FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (A-D)

So, I hadn't planned to do any predictions this year because the COVID situation made things so messy....Who knows when a film was released or "intended" to be released when cinemas are still restricted or closed (I live in Azerbaijan and cinemas have been completely closed for over a year) in many countries. 

 But I found some time so here's the first batch: 

1. Afghanistan- “The Dogs Didn’t Sleep Last Night” Even before the Taliban took over in a terrifying, heartbreaking power grab, consigning women and minorities to a reign of terror, Afghanistan’s Oscar prospects were bleak. Two years ago, their film was disqualified over technicalities regarding their Oscar selection committee and they failed to send a film last year. Their most promising option is “The Dogs Didn’t Sleep Last Night”, which won an award at Fajr in Iran and which is about a rural community dealing with the aftermath of war. 

2. Albania- “Love: Dashuri” Albania has sent five films in the past seven years, declining to send any of their eligible films the other two. This year, I expect they’ll send romantic drama “Love: Dashuri” about a man who returns to his rural town after separating from his wife. Acclaimed Russian director Alexander Sokurov has also made a film in Albania this year (“Gjirokastra”, named after a beautiful tourist town I visited earlier this year) but Albanian directors had a hissy fit when American director Joshua Marston was selected a few years back so I think they’ll go local. I would predict “My Lake”, the final film by the late Gjergj Xhuvani, but IMDB says it was released too early. 

3. Algeria- “Héliopolis” Algeria announced that period drama “Héliopolis” would represent the country last year. However, when they changed the release date and declined to do a VOD release, they withdrew the film and announced that it would represent Algeria in 2021. There haven’t any other serious challenges this year (except perhaps French co-production “Sisters”, starring Isabelle Adjani) so I assume they’ll stick with that plan. 

4. Argentina- “Karnawal” I really don’t have any idea what Argentina will send as two of their frontrunners, “Azor” (Berlinale) and the star-studded “Official Competition” (directed by an Argentinian duo and starring Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz) are minority co-productions with Switzerland and Spain respectively. With the success of Mexico’s (overrated) shortlisted “I’m No Longer Here” I’m predicting Argentina will select urban dancer drama “Karnawal” (Toronto 2020), about a young man drawn into a life of crime by his father. That seems more likely than indigenous drama “Lonely Rock”. Others are predicting Lucrecia Martel documentary “Chocobar” or Sundance slacker drama “The Dog Who Wouldn’t Be Quiet”, which hasn’t gotten the best notices. Things are hard when Ricardo Darin takes the year off! 

5. Armenia- “Should the Wind Drop” Most people were surprised when this Cannes 2020 drama and French co-production wasn’t selected last year, but it didn’t premiere in Armenia until 2021. This drama about a technocrat sent to decide whether to reopen an airport in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory would be a topical choice, since Armenia lost the territory in a war last year. 

6. Australia- “When Pomegranates Howl” English-speaking Australia failed to submit a film last year for the first time since 2011; I think they just didn’t have anything eligible. This year, I’m pretty sure they will send “When Pomegrantes Howl” by Iranian exile director Granaz Moussavi, who is now based in Australia. The film, set in Kabul, Afghanistan, is about a 9-year old boy working to support his family in a very dangerous environment. The two Aboriginal stories- “High Ground” and “The Furnace”- both seem to be mostly in English, although “High Ground” might be eligible. 

7. Austria- “Great Freedom” Although Austria has made some questionable decision recently, I’m confident they will select Cannes “Un Certain Regard” Jury Prize winner and Sarajevo Grand Prize winner “Great Freedom”. This is a decidedly odd LGBT drama about a gay man imprisoned for his sexuality after World War II, who begins a relationship with his cellmate, a convicted murderer, that has gotten very good reviews. But last year, Austria picked a film that absolutely nobody liked…so they could select something out of left-field. Oscar winner Stefan Ruzowitzky (“The Counterfeiters”, possibly the least acclaimed Foreign Film winner in recent history) has a new thriller (“Hinterland”; Locarno), while sci-fi drama “The Trouble Being Born” won Best Picture at this year’s Austrian Film Awards. Arash and Arman Riahi also have two new films- refugee drama “Where No One Knows Us”, and “Fox in a Hole”, set in a prison school, as does Ulrich Seidl (the “Paradise” trilogy) with “Wicked Games”. But I think “Great Freedom” should be safe. 

8. Azerbaijan- “The Island Within” Unfortunately, Azerbaijan (where I live) is one of the only countries that no longer sends films to the Oscars. They sent films most years between 2007 and 2017 (seven films in eleven years) and then seem to have given up. Like in most countries, cinemas have been closed since the pandemic started and they don’t have a well-developed VOD service here. It’s a shame because they had two strong festival options last year and I’m trying to see if there’s any way to convince them to return. “The Island Within”, a drama about a chess prodigy that won Best Director at Sarajevo 2020, would seem to be the frontrunner. 

9. Bangladesh- “Rehana” It’s a two-way race to represent Bangladesh between Cannes darling “Rehana” (aka “Rehana Maryam Noor”) and “The Grave”, a local film produced and released in both English-language and Bengali-language versions. “Rehana” reportedly got a standing ovation at Cannes (at least according to local press) and focuses on a successful woman professor who witnesses a sexual assault on campus. While Bangladesh has shied away from some controversial films in the past (“Sunday Morning”), their committee has also been happy to nominate films (“Bed of Roses”) when they actually got a domestic release. Gravedigger tale “The Grave” has the back of Impress Telefilms (whose films are selected almost every year) but may have been released too early according to new COVID dates. Anyway, the Cannes label should see “Rehana” get this easily. 

10. Belarus- “Kupala” Last year, Belarus was disqualified because “Persian Lessons” a very likely shortlist contender, was not a majority Belarusian film. And although I usually encourage AMPAS to be lenient, it really wasn’t. This year, the frontrunner is “Kupala” an expensive nationalist biopic about a renowned poet, although there are rumors that its release was delayed out of concerns over offending Russia, which is propping up the government after a fraudulent election last year. If this is the case, perhaps they’ll choose slacker thriller “Three Comrades”, which looks quite interesting or “Courage”, if the Oscar selection committee is affiliated with the political opposition. 

11. Belgium- “The Enemy” Belgium is a hard one to predict this year, but I think it will be “The Enemy”, a bilingual crime drama about a prominent nationalist politician (Jérémie Renier) accused of murdering his wife. Two films focus on the effect that health problems have on an otherwise normal couple- Joaquim Lafosse’s “The Restless” (Cannes), about bipolar disorder, and Jan Verheyen’s “Red Sandra” about a child with a fatal muscular disease. Also very possible: bullying drama “Playground” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard), gangland crime drama “Ferry” (Netflix) and horror-drama “Inexorable”. 

12. Bhutan- “Dema Tsho” Bhutan tried to submit a film last year for the first time in twenty years, arranging an Oscar qualifying release for adorable rural drama “Lunana”, but were disqualified on a technicality because AMPAS said the Bhutanese Ministry of Culture was not an approved Oscar selection committee. I think Bhutan will submit a film the next time they have an international release, but they don’t have any this year. For the sake of completion, I’ll nominate “Dema Tsho”, which won Best Picture at the 2021 Bhutan Film Awards. 

13. Bolivia- “Unay” Bolivia has three new films by top directors whose films have been sent before, but they all have problems- “El Gran Movimiento” (Venice Horizons) by Kiro Russo isn’t expected to be released until 2022. Paranoia horror flick “Blood Red Ox” (Guadalajara) by Rodrigo Bellott looks like it may have too much English. And “Pseudo” by Gory Patino is a moral dilemma thriller about a taxi driver being convinced to commit an act of terrorism. I think “Unay”, a drama about rural youth becoming engaged with local cultural traditions, will be selected, in part because it is supported by a number of politicians and the Ministry of Culture. 

14. Bosnia-Herzegovina- “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair” Though Bosnia has several options, it would be hard to see them not submitting a black comedy from Oscar winner Danis Tanovic (“No Man’s Land”). “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affairs” is one of the first international films to address the COVID pandemic, and follows a Croatian tourist whose visit sets off a series of unfortunate events. In a different year, dramas “The White Fortress” and “So She Doesn’t Live”- both of which premiered at Sarajevo 2021- would have had an excellent shot. 

15. Brazil- “Seven Prisoners” Brazil is one of the hardest countries to predict because (a)- they make a lot of movies and (b)- they make strange choices. Last year’s inscrutable documentary “Babenco” was probably their oddest and worst pick yet. Having said all that, I think that “Seven Prisoners” is the likely frontrunner with commercial prospects (a Netflix deal), starpower (Rodrigo Santoro) and festival love (premiering at Toronto 2021). The Brazilian Academy likes gritty urban dramas and this story of modern-day slavery fits the bill. The Brazilian Academy has shown they do not like quirky genre benders (turning down “Good Manners”, “Bacurau” and others) which makes me think that “The Pink Cloud”- a Sundance entry written before the coronavirus about one-night stand that turns permanent when a toxic cloud keeps everyone in their homes indefinitely- will not be selected. Family dramas “The First Death of Joana” (LGBT) and “Duetto” (Italian heritage) are also dark horses. Brazil’s usually releases a very long shortlist and you can expect to see movies like “Doutour Gama” (anti-slavery), “The Last Forest” (an Amazon forest doc), “Madalena”, “Medusa” (an absurdist feminist musical horror film that screened at Cannes) and “Romancing Brazil” (interracial love). 

16. Bulgaria- “German Lessons” This seems to be a two-race between “February” and “German Lessons”, both of which were well-received and won prizes at the 2021 Sofia International Film Festival. I’m personally hoping they choose “German Lessons” (which won the “2nd Place” Jury Prize in the main competition and the International Critics Award in the Bulgarian competition), a midlife crisis film about a 50-something man with a violent temper, preparing to emigrate to Germany. “February”, has been playing at festivals (mostly online due to COVID) for over a year. The dreamy film about a man at age 8, 18 and 80 won Best Bulgarian Film at Sofia 2021 and director Kamen Kalev has been selected before. I would also be predicting refugee drama “Fear” (Strah)…but I think it was eligible last year. Dark horse: “Borat” Oscar nominee Maria Bakalova co-stars in Cannes feminist drama “Women Do Cry”….Reviews haven’t been stellar, but will Bakalova’s star turn make them choose it? 

17. Burkina Faso- “Night Nursery” Burkina Faso tried to submit a film two years ago but was told they didn’t have an approved committee. If they got that done, they could send documentary “Night Nursery”, about an unusual day-care for the children of Burkinabe sex workers. It had screenings at Berlin. They also have "Les Trois Lascars" which is the only local film in the Main Competition of the FESPACO Film Festival in Ouaga. It's a raucous comedy about three friends who take a secret vacation away from their wives but who are reported dead on the flight they were supposed to take.   

18. Cambodia- “White Building” A Horizons slot at the 2021 Venice Film Festival is probably all that was needed to make “White Building” Cambodia’s submission. The feature debut of an up-and-coming short film director, the film is about a 20-year old facing the demolition of his home in the capital, amidst Phnom Penh’s modernization boom. 

19. Cameroon- “Bendskins" (Moto Taxi) Cameroon made history last year as the first country to benefit from Oscar’s new rule allowing films in Pidgin English or English Creole dialects to compete in this category. They’ve also signed deals with Netflix for four local films to appear on the streaming platform (including last year’s Oscar submission “The Fisherman’s Diary”). I'm not sure they'll return this year, but they do have "Bendskins" (Moto Taxi), a French-language film about motorcycle taxi drivers that will premiere at FESPACO 2021.

  

20. Canada- “Drunken Birds” Canada has close to a dozen possible contenders, although I think that there are really just three films with a realistic chance of being selected- “Le Club Vinland”, which has a director who has already made the Oscar shortlist once before, “Drunken Birds”, which has the best reviews, and “Ste. Anne”, which won Best Canadian Film at the Toronto Film Festival. To my surprise, Canada’s Oscar submission doesn’t match the TIFF Canadian Film winner very closely- only two of the past eight (eligible) winners or runners-up were selected. So, although I was originally defaulting to “Ste. Anne” (which premiered in Berlin), this “formally experimental piece” about a Native American (Metis) returning to her hometown in Manitoba, sounds both too small and not interesting enough to represent a country as important as Canada. “Le Club Vinland”, a period piece about a priest and his students conducting an archaeological dig in 1949, looks like the sort of film that Canada would send in the 1990s or 2000s, and indeed director Benoit Pilon got a surprise Oscar shortlist spot for the unassuming “Necessities of Life” in 2008. But reviews are far better for “Drunken Birds”, a drama in French and Spanish starring one of the leads from “Roma”. It’s a film noir escape movie about a drug cartel employee who falls in love with the cartel leader’s wife and helps her escape to Canada. Canada tends to choose quality films, with none of the scheming and politicking of other countries. A few other dark horses include French co-production “Aline”, a fictional biopic about Celine Dion, abstract animated film “Archipelago”, the soon-to-released “Bootlegger”, about an indigenous community, period drama “Maria Chapdelaine”, about a 16-year old seducing three men in turn-of-the-century Quebec, and “Underground”, about a mining explosion. My prediction for Canada’s Top Five: (1)- “Drunken Birds”, (2)- “Le Club Vinland”, (3)- “Ste. Anne”, (4)- “Maria Chapdelaine” and (5)- “Bootlegger”.

21. Chad- “Lingui” Chad has selected two films in the past, both directed by Mahamat-Saleh Haroun (but not since 2013). He had a new film premiere in competition at Cannes, though the controversial topic (abortion and Islam) may mean the answer is no. 

22. Chile- “My Brothers Dream Awake" With Chile’s “Big Three” working in English (Pablo Larrain) or taking the year off (Sebastian Lelio and Andres Wood), the race to represent Chile is wide open; these three guys have represented Chile seven of the past ten years. With few options so far this year, the Chilean submission is likely to be a new film like “My Brothers Dream Awake” (Locarno), “Behind the Rain” (directed by Raoul Ruiz’s widow) and “Regresar al Final” although a possible dark horse is children’s animated film “Nahuel & the Magic Book”. Chile won the Best Animated Short category a few years ago and they’ve selected an animated film once before in this category. Choosing the well-reviewed “Nahuel” would be a non-starter for International Film but could boost the film’s chances in the Animated Feature category (this strategy probably helped “The Mole Agent” snag a Doc nomination last year). “La Veronica” has gotten quite a lot of festival play, and “The Burning Gaze” focuses on a pivotal event in Chilean history but I think neither is well-reviewed enough. This one is a mystery for me….

23. China- “Cliff Walkers” (aka “Impasse”) Directors from the People’s Republic of China have gotten four Foreign Oscar nominations (two for China and two for Hong Kong) and three of these went to Zhang Yimou. China used to pick him all the time but they haven’t selected any of his films since 2011 (including the well-reviewed “Shadow”). Still, it would be foolish to bet against him when he makes a nationalist anti-Japanese action movie like “Cliff Walkers” (aka “Impasse”)….since China generally picks nationalist action movies lately. Unlike most of China’s recent submissions (including lowlight “Wolf Warrior 2”), “Cliff Walkers” has decent reviews and elements of espionage and crime that could play well…even if you aren’t a Chinese nationalist who hates the Japanese. However, I worry that China will instead select “Chinese Doctors”, a propaganda film about the Wuhan COVID outbreak, directed by talented HK filmmaker Andrew Lau, who made the “Infernal Affairs” trilogy. Based on what they’ve sent recently, this looks highly likely….although reviews have been poisonous. Also possible: “Nezha Reborn”, the blockbuster sequel to the kiddie cartoon they sent in 2019, “Tracing Her Shadow”, about benevolent Chinese adopting Japanese war orphans, and inspiring sports drama “On Your Mark 

24. Colombia- “Amparo” Like last year, Colombia has one of the weakest races in South America. They don’t have much to choose from, meaning that “Amparo”, a low-key drama about a mother trying to keep her son from getting drafted into the army during Colombia’s violent civil war, is probably going to be their pick. It played at Cannes Critics Week and got decent reviews. I know some people are predicting the new Apichatpong movie that was filmed in Colombia, but it’s just not a Colombian film. I’m simply not sure what else they even have? “A Rust” is a rural drama premiering at San Sebastian…But that seems unlikely. Let’s go with “Amparo”. 

25. Congo-Kinshasa- “Rumba Rules, New Generalogies” Congo-Kinshasa submitted a film once, way back in 1997 but they haven’t sent anything since, even when they’ve had strong contenders. They could consider sending the Lingala-language music documentary “Rumba Rules”, featuring musicians based in the capital. But I doubt it. 

26. Costa Rica- “Clara Sola” Costa Rica had two films at major festivals this year and Cannes entry “Clara Sola” (Director’s Fortnight) probably has the edge over San Sebastian entry “Aurora”, both by up-and-coming female Costa Rican directors. “Clara Sola”, about the sexual awakening of a village woman “tinged with magical realism” will probably be selected on the strength of the Cannes label alone. The competition, “Aurora”, is about a woman helping out a frightened, pregnant teenaged girl.

27. Cote d’Ivoire- “Ekoua” Cote d’Ivoire (formerly known as the Ivory Coast) made the shortlist last year for “Night of the Kings”. This year, the only local film I know of is “Ekoua”, a rare African anime feature about a 19-year priestess sent back in time. 

28. Croatia- “Murina” Will Croatia go for the veteran or the debutante? “Murina”, the feature debut of NYC-based Antoneta Kusijanovic, got warm reviews at Cannes Director’s Fortnight (winning the Camera d’Or for First Feature) and won the Audience Award at the Pula Film Festival among new Croatian films. Variety called it “superb” and coined the term “sunshine noir” for this tale of a teenage girl travelling to the beach with her domineering father and the rest of her family. Waiting in the wings is veteran Croatian director Zrinko Ogresta, a 62-year old who repped Croatia three times between 1995 and 2016 and his latest “A Blue Flower”, a character study of a middle-aged woman, which competed in Moscow and won Best Croatian Film and Best Croatian Director at the Pula Film Festival (defeating “Murina”). I’m pretty sure it will be one of these two, but last year Croatia picked a movie out of left field that nobody liked (except me…I found “Extracurricular” thrilling and charming) and that won no awards….So, I wouldn’t completely count out three other films by previously selected directors: dystopian thriller “The Dawn” (winner of four tech awards at Pula), a spare nationalistic profile of war veterans “Once We Were Good for You” (Best Actor, Screenplay at Pula) and “Tereza37”, about a married woman whose life changes when sometimes jokingly suggests she have an affair to get pregnant (Winner, Best Croatian Film and many other awards at the 2020 Pula Festival). There’s also school drama “The Staffroom” (Karlovy Vary). 

29. Cuba- “Mambo Man” Cuba has two strong options this year and despite sensitive subjects, both of them screened at the 2020 Havana Film Festival, showing that they were able to get past the government censors. I think the less controversial “Mambo Man” will be Cuba’s submission. Directed by a respected national musician who has won awards from the Communist government but who was also invited to join AMPAS in 2017, “Mambo Man” is about a farmer and musician who becomes involved in a scam in the “new” Cuba, where capitalism is starting to take hold. “The Last Rafter”, which would probably be a better choice, is about a young man who travels to Florida in a raft the same week that the United States changed its policy on Cuban immigration, rendering him illegal. Although it screened in Cuba, this might be too much to represent the country at the Oscars. “Mambo Man” is a safer choice. 

30. Czech Republic- “My Sunny Maad” The Czech Republic has a long tradition of animation and they selected an animated film (“Alois Nebel”) and partly animated film (“Lunacy”) in 2011 and 2006 respectively. With Afghanistan in the news, I’m predicting they make a bold and surprising choice and send “My Sunny Maad”, about a Czech woman who marries an Afghan man and moves to post (pre?)-Taliban Afghanistan to be with him. With few other choices, the Czechs may see this as an opportunity to position themselves in the Animated Film race. It’s probably more likely that they’ll choose sports biopic “Zatopek” or one of the two Czech fiction features premiering at Karlovy Vary- “Bird Atlas” (by Olmo Omerzu whose terrible “Winter Flies” was one of the worst Oscar submissions of 2018) or grim, family drama “Saving One Who Was Dead”. But I have a feeling “Maad” will be the one. 

31. Denmark- “Shadows In My Eyes” Denmark (population: 5.9 million) is the most successful country in the world right now in this category. In the past eleven years, they have been shortlisted eight times. Of those eight, six got Oscar nominations. Two won, including last year’s “Another Round”. So, Denmark is looking for a nomination every year. They typically release a three-film shortlist and there are five films widely expected to contend: “Flee” (Sundance), an animated documentary about an LGBT Afghan, “Margrethe I, Queen of the North”, a 15th century royal intrigue costume drama, Oscar winner Bille August’s latest old-fashioned period drama “The Pact”, World War II thriller “Shadows in My Eyes”, and “A Taste of Hunger”, about a couple running an elite, trendy restaurant. The finalists are almost certain to be “Flee”, “Queen Margrethe” and “Shadows in My Eyes”. Although “Flee” has the most buzz and incredible early reviews, I think its original, experimental format will doom it to third place. Between the two period dramas (neither of which has screened yet). “Shadows In My Eyes”, which has a Netflix deal, is my prediction. Its story of the accidental British bombing of a school is going to be much more accessible to American audiences than the palace intrigue between the Northern European kingdoms six hundred years ago…even if Trine Dyrholm is playing The Queen. 

32. Dominican Republic- “Hotel Coppelia” The Dominican Republic has four strong options this year. It would be foolish to count out Jose Maria Cabral, who has been selected three times since 2012 for three excellent films, and “Hotel Coppelia” has a U.S. hook, following the 1965 U.S. invasion of the island through the eyes of a group of prostitutes working at a brothel. But a big part of me wants to predict “Carajita”, a family drama about a rich girl and her family who retreat to a rural village, which is home to her nanny and her estranged daughter. It will premiere at San Sebastian which is a big thing for the DR. “More than Water” starring Frank Perozo (who stars in a lot of the Dominican submissions) as one of two marijuana dealing brothers, and “Liborio”, about a 20th century mystical prophet, could also factor into the decision.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Cyprus is the only EU country that has never sent a film to the Oscars...and they're one of the only film-producing nations in the world that has never participated. Cyprus produces some good films (I liked "Smuggling Hendrix") and their films regularly participate in Greek festivals so I'm not sure why they're absent. This year, they could easily send "Senior Citizen", about the life of a lonely old man, if they form a committee. It played at Thessaloniki and Cyprus Film days (where it won the Audience Award).  But they could also send drama "Patchwork" or black comedy "Ballad for a Pierced Heart". Botswana has teen pregnancy drama "Dithunya tsa Rona", though that seems highly unlikely.