand-new baby in a coastal community in macho Peru is having a secret homosexual affair with a handsome artist from the capital. This alone would be an intriguing plot for a film but Contracorriente defies your expectations by going for a sad ghost story rather than a soapy melodrama. The writers skillfully maintain maximum conflict and suspense without casting anyone as the villain. You sympathize with all three characters in the love-triangle, understanding that there can be no happy ending for everyone but wondering if there can be one for anyone. That said, there’s plenty of humor and whimsy and a satisfying conclusion. I loved the movie when I saw it, but I loved it even more the next day, since I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Peru is two-for-two with quality gay dramas…Also see 1998’s “Don’t Tell Anyone”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

MY OTHER NOMINEES: (3rd Place) GEORGIA, “Street Days”- Georgia’s Street Days proves that you can make a great film with no money, as long as you have strong actors and a strong script. Checkie is a kind-hearted but aimless middle-aged junkie living in post-Communist Georgia. His long-suffering ex-wife barely has enough money to pay for schoolbooks for their son. While Checkie has failed in life, several of his school classmates have done exceedingly well, which leads him into a tragic moral dilemma. A group of corrupt cops blackmail him to either set up a wealthy ex-classmate’s teenage son with drugs (whereupon they’ll blackmail his rich father), or go to jail. A fascinating character study that deserves a wider release. Grade: A-

(4th Place) TAIWAN, “Monga”- I became a gangster because of a chicken leg. This doesn’t sound like an auspicious beginning for a movie. I hate gangster movies, and when I heard that this film wasn’t even Taiwan’s first choice for the Oscars (Hear Me was selected but it turned out that film had fibbed about its premiere date) I almost didn’t even bother seeing Monga. That would have been a mistake because this is a visually inventive, bloody, sad, roller-coaster ride of a movie. Despite a clichéd plot (four teens form a gang in 1970s Taipei), the film deals with friendships, gang alliances and revenge killings in a fresh and original way. I loved the film and-- wow- what an ending! (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

(5th Place) NETHERLANDS, “Tirza”- Yet another surprise, and an example of the reason why I try to see the whole list every year, even if I don’t find the films very intriguing...I didn’t really want to see this film, but I decided to catch it the local EU Film Festival a week ago. This is basically a mystery about a middle-aged Dutch professor in the midst of a midlife crisis, who travels to Namibia to find his missing daughter who disappeared (or did she?) while travelling with an Arab boyfriend. Namibia is an exotic, beautiful and original filming location. The film is very weird and sometimes uncomfortable to watch due to sexual and violent overtones, but it’s a captivating watch, and the solution is there for the viewer to see. (Available on DVD on Region 2 DVD) Grade: A-

MY SHORTLIST-
6. HONG KONG, “Echoes of the Rainbow”- A intimate family drama set amidst a lower-middle class family in 1960s Hong Kong. The Law family have two sons; 16-year old Desmond is an handsome, overachieving track star, while “Big Ears” is a troublemaking 7-year old. While it doesn’t sound particular exciting, this slice-of-life drama does an excellent job at getting you involved in the life of this family, and the sad reality that tragedy is part of life. The mostly unheralded film treads a dangerous line, but always manages to stay (just barely!) on the right side of sentimental without crossing the line into schmaltz. For those of us who have been to Hong Kong, it’s also a reminder of how much this enclave has changed within one generation. Cinematic highlight: the typhoon. (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong, including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

7. CANADA, “Incendies”- I think my expectations were too high for Canada’s beautiful and brutal mystery...“Incendies” is about two Canadian twins discovering their late mother’s secret past life during the Lebanese civil war (though Lebanon itself is never mentioned). The film got some of the best reviews of the year, and it’s certainly a great film (miles better than its Oscar competition “Outside the Law” and “Dogtooth”). However, I figured out the mystery fairly early on, and I made the mistake of seeing it with a girl who had seen the play and told me about all the twists and turns that were more effectively plotted on stage. Highly recommended, but it just missed my cut...(Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

8. SPAIN, “Even the Rain”- Bolivia didn’t enter the Oscar competition this year, but Spain’s shortlisted film is an intriguing look at that country’s history, economy and politics. A Spanish film crew travels to Bolivia to make a movie about the voyage of Christopher Columbus. Why landlocked Bolivia? Because it’s the cheapest country to make a movie in. While the filmmakers attempt to make a film about the exploitation of the indigenous people by Spanish conquistadors, indigenous people are being marginalized by a real-life government deal threatening the country’s water resources….I thought the plot sounded dull, but it’s quite well done, and you learn a lot. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

9. ISRAEL, “Human Resources Manager”- The body of a Romanian immigrant woman killed in a bus bombing goes unclaimed in a morgue for a week, leading to a scandal when news gets out that her employer, a large bakery, didn’t even notice she was missing. The eponymous HR Manager is assigned by his boss to bring the body back to her native Romania. The disinterested company employee is forced to deal with a host of tragicomic situations involving the woman’s dysfunctional family, and a cadre of Romanian drivers, officials, grannies, villagers and soldiers...Well-done road movie. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

GOOD MOVIES!
10. KAZAKHSTAN, “Strayed”- Kazakhstan’s intriguing “Strayed” plays like a Russian-language version of The Twilight Zone (it’s also eerily similar to “Tirza”). A man is travelling with his wife and son along a barren highway in the middle of nowhere. Waking up from a nap, he finds his wife and son gone without a trace...He comes across a single cottage with an old man and his young wife (daughter?) living there. The mystery of the disappearances of the wife and boy provides the film’s plot, which holds up well upon a second viewing. Like “Dogtooth” and “St. Tony”, this is a divisive film. Unlike those other two, this is a good one. Pay attention to the costumes! (Available with English subtitles on Kazakhstan DVD) Grade: B+

11. ALBANIA, “East, West, East- The Final Sprint”- Yes, Albanians can do comedy! During the waning months of the isolationist Communist regime of Enver Hoxha, the Albanian Government agrees to send their unprepared national cycling team to a competition in France. Upon arriving in Italy, the Government in Tirana falls, leaving the team stranded without cash and desperate to return home by bicycle, through Italy and Yugoslavia. I really liked this movie. (Available on daaveedee.com with English subtitles) Grade: B+

12. HUNGARY , "Bibliotheque Pascal"- It's weird, original and definitely not for everyone. "Pascal"'s bizarre story of a Romanian woman trafficked to England for prostitution in a high-class brothel boasts surrealism that advances the story, unlike some other pretentious films on the list (yes, Khun Boonmee). I actually this could have been a truly great film if the film had gone the way of "Big Fish" or "Alice in Wonderland", but as it is, it's very good. I'm glad I saw it despite the many negative reviews. (Available on Netflix streaming) Grade: B+

13. DENMARK, “In A Better World”- Of course, this was the eventual Oscar winner, so I don’t need to say much about the plot, which focuses on the disturbing friendship between two bullied 12-year olds in Denmark, and their complicated relationships with their fathers. It's a morality tale done rather well, but although it’s a fine film with fine acting and writing that I would certainly recommend, I don’t think it was the best film in the race. Incidentally, neither did the Danes...It didn’t even get a Best Picture nod at their national film awards. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

14. INDIA, “Peepli (Live)”- A messy black comedy about an indebted farmer. Poor Natha is a heavily indebted farmer in fictional Mukhya Pradesh who learns that his impoverished family will receive a large compensation payment if he were to commit suicide. His family are an unsympathetic lot- a conniving brother, foul-mouthed mother, domineering wife and bratty kids. Natha doesn’t want to die, but his brother brags to the village that Natha will soon kill himself to get his family out of debt. Whether Natha will live or die soon becomes a national media circus, and India's tabloid media descends on the tiny rural town of Peepli, with bureaucrats, Mafioso, villagers and reporters debating the worth of his life. Farmer suicides are a very real issue in India...My only complaint is that the film takes its sweet time to get to where its going...Once it does the audience is laughing and then feeling guilty for laughing. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B.

15. CHILE, “The Life of Fish”- A talky relationship drama about a devastatingly handsome Chilean expat living in Germany, and the now-married woman he broke up with years before...The two meet up seemingly by chance at a party in Santiago and they may or may not still be in love (if they ever were in love in the first place...) It’s a little slow and not as good as the director’s “En la Cama” (which Chile submitted in 2003), but director Bize has a talent for real-life dialogue. A rather dull subplot about the death of a friend slows things down a few times, but the ending is a memorable one. Grade: B.

16. ICELAND, “Mamma Gogo”- A sad comedy about Alzheimer’s disease, “Mamma Gogo” is essentially an autobiographical film based on director Fridrik Thor Fridriksson’s filmmaking career, and his relationship with his mother. Kristianbjorg Kjell gives an Oscar-worthy performance as the increasingly frustrated “Gogo” whose comically confused antics slowly give way to anger and frustration about her illness. One gimmick that I didn’t get until the ending credits were that flashbacks to her (as a beautiful young woman) and her husband are actually scenes of actress Kjell from a film she made in 1962. The film is slow, but never tedious, with a great deal of heart. Grade: B

17. BOSNIA,'s "Cirkus Columbia- A well-made family drama set in 1991 in an ethnic Croatian town in Bosnia-Herzegovina. With the nation falling apart, a Croat man who fled during Communist times returns from Germany to help fund Croatian nationalists, along with his beautiful new wife, kicking his first wife and 20-year old son out of the house where they have lived for twenty years. This movie is made by the director of Bosnia's Oscar-winning "No Man's Land", and I'm not sure why it didn't get much traction at Oscar season. (Available on Netflix streaming) Grade: B

18. AFGHANISTAN,'s "Black Tulip"- If there was an award for the best back story, Afghanistan would surely have won the Oscar. The film is about an upper-class Afghan family trying to run a restaurant/cafe in Kabul featuring poetry and music that was banned under the Taliban. The movie makes Afghanistan look like a beautiful, sad and fascinating place...The film is a labor of love by multi-hypenate Sonia Nassery Cole, an Afghan-American woman who stars, directs and co-produces the film. And she does it really well. (Available on Video On Demand as of 10/25/2012) Grade: B

19. ALGERIA, “Hors-la-Loi”- Algeria’s Hors-la-Loi starts with a bang, with a riveting portrayal at the little-known Setif Massacre, in which French troops killed thousands of local Algerians. The film shows the different paths taken by three Algerian brothers living in France, during the decades-long run-up to Algerian independence in 1962. The film is well-made, and certainly important and educational, but it slows down as it goes along and is ultimately way too long for its own good. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

20. SOUTH KOREA, “A Barefoot Dream”- Like Algeria’s film, this is a difficult one to grade...Based on a true story, “A Barefoot Dream” is a comedy-drama about a self-absorbed Korean entrepreneur who moves to newly independent Timor-Leste to make a quick buck, and ends up trying to sell sneakers to the capital’s barefoot teens. It’s not necessarily a good film, and it starts off downright cheesy. However, Korean directors are masters of emotional manipulation, pressing all the right buttons as if to scream at the audience “LIKE ME!” By the end, you’re supporting the ragtag East Timorese team just like you are supposed to...(Available on Yesasia) Grade: B.

21. VENEZUELA, “Hermano”- A woman and her two teenage sons live in the slums of Caracas. Both sons are soccer stars in the neighborhood- the elder one is an enforcer with a local gang, while the younger one is much more innocent. Life changes forever for the brothers with the occurrence of a brutal accidental murder in the neighborhood. This film challenges your views on personal ambition, brotherhood and revenge and is another great example of a film that proves you don’t need a big budget to make a good movie. I was slightly less moved than my friends who saw this film with me, but it was still very good. B.

22. GERMANY, “When We Leave”- A German-Turkish woman raised in Germany flees an abusive relationship in Turkey with her young son in tow. She returns to her family in Germany, determined to start anew. Her loving family’s welcome turns to scorn when they realize her “visit” is actually a permanent return home and that she plans to disgrace the family by divorcing. A very topical film to be sure. Well-done but flawed with a moving ending. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

23. AUSTRIA, "La Pivellina"- This is a quirky Italian-language drama from Austria (which wouldn't have been eligible under the old rules) about a poor family of "circus folk" who discover an abandoned baby girl in a park. The girl is accompanied by a note from the mother promising to return shortly. The 50-something matriarch begins becoming increasing attached as days and weeks pass. "La Pivellina" is not the sort of movie I generally like, but this minimalist film was engrossing and memorable. It's even more interesting when you realize the actors are a real family essentially playing themselves (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

24. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"- Strongly reminiscent of South Africa's previous Oscar nominee "Yesterday", this film is probably the first internationally seen film in the Sepedi language. Beautifully shot and well-acted by a mostly female, largely child cast, the film focuses on a 13-year old girl named Chandra who is forced to face a lifetime of adversity in a few months of her life. Her baby sister has died, her stepfather is a drunken lout, her mother is sick (probably with AIDS) and her best friend has turned to prostitution to survive. Tackling so many serious issues, this is total Oscar bait. Everything is very well done, but I simply found the film a bit obvious, and not as good as the films higher up on the list. B. (Available on Netflix)

25. SWEDEN, “Simple Simon”- I really can’t understand how this entertaining trifle made it to the Oscar shortlist over “Contracorriente” and “Street Days”. This comedy is the story of Simon, an 18-year old with Asperger’s Syndrome, a mental condition that makes him obsess about times, shapes and colors, and show little regard for the feelings of other people. When Simon learns that his special-needs have caused his older brother to breakup with his girlfriend, he sets out to find him a new one. It’s a fun film with a refreshing visual flair (it tries to make us see the world the way Simon does) and the ending is well-done, but it’s still a standard comedy film that doesn’t have to gravitas to be here. Although she is painted as a villain, I’m afraid I was most sympathetic to the girlfriend driven away by Simon’s maddening antics...(Available on Daaveedee with English subtitles) Grade: B

26. NICARAGUA, “La Yuma”- A teenage girl from an abusive home is trying to train as a female boxer to rise above her surroundings. This is the first film to be made in Nicaragua in twenty years. It’s not up to the technical standards of the Oscar category, but it’s well-made and engaging throughout. The director and lead actress are clearly talented, and her troubled romantic relationship with a local college student is handled very realistically. (Available on Youtube with English subtitles) Grade: B.

27. SLOVAKIA, “The Border”- A fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian village that was divided overnight by Soviet authorities into a border village with Soviet and Czechoslovak halves, dividing families, farms, properties and couples. After the fall of Communism, many thought their separation would be ended forever, but a new border between Slovakia (i.e. the European Union) and Ukraine keeps things complicated. The film misses some major opportunities, but the subject matter is so interesting that doesn’t matter. Grade: B.

AVERAGE FILMS
28. KYRGYZSTAN, “The Light Thief”- Another entertaining but unspectacular film, “The Light Thief” is fascinating most of all for its window on culture in rural Kyrgyzstan. “Mr. Light” connects peasants to the state electricity grid for free and eventually comes into conflict with local politicians. My friend and I argued about the ending and what happened to Mr. Light. Grade: B-

29. ITALY, “The First Beautiful Thing”- This was one of the favorites, and everyone was shocked when it wasn’t nominated. Actually, I think it’s a pretty average Italian comedy-drama about the relationship between a beautiful, free-spirited woman and her son, spanning several decades. Grade: B-

30. IRAQ, “Son of Babylon”- A silent Kurdish granny and her grandson search post-war Iraq for the woman’s son, who was imprisoned under Saddam. It’s hard to say anything bad about this film, which was made under such difficult conditions. It’s a good film, if a bit slow. Grade: B-

31. BELGIUM, “Illegal”- A Russian woman living illegally with her son in Belgium is caught by local authorities and taken to an immigration detention center, while her young son escapes. I disagreed strongly with the politics of the film, as we are supposed to sympathize with the lead character as she refuses to cooperate with the Belgian authorities. Having worked in immigration for three years, I had little sympathy for her as she provided false names, false nationalities and generally refused to try to work within the system to get asylum (which does not seem to be very hard in Western Europe...) Well-acted but preachy...I didn’t like it. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

32. CHINA, “Aftershock”- Oh, it all started so well......This big-budget Chinese film begins with a family experiencing the Great Tangshan Earthquake that killed hundreds of thousands, in frightening, gory, tragic detail (the CGI are a bit obvious, but okay). Unfortunately, once the earthquake is over, the film turns into a soap opera with dedicated Communist parents adopting orphans, and bizarre coincidences reuniting families. Maybe my expectations were too high, but the “drama” doesn’t match up to director Feng Xiaogang’s “action”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

33. GREENLAND, “Nuummioq”- Like Kyrgyzstan’s “Light Thief”, the main attraction of this film is to see the landscapes of a country rarely seen on film. A “Nuummioq” (a resident of the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk) likes to drink and hang out with his stepbrother, but his life changes when he finds out he has cancer. An interesting look at what it’s like to live in Greenland, but out of its league here. Grade: C+

34. FRANCE, “Of Gods and Men”- Well-made, well-acted true story about a monastery of French Catholic monks living in Algeria during the 1980s during a period of brutal Islamic violence. It’s nice that the heroic story of these men who lived in harmony with the local community has been memorialized on film, but it’s not a particularly engaging or interesting film and I'm very sorry but frankly I was bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

35. SLOVENIA, "9:06"- This is virtually a short film (71 minutes) about a police detective in Ljubljana investigating what appears to be a suicide. While investigating the man's life, he becomes obsessed with the victim and, for unknown reasons, begins to take on characteristics of the victim. Some good ideas here, but they're not fully fleshed out. (Available on DVD in Slovenia with English subtitles) Grade: C

36. ARGENTINA, “Carancho”- Ricardo Darin stars as an ambulance-chasing lawyer. Lots of juicy endings this year, but otherwise a mostly forgettable thriller. The Argentines can do better. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

37. RUSSIA, “The Edge”- A technically superior film about life in a Siberian work camp, filled with macho men, racing steam engines and views of the barren steppes of Siberia in the late 1940s. Unfortunately, it’s not particularly engaging or interesting. Grade: C

38. COLOMBIA, “Crab Trap”- A white Colombian wanders into an Afro-Colombian village in search of something or someone. He meets a little girl and takes a room in beachfront lodge....It’s slow but never boring, and I suppose it’s interesting if you think of it as a cultural travelogue, but not much happens. Grade: C

39. BANGLADESH, “Third Person Singular Number”- An educated middle-class Bangladeshi woman from a troubled family (jailed husband, estranged mother) finds it more difficult to find an apartment than a job (landlords think any woman who lives alone must be a prostitute). She ends up in a flirtatious relationship with a successful recording artist, presenting her with a number of moral dilemmas. A flawed film to be sure, and definitely out of its league at the Oscars, but interesting nonetheless. (Available on DVD in Bangladesh with English subtitles) Grade: C

40. LATVIA, "Hong Kong Confidential"- Also known as "Amaya", this is an odd little film set in Hong Kong with mostly Cantonese and English dialogue (with a bit of Japanese thrown in). The director and lead actor are Latvians, but there's no mention of the country or its language in the film (when asked where he is from, the lead says he is from a European country "that nobody has ever heard of"). The other leads are a middle-aged binational couple (Japanese wife and Hong Kong husband) who speak in Cantonese, and a Cantonese-speaking massage parlor employee. It's an average film with a series of mostly forgettable interlocking stories and an ending that didn't make sense to me. (Available on DVD in Latvia with English subtitles) Grade: C-

BAD FILMS
41. GREECE, “Dogtooth”- I love black comedies. I love surreal humor. I love how Takashi Miike can make extreme violence funny. I did not love “Dogtooth”. The film is certainly original, but it takes a fascinating idea (an insane husband and wife raise their three children with no contact with the outside world) and almost makes it boring. Not sure how this made the Top Five....(Available on Netflix)
Grade: C- (and only because the screenplay is an original one)

42. PHILIPPINES, “Noy”- Okay, so maybe this one isn’t a bad film, but it is a forgettable one. “Noy” is a drama about a talented videographer with no formal qualifications lying his way into a job as a documentarian for Filipino TV. He has a rough family life including a handicapped brother who earns money by helping a drug gang and a mother who the family tries to force into a relationship with a gross older American man. The Philippines doesn’t come across looking too good in this movie and Noy is not as sympathetic as the filmmakers want him to be. That’s about all I can remember. (Available in the Philippines with English subtitles) Grade: C-

43. ROMANIA, “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”- I’m not partial to the Romanian New Wave, and I found this story of a young man about to released from a juvenile detention facility to be quite boring. It’s a lot better than the mind-numbing “Police Adjective” Romania sent last year, and it does get better as the story builds to its climax, but I was generally bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade. C-

44. FINLAND, “Steam of Life”- I feel bad putting this film so low since it’s a well-made documentary, but not one that managed to capture my interest. A big hit in its native Finland, it’s the story of famously reserved Finnish men baring their life’s traumas in the comfort of the country’s renowned saunas. A lot of sad stories which hopefully provided catharsis to all involved, but I'm afraid I was bored. Grade: C-

45. PORTUGAL, “To Die Like A Man”- It sounds difficult to make a campy movie about an aging drag queen dull but that’s exactly what the Portuguese have done with this overlong melodrama about the misadventures of a transgender cabaret singer, and her (his?) violent 21-year old son from an earlier liaison. Starts off interesting, but could have used some judicious editing (i.e. most scenes with her dog) since it goes on much MUCH too long. (Available on Netflix Streaming) Grade: D+

46. TURKEY "Honey"- This winner of the Golden Bear in Berlin is quite a pretty film if you're interesting in watching a travelogue of rural Turkey. However, this virtually plotless, scriptless film about a little boy whose father disappears (well, not really....you see what happens to him in the first scene) is mind-numbingly slow and not worth watching. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D+

47. POLAND, “All That I Love”- The most memorable thing about this forgettable Cold War drama set in 1980s Communist Poland is that I barely remember seeing it. It’s a trifling, uninteresting coming-of-age tale about a teenager with a punk band. Neighboring Hungary took a similar plot (substituting punk for rock-n-roll) with “Made in Hungaria” which was ten times better. Grade: D

48. BULGARIA, “Eastern Plays”- A drab, depressing drama about the intersecting lives of a recovering Bulgarian drug addict, his neo-Nazi brother, and a Turkish family visiting Bulgaria. Lots of important issues here, but it’s not done in an interesting way. I’m not sure how this film was able to win the Tokyo Film Festival in 2009. Grade: D

49. ESTONIA, “The Temptation of St. Tony”- I was really excited to see this film which is billed as the story of a man who suddenly decides to abandon all morals. Unfortunately, it's an experimental and virtually plotless mess that manages to be shocking and boring at the same time. Looks like a student film project gone awry. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

50. THAILAND, “Uncle Boonmee”- Creative? Possibly. Good? No. I lived in Thailand for years and I am a great lover of Thai cinema but I’m embarrassed that their first Cannes win is for this pretentious, nonsensical film. The director seems to think that if he throws enough crazy ideas on the screen that it will be art. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

I haven't got a chance to see the other 16 films from Azerbaijan, Brazil, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Macedonia, Mexico, Norway, Puerto Rico, Serbia, Switzerland and Uruguay, but will get around to seeing "Biutiful" soon, and have repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to obtain a copy of Puerto Rico's "Miente".

NEXT: 2012 Oscars- The Films of Western Europe

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- Western Europe

Happy New Year....

The Western Europeans have traditionally hogged the five nominations as a bloc....Nowadays, it seems to be just FRANCE and GERMANY that have the Oscar love....The Germans have been nominated five of the past six years....Despite being one of their strongest films, "Edge of Heaven", a drama about Turkish-Germans, was the one film that missed the cut....Will this year's similarly-themed Turkish-German film suffer the same fate?

Here is the line-up from Western Europe, including the autonomous Danish province of Greenland, competing separately for the very first time.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH:


16. PORTUGAL- "To Die Like A Man"
15. NORWAY- "Angel"
14. FINLAND- "Steam of Life"

This year's biggest Western European long-shot is more often than not the entry from PORTUGAL....This year's "To Die Like A Man" is a melodramatic film about an aging transsexual who discovers that she is dying....It's filled with Almodovar-esque melodrama and histrionics, drag musical numbers and a number of bizarre occurences. The film has its admirers, but almost everyone complains about its lengthy 2hr20m running time, overall reception has been mixed and the subject matter (drag queens, outdoor sex, breast implants) just doesn't seem like it will appeal to the committee. These two Scandinavians films are also sure to be ignored too....NORWAY has chosen a gritty, off-putting drama about a heroin addict whose child is (quite rightfully) taken away. A lot of people dislike the film and even its fans admit its a difficult film to watch. FINLAND's submission is a well-liked documentary about the Finnish tradition of saunas. The Finns are well-known throughout Europe for being a quiet and unemotional people, but the film tries to dispel these stereotypes by watching Finnish men (in saunas) to talk about their lives. The film was a major success in its home country and some of the themes are universal, but documentaries have a natural disadvantage in this category, and the film is too filled with naked bodies and naked honesty to compete here.

VERY UNLIKELY:




13. GREECE- "Dogtooth"
12. GREENLAND- "Nuummioq"
11. AUSTRIA- "La Pivellina"
10. SWEDEN- "Simple Simon"

First of all, there is no chance in hell that the larger committee will choose's GREECE's bloody black comedy, "Dogtooth", but I'm putting Greece in this category on the tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny chance that the elite committee will select it. But I doubt it.

None of these films really have much of a chance....GREECE, as mentioned above, is simply not everyone's cup of tea. "Dogtooth" may have won a lot of awards AND attracted interest at every festival it appeared at, but this gory fairy tale of what happens when two modern-day parents seal off their children from the rest of the world in a palatial mansion is simply not the kind of film that gets nominated. I can't wait to see it though and it comes out on DVD in the USA in January.

AUSTRIA and GREENLAND have chosen films that aren't likely to stand out in the crowd. "La Pivellina" is an Italian-language drama about a middle-aged circus performer who finds a 2-year old infant abandoned in a park, with a note saying that the mother will one day return. She and her family proceed to try and take care of the child. Many people like the film, but no one loves it. GREENLAND's "Nuummioq" is a beautiful film featuring the beautiful landscapes and fjords of this remote island territory....The film has a great backstory (one of the first feature films made by Greenlandic filmmakers....first director dropped out halfway after being depressed, but film was completed by another crew member) but this tale of a dying man looking for love has gotten better reviews for its cinematography than for its story. SWEDEN has once again chosen a youth-oriented comedy, this time about a socially awkward young man with Asperger's Syndrome who goes on a quest to find his brother a girlfriend. The trailer looks quite funny, and there is always a chance of an "Everybody Famous"-style upset, but I think this film is a little too silly to contend for the Top Nine.

VOTE SIPHONERS:





9. ICELAND- "Mamma Gógó"
8. BELGIUM- "Illegal"
7. SWITZERLAND- "La Petite Chambre"
6. SPAIN- "Even the Rain"

BELGIUM has selected a film about an illegal Russian immigrant trying to game the immigration system and stay in touch with her son after being detained in a detention center to await deportation, in the French-language drama, "Illegal". Pros: film boasts strong acting and a topical issue. Based-on-a-true story. Cons: "Illegal" is overtly political, occasionally preachy and maddeningly one-sided. Weak ending. Its "cinema-verite" style will appeal to some, but not to others.
ICELAND chose an autobiographical story of a filmmaker in dire financial straits who also has to deal with the worsening Alzheimers of his beloved mother in the gentle drama "Mamma Gógó". Pros: plot will appeal to filmmakers, and the committee may be charmed by a subplot in which the filmmaker awaits the Best Foreign Film Oscar nominations. Cons: critics say the movie is good but not great- it even lost Best Picture at the Icelandic Oscars to another film.
SPAIN chose "Even the Rain", a drama about a Spanish film crew trying to make a historical movie in Bolivia. The film, starring Mexican actor Gael Garcia Bernal, takes a cerebral look at capitalism, indigenous people and exploitation. Pros: good reviews, international cast and high production values. Cons: The film may be too smart for its own good.
SWITZERLAND chose French-language drama "La Petite Chambre", a quiet film about the budding friendship between a young nurse and her elderly patient. Pros: Screenplay and story are likely to appeal to the committee, which tends to like these inter-generational dramas. CONS: The film is a small and intimate relationship drama- the opposite of the splashy, dramatic films that have dominated the category in the last few years, and has generated little buzz.
Bottom Line: It's an uphill battle, but SPAIN's pedigree has the best chance of breaking through.


DARK HORSES FROM AFRICA:


5. NETHERLANDS- "Tirza"
4. FRANCE- "Of Gods and Men"

Two films set in different regions of Africa are both dark horses for the shortlist. FRANCE has chosen a true-story film set in Algeria, about a group of dedicated French monks who refuse to abandon their beloved monastery when threatened by Islamic fundamentalists. Despite excellent relations with the local community, the monks are held hostage and killed by their captors. THE NETHERLANDS film is set in Namibia, and is based on a famous Dutch novel, about a man searching for his missing daughter (with the help of a child prostitute, no less!) in Southern Africa.

France is perenially on the shortlist, and "Of Gods and Men" won Best Foreign Film at the National Board of Review and appeared at Cannes, but not every one loves the film, which most say is inspiring and contemplative but which some say is slow and overlong...."Tirza" has gotten somewhat better reviews and has the baity plot and beautiful vistas of a nominee. I'm ranking France higher based on their long Oscar track record

GOOD SHOTS:
3. ITALY- "The First Beautiful Thing"
2. GERMANY- "When We Leave"

GERMANY is golden with the Academy, winning nominations five of the past six years. This year's film is a drama about a young Turkish-German woman who goes back to Turkey to get married. After several years, she leaves the abusive relationship and returns to Germany, only to face ostracism and anger from her family for breaking with tradition. This film has gotten stronger reviews from American critics than foreign critics and the committee tends to like "issue-based" films, and German films in general, so this should have a good shot at making it through....Unlike Germany, ITALY's strong Oscar record is very much in the past. Since they won in 1999 (for "Life is Beautiful"), they've only been nominated once, and that was for the mediocre "Don't Tell", one of the most unmemorable Foreign Film nominees in recent history. They could have won this year with "The Man Who Comes", but chose a tearjerker comedy-drama about the relationship between a vivacious (but dying) mother, and her adult son instead...."The First Beautiful Thing" presses a lot of Oscar's favorite buttons, and seems to be the sort of movie that got Italy a lot of its nominations in its 60s and 70s heyday.

Germany and Italy face a lot of competition from their WWII opponents in France and Holland, and aren't guaranteed of a slot....but I imagine at least one of them will make it through.

THE FAVORITE:

1. DENMARK- "In A Better World" This epic drama has everything that Oscar looks for, and will be a real threat to take the Oscar home in February. The plot is difficult to summarize, but concerns the friendship between two boys from troubled homes in Denmark; one is a shy boy whose father works as an aid worker in Africa, the other the violent son of a recently widowed father. The film has universally positive reviews, a thought-provoking plot, issues of morality and revenge, and was one of three films on this list to net a Golden Globe nomination (alongside Russia and Mexico). Director Susanne Bier has been shown some Oscar love before ("After the Wedding") and has also made some Hollywood films. I think "World" is safe.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 18

Number of countries participating this year: 16, including first-timer GREENLAND

Number of countries disqualified: None.

Number of countries opting out: 3, namely IRELAND,
LUXEMBOURGand UNITED KINGDOM. Ireland didn't have any eligible films, but I'm a bit surprised by the absence of the other two.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: About seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13. Three films are mostly in French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), two are in Italian (Austria and Italy), with one each in Danish, Dutch, Finnish, German, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish. There's a little bit of Arabic (France) and Turkish (Germany) in there as well.

Highest profile films: The most well-known is probably GREECE's bizarre "Dogtooth", which won Un Certain Regard at Cannes last year.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Ooh...This is always difficult in Western Europe, but I'm putting my money on DENMARK's "In a Better World".

Longest Shot for a Nomination: More often than not, the biggest long shot is PORTUGAL, and this year is no exception with campy melodrama "To Die Like A Man"

Number of Comedies: Three- GREECE, ITALY and SWEDEN

Number of Documentaries: One. FINLAND

Number of Horror Films: Well...one, sort of...GREECE again.

Oscar History: DENMARK's Susanne Bier and ICELAND's Friðrik Þór Friðriksson have gotten Oscar nominations before....Bier was nominated in 2007 for "After the Wedding", and Fridriksson was nominated in 1992 for "Children of Nature". This is the sixth time Fridriksson is representing Iceland, and his semi-autobiographical film, "Mamma Gogo", follows the aftermath of "Nature"'s surprise Oscar nomination.

Also, the NETHERLANDS' Rudolf Van Der Berg previously repped his country twenty years ago, in 1990.

Every country has been nominated at least once before, except PORTUGAL, and debutante GREENLAND.

Number of Female Directors: Seven women representing six countries.....DENMARK (Susanne Bier), GERMANY (Feo Aladag), NORWAY (Margreth Olin), and for the first time ever, SPAIN (Iciar Bollain) have female directors. Also both directors of the film from SWITZERLAND are women, as is one of the two co-directors (husband and wife) of the film from AUSTRIA.

Now that Spain's Bollain has broken the glass ceiling, the only Western European country never to send a woman-helmed film is, shockingly, liberal SWEDEN.

Familiar Faces: The only major international star is Gael Garcia Bernal in SPAIN's "Even the Rain", but you might also recognize- Ulrich Thomsen (Denmark), Hilmir Snaer Gudnason (Iceland), Lambert Wilson (France) and Sibel Kekilli (Germany) in their respective national submissions.

Tough Choices: NORWAY seems to have had the hardest time deciding. Their selection committee had to meet several times, dithering between heroin addict drama "Angel", and critically acclaimed comedy "A Somewhat Gentle Man". I found ITALY to be the biggest surprise, turning down the film that I thought would win the 2011 Oscar, namely critically-acclaimed WWII drama, "The Man Who Will Come". Even more people were surprised by the loss of Goya-winning prison drama "Cell 311", from SPAIN. Also, FRANCE ignored whimsical Jean-Pierre Jeunet ("Amelie") comedy "The Micmacs" and Holocaust music drama (Oscar loves them all!) "The Concert", ICELAND opted not to choose their 2010 Best Picture winner, comedy "Mr. Bjarnfredarson" and FINLAND did the same with expensive patriotic war drama "Under the North Star". Happily, SWITZERLAND chose another film over "Film Socialisme", Godard's latest self-indulgent folly.

Controversies and Changes: Belgian immigration cadres have rightfully complained about the one-sided "Illegal", but that hardly counts as a controversy.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Six: DENMARK, GREECE, GREENLAND, ICELAND, NETHERLANDS, PORTUGAL, and I had the films from BELGIUM, FRANCE, ITALY and SPAIN as runners-up (all difficult!). I had ever heard of the Finnish film.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the overtly politicized and borderline offensive "Illegal" from BELGIUM. Honestly, I'm extremely intrigued by the love-it-or-hate-it buzz surrounding "Dogtooth" (GREECE) and also by the funny trailer of SWEDEN's "Simple Simon".

Last year's race: I did well, seeing 10 of the 17 Western European films, although I wasn't very impressed by most of them....My personal favorite was BRITAIN's lively, moving documentary "Afghan Star", which follows real-life contestants on Afghanistan's version of "American Idol".

My grades:
1. UNITED KINGDOM- "Afghan Star" A-
2. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy" B+, Original and clever
3. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire" B+, Solid and enlightening history tale4. ICELAND- Reykjavik-Rotterdam" B, Good but unmemorable
5. FRANCE- "Un Prophete" B, Very well-made...but OH SO LONG!
6. GERMANY- "The White Ribbon" B-, Not my favorite Haneke, but good ending.
7. NORWAY- "Max Manus:" B-, Well-made war drama
8. SWITZERLAND- "Home" B-, Original and starts off strong but loses steam in second act.
9. FINLAND- "Letters to Father Jacob" C, Slight, 75-minute drama
10. BELGIUM- "The Misfortunates" C, Well-acted but with unpleasant characters and slightly boring.

The shortlist should come out around January 15th....

Next will be the 16 nominees from Asia....

FOREIGN OSCAR ANALYSIS 2010- EASTERN EUROPE

The films from Eastern Europe this year are not a very promising bunch....17 films are competing from the 21 eligible countries.....

ABSOLUTELY NOT:

17. ESTONIA- “The Temptation of St. Tony”
16. AZERBAIJAN- “The Precinct”
15. CROATIA- “The Blacks”

Better luck next year for these three republics, formerly parts of the USSR and Yugoslavia...Both AZERBAIJAN and ESTONIA have gone with surreal, metaphorical route filled with abstract imagery, while CROATIA has gone with grim realism.

“The Temptation of St. Tony” has gotten a lot of festival play (I saw it in DC) and “The Precinct” has somehow managed a tiny US release in California. Despite interesting (and strange) trailers, there’s no way either can contend for an Oscar. “St. Tony” takes a cue from David Lynch’s “Eraserhead”, and includes a lot of bizarre imagery including murder, dead dogs and cannibalism, but it has no linear plot, makes very little sense and manages to be boring despite its racy subject matter. “The Precinct” follows a photographer who angers his fiancée by postponing their marriage to take a job in Africa. The couple get into a car accident and find themselves in a metaphysical police precinct where the cops know every detail of their lives. Too weird.

Despite a glowing review from Variety, Croatia’s “The Blacks” is also guaranteed not to advance. This bleak war drama told in flashbacks looks at war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the 1990s. With dark lighting and unlikeable characters plotting to kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure, there are as many people who hate the film as like it.

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY:

14. SLOVAKIA- “The Border”
13. SLOVENIA- “9:06”
12. BULGARIA- “Eastern Plays”

The Bulgarians (shortlisted for the first time last year) have selected a bleak drama about two brothers- one, a recovering drug addict, the other a teenaged skinhead. The Slovenians have selected a thriller about a policeman who becomes obsessed with the life of a man whose death (murder? suicide?) he is investigating. The Slovaks have selected a fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian town that was literally split down the middle by invading Soviets in the 1940s, dividing families and farms between Czechoslovakia and the USSR (and now Slovakia and Ukraine).

I’ve seen the films from Bulgaria and Slovakia, and they’re simply not good enough. “Eastern Plays” somehow won the Tokyo Film Festival, but it’s not an interesting film and I’m sure there will be enough people who agree with me who will keep the film out of the running. The only nice thing I can say is that Bulgarian production values have come a long way since the 1990s. The Slovakian film is fascinating- I liked it very much. But it’s definitely a flawed documentary whose main attribute is that it highlights an issue that I never would have known about otherwise. Certain elements could have been expanded upon (particularly the ethnic element), others edited, and while it is certainly worth seeing, it doesn’t deserve an Oscar. The Slovenian film is said to be a decent-enough film, but I’ve heard it begins to fall apart in the end- exactly what you don’t what a thriller to do. Better luck next year to these three too...

UNLIKELY FOR THE SHORTLIST:



11. HUNGARY- “Bibliotheque Pascal”
10. ALBANIA- “East West East”
9. MACEDONIA- “Mothers”
8. LATVIA- “Hong Kong Confidential”
7. POLAND- “All That I Love”

Coming-of-age punk.
Sado-masochistic sex.
Albanian comedy.
Three short films, consisted of two dramas and a documentary.
An Asian comedy made by Eastern Europeans.

These five films all strike me as very unlikely....None of them has any strong base of support, and none of them are universally loved. The dark horse out of these is really the Latvian comedy, of which there is nearly ZERO information online.

ALBANIA's comedy, "East West West" has a winning plot, and I thought it might be a contender. Circa 1990, an Albanian cycling team leaves the reclusive dictatorship for a cycling competition in France. As soon as they make it to Italy, they learn the government has been overthrown and they have to figure out what to do. Reviews have been positive but unenthusiastic.

HUNGARY's film, "Bibliotheque Pascal", is a visually creative film about an Eastern European woman who must recount the fantastical story of how she was trafficked into sexual slavery, in order to regain custody of her child. Sounds like "Big Fish" mixed with "Taken". People like it a lot, or hate it.

The MACEDONIAns have chosen a rather strange film called "Mothers". It premiered at Toronto and features a short about nine-year olds reporting an imaginary flasher, a slightly longer film about a man making a documentary about a small village, and finally a documentary about a serial killer. Too weird.

POLAND's coming-of-age comedy-drama, "All That I Love", has the best chance of the lot, but this likeable Communist-era story about a young man using punk rock music to join in the Solidarity Movement doesn't have enough behind it to make the finals.

LATVIA....Who knows? There's not a single English-language review online. "Hong Kong Confidential" is a fun romantic comedy-drama about six intersecting lives set in Hong Kong and starring an international cast from Hong Kong, Japan, Latvia and Lithuania speaking Japanese, Cantonese and English. Sounds like fun, but not really Oscary.....


VERY DARK HORSES:


6. BOSNIA- “Cirkus Columbia”
5. SERBIA- “Besa”
4. ROMANIA- “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”

These three Balkan countries aren't likely to make the finals, but they do have a slight shot. BOSNIA has the biggest name....Since winning the Oscar for "No Man's Land" eight years ago, Danis Tanovic has only made three films. His latest, "Cirkus Columbia", is his first return to Bosnian filmmaking since his Oscar win. The film tells the story of a man returning to his home village from Germany in the years just before the Balkan wars. ROMANIA has the highest-profile film, "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle", about a jailed juvenile delinquent at war with his mother. Although it's won many awards and charmed a large minority of film critics, there are plenty of people who are bored by the film, its slow pacing, its long takes and are likely to give it low marks. Also remember that neither Romania nor its New Wave has ever charmed Oscar voters before. It has a slight chance with the Elite Committee, none with the large one. SERBIA's "Besa" (Solemn Promise) is an interesting multi-ethnic drama from what used to be one of the world's most multi-ethnic nations. During World War I, a Serbian principal is called to the frontlines, forcing him to leave his pretty Slovene wife to be protected by his uneducated Albanian manservant (played by a Serb). Their agreement is a besa and the relationship between the three forms the plot of the film. The film is largely an unknown quantity- No major film festivals, no review on Variety, making it difficult to figure out.

All of these films have a VERY uphill battle.

COULD GET LUCKY:


3. RUSSIA- “The Edge”
2. GEORGIA- “Street Days”

The Eastern Europeans have sent a fairly weak group this year....Enemies on the battlefield, Georgia and Russia, have a chance at the shortlist, although I don't think either one can make the Final Five.

As expected, RUSSIA has the bigger film...."The Edge" is a big, expensive film about the highs and lows of life in one of the Soviet Union's Siberian work camps after the deportations in the 1950s. It's filled with big trains, romance and high production values and it has an Oscary story....Good reviews but no one seems to be excited about it.

GEORGIA's "Street Days" is a fascinating, low-budget morality play whose plot reminds me of the brilliant "Klopka", which made the shortlist for Serbia three years ago. A man is blackmailed by corrupt cops who want to extort money from his wealthy friend's son. Faced with a choice of going to jail or framing the teen, this film is said to pack a wallop. Good luck to Georgia to get their second nomination!

VERY POSSIBLE:


1. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Kawasaki’s Rose”

I think Kawasaki's Rose will be the one Eastern European flick to make this year's shortlist. In the film, a popular anti-Communist dissident's life falls apart when it is revealed in the press that had been forced by the Czechoslovakian government to act as a informer decades before. The film has gotten good reviews and Oscar has picked Jan Hrebejk before ("Divided We Fall"). The plot sounds Oscary and it's not a strong year.....

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None that I know of.

Number of countries opting out: 4 former Soviet republics. ARMENIA and LITHUANIA submitted films last year, but chose not to enter this year, despite having some decent releases. Also absent: UKRAINE (“You, My Joy” will be eligible next year) and Europe’s last dictatorship, BELARUS, which hasn’t submitted a film since 1996. Belarus should have sent the handsome war drama “Brest Fortress”.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many….Two or three, with a few more dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 14 primary languages: Albanian, Azeri, Bulgarian, Cantonese (!), Czech, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Serbo-Croatian and Slovene. Interestingly enough, the Slovakian film is in Hungarian. Lots of multi-lingual films….the Azeri film features some Russian, the Albanian film has some Italian, the Serbian one features Slovene and Albanian, the Bulgarian film has some Turkish, the Hungarian film features some Romanian and the Latvian film is mostly in Cantonese (with some English and Japanese mixed in).

Highest profile films: Probably ROMANIA’s “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle” which won the Silver Bear at Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: I’m predicting the CZECH REPUBLIC for the third year in a row (although neither of the last two got nominated!)

Longest Shot for a Nomination: ESTONIA’s surreal experimental film, “The Temptation of St. Tony”.

Number of Comedies: Two. ALBANIA and LATVIA, although ESTONIA and POLAND have some comedy elements.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. SLOVAKIA plus part of MACEDONIA’s three-part film.

Oscar History: The race features one former Oscar winner- BOSNIA’s Danis Tanović who won the 2002 Foreign Film Award for “No Man’s Land”, and two former nominees- CZECH REPUBLIC’s Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) and MACEDONIA’s Milcho Manchevski (“Before the Rain”).

Albania’s Gjergj Xhuvani (“Slogans”), Hungary’s Szabolcs Hajdu (“White Palms”), Latvia’s Maris Martinsons (“Loss”) and Russia’s Alexei Uchitel (“His Wife’s Diary”) have participated in the Oscar race before, although Martinsons competed for his adopted country of Lithuania.

Eight of the seventeen countries have been nominated before (including Serbia, whose filmmakers got many nominations as Yugoslavia).

Number of Female Directors: None. :(

Familiar Faces: No household names...Japanese actress Kaori Momoi (“Memories of a Geisha”, “Kagemusha”) co-stars in the Latvian submission….Alexander Mashkov (“Behind Enemy Lines”) stars in the Russian one….Bosnian actor Emir Hadzihafizbegovic stars in his tenth Oscar submission (this time, for Croatia).

Tough Choices: The biggest snub was “How I Ended This Summer”, which was the favorite for RUSSIA, although the “one-film-per-country rule” meant an early exit for massive period drama “Tsar” and critical flop “Burnt by the Sun 2”. The other big snub was ROMANIA’s “Tuesday Before Christmas”….In any other year, “On the Path” would have been a shoo-in for BOSNIA...My pick for SERBIA, “The Woman With a Broken Nose”, lost by one vote and my pick for LATVIA, “Rudolf’s Gold” was also the runner-up….Others that missed the list “Three Seasons in Hell” from CZECH REPUBLIC, “Dark House” and “Little Rose” from POLAND, and call-girl drama “Slovenka” from SLOVENIA.

Controversies and Changes: No big stories from this part of the world. The best I can do is CROATIA, which picked a controversial film about war crimes committed by Croatian forces during the Balkan wars. RUSSIA was able to avoid a controversy when three-time Oscar nominee (and one-time winner) Nikita Mikhalkov pulled his poorly reviewed “Burnt By the Sun 2” from consideration for the Russian slot. Many had predicted that Mikhalkov’s stature and stellar Oscar record, and the fact that the first film had won the 1995 Oscar, would mean that, despite poor reviews, the film would rep Russia.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I did very well! 9 out of 17!! (Namely, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia) plus I had “Besa” as my Serbian alternate. …..However, I’ll admit I’d never even heard of the films from Azerbaijan, Latvia, Russia or Slovakia before they were selected.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the nominees from BULGARIA (C-), ESTONIA (D) and SLOVAKIA (B+) at this year’s EU Film Festival in Washington, DC, and was somewhat disappointed. There are quite a few intriguing films on the roster, but if I could only pick one, I’d choose ALBANIA’s “East West East” since I enjoyed Xhuvani’s “Slogans” and the plot (an Albanian cycling team is confused as to what to do when their government is overthrown while they are abroad in Italy) sounds like a lot of fun. Runner-ups for me: GEORGIA’s morality play, “Street Days” and LATVIA’s Asian comedy “Hong Kong Confidential”.

Last year's race: I only managed to see 3 of last year’s 17 films. Disturbing SLOVENIAn thriller (“Landscape No. 2”) was a flawed film, but it was also great bloody fun to watch, and managed to make the audience jump (B+). It was far better than POLAND’s high-concept dramedy “Reverse” (B-), which had a great idea but only so-so follow-thru, and ARMENIA’s boring 50-minute documentary, “Autumn of the Magician” (D). I hope to see the nominees from ESTONIA (DVD) and ROMANIA (Netflix) before the end of the year. Eastern Europe didn’t crack the Top Five last year, although Bulgaria made the shortlist.