What a great list of films we have this year!
This year, I’ve divided our record 93 nominees into five regional groups:
I- The Americas (16 films)
II- Asia (20 films)
III- The Middle East + Africa (16 films)
IV- Western Europe and Australia (19 films)
V- Eastern Europe (22 films)
3. PERU- “Retablo”
14. ECUADOR- “La mala noche” (The Longest Night)
Number of countries who have participated in the past: 21.
Already Seen: 8. LGBT drama “I Miss You” (A) from Bolivia had the entire audience in tears at the screening I attended and deserves some consideration. “The Chambermaid” (A-) is a solid character study, “The Projectionist” (B+) is an intriguing mystery that gets better as it slowly moves along and “Monos” (B+) is a tough watch but technically dazzling. Less memorable: dramas “The Longest Night” (B), “The Translator” (B-) and “Awakening of the Ants” (C-).
Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely Peru’s “Retablo”.
This year, I’ve divided our record 93 nominees into five regional groups:
I- The Americas (16 films)
II- Asia (20 films)
III- The Middle East + Africa (16 films)
IV- Western Europe and Australia (19 films)
V- Eastern Europe (22 films)
We’ll start with the
strong roster of films from the Americas.
FRONT-RUNNERS:
1. BRAZIL- "Invisible Life"
2. CANADA- "Antigone"
Everyone is talking
about BRAZIL's Cannes drama “Invisible Life”, the story of two sisters separated
by fate in 1950s Brazil. Nobody is talking about CANADA's “Antigone”, the Greek tragedy
transplanted to Quebec where an immigrant daughter seeks to help her imprisoned
brother. But both of them seem likely to occupy Oscar’s comfort zone and will appeal
to lots of different categories of voters. “Invisible Life” is a sprawling,
beautifully filmed family drama while “Antigone” is socially relevant and
topical.
Films about women are
never a lock in this category, but “Invisible Life” is mounting a strong
Oscar campaign, and Oscar loves Canada (although they’ve only sent one good
film- “Mommy”- in the past six years) and courtrooms (I hear they have a great
courtroom scene).
VERY STRONG DARK HORSES:
3. PERU- “Retablo”
4. COLOMBIA- “Monos”
5. BOLIVIA- “Tu me
manques” (I Miss You)
These three South American films are all on
the cusp of making the shortlist, although the field of 93 films is so packed
that it will be difficult for more than one of them to get through.
COLOMBIA's “Monos” has the most buzz, in large
part thanks to a US distributor and a prestigious Special Jury Prize from
Sundance. It’s a disturbingly beautiful and brutal film about a band of child
soldiers tasked by a terrorist group to hold an American engineer hostage,
first in the Colombian mountains and, later, in the jungle. “Monos” is not an
easy film to watch but the cinematography is Oscar-worthy and will certainly
score well with those from the technical branches.
I’m worried that the two (very different) gay-themed
films from Latin America are in danger of cancelling each other out. Quechua-language drama “Retablo” has quietly
been playing at festivals since 2017, building a strong reputation. It’s a
father-son drama that looks at the LGBT issue from the perspective of an
insular religious, indigenous community in PERU. I missed the DC screening, but
those who’ve seen it say it’s a definite dark horse.
Set mostly in New York City, “I Miss You”, from BOLIVIA, is
about a conservative Bolivian father who travels to the United States after the
sudden death of his son (played by three different similar-looking actors for
reasons that are explained in the film). He meets his son’s ex-boyfriend and
learns more about his son’s secret life. The screening I attended in
Washington, DC had the audience in tears and the film boasts one of the most
beautiful final sequences of any film of the year. Some of the silliness with
the American supporting cast may prevent the film from advancing, but if anyone
bothers to learn about the director’s backstory (no spoilers), that will help
the film as well. Other than “Parasite”, it’s my favorite film on the list so
far.
Both “Retablo” and “I Miss You” currently have
100% on Rotten Tomatoes. But for now, I think “Retablo” is most likely to sneak
into the shortlist.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
6. MEXICO- “La camarista” (The Chambermaid)
7. ARGENTINA- “La odisea de los giles” (Heroic Losers)
8. CHILE- “Araña” (Spider)
9. VENEZUELA- “Yo, imposible” (Being Impossible)
9. VENEZUELA- “Yo, imposible” (Being Impossible)
These four films will
represent their countries well but will have an uphill battle to an actual
Oscar nomination.
ARGENTINA's “Heroic
Losers” is a comedic Don Quixote about a group of village men who decide to
take revenge after losing their money in a scam. It’s said to be a
crowd-pleaser and it has the highest IMDB rating of this batch of films….but it’s
probably going to be considered too lightweight to advance. Next-door, political
thriller “Araña” managed to fend-off a
challenge from Pablo Larrain’s “Ema” to represent CHILE. Reviews have been good
but probably not good enough to advance.
MEXICO is the
returning champion in this category for the first time and they’ve selected
another film about a hard-working Mexican maid- “La camarista”. I originally thought this would invite unfair
comparisons to “Roma”, but “La camarista” (The Chambermaid) is a very different
film and one that I actually liked a lot better than “Roma”. It’s the sad,
minimalist story of Eve, a Mexican maid and single mother working hard to secure a promotion at the luxury
hotel where she works. There’s not much more to the story than that, and yet there are some beautiful, heartbreaking and unforgettable moments here. Still, it's probably too
“small” to net an Oscar nod. The same goes for VENEZUELA's intersex indie drama “Being Impossible”, about a young seamstress who makes a disturbing discovery after
losing her virginity. This is a dark and painful film to watch, as the director skillfully explores the horror of how one's mind and body can move in two opposite directions. It has a fearless performance by lead actress Lucía Bedoya and truly deserves greater exposure even if it is not likely to be Oscar's cup of tea.
LOST IN THE SHUFFLE:
10. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “El proyeccionista” (The Projectionist)
11. CUBA- “Un Traductor” (A Translator)
12. HONDURAS- “Café con Sabor a mi Tierra” (Blood, Passion and Coffee)
13. URUGUAY- “Así habló el cambista” (The Moneychanger”)
10. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “El proyeccionista” (The Projectionist)
11. CUBA- “Un Traductor” (A Translator)
12. HONDURAS- “Café con Sabor a mi Tierra” (Blood, Passion and Coffee)
13. URUGUAY- “Así habló el cambista” (The Moneychanger”)
These four films from
Latin America’s smaller countries are unlikely to make an impact and, with 93
competitors, are guaranteed to get lost in the shuffle.
Jose Maria Cabral is
one of the best Latin American directors working today and, like all his films, “The
Projectionist” is engaging, original, and well worth a watch. It also boasts one of the best finale sequences of the year, as the protagonist finally solves the mystery by running from room to room (And I shall say no more....) But this mystery from the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC about a man who runs a mobile cinema out of his truck is
rather slow-burn until its frenetic and brilliant finale and is likely to get lost in the shuffle.
HONDURAS is back at
the Oscars for a second time with “Blood, Passion and Coffee”, a drama set
amidst the country’s coffee plantations. But the film has no publicity and no
festival appearances and is likely to be considered no more than an obscure
curiosity.
Based on a true
story, “A Translator” is a drama set in 1980s CUBA when Russian-speaking
professors were pulled from their jobs to help translate for Soviet patients
evacuated to Cuba from Chernobyl. Brazilian actor Rodrigo Santoro plays a
professor assigned to the children’s ward. It’s a well-made film but a little
bit maudlin and sappy and the scenes depicting the professor’s home life (based
on the director’s own parents) are more engaging than those at the clinic.
URUGUAY unexpectedly
chose last-minute release “The Moneychanger”, a quirky comedy-drama about a man
involved in a number of shady, financial schemes. Director Veiroj’s films are
an acquired taste (I liked “The Apostate” but hated “A Useful Life”). Reviews
are some of the weakest of the group and nobody really seems to love the film.
OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:
14. ECUADOR- “La mala noche” (The Longest Night)
15. PANAMA- “Todos Cambiamos” (Everybody Changes)
16. COSTA RICA- “El despertar de las hormigas” (The Awakening of the Ants”)
Once again, I always
congratulate smaller countries for using this category to promote their
national cinema. While Costa Rica, Ecuador and Panama won’t be Oscar-nominated,
sending their films raises their international profile and gets their movies
seen.
All three of these
films are veer dangerously into telenovela territory. I’ve managed to see “La mala
noche” (The Longest Night), representing ECUADOR, and “The Awakening of the Ants” from COSTA RICA. “Night”, the story
about an aging prostitute trying to pay back a debt, is well-acted but breaks
no new ground and not especially memorable. “Ants” is about a devoted wife and
mother resisting familial pressure to have another baby. However, the film
(which has lots of icky and unexplained close-ups of ants) fails to build any
real sense of crisis or tension and just plods along. PANAMA's “Everybody
Changes” is about a family man who comes out as transgender. The trailer does
not impress and looks fairly melodramatic.
Now the statistics:
Number of countries who have participated in the past: 21.
Number of countries participating
this year: 16.
Number of debuts: Zero.
Number of countries opting out: 5.
Paraguay
formed a 15-person
Oscar selection committee which considered three films (documentary Cadete Amarilla, horror film Morgue and comedy Orsai). 10 voted to send no film at all (“Cadete Amarilla” won with
three votes) leaving Paraguay as the only South American country not present.
Guatemala
had its best film year
in history, with three films at major festivals- “Our Mothers” (Cannes),
“Tremors” (Berlin) and “La llorona” (Venice). “Our Mothers” is inexplicably
representing Belgium and “La llorona” hasn’t been released in theatres yet….but
it’s unfortunate Guatemala didn’t send acclaimed LGBT-drama “Tremors”, which
would have been a strong choice. Perhaps
Guatemala wasn’t brave enough to send a film so critical of rapacious, local
churches. Puerto Rico is no longer
invited while Haiti and Nicaragua don’t seem to have had any
films eligible.
Number I predicted correctly- 9!
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Honduras, Peru and Venezuela.
Probably my best ever….and I definitely would have gotten Canada right too
if I’d made my predictions a bit later. Only Uruguay took me completely by
surprise.
Already Seen: 8. LGBT drama “I Miss You” (A) from Bolivia had the entire audience in tears at the screening I attended and deserves some consideration. “The Chambermaid” (A-) is a solid character study, “The Projectionist” (B+) is an intriguing mystery that gets better as it slowly moves along and “Monos” (B+) is a tough watch but technically dazzling. Less memorable: dramas “The Longest Night” (B), “The Translator” (B-) and “Awakening of the Ants” (C-).
Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely Peru’s “Retablo”.
Number of Female Directors: 5 (31%) - Lila Avilés (Mexico), Gabriela Calvache
(Ecuador), Sophie Deraspe (Canada), Patricia Ortega (Venezuela) and Antonella
Sudasassi (Costa Rica).
Oldest and Youngest Directors: Argentina’s Sebastián Borensztein is
only 56, but he is the senior director in this mostly young group. Born in
1988, Rodrigo Barriuso (Cuba) and Jose Maria Cabral (Dominican Republic) are
both just 31.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented:
13 of these movies are (unsurprisingly) in
Spanish with Brazil (Portuguese), Canada (French) and Peru (Quechua) the only
exceptions. The films from Bolivia and Cuba are bilingual, with quite a lot of dialogue in
English and Russian respectively.
Number of countries with a realistic
chance at making the shortlist: There are quite a lot of dark horses in this group. Maybe as
many as six?
Most Likely to Advance for the First
Time: Bolivia
Buzziest film: Definitely Brazil’s “The
Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao”, with “Monos” a close second.
Oscar History: Jose Maria Cabral is only 31, but this
is his third time representing the Dominican Republic since his debut in 2012
with “Jaque Mate”. All three are well worth a watch! Andres Wood (Chile) was
also in the race twice before, with “Machuca” in 2004 and “Violeta” in 2011.
Rodrigo Bellott (Bolivia, “Sexual
Dependency”) and Federico Veiroj (Uruguay, “A Useful Life”) have also been here
once before.
Controversies and Changes: Other than the absence of
Guatemala? Nothing really.
Most Notable Omissions: Festival releases “Ema” (Venice;
Chile) and “Bacurau” (Cannes; Brazil) and popular local favorites “Las ninas
bien” (Mexico) and “The Weasel’s Tale” (Argentina) were all considered
potential Oscar nominees before being knocked out early by internal
competition. The hotly anticipated “Ema” was considered a particular favorite,
but reviews from Venice didn’t live up to the hype. As mentioned before, "Temblores" should be here to represent Guatemala.
Also absent: “Rojo” (Argentina), “Miriam
Lies” (Dominican Republic), “The Sharks” (Uruguay) and “Camarade Amarilla”
(Paraguay).
Familiar Faces: The most visible are Brazilian actors
Rodrigo Santoro (“A Translator”) and 90-year grande dame Fernanda Montenegro
(“Invisible Life”), but we also have father-son duo Ricardo and Chino Darin (“Heroic Losers”), longtime Almodovar
muse Rossy de Palma (“I Miss You”) and Daniel Hendler (“The
Moneychanger”).
Last year's race: I saw 10 of last year’s 16 films. While “Roma” was the eventual winner, I
felt “Birds of Passage” was the best-made film from the Americas group.
1 comment:
First of all thanks again for the huge amount of work you're doing every year before and after the submissions are made, it's always interesting to read your point of view on Oscar chances.
A little remark, personally I preferred to read in the opposite order as you've used to post (from those with lesser chances to frontrunners), it's much more intriguingly.
Brazil - Even being slightly dragged out and having a predictable over-melodramatic ending "Invisible Life..." is a strong and well-deserved contender (cinematography, acting, most of the storyline), which I would not mind seeing shortlisted. And I'm glad it was chosen over bizarre and confusing "Bacarau" with its banal messages.
Peru - I've watched it almost a year ago and as far as I remember it was quite a mediocre film that doesn't stand out from other "close anti-gay society films" except its location. Also, I can recall a year that had such a lot of gay-themed films, which would not help "Retablo" having much stronger and buzzier contenders (Sweden, Sweden, Sweden).
Colombia - The best film from this region from those I've seen. I definitely hope that Colombia will make it to the shortlist for the 2nd year.
Guatemala - I was sorry to see that Guatemala has opted out because "Tremors" was one of the best and moving films I've seen this year. The producers who attended the screening have told that the LGBT situation in Guatemala is pretty bad and probably the decision not to send it reflects it.
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