FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (K-P)

And here's the next batch of 32: 

65. KYRGYZSTAN- “Shambala” I’m keeping my prediction the same as last year since their two frontrunners that debuted at festivals in 2020 didn’t open in the country until Summer 2021. Kyrgyzstan sends some of my favorite Oscar submissions year after year and many of them are rural dramas set in Kyrgyzstan’s beautiful countyside. “Shambala”, about a 7-year old boy and his family, is based on a beloved writer’s story and won the Best Film from the CIS/Baltic Republics at the Russian Nika Awards…only the second time a Kyrgyz film has won (they submitted the previous one, “Heavenly Nomadic”). B&W drama “The Road to Eden”, about a renowned writer living out his last days on a small pension who is faced with a serious financial dilemma.

66. LAOS- “Goodbye Mr. Wong” Laos has only submitted a film once and they opted not to send “The Long Walk” (which competed at the Venice Film Festival) last year. Their only option is “Goodbye Mr. Wong”, a French co-production about a woman faced with offers from two suitors.

67. LATVIA- “The Pit” I originally predicted animated doc "My Favorite War" but it was pointed out to me that this was eligible for Latvia (and the Best Animated Feature category) last year. So, I think Latvia has two main contenders, namely “The Pit” and “The Year Before the War”. “The Year Before the War” (Rotterdam), a weird B&W historical revisionist thriller set in 1913, looks like the sort of film Latvia usually sends but reviews haven’t been strong. “The Pit”, a coming-of-age movie about a troubled boy with violent tendencies who is sent to the countryside after injuring a local girl, has better reviews and looks set to be the Latvian submission. Laika Pakalnina’s re-telling of Snow White- “In the Mirror”- is an unlikely dark horse.

68. LEBANON- “Costa Brava” Lebanon has so many problems and yet they produce so many great films. Last year, “Broken Keys” was one of the best films that didn’t make the shortlist…and it was reportedly almost not selected because “All This Victory” had strong reviews as well. This year, Lebanon had three films at Berlinale, and one each at Cannes and Venice. While we can forget the LGBT documentary (“Miguel’s War”), the other four will all likely be in play. The clear favorite is “Costa Brava, Lebanon” (the Venice “Orizzonti Extra” sidebar) which not only stars Nadine Labaki (who co-stars in most Lebanese submissions) and Saleh Bakri (who co-stars in another favorite potential nominee, “Amira”), but also has the best reviews and the baitiest plot- a family who flees the city to try and create a utopian environment in the mountains. It’s said to be very Oscary….In second place, “A Sea Ahead” (Cannes), about a Lebanese woman returning home. The two Berlin premieres- “Death of a Virgin and the Sin of Not Living”, a coming-of-age dramedy, and “Memory Box”, a Canadian co-production about three characters linked by a forgotten box of letters and tapes, will have an uphill climb.

69. LESOTHO- Nothing. The little African kingdom of Lesotho sent a film for the first time last year.  For me, “This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection” was one of the biggest disappointments of my film year. I really wanted to love it. And I didn’t. Anyway, Lesotho doesn’t seem to have anything eligible. They probably won’t send another film until director Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese makes another film at home.

70. LITHUANIA- “The Runner” Lithuania has a wide-open race though they’ll probably be deciding between a pair of mysteries- “Runner” (Karlovy Vary), about a young woman searching for her mentally ill boyfriend after he disappears, and “Pilgrims” (Venice Horizons), about two young people trying to learn the truth about a gruesome “cold case” murder. Director Andrius Blazevicius swept the Lithuanian Film Awards a few years ago for “The Saint”, but his film wasn’t sent to the Oscars…so they may feel that he and “Runner” are overdue. Other options- upcoming releases “I Am Fine, Thanks” and “Butterfly’s Heart”, both family dramas, as well as documentary “Gentle Warriors”, about women soldiers (and directed by the young daughter of Audrius Stonys, one of Lithuania’s most acclaimed documentarians who repped Lithuania twice).

71. LUXEMBOURG- “The Summit of the Gods” Cannes animated film “The Summit of the Gods” is considered the favorite to represent little Luxembourg. It’s about a Japanese photographer who finds a camera that belongs to a mountaineer who disappeared on Mount Everest. Luxembourg has selected animated films before and may want to get it entered into the Animated Feature competition. But they’ve selected documentaries three times before so I’m curious if they’ll opt for “The Living Witnesses” (exploring racism and fascism through the eyes of young people, and comparing them to WWII) or the very topical “Lost Flowers”, about a man caught up amidst COVID restrictions, quarantine and sick family members when he visits his parents in Italy. I think this is actually a dead heat between these three films, although the Netflix acquisition and Cannes label of “Summit of the Gods” gives that film a razor-thin advantage.

72. MACEDONIA- "Sisterhood" Macedonia, now officially called “North” Macedonia due to Greek bullyinhg is almost certain to choose “Sisterhood” (Sarajevo), by far their most high-profile film of the year. It’s about the modern-day troubles of two adolescent girls, including sex, drinking and the affect that social media has on today’s youth. It faces two possible challenges from end-of-year releases (if they come out), notably ensemble comedy “Snow White Dies at the End” and human trafficking drama “The Day of the Woman”.

73. MALAWI- “Highbrow” Malawi sent a film once in 2018. The only local film release I know of in 2021 is “Highbrow”, a drama about a young upstart appointed to a senior government position, but it appears to be entirely in English.

74. MALAYSIA- "Frontliner" Countries around the world have showcased minority communities and languages in this category (even nationalist France chose a movie that wasn't in French). But Malaysia, whose most acclaimed films and festival entries are mostly made by its Chinese minority community,  has avoided sending any of them. Most Malay films are silly action-comedies or horror films (they sent a fairly highbrow horror film last year) so they don't often have many real contenders. I'm guessing they'll send Netflix drama "Frontliner", which is scheduled to premiere on September 30. It's a topical look at the health and care workers on the "frontlines" of fighting COVID-19. But they could also choose nationalist action flick "Air Force", romantic drama "Biko" or sci-fi drama "Antaramasa". Of course, they'd do better to select a Malaysian-Chinese film like "Barbarian Invasion", about an aging actress offered an action movie role, or "Story of a Southern Islet", about a wife seeking a magical cure to her husband's illness. 

75. MALTA- “Luzzu” Tiny Malta submitted a film once in 2014 and it is 100% certain that “Luzzu”, which won a Special Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival, will bring the country back for a second time. Like their first submission, this is a maritime drama, this time about about a fisherman who gets involved with illegal fishing activities to help support his family. I had the privilege of seeing this lovely and thought-provoking film in Malta while on vacation this month. It's much more engaging than you would think from the plot description....and I've heard it's just gotten a US distributor. Watch it! 

76. MAURITANIA- “The Perfumed Hill” (but probably nothing) Mauritania got a well-deserved Oscar nomination in 2015 for its first and only Oscar submission, “Timbuktu” and they’re unlikely to return until Abderrahmane Sissako makes a new movie….which he hasn’t done since. There are rumors that his latest film- “The Perfumed Hill”, filmed in Africa and China- will be released this year, but its more likely we’ll see it in 2022.

77. MEXICO- "Prayers for the Stolen" I haven't researched Mexico yet but this is the favorite and it will almost certainly be my prediction. 

78. MOLDOVA- “Memory” Moldova submitted films two years in a row (2013/2014) but then never again.  Director Igor Cobileanski, whose “Unsaved” was sent in 2014, has a new film in production (“Coma”) that could be the next Moldovan submission (if they reform a committee). This year, the only film I know about is “Memory”, about a young couple who wake up with amnesia, living in a city and surrounded by people that know them but who they cannot remember.

79. MONGOLIA- “The Woman” Confusion over release dates makes Mongolia difficult. The Ulaanbaatar Film Festival took place November and included four new Mongolian films, including “Black Milk”, which premiere at the Berlin Film Festival in 2020, “Bedridden” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “The Woman”. I have no idea which of these were eligible last year and which were this year. “Black Milk” probably premiered so long ago that they won’t consider it. “Bedridden”, about an egotistical writer who decides he will remain in bed for the purpose of his writing, is clearly the more high-profile of the other two, but the Mongolian Academy (rightfully) likes to showcase the country’s beautiful national vistas and nomadic culture. A movie about staying in bed won’t do that, so I predict “The Woman”, about three women- a woman, her mother-in-law and her daughter- living in a remote mountainous region…and the man who keeps arriving to help the women and convince them to move to a town.

80. MONTENEGRO- “Elegy of Laurel” Tiny Montenegro had two films at major regional festivals, which is pretty good for them. “After the Winter” competed at Karlovy Vary and is about five small town friends who find their lives upended by the collapse of Yugoslavia. But it’s more likely they’ll choose “Elegy of Laurel”, a surrealist fantasy-drama that competed at Sarajevo, about a middle-aged couple who visit a forest.

81. MOROCCO- So, I got this one wrong. I know Morocco always chooses Nabyl Ayouch (four times between 1998-2017) but “Casablanca Beats”, which looks like a cross between “Gully Boy” and “Dangerous Minds”, is about rap music and doesn’t have the best reviews….So, I thought the Moroccan Academy would give someone else a chance. But they didn’t. I hadn’t researched Morocco yet and their release dates are always confusing (even before COVID, there is often a year-long gap between Moroccan films debuting at festivals and cinemas) but I thought “Autumn of Apple Trees”, “Zanka Contact” and anthology “Chronicles of Her” might be considered.

82. MOZAMBIQUE- “The Night Still Smells of Gunpowder” (but probably nothing) Mozambique submitted a film just once in 2017. Documentarian Inadelso Cossa, an AMPAS member, just won a “Final Cut” grant at Venice for post-production on his new feature-length documentary “The Night Still Smells of Gunpowder”, about the lives of people who survived the country’s devastating civil war of the 1980s. But it seems doubtful it will be screened in time.

83. NAMIBIA- New committee! SEE POSSIBLE DEBUTS

84. NEPAL- “Crushed Wings” Like many countries around the world, Nepalese cinemas have been closed nearly two years due to COVID, and they really don’t have much that seems to have been released. Add to that that the Nepalese Academy shortlisted two films last year and submitted neither, and that none of the country’s leading directors have anything new….so it seems likely that Nepal will be absent. Among their options if they do choose to submit are a few issue-based dramas (“Crushed Wings”, about female circumcision and “Paaila”, about dyslexia”) and a new spy thriller (“Ek”) pioneering a digital release in Nepal. For the sake of completion, I’ll go with “Crushed Wings”.

85. NETHERLANDS- "The Forgotten Battle" The Netherlands announced a shortlist of 14 films of mostly well-regarded but relatively unknown films. "The Forgotten Battle" checks a lot of boxes. Made by a director with Hollywood experience and written by Oscar nominee Paula van der Oest ("Zus & Zo"), it's an expensive (14 million euro) WWII epic with U.S. distribution (Netflix, October 21st), some relatively recognizable faces (Tom Felton) and some very good reviews. The Netherlands hasn't been nominated since 2003 and they are likely to want to play it safe. Their last nominee was "Twin Sisters" and director Ben Sombogaart has "My Best Friend Anne Frank"...but this is a small, low-budget effort that likely would get lost in the Oscar shuffle. If there is a film that can displace "Battle", it's more likely to be one of two thrillers- "The Judgement", a "based on a true story" film about a journalist battling political intrigue to uncover the truth about a murder, or Persian-language "Mitra", a thriller about a woman seeking revenge against a woman who betrayed her daughter and caused her to be executed in Iran.  The other films on the list include seven fiction features- "Anne+", "Do Not Hesitate", "The East", "Family Fox on Expedition", "I Don't Wanna Dance", "Meskina", "Ten Songs for Charity", and three documentaries "A Man and a Camera", "Shadow Game" (which will round out the Top 5) and "Silence of the Tides". 

86. NEW ZEALAND- “Cousins” Obviously New Zealand produces most of their films in English, but it’s possible that drama “Cousins” may have enough Maori to compete….the trailer is about 50-50 so I’m not sure. It’s about three young Maori cousins whose lives are changed when one of them is removed from their tight-knit Maori community and sent to an English-speaking orphanage. The girls are reunited decades later, showcasing how the different environments and opportunities have shaped their lives for better and for worse.

87. NICARAGUA- “Ernesto on Earth” Nicaragua has only sent one film in the past thirty years and I ‘m sure they won’t send anything this year. Technically, I suppose they could send “Ernesto on Earth”, a documentary about a revolutionary priest.

88. NIGER- “Zinder” According to the UN Human Development Index, Niger is the least developed country in the world. They unexpectedly sent a film once in 2018 and technically could send “Zinder”, a fascinating documentary exploring poverty, gangs and violence in the country’s marginalized and forgotten third-largest city.

89. NIGERIA- "Eyimofe" (This is My Desire) Nigerian drama "Eyimofe" was nominated for Best First Feature at the Berlin Film Festival 2020, a rare honor for a Nigerian film. COVID-related delays meant that the film finally debuted at home in April 2021. Filmed in Nigerian "Pidgin" English, I'm pretty sure that this will be the first Nigerian film to benefit from last year's new rule. The film is about a couple desperate to move abroad (a factory worker husband a hairdresser wife) who encounter various trials and tribulations on their way to achieving what they believe to be their life's dream. It's main competition is quirky horror-fantasy anthology "Juju Stories" (also in Nigerian "Pidgin") featuring three modern-day stories based on Nigerian folklore. That one sounds a lot more interesting but this should be an easy win for "Eyimofe", which has garnered very positive reviews overall and a coveted slot in the main competition of the FESPACO Film Festival.

90. NORWAY- “The Worst Person in the World” People are already talking about Cannes Best Actress winner “The Worst Person in the World” as one of the leading threats for an Oscar nomination, so this is almost certainly going to be the Norwegian submission. It’s about four years in the life of Norwegian millennial (which doesn’t sound like it will appeal to older AMPAS voters….but we’ll see!) So, the competition is really about which two of the other five contenders will get named on the Norwegian shortlist- (1) "The Battle for Narvik", an anti-Nazi historical drama that has just been added to the 2021 release schedule, (2) inspiring anti-terrorism documentary “Generation Utoya”, (3)- supernatural thriller, “The Innocents” (Cannes, UCR), (4) well-reviewed slacker dramedy “Ninjababy” (Berlin 14+), and (5)  Peter Naess’ tragicomedy “Nothing to Laugh About”. Anti-capitalist drama “Gritt” and disaster action flick “North Sea” could also appear but I think there’s too much competition for them. So, which two will join “The Worst Person in the World” on the shortlist? Probably “Nothing to Laugh About” (Naess got an Oscar nod for “Elling”), about a comedian with a terminal illness, and “Generation Utoya”, about the survivors of the 2011 right-wing terrorist attack in Utoya, Norway, with "Narvik" a potential spoiler. 

91. PAKISTAN- “Kamli” Poor Pakistan was starting to see a cinematic revival in the 2010s and last year’s submission, “Circus of Life” was one of the two best Oscar submissions out of the 80 I saw. The fact that it wasn’t nominated or even shortlisted showed that there is something wrong with the committee. Maybe after a year of living in Pakistan, it resonated more for me. In any case, coronavirus has caused innumerable problems. Cinemas have been closed for over a year and streaming isn’t well-developed so most of their releases have been sitting on the shelf. There are rumors that cinemas may be reopened this fall before the December 31^st cut-off date…so it all depends on what (if anything) is released. It’s rare that countries send the same director two years in a row, but that could happen with Sarmad Khoosat’s “Kamli”, which is described as a “tragic love story.” Originally scheduled for Summer 2020, it’s hoping for a 2021 release and I read somewhere it did get an experimental YouTube release. So, maybe it’s eligible? Other options include “The Legend of Maula Jatt”, a much-anticipated all-star remake of a 1970s series of blockbuster films (but probably too light to be selected), historical drama “Khel Khel Mein”, feminist documentary “This Stained Dawn”, or arthouse drama “The Window”, about the life of an abused child bride.

92. PALESTINE- “Huda’s Salon” Palestine has one of the year’s easiest choice and will surely select “feminist thriller” Huda’s Salon (Toronto) about a young mother who becomes a victim of a terrible blackmail attempt. Director Hany Abu-Assad has gotten two nominations for Palestine out of three tries (“Paradise Now” and “Omar”) and the film already has a U.S. distributor. Dark horse: If Egypt selects “Feathers”, then perhaps Palestine will be tempted to select Mohamed Diab’s “Amira” (Venice) which was made and set in the occupied Palestinian territories.

93. PANAMA- “Salta” Panama was supposed to have eight features (four fiction and four documentaries) released in 2021 but that looks increasingly unlikely due to continued uncertainty related to COVID. If it’s released, they’re guaranteed to send “Plaza Catedral”, a much-anticipated film by Abner Benaim about a divorced woman who helps a local youth after the death of her own son. The actor playing the youth was tragically killed earlier this year and Benaim has been submitted twice before. But I’m skeptical it will be screened before December so I’m guessing “Salta”, a story about modern love and romance in Panama. Less likely: wedding comedy “Something Blue” was the first local film released after COVID; “Tito, Margot y yo” is a documentary about a Panamian diplomat who married a prima ballerina.

94. PARAGUAY- “Nothing But the Sun” Paraguay sent a documentary by Arami Ullon as their first-ever Oscar submission in 2015. This year, they are likely to send her latest film “Nothing but the Sun”, a documentary about the Ayoreo people who live in Paraguay’s remote and hellishly sunny Chaco region. It played at Locarno 2021 and was shortlisted by Switzerland’s Oscar committee. It’s only competition is comedy “Charlotte”, about an aging Spanish actress visiting Paraguay, played by frequent Almodovar collaborator Angela Molina.

95. PERU- “The Best Families” So, I’m not sure if Claudia Llosa (Peru’s only Oscar nominee) and her Netflix thriller “Fever Dream” are going to compete for Peru. I believe Llosa is based in Spain and the film is a Spanish production but as writer-director, the film may count as Peruvian. In any case, I’m assuming it’s not eligible and that Peru will go with either ensemble family comedy “The Best Families”, rural human trafficking drama “Pampa”, which won some sort of an award from the Ministry of Culture, or Quechua-language drama “Samichay” (featuring the star of “Retablo”). Peru usually goes with the most high-profile chance, which would be “The Best Families”…and director Javier Fuentes-León was selected once before (for the brilliant “Undertow”). But it really could be any of these.

96. PHILIPPINES- TBD

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

NAMIBIA got an Oscar committee approved for the first time this year, and I suspect they may be interested in sending period drama "The White Line", about an interracial couple living under South African apartheid rule. It was scheduled to premiere in Namibia in November 2020 after spending a number of months on the international circuit. However, I understand it may have been postponed due to COVID. I'm not sure. In any case, it was at the Cannes Film Market and is in the main competition at FESPACO....So I think it will be the first-ever Namibian submission. Documentary "The Last Shelter" from MALI and "Madalena" from MACAU are much less likely.