FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (P-Z)

And here's the final batch of 32:  

 

Poland- “Leave No Traces” So, Poland announced early before I had the chance to make a prediction. Before they announced, they selected a four-film shortlist (all retro films set in the 80s and 90s). Hostage drama “Prime Time” got a berth at Sundance and had by far the highest profile but it also had the weakest reviews of the four. Action-comedy “Najmro” (aka “The Getaway King”) had arguably the best reviews…but it seemed very “local”, and the dour Polish Academy always goes with serious films. So, those two seemed unlikely. Most people felt the race was between LGBT-themed crime drama “Hyacinth”, which had the backing of Netflix, and “Leave No Traces” (Venice), about a young man in Communist-era Poland who witnesses a murder and becomes a wanted man as a result. “Hyacinth” had better reviews but the LGBT theme likely would have made some uncomfortable; “Leave No Traces” was not a surprise.

Portugal- “Shadow” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions without getting nominated (or even shortlisted!) and that trend looks set to continue. The shortlist should be announced soon but I expect the three main candidates will be Miguel Gomes’ weird COVID docudrama “The Tsugua Diaries” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight), missing child drama “Shadow” (Shanghai) and the upcoming drama “The Sound That Goes Down to Earth”, about a woman waiting for her husband to return from war in Angola. A possible spoiler is “The Metamorphosis of Birds” (Berlinale 2020); I can’t tell if it’s eligible or not. Last year, the Portuguese Academy chose a straightforward family drama with mainstream appeal (“Listen”) over the arthouse disaster favorite “Vitalina Verde”. When “Listen” was disqualified, “Vitalina” (the worst of the 80 films I saw last year despite incomprehensible acclaim from certain pretentious critics) still didn’t make the finals….So, even though “Tsugua” is probably going to be selected, I’m predicting a surprise for the more mainstream “Shadow”. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking?

Puerto Rico- “Perfume de gardenias” Puerto Rico was unfairly and unceremoniously disinvited from the International Oscar competition in 2010, after submitting films regularly since 1986, netting one Oscar nomination. The excuse was that they were a U.S. territory. Greenland, a Danish territory, was welcomed to enter films the same year, and Hong Kong continues to be invited (as they should be). If they were allowed to send a film, it would almost certainly be “Perfume de gardenias” (The Scent of Gardenias), a gentle drama about a group of elderly women who decide to stage elaborate, “custom-designed” funerals.

Romania- “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn” Romania won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Film Festival (for the third time in nine years) for “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”, a comedy-drama about a leaked sex tape that threatens to ruin a woman’s life. While not exactly Oscar’s traditional cup of tea, the film has gotten good reviews and Radu Jude has been selected twice in 2015 so the Romanian Academy likes him. Romania usually picks the obvious choice, so it’s pretty sure to get in. That’s bad news for Radu Muntean (“Intregalde”; Cannes Director’s Fortnight/Toronto) who almost seems to come close but never gets picked. Other options: “Immaculate” (Venice),  “Unidentified” (Warsaw), and “Otto the Barbarian”, a gritty youth drama which won Best Romanian film (beating “Loony Porn” and “Intregalde”) at the Transylvania International Film Festival.

Russia- “A Siege Diary” In the past ten years, Russia has sent five arthouse dramas that played at Cannes or Venice….all of them got nominated or shortlisted. They also sent four nationalist battle films about WWII. None of them advanced. So, following that logic, the four candidates should be “Petrov’s Flu” (Cannes, Main Competition), “Unclenching the Fist” (Winner, Cannes UCR), “House Arrest” (Cannes, UCR) and “Captain Volkonogov Escaped” (Venice, Main Competition). Frontrunner “Petrov’s Flu” probably won’t be selected because of the director’s political activities (he was banned from leaving Russia to attend Cannes because he’s on probation for political crimes). “House Arrest” is by a previously selected director but its story about using social media to combat political corruption also seems unlikely to be picked. But they could easily select “Volkonogov”, a thriller set amidst the Stalinist purges. “Unclenching the Fist”, a drama in Ossetian, as well as “Scarecrow” in Yakut, both about life in Russia’s remote ethnic republics, have gotten strong notices but they’re both much “smaller” and more female-centered than the Russian Academy usually goes. I think Russia will select “A Siege Diary”, about a woman on a journey to see her father one final time during WWII, which has swept a number of Russian film awards this year and whose topic is likely to please those who want a WWII film and those who want an intimate arthouse film. It was nominated for Best Picture at Russia’s Oscars (the Nikas) where it lost to “Dear Comrades”, won at Russia’s Golden Globes (the Golden Eagles) where it beat “Dear Comrades”, as well as the 2020 Moscow Film Festival. One final dark horse is chess drama “Champion of the World”, which is set to be released at the end of the year. My predictions for the Top 5: “Siege”, “Volkonogov”, “Champion”, “Unclenching the Fist” and “Petrov”.  

Saudi Arabia- “Tambour of Retribution” Saudi Arabia has gone from banning cinemas to producing some of this competition’s most interesting films year after year. This year they have two great choices. Frontrunner “The Tambour of Retribution” is a period drama based on a forbidden romance between the son of an executioner and the daughter of a traditional musician. It won Best Actor in Cairo and can be seen on Netflix. But the Saudis- who used to produce barely one feature film per years- also had two new films debuting at the Red Sea Film Festival this summer. Family drama “40 Years and One Night” looks like a really interesting look at Saudi family dynamics that could certainly be chosen, while mystery “Carnaval City” is unlikely to be compete here.

Senegal- “Saloum” Horror-thriller “Saloum” premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it’s probably Senegal’s only realistic choice. It’s gotten quite good reviews for its weird story of criminals vs. monsters in remote regions of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. It's one ofthe films I'm most excited to see .

Serbia- “Celts” So, Serbia selected “Oasis”…..But they announced while I was in the middle of my predictions and had that listed with Karlovy Vary winner “As Far As I Can Walk” as “unlikely but possible”. The Serbs tend to choose rousing, nationalist tales or stories about proud but struggling Serbian families, and these two (“Oasis”, a small film about a center for the intellectually disabled, and “As Far As I Can Walk”, about African refugees) don’t fit that profile. I was probably going to pick “Bad Blood”, a drama about Serbs struggling against the Ottoman Empire, or “Celts” (which has played at a ton of festivals and won Best Director at Sarajevo), about Serbia struggling during the early days of the fall of Yugoslavia.

Singapore- “Precious is the Night” Singapore has had a pretty quiet film year and the only really serious contender is “Precious is the Night”, a moody Chinese-language thriller set in 1960s Singapore that has been compared to the style of Wong Kar-Wai. It would be a shoo-in, although the director is Taiwanese and not Singaporean. Crime drama “Malam” (in Malay) and “Singapore Vignettes” (about the country’s Indian expat community) are less likely.

Slovakia- “The Man with Hare Ears” Director Martin Sulik has made seven fiction features since Slovakia gained independence in 1993, and Slovakia has sent his films seven times. So, it would be foolish to count out his eighth- absurdist comedy “The Man with Hare Ears”, about a 60-year old man with a young pregnant wife and his sudden development of huge rabbit (hare) ears. It was originally scheduled to be released in 2020 but due to COVID delays, it was released in 2021 and is eligible this year. The truth is that they don’t have much else. For the first time since I can remember there were no majority Slovak fiction features at Karlovy Vary (which is what they usually choose) though they did have “At Full Throttle”, a lively documentary about a 50-something miner who wants to be a race-car driver. That’s the main competition. In 3^rd place: ”107 Mothers” (Venice, Best Screenplay), about a Ukrainian women’s prison.

Slovenia- “Sanremo” Slovenia doesn’t have much this year but they do have “Sanremo”, a geriatric romance about two elderly folks getting to know each other in a nursing home. Other options include “Deadlock” (Belgrade; Vinko Moderndorfer has repped Slovenia before), “Inventory” (San Sebastian) and “Once Were Humans”.  UPDATE: Slovenia chose “Sanremo”. I saw the film today and it's devastatingly sad, while maintaining a wry sense of humor. The main story is well-done, but it peters out before the end. 

South Africa- “Sons of the Sea” Thriller “Sons of the Sea” won Best South African Film at the Durban International Film Festival, and looks like the sort of gritty drama that the South African Academy loves to send. According to the trailer, it’s mostly in Afrikaans but there is quite a bit of English which could affect its eligibility. It’s about black market seafood just like Malta’s Luzzu”….Who knew that could be such an exciting topic?  In this film, a young man finds a dead body next to a particularly valuable haul. Among their other options- 2^nd place- “Pusha Pressa Phanda” (Durban), a spare 61-minute drama in Zulu about 24 hours in the life of an impoverished young girl tasked with getting medicine and sanitary pads for her sister, 3^rd place- “Hotel on the Koppies”, a drama in four languages about different people stuck in place during COVID lockdown, and 4^th  place- “Good Madam” (Toronto), a Xhosa-language horror-thriller about a Xhosa woman and her mother taking care of a catalonic, elderly white woman.

Spain- “The Good Boss” As usual, Spain has announced a shortlist of three films despite a very competitive year. Nearly twenty years ago (in 2002), the Spanish Academy made a controversial decision selecting Fernando Leon’s “Mondays in the Sun” (starring Javier Bardem) over Pedro Almodovar’s “Talk to Her”. This year, we have a rematch between Fernando Leon’s “The Good Boss” (starring Javier Bardem) and Pedro Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” (Venice). In both years, Almodovar was the favorite due to his previous Oscar wins and higher international profile. So, what will Spain do? It will be down to the wire but “The Good Boss”, a comedy about the office intrigue caused by a dismissed employee, has better reviews than “Mondays in the Sun” and is said to be Leon’s best film yet. “Parallel Mothers” has gotten good reviews…but not as good as Almodovar usually gets. While Almodovar and star Penelope Cruz are huge, Javier Bardem is now a much more recognizable star than he was in 2002…and the Spanish Academy has a history of going with their gut. So, I think “The Good Boss” will win this. As in 2002, the third film- “Mediterraneo”, starring Sergi Lopez- is probably not a realistic choice. Iciar Bollain’s “Maixabel”, widely considered a favorite for the 3-film shortlist and the Spanish nomination, is already out of luck.

Sri Lanka- “Bulletproof Children” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009 and there’s no indication they’ll rejoin this year. Like most South Asian countries, COVID has had a terrible impact on local cinema but if they chose a film, I’d predict it would be “Bulletproof Children”, about a possible terrorist attack targeting a cricket match. It got a surprising nomination at China’s Golden Rooster Awards. They could also choose “Colombo”, an urban drama, or “Ayu”, about a pregnant woman who discovers a deadly secret after an automobile accident.

Sudan- “Goodbye Julia” Sudan submitted a film for the first time last year and much was made of the fact that Sudan- one of Africa’s largest countries- had only produced a handful of films since independence in 1956. I don’t think they have anything eligible but they do have a potential contender in post-production, namely “Goodbye Julia”, about a Sudanese Arab woman devastated at causing the death of a South Sudanese man, who gives his unknowing wife a job as a housemaid. It’s won several “in-production” awards and will likely be Sudan’s second submission whenever it’s released.

Suriname- Nothing. Dutch-speaking Suriname (pop: 600,000) sent a film for the first time last year. I’m fairly certain they don’t have anything eligible this year.

Sweden- “Sabaya” Sweden traditionally announces a three-film shortlist but the Nordic country has had a fairly quiet film year and the three films seem pretty obvious- (1)- “The Emigrants”, the upcoming remake of the beloved 1971 film (nominated for Best Foreign Film and Best Picture) about Swedish immigrants to the United States, (2)- “Sabaya” (Sundance), a documentary in Arabic and Kurdish about the rescue of ISIS sex slaves in Syria, and (3)- “Tigers”, a sports drama about a young Swedish footballer who joins AC Milan. “Tigers” won Best Nordic Film at Sweden’s Goteborg Film Festival and was the Swedish nominee for the 2021 Nordic Film Prize…but it’s clearly out of its league against the other two heavy-hitters. Nobody has seen the new “The Emigrants” (it’s scheduled to premiere in December) but “Sabaya” has been getting rave reviews for its incredibly brave story. It will be very, very close but I think the recent nominations for “Honeyland” and “Collective” (and the Doc nomination for the shortlisted “Mole Agent”) will encourage Sweden to select “Sabaya”, which already has US distribution and could be a contender for Documentary as well. Swedish-helmed, Polish-language drama “Sweat”, Costa Rican co-production “Clara Sola”, and documentary “The Scars of Ali Boulala” could be surprise picks for the shortlist….but they would never be selected.

Switzerland- “Neighbours” This is another one that I’ve already gotten wrong. Switzerland announced a nine-film shortlist including seven fiction features and two documentaries. The Swiss tend to make a lot of co-productions and the films were a multi-lingual bunch with four in national languages (three in German and one in French), four set overseas in Argentina, Paraguay, Russia and Syrian Kurdistan, and one about a Ukrainian in Switzerland.  When Switzerland announced, I had just divided the films into the three frontrunners- “Girl & the Spider” (Berlin) “Monte Verita” (the only Swiss film in competition at Locarno) and the Kurdish drama “Neighbours” (Shanghai), the three dark horses (“Azor”, “Caged Birds” and “Olga”) and the three also-rans (“The Fam”, “Nothing But the Sun” and “Ostrov, The Lost Island”). I was leaning towards picking “Neighbours” when Switzerland made their announcement. In the end, it was gymnastics drama “Olga” (Cannes) that was selected.

Syria- “Republic of Silence” A pro-opposition group from war-torn Syria formed an Oscar committee once in 2017, sending a documentary. I’m not sure if the committee is still active, but they had two films appear at Venice sidebars this year, namely documentary “Republic of Silence” and drama “The Stranger”. While “Republic of Silence”, a non-linear 3-hour doc filmed over the course of twelve years, might be an unconventional choice, it’s probably what the committee in exile would choose. But they probably will skip.

Taiwan- “The Falls” It’s rare that a director represents his country two years in a row but Chung Mong-hong- whose “A Sun” made the shortlist last year and probably competed with France and Norway for sixth place- is likely to achieve that feat with COVID drama “The Falls”, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Following a mother and daughter whose relationship becomes ever more tense as they live together in a luxurious Taipei apartment, it isn’t as universally beloved as “Sun” but is probably the best Taiwanese film of the year. Arthouse director Tsai Ming-liang was chosen twice in the 2000s and his “Days” may or may not be eligible (I’m not sure) but it won a Teddy at Berlinale 2020 so that’s another possibility. Netflix mystery “The Soul”, about two detectives trying to solve the murder of a man working on a cure for cancer, is also a strong possibility, especially if they want to help publicize a newer director. Rounding out the Top Five options are Zero Chou’s lesbian noir “Wrath of Desire” and comedy-drama “Man in Love”…but those two seem rather unlikely. Taiwan will announce its nominations for the Golden Horse Film Awards on October 5^th which should make things clearer.

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Tajikistan- “Provincial Dreamers” Tajikistan hasn’t submitted a film since 2005 (which was disqualified). They’re unlikely to enter this year but they do have a new film called “Provincial Dreamers”, a comedy about a rural couple trying to marry off their daughter. Tajikistan makes very few films but they’ve produced some real gems over the years including their two Oscar submissions (“Luna Papa” and “Sex and Philosophy”) as well as “Angel on the Right” and “True Noon”.

Tanzania- “Binti” Tanzania submitted a film once in 2001 (“Maangamizi”) and when I visited the country in July, there were posters celebrating the film’s 20^th anniversary. However, Tanzania never sent a film again. The winner of this year’s Zanzibar International Film Festival was “Binti”, a female-driven film about the lives of four Tanzanian women living in the capital city, and Tanzania could rejoin the competition by sending it. The Tanzanian film in competition at FESPACO 2021 (“Farewell Amor”) is set in the United States and appears to be mostly in English.

Thailand- “One for the Road” Thailand is probably hoping that Colombia sends Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s (mostly Spanish-language) “Memoria”, which won a Cannes Jury Prize in July. It’s a strange thriller starring Tilda Swinton about a woman who starts hearing mysterious noises. I’m not a Apichatpong fan….and neither is the Thai Academy. They picked him once when he somehow won the Cannes Palme d’Or, but his style is not really appreciated in Thailand, although it does seem to have enough Thai crew to be eligible. Assuming they snub “Memoria”, they have three interesting options: (1)- “Anatomy of Time” (Venice Horizons), a weird Buddhist meditation on life,  (2)- “The Medium”, by the well-regarded director of “Shutter”, it’s a Korean horror co-production that won the Bucheon Fantasy Film Festival (one of the best-organized fests I have ever attended), and (3)- “One for the Road” (Sundance), by a previously selected director, a tearjerker about two friends on a final road trip around Thailand before one dies of cancer. Some people are also mentioning “Edge of Daybreak” but that’s too much of a political hot potato.  Thailand is less impressed by film festivals than most countries and has regularly chosen rom-coms, horror films and thriller that other countries won’t touch. They also like films that showcase Thailand’s beauty and culture. I think road movie “On the Road” will be the national choice, not least because it has already played and gotten decent reviews in the USA at Sundance. “The Medium” won’t play well with AMPAS, but that’s the likely runner-up (and the film I’m most interested in seeing).

Tunisia- “Streams” Tunisia got a surprise (but well-deserved) first International Oscar nomination last year for Kaouther Ben-Ania’s “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (although her earlier “Beauty and the Dogs” was even better). They don’t have too much to choose from during this COVID year but they do have “Streams” (Locarno) about a woman recently released from prison who seeks to reconnect with her son. It looks very good. If that’s not released in time, they could choose Leyla Bouzid’s cross-cultural Islamic love story “A Tale of Love and Desire” (Cannes, International Critics Week). Though it’s a majority French production, it represented Tunisia at FESPACO. In third place: “Black Medusa” (Rotterdam) a thriller about an outwardly shy woman who becomes a vamp in the evenings.

Turkey- "Paper Lives" So, Turkey usually chooses films from Nuri Bilge Ceylan and Semih Kaplanoglu whenever they're eligible. I'm not a big fan of either director (their films are too long and too slow....) but everyone is expecting Turkey's submission will be "Commitment: Hasan", the second in Kaplanoglu's new trilogy. "Commitment: Asli" was selected two years ago (I know I fell asleep at least once) despite tepid reviews and "Hasan" could be chosen as well especially since it played at Cannes Un Certain Regard. That's a shame because Turkey produces a lot of better films...They just don't tend to send them to the Oscars. There are three other options that I really think Turkey could consider. "Paper Lives" is a Netflix release (so was last year's submission) by a relatively unheralded director named Can Ulkay most notable for being selected in 2017 for a film nobody had every heard of. "Paper Lives" about life on the mean streets of Istanbul is both better reviewed (though better with audiences more than critics) and more well-known. "Ghosts", about the lives of four characters on an average day in Istanbul is the critical favorite, having won Best Picture in Antalya, Best International Film from the Online Film Critics Society, and  the Critics Week Grand Prize at Venice 2020. "Anatolian Leopard", about zoo employees trying to hide the death of a prized animal, just won a major award at Toronto despite only slightly above-average reviews. Other dark horses: moral dilemma drama "Between Two Dawns" (San Sebastian) and the religious historical drama "Drunk on Love". Turkey's only film at a major festival- Kurdish boarding school drama "Brother's Keeper" (Berlin)- is probably the most deserving, but Turkey isn't likely to send a film in Kurdish. Turkey also makes strange decisions but I'm predicting "Paper Lives". 

Ukraine- “Why I’m Alive” Ukraine announced a five-film shortlist that was surprising only by the exclusion of Sergey Loznitsa’s new documentary “Babi Yar. Context” (perhaps it will be eligible next year?) This will be a battle between festival prestige and respect for age and experience. “Reflection”, one of several films about the war in eastern Ukraine, competed in Venice and Toronto and is the arthouse choice. It’s a grueling and difficult watch about a surgeon taken hostage by Russian forces, and Variety described it as “oblique, challenging and, if you’re up for it, one of the most intellectually provocative and rewarding films.” But director Valentyn Vasyanovych has been selected twice in the past four years for “difficult” films (which I didn’t like) and the Ukrainians may want to spread the wealth. “Why I’m Alive” is an expensive period piece with national funding made by an 83-year old director who came out of retirement to make the film. It’s a drama about a Jewish-Christian romance in a small Soviet Ukrainian town in the days leading up to WWII. The Ukrainian Academy usually goes arthouse, but this may be of greater interest to AMPAS. Youth drama “Stop Zemlia” (Berlin, 14+ Winner) will likely come third, while “Bad Roads” (another Donbass drama) and crime drama “Rhino” likely won’t make an impact. UPDATE: I clearly misjudged the Ukrainians….They selected “Bad Roads”, which I had as the biggest long-shot.

United Kingdom- “The Feast” The UK sent films most years between 1991 and 2002 before taking a six-year break. In 2007, there was a major controversy when BAFTA inexplicably decided not to send either of two eligible films in minority Celtic languages (Scots Gaelic and Welsh), and sent nothing instead. Ever since the outcry, the UK has sent films almost every year since 2008.  Last year, they skipped because they seemed to have nothing eligible but I’m fairly sure they’ll be back this year. This year, the big question is whether refugee comedy “Limbo” is eligible. The film, set in an asylum processing center on a remote British island, is in English and Arabic and I’m not sure if it’s meets the language requirement. I’m going to try and see it this week to judge for myself. If it’s eligible, it will probably represent the UK but my guess for now is no. In that case, Welsh-language horror film “The Feast”, which has gotten great reviews at international fantasy and horror festivals, will likely be selected. It’s a drama steeped in local mythology about a young woman who returns home to a remote rural section of Wales.

Uruguay- “The Employer and the Employee” An appearance at Cannes Director’s Fortnight and the presence of arthouse star Nahuel Perez Biscayart will probably be enough to get “The Employer and the Employee” selected by Uruguay. Director Manolo Nieto has been up for this before but never been selected, and the film has gotten good reviews for its “slow-burn drama” about the increasingly intense relationship between a second-generation white-collar employer and blue-collar employee. Two other options- thriller “The Year of Fury” (Warsaw) is a Spanish co-production set in Uruguay in the days before a military coup, and “Hilda’s Short Summer” (San Sebastian) is about a depressed mother whose son suddenly cancels a much-awaited visit. “Fury” has a Spanish director (Rafa Russo) and crew (and co-stars Maribel Verdu) so may have eligibility issues…so “Employer” is probably safe. It’s a shame that the biggest Uruguayan film of the year- Dario Argento-style horror-comedy film “The Last Matinee”- isn’t eligible (it was released too early) as the Academy would have had a heart attack. Potential spoiler: Gustavo Hernandez was selected once for horror flick “Silent House” and his new zombie movie- “Virus 32” looks interesting….Unlike most countries, Uruguay usually chooses comedies so “Ghosting Gloria”, about a woman who falls in love with a sexually talented ghost, could be picked.

Uzbekistan- “I Am Not a Terrorist” Last year, Uzbekistan announced that “2000 Songs of Farida” had been selected from a shortlist of three films to represent the country. According to the director, he was contacted by AMPAS right before the deadline saying that the Uzbek Film Commission had sent a copy of the film in the wrong format and that they hadn’t responded to requests for a corrected version. He said he was unable to fill this request in time and ultimately, the film didn’t appear on the list. He claimed that the film would instead compete in 2021, but I’m not sure how that would be possible. In any case, there were three new Uzbek films featured at this month’s Tashkent International Film Festival and I’d assume these are the three that are most likely to be considered- thriller “I Am Not a Terrorist”, historical costume drama “Mukimi” and musical-comedy “On the Wings of a Dream”. I don’t think “Mukimi”, about a revered poet, or the musical numbers will translate that well. “I Am Not A Terrorist”, about a man tricked into joining an extremist group, seems too controversial but it’s Uzbekistan’s most likely choice. 

Venezuela- “Opposite Direction” Despite political and economic crises, Venezuela’s movie industry continues to make quality movies and even managed to hold their annual Festival of Venezuelan Film the past two years during Covid. They have five underdog candidates, including the past two winners at the Festival, namely “Un destello interior” (Moscow), about a severely ill woman trying to find someone to care for her young daughter, and “Especial” (Chicago), about an alcoholic father taking care of his 23-year old son with Down’s Syndrome. Two others have played at a number festivals- “Fortitude” (Rotterdam), a modern-day tale of gold prospectors in the Venezuelan jungle, and “Opposite Direction”, about a woman being pressured to keep a promise she made 13 years earlier as a 17-year old. Last year they picked a documentary, so “La causa”, about a severely overcrowded prison, is also a possible contender. The frontrunner appears to be “Opposite Directions”; director Alejandro Bellame has been selected for his past two films, but this is a wide-open race. If “Directions” doesn’t get it, the three fiction features are in a dead heat. I predict “Fortitude” in second place and “Un destello interior” in third.

Vietnam- “Taste” Globalization means that the Vietnamese frontrunner has a Nigerian lead actor. “Taste” has played at some of the world’s leading film festivals this year (including Moscow, Berlin, Karlovy Vary and Busan), garnering mostly positive reviews for its largely wordless story featuring an injured Nigerian footballer living in poverty with four middle-aged Vietnamese women. They have plenty of silly movies released, but the only other film that I think they’d consider sending is “578”, a revenge-action movie about a man hunting the man who abused his daughter.

Yemen- Nothing. War-torn Yemen submitted two films in 2014 and 2016. I didn’t see “I Am Nojoom” but “10 Days Before the Wedding”, literally filmed in the middle of a civil war, was one of the best films I saw from the 2016-2017 competition. While that film was a surprising success at home and although the country still makes some television series, I don’t think Yemen has made any eligible films since then.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Three countries in this group have gotten Oscar-approved selection committees but have never actually sent a film to the Oscars- Rwanda, Uganda and the United Arab Emirates.  RWANDA has the best option of these three with “Nameless”, a tragedy about the struggles of a young couple in the capital. It’s representing the country at FESPACO. The UAE is arguably the most important filmmaking country in the world that has never sent a film. They’ve had good options the last few years but this year is mostly an empty slate. UGANDA has “Kemi”, about an unwanted pregnancy, but I think that was eligible last year. ZAMBIA has feminist drama “Maria Kristu”, about a young woman railing against conservative religious traditions. But it’s anarchic SOMALIA that has the best option of any new country with quirky love story “The Gravedigger’s Wife” which has delighted audiences at Cannes, Toronto and elsewhere. Filmed in neighboring Djibouti because of instability in Somalia, I simply can’t see Somalia forming a committee.