2019-2020 Foreign Oscar Predictions (Afghanistan to Congo)

It's that time of year again.....Beginning this summer, over 80 countries from around the world will send their best favorite films to compete for the Best Foreign Language Film category at the 2020 Oscars. Starting this year, the award has been rather confusingly renamed to be the Best International Film, but the rules remain the same....Only films in a Foreign Language may apply. 

Over the years, 121 countries and territories have entered the Foreign Oscar competition. This year, Uzbekistan and Uganda had their national selection committee approved by AMPAS, and three others have been approved in the past without ever sending films (Nigeria since 2014, and Ghana + the United Arab Emirates since 2017).....So they’re here too, for a total of 126. On this site, we try to treat all of them equally. I'll be doing five weekly posts to predict what each country will be sending (or won't be sending) to next year’s Oscars.

Here are the first 25: 

 AFGHANISTAN- "The Orphanage" Earning a spot at Cannes Director’s Fortnight in 2019, it’s difficult to see war-torn Afghanistan selecting anything besides “The Orphanage”, a drama about a Bollywood-obsessed teen living through the turbulent Soviet withdrawal in the 1990s. Director Shahrbanoo Sadat is one of several promising young female Afghan directors making films against all the odds. 

 ALBANIA- “The Delegation” Albania took a year off from the Oscars last year but they are certain to return this year with “The Delegation”, a dark political drama set in the final years of the Communist regime, circa 1990. Few remember that, at the time, Albania was known as the North Korea of Europe, and was virtually closed off from the outside world. As the Communist regime sees the writing on the wall, they pluck a political prisoner from jail and ask him to testify on their behalf to a visiting delegation from Western Europe. Having won awards at Trieste, Warsaw and Tirana, it will likely be Bujar Alimani’s third film to represent Albania. Rural interfaith drama “Shelter Among the Clouds” is also by a previously submitted director, but reviews haven’t been as strong.

 ALGERIA- “The Blessed” Algeria is always a bit confusing because they have relatively few cinemas and relatively stringent censorship rules, making it difficult for the growing number of Algerian films at international film festivals to secure distribution deals at home. “The Blessed” (Les bienheureux) won a few prizes at Venice 2017 but wasn’t released in Algerian cinemas until late 2018….over a year later. Set in the late 2000s, it follows a middle-class family trying to get by in the years following the Algerian Civil War. Algeria and its tiny film industry were very proud to get two films into Cannes this year- feminist drama “Papicha” and the surreal, confusing “Abou Leila”- but neither has a domestic release date and would probably fail to dislodge “The Blessed” anyway. Algeria’s leading director- French-born Rachid Bouchareb- has a silly buddy comedy starring Omar Sy, but it appears to be mostly in English and it isn't an Algerian-majority production.

  ARGENTINA- "La Odisea de los Giles" Argentina has had a surprisingly weak year, and I can’t really decide whether they are more likely to submit popular comedy “The Weasel’s Tale” or upcoming drama/thriller “La Odisea de los Giles”. Director Juan Jose Campanella (deservedly) won a Best Foreign Film Oscar for “The Secret in Their Eyes” in 2010. Instead of making more movies, Campanella has worked mostly in television since then and “Weasel’s Tale” (El cuento de las comadrejas) is his first live-action feature since his Oscar win. “Weasel’s Tale” is a comedy about four aging theatrical types trying to save their beloved mansion from being bought by a young couple. Reviews have been mixed-to-positive but Campanella’s name should be a big draw. The same goes for actor Ricardo Darin, who has starred in more Argentinian submissions than I can count, including their last three nominees (most notably “The Secret In Their Eyes”). Darin and his up-and-coming son Chino Darin have a new movie coming out this August- “The Odyssey of Giles”- about a community that loses everything during the 2001 financial crisis, and their attempt to take revenge on those who profited. Two other potential dark horses include “Family Members” (Berlinale),a queer-themed film about a brother and sister stranded on a long journey and “Rojo”, about a successful lawyer unnerved by the presence of a mysterious private detective investigating his life…But Argentina tends to like their films bigger and both these films are rather small. It’s never wise to bet against Darin…but Campanella could easily get this too. I predict "Giles" for now. 

 ARMENIA- “Lengthy Night” (Erken Kisher) Armenia rebooted their National Film Awards this year after a three-year absence, and the big winner was “Erken Kisher” (Lengthy Night), which appears to be some sort of a triptych drama telling different stories from Armenian history. In June, it was announced as the only domestic feature in competition at the Golden Apricot Film Festival (it now seems to be deleted from the website). I can’t find any English-language sources, but that’s my prediction. Runner-up: at 51 minutes, documentary short “With the Wind” (about a female fisherman) meets the Foreign Film requirements and it won Best Debut at the 2018 Golden Apricot Film Festival and Best Documentary at the 2018 National Film Awards. Armenia also has a couple of little-known dramas (“I’ll Come Back Home”, “About Him or How He Did Not Fear the Bear”) and a big drama about the Armenian Genocide ("Komitas”) that may or may not be released in time. "Komitas" would help Armenia to realize its political goals of broader recognition of the tragedy of 1915….It's a strong possibility for next year. 

 AUSTRALIA- “Buoyancy” English-speaking Australia has managed to find a foreign-language film to send seven years in a row now, with exotic films set in Afghanistan, Bhutan, Germany, Italy, Laos, Vanuatu and the Australian Outback. This year, that trend is sure to continue with “Buoyancy”, a brutal drama set in the international waters between Cambodia and Thailand. “Buoyancy” is about a Cambodian teen trafficked into slavery on a Thai fishing boat. It played in Berlin Panorama, so it’s certain to be selected over Mumbai terrorism drama “One Less God”, which I’ve predicted the past two years but which finally got a domestic release last fall.

 AUSTRIA- “Crush My Heart” As usual, Austria has several diverse options. Will they honor the final performance of a beloved actor like Bruno Ganz (“The Tobacconist”) or a popular actor-turned director they have honored before like Karl Markovics (“Nobadi”)? Will they prefer an expensive costume drama (“Angelo”) or a scrappy indie (“Crush My Heart”)? Or will they choose to go with a film that got play at a major festival like “The Ground Beneath My Feet” (Berlinale)? Last year, the Austrian Academy ignored a number of excellent Oscar options for a “PC” choice, namely anti-Fascist documentary “The Waldheim Waltz”, which I felt was one of last year’s weakest entries. So, my prediction is that Austria sends Gypsy trafficking drama “Crush My Heart” which fits the mold of the grim, realist entries usually preferred by the Austrian Academy. It also arguably has the best reviews of the five contenders. Expect its main competition to come from “Angelo”, the true story of an African child slave adopted by an Austrian Countess in the early 18^th century. Prostitution drama “Joy” and road movie “Lillian” (Cannes) probably have too much English.

 AZERBAIJAN- “End of Season” Oil-rich Azerbaijan has only submitted one film in the past four years but I believe they will return this year with “End of Season”, the debut feature of Elmar Imanov. Imanov had a short film at Cannes in 2014, which is a major achievement for an Azerbaijani director. “End of Season” got warm reviews at Rotterdam this year, where it won the FIPRESCI Prize. The film is about a dysfunctional family in Baku- mother wants to leave to work abroad, son wants to move out of the house, husband is tired of marriage- and is probably the country’s only good option.

 BANGLADESH- “In Spring Breeze” Of course, it’s obvious that Bangladesh should choose “Saturday Afternoon”. Director Mostafa Sarwar Farooki has represented Bangladesh proudly three times and he has a good reputation inside and outside the country. “Saturday Afternoon”, a dramatization of the 2016 terrorist attack on a popular café that shocked the country, has gotten some of the best-ever international reviews for a Bangladeshi film and it won two awards at the Moscow International Film Festival. It’s topical, relatable and reportedly left audiences in tears. Unfortunately, it’s also been banned in Bangladesh.....so it’s not eligible. A similar thing happened to Farooki’s last film “No Bed of Roses” delaying its release by a few months. Hopefully the Censor Board will change its mind, although the reasons for this year’s ban (“harming the country’s reputation”) are more serious than the niggling little legal issues that plagued his previous film. The controversy leaves the door wide open for “In Spring Breeze”, a popular historical film about the Ekushe language movement that inspired Bangladesh's independence movement from Pakistan in 1970. The Bangladeshi Academy tends to steer away from historical films (American audiences are unlikely to understand them) but the ineligibility of “Saturday” and the previous selection of director Tauquir Ahmed make this the probable selection. Other possibilities for Bangladesh: “Debi”, a hit supernatural thriller based on a story by Humayun Ahmed whose work has previously been selected by the Bangladeshi Academy, “Iti Tomari Dhaka”, a series of shorts about life in the capital, and “Namhin Gotrohin”, a drama about the 1971 war for independence,

 BELARUS- “War. To Stay A Human” Belarus unexpectedly returned to the Oscar competition last year after a 22-year absence with “Crystal Swan”, a low-budget film which was one of my own personal favorites of 2018. It’s unclear whether Belarus will remain in the competition but if they send a film it will likely be “War. To Stay a Human” (Война. Остаться человеком), one of two Belarusian features (alongside “Crystal Swan”) to play at last year’s Listapad national film festival. It’s an omnibus of four short films by young filmmakers about World War II, and it was produced by the national film studio. Here’s hoping Belarus stays in the 

 BELGIUM- “Don’t Shoot” As I mention every year, Belgium’s film industry runs itself like two separate countries. The Flemish and Walloon communities have separate memberships in EFP, separate national film awards, and separate filmmaking associations. So, predicting Belgium is difficult. If they choose a film from the Dutch-speaking Flemish side, it’s almost certain to be “Don’t Shoot”, about an old man trying to raise his grandson after a real-life shooting that killed his mother, father and sister. Director Stijn Coninx got an Oscar nomination for “Daens” way back in 1993, the “mass shooting” angle is very topical in the USA, and the film has very strong reviews. Belgium also has a habit of doing an early release for the Oscars, so the Flemish side could also send “U-235” (aka “Torpedo”), an action/war movie about the Belgian resistance helping the U.S. government or Patrice Toye’s intimate drama “Tench”. The smaller, French-speaking Walloon side has more to choose from. The front-runner is, of course, “Young Ahmed”, by the Brothers Dardenne, an introspective look at the motivations of a young Islamist who sets out to murder his teacher. But the Dardennes have never been nominated for an Oscar and “Ahmed” hasn’t gotten as strong reviews as their previous films. “Our Struggles” (Nos batailles), a family drama about a man whose depressive wife leaves him, stars French actor Romain Duris and dominated the Walloon Magritte Awards this year….It seems like a more likely choice. The Walloons could also choose “For a Happy Life”, a small indie about a forbidden romance between two young Muslim Belgians from different backgrounds (Pakistani and North African) or, less likely, mother-son road movie “Keep Going” whose director was selected in 2012. I predict a surprise selection of Coninx’s Flemish “Don’t Shoot”, followed by French-language “Our Struggles” and a stealth early release for “U-235”…..with the favorite- “Young Ahmed”- placing a distant fourth. 

 BHUTAN- “The Red Phallus” Bhutan hasn’t sent a film since 1999 but they could potentially consider sending “The Red Phallus” which premiered at Busan 2018. I’m not sure whether it’s gotten a domestic release or not but it’s about a young woman who clashes with her traditional father (an artisan who makes Buddhist fertility phalluses) over her relationship with a married man. This may be too controversial for the Bhutanese. While the country is fairly progressive, the acclaimed “Hema Hema” was banned for offending traditional values. But "Phallus" would be a good entry. National Film Award winner “The Vested Astrologer” is eligible, but likely won’t be considered.

 BOLIVIA- “Cuando los hombres quedan solos” Bolivia announced at the beginning of the year that 2019 would likely be a record year for national releases- about a dozen. I predict they’ll send “Cuando los hombres quedan solos” (loosely translated as “When Men Are Left Alone”). Filming was completed in 2014 but the film was left unfinished when director/screenwriter Fernando Martinez was killed in an accident a week after filming wrapped. In addition to this sad backstory, the film is also about a subject that resonates with the Bolivian Academy- the aftermath of the military dictatorship. The film is about a former paramilitary raising his two sons alone, and what happens when his estranged wife returns to Bolivia years after fleeing abroad. Two previously submitted directors- Juan Carlos Valdivia (“American Visa”, “Zona Sur” and “Jonah and the Pink Whale”) and Gory Patino (last year’s “Muralla”) also have new films. Mistaken identity thriller “Pseudo” (directed by Patino) seems more likely than the weakly reviewed “Søren” (directed by Valdivia). Upcoming US migration drama “Añoranzas” could also come into play if it gets released. Although I think “los hombres” should win this easily, expect “Anoranzas” to challenge if it gets released before September 30 and if “los hombres” gets sent to the Goyas instead.

 BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Take Me Somewhere Nice” The Bosnians have a difficult decision this year, as most Bosnian films have been made by foreign directors, or by directors from the Serbian half of the country. Although Bosnia is multi-ethnic, I believe that all directors selected for the Oscars have been from the Bosniak Muslim community, with one exception in 2007. I predict Bosnia sends Dutch co-production “Take Me Somewhere Nice” directed by Ena Sendijarević, who emigrated to the Netherlands from Bosnia at the age of 5. The film is about a Dutch-Bosnian girl who visits Bosnia for the first time to see her ailing father and will probably be “Bosnian enough” to represent the country. “Heroes Don’t Die” (by a French filmmaker), “Good Day’s Work” (by a Slovenian filmmaker), “Flesh” and “Borders Raindrops” (both made by filmmakers from the Bosnian Serb republic) could also potentially be considered, if the Bosnians cast a wide net. I predict “Take Me” represents Bosnia, with tragicomic unemployment drama “Good Day’s Work” and thriller “Meninges” as the most likely runner-ups. The race is likely to become clearer once the line-up for the Sarajevo Film Festival is announced in mid-July.

 BRAZIL- “The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao” Even more so than Russia (though less than China), the Brazilian Academy has developed a reputation (true or not) of being politically influenced. For that reason, many pundits are saying that Brazil’s two most acclaimed films- Cannes Jury Prize winner “Bacurau” + Berlinale/Sundance standout “Divine Love”- are both going to be out of luck. I’m not so sure that either the Brazilian "Battle Royale" or the erotic "Handmaid's Tale" would be a good pick for the Oscars. "Bacurau" is a movie about a small town in Brazil’s northeast erased from the map by a futuristic Brazilian dictatorship so the population can be massacred for sport by Western game hunters. The directors are outspoken government opponents and the film has a not-so-subtle political message. Political considerations aside, reviewers say “Bacurau” is weird and wild and yet also didactic and intellectual. Variety recommended the film should include footnotes. As for "Divine Love", Variety says it is “a hot protest against President Bolsonaro's vision for Brazil”. Set three decades in the future, it envisions a frightening futuristic Brazil ruled by a Christian Evangelical cult with unusual sexual proclivities.  The main character is a civil servant who tries to force divorcing couples to remain married. This sexually explicit, neon-colored sci-fi drama may not appeal to President Bolsonaro, but I’m not sure that Oscar voters will care for it either. Period drama “The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao” is far more mainstream and far less politically controversial and it co-stars 89-year old Oscar nominee (and beloved national treasure) Fernando Montenegro, which should push it to the front of the pack. The film isn’t scheduled to be released until November, but I predict Brazil does a qualifying release like they did for “Little Secrets” in 2016. Director Karim Ainouz has been shortlisted several times, and he could be seen as being due. Unlike “Great Mystical Circus” and “Little Secrets”, “Euridice Gusmao” does have good reviews, so it may not be seen as a political choice. Two other strong possibilities include drama “Long Way Home” and controversial biopic “Marighella” (Berlinale 2019). The latter is directed by Wagner Moura ("Elite Squad") and has rather good reviews despite its hacked IMDB score. Brazil usually has a “shortlist” comprising 15-20 films. Others you can expect to see on the list include “Kardec”, “Minha Vida em Marte”, “O Paciente”, “Rend Your Heart”, “Simonal”, and documentary “The Dead and the Others”.

 BULGARIA- “Irina” Bulgaria seems to have a tight four-way race between “Aga”, “Could You Kill”, “The Father”, and- my prediction- “Irina”. “Aga” (Berlinale 2018) is probably the best-reviewed of Bulgaria’s films this year, it has won the most international awards, and it dominated the Golden Rose Film Festival, whose winners usually (but not always) represent Bulgaria at the Oscars. However, this Yakut-language film made by a Bulgarian director in Russia may not be considered sufficiently Bulgarian to win the right to represent the country. “The Father”, a comedy-drama about a widower who believes his wife is trying to contact him from beyond the grave, is from the same team as “Glory”, which richly deserved an Oscar nomination two years ago. It’s premiering at Karlovy Vary this month, but I don’t think it will be released in time to be considered. “Could You Kill” hasn’t won any awards yet, but 78-year old director Ivan Nitchev is a respected figure in Bulgarian cinema whose films have been selected twice without any precursor support. The film, about a group of small-town men who become militiamen to better their community, may resonate with Bulgarian critics. That leaves us with surrogacy drama “Irina” (Warsaw), about a woman who agrees to be a surrogate for a wealthy family to help pay her husband’s hospital bills. I'm pretty confident this will be the Bulgarian representative. Expect “Aga” to come second, with “Could You Kill” in third, and French-language comedy “Saving My Pig” (starring Gerard Depardieu?!) and mystery “Away from the Shore” rounding out the Top Five. Expect “The Father” to contend next year.

 BURKINA FASO- “Duga, les charognards” Burkina Faso hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 1989, but they consider themselves to be the capital of African arthouse cinema. This year’s FESPACO Film Festival in Ouagadougou celebrated its 50^th anniversary as the world' premier festival focused exclusively on African cinema. This year, Burkina Faso had three films in the main competition, including two that won awards: drama “Desrances”, about the civil war in neighboring Ivory Coast, and black comedy “Duga, les charognards”, set in Burkina Faso. They probably won’t send a film, but I’d give the edge to the more “local” Burkinabe film “Duga” about a man going to great lengths to get his recently deceased friend a proper burial.

 CAMBODIA- “In the Life of Music” Two films by Cambodian diaspora filmmakers will likely be duking it out to represent the Kingdom at the 2020 Oscars. American Caylee So has made “In the Life of Music”, a drama starring Cambodian-Canadian actress Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim Saves the World”) about how a traditional song affects the lives of three generations during three different periods in Cambodian history. French director Denis Do has made a beautiful French-language animated film called “Funan”, a fictionalized story based on his family’s experience during the Khmer Rouge genocide. It has major starpower (Louis Garrel, Berenice Bejo) but looks “too French” to qualify. If they want something more fully Cambodian, they could go with female sports biopic “Baokchambab”…but they’ve only selected locally-based Khmer filmmakers twice. "Music" should win this easily. 

 CAMEROON- “Ntarabana” Cameroon hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 1980 and they probably won’t send one this year either. They had one fiction feature and two documentary features competing at the 2019 FESPACO Film Festival. “Miraculous Weapons”, by Cameroon’s most famous international director, appears to be mostly in English so it’s out. Of the documentaries, one is set in Ghana and also in English while the other- Rwandan genocide doc “Ntarabana”- is in Kinyarwanda. So, I guess that’s their most likely entry.

 CANADA- “14 jours, 12 nuits” It’s pretty foolish making predictions for Canada this early, since we don’t have a good idea of what will be eligible until they announce the line-up for the Toronto International Film Festival. The Canadians will often do an Oscar qualifying release for a new film, so it’s difficult to know now what their options are. As a placeholder, I’m going to predict “14 Days and 12 Nights” (14 jours, 12 nuits), a drama starring Anne Dorval as an adoptive mother who travels to Vietnam to find and meet the birth mother of her daughter. It is likely to be released in September and would be a good prediction for TIFF. I currently have family drama “For Those Who Don’t Read Me” (A tous ceux qui me lisent pas) in second place, in large part because it’s co-produced by Denis Villeneuve and Philippe Falardeau, both of whom have been nominated in this category before. It’s about an aging writer who quite suddenly moves in with a single mother and her teenaged son. There’s a question mark hanging over my third prediction, “Great Darkened Days”, which netted Best Picture and Best Director nominations at both the Canadian Screen Awards and the Quebec Iris Awards this year. The story of a draft dodger who flees to the American West, it’s roughly half in English and half in French, so I’m not sure if it’s eligible or not. Adolescent drama “Colony” was the other film that managed double Picture/Director nominations at Canada’s big two Film Awards, although it’s a bit small to represent Canada. Two other previously submitted directors are eligible this year, namely Xavier Dolan (who has represented Canada three times by age 30) and Louise Archambault. Dolan has gotten good but not great reviews for his homoerotic friendship drama “Matthis & Maxime” (Cannes), so I think Archambault (“Gabrielle”) has a better chance of being selected for the upcoming “And the Birds Rained Down”. For now, these are the six major contenders although I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they ignored all of them for a TBD new film that premieres in Toronto right before the end of the year.

 CHAD- Nothing  Chad only has one director of international standing- Mahamat-Saleh Haroun- and Chad has sent his films twice (the dull “Abouna” and the delightful “GriGris”). There was talk of a cinematic renaissance in Chad when oil money started to pour in a few years ago. A classic cinema in the capital was re-opened in 2011, a project for a new regional film school was announced in 2012, and Haroun was appointed Minister of Culture in 2017. Unfortunately, the film school never happened, the cinema closed again in 2018 (re-opening again in 2019) and Haroun resigned as Culture Minister the same year.  Haroun’s last film (“Une saison en France”) was made in France and I don’t think Chad has anything eligible.

 CHILE- “Araña” Last year, everyone was predicting Chile would send coming-of-age drama “Too Late to Die Young” (Best Director, Locarno), not knowing that it wouldn’t be released in Chile until 2019. Now, this year, everyone is predicting the hotly anticipated “Ema”, the latest from Oscar nominee Pablo Larrain (“No”), starring Gael Garcia Bernal. It’s scheduled to premiere in “the second half of 2019”, but it has no release date and I personally think it won't be released until winter, leaving the door wide-open for political thriller “Araña”. “Araña” does have a release date, a critically acclaimed director (Andres Wood, who has represented Chile twice) and a baity story about how a plot against the Pinochet dictatorship in the 1970s affects three friends and the destiny of the whole country.

 CHINA- “The Climbers” I’ve seen all the Chinese submissions since 1992 except for “Red Cherry” (1995) and “The Nightingale” (2014). In the 2000s, the Chinese sent mostly quality films, but things started to go wrong around 2008 when they chose a poorly made nationalist documentary to celebrate the Beijing Olympics. From 2009-2013, they chose big-name directors (whether the movies were good or not) and, after that, they started choosing films seemingly at random.  The past three years, their entries have been embarrassingly bad, which is a shame because Chinese filmmakers continue to make great films. It also makes it nearly impossible to predict the Chinese entry when they choose gonzo action film “Hidden Man” over national treasure Zhang Yimou’s “Shadow” and paint-by-numbers action sequel “Wolf Warrior 2” over Feng Xiaogang’s “I Am Not Madame Bovary”. Add to that the fact that Chinese censors “delayed” (canceled???) the July release of this year's front-runner- “The Eight Hundred”’- because the Communist censors didn’t like it….and I've given up. The past two years, China has selected poorly regarded action movies promoting Chinese nationalism. So, I’m reluctantly predicting “The Climbers”, an action-drama starring Zhang Ziyi as one of a number of Chinese climbers scaling Mount Everest. It premieres at the end of September so China could use the nomination to promote the film. “So Long, My Son” (Best Actor + Actress, Berlinale 2019),  “The Return” (Shanghai 2019), and the four-hour “An Elephant Sitting Still” (Berlinale 2018; Best Picture at the Golden Horse Awards 2018) would all be worthy contenders for a normal country, but China hasn’t gone arthouse in years and the films deal with controversial issues (one-child policy, the civil war with Taiwan, and rural poverty respectively) that China won't want highlighted. “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” (Cannes) could have more luck. Other possibilities: comedy “A Cool Fish”, Kazakh co-production “The Composer” and historical drama remake “Fong Sai Yuk”. Dark horses: “The Whistleblower”, a drama starring Tang Wei ("Lust Caution") about the Chinese exposing Australian corruption, is a dark horse if it’s more than 50% in Chinese. These are likely all wrong but "The Climbers" is my prediction....unless it's really good whereupon China will pick something else.

 COLOMBIA- “Monos” For the past few years, Colombia has announced a shortlist of three or four films that will compete to represent the country at the Oscars. This year, those are likely to be “Hermanos”, “Monos”, “El piedra”, and “Wandering Girl”. Ultimately, I think they’ll choose grim hostage drama “Monos” (Sundance, Berlin), a disturbing film about a group of armed teens and their American hostage in the Colombian countryside. Reviews have been strong, and the Colombian Academy has preferred serious films as of late. I think the upcoming drama “Hermanos” has the next best chance. It’s about a man who returns to his small hometown after being released from prison. “Wandering Girl”, a drama about three adult women taking their orphaned half-sister on a road trip to go live with her aunt, probably has a better chance at the Goyas, while “El piedra”, a father-son boxing drama will be happy just to make the list. Other Colombian films that could make the shortlist include action movie “Alma de Heroe”, Cannes family drama “Litigante” and “Rio Seco” (Cartagena) but I don’t think they will be seriously considered. "Monos" is the clear frontrunner. 

 CONGO DR- “Maki’la” The Democratic Republic of the Congo submitted a film once in 1997, but never again since. They had two films premiere at Berlinale 2018 (a major achievement) and these same two films- drama “Maki’la” and documentary “Kinshasa Makombo”- represented the country at FESPACO 2019. It’s my understanding that “Maki’la” had an avant-premiere in Kinshasa in September but hasn’t done a qualifying release. So, like last year, I’m predicting that to be the Congolese entry. After December’s presidential election, opposition documentary “Makombo” may now be allowed to be screened in the country. Anyway, they probably won’t send either.