BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- THE AMERICAS PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And here are my predictions for the 22 countries of the Americas.....Last year, I predicted two-thirds correctly (11/17). 

Last year, these countries got two spots on the shortlist for (the annoying) "Universal Language" and the lovely winner, "I'm Still Here"

  ARGENTINA- “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (La virgen de la tosquera) Argentina always picks a film that premiered at a major festival…In the past ten years, they picked seven brand-new films that premiered right around the deadline (5 from Venice and 2 from Toronto) and just three early releases (two from Berlin and one from Cannes). This is a rough year for Argentina. Their only Cannes/Berlin entry was “The Message” and that didn’t get very good reviews. Popular director Pablo Trapero is working in English (“&Sons”), while Lucrecia Martel is at Venice with a documentary (they’ve never picked one before). I’m pretty sure they’ll choose between “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (Sundance) about an adolescent girl who resorts to black magic, and the upcoming “Homo Argentum”, a series of comedy vignettes about the absurdities of Argentine life. If “Homo” can get selected for a big festival like Toronto or San Sebastian, I think it will be selected. But if not, the Sundance label will get “Quarry Lake” selected. Other options (in order): gambling drama “Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed” (Cannes 2024), LGBT drama “Astronaut Lovers” and grim family drama “La Quinta” (San Sebastian 2024).

  BOLIVIA- “The Dog Thief” (El ladrón de perros) It’s been a slow year for Bolivian cinema but they have one great choice- “The Dog Thief” – which has been playing at festivals around the world and which just won “Best First Feature” at the Pan-American “Platino Awards” and got Bolivia’s first-ever nomination in the Best Ibero-American Feature category at the Mexican Ariel Awards. It’s a great little film although I still don’t really get the ending. The only problem is that its writer-director is Chilean….and the crew is fairly international….but it has been competing as a Bolivian film at festivals. Some others are talking about UK-Spain-Bolivian co-production “Cielo” which has similar nationality problems but less buzz….But I think “The Dog Thief” is in.

  BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” For the first time ever, Brazil is in the Oscar race as returning champion. Last year, they learned that if you go with your biggest and best film, you can win an Oscar. Brazil has a lot of very good films this year. But with the Academy’s prioritization of “bigger”, it’s obvious they’ll go with Kleber Mendonca Filho’s crime drama “The Secret Agent”, which won Best Actor and Director at Cannes. This period drama, set in the 70s just like “I’m Still Here”, is about a mysterious man who returns to his hometown of Recife and it has the buzz and awards that should automatically get the film to the shortlist….and also strong reviews that will very possibly get it to the nomination stage. Two potential problems? The film is scheduled to premiere in Brazil in November….but I think they’ll do a qualifying release. Also Kleber was picked just two years ago…but winning the Oscar last year will teach them that they just need to pick their film with the best chance.  Other films likely to be on Brazil’s shortlist: “Manas” (Venice Days Winner, 2024), “Vitoria”, a star vehicle crime drama for 95-year old grande dame Fernanda Montenegro, and three of Brazil’s five Best Picture nominees from their national Film Awards- “Baby” (Cannes Critics Week 2024), “Kasa Branca” and “Malu” (Sundance 2024). Oscar nominee Montenegro is a national treasure, so “Vitoria” is probably the only other film that could realistically be considered….though “Manas”, about women growing up in a remote Amazon community, probably has the best reviews, and LGBT drama “Baby” looks most interesting.

  CANADA- “The Things You Kill” I’m hearing rumors that Canada is leaning towards “The Things You Kill”, a Turkish-language thriller that won Best Director in the International Competition at Sundance. The Canadian Academy is (oddly) inclined against the French-language Quebecois films that traditionally dominated here for 50 years. In the past five years, they’ve never picked a majority French-language film…..though they did have to replace the Tamil/English-language “Funny Boy” with a French one when it was disqualified. “The Things That Kill” is a revenge movie about a man plotting a murder after the suspicious death of his elderly mother. It was made in Turkey by an Iranian director based in Canada. Three previously submitted directors are also strong contenders this year– comedy-drama “Lovely Day”, which is due to premiere in Toronto (Philippe Falardeau, “Monsieur Lazhar”), France-set “Shepherds”, which won Best Canadian Film at Toronto 2024 (Sophie Deraspe, “Antigone”) and Inuit fairy tale “Wrong Husband/Uiksaringitara” which premiered in Berlinale (Zacharius Kunuk, “Atanarjuat”). And there are two other very well-reviewed French-language films that look exactly like the sorts of films that Canada usually liked to send- “My Mother, God and Sylvie Varta”, a comedy-drama about a determined Mom raising a handicapped child in 1960s Canada, and “Two Women” (Sundance), a dramedy about the misadventures of two modern but disillusioned middle-aged women. I’m predicting “Things That Kill” based on buzz, but it’s by no means a done deal. A new film could emerge in Toronto in September….or they could choose one of the very good French-language alternates. The most likely from this list is “Two Women”….or maybe “Lovely Day”. Canada hasn’t been nominated since 2012 though they’ve gotten shortlisted twice since then…for two of their weakest submissions.

  CHILE- “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” (La misteriosa mirada del flamenco) AIDS parable “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” won the Cannes Un Certain Regard award and it’s definitely the most likely Chilean submission unless something comes along at the last minute. There were high hopes for Sebastian Lelio’s “La ola” (Cannes), his first Spanish-language film since winning the Oscar for “A Fantastic Woman”….but this drama about a feminist student on a university campus has gotten middling reviews that are nowhere near as good as “Flamingo”. Other options: western “Bitter Gold”, Pinochet-era drama “Cuerpo Celeste”, and home invasion thriller “The Righteous”. But “Flamingo” should win this relatively easily.

  COLOMBIA- “A Poet” (Un poeta) The obvious choice for Colombia is “A Poet”, which won the Un Certain Regard Jury Prize at Cannes 2025. This comedy-drama about a disillusioned poet tutoring a teenager arguably has the best reviews of any Colombian film this year. Director Simon Mesa Soto was previously a favorite to represent Colombia for “Amparo” (they rightfully picked the excellent “Kings of the World” instead), and “Poet” will get a qualifying release in late August. Four others to watch in a very strong year for Colombian cinema: western “Adios Al Amigo” (Tokyo), family murder drama “The Other Side” (HBO Max), queer Hell comedy “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance), and “Salt Water”, a very weird but well-reviewed LGBT movie about a gay man who confronts the priest who gave him his first sexual experience. “The Other Side” will probably be the runner-up and may go to the Goyas.

  COSTA RICA- “The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener” (El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero ) Costa Rica will probably choose between documentary ” El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero” which won Best Costa Rican film at their national film festival, and “La piel del agua”, which premiered at a Locarno sidebar in 2024. The documentary – about two adult victims who come forward to present evidence in a landmark case against the priest who abused them – has much better reviews. Although Costa Rica has never picked a documentary before, this is likely to be their first.

  CUBA- “Cherri” Cuba has only sent one film in the past four years….and it was disqualified for unknown reasons (“El mundo de Nelsito” was assigned to a group of Academy voters for viewing but it was never downloaded into the online Screening Room and was later removed from committee assignments). They rejoined the Spanish Goya competition last year after an absence of several years. Could the Oscars be next? Cuba’s national film body (the ICAIC) published a press release this year that they were experiencing a “period of renewal” with a large number of new films in production, including one by Oscar nominee Jorge Perugorria (“Strawberry and Chocolate”). The only option I know that has actually been screened this year is comedy “Cherri”, which repped Cuba at the Miami Film Festival. It’s a drama about a lonely, overweight, gay dance instructor and I’ve heard very good things about it.

  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Bionico’s Bachata” (La Bachata de Bionico) The Dominicans have quite a competitive race this year. On paper, “Pepe”, a weird, dreamy “Uncle Boonmee”-style film about a ghostly hippopotamus, should be the frontrunner since it won Best Director at Berlinale 2024. But reviews have not been good and I’m not sure how it won. The Dominicans will likely also consider other three festival films - “Bionico’s Bachata” (SXSW), “Olivia and the Clouds” (Locarno, Filmmakers of the Present), and “Sugar Island” (Venice Days), plus two local releases, musical biopic “La Grande”, and “Tiger” by José María Cabral, one of my favorite Latin American directors and who has represented the DR three times. The Dominican Republic is one of those rare countries that usually seems to send their actual best film….and “Bachata”, a dark comedy about a crack addict trying to get clean, definitely has the best reviews and won an Audience Award at SXSW. This shows that it appeals to U.S. audiences (unlike the arty “Pepe” which won in Europe). I have “Pepe” in second place, followed by “Tiger”, which focuses on the Dominican Republic’s unhealthy toxic masculinity culture followed by “Olivia & the Clouds”, a quirky animated film telling one story from several perspectives a la “Rashomon”. I’m hoping for Cabral (whose films are always amazing) but would also be happy to see "Bionico" succeed.

  ECUADOR- “Fishgirl” (Alucina) Ecuador has two very cool-looking fantasy films competing this year- “Alucina (Fishgirl)” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Chuzalongo”, which was picked to represent Ecuador at the 2025 Goyas. “Chuzalongo” is a horror-drama rooted in local indigenous mythology about a child with the power to heal the crops…but who also requires human blood to work his magic.  “Alucina” is a comedy about a woman with amnesia…whose best friend is an imaginary giant fish. “Chuzalongo” didn’t get a Goya nomination last year (although Ecuador has only ever gotten one once....and that was 25 years ago) while “Alucina” played at a major festival so that’s my prediction.  I’ve heard it’s quite an odd but moving film. Dark horse: Ana Cristina Barragan has a new film premiering in Venice called "The Ivy" (Hiedra) about a mother who reconnects with the son she gave up for adoption when she got pregnant at age 13. It has no general release date and I think it will be eligible next year....but Barragan will probably be chosen if it does. Other options include documentary “Carmela and the Walkers” and political mockumentary “Victor Presidente”. 

  GUATEMALA- “Comparsa” If Guatemala sends a film, it will probably be documentary "Comparsa", produced by Jayro Bustamente who has directed three of Guatemala's four submitted films since 2015.  "Comparsa" tells the same story as Bustamente's "Rita", except in documentary form. It's about the deaths of dozens of Guatemalan teenagers in a fire at a welfare home for girls. It's in Spanish but it was made by U.S. citizen directors, which may affect its eligibility. But Bustamente's involvement may make it "Guatemalan enough". Contrary to popular belief, films by U.S. directors have been allowed to compete in the past, e.g. "How to Win at Checkers" from Thailand. As far as I know, the only fiction film eligible this year is romantic comedy “Un caquero sin pisto” which was released in late July and looks a bit silly. Guatemala did launch an official call for submissions but I predict they will take this year off.

  HAITI- “Kidnapping Inc.” There were unofficial reports that Haiti submitted comedy-thriller “Kidnapping Inc.” to the Oscars last year but it didn’t appear on the official list. It appears likely that the Oscar selection committee that chose the film wasn’t officially recognized by AMPAS. In the past few years, AMPAS has allowed several films in this situation (including Bhutanese Oscar nominee “Lunana” and last year’s Tajik submission “Melody”) to compete the following year. “Kidnapping Inc.” was clearly made on a tight budget by a team that loves the movies....It was a breath of fresh air and one of the most entertaining submissions last year (it’s available on Amazon) and I hope it gets a chance to compete (though of course it won’t be nominated). This year, Haiti also has the long-delayed political thriller “July 7” and Canadian-Haitian documentary “At All Kosts”, about artists protesting political dysfunction and gang violence.

 HONDURAS- “Navidad Catracha 2: El origen” Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020. This year, I know of only two local films and they are highly unlikely to send either one. The director of one of their previous submissions has a new Christmas movie (“Navidad Catracha 2: El origen”) that premiered in December and that's slightly more likely than commercial comedy “El hombre se ha vuelto loco”.

  MEXICO- “Olmo”  As usual, Mexico has a fairly interesting and competitive race. They somehow got shortlisted (but not nominated) four years in a row from 2020-2023 (I thought three of these films were terrible) but “Sujo” broke their winning streak. But still, their record shows that the Mexicans are very good at figuring out what their Northern neighbors will like. And I think that will be “Olmo” (Berlin), a coming-of-age dramedy about a Mexican immigrant family in New Mexico, which is executive produced by Brad Pitt. This kind of gentle drama usually works well for Mexico and the idea that Pitt would campaign for the film will surely push it ahead of the pack. Mexico also tends to choose late releases….so I there’s a strong potential chance for “En el camino” (produced by another Hollywood movie star….Mexican actor Diego Luna), an upcoming movie about a gay drifter and hitchhiker. It’s set to premiere at Venice Horizons. In 3rd place- Ariel Best Picture nominee (the only one that is eligible) “No nos moveran” (We Shall Not Be Moved), about an attorney trying to get justice for the murder of her brother, nearly 60 years earlier. Likely to be on Mexico's shortlist (but unlikely to be picked): family drama “The Devil Smokes” (Berlin) and hit mainstream comedy “Corina” (Tallinn Black Nights). But I think they'll pick one of the films that has a Hollywood connection. 

  NICARAGUA- Nothing Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010. Leonardo DiCaprio has been promoting Nicaraguan environmental documentary “Patrol” (Patrullaje) but I think it was eligible last year.

  PANAMA- “Beloved Tropic” (Querido trópico)  What a wonderfully competitive race Panama has the year! There are at least a half dozen films that could easily represent the country- three dramas and three documentaries (Panama has selected four documentaries since joining the Oscar race in 2014). Of the three fiction features- “Beloved Tropic”, “Espina” and “Papeles”- I think the frontrunner is “Beloved Tropic” (San Sebastian), a Colombian co-production starring luminous Chilean actress Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) as a woman with dementia, and centering on her relationship with her immigrant caretaker. It won Best Central American Film in Costa Rica and looks absolutely wonderful. Of the three documentary features – “The Panama Canal Treaties: Son of Tiger and Mule”, “The Sorcerer” and “Wild Gleaming Space” – I give the edge to “The Sorcerer” an artistic documentary-animation hybrid that won the Audience Award at Panama’s national film festival.  Panama likes documentaries…but I think “Beloved Tropic” will get this and that “Sorcerer” will be runner-up. It's important to note that “Wild Gleaming Space”, a documentary about mortality, is produced by Abner Benaim who directed Panama’s only shortlisted film….and that journalism thriller “Papeles” is directed by Arturo Montenegro who has already been picked twice. Political considerations may also come into play. “The Panama Canal Treaties” tells the story of 1970s negotiations with the U.S. to decide the future possession of the Panama Canal, which the new U.S. President has inexplicably reclaimed in a fiery series of speeches. I think that “Wild Gleaming Space” will come in third and comic drama “Espina” (the film I most want to see) will come fourth. But "Beloved Tropic" looks like one of this year's gems. 

  PARAGUAY- “Under the Flags, the Sun” (Bajo las banderas, el sol) Paraguay rarely has films at international festivals but documentary “Under the Flags, the Sun”, premiered in Berlinale’s Panorama section this year. It tells the story of the 35 years of Paraguayan dictatorship (1954-1989) under Alfredo Stroessner through archive footage. Paraguay has picked documentaries before and this has good reviews so it’s safe to say it’s in.

  PERU- “Through Rocks and Clouds” (Raiz) Seven of Peru’s past eight submissions premiered at their Film Festival of Lima event, which is held every August. But because Peruvian films often take so much time to reach domestic cinemas, release dates are confusing. For example, two of those seven submissions (“Retablo” and “Rosa Chumbe”) were selected for the Oscars two years after they premiered! From last year’s festival, the two frontrunners would appear to be “Motherland” (Kinra), which won a few awards, and “Through Rocks & Clouds”, which won an award at Berlinale 2024 in the 14+ category. Both films are indigenous stories in Quechua and Spanish and appeared in the main competition in Lima. A third film, “Karuara”, which won Best Peruvian Film at Lima in 2024, is an animated film in the Cocama language.  From this year's festival, “Punku”, an environmental mystery that also played in Berlin and "1982", a village drama about local boys living amidst political turmoil, look the most likely. “Ramon y Ramon”, an LGBT drama from San Sebastian,  didn’t play in Lima but could be selected if they get a local release. Lastly, “Los indomables” could probably have been considered....but director Tito Catacora probably won’t be selected two years in a row.  “Through Rocks and Clouds”, about a young indigenous shepherd with cute kids and animals looks the most likely.

 PUERTO RICO- “This Island” (Esta isla) As I say every year, Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscars in 2010. One day, I believe AMPAS will realize their mistake and they’ll be allowed back when this ridiculous rule (that only affects Puerto Rico) is reversed. If it’s this year, Puerto Rico will surely send “This Island” which just won three awards at the Tribeca Film Festival. It’s a thriller about an impoverished young man and his wealthy girlfriend fleeing to the countryside following a violent family tragedy. Suerte, Puerto Rico!

 SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent one film to the Oscars in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This year they have a really interesting documentary option called “Monikondee” (literally ‘money country’) about a boatman who delivers cargo to a remote “wild west” region inhabited by indigenous people, former slaves, gold miners and multinational corporations, in a sort of "no man's land" between Suriname and French Guiana. It has Surinamese and Dutch co-directors and looks eligible.

  URUGUAY- “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame Fuerte) I think Uruguay will select “Don’t You Let Me Go”, a drama about grief and female friendship. It played at Tribeca ‘24, winning the Nora Ephron Award last year. I expected it would represent Uruguay last year but it didn’t get a domestic release until October 2024. Director Leticia Jorge has been picked once before. The two other strong possibilities are “A Bright Future” (Tribeca 25), a quirky sci-fi drama about a young woman in a futuristic dystopian world and “Perros” (Malaga) about a war between two feuding families. Uruguay often chooses genre films (especially comedies but also horror films) so I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked zombie comedy “Summer Hit/El tema del verano” (directed by 2004 Cannes UCR winner Pablo Stoll and co-starring Daniel Hendler) or action-thriller “Las 7 Balas”.

  VENEZUELA- “Visceral” Despite decades of political and economic crises, Venezuela has an accomplished film industry. They’ve sent a film to the Oscars every year since 1996 (they were disqualified once) and they have hosted a Festival of Venezuelan Cinema every year since 2005….until now. A few weeks ago, the Festival del Cine Venezolano was canceled for the first time which sadly means that Venezuelan national cinema has lost its largest platform. And although they still produce a lot of films, it looks most of their main contenders haven’t had the 7-day commercial release required to qualify. “Visceral” is a claustrophobic, psychological thriller about a married couple during COVID quarantine, that won a lot of awards at last year’s Festival de Cine Venezolano. I can confirm it got a cinematic release so that’s my pick. If “Zafari” (San Sebastian), a drama by Mariana Rondon (“Bad Hair”, “Postcards from Leningrad”) can get released somewhere then that’s equally likely. “Zafari” is about an impoverished family in Venezuela who live across the street from a zoo celebrating the arrival of a well-fed and pampered hippopotamus. Other options: docudrama “Lost Chapters” (Locarno) and migration drama “Hambre”. Dark horse: "La hija de la espanola", a new Venezuelan film premiering in Venice (also directed by Rondon), and starring Edgar Ramirez. 

Oscar International Film Predictions for Latin America, North America and the Caribbean

And here are my predictions for the countries of The Americas:

1.      Argentina- “El jockey” (Kill the Jockey) Argentina doesn’t always choose the front runner but they rarely choose a surprise…so it would seem that their submission is likely to be one of three big new releases- “The Blue Star” (San Sebastian 2023), “El Jockey” (set to premiere in Venice) and “Simon of the Mountain” (Cannes). The Spanish director of “Blue Star” has spoken publicly of his hope that the film will go to the Oscars, but it seems more likely to aim for Spain. “Simon” got good reviews at Cannes for its story of a youth with mental/cognitive disabilities…but it would have to arrange a qualifying release since it’s scheduled to premiere in Argentinian cinemas in October. That means the upcoming “El Jockey”, whose director was selected in 2018 for “El angel”, is automatically the favorite. Starring Nahuel Perez Biscayart, it’s about a male and female jockey fleeing a mob boss. Less likely: “Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” (SXSW 2023), “The Freshly Cut Grass” (Tribeca), “A Ravaging Wind”, documentary “The Trial” (Berlinale 2023), and “Vera and the Pleasure of Others” (San Sebastian). Of these, the acclaimed 3-hour “The Trial” (El juicio) seems most likely even though I’ve never heard of Argentina considering a doc before. Likely out: A lot of people were talking about Lucia Puenzo’s “Electrophilia” last year but reviews were not great….

2.      Bolivia- “Mano propia” I lived in Bolivia 2022-2024 and can honestly say that Bolivian cinema makes better movies with fewer resources than its wealthier neighbors. Movies like “Tu Me Manques” and “Utama” deserved far more consideration from AMPAS...They screwed up, because these films deserved at least a shortlist spot. Bolivia has had a slow movie year so far with only one major national release- “Old Soldiers” (Viejos soldados), a big war movie about the Chaco War by Jorge Sanjines…a respected 87-year old director who helped establish Bolivian cinema in the 1960s. Last I heard, there were no English subtitles…the same thing that doomed his film that was going to be submitted in 2012. I’m pretty sure Bolivia will send “Mano propia” by Gory Patino who represented Bolivia in 2018 with the wonderful thriller “Muralla” and would have again in 2022 (for "Pseudo") if “Utama” hadn’t been the best-reviewed Bolivian film in decades. “Mano propia”, a thriller about vigilante justice, is set to premiere a few days before the deadline. Also eligible: “Nicola” is a fantastic new indie LGBT documentary that opened during Pride Month and "An Embrace from the Chaco", is a rare Bolivian animated film….but they're probably too small to compete against these two big directors.

 

3.      Brazil- “I’m Still Here” In 2024, Brazil had just two films in the Main Competition of major film festivals, and they’re both by very well-respected directors- Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” (Venice) and Karim Ainouz’s “Motel Destino”. “I’m Still Here”, about an unassuming woman forced into political activism after Brazil’s military regime abducts her husband, is the clear favorite. Salles hasn’t made a fully Brazilian film in 15 years, and “Here” reunites Salles with grande dame Fernanda Montenegro (who will be 95 this year) who he helped to a much-deserved Oscar nomination for “Central Station”. It has also been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics which helps a lot. It’s hard to believe, but Brazil hasn’t been nominated in this category since then and “I’m Still Here” may be their best chance in years. However, Salles refused to submit “Linha de Passe” (his last Brazilian film) to the Oscars saying that it was “a far more complex process than it seems….requiring a dedication of several months”. But “I’m Still Here” could actually win….so I BET he’ll agree to try again. Karim Ainouz’s erotic thriller “Motel Destino” premiered at Cannes and reviews have been good but not Oscar worthy.  I plan to update this when Brazil comes up with their “longlist” of official contenders to see if Salles and Ainouz are in play or not. Other films likely to appear on that list include “Betania”, “Heartless”, “The Hijacking of Flight 375”, “Mussum” and “Power Alley”.

4.      Canada- “Universal Language” The hot word is that Canada is going to go with the quirky “Universal Language”, an odd little film by Anglophone filmmaker Matthew Rankin which reimagines Manitoba as a bilingual province speaking Persian and French. It won the Director’s Fortnight Audience Award at Cannes and has gotten very good reviews. However, Canada’s Academy, which used to be so good at picking nominees, has ignored real contenders (including “Falcon Lake” in 2022 and “Solo” in 2023) for documentaries about non-Canadians, both good (“Rojek”) and not so good (“Eternal Spring”). So, “Language” is not a sure thing. “Kanaval”, about Haitian immigrants, or “Ru”, about Vietnamese immigrats, could threaten, as could upcoming dramas “Shepherd” (by the director of Canada’s 2019 submission) and “Le grand vide”. Dark horses: “1995”, an indie film about a man travelling the world making short films, “Red Rooms”, a thriller that got Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay nominees at the Canadian Screen Awards, and “Who By Fire”, which won the 14+ Best Film award at Berlinale.

5.      Chile- “In Her Place” The frontrunner for Chile is clearly two-time Oscar nominee Maite Alberdi’s first fiction feature, “In Her Place”, based on an acclaimed Chilean novel. The question is whether this legal drama about a secretary working on a sensationalist murder case is eligible. It’s set to be released on Netflix in October – after the Oscar deadline – so Chile would need to do a one-week qualifying release before then...and I'm pretty sure they will. They could also consider Bolivian co-production “The Dog Thief” (which has a Chilean director), “Maybe It's True What They Say About Us” (Quizás es cierto lo que dicen de nosotras) about a mother confronting a cult, abortion drama “Outsider Girls” and constitution documentary “Oasis”. Of these, I think “Outsider Girls” has the best chance to defeat Alberdi. UPDATE: Chile announced a six-film shortlist, which includes "In Her Place" and "Maybe It's True" alongside comedies "History and Geography" and "Bad Habits", thriller "Prison in the Andes" and sci-fi/drama "Analogos". I still think "In Her Place" will win this easily, with "Prison in the Andes" second because it highlights Chile's dictatorship history, and "Maybe It's True" in third. The other three will get participation trophies. 

6.      Colombia- “Skin in Spring” (La piel en primavera) I think Colombia will send “Skin in Spring”, a drama about a mother in Medellin seeking a second chance at love and life. It premiered in Berlin and has slightly warmer reviews than their other major contender from Berlin, “I Saw Three Black Nights”, about an elderly Afro-Bolivian man who encounters a paramilitary group while on an important personal journey. Their other three possibilities so far are “La suprema” (Toronto 2023), about an aspiring female boxer, “Malta” (SXSW 2024), about a Colombian saving money to emigrate to Europe, and “Salt Water”, an LGBT film about an adult who reconnects with the priest who molested him. Dark horses: two upcoming films at Toronto 2024 (“Horizonte” and “Pimpinero”) could premiere in time…but probably won’t. Andres Baiz directed one of Colombia’s best-ever submissions (“Satanas”) in 2007 so I’m very excited to see “Pimpinero”, an exciting new thriller.

7.      Costa Rica - “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde) Costa Rica will probably choose Berlinale Panorama winner “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde), about aging and sexuality among three older women. Central American films rarely win awards at an international level like this. It’s main competition is “Not Only the Bird is Beautiful” (No solo es hermoso el pájaro), a surreal drama about a man looking for a missing woman, which won Best Costa Rican film at the national film festival in July. Dark horse: documentary “Lo que olvidamos” tells the story of a middle-class activist gunned down by police while awaiting trial.

8.      Cuba- “Wild Woman” (La mujer salvaje) Cuba only sends films to the Oscars occasionally. Last year, the film’s “Nelsito’s World” appeared on the unofficial AMPAS list of films. It was assigned to a group of Oscar voters but was never downloaded to the Oscar screening room, and mysteriously disappeared from contention. Not sure what happened there, but Cuba has now been absent the past three years. If they do send a film, it’s almost sure to be “Wild Woman” (Toronto), which won some awards at the national film festival and which shows the influence of social media even in Communist Cuba. In a Cuban “Run Lola Run”-type scenario, a young mother out partying is suddenly thrust onto a quest to find her son and flee her neighborhood when a social media post seeks to incriminate and effectively “cancel” her. It’s one of the Latin American films I most want to see this year. Other possibilities: “Natural Phenomena” and “A Night with the Rolling Stones”.

9.      Dominican Republic – “Boca Chica” The Dominican Republic has a fierce race since all three movies I predicted last year (“La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Boca Chica”) are actually eligible this year, as are the two big winners at the 2024 National Film Awards (“The Art Dealer” and “Freddy”) and a few quirky festival offerings (“Pepe”, “Olivia & the Clouds” and “Bionico’s Bachata”) ….So, this will be a competitive and exciting race for the Dominican Republic. For the second year in a row, I’m predicting “Boca Chica” (Tribeca 2023) about the perils of a 12-year old girl coming-of-age in a tourist town famous for sex tourism. It’s arguably the best-reviewed of the eight contenders and seems to match the style of the films the Dominican Republic usually sends (last year was an outlier; they sent a commercial comedy). The DR often likes to submit its favorite directors again and again, which bodes well for “La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Pepe”.  Although reviews have generally been weak, the Berlin berth and Best Director win for “Pepe” should elevate the surreal hippopotamus drama to runner-up….the animal drama angle worked for “EO”. Dominican Film Awards winner “Freddy”, a biopic of a Dominican comedian, should come third, with Leticia Tonos’ innovative sci-fi drama “Aire” (starring Spanish star Paz Vega) fourth and drama “The Art Dealer” (El vendedor del arte) rounding out the Top 5.

10.  Ecuador- “Behind the Mist” (Al otro lado de la niebla) Ecuador had some bad luck last year. Their Academy had a change of leadership and they informed me that they were still awaiting approval for their new Oscar selection committee when last year’s deadline passed….but they committed to returning in 2024 and have already launched a call for submissions. The frontrunner has to be documentary “Al otro lado de la niebla” about Ecuador’s most famous director (Sebastian Cordero) and Ecuador’s most famous mountaineer on an exhibition to Nepal together. It’s directed by Cordero, who has been selected twice before and it got a local release in January. Their two other options are thriller “2 Days in Quito” and drama “On the Invention of Species”( La Invención de las Especies), about a young girl in the Galapagos Islands.

11.  El Salvador- “Indigo” (Añil) El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never participated in the Oscars. A Salvadoran co-production represented Honduras a few years ago, and the Salvadoran co-director has a new documentary (“Indigo”) analyzing the use of sexual violence against women in modern Salvadoran history. Also eligible: “Dangerous Desires” (El Placer De Dar Placer), a thriller about a bachelor party gone wrong.

12.  Greenland- “Twice Colonized” Politically part of Europe but geographically part of the Americas, Greenland (pop: 57,000) is the smallest country in the Oscar race. Although they submitted films in 2010 and 2012, they haven’t entered the race in over a decade. Some people are talking about “Kalak” (San Sebastian) a film about sexual trauma that was made in Greenland and is clearly about Greenlandic culture….but made by a Swedish director, starring a Norwegian lead actor, and featuring a mostly Danish crew. I’m not sure it would meet the nationality requirements, so I’m predicting “Twice Colonized” (Sundance), a documentary about activists fighting for indigenous Greenlandic rights. It’s much more likely to be considered “Greenlandic” (including a co-writer and co-producer).

13.  Guatemala- “Rita” Guatemala got its Oscar committee re-approved by AMPAS around 2015 and they’ve submitted three films since then. Two were made by Jayro Bustamente, including the shortlisted horror-drama “La Llorona”...so it would be foolish to expect Guatemala to submit anything other than Bustamente’s new film, “Rita”, another urban drama tinged with horror and fantasy. It looks great!

14.  Haiti- “Kidnapping Inc.” Haiti has sent films twice but it’s more unstable than usual this year so I doubt they are really thinking about making movies. Actress/director Gessica Geneus directed Haiti’s last submission and she stars in a new movie that was somehow made amidst the violence in Haiti last year- “Kidnapping Inc.”. According to IMDB, crew members were actually kidnapped during the production. I see this comedy-drama as Haiti’s only real option.

15.  Honduras- “Prisionera”  Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020 but their selection committee appears to be defunct. If they decide to submit, it will probably be “Prisionera”, about a woman who has been kidnapped to a remote forest location.

16.  Mexico- “Pedro Paramo” Mexico is always confusing but I’m predicting they send the ghostly “Pedro Paramo”, which is set to premiere in September in Toronto and then move to Netflix. Starring Tenoch Huerta (“Black Panther 2”) and written by Mateo Gil (who wrote the Oscar-winning “The Sea Inside”), this seems to have the pedigree to represent Mexico which usually picks films with Netflix deals…and very possibly get them another spot on the shortlist (they’ve somehow been shortlisted four years in a row without a single nomination, although I hated three out of four). The high-profile “Paramo” is likely to meet the same fate. “Sujo” (aka “Son of a Hitman”) won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and probably should be picked instead….will probably come second. A new film by Oscar nominee Carlos Carrera (and the only one I actually want to see) will come third with family telenovela-cum-thriller “Confessions”. Others likely to be on Mexico’s longlist: “Bad Actor” (Tallinn Black Nights), cockfighting thriller “Mi gallo” and Tatiana Huevo’s grandmas & granddaughters documentary “Echo”, revenge drama “The Day Everything Changed”, and, if eligible”, “Mexico 86” by Guatemalan-Belgian director Cesar Diaz. I expected more from Amat Escalante’s Netflix thriller “Lost in the Night” but that got rather poor reviews so it’s out of contention.

17.  Nicaragua- “Patrol”  Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010, even though they had quite a strong contender two years ago. They won’t send anything this year but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict documentary “Patrol” which has represented Nicaragua at some Latin American festivals this year. It’s about the devastating effect that miners and ranchers are having on a protected area in Nicaragua.

18.  Panama- “God Is A Woman” Last year, Panama joined the “ten films in a row” club (although one submission didn’t make the final list), the hallmark of a regular participant in this category. Four of these ten films were documentaries. If Panama chooses a documentary this year, it’s likely to be “Bila Burba” or “God Is a Woman”, both of which are about the trials of Panama’s indigenous communities. If they want a fiction film, they’ll probably consider “Chacaleria”, a crime drama, and “Despierta Mama”, about a missing girl. My prediction: “God is a Woman” by Franco-Panamanian Andres Peyrot, about the rediscovery of a lost film about Panama’s indgenous Kuna community. Runner-up: “Chacaleria”.

19.  Paraguay- “The Last” (Los ultimos) Paraguay has a fairly easy choice this year and will likely choose environmental documentary “The Last” (IDFA), whose director produced the award-winning “The Heiresses”…probably the closest Paraguay has ever come to the Oscar shortlist. It focuses on deforestation and wildfires in the vulnerable Gran Chaco region. If it doesn’t get a local release, they could send local horror film “Do No Enter” (No entres)….or not send anything at all like in 2019 when they refused to send any of films that were submitted.

  

20.  Peru- “Yana-Wara” Peru’s submission last year- “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli”- was a master-class in tragicomedy….funny, sentimental and sad. The year before, they sent the flawed but supremely original (and devastatingly sad) “Moon Heart”. Peru is one of the reasons I still try to watch all the films each year…even when so many of them aren’t good. Peru’s problem is that their leading films are often released months (or sometimes over a year) after they appear at festivals. So, having a release date on the books is key. That means this year’s two frontrunners are the Spanish-language “Reinas” (Queens) which premiered at Berlinale and will be released in Peru in August, and the Aymara-language “Yana-Wara”, which was released in April, nearly a year after premiering at last year’s Lima Film Festival. The Quechua-language “Daughter of the Moon” (Killapa Wawan) could join them in the unlikely event it gets a local release after its premiere at the Lima Film Festival last week. This is a tough choice….”Yana Wara”, about a respected Aymara elder accused of a mysterious murder, has a great backstory (the director died partway and the film was completed by his uncle) and slightly better reviews…..while “Reinas”, a family drama set amidst Peru’s political chaos in the 1990s, has the festival prestige of Berlin and Locarno. "Reinas" has already been shortlisted by Switzerland, where it appears to be the favorite...and the Peruvian Academy has a history of highlighting Indigenous stories so I’m predicting “Yana-Wara”…but this will be close. Dark horse: “Diogenes”, about two Quechua siblings being raised in a remote mountain area.  Likely eligible next year: “Through Rocks and Cloud” and “Kinra”, which were in this year's Main Competition at Lima, plus “Family Album” and next year’s probable submission “Los indomables”. 

21.  Puerto Rico- “Feet in the Sand” (Pies en la arena) Puerto Rico was uninvited from the Oscars in 2011 which I’ve always found extremely unfair. But last year, they were invited to submit a film to the Spanish Goyas for the first time- where they managed a nomination against more established Latin American countries. Hopefully this means they will be invited to the Oscars again soon. If they were allowed to send a film, it would probably be “Feet in the Sand”, about two illegal immigrants from Cuba and the Dominican Republic who try to build a new life in Puerto Rico. I was going to pick transgender drama “Fisherman’s Daughter” but it seems to be a majority Colombian production. Hope to welcome back Puerto Rico soon!

22.  Suriname- “Mother Suriname” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent a film just once in 2020. They don’t seem to have any local films this year, but they could consider “Mother Suriname”, a Netherlands-majority documentary by a Dutch director of Surinamese descent, about one hundred years of Surinamese history, as seen through the eyes of her late grandmother.

23.  Uruguay- “Don’t You Let Me Go” This year, Uruguayan filmmakers have worked mostly on minority co-productions but they’ll still definitely send something…and that is most likely to be “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame fuerte), which won the Nora Ephron award at Tribeca. It’s a spare 70-minute film about grief, as a woman mourns the loss of her best friend…and yet it does this with the sense of humor that the Uruguayan Academy has shown it loves. Co-director Leticia Jorge has been selected before. That’s the clear frontrunner but Uruguay made a surprise choice last year so hostage thriller “7 Bullets” could also be the one. Most Uruguayan productions this year are documentaries , so Back to the Light” (a blind woman) or “Pepe’s Dreams” (a former President) are dark horses. Eligible next year: zombie comedy “Summer Hit”, by the director of Un Certain Regard winner “Whisky”, will premiere Halloween week.

24.  Venezuela- “Mi tia Gilma” Venezuela has one of the most confusing races in Latin America this year…and not just because they’re going through a political crisis as dictator Nicolas Maduro tries to steal national elections held this summer. Despite contentious relations with the USA, the Venezuelan Academy hasn’t failed to send a film since 1996 (their 2005 submission arrived late after a dispute in Caracas)….and they’ve sent some truly wonderful films over the years (the best I’ve seen have been the two from Lorenzo Vigas, but I haven’t seen them all). Despite pre-election tensions, the annual Festival de Cine Venezolano took place as scheduled in June. The three big winners among the 24 candidates were “La sombra del Catire” (14 prizes including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay), “Visceral” (8 prizes including the Jury Prize) and “Mi tia Gilma” (2 prizes including Best First Film). "Catire" is tentatively scheduled to open in october, and “Visceral” is officially scheduled for November (after the September 30 deadline) and "Gilma" doesn't have a domestic release dates. “Children of the Revolution”, a potential contender from last year, has not been given permission to screen in Venezuelan cinemas by CNAC, which picks the Venezuelan nominee. So, what will they send? Maybe hybrid docudrama “Lost Chapters”, about a woman who returns from abroad to take her of her ailing grandmother? Human trafficking drama “Tango Bar”? Or “Hambre”, about two Venezuelans considering whether to migrate?  “Tango Bar” got a domestic release…but will any of the others? I’m certain to get this one wrong, but I’m going to predict Venezuela somehow manages a qualifying release for “Mi tia Gilma”, about a niece trying to help her upper-class aunt after she is brutally beaten by her husband, a senior military official. I have “Tango Bar” in second, mostly because it’s one of the only contenders that has actually been released.