Monday, July 22, 2019

2019-2020 Foreign Oscar Predictions (Mexico to Saudi Arabia)

And here's Group 4.....

  MEXICO- “The Good Girls”  For the first time in Oscar history, Mexico is the Foreign Film returning champion. Mexico will announce its longlist in August but most Oscar watchers see this as a two-way race between “The Good Girls” and “The Chambermaid”, both of which have been representing Mexico at innumerable international film festivals, including Toronto. The two female-helmed films also faced off at the 2019 Ariel Awards where both were clobbered by “Roma” (although “Good Girls” won Best Actress, defeating Oscar nominee Yalitza Aparicio). “Good Girls” is about an image-conscious socialite trying to keep up appearances while her wealthy family goes broke during the Mexican financial crisis of the 1980s. “The Chambermaid” is a character study of a hotel maid working at a fancy hotel. I'm picking “Good Girls” which has gotten slightly better reviews. Plus I’m not sure Mexico will want to pick films two years in a row about a poor but proud maid. If there's a shocker spoiler, it could be "The Gasoline Thieves", a gritty thriller which was quite well-received at Tribeca 2019. Also likely to feature on the longlist: fiction features “Buy Me A Gun”, “Chicuarotes”, “The Mongolian Conspiracy” (starring Damien Alcazar and Eugenio Derbez), “This Is Not Berlin” and documentaries “Mamacita” and “Ayotzinapa”. 

  MOLDOVA- “Beautiful Corruption” Moldova participated in the Oscar competition in 2013 and 2014 and then disappeared. On the bright side, they’ve scored two nominations in a row at the Russia Nika Awards for Best Film from the former USSR. Prior to that, they’d never been nominated in the award’s 30-year history. This year’s nominee was “Beautiful Corruption”, a drama about a man who goes outside the law to achieve his goals in corrupt Moldova. It was co-funded by the United States. Its release dates are confusing; apparently it premiered in late September 2018 with free screenings and then did a commercial run in November 2018. Anyway, it’s Moldova’s most logical choice. If it’s not eligible, perhaps they’ll send “Resentment”, a micro-budgeted indie about a woman who marries a soldier.

  MONGOLIA- “Out of Paradise” Mongolia has sent films a total of three times. I’m going to make the same prediction I made last year and say that Mongolia sends “Out of Paradise”, which won the Grand Prize at the Shanghai International Film Festival in 2018. That’s a major achievement for Mongolian cinema, although I can’t find any information on when (or if) it screened at home. The film, directed by a Swiss-based Mongolian filmmaker, is about a rural couple who travel to the capital for a medical procedure they cannot afford. I notice many people are predicting Qunan Wang’s “Ondog” (Berlinale), but that film was made in the Chinese region of Inner Mongolia, which is different from the independent country of Mongolia. The big winner at the national film awards was “Top Secret 2: The Battle of Baitag Bogd” (winning Picture, Director and Actor) but it was eligible last year. Mongolia has never selected a genuinely local film, but rural dramas “Khiimori” (Хийморь) and “Blue Destiny” (Хѳх тавилан) have beautiful trailers (though they likely don’t have English subtitled versions). Oscar nominee Byambasuren Davaa (who directed two of Mongolia’s three submissions) has a new film in production (“Veins of the World”) but it won’t be ready in time.

 MONTENEGRO- “Borders, Raindrops” Production is way up in Eastern Europe’s tiniest country, and the government is providing additional funding as well. Unfortunately, people aren’t going to see local films; last year’s Oscar contender “Iskra” sold a total of 194 tickets. This year, I expect Montenegro will be considering four films: “Borders Raindrops” (Sarajevo), “Lazy Guy” (which represented the country at the country’s biggest film festival in Herzeg Novi), “Neverending Past” (Montreal) and “You Have the Night” (Venice 2018). Triptych drama “Neverending Past” has the starpower of Lazar Ristovski, and migrant worker drama “You Have the Night” played at a Class A festival, but the best reviews have gone to “Borders, Raindrops”, a meditation on the uselessness of the new borders that divide the once-united peoples of Yugoslavia. This isn’t likely to interest Oscar voters but it's my pick to rep Montenegro. “Neverending Past” has a shot at second place.

 MOROCCO- “Adam” Morocco is always confusing because of their delayed release system. Movies will often take a year or two to get released in national cinemas after premiering at a film festival. So, movies like psychological thriller “Des…Espoirs” (which premiered at the 2016 Festival of Film in Tangier) and drama “Volubilis” (which premiered at the 2017 Venice Film Festival) are eligible this year. Both of these directors have been selected before. But most of this year's Moroccan contenders have no release date. The two big winners at this year’s Festival of Film were Paralympic documentary “We Could Be Heroes” (Best Picture) and “The Healer” (Jury Prize, Best Director), about three eccentric characters living in an impoverished mining town. Neither has been released in cinemas and it’s unclear when they will be. The same goes for Morocco’s two Cannes entries- “Adam” (produced by Nabil Ayouch, Morocco’s leading international director) and “The Unknown Saint”. And for two more films by previously submitted directors- “De sable et de feu” (by 76-year old Souheil Ben-Barka who made Morocco’s first-ever Oscar entry 40 years ago) and “Nadira”. And also for several other high-profile entries like “Catharsys” (aka “Jamal Afina”), “Urgent" (Marrakech), and “Jahilya” (Cairo). So, it all depends on what makes it into cinemas. If all of these films were released, the obvious choice would be “Adam”, about a bakery owner who finds herself unexpectedly helping a young pregnant woman. If we just go by what has been released so far (as of July), then I think last year’s Film Awards winner “Volubilis” will be selected followed by “Stateless” (aka “Apatride”), about a young woman trying to find a group of long-lost relatives.  So for now, I’ll predict the producers of “Adam" get a qualifying release, while the others wait until next year.

 MOZAMBIQUE- “Resgate” In 2017, Mozambique became the first of Africa’s Portuguese-speaking countries to send a film to the Oscars. In the past year, the country has been bombarded with floods and cyclones and it’s unlikely they’ll enter. However, it seems that “Resgate” (aka “Rescue” or “Redemption” in English), by a young filmmaker trying to encourage indie-style filmmaking in Mozambique, got a domestic release in the capital this summer. It’s about an ex-con forced to return to a life of crime to take revenge on a neighborhood crime boss. They could also select arthouse “Our Madness” (which I predicted last year), though I don’t think that ever screened in Mozambique.

NEPAL- “Prasad” Nepal doesn’t have any movies on the film festival circuit this year (next year you can expect “A Year of Cold”) so they’ll probably use the Oscars to promote one of their local films. It seems the best-reviewed film of the year is “Prasad”, about a newly married couple who discover they have fertility problems. It has represented the country at some South Asian film festivals and gotten warm reviews at home, where most movies are formulaic Bollywood-style rom-coms and low-budget action movies. Others that could be selected include “Bulbul”, a social drama about a strong woman forced to take her care of her sick father-in-law while her husband works abroad, or “Gopi”, about a middle-class man trying to keep his family’s traditional dairy business alive.

  NETHERLANDS- “Sheep Hero” I was busy researching the Netherlands when they suddenly announced an early 9-film shortlist filled with obscure titles. Most of the films I was tracking- including Polish-language “Light as a Feather” which I was probably going to predict- didn’t make the list. The exception was “My Extraordinary Summer with Tess” (Berlinale) a kid-oriented family film about the friendship between a boy and a girl who meet during a summer vacation at the beach. Reviews have been excellent and the Dutch do these youth dramas quite well, but I really doubt this kind of adolescent drama will appeal to AMPAS. I have a hunch that dark horse documentary “Sheep Hero” will be the one. As of last year, docs submitted in the Foreign Film category qualify automatically to compete for Documentary Feature and that would be a wonderful reward for this intimate story about one of the Netherlands’ last sheep farmers, whose idyllic life is being ruined by worries about profit margins and Kafkaesque European bureaucracy. I’m rooting for the "Sheep". I think three other shortlisted films have a chance: (1)- “Kabul, City in the Wind”, a documentary about daily life in Kabul by a Dutch-Afghan filmmaker could benefit (or split the vote) from the same regulations as “Sheep Hero”, (2) “Take Me Somewhere Nice” (Rotterdam), about a Dutch-Bosnian girl who visits Bosnia to meet the sick father she’s never met; the Dutch should talk to the Bosnian Academy because I think this will be their submission; (3)- “Open Seas”, a drama based on a popular novel about three friends whose lives are changed when one of their fathers dies suddenly. As for the other films on the shortlist, adolescent dramas “Bo” and “Romy’s Salon” will be overshadowed by the higher-profile “Tess”…..The comedic ”De Libi” doesn’t look serious enough, and alcoholic thriller “Bloody Marie” has divisive reviews.

 NEW ZEALAND- “Vai” New Zealand obviously makes most of their films in English, but they’ve managed to find a foreign-language film to submit six times since their Oscar debut in 2011. This year, it's nearly certain they will send “Vai”, a series of short films made by eight women from seven different Pacific island countries- Cook Islands, Fiji, Niue, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and, of course, New Zealand. Each film tells the story of a woman named Vai, at a different stage of her life in each exotic island country. This really looks like a beautiful film and is certainly one of the ones I most want to see this year. The Kiwis have a lot of films this year focusing on Pacific island cultures (“Take Home Pay”, “Same But Different”, “Brown Boys” focus on the Samoan community, while “Stranded Pearl” is set in the Cook Islands) but I believe all of these are in English.

  NICARAGUA- “Las Sandinistas” Nicaragua is the only Latin American country that has been absent for more than five years (unless you count Puerto Rico; see below). I don’t think Nicaragua has produced a fiction feature since 2014, although they do have a strong record of documentary film-making. With political turmoil at home, and worsening relations with the United States, they’ll surely be absent but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Las Sandanistas!”, a documentary about how women fighters from the 1979 revolution are working to achieve social justice today. The director is an American woman and I’m not sure it has screened in Nicaragua, making its chances even weaker. 

 NIGER- “Ma belle mere, ma co-epouse” Niger was the surprise debutante of last year’s Oscar competition, and I heard their entry was really good! Impoverished Niger is unlikely to become a regular participant at the Oscars, but they could consider sending “Ma belle mère, ma co-épouse” (loosely translated as “In a Marriage with My Mother-in-Law”), about a domineering mother who arrives in her son’s village to demand that he divorce his beloved wife. It was one of five Nigerien entries at FESPACO 2019.

   NIGERIA- “King of Boys” In 2014, Nigeria announced with much fanfare that a selection committee had been approved by AMPAS to send Nigerian films to the Oscars. Since then, they have sent exactly zero films. According to some estimates, Nigeria makes more films than the USA or China but most are low-budget and/or straight-to-video. Most would be unable to meet AMPAS’ screening requirements. As for language, many Nigerian films are in Pidgin English mixed with African languages and AMPAS has already determined that English Creole languages don’t count as a foreign language, even if they require standard English subtitles. I don’t think this will be the year Nigeria sends their first film....but if they do, I see two possibilities. “King of Boys” is a sprawling three-hour epic about a female crime boss, and one of the biggest Nigerian movies of the year. “Oga Bolaji” is a smaller drama (mostly in Yoruba) about a musician who meets a 7-year old girl. It represented Nigeria at the NYC African Film Festival. Looking at the trailers, they likely have enough “foreign language” to qualify.  

 NORWAY- “Out Stealing Horses” Norway is likely to choose “Out Stealing Horses” for a number of reasons, including excellent reviews following its Berlin premiere, the starpower of Swedish actor Stellan Skarsgård, and the fact that it was just revealed as the favorite for the Amanda Awards with ten nominations. Director Hans Petter Moland has been passed over twice by the Norwegian Academy in very close races and they will probably feel he is due. The film is about a widower who moves to the Swedish countryside and stirs up some long-forgotten memories. It will appeal to the older members of the Academy. The Norwegians usually announced a three-film shortlist, which I expect will include the upcoming “Beware of Children” (which wasn’t eligible for the Amandas) about the aftermath of an accident in which one teenager kills another, and “Amundsen”, a box-office hit about the life of explorer Roald Amundsen. Reviews haven’t been very good, but “Kon-Tiki”- a similar film by the same director- got Norway its most recent Oscar nomination.  “Harajuku”, about a Japan-obsessed Norwegian girl who reconnects with her estranged father, did very well at the Amanda Awards and could easily slip into the Top Three. Unlikely but possible: father-son addiction drama “As I Fall”, espionage thriller “The Spy”, disaster sequel “The Quake” (the follow-up to 2015 submission “The Wave”), and Sonja Henie biopic “Sonja the White Swan”. 

 PAKISTAN- “Laal Kabootar” The Pakistani Academy doesn’t have much to choose from this year so I’m predicting “Laal Kabootar”, a well-reviewed indie thriller about a cab driver who teams up with a beautiful young widow seeking revenge. I can't think of a Pakistani film with better reviews this year, and it seems like an exciting, fun film to represent Pakistan’s slowly growing film industry. In second place: action-thriller “Gumm: In the Middle of Nowhere”, about a man who wakes up next to a dead body, a large bag of cash and no memory of what happened the night before. Reviews are mixed-to-positive and it’s also the only Pakistani film that’s gotten any play outside the country this year. It also sounds like it would be a strong candidate for an American remake. In third place: animated “3 Bahadur: Rise of the Warriors”, a children’s animated film directed by Pakistan’s only Oscar winner, documentarian Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy. Less likely: soap opera “Baaji” and revenge thriller “Tevar”.

 PALESTINE- “Screwdriver” Palestine has a rather easy decision. “Screwdriver” is a drama by a talented young director about a Palestinian who tries to adjust to normal life after 15 years in an Israeli prison. It has gotten good reviews, loads of festival play (Toronto, Venice, Carthage), and it checks the Palestinian nationalist card. “Reports on Sarah and Saleem” (Best Picture, Durban), a thriller about a love affair between a married Palestinian Arab man and a married Jewish woman, also has amazing reviews and awards but it’s likely too controversial. European co-production “It Must Be Heaven”, by mysteriously acclaimed director Elia Suleiman (whose films I do not like), has barely any Palestinian crew besides the director and it has an awful lot of English. This should easily go to “Screwdriver”.

  PANAMA- “Decembers” Last year I predicted “Decembers” (Diciembres), a movie about how a death during the 1989 American invasion of Panama continues to affect the lives of three people a decade later. The movie didn’t get released until December 2018 so it is eligible this year. This is an issue that’s important to Panama so I think it will make an ideal Panamanian submission. They also have about a dozen new releases this year (quite a lot for them). Half of these are documentaries and indeed three of Panama’s five Oscar submissions have been docs. For this reason, “Inland” (Tierra Adentro), about the beautiful but dangerous border region between Panama and Colombia is another strong possibility. Unlikely but possible: documentary “Panama Radio” and family drama “Todos Cambiamos”.

 PARAGUAY- “Cadete Amarilla, mi hijo” As of July, I only know of one local film that has premiered in Paraguayan cinemas this year, and that’s horror anthology “Oscuridad” which would be an interesting but highly unlikely choice. A few more local features are scheduled to be released sometime this year- light family comedy “Orsai”, horror film "Morgue" and documentary “Cadet Amarilla, My Son”. They could also consider screwball sex comedy “Original Sin” which is the only Paraguayan film that has appeared at international festivals this year but which hasn’t played at home, or “Gracias Gauchito”, a 19th century western made in Paraguay with an Argentine director. I wanted to predict thriller “El supremo manuscrito” (Your Silent Past) about two academics trying to locate a lost manuscript, but it was just announced that it will be released on October 10. So I’m going with doc “Cadet Amarilla”, about the assassination of a young soldier in 1988. Paraguay has selected a documentary once before.

  PERU- “Retablo” Eighteen months after its premiere at the Lima Film Festival in 2017 and over a year after winning a Crystal Bear at Berlinale 2018, LGBT drama “Retablo” finally got a release in Peruvian cinemas in May 2019. This Quechua-language drama about the strained relationship between a traditional father and son has possibly won more awards internationally than any Peruvian film in history, making it the de facto frontrunner. For now, the two films I thought would be its chief competition aren’t even eligible: (1)- “Song Without A Name”, about a new mother who teams up with a journalist to find her stolen baby, premiered at Cannes, while (2)- “Mataindios”, about a village trying to organize a festival to lift a curse from their town, won Best Peruvian Feature at the Lima Film Festival last year. Neither has a release date scheduled, making “Retablo” even more of a sure thing. Dark horses: indigenous documentary “Mothers of the Land” premiered at Berlin, while “Norte”, about an archaeologist who gets a chilly reception from family after returning from abroad. Interestingly enough, four out of five of these films are about indigenous communities. 

 PHILIPPINES- TBD


 POLAND: "Legions” As of July, Poland has plenty of films they could send, but none that really stand-out or that have gotten really great reviews. But Poland often chooses late releases or movies that will premiere after the deadline; in five of the past ten years they did a “cheat” early release for their Oscar submission. So I think they’re going to pick something brand-new and untested. Will it be “Corpus Christi”, “Legions”, or “Pilsudski”? “Legions” and “Pilsudski” are historical drama set in 1918 when Poland regained its independence. The more expensive “Legions” follows a love triangle among two independence fighters and a local woman, while “Pilsudski” is a biopic of Poland’s first President. “Legions” sounds more relatable to international audiences and has double the budget of “Pilsudski". Also, the director is Vice-President of the Polish Filmmakers Association so that should give him a leg up. The upcoming “Corpus Christi” is another strong option. It's about a reformed criminal who, due to a case of mistaken identity, becomes the new parish priest of a small village. If none of these new movies find favor with the Polish Academy, three already-released options include (1)- “Dolce Fine Giornata”, a Cannes drama about a Nobel laureate whose remarks about terrorism spark a national controversy, (2)- “Ether”, a historical drama about the sinister use of medicine for political power. It's directed by 80-year old Krisztofer Zanussi who has represented Poland four times; and (3)- “The Messenger” (Kurier), a WWII drama about a Polish uprising against the Nazis. Unlikely dark horses: medieval drama “The Mute”, family drama “Pardon”, small-town mystery “Dark Almost Night”, and the “Waltz with Bashir”-esque animated docudrama “Another Day of Life”. My predictions for Poland's Top Five: “Legions”, “Corpus Christi”, “Dolce Fine Giornata”, "Ether" and “Pilsudski”. 

  PORTUGAL- “A Herdade” Portugal never poses much of a threat in this category. On the very rare occasions where they have a serious contender, they usually send something else.  This year, the Portuguese have plenty to choose from- I count nine films that could easily represent the country- but I doubt any of them will have the chance to win Portugal their first Oscar nomination. In alphabetical order, the Top Five contenders are: “Ashore”, a documentary about a rural fisherman’s life in modern-day Portugal, “Empire Hotel”, a drama-thriller set in the former Portuguese colony of Macau, “The Homestead” (A Herdade), the soon-to-be-released saga about 40 years in the history of a wealthy family, from the fall of the dictatorship in 1975 to the present-day, “Pedro e Ines” (The Dead Queen), a large-scale royal historical drama and “Rage”, a drama set in the 1950s in an impoverished southern town and which won Best Picture at the National Film Awards.  I think rural drama “The Homestead” will be selected, though wouldn’t be surprised if they went with the spectacle of “Pedro & Ines” or “Ashore” simply to make it eligible for the Documentary Feature category. Unlikely but possible: “Diamantino” is original and campy and has played at a ton of festivals….but it’s a terrible film.  Comedy-drama “Parque Meyer” has good reviews but is far lighter than what the Portuguese Academy usually sends. “A Portuguese Woman” is baity but has mixed reviews. “Variações”, an upcoming film about the life of a famed Portuguese musician who died of AIDS, is an unknown quantity.

 PUERTO RICO- “Angelica” Puerto Rico was unfairly barred from the Oscar competition in 2011 and AMPAS has refused overtures from the island to be invited back. Puerto Rico has roughly the same political status as Greenland, they have an established domestic film industry, and have earned an Oscar nomination (unlike, say, Korea or Romania) so it’s really an explicable decision. This was a very weak year for Puerto Rico. They have a few local comedies but they probably wouldn’t have entered the Oscar race this year. If they did, I’d guess they’d send “Angelica”, a drama about  the difficulties of being a mixed-race woman in Puerto Rican society. It played in a few Latin-themed film festivals in 2016/2017 before finally getting a brief cinematic release in October 2018.

  ROMANIA- “The Whistlers” I see four main contenders for the Romanian nomination. My prediction is “The Whistlers”, a dark comedy directed by Corneliu Porumboiu and starring Vlad Ivanov (“4 Months, 3 Months, 2 Days”). Porumboiu has a strong filmography but has only been selected once before. The movie was the only Romanian title in Cannes this year. It concerns a crooked cop visiting a remote Spanish village filled with people who speak a strange hissing/whistling dialect. It’s a good deal lighter than what Romania usually sends, but the Cannes cache should see it through. It’s three main competitors are “Arest”, a grim Communist-era drama about a man unjustly imprisoned while on a family vacation, “The Moromete Family”, winner of Best Picture at Romania’s Gopo Awards and a sequel to a beloved classic, and “Queen Marie of Romania”, a glossy historical drama set to premiere in September. The latter three all have at least one major handicap. “Arest” has the best reviews but it has won no awards and gotten virtually zero festival play. “The Moromete Family” is aimed at a domestic audience and American audiences will have no nostalgia of affection for the 1987 original. The trailer for “Queen Marie” is roughly 50% in Romanian and 50% in English, so it’s unclear if it’s even eligible (English-language immigration drama “Lemonade” is not). I predict “The Whistlers”, with “The Moremete Family” in second, “Queen Marie” in third, “Arest” in fourth, and “Monsters” a Berlinale drama about a failed relationship, rounding out their Top Five . Less likely: “Love 1: Dog” (by previously selected Florin Serban) and health care drama “Thou Shalt Not Kill”.


 RUSSIA- "Beanpole" Russia has one of the easiest decisions among the large countries. I’m fairly certain they will choose “Beanpole”, a grim and difficult to watch drama about a nurse with PTSD, set in a hospital immediately after the end of World War II. The film won two major awards at Cannes Un Certain Regard (FIPRESCI and Best Director) and the film fits the Russian Academy stylistically….For the past decade, they have chosen films which are unrelentingly dark, grim and hopeless…and very often about World War II. "Beanpole" is also arguably the best-reviewed Russian film of the year. It’s main competition comes from “Anna’s War”, a very different kind of WWII movie. It's about a 6-year old Jewish girl who survives a pogrom and tries to survive the war in hiding. It dominated both the Russian Nika Awards and the Golden Eagle Awards, although reviews have been much weaker among foreign critics than those inside Russia. I really think Russia will select one of these two, but dark horses include Pavel Lungin’s “Leaving Afghanistan”, anti-NATO action movie “The Balkan Line”, hostage-taking thriller “The Factory”, fictional biopic “The Humorist”,  and “The Man Who Surprised Everyone”, a Nika nominee about a man who disguises himself as a woman to cheat death. There were three Russian premieres at the Moscow International Film Festival (“Vongero: The Outbreak”, “Sunday” and Yakut-language “The Sun Above Me Never Sets”) but I don’t think any are high-profile enough to be chosen. My Top Five: “Beanpole”, “Anna’s War”, “The Humorist”, “Leaving Afghanistan” and “The Balkan Line”. 

 SAUDI ARABIA- “The Last Visit” Wow! We have a competitive race in Saudi Arabia! Movie theatres were banned in Saudi Arabia for decades until the King allowed them to re-open in April 2018. Despite the ban, Saudi Arabia has entered two excellent movies to the Oscars in 2013 and 2016, using cultural centers and foreign compounds to qualify. This year, Saudis premiered their first local film at Saudi cinemas (“Roll ‘Em”) and they had films competing in Karlovy Vary (“Last Visit”) and Cairo (“Amra and the Second Marriage”, by the director of their wonderful 2016 submission “Barakah Meets Barakah”). There’s also “The Great Muse”, which I predicted last year but which didn’t get screened at home until this past spring. I’m rooting for “Amra”, which The Hollywood Reporter described as “The Handmaid's Tale rebooted as a Coen brothers comedy”. Sounds great! Its story of a jaded housewife upset with her husband’s second marriage has a decidedly feminist slant, and its jibes at drugs and religion might make it a bit too controversial. “Roll ‘Em”, about a filmmaker scouting Saudi’s most liberal city of Jeddah, seems a bit too arthouse.  In the end, I think “Last Visit”, about a man visiting his dying father with his adolescent son and its look at Islamic traditions, is most likely to score the third Saudi nod. "Roll 'Em" or “The Great Muse”, a topical look at a high-school graduate confused by his post-school options, may be selected if “Last Visit” doesn’t meet the screening eligibility requirements by September 30. 


POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Every year there are fewer and fewer countries that could submit for the first time. From this group, the obvious option would be “Mercy of the Jungle”, a landmark film from RWANDA about two soldiers stranded behind enemy lines during the bloody Congolese civil war. The film won the Grand Prize at the FESPACO International Film Festival (Africa’s most prestigious) and also screened in Toronto. It would be a proud first submission for Rwanda. Less likely: “Zayana”, a feminist-themed film and the first-ever co-production between the Sultanate of OMAN and India. 

5 comments:

shahar said...

Your blog is amazing. I have no idea how you manage to collect all this data but am very grateful . you are a source of many recommendations and i wait for your blog every year.
thank you very much.

Sankofa said...

There are more countries with possibilities to debut: Vanuatu (Abomination), Northern Mariana Islands (The forgotten island), Tonga (the documentary Leitis in waiting), Faroe Islands (Illir Andar), Liechtenstein (the documentary Fearless journey), Andorra (the documentary Entre Muntanyes), El Salvador (Pablo's word), Martinique (the documentary Resourceful youth), Curacao (the documentary Calling), Jamaica (the documentary Last street), Bahrain (Turbal Rayeh Jay), Qatar (the documentary Jihad in Hollywood), Maldives (Leena), Myanmar {Burma} (Mystery of Burma: beyond the Dotehtawady), Brunei (Hari Minggu Yang Ke-Empat), Macau (A City Called Macau), Libya (the documentary Freedom Fields), Angola (The chosen one), Guinea-Bissau (the documentary Prétu Funguli), Cape Verde (The two brothers), Somalia (the documentary Live from Mogadishu), Madagascar (Haingosoa), Reunion (the documentary Dann Fon Mon Ker), Namibia (The White Line), Lesotho (This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection),Burundi (the documentary Uncertain Future), Republic of the Congo {Congo-Brazzaville} ((the documentary In the middle of dark), Mali (the documentary Africa Mia), Zimbabwe (Kushata KweMoyo) and Sierra Leone (the documentary Survivors). Moreover, in Greece you forgot the winner of Greek Academy Pity that has more possibilities even from Her job because it is written by the Oscar nominated co-writer of Lobster Efthymis Filippou. Moreover, the Greek mediocre horror didn't get best Greek film of Thessaloniki Film festival because nowadays there is no Greek film winner there, it is the Greek Academy that chooses, it just got audience award Greek film, it's average, it doesn't have a chance.

dzong2 said...

Thanks Sankofa,

I don't think any of those countries are likely to debut this year, with the possible exception of Namibia's "The White Line". Many of the countries you mention (Libya, Somalia) do not have functioning cinemas that would be able to meet the screening requirements. Others (the Northern Marianas) are not eligible because of AMPAS' rule against films from US territories or "regions" of other countries (Martinique, Reunion, which are part of France), while others (Jamaica) are in English. Countries have to apply to AMPAS to form a recognized committee, and I just don't see Andorra or Guinea-Bissau or Liechtenstein doing that.

I predicted "Pablo's Word" would debut for El Salvador last year when it was eligible...but they didn't send it.

According to IMDB, "Pity" from Greece was also eligible last year. To be eligible this year, films must have been released in their home countries on or after October 1, 2018. According to IMDB, "Pity" was released three days too early on September 28, 2018.

We'll probably find out what Greece chooses later this week or early next week! Thank you for reading.

Sankofa said...

Thank you for replying and congratulations for your gr8 block. As for my debuting countries, Greenland, Kosovo and Hong Kong have quite similar political status as Reunion, Martinique and Northern Mariana Islands and they keep on sending. I guess the biggest obstacle is for US overseas territories, so Northern Mariana Islands is most in danger, like Puerto Rico that tries to come back. I hope Academy will lift these bans. As for Somalia and Libya, there are similar situations about theaters in Syria, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, and they managed to send. I know that you put El Salvador's film before, but I guess they may send it this year. I agree that most of these 30 debuts of mine have difficulties but Myanmar with so many choices seems the most likely to debut. The same goes for Vanuatu that looks so interesting and probably screened there (don't forget that the very first Vanuatu film nominated for the co-producing country Australia and probably they wanna take advantage of this situation). In addition, I mentioned a mainly Creole language doc of Jamaica, although I know there is difficulty for English Creole to be accepted, but this year's Austria is more in English. At last but not least, actually I'm Greek and Greek committee sends previous year's film, so Pity is eligible for this year's 2019 films and they only send any of the 5 Greek Academy nominations (most of the time not the winner). Thus this means the two you mention, "Her job" and "Still river" but also "1968", "Free subject" and the winner "Pity". Greece will go either into a previous Academic nomination writer (Pity) or commercial big films (1968) or social (Her work). I hope for the latter.

Sankofa said...

I forgot to add that for Sudan, indeed it has possibilities to debut with the documentary you mentioned but also with the feature arty festival film "akasha".
As for the dependencies along with Reunion, Martinique and Northern Mariana Islands that I referred to, in the same political status are Curacao and Macau, so all of them indeed are in danger for debuting, but with Hong Kong, Kosovo and Greenland sending, you'll never know.
Mentioning Vanuatu that represented a co-producing country instead and maybe they wanna take advantage of it and debut, in the same category is Myanmar, that represented Taiwan (Ice poison), so both of these countries I guess wanna follow the path of Laos. Laos after representing Australia with a great Laotian film (Rocket), they debuted. Unfortunately, Zambia that represented the co producing UK with a great film (I am not a witch) won't finally debut by it's own because there are no available non English language features or documentaries.
At last but not least, I believe that since Greenland participates, the other country with the same status as Danish dependency as well, Faroe Islands has strong possibilities to debut. The same goes for Maldives being the only South Asian country and with not so small number, without shockingly debuting.