Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, COTE D'IVOIRE to IRELAND

Computer problems have delayed this post, focusing on the second round of 26 countries, including last year's returning champion (Iran) and powerhouses France and Germany.

27. COTE D’IVOIRE (last submitted 1976) won the Oscar in 1977 (before I was born) for “Black and White in Color”. That film- with a French director and overwhelming French cast and crew- would not even be accepted under today’s rules, and this year the Ivoiriens will be absent for the 36^th year in a row. For the sake of completion, their highest-profile film that I know about is “Ultimatum”, billed as the country’s first-ever action flick. Next year, I hope they do finally return with “Run” by young Franco-Ivoirien director Philippe LaCote. It was selected as one of 15 projects to benefit from additional funding at this year’s Cannes Film Workshop.

28. CROATIA premieres most of its domestic releases annually in July at the Pula Film Festival. Most of these films actually premiere in Croatian cinemas the following Oscar eligibility year (which begins October 1), which is why the two last films I predicted for Croatia weren’t actually eligible. I hate to pick the same film two years in a row, but I think the Croatians will send “Lea and Darija”, a true story about the friendship between two teenage girls (one Jewish, one an ethnic German) who rise to fame in the 1930s while World War II looms. It won some small awards at Pula last year and premiered in Croatian cinemas in January 2012. In second place is the oddly titled “Cannibal Vegetarian”, a very dark thriller which has also gotten good reviews. It’s about an abortionist faced with a VERY serious moral dilemma when one of his patients dies on the operating table. In third place is “Night Boats”, a drama about an elderly couple in their 70s running away from their bleak nursing home. Iceland achieved their only Oscar nod for the similar “Children of Nature”. All three of these films have an excellent chance of representing Croatia and all have premiered already. The Oscar will committee will love “Lea” and “Night Boats" though they may hate “Cannibal”. If the Croatians do choose of the new 2012 premieres from Pula, I think the most likely option would be “Halima’s Path”, about a Bosnian woman searching for her dead son who was killed in the war. They offer her DNA testing but she refuses, since her son was secretly adopted. My prediction (again): “Lea & Darija”.

29. CUBA sends films about once every two years. This year, they don’t have much. Their two highest-profile films are a cult hit zombie-comedy (“Juan of the Dead”) and a film sure to upset Cuba’s Communist authorities (“Une Noche”, whose two young stars disappeared in Miami on the way to an event to promote the film, mirroring the film’s story of two young Cubans who escape to the U.S. by boat). Interestingly enough, “Juan” was in fact co-produced by the national film studio, showing that the Communists do have a sense of humor. Cuba’s other films this year are a strange lot, including a much-maligned abstract biography of Leonardo da Vinci (“Vinci”), a pair of gay-themed films by previously honored directors (flirty “Verde Verde” and the independently produced mystery “Chamaco”) and a film about a man teaching mentally handicapped children to swim (“The Pool”). A stronger choice would be “Fabula”, a romance set in the slums of Havana which won Third Prize at last year’s Havana Film Festival. However, the Cubans have lately tended to prefer to send children’s films, meaning that “And Yet It Moves” (“Y Sin Embargo”) is my prediction. It's about what happens when a schoolboy’s tall tale blossoms out of control. It stars a local Cuban youth acting troupe.

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30. CZECH REPUBLIC has been pretty quiet lately. Though they used to be very successful, they haven’t been nominated in a decade. Bohdan Slama’s “Four Suns” should be considered the favorite. Slama represented the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2005 and the film has enjoyed touting the fact that it is the first-ever Czech film to compete at the Sundance independent film festival. The story revolves around a number of different characters in and around a dysfunctional family. Reviews have been positive but generally unenthusiastic. The big winner at this year’s “Czech Lions” was “Flower Buds”, a similarly-themed film about a diverse series of characters with moral dilemmas, and how their decisions affect those around them. “Long Live the Family”, a black comedy about a family on the run, didn’t do well at the Lions, but it did win Best Picture of 2011 from the Czech Film Critics Association.  Oscar nominee Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) was represented the Czech Republic in 2000, 2004 and 2010. The prolific director makes roughly one film a year, and his latest “The Holy Quartet” (Svata Ctverice) is a romatic comedy which is scheduled to premiere in August. Out of the running: “Polski Film” was the only Czech film to compete in Karlovy Vary, but it’s comedic plot depends in large part on knowing Czech celebrities who are unknown outside the country. “A Night Too Young” got good reviews in Berlin, but it’s 61-minute running time will mark it as too slight. Vladimir Michalek’s “Messenger” (Closing film in Karlovy Vary) would be my top choice, but it’s not scheduled to open in Czech cinemas until October. I half-heartedly predict “Four Suns”, followed by “Flower Buds”, and “Svata Ctverice”.

31. DENMARK produced fewer films this year (less than twenty) but they still have a very competitive race going, including films by one Oscar winner (Bille August, “Pelle the Conqueror”), two Oscar nominees (Henrik Ruben Ganz and Christian E. Christiansen, Short Film nominees in 1999 and 2007) plus Christoffer Boe (selected by Denmark in 2003). Denmark usually chooses a three-film shortlist to heighten the suspense, and this year I’m fairly certain they will be upcoming historical biography “The Passion of Marie” (Bille August), 18^th century costume drama “A Royal Affair” (Berlin) and World War II thriller “This Life” (Karlovy Vary). Two other possibilities: I would be surprised if “A Hijacking”, about a Danish crew being kidnapped by Somali pirates, or “Teddy Bear”, a gentle dramedy about a bodybuilder looking for love in Thailand, made the cut, but they are dark horses.  Thomas Vinterberg’s acclaimed Cannes drama “The Hunt” won’t be eligible until next year. A look at the race: “A Royal Affair” should be considered the favorite. This story of an English princess who marries a crazy Danish price is supposed to be beautiful to look at, and suspenseful to behold. “This Life”, an exciting thriller about a town who join the anti-German resistance, has been a major hit at the box office but has gotten slightly less positive reviews. It will be difficult for Denmark to snub the Oscar-winning August, who is making his first Danish feature in a quarter-century, for “Passion of Marie”, about a famed couple of 19^th century artists. I still predict: “A Royal Affair”, followed by “Passion of Marie”, “This Life”, with “Teddy Bear” in first. The new films by Ganz (dramedy “Excuse Me”), Boe (horror-thriller “Beast”) and Christiansen (tepid thriller  “ID:A”) probably won’t factor in.

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32. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC rejoined the Oscar race for the first time since 1995 and they have had a great film year this year with a few well-reviewed possible films. I predict they will enter the race with “Ana’s Struggle”, the story of a poor flower seller whose beloved teenage son is killed by a drug dealer, and her struggle against a corrupt system to seek justice. They could just as easily send “The King of Najayo”, a gritty drama about a crime lord who continues to run a gangland empire from prison, while the upcoming “Lust”, about a teacher who moves to the countryside, has an outside chance as well.

33. ECUADOR (last submitted 2004) has the second smallest film industry in South America (whither Paraguay) and they’ve only ever submitted two films, including Sebastian Cordero’s riveting thriller “Cronicas”, starring John Leguizamo. This year, I predict Ecuador will return to the race, as they have released two very well-regarded films. The first is the latest from Sebastian Cordero- “Pescador”- which spent seven months on the film festival circuit before finally opening at home in Ecuador. It’s a black comedy about a rural fisherman who teams up with a female con artist to earn money from cocaine that has mysteriously washed up on the beach. They could also choose the intriguing “In the Name of the Daughter”, about a dedicated Communist who insists on spreading her ideals to her entire family and her neighborhood….and who just happens to be a 9-year girl. Two critical hits in one year is great for Ecuador. I think they’ll send “Pescador”.

34. EGYPT’s nominee is often difficult to predict, and I wonder if the Egyptian Academy (which often enjoys choosing challenging films featuring controversial subject matter) will be affected by the recent Islamic shift in the country (romance “A Whole One” was recently pulled from theatres to be re-censored). Although Egypt produces the most films in the Arab world, the number of quality films seems to have been overtaken by Morocco. In any case, Egypt has three front-runners this year (less than usual), all of which are connected in one way or another to the recent revolution. The front-runner is clearly “After the Battle”, which competed in Cannes and which is the complex story of a town outside of Cairo which includes those who fought for and against the recent revolution. “Asmaa”, a modestly budgeted drama about an Egyptian woman with HIV and her dilemma about going public with her disease to get a desperately needed operation, has gotten even better reviews as well as praise for tackling a taboo subject and for its brave lead performance. It was directed by a young revolutionary and blogger who was abused in Tahrir Square. The final (and lowest-profile) of the three main contenders is “Cry of an Ant”, a black comedy about a man who returns to Egypt after ten years jailed in Iraq to face problems in Egypt when he tries to join the revolution there. A darker horse is “18 Days”, a series of short films by a diverse group of directors (including the Yousry Nasrallah, director of “After the Battle”) about the Arab Spring in Cairo. It will be a difficult decision for the Egyptians and I hope they enter (they’ve sent films eight of the past ten years) the race and don’t choose a safer, blander choice (like family drama “Palm of the Moon”).  My prediction: the Cannes label will push “Battle” (just barely) to victory over “Asmaa”.

35. ESTONIA is the smallest of the three Baltic Republics, and the only one to regularly participate in this competition (Estonia has sent seven of the past eight years; Latvia + Lithuania sent three each). This year they have a quartet of eligible films, and I’m not sure which one they’ll choose. Will it be “The Idiot”, a surreal artistic film based on a Dostoevsky novel and oft compared to “The Temptation of St. Tony”? Or “Mushrooming”, a political satire/comedy/horror film about politicians lost in the forest? The one with the best festival credentials is international co-production “Lonely Island” (competing in Moscow) about five intersecting stories, although reviews have been mixed.  “Demon”, a psychological drama about a trio of persons confronting a moral dilemma in a casino, is an unknown quantity since it won’t premiere until August. It’s a wide-open race….I really have no idea…..My prediction: “Mushrooming” is the surprise nominee, with favorite “Lonely Island” in second place.

36. ETHIOPIA (last submitted 2010) has a small domestic film industry for local consumption, but they very rarely produce anything for the international market (exceptions: “Teza”, “The Athlete”). I can’t see them sending any of their vulgar comedies or amateurish action films to the competition. For the sake of completion, I’ll choose “Across the Atlantic”, a movie filmed in Washington, DC about Ethiopian immigrants and the problems they face in the U.S., but who knows if that would even qualify as an Ethiopian film?

37. FIJI (last submitted 2005) submitted a film once when they made their first-ever feature film. Although Fiji is well-known as a filming location for Western and Bollywood films, I don’t know that they have any local films this year.

38. FINLAND  has more films eligible than usual (about 30 features plus a few documentaries) but fewer contenders. No film has “broken out” and this year is a wide-open race. I predict the Finns will send “Naked Harbour”, a popular portmanteau film featuring a number of characters and nationalities living through a cold, Finnish winter. One Finnish Ambassador quipped that the dark film shows “everything about Finland he would not want outsiders to see”, but it has proved popular nonetheless. Finland often chooses these character-driven stories for the Oscars. Close behind will be historical drama “Silence”, a Best Film nominee at last year’s Jussi Awards that tells the story of a brigade of civilians tasked with bringing home Finland’s war dead home to be buried after WWII. Unlike most European countries, Finland rarely sends historical dramas to the competition (they send films set in the past, but that’s not the same thing). “The Road North”, a father-son road movie by Mika Kaurismaki (Aki’s brother), will premiere next month. I’ll place it third. Two years ago, Finland chose a documentary. Since none of the films here are universally praised, they may wish to do that again and choose “Forever Yours”, a well-reviewed doc about the lives of foster children which won Best Doc at the Jussis last year. Very dark horses include black comedy “The Storage” whose dark humor is probably too local to play overseas, “Once Upon A Time in the North”, a historical drama set in the 1860s about a Finnish outlaws known as “hajyt”, and “Stars Above” which got mostly tepid reviews despite its Oscary story of three women living in three different eras of the 20^th century.  The biggest film of the year of course is Nazi sci-fi comedy “Iron Sky”, but I don’t think it will come into play here.

39. FRANCE is usually one of the more difficult countries to predict since they have so many options. This year, I see three frontrunners: if they want to choose a critical auteur favorite with big stars, they’ll choose “Rust and Bone”. Directed by Jacques Audiard (“The Prophet”) and starring Marion Cotillard and Matthias Schoenarts (the breakout star of “Bullhead”), “Rust and Bone” received critical acclaim at Cannes 2012 for its peculiar romance of an unemployed and emotionally stunted young man and a recently handicapped whale trainer. If they want to choose a popular audience favorite, they’ll clearly choose “Les Intouchables”, a box-office hit comedy in France and (to a lesser extent) the United States. It’s about another odd couple….this time a quadriplegic millionaire and the petty thief from the projects he hires to be his live-in caretaker. I’ve seen the film and it’s an audience-pleaser with a lot of heart, and one which has gotten universally positive reviews. Though it’s a comedy at its core, It deals with issues serious enough to make it a sentimental contender for Oscar. Their third option is “Polisse”, a crime drama about a journalist working on a story about detectives from the Paris Child Protection Unit, and who becomes a witness to the sad, real-life cases of child abuse in the nation’s capital. “Polisse” was rumored to be France’s first choice last year but it premiered too late. The two dark horses are: “Farewell My Queen” (Berlin 2012), a lavish costume drama and biopic of Marie Antoinette, and “Chicken with Plums”, a live-action drama based on a graphic novel from the creators of “Persepolis”, about the last days of a Persian man’s life. More than any other country, France seeks to get an Oscar nomination each and every year and they’re upset they haven’t made it the past two years (“Declaration of War” probably deserved a nod….the well-meaning ”Of Gods and Men” did not). “Rust” has the reviews, but “Les Intouchables” has the buzz. I think “Les Intouchables” will rep France with “Rust and Bone” in second, “Polisse” a close third, and “Farewell My Queen” a distant fourth. “Renoir” won’t premiere in time.

40. GEORGIA is bragging that their 105-minute “The Forgotten King” is the longest “single take” film in cinematic history. That’s quite impressive if it’s true since the trailer darts back and forth between modern-day times and the 15^th century, and including car chases and shootouts. That selling point alone will probably get the film selected for the Oscars. Last year, I predicted “Salt White”, a drama about a series of characters working a seaside hotel but I think it’s actually eligible this year. It’s been representing Georgia at a number of film festivals and it should come in second this year. Beauty contest dramedy “Keep Smiling” actually sounds the most entertaining, but it probably has too much competition.