FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (P-Z)

And here's the final batch of 32:  

 

Poland- “Leave No Traces” So, Poland announced early before I had the chance to make a prediction. Before they announced, they selected a four-film shortlist (all retro films set in the 80s and 90s). Hostage drama “Prime Time” got a berth at Sundance and had by far the highest profile but it also had the weakest reviews of the four. Action-comedy “Najmro” (aka “The Getaway King”) had arguably the best reviews…but it seemed very “local”, and the dour Polish Academy always goes with serious films. So, those two seemed unlikely. Most people felt the race was between LGBT-themed crime drama “Hyacinth”, which had the backing of Netflix, and “Leave No Traces” (Venice), about a young man in Communist-era Poland who witnesses a murder and becomes a wanted man as a result. “Hyacinth” had better reviews but the LGBT theme likely would have made some uncomfortable; “Leave No Traces” was not a surprise.

Portugal- “Shadow” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions without getting nominated (or even shortlisted!) and that trend looks set to continue. The shortlist should be announced soon but I expect the three main candidates will be Miguel Gomes’ weird COVID docudrama “The Tsugua Diaries” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight), missing child drama “Shadow” (Shanghai) and the upcoming drama “The Sound That Goes Down to Earth”, about a woman waiting for her husband to return from war in Angola. A possible spoiler is “The Metamorphosis of Birds” (Berlinale 2020); I can’t tell if it’s eligible or not. Last year, the Portuguese Academy chose a straightforward family drama with mainstream appeal (“Listen”) over the arthouse disaster favorite “Vitalina Verde”. When “Listen” was disqualified, “Vitalina” (the worst of the 80 films I saw last year despite incomprehensible acclaim from certain pretentious critics) still didn’t make the finals….So, even though “Tsugua” is probably going to be selected, I’m predicting a surprise for the more mainstream “Shadow”. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking?

Puerto Rico- “Perfume de gardenias” Puerto Rico was unfairly and unceremoniously disinvited from the International Oscar competition in 2010, after submitting films regularly since 1986, netting one Oscar nomination. The excuse was that they were a U.S. territory. Greenland, a Danish territory, was welcomed to enter films the same year, and Hong Kong continues to be invited (as they should be). If they were allowed to send a film, it would almost certainly be “Perfume de gardenias” (The Scent of Gardenias), a gentle drama about a group of elderly women who decide to stage elaborate, “custom-designed” funerals.

Romania- “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn” Romania won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Film Festival (for the third time in nine years) for “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”, a comedy-drama about a leaked sex tape that threatens to ruin a woman’s life. While not exactly Oscar’s traditional cup of tea, the film has gotten good reviews and Radu Jude has been selected twice in 2015 so the Romanian Academy likes him. Romania usually picks the obvious choice, so it’s pretty sure to get in. That’s bad news for Radu Muntean (“Intregalde”; Cannes Director’s Fortnight/Toronto) who almost seems to come close but never gets picked. Other options: “Immaculate” (Venice),  “Unidentified” (Warsaw), and “Otto the Barbarian”, a gritty youth drama which won Best Romanian film (beating “Loony Porn” and “Intregalde”) at the Transylvania International Film Festival.

Russia- “A Siege Diary” In the past ten years, Russia has sent five arthouse dramas that played at Cannes or Venice….all of them got nominated or shortlisted. They also sent four nationalist battle films about WWII. None of them advanced. So, following that logic, the four candidates should be “Petrov’s Flu” (Cannes, Main Competition), “Unclenching the Fist” (Winner, Cannes UCR), “House Arrest” (Cannes, UCR) and “Captain Volkonogov Escaped” (Venice, Main Competition). Frontrunner “Petrov’s Flu” probably won’t be selected because of the director’s political activities (he was banned from leaving Russia to attend Cannes because he’s on probation for political crimes). “House Arrest” is by a previously selected director but its story about using social media to combat political corruption also seems unlikely to be picked. But they could easily select “Volkonogov”, a thriller set amidst the Stalinist purges. “Unclenching the Fist”, a drama in Ossetian, as well as “Scarecrow” in Yakut, both about life in Russia’s remote ethnic republics, have gotten strong notices but they’re both much “smaller” and more female-centered than the Russian Academy usually goes. I think Russia will select “A Siege Diary”, about a woman on a journey to see her father one final time during WWII, which has swept a number of Russian film awards this year and whose topic is likely to please those who want a WWII film and those who want an intimate arthouse film. It was nominated for Best Picture at Russia’s Oscars (the Nikas) where it lost to “Dear Comrades”, won at Russia’s Golden Globes (the Golden Eagles) where it beat “Dear Comrades”, as well as the 2020 Moscow Film Festival. One final dark horse is chess drama “Champion of the World”, which is set to be released at the end of the year. My predictions for the Top 5: “Siege”, “Volkonogov”, “Champion”, “Unclenching the Fist” and “Petrov”.  

Saudi Arabia- “Tambour of Retribution” Saudi Arabia has gone from banning cinemas to producing some of this competition’s most interesting films year after year. This year they have two great choices. Frontrunner “The Tambour of Retribution” is a period drama based on a forbidden romance between the son of an executioner and the daughter of a traditional musician. It won Best Actor in Cairo and can be seen on Netflix. But the Saudis- who used to produce barely one feature film per years- also had two new films debuting at the Red Sea Film Festival this summer. Family drama “40 Years and One Night” looks like a really interesting look at Saudi family dynamics that could certainly be chosen, while mystery “Carnaval City” is unlikely to be compete here.

Senegal- “Saloum” Horror-thriller “Saloum” premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it’s probably Senegal’s only realistic choice. It’s gotten quite good reviews for its weird story of criminals vs. monsters in remote regions of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. It's one ofthe films I'm most excited to see .

Serbia- “Celts” So, Serbia selected “Oasis”…..But they announced while I was in the middle of my predictions and had that listed with Karlovy Vary winner “As Far As I Can Walk” as “unlikely but possible”. The Serbs tend to choose rousing, nationalist tales or stories about proud but struggling Serbian families, and these two (“Oasis”, a small film about a center for the intellectually disabled, and “As Far As I Can Walk”, about African refugees) don’t fit that profile. I was probably going to pick “Bad Blood”, a drama about Serbs struggling against the Ottoman Empire, or “Celts” (which has played at a ton of festivals and won Best Director at Sarajevo), about Serbia struggling during the early days of the fall of Yugoslavia.

Singapore- “Precious is the Night” Singapore has had a pretty quiet film year and the only really serious contender is “Precious is the Night”, a moody Chinese-language thriller set in 1960s Singapore that has been compared to the style of Wong Kar-Wai. It would be a shoo-in, although the director is Taiwanese and not Singaporean. Crime drama “Malam” (in Malay) and “Singapore Vignettes” (about the country’s Indian expat community) are less likely.

Slovakia- “The Man with Hare Ears” Director Martin Sulik has made seven fiction features since Slovakia gained independence in 1993, and Slovakia has sent his films seven times. So, it would be foolish to count out his eighth- absurdist comedy “The Man with Hare Ears”, about a 60-year old man with a young pregnant wife and his sudden development of huge rabbit (hare) ears. It was originally scheduled to be released in 2020 but due to COVID delays, it was released in 2021 and is eligible this year. The truth is that they don’t have much else. For the first time since I can remember there were no majority Slovak fiction features at Karlovy Vary (which is what they usually choose) though they did have “At Full Throttle”, a lively documentary about a 50-something miner who wants to be a race-car driver. That’s the main competition. In 3^rd place: ”107 Mothers” (Venice, Best Screenplay), about a Ukrainian women’s prison.

Slovenia- “Sanremo” Slovenia doesn’t have much this year but they do have “Sanremo”, a geriatric romance about two elderly folks getting to know each other in a nursing home. Other options include “Deadlock” (Belgrade; Vinko Moderndorfer has repped Slovenia before), “Inventory” (San Sebastian) and “Once Were Humans”.  UPDATE: Slovenia chose “Sanremo”. I saw the film today and it's devastatingly sad, while maintaining a wry sense of humor. The main story is well-done, but it peters out before the end. 

South Africa- “Sons of the Sea” Thriller “Sons of the Sea” won Best South African Film at the Durban International Film Festival, and looks like the sort of gritty drama that the South African Academy loves to send. According to the trailer, it’s mostly in Afrikaans but there is quite a bit of English which could affect its eligibility. It’s about black market seafood just like Malta’s Luzzu”….Who knew that could be such an exciting topic?  In this film, a young man finds a dead body next to a particularly valuable haul. Among their other options- 2^nd place- “Pusha Pressa Phanda” (Durban), a spare 61-minute drama in Zulu about 24 hours in the life of an impoverished young girl tasked with getting medicine and sanitary pads for her sister, 3^rd place- “Hotel on the Koppies”, a drama in four languages about different people stuck in place during COVID lockdown, and 4^th  place- “Good Madam” (Toronto), a Xhosa-language horror-thriller about a Xhosa woman and her mother taking care of a catalonic, elderly white woman.

Spain- “The Good Boss” As usual, Spain has announced a shortlist of three films despite a very competitive year. Nearly twenty years ago (in 2002), the Spanish Academy made a controversial decision selecting Fernando Leon’s “Mondays in the Sun” (starring Javier Bardem) over Pedro Almodovar’s “Talk to Her”. This year, we have a rematch between Fernando Leon’s “The Good Boss” (starring Javier Bardem) and Pedro Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” (Venice). In both years, Almodovar was the favorite due to his previous Oscar wins and higher international profile. So, what will Spain do? It will be down to the wire but “The Good Boss”, a comedy about the office intrigue caused by a dismissed employee, has better reviews than “Mondays in the Sun” and is said to be Leon’s best film yet. “Parallel Mothers” has gotten good reviews…but not as good as Almodovar usually gets. While Almodovar and star Penelope Cruz are huge, Javier Bardem is now a much more recognizable star than he was in 2002…and the Spanish Academy has a history of going with their gut. So, I think “The Good Boss” will win this. As in 2002, the third film- “Mediterraneo”, starring Sergi Lopez- is probably not a realistic choice. Iciar Bollain’s “Maixabel”, widely considered a favorite for the 3-film shortlist and the Spanish nomination, is already out of luck.

Sri Lanka- “Bulletproof Children” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009 and there’s no indication they’ll rejoin this year. Like most South Asian countries, COVID has had a terrible impact on local cinema but if they chose a film, I’d predict it would be “Bulletproof Children”, about a possible terrorist attack targeting a cricket match. It got a surprising nomination at China’s Golden Rooster Awards. They could also choose “Colombo”, an urban drama, or “Ayu”, about a pregnant woman who discovers a deadly secret after an automobile accident.

Sudan- “Goodbye Julia” Sudan submitted a film for the first time last year and much was made of the fact that Sudan- one of Africa’s largest countries- had only produced a handful of films since independence in 1956. I don’t think they have anything eligible but they do have a potential contender in post-production, namely “Goodbye Julia”, about a Sudanese Arab woman devastated at causing the death of a South Sudanese man, who gives his unknowing wife a job as a housemaid. It’s won several “in-production” awards and will likely be Sudan’s second submission whenever it’s released.

Suriname- Nothing. Dutch-speaking Suriname (pop: 600,000) sent a film for the first time last year. I’m fairly certain they don’t have anything eligible this year.

Sweden- “Sabaya” Sweden traditionally announces a three-film shortlist but the Nordic country has had a fairly quiet film year and the three films seem pretty obvious- (1)- “The Emigrants”, the upcoming remake of the beloved 1971 film (nominated for Best Foreign Film and Best Picture) about Swedish immigrants to the United States, (2)- “Sabaya” (Sundance), a documentary in Arabic and Kurdish about the rescue of ISIS sex slaves in Syria, and (3)- “Tigers”, a sports drama about a young Swedish footballer who joins AC Milan. “Tigers” won Best Nordic Film at Sweden’s Goteborg Film Festival and was the Swedish nominee for the 2021 Nordic Film Prize…but it’s clearly out of its league against the other two heavy-hitters. Nobody has seen the new “The Emigrants” (it’s scheduled to premiere in December) but “Sabaya” has been getting rave reviews for its incredibly brave story. It will be very, very close but I think the recent nominations for “Honeyland” and “Collective” (and the Doc nomination for the shortlisted “Mole Agent”) will encourage Sweden to select “Sabaya”, which already has US distribution and could be a contender for Documentary as well. Swedish-helmed, Polish-language drama “Sweat”, Costa Rican co-production “Clara Sola”, and documentary “The Scars of Ali Boulala” could be surprise picks for the shortlist….but they would never be selected.

Switzerland- “Neighbours” This is another one that I’ve already gotten wrong. Switzerland announced a nine-film shortlist including seven fiction features and two documentaries. The Swiss tend to make a lot of co-productions and the films were a multi-lingual bunch with four in national languages (three in German and one in French), four set overseas in Argentina, Paraguay, Russia and Syrian Kurdistan, and one about a Ukrainian in Switzerland.  When Switzerland announced, I had just divided the films into the three frontrunners- “Girl & the Spider” (Berlin) “Monte Verita” (the only Swiss film in competition at Locarno) and the Kurdish drama “Neighbours” (Shanghai), the three dark horses (“Azor”, “Caged Birds” and “Olga”) and the three also-rans (“The Fam”, “Nothing But the Sun” and “Ostrov, The Lost Island”). I was leaning towards picking “Neighbours” when Switzerland made their announcement. In the end, it was gymnastics drama “Olga” (Cannes) that was selected.

Syria- “Republic of Silence” A pro-opposition group from war-torn Syria formed an Oscar committee once in 2017, sending a documentary. I’m not sure if the committee is still active, but they had two films appear at Venice sidebars this year, namely documentary “Republic of Silence” and drama “The Stranger”. While “Republic of Silence”, a non-linear 3-hour doc filmed over the course of twelve years, might be an unconventional choice, it’s probably what the committee in exile would choose. But they probably will skip.

Taiwan- “The Falls” It’s rare that a director represents his country two years in a row but Chung Mong-hong- whose “A Sun” made the shortlist last year and probably competed with France and Norway for sixth place- is likely to achieve that feat with COVID drama “The Falls”, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Following a mother and daughter whose relationship becomes ever more tense as they live together in a luxurious Taipei apartment, it isn’t as universally beloved as “Sun” but is probably the best Taiwanese film of the year. Arthouse director Tsai Ming-liang was chosen twice in the 2000s and his “Days” may or may not be eligible (I’m not sure) but it won a Teddy at Berlinale 2020 so that’s another possibility. Netflix mystery “The Soul”, about two detectives trying to solve the murder of a man working on a cure for cancer, is also a strong possibility, especially if they want to help publicize a newer director. Rounding out the Top Five options are Zero Chou’s lesbian noir “Wrath of Desire” and comedy-drama “Man in Love”…but those two seem rather unlikely. Taiwan will announce its nominations for the Golden Horse Film Awards on October 5^th which should make things clearer.

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Tajikistan- “Provincial Dreamers” Tajikistan hasn’t submitted a film since 2005 (which was disqualified). They’re unlikely to enter this year but they do have a new film called “Provincial Dreamers”, a comedy about a rural couple trying to marry off their daughter. Tajikistan makes very few films but they’ve produced some real gems over the years including their two Oscar submissions (“Luna Papa” and “Sex and Philosophy”) as well as “Angel on the Right” and “True Noon”.

Tanzania- “Binti” Tanzania submitted a film once in 2001 (“Maangamizi”) and when I visited the country in July, there were posters celebrating the film’s 20^th anniversary. However, Tanzania never sent a film again. The winner of this year’s Zanzibar International Film Festival was “Binti”, a female-driven film about the lives of four Tanzanian women living in the capital city, and Tanzania could rejoin the competition by sending it. The Tanzanian film in competition at FESPACO 2021 (“Farewell Amor”) is set in the United States and appears to be mostly in English.

Thailand- “One for the Road” Thailand is probably hoping that Colombia sends Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s (mostly Spanish-language) “Memoria”, which won a Cannes Jury Prize in July. It’s a strange thriller starring Tilda Swinton about a woman who starts hearing mysterious noises. I’m not a Apichatpong fan….and neither is the Thai Academy. They picked him once when he somehow won the Cannes Palme d’Or, but his style is not really appreciated in Thailand, although it does seem to have enough Thai crew to be eligible. Assuming they snub “Memoria”, they have three interesting options: (1)- “Anatomy of Time” (Venice Horizons), a weird Buddhist meditation on life,  (2)- “The Medium”, by the well-regarded director of “Shutter”, it’s a Korean horror co-production that won the Bucheon Fantasy Film Festival (one of the best-organized fests I have ever attended), and (3)- “One for the Road” (Sundance), by a previously selected director, a tearjerker about two friends on a final road trip around Thailand before one dies of cancer. Some people are also mentioning “Edge of Daybreak” but that’s too much of a political hot potato.  Thailand is less impressed by film festivals than most countries and has regularly chosen rom-coms, horror films and thriller that other countries won’t touch. They also like films that showcase Thailand’s beauty and culture. I think road movie “On the Road” will be the national choice, not least because it has already played and gotten decent reviews in the USA at Sundance. “The Medium” won’t play well with AMPAS, but that’s the likely runner-up (and the film I’m most interested in seeing).

Tunisia- “Streams” Tunisia got a surprise (but well-deserved) first International Oscar nomination last year for Kaouther Ben-Ania’s “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (although her earlier “Beauty and the Dogs” was even better). They don’t have too much to choose from during this COVID year but they do have “Streams” (Locarno) about a woman recently released from prison who seeks to reconnect with her son. It looks very good. If that’s not released in time, they could choose Leyla Bouzid’s cross-cultural Islamic love story “A Tale of Love and Desire” (Cannes, International Critics Week). Though it’s a majority French production, it represented Tunisia at FESPACO. In third place: “Black Medusa” (Rotterdam) a thriller about an outwardly shy woman who becomes a vamp in the evenings.

Turkey- "Paper Lives" So, Turkey usually chooses films from Nuri Bilge Ceylan and Semih Kaplanoglu whenever they're eligible. I'm not a big fan of either director (their films are too long and too slow....) but everyone is expecting Turkey's submission will be "Commitment: Hasan", the second in Kaplanoglu's new trilogy. "Commitment: Asli" was selected two years ago (I know I fell asleep at least once) despite tepid reviews and "Hasan" could be chosen as well especially since it played at Cannes Un Certain Regard. That's a shame because Turkey produces a lot of better films...They just don't tend to send them to the Oscars. There are three other options that I really think Turkey could consider. "Paper Lives" is a Netflix release (so was last year's submission) by a relatively unheralded director named Can Ulkay most notable for being selected in 2017 for a film nobody had every heard of. "Paper Lives" about life on the mean streets of Istanbul is both better reviewed (though better with audiences more than critics) and more well-known. "Ghosts", about the lives of four characters on an average day in Istanbul is the critical favorite, having won Best Picture in Antalya, Best International Film from the Online Film Critics Society, and  the Critics Week Grand Prize at Venice 2020. "Anatolian Leopard", about zoo employees trying to hide the death of a prized animal, just won a major award at Toronto despite only slightly above-average reviews. Other dark horses: moral dilemma drama "Between Two Dawns" (San Sebastian) and the religious historical drama "Drunk on Love". Turkey's only film at a major festival- Kurdish boarding school drama "Brother's Keeper" (Berlin)- is probably the most deserving, but Turkey isn't likely to send a film in Kurdish. Turkey also makes strange decisions but I'm predicting "Paper Lives". 

Ukraine- “Why I’m Alive” Ukraine announced a five-film shortlist that was surprising only by the exclusion of Sergey Loznitsa’s new documentary “Babi Yar. Context” (perhaps it will be eligible next year?) This will be a battle between festival prestige and respect for age and experience. “Reflection”, one of several films about the war in eastern Ukraine, competed in Venice and Toronto and is the arthouse choice. It’s a grueling and difficult watch about a surgeon taken hostage by Russian forces, and Variety described it as “oblique, challenging and, if you’re up for it, one of the most intellectually provocative and rewarding films.” But director Valentyn Vasyanovych has been selected twice in the past four years for “difficult” films (which I didn’t like) and the Ukrainians may want to spread the wealth. “Why I’m Alive” is an expensive period piece with national funding made by an 83-year old director who came out of retirement to make the film. It’s a drama about a Jewish-Christian romance in a small Soviet Ukrainian town in the days leading up to WWII. The Ukrainian Academy usually goes arthouse, but this may be of greater interest to AMPAS. Youth drama “Stop Zemlia” (Berlin, 14+ Winner) will likely come third, while “Bad Roads” (another Donbass drama) and crime drama “Rhino” likely won’t make an impact. UPDATE: I clearly misjudged the Ukrainians….They selected “Bad Roads”, which I had as the biggest long-shot.

United Kingdom- “The Feast” The UK sent films most years between 1991 and 2002 before taking a six-year break. In 2007, there was a major controversy when BAFTA inexplicably decided not to send either of two eligible films in minority Celtic languages (Scots Gaelic and Welsh), and sent nothing instead. Ever since the outcry, the UK has sent films almost every year since 2008.  Last year, they skipped because they seemed to have nothing eligible but I’m fairly sure they’ll be back this year. This year, the big question is whether refugee comedy “Limbo” is eligible. The film, set in an asylum processing center on a remote British island, is in English and Arabic and I’m not sure if it’s meets the language requirement. I’m going to try and see it this week to judge for myself. If it’s eligible, it will probably represent the UK but my guess for now is no. In that case, Welsh-language horror film “The Feast”, which has gotten great reviews at international fantasy and horror festivals, will likely be selected. It’s a drama steeped in local mythology about a young woman who returns home to a remote rural section of Wales.

Uruguay- “The Employer and the Employee” An appearance at Cannes Director’s Fortnight and the presence of arthouse star Nahuel Perez Biscayart will probably be enough to get “The Employer and the Employee” selected by Uruguay. Director Manolo Nieto has been up for this before but never been selected, and the film has gotten good reviews for its “slow-burn drama” about the increasingly intense relationship between a second-generation white-collar employer and blue-collar employee. Two other options- thriller “The Year of Fury” (Warsaw) is a Spanish co-production set in Uruguay in the days before a military coup, and “Hilda’s Short Summer” (San Sebastian) is about a depressed mother whose son suddenly cancels a much-awaited visit. “Fury” has a Spanish director (Rafa Russo) and crew (and co-stars Maribel Verdu) so may have eligibility issues…so “Employer” is probably safe. It’s a shame that the biggest Uruguayan film of the year- Dario Argento-style horror-comedy film “The Last Matinee”- isn’t eligible (it was released too early) as the Academy would have had a heart attack. Potential spoiler: Gustavo Hernandez was selected once for horror flick “Silent House” and his new zombie movie- “Virus 32” looks interesting….Unlike most countries, Uruguay usually chooses comedies so “Ghosting Gloria”, about a woman who falls in love with a sexually talented ghost, could be picked.

Uzbekistan- “I Am Not a Terrorist” Last year, Uzbekistan announced that “2000 Songs of Farida” had been selected from a shortlist of three films to represent the country. According to the director, he was contacted by AMPAS right before the deadline saying that the Uzbek Film Commission had sent a copy of the film in the wrong format and that they hadn’t responded to requests for a corrected version. He said he was unable to fill this request in time and ultimately, the film didn’t appear on the list. He claimed that the film would instead compete in 2021, but I’m not sure how that would be possible. In any case, there were three new Uzbek films featured at this month’s Tashkent International Film Festival and I’d assume these are the three that are most likely to be considered- thriller “I Am Not a Terrorist”, historical costume drama “Mukimi” and musical-comedy “On the Wings of a Dream”. I don’t think “Mukimi”, about a revered poet, or the musical numbers will translate that well. “I Am Not A Terrorist”, about a man tricked into joining an extremist group, seems too controversial but it’s Uzbekistan’s most likely choice. 

Venezuela- “Opposite Direction” Despite political and economic crises, Venezuela’s movie industry continues to make quality movies and even managed to hold their annual Festival of Venezuelan Film the past two years during Covid. They have five underdog candidates, including the past two winners at the Festival, namely “Un destello interior” (Moscow), about a severely ill woman trying to find someone to care for her young daughter, and “Especial” (Chicago), about an alcoholic father taking care of his 23-year old son with Down’s Syndrome. Two others have played at a number festivals- “Fortitude” (Rotterdam), a modern-day tale of gold prospectors in the Venezuelan jungle, and “Opposite Direction”, about a woman being pressured to keep a promise she made 13 years earlier as a 17-year old. Last year they picked a documentary, so “La causa”, about a severely overcrowded prison, is also a possible contender. The frontrunner appears to be “Opposite Directions”; director Alejandro Bellame has been selected for his past two films, but this is a wide-open race. If “Directions” doesn’t get it, the three fiction features are in a dead heat. I predict “Fortitude” in second place and “Un destello interior” in third.

Vietnam- “Taste” Globalization means that the Vietnamese frontrunner has a Nigerian lead actor. “Taste” has played at some of the world’s leading film festivals this year (including Moscow, Berlin, Karlovy Vary and Busan), garnering mostly positive reviews for its largely wordless story featuring an injured Nigerian footballer living in poverty with four middle-aged Vietnamese women. They have plenty of silly movies released, but the only other film that I think they’d consider sending is “578”, a revenge-action movie about a man hunting the man who abused his daughter.

Yemen- Nothing. War-torn Yemen submitted two films in 2014 and 2016. I didn’t see “I Am Nojoom” but “10 Days Before the Wedding”, literally filmed in the middle of a civil war, was one of the best films I saw from the 2016-2017 competition. While that film was a surprising success at home and although the country still makes some television series, I don’t think Yemen has made any eligible films since then.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Three countries in this group have gotten Oscar-approved selection committees but have never actually sent a film to the Oscars- Rwanda, Uganda and the United Arab Emirates.  RWANDA has the best option of these three with “Nameless”, a tragedy about the struggles of a young couple in the capital. It’s representing the country at FESPACO. The UAE is arguably the most important filmmaking country in the world that has never sent a film. They’ve had good options the last few years but this year is mostly an empty slate. UGANDA has “Kemi”, about an unwanted pregnancy, but I think that was eligible last year. ZAMBIA has feminist drama “Maria Kristu”, about a young woman railing against conservative religious traditions. But it’s anarchic SOMALIA that has the best option of any new country with quirky love story “The Gravedigger’s Wife” which has delighted audiences at Cannes, Toronto and elsewhere. Filmed in neighboring Djibouti because of instability in Somalia, I simply can’t see Somalia forming a committee.

FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (K-P)

And here's the next batch of 32: 

65. KYRGYZSTAN- “Shambala” I’m keeping my prediction the same as last year since their two frontrunners that debuted at festivals in 2020 didn’t open in the country until Summer 2021. Kyrgyzstan sends some of my favorite Oscar submissions year after year and many of them are rural dramas set in Kyrgyzstan’s beautiful countyside. “Shambala”, about a 7-year old boy and his family, is based on a beloved writer’s story and won the Best Film from the CIS/Baltic Republics at the Russian Nika Awards…only the second time a Kyrgyz film has won (they submitted the previous one, “Heavenly Nomadic”). B&W drama “The Road to Eden”, about a renowned writer living out his last days on a small pension who is faced with a serious financial dilemma.

66. LAOS- “Goodbye Mr. Wong” Laos has only submitted a film once and they opted not to send “The Long Walk” (which competed at the Venice Film Festival) last year. Their only option is “Goodbye Mr. Wong”, a French co-production about a woman faced with offers from two suitors.

67. LATVIA- “The Pit” I originally predicted animated doc "My Favorite War" but it was pointed out to me that this was eligible for Latvia (and the Best Animated Feature category) last year. So, I think Latvia has two main contenders, namely “The Pit” and “The Year Before the War”. “The Year Before the War” (Rotterdam), a weird B&W historical revisionist thriller set in 1913, looks like the sort of film Latvia usually sends but reviews haven’t been strong. “The Pit”, a coming-of-age movie about a troubled boy with violent tendencies who is sent to the countryside after injuring a local girl, has better reviews and looks set to be the Latvian submission. Laika Pakalnina’s re-telling of Snow White- “In the Mirror”- is an unlikely dark horse.

68. LEBANON- “Costa Brava” Lebanon has so many problems and yet they produce so many great films. Last year, “Broken Keys” was one of the best films that didn’t make the shortlist…and it was reportedly almost not selected because “All This Victory” had strong reviews as well. This year, Lebanon had three films at Berlinale, and one each at Cannes and Venice. While we can forget the LGBT documentary (“Miguel’s War”), the other four will all likely be in play. The clear favorite is “Costa Brava, Lebanon” (the Venice “Orizzonti Extra” sidebar) which not only stars Nadine Labaki (who co-stars in most Lebanese submissions) and Saleh Bakri (who co-stars in another favorite potential nominee, “Amira”), but also has the best reviews and the baitiest plot- a family who flees the city to try and create a utopian environment in the mountains. It’s said to be very Oscary….In second place, “A Sea Ahead” (Cannes), about a Lebanese woman returning home. The two Berlin premieres- “Death of a Virgin and the Sin of Not Living”, a coming-of-age dramedy, and “Memory Box”, a Canadian co-production about three characters linked by a forgotten box of letters and tapes, will have an uphill climb.

69. LESOTHO- Nothing. The little African kingdom of Lesotho sent a film for the first time last year.  For me, “This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection” was one of the biggest disappointments of my film year. I really wanted to love it. And I didn’t. Anyway, Lesotho doesn’t seem to have anything eligible. They probably won’t send another film until director Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese makes another film at home.

70. LITHUANIA- “The Runner” Lithuania has a wide-open race though they’ll probably be deciding between a pair of mysteries- “Runner” (Karlovy Vary), about a young woman searching for her mentally ill boyfriend after he disappears, and “Pilgrims” (Venice Horizons), about two young people trying to learn the truth about a gruesome “cold case” murder. Director Andrius Blazevicius swept the Lithuanian Film Awards a few years ago for “The Saint”, but his film wasn’t sent to the Oscars…so they may feel that he and “Runner” are overdue. Other options- upcoming releases “I Am Fine, Thanks” and “Butterfly’s Heart”, both family dramas, as well as documentary “Gentle Warriors”, about women soldiers (and directed by the young daughter of Audrius Stonys, one of Lithuania’s most acclaimed documentarians who repped Lithuania twice).

71. LUXEMBOURG- “The Summit of the Gods” Cannes animated film “The Summit of the Gods” is considered the favorite to represent little Luxembourg. It’s about a Japanese photographer who finds a camera that belongs to a mountaineer who disappeared on Mount Everest. Luxembourg has selected animated films before and may want to get it entered into the Animated Feature competition. But they’ve selected documentaries three times before so I’m curious if they’ll opt for “The Living Witnesses” (exploring racism and fascism through the eyes of young people, and comparing them to WWII) or the very topical “Lost Flowers”, about a man caught up amidst COVID restrictions, quarantine and sick family members when he visits his parents in Italy. I think this is actually a dead heat between these three films, although the Netflix acquisition and Cannes label of “Summit of the Gods” gives that film a razor-thin advantage.

72. MACEDONIA- "Sisterhood" Macedonia, now officially called “North” Macedonia due to Greek bullyinhg is almost certain to choose “Sisterhood” (Sarajevo), by far their most high-profile film of the year. It’s about the modern-day troubles of two adolescent girls, including sex, drinking and the affect that social media has on today’s youth. It faces two possible challenges from end-of-year releases (if they come out), notably ensemble comedy “Snow White Dies at the End” and human trafficking drama “The Day of the Woman”.

73. MALAWI- “Highbrow” Malawi sent a film once in 2018. The only local film release I know of in 2021 is “Highbrow”, a drama about a young upstart appointed to a senior government position, but it appears to be entirely in English.

74. MALAYSIA- "Frontliner" Countries around the world have showcased minority communities and languages in this category (even nationalist France chose a movie that wasn't in French). But Malaysia, whose most acclaimed films and festival entries are mostly made by its Chinese minority community,  has avoided sending any of them. Most Malay films are silly action-comedies or horror films (they sent a fairly highbrow horror film last year) so they don't often have many real contenders. I'm guessing they'll send Netflix drama "Frontliner", which is scheduled to premiere on September 30. It's a topical look at the health and care workers on the "frontlines" of fighting COVID-19. But they could also choose nationalist action flick "Air Force", romantic drama "Biko" or sci-fi drama "Antaramasa". Of course, they'd do better to select a Malaysian-Chinese film like "Barbarian Invasion", about an aging actress offered an action movie role, or "Story of a Southern Islet", about a wife seeking a magical cure to her husband's illness. 

75. MALTA- “Luzzu” Tiny Malta submitted a film once in 2014 and it is 100% certain that “Luzzu”, which won a Special Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival, will bring the country back for a second time. Like their first submission, this is a maritime drama, this time about about a fisherman who gets involved with illegal fishing activities to help support his family. I had the privilege of seeing this lovely and thought-provoking film in Malta while on vacation this month. It's much more engaging than you would think from the plot description....and I've heard it's just gotten a US distributor. Watch it! 

76. MAURITANIA- “The Perfumed Hill” (but probably nothing) Mauritania got a well-deserved Oscar nomination in 2015 for its first and only Oscar submission, “Timbuktu” and they’re unlikely to return until Abderrahmane Sissako makes a new movie….which he hasn’t done since. There are rumors that his latest film- “The Perfumed Hill”, filmed in Africa and China- will be released this year, but its more likely we’ll see it in 2022.

77. MEXICO- "Prayers for the Stolen" I haven't researched Mexico yet but this is the favorite and it will almost certainly be my prediction. 

78. MOLDOVA- “Memory” Moldova submitted films two years in a row (2013/2014) but then never again.  Director Igor Cobileanski, whose “Unsaved” was sent in 2014, has a new film in production (“Coma”) that could be the next Moldovan submission (if they reform a committee). This year, the only film I know about is “Memory”, about a young couple who wake up with amnesia, living in a city and surrounded by people that know them but who they cannot remember.

79. MONGOLIA- “The Woman” Confusion over release dates makes Mongolia difficult. The Ulaanbaatar Film Festival took place November and included four new Mongolian films, including “Black Milk”, which premiere at the Berlin Film Festival in 2020, “Bedridden” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “The Woman”. I have no idea which of these were eligible last year and which were this year. “Black Milk” probably premiered so long ago that they won’t consider it. “Bedridden”, about an egotistical writer who decides he will remain in bed for the purpose of his writing, is clearly the more high-profile of the other two, but the Mongolian Academy (rightfully) likes to showcase the country’s beautiful national vistas and nomadic culture. A movie about staying in bed won’t do that, so I predict “The Woman”, about three women- a woman, her mother-in-law and her daughter- living in a remote mountainous region…and the man who keeps arriving to help the women and convince them to move to a town.

80. MONTENEGRO- “Elegy of Laurel” Tiny Montenegro had two films at major regional festivals, which is pretty good for them. “After the Winter” competed at Karlovy Vary and is about five small town friends who find their lives upended by the collapse of Yugoslavia. But it’s more likely they’ll choose “Elegy of Laurel”, a surrealist fantasy-drama that competed at Sarajevo, about a middle-aged couple who visit a forest.

81. MOROCCO- So, I got this one wrong. I know Morocco always chooses Nabyl Ayouch (four times between 1998-2017) but “Casablanca Beats”, which looks like a cross between “Gully Boy” and “Dangerous Minds”, is about rap music and doesn’t have the best reviews….So, I thought the Moroccan Academy would give someone else a chance. But they didn’t. I hadn’t researched Morocco yet and their release dates are always confusing (even before COVID, there is often a year-long gap between Moroccan films debuting at festivals and cinemas) but I thought “Autumn of Apple Trees”, “Zanka Contact” and anthology “Chronicles of Her” might be considered.

82. MOZAMBIQUE- “The Night Still Smells of Gunpowder” (but probably nothing) Mozambique submitted a film just once in 2017. Documentarian Inadelso Cossa, an AMPAS member, just won a “Final Cut” grant at Venice for post-production on his new feature-length documentary “The Night Still Smells of Gunpowder”, about the lives of people who survived the country’s devastating civil war of the 1980s. But it seems doubtful it will be screened in time.

83. NAMIBIA- New committee! SEE POSSIBLE DEBUTS

84. NEPAL- “Crushed Wings” Like many countries around the world, Nepalese cinemas have been closed nearly two years due to COVID, and they really don’t have much that seems to have been released. Add to that that the Nepalese Academy shortlisted two films last year and submitted neither, and that none of the country’s leading directors have anything new….so it seems likely that Nepal will be absent. Among their options if they do choose to submit are a few issue-based dramas (“Crushed Wings”, about female circumcision and “Paaila”, about dyslexia”) and a new spy thriller (“Ek”) pioneering a digital release in Nepal. For the sake of completion, I’ll go with “Crushed Wings”.

85. NETHERLANDS- "The Forgotten Battle" The Netherlands announced a shortlist of 14 films of mostly well-regarded but relatively unknown films. "The Forgotten Battle" checks a lot of boxes. Made by a director with Hollywood experience and written by Oscar nominee Paula van der Oest ("Zus & Zo"), it's an expensive (14 million euro) WWII epic with U.S. distribution (Netflix, October 21st), some relatively recognizable faces (Tom Felton) and some very good reviews. The Netherlands hasn't been nominated since 2003 and they are likely to want to play it safe. Their last nominee was "Twin Sisters" and director Ben Sombogaart has "My Best Friend Anne Frank"...but this is a small, low-budget effort that likely would get lost in the Oscar shuffle. If there is a film that can displace "Battle", it's more likely to be one of two thrillers- "The Judgement", a "based on a true story" film about a journalist battling political intrigue to uncover the truth about a murder, or Persian-language "Mitra", a thriller about a woman seeking revenge against a woman who betrayed her daughter and caused her to be executed in Iran.  The other films on the list include seven fiction features- "Anne+", "Do Not Hesitate", "The East", "Family Fox on Expedition", "I Don't Wanna Dance", "Meskina", "Ten Songs for Charity", and three documentaries "A Man and a Camera", "Shadow Game" (which will round out the Top 5) and "Silence of the Tides". 

86. NEW ZEALAND- “Cousins” Obviously New Zealand produces most of their films in English, but it’s possible that drama “Cousins” may have enough Maori to compete….the trailer is about 50-50 so I’m not sure. It’s about three young Maori cousins whose lives are changed when one of them is removed from their tight-knit Maori community and sent to an English-speaking orphanage. The girls are reunited decades later, showcasing how the different environments and opportunities have shaped their lives for better and for worse.

87. NICARAGUA- “Ernesto on Earth” Nicaragua has only sent one film in the past thirty years and I ‘m sure they won’t send anything this year. Technically, I suppose they could send “Ernesto on Earth”, a documentary about a revolutionary priest.

88. NIGER- “Zinder” According to the UN Human Development Index, Niger is the least developed country in the world. They unexpectedly sent a film once in 2018 and technically could send “Zinder”, a fascinating documentary exploring poverty, gangs and violence in the country’s marginalized and forgotten third-largest city.

89. NIGERIA- "Eyimofe" (This is My Desire) Nigerian drama "Eyimofe" was nominated for Best First Feature at the Berlin Film Festival 2020, a rare honor for a Nigerian film. COVID-related delays meant that the film finally debuted at home in April 2021. Filmed in Nigerian "Pidgin" English, I'm pretty sure that this will be the first Nigerian film to benefit from last year's new rule. The film is about a couple desperate to move abroad (a factory worker husband a hairdresser wife) who encounter various trials and tribulations on their way to achieving what they believe to be their life's dream. It's main competition is quirky horror-fantasy anthology "Juju Stories" (also in Nigerian "Pidgin") featuring three modern-day stories based on Nigerian folklore. That one sounds a lot more interesting but this should be an easy win for "Eyimofe", which has garnered very positive reviews overall and a coveted slot in the main competition of the FESPACO Film Festival.

90. NORWAY- “The Worst Person in the World” People are already talking about Cannes Best Actress winner “The Worst Person in the World” as one of the leading threats for an Oscar nomination, so this is almost certainly going to be the Norwegian submission. It’s about four years in the life of Norwegian millennial (which doesn’t sound like it will appeal to older AMPAS voters….but we’ll see!) So, the competition is really about which two of the other five contenders will get named on the Norwegian shortlist- (1) "The Battle for Narvik", an anti-Nazi historical drama that has just been added to the 2021 release schedule, (2) inspiring anti-terrorism documentary “Generation Utoya”, (3)- supernatural thriller, “The Innocents” (Cannes, UCR), (4) well-reviewed slacker dramedy “Ninjababy” (Berlin 14+), and (5)  Peter Naess’ tragicomedy “Nothing to Laugh About”. Anti-capitalist drama “Gritt” and disaster action flick “North Sea” could also appear but I think there’s too much competition for them. So, which two will join “The Worst Person in the World” on the shortlist? Probably “Nothing to Laugh About” (Naess got an Oscar nod for “Elling”), about a comedian with a terminal illness, and “Generation Utoya”, about the survivors of the 2011 right-wing terrorist attack in Utoya, Norway, with "Narvik" a potential spoiler. 

91. PAKISTAN- “Kamli” Poor Pakistan was starting to see a cinematic revival in the 2010s and last year’s submission, “Circus of Life” was one of the two best Oscar submissions out of the 80 I saw. The fact that it wasn’t nominated or even shortlisted showed that there is something wrong with the committee. Maybe after a year of living in Pakistan, it resonated more for me. In any case, coronavirus has caused innumerable problems. Cinemas have been closed for over a year and streaming isn’t well-developed so most of their releases have been sitting on the shelf. There are rumors that cinemas may be reopened this fall before the December 31^st cut-off date…so it all depends on what (if anything) is released. It’s rare that countries send the same director two years in a row, but that could happen with Sarmad Khoosat’s “Kamli”, which is described as a “tragic love story.” Originally scheduled for Summer 2020, it’s hoping for a 2021 release and I read somewhere it did get an experimental YouTube release. So, maybe it’s eligible? Other options include “The Legend of Maula Jatt”, a much-anticipated all-star remake of a 1970s series of blockbuster films (but probably too light to be selected), historical drama “Khel Khel Mein”, feminist documentary “This Stained Dawn”, or arthouse drama “The Window”, about the life of an abused child bride.

92. PALESTINE- “Huda’s Salon” Palestine has one of the year’s easiest choice and will surely select “feminist thriller” Huda’s Salon (Toronto) about a young mother who becomes a victim of a terrible blackmail attempt. Director Hany Abu-Assad has gotten two nominations for Palestine out of three tries (“Paradise Now” and “Omar”) and the film already has a U.S. distributor. Dark horse: If Egypt selects “Feathers”, then perhaps Palestine will be tempted to select Mohamed Diab’s “Amira” (Venice) which was made and set in the occupied Palestinian territories.

93. PANAMA- “Salta” Panama was supposed to have eight features (four fiction and four documentaries) released in 2021 but that looks increasingly unlikely due to continued uncertainty related to COVID. If it’s released, they’re guaranteed to send “Plaza Catedral”, a much-anticipated film by Abner Benaim about a divorced woman who helps a local youth after the death of her own son. The actor playing the youth was tragically killed earlier this year and Benaim has been submitted twice before. But I’m skeptical it will be screened before December so I’m guessing “Salta”, a story about modern love and romance in Panama. Less likely: wedding comedy “Something Blue” was the first local film released after COVID; “Tito, Margot y yo” is a documentary about a Panamian diplomat who married a prima ballerina.

94. PARAGUAY- “Nothing But the Sun” Paraguay sent a documentary by Arami Ullon as their first-ever Oscar submission in 2015. This year, they are likely to send her latest film “Nothing but the Sun”, a documentary about the Ayoreo people who live in Paraguay’s remote and hellishly sunny Chaco region. It played at Locarno 2021 and was shortlisted by Switzerland’s Oscar committee. It’s only competition is comedy “Charlotte”, about an aging Spanish actress visiting Paraguay, played by frequent Almodovar collaborator Angela Molina.

95. PERU- “The Best Families” So, I’m not sure if Claudia Llosa (Peru’s only Oscar nominee) and her Netflix thriller “Fever Dream” are going to compete for Peru. I believe Llosa is based in Spain and the film is a Spanish production but as writer-director, the film may count as Peruvian. In any case, I’m assuming it’s not eligible and that Peru will go with either ensemble family comedy “The Best Families”, rural human trafficking drama “Pampa”, which won some sort of an award from the Ministry of Culture, or Quechua-language drama “Samichay” (featuring the star of “Retablo”). Peru usually goes with the most high-profile chance, which would be “The Best Families”…and director Javier Fuentes-León was selected once before (for the brilliant “Undertow”). But it really could be any of these.

96. PHILIPPINES- TBD

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

NAMIBIA got an Oscar committee approved for the first time this year, and I suspect they may be interested in sending period drama "The White Line", about an interracial couple living under South African apartheid rule. It was scheduled to premiere in Namibia in November 2020 after spending a number of months on the international circuit. However, I understand it may have been postponed due to COVID. I'm not sure. In any case, it was at the Cannes Film Market and is in the main competition at FESPACO....So I think it will be the first-ever Namibian submission. Documentary "The Last Shelter" from MALI and "Madalena" from MACAU are much less likely.