And here's Group Three:
INDIA- No idea. I'm sorry but I'll have to do India last.....It's too much work.
INDONESIA- “Bumi Manusia” (This Earth of Mankind) Indonesian director Joko Anwar publicly
implored the Indonesian Academy to send films to the Oscars that have a proven
record at international film festivals, instead of the domestic melodramas
it’s been sending for a decade. They
seem to have listened; Tarantino-esque western “Marlina the Murderer” was sent
last year, and was probably the best Indonesian submission in a decade. This year, Indonesia has only one “festival” film - “Memories of my Body” (Venice
Horizons). It has fairly good reviews, and director Garin Nugroho is one of
Indonesia’s most respected directors. The problem is that it’s also extremely
controversial, and conservative Muslim groups have picketed and forced the film
out of most cinemas early (I can confirm it has fulfilled the seven-day
requirement). The film is about a male
dancer who plays female roles in a traditional art form known as Lengger, and it was nominated for
the Queen Lion in Venice. I’m not sure how the Indonesian Academy will feel
about this. “Marlina” was a bold choice. Could they go bolder? Possibly yes, but I think the
controversy will be too much for Nugroho and that Indonesia will select one of
two period dramas set to be released this summer- “Bumi
Manusia” (The Earth of Mankind) or “Perburuan” (The Fugitive). Both are based
on historical novels by author Pram Ananta Toer about Indonesia’s colonial period and emerging nationalism. Toer, who was a political prisoner under
both the Dutch colonialists and Indonesian dictator Suharto, is a beloved national author.
I give the edge to the higher-profile “Bumi Manusia”, about an elite Javanese
student who confronts nationalism and racism under Dutch rule. The film will be released in August and it's said to be long and expensive. The book was written in
prison and banned in Indonesia under 2005, so it has a great backstory as well.
“The Fugitive”, about the final days of Japanese occupation during WWII, would probably be more interesting to a Western audience. But we won’t really know which is
the frontrunner until both are released in August. Three other dark
horses: “27 Steps of May”, an arthouse film about a young woman trying to
recover from a trauma, “Asal Kau Bahagia”, about a man whose beloved girlfriend falls into
a coma, and “Kuambil Lagi Hatiku” (I Take My Heart Back), a romance partly in India, which is the first film from the rebooted national film
company.
IRAN- “Castle of Dreams” In 2012, Iran was the Foreign Film returning
champion but their Academy boycotted and refused to send their official submission (“A Cube of
Sugar”) because the U.S. didn't ban a YouTube video they didn’t like. Amid the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and threats of war, I’m wondering if Iran will
boycott again this year. I always enjoy seeing the Iranian films so
I’m hoping they just quietly send in a movie. The five main contenders are:
(1)- “6.5 Toman Per Meter”, a crime drama about the pursuit of a dangerous drug lord, (2)-
“Castle of Dreams” about an estranged father forced to take custody of his kids
after the death of his ex-wife, (3)- “Dressage”, a Berlinale thriller about a
group of teenage female thieves, (4)- “The Warden”, about a respected prison warden who realizes a death row inmate has escaped, and (5)- “When the
Moon Was Full”, about a bride who learns her new husband is a member of a terrorist organization. “Dressage” played at two Class-A festivals (Berlin and
Shanghai), while the other four dominated this year’s Fajr Film Festival in
Tehran. If Iran sends a film, I think this may come down to “Castle of Dreams”,
which just won Best Picture at Shanghai, and “6.5 Toman Per Meter”. Both films have “deserving” directors. Reza Mirkarimi (Dreams) has been chosen three
times (though the aforementioned “A Cube of Sugar” wasn't sent), while Saeed
Roustavi was considered a strong contender three years ago for “Life+1 Day” and they may choose to make it up to him. With cute kids and a family-oriented story, I'm predicting “Castle of Dreams”, with “Toman” (starring
Payman Maadi, the husband from “A Separation”) in second place. “When the Moon
Was Full”, which dominated the Fajr Film Festival with awards for Picture,
Director and three of the four acting categories, may be a bit controversial
but it’s the one I most want to see. I have it ranked third. “The Warden”- set
in pre-revolution times with unveiled female characters- and the arthouse
“Dressage” would be slightly more daring choices. Other dark horses: “Tehran:
City of Love” is probably the best-reviewed Iranian film of the year, but I don’t think it
has screened in Iran; “The Truck”, about Yazidi refugees, won Best Screenplay
at Fajr and is by a previously submitted director; “Bomb: A Love Story”,
reunites the two stars of the Oscar-winning “A Separation”. Unfortunately, despite a multitude of good films to choose from, I’m
thinking Iran may be absent this year.
IRAQ- “A Dream Before Dying” Like Belgium, Iraq is basically run as
two separate, independent countries. Most of their Oscar submissions are from
the small Kurdish-speaking region in the north and I don’t know of a single
Arabic-language film made in Iraq this year. I predict the Iraqis will send “A
Dream Before Dying”, a drama about a Kurdish man who works to clear land mines
planted by ISIS. Two other Iraqi Kurdish
entries appeared at the Duhok International Film Festival for Kurdish cinema,
namely “Sacrifice” and “Hero of the Century”. “Sacrifice”, about a couple who
married without the consent of their very traditional families, has been more visible so I
have that ranked second.
IRELAND- “Finky” Last year, I predicted that the Irish-language historical
thriller “Penance” would be one of the sleepers of the competition but for
some reason it was never released in Irish cinemas. Even though director
Tom Collins has represented Ireland
twice at the Oscars, the film went directly to TV screens after some limited
festival play. So that’s out. Ireland has an interesting new scheme whereby The
Irish Film Board and the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland will work jointly to
produce two Irish-language films each year. The first two recipients are
psychological thriller “Finky” and Irish potato famine drama “Arracht”. Although "Arracht" isn't ready yet, "Finky", a fever dream of a film about a thief who ends up in the circus, premiered this month at the Galway Film Festival. Ireland
could also choose to send Arabic-language documentary “Gaza”, about a Palestinian family living under the
Israeli siege, or multi-lingual “The Cave”, about the recent rescue of a dozen
Thai schoolboys from a flooded cave. Both were made by Irish directors and could qualify if they're released.
ISRAEL- “Redemption” As usual, Israel will send the Best Picture
winner of the Ophir Awards to represent them at the Oscars. The Israeli Film
Academy announced the 24 eligible films earlier this year and it’s looking to
be a very competitive year. After a thorough review, I predict the five Ophir nominees will be “Chained”
(Berlinale Panorama), “The Dive” (Locarno/Toronto; Best Israeli Film, JIFF
2018), “Redemption” (Karlovy Vary 2018), “Synonyms” (winner Berlinale Golden Bear) and “Tel Aviv on Fire” (Venice 2018; Best Picture Seattle), with Keren
Yadaya’s upcoming rock opera “Mami” a dark horse if it’s really good. Winning
the grand prize at a Class-A Festival like Berlin would normally make the film an
automatic choice for Oscar in most countries....so “Synonyms” is the obvious frontrunner.
However, I think Ophir voters will surprise us by voting for the more authentically
Israeli “Redemption”, over the French-language, Eurocentric “Synonyms”.
“Redemption” has gotten strong reviews for its original story of a newly religious rock musician who gets his old band back together to help raise money
for his daughter’s cancer treatment. This seems more likely to earn votes than
“Synonyms”, a "very arthouse" film about an Israeli who emigrates to France. “Tel Aviv on Fire”, a comedy about Palestinian writers
and the Israeli secret service scripting a popular Palestinian soap
opera, is the most visible Israeli film of the year but I think it's unlikely
Israel will pick an Arabic-language film (although they have twice). “The Dive”, about
three siblings meeting after the death of their father, has been widely praised
but seems too small to win….Ditto “Chained” (whose director Yaron Shani got an
Oscar nomination for “Ajami”), about a hard-edged policeman falsely accused of
molestation by a teenager. I predict the third
Berlinale entry- father/daughter drama “The Day After I’m Gone”- will fall by the wayside, but it could also finish in the Final Five.
ITALY- “Martin Eden” Italy has more Oscars than any other country, though they’ve only been nominated twice in the past twenty years. This year, everyone seems rather certain that Italy will select “The Traitor”...and it’s possible they will. 80-year old Marco Bellocchio is nearing the end of his career, the Italian Academy loves mafia movies, and “The Traitor” was the only Italian film in the main line-up at the Cannes Film Festival. That’s all true, but reviews have been unenthusiastic and Bellocchio has been snubbed (“Vincere”) for better work. It just doesn’t seem like people love the film. I currently have it ranked in third place behind two upcoming releases: glossy biopic “Amazing Leonardo” about the life of Leonardo da Vinci, and “Martin Eden”, a reworking of a classic American novel, now set in 1990s Italy. Cineuropa names it as one of the frontrunners for the Venice Film Festival this year and I think Italy will send it to the Oscars. Other options: Italy had two other films competing at the big festivals: “Piranhas” (Berlinale, Best Screenplay), and “Capri-Revolution” (Venice 2018). One of last year’s Donatello Best Picture nominees (“Euphoria”) is eligible and three previously submitted directors are also in the mix- Paolo Virzi’s breezy murder-mystery “Magical Nights”, Pupi Avati’s creepy horror-drama “Il Signor Diavolo” and Francesca Archibugi’s family drama “Vivere”. Italy usually has a rather long “shortlist” and you can also expect to see rom-com “Bangla” and trafficking drama “The Vice of Hope” on there, plus some documentaries. My predicted Top Five: (in order) “Martin Eden”, “Amazing Leonardo”, “The Traitor”, “Vivere” and “Signor Diavolo”. All except “The Traitor” are unreleased (Italy frequently chooses late entries), so a lot depends on how each of them fare with critics in the coming months.
JORDAN- “Tiny Souls” Despite a 2016 Oscar nomination for “Theeb”,
Jordan hasn’t made a feature film since 2016. They do have two female-helmed
movies in the can. Documentary “Tiny Souls”, which follows a Syrian refugee
family over the course of four years living in Jordan, is completed. Family drama
“Salma’s Home” appears to still be in post-production and likely won’t be ready
in time. The latter film, about a man’s two widows trying to live
together after being jointly left the family home, will probably be Jordan’s
third Oscar submission next year.
KAZAKHSTAN- “The
Secret of a Leader” Last year, Kazakhstan made the shortlist for the third time since
2007. Not bad. This year is a bit blurry but it's notable that out
of the twelve local films screened at Kazakhstan's Eurasia Film Festival, only one was selected to compete in the Main Competition, namely “The
Secret of A Leader”. It also won the Grand Prize at the 2019 Moscow International
Film Festival, marking it as the probable favorite. The film is about a 40-something loser whose encounter with an old friend leads him into an
unexpected spiral of criminal activity. Director Farkhat Sharipov made “The Tale of a Pink
Hare”, one of the best movies I’ve ever seen from the former Soviet countries. Three
other Kazakh films from the Festival look like possible contenders- “Aruakh”
(an old man helps raise an orphan on the steppe), “The River” (a rural drama
about five young brothers, which played at a number of international festivals,
including Toronto and Venice 2018) and “Shyraqshy: Guardian of the Light”
(about a Kazakh soldier who is given a movie projector after saving a civilian life in WWII; director Yermek Tursunov got Kazakhstan to the shortlist for
“Kelin”) Unlikely but possible: Akan Satayev’s crime drama “Businessmen” or
biopic “Baluan Sholak”. Probably not ready: Satayev’s upcoming expensive
historical drama “Tomyris”, which I expect won’t premiere before September 30.
Ultimately, I expect a showdown between “Secret of a Leader” and
“Shyraqshy”.
KENYA- “Subira” Kenya’s most likely candidate is “Subira”, a
Swahili-language drama that won Best Picture at last year’s national Kalasha
Awards (beating the charming “Supa Modo”, which was submitted last year).
Filmed over the course of four years, it follows a free-spirited Muslim Kenyan
girl from ages 14-18, as conservative society gradually forces her carefree life to change. It looks quite good and director Ravneet Sippy Chadha would
potentially be the first woman to represent Kenya. I had previously expected
romantic comedy “Disconnected” to contend, but it’s mostly in English and is
not eligible.
KOREA- “Parasite” I
don’t have to write much about South Korea this year. With their first-ever
Cannes win for the universally praised “Parasite” in an otherwise weak year, they have the easiest decision of all of the large countries. Last year, Korea
made it to the shortlist for the first time with the slow-burn arthouse entry “Burning”. They’re desperate for an Oscar
nomination and “Parasite” may be their best chance in years. Bong Joon-ho has
been selected before (for the underrated “Mother”) so we know the
Korean Academy likes him. Consider it a lock. Korea will often reveal a shortlist of films, so you’ll likely see historical dramas (“The King’s
Letters”, “The Battle: Roar to Victory”, “A Resistance”), festival films with
good reviews (“House of Hummingbird”, “Hotel By the River”) and some other
random films (“Swing Kids”, “Unstoppable”) on the list. The films with the best chance to
come in second place are probably Berlinale family drama “House of Hummingbird” or “The King’s Letters” (about the Korean alphabet, which will likely be
difficult to translate). But thriller “Parasite” is on track to get Korea its
second shortlist spot in a row.
KOSOVO-
“Cold November” Kosovo
has two potential submissions this year. I predict they’ll send “Cold
November”, a moral dilemma drama about life in Kosovo during Yugoslavia's final days when war was quickly spreading from region to region. It’s gotten
strong reviews since its San Sebastian premiere last year. “Aga’s House” was selected to open the prestigious
East of the West competition at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival. This
coming-of-drama about a boy living in a house full of women is the first feature from a respected local filmmaker and could
easily displace “November” if its really good. But I expect Kosovo will open “Aga” after September and have it compete next year.
KUWAIT-
“An Hour of Time” Kuwait has been absent from the Oscar competition
since 1978- longer than any other country. On the off chance they choose to
return, it would presumably be “An Hour of Time” (Saat Zaman) about a man
stranded on an island after escaping his brutal Iraqi captors during the first
Gulf War. The film stars a popular comedian in the dramatic leading role.
KYRGYZSTAN-
"Aurora" One
of the mysteries of last year is what happened to the Kyrgyz submission. It was
announced in late September that Kyrgyzstan had selected "Night
Accident" but the film was mysteriously absent from the final list.
Assuming they fill out the paperwork, this year I expect that the Kyrgyz will send
"Aurora" a quirky film about an unusual cast of Kyrgyz characters
spending the day at a Kyrgyz spa in the mountains (I've spent a weekend at one
of these Kyrgyz spas! They certainly are strange places!) "Aurora" premiered in Busan and critics say the film is charming
and exotic. I hope to see it on the list.
LAOS-
“Expiration Date” Laos
has only submitted a film once, when they sent the charmingly spooky horror
film “Dearest Sister” in 2017. Despite talk of a “Lao New Wave”, production has
mostly stalled. The only feature I know about is summer rom-com “Expiration Date”. They probably won’t send this. I think they’ll wait until
“Raising a Beast” is completed. This project about two rural siblings who dream
of being singing stars has gotten pre-production support from a number of
prominent festivals
LATVIA-
“Oleg” Latvia
has about a half dozen eligible features, though they could end up with more
due to a flurry of domestic films scheduled to be released the last few months of 2019.
The fact that “Oleg” netted a slot at Cannes Director’s Fortnight and that
director Juris Kursietis has been selected once make it the most
likely film to be selected. It’s a grim drama about a Russian-Latvian who tries
to find work in Belgium without a work permit. “The Mover”, about a blue-collar
worker and smuggler who reluctantly agrees to help Jews during WWII-occupied
Latvia, won Best Director and a few other awards at the 2018 Latvian Film
Awards and is Oleg's strongest competition. Creepy, claustrophobic thriller
“Eva” will come third. There are two other films by previously-submitted
directors but I don’t think documentary “The Spoon” (Karlovy Vary) will be a
threat, and I doubt thriller “What Silent Gerda Knows” will be released
before September 30.
LEBANON- “Good
Morning” After years of trying, Lebanon has now gotten two
Oscar nominations in a row. Will they be able to make it three ?
Probably not. It’s been a relatively slow year and no country has achieved a triple since Canada from 2010-2012. This year's Lebanese submission is likely to be
“Good Morning”, the story of two octogenarian best friends trying to grow old
gracefully. It got ten nominations at the national film awards- losing most to
the Oscar-nominated “Capernaum”- where it won Best Screenplay. Two
potential dark horses are “Are You Glad I’m Here?”, a drama/thriller about the
friendship between a traditional housewife and a visiting young American woman (will
it have too much English?) and “Yara”, a well-reviewed coming-of-age tale set
in rural Lebanon (will they consider it Lebanese, since the director is Iraqi?). Rom-com “Khabsa- What Did I Mess” has gotten good reviews but is
probably too light and commercial to be considered.
LITHUANIA-
“Summer Survivors” Lithuania has delayed its Silver Crane Film Awards
from the spring to the fall, making it more difficult to figure out what films
are resonating with Lithuanian critics. I’m predicting they choose “Summer
Survivors” a sensitive study about mental illness, featuring a psychologist
treating two young patients at a sanitarium. It played at Toronto and was one
of only two Lithuanian films to compete at this year’s Vilnius Film Festival,
where it won the Audience Award. Four of Lithuania’s eleven submissions have
been documentaries, and a new Oscar rule encourages countries to submit them
because it makes them automatically eligible for the Best Documentary Feature
award. For that reason, it's very possible Lithuania will choose “Acid Forest” (Locarno), an
environmental doc about the damage to a traditional forest caused by local birds. In
third place: box-office hit historical drama “Ashes in the Snow” about the Soviet-era deportations that nearly destroyed the Lithuanian nation. Also
possible: “Isaac”, about a nationalist haunted by guilt over a murder he
committed during WWII, “Nova Lithuania” (Karlovy Vary), about a secret plan to
evacuate Lithuania to escape the Nazi and Communist invasions and “Sasha Was Here” (Tallinn Black Nights), a
drama about a couple looking to adopt a baby girl, who are given a rebellious
12-year old boy instead. I'd say all six of these films are very much in the running so it's a very good year for Lithuania.
LUXEMBOURG- "Sawah" Tiny Luxembourg is
confusing this year. Luxembourg has an active film industry but most of
their films are minority co-productions, and many of their majority features are in English. The most promising film of 2019 ("Peitruss")
won't be released until October so it isn't eligible. The only 100%
eligible film this year is the very local hit comedy
"Superchamps Returns", based on a local comic about a paunchy,
middle-aged superhero tasked with preserving the safety and security of tiny
Luxembourg. It's been very warmly received at home but it's a commercial comedy
and Luxembourg is unlikely to send it. Two other films are more likely if they
meet the language requirement. Edgy, anti-capitalist animated documentary
"Zero Impunity" is in French, Russian and quite a lot of English. But I'm
going to predict comedy "Sawah", about an Egyptian DJ trapped in
Luxembourg (which he has never heard of) when he is unable to convince the
authorities that he is not a migrant or refugee. It's roughly half in Arabic,
French and Luxembourgish....and half in English. They'll have to get out their stopwatch.
MACEDONIA-
“Second Chance” Macedonia technically changed its name this year after twenty
years of Greek bullying and threats to veto their applications to join NATO and the
EU, but it is still known to most non-Greeks as Macedonia. The
Macedonian Academy is a strange one. Whereas most countries use the Foreign Film award to
promote their films, in the past six years Macedonia’s selection committee has twice declined to enter the competition even though some fairly well-known
directors had submitted their films for consideration. I’ve confirmed that the
next film by Macedonia’s only Oscar nominee- Milcho Manchevski’s “Willow”- is
not ready. So this is likely to be a battle between two feminist films- “God
Exists, Her Name is Petrunija” and “Second Chance”. Winning two awards at
Berlinale, “Petrunija” is clearly the favorite. Said to be director Teona
Mitevska’s best film yet, it’s about a woman who insists on participating in a
traditional ceremony reserved for men only. However, Mitevska’s last film also played in
Berlinale and, rather than sending it, Macedonia sent no film at all. That
leads me to believe they will select grim societal drama “Second Chance”,
featuring three stories centered around the difficulties of motherhood and
womanhood. It was the only Macedonian feature at the 2019 Skopje Film Festival.
Two dark horses: the Macedonian Academy has a sense of humor and they’ve chosen
jet-black comedies three times, meaning they could go with the absurdist (and
quite well-liked) “Year of the Monkey”. “Unforgettable Spring in Forgotten
Village”, made in the country’s Albanian-speaking community, sounds fascinating
(three prostitutes arrive to set up shop in a tiny town) but is unlikely to be
selected.
MALAWI-
“The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind” A few years ago, we had Oscar winner
Angelina Jolie in the Foreign Film race representing Cambodia. This year, we
likely will have Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years A Slave”) in the race representing
Malawi. The small Southern African country entered the Oscar race for the first
time last year with “A Road to Sunrise” and they’re likely to return with the
earnest coming-of-age drama “The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind”, about a young boy
who helps bring cheap wind power to his impoverished village after reading
about turbines in a library book. The film won a small prize at Sundance 2019 and
I’ve heard that the dialogue is mostly in Chichewa, Malawi's national language. Of course, the film may have
difficulty meeting nationality requirements. Though the film was made in Malawi
with a local cast and is based on a Malawian novel, the director is British and
the crew is international with no locals in leadership roles. It’s very
possible this may be one of the films controversially missing from the final
list.
MALAYSIA-
“Fly By Night” Malaysia has submitted films four times, though they’ve been
absent the past two years. Part of the reason for this is that most of the
country’s most acclaimed films are made in Chinese by the ethnic Chinese minority community.
Nationalist Malaysia doesn’t seem to be willing to let a Chinese film represent
them, so they send nothing at all. I’m wondering if that will change this year
with “Fly By Night”, a multi-lingual thriller dominated by Chinese stars and
Chinese dialogue. The difference is that the film has an ethnic Malay director
(Zahir Omar) whose style of direction the Hollywood
Reporter compared to Scorsese and Tarantino. It’s a crime thriller about a
bunch of taxi drivers involved in extortion and blackmail. Still, if the
Malaysians are too skittish to send a Chinese-language film they could
send “Motif”, about a woman police investigator dealing with a missing child case, as well as her own troubled marriage. Chinese-language family drama “Guang” has gotten
better reviews than either of these, and it was also one of the first
Chinese-language films to get a Best Picture nominee at Malaysia’s national
film awards (they used to be banned from competing). They’re a potential dark
horse but, as I said, unlikely.
MALTA-
“Knock Me Up, Knock Me Down” Tiny Malta has only entered the Oscar race
once (in 2014) but they do have several Maltese-language films that are eligible this year. Because of Malta’s small size, many domestic films have a
few local screenings but do not have a “seven-day release” that would be
necessary to qualify them for the Oscars. Experimental drama “Of Time and Sea”,
a bizarre and symbolic story about an island inhabited by an old man
and his two daughters, represented Malta at the Valletta International Film
Festival, but I believe it did not meet
the screening requirements when it debuted in Maltese cinemas in December 2018. “Knock Me
Up, Knock Me Down” did meet the
screening requirements, so that’s my pick. It’s a strange drama about four
high-school girls who make a bet about who can get pregnant first by a famous
actor. Though it sounds like a skewed “American Pie”, it’s actually a drama
that has gotten fairly good reviews. Also possible: “Limestone Cowboy” has been
seeking financing for a theatrical release since 2017 and it finally debuted in
Maltese cinemas this year. The trailer looks great, but it's about 50% in English. It’s a comedy-drama about an eccentric old man whose decision
to run for mayor embarrasses his respectable son. This would be my pick if it has enough Maltese dialogue to qualify.
MAURITANIA-
“Ganda, le dernier griot” Mauritania hasn’t made a feature film since
getting an Oscar nod in 2015 for “Timbuktu”. They only have one international
director (Abderrahmane Sissako) and he hasn’t made a movie since being
nominated. Interestingly enough, Italian director Michela
Occhipinti made her debut film “Flesh Out” in Mauritania with a Mauritanian cast...It played in Berlinale Panorama but I doubt it screened in
Mauritania and it didn’t have any significant Mauritanian crew, so I don’t
think it could represent the country. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict
“Ganda, le dernier griot”, a documentary about a famed Malian storyteller,
directed by young Mauritanian director Ousmane Diagana. It represented the
country at FESPACO 2019.
4 comments:
Thanks for another interesting post!
Indonesia - “Memories of my Body” is a good arthouse film, but watching it almost a year ago I can hardly remember what it was about besides being indeed controversial, so probably you're right and it doesn't stand a chance.
Iran - “Life+1 Day” was awesome and it was very unfortunate to be released in the same year like "Salesman" so I'm looking forward to Roustayi's new film (thanks to you I know it exists!).
Macedonia - Mitevska was already selected one time before (in 2008). And there's a huge difference between "When the Day Had No Name" and "Petrulija", the last one was one of the main competition, while Day has played only in the side one so I suppose it would be harder to neglect her newest film.
The comment about Israel has gotten a bit long, my apologies.
Israel - Actually, the voting for the nominees is closing today so I suppose in a week or two we will already have the final nominees, but this year the competition is quite interesting so I had decided to write it anyway.
Previously, when you mentioned two films I was sure that you've meant "Synonyms" and "Tel-Aviv on Fire" (being 2 most successful Israeli films at the festivals during this year), at least it was my personal idea before the academy screenings began (with another new film behind them).
To remind you of the Israeli Academy rules: a film doesn't have to be released to compete for the awards and should just fill the submission and pay a fee. Currently, only 11 films were released to cinemas (3-4 of them limited), while in previous years it was even less.
Also, unlike the previous years, all the real contenders are made by well-respected directors.
It seems that at least 10 films have a real shot to be nominated for the Best Film.
So those the films that were already released:
“Redemption” is a crowd-pleaser, but didn't turn into a hit. It's a touching and well-made film (some will say even an Oscar material). Personally, I've fingers crossed for it to get the nomination for the best film. If it was competing at another year or was yet to be released I would consider it to be one of the favorites, but right now it would not be an easy job.
"Synonyms" - Golden Bear should be enough to get it the nomination for the Ophirs. It may be even enough to get the award as the Academy tends to vote for the film that they think will do the best at Oscars and such a high-profile film is a huge bonus. Another thing that may play in its favor is Lapid's mother, who was an important Israeli editor and "Synonyms" is her last film as she passed away last year (before the film was finished). Though as you've mentioned, it's a totally arthouse film (a great one) so it may drive off some of the voters.
"Tel-Aviv on Fire" - Being an Arabic-language film maybe even an advantage for this award as most of the academy members are left-wing (pro-Palestinian). I found it as a great satire on the conflict and winning an award at Venice should have made it one of the strongest contenders not just for the nomination, but for the award itself, but it was released a few weeks ago and turned to be a huge flop (at least compared to the expectations for its released) and seems to lose the buzz... Though again, being a high-profile film may save it.
"Working Woman" - My personal favorite. About a woman, who gets a new job and begin to suffer from sexual harassment from her boss. It was released a few weeks ago and has strong reviews, but unfortunately, I'm not sure if it's big enough to get through. It already had a limited release in USA and critics from LA times even put it in the list of the best films that were released in the USA in 2019 (so far).
And now for the list of the film that the Israeli public has not seen.
Each of 24 films gets 2 screenings for Academy members (doesn't matter if they were released or not), while some producers rent halls for additional screenings. As you can guess the films that have more screenings has better chances. So those films had the most screenings (which also means buzz):
"The Art of Waiting" - Probably had more Academy screenings than any other film. It's a dramedy about a couple, who goes through fertility treatments (because of the husband). It's made by Erez Tadmor, who has won Directing Ophir Award for "Wounded Land" in 2015.
It's not his best, but having the strongest production company in Israel behind it making its nomination locked.
"Chained" - Just to make you understood the absurd of the situation. "Chained" is the 2nd film in Shani's "Love Trilogy" (the films are not connected). The 1st film in the trilogy, "Stripped" was competing for the last year's awards (and even got Shani the nomination in Directing category) is yet to be released in Israel, but "Chained" the 2nd film is already competing this year. Nevertheless, "Chained" is a very strong film and the Israeli Academy likes Shani (again, he was nominated last year, while the film itself was not nominated for the Best Film) so it easily may find itself among the 5.
"Golden Voices" - The cinderella. A dramedy about a couple, who were one of the most famous dubbing actors in the Soviet Union, immigrating to Israel in the early 90's on the eve the Gulf War, they try to start a new life. Unlike others, "Golden Voices" does not have a big company behind it, but since its 1st screening, it started gathering the buzz so when the producer understood the potential they did add screenings. It would be a surprise if "Golden Voices" would not get (a deserved) nomination unless the voters would go with the bigger films at the last moment.
"Peaches and Cream" - Actually it's in the same boat like "Golden Voices", it's even a smaller film, but its director is a more respected one. It's about a film director, who goes through death-panic attack on the premiere of his long-awaited film. Unlike "Golden Voices" its 1st screening was scheduled to be one of the last and seems they simply didn't have enough time to book enough screenings (they had only about 5 of them), but the critics are pushing it very-very hard, which finally may make its job.
"Incitement" - Probably the buzziest film before "anyone" has seen even "a single frame" from the it. It's about one of the most painful events in Israeli history, the assassination of Israel's Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin. The film shows the year leading to the assassination from the point of view of the assassin, Yigal Amir. Personally, I feel that it's the weakest film from those 10 (basically, too long and too lecturing) and the round of applause at the end of the screening was not so strong, but it also was the most attended screening (and as far as I understand the 6 or 7 screenings, at least, were also full) so the buzz may do it job.
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The 10th is "The Unorthodox", but it was released in Israel in July, 2018 so even if it gets the 5th spot it would not be able to represent the country.
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