FINAL FIVE: Predictions

So I got 9 out of 15 correct plus my two alternates (Mexico and Morocco)....Other than India, I had all 15 finalists in my Top 22. Sadly, the new voting rules clearly benefited the films that were seen by more voters and hurt the smaller films that weren't as well-known....There will be no "Lunana" this year....

I've seen five of the 15 finalists- "Argentina 1985", "Bardo", "Decision to Leave", "Last Film Show", and "The Quiet Girl"- and although they're all good movies, I don't think I'd nominate any of them for an Oscar (maybe "Bardo" for production design). Now that my weekend vacation has been canceled due to a dengue outbreak (!), I'll try to see "All Quiet on the Western Front" before the nominations come out on Tuesday....The other nine are impossible to watch online and aren't in cinemas here in South America.

This is a tough year to predict! Before, we start, let's look at a few of the most important precursors:

Golden Globes: Argentina (winner), Belgium, Germany and Korea (+ RRR)

Critics Choice: Argentina, Belgium, Germany, Korea, Mexico (+ RRR, which won)

BAFTA: Argentina, Austria, Germany, Ireland, Korea

European Film Awards: Austria, Belgium and Denmark (+ Spain and Triangle of Sadness, which won)

Satellite Awards: Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Korea, and Mexico (+ Norway)

National Board of Review: Belgium

Here are my final predictions, in groups of three. 

ALMOST GUARANTEED:

1.  GERMANY- "All Quiet on the Western Front"

2.  ARGENTINA- "Argentina 1985" 

3.  BELGIUM- "Close" 

Even if World War I drama "All Quiet on the Western Front" wasn't the most widely-seen film on the list (thanks to Netflix), and even if it wasn't the "biggest" and most expensive, it's widely touted as a Best Picture contender and a threat in several other categories....so it's in. 

Winning the Golden Globe was a huge boost to Argentina. In the past twelve years, eight Golden Globe winners in this category went on to win the Oscar ("Leviathan" got an Oscar nomination, only "In the Fade" and "Elle" failed to make the Final Five; U.S. production "Minari" wasn't eligible for International Film but got a Best Picture nomination). It also has the highest rating on Letterboxd (4.2), which is another good precursor, and has been widely seen via Amazon. That's surprising because, although "Argentina" is certainly a moving film, most of its power comes from the testimonies of victims of Argentina's dictatorship. It's a rather average film about extraordinary people. 

Critical darling "Close", about the friendship between two adolescent boys, was an early favorite to win after winning the Cannes Grand Prix (2nd Place to "Triangle of Sadness"). Its buzz has died down, but after sweeping the precursors (missing only BAFTA) and getting some of the best reviews on the list, it should get a nomination pretty easily.  

STRONG CONTENDERS:

4.  IRELAND- "Quiet Girl"

5.  PAKISTAN- "Joyland"

6.  POLAND- "EO"

Best of luck to Ireland and Pakistan who (along with Morocco) are fighting for their first-ever nomination in this category! 

I used to live in Pakistan and although I haven't seen "Joyland", it's the one film I'm really hoping for on Tuesday morning. But it's gonna be close.... "Quiet Girl" and "Joyland" are tied for second place on Letterboxd (behind Argentina) showing that people really do like these two films. 

The Irish Gaelic "Quiet Girl", about a young girl sent to stay with relatives one summer, is a quiet little film.....And while I wouldn't have been surprised if they were nominated in the 1990s- during the era of overrated nominees about kids like "Kolya", "Secrets of the Heart" and "The Thief"- I am a little surprised at how beloved the film is. Of course, I liked "Quiet Girl" better than the aforementioned films...the acting is strong and it's a nice story....but I found much of the story predictable and wasn't thinking about it the next day.....But over the years, I've learned that Oscar doesn't agree with me and I think "Quiet Girl" is in. 

As for "Joyland", it's anybody's guess...I'd say 5-9th place will be a virtual tie. I do worry that "Joyland" and "Blue Caftan"- LGBT stories from the Islamic world- will cancel each other out. So perhaps predicting "Joyland" is wishful thinking but I have wonderful things about this film about a wealthy young man who begins a romance with a hijra (trans woman). But reviews are strong and the film is only one on the list that has 100% on RT...it's also 2nd place on Letterboxd. This would be huge for Pakistani cinema and would make religious conservatives furious- good news on both counts. 

"EO", about a donkey being bought and sold and observing humanity around Europe, has gotten good reviews and made a number of critics "best of the year" lists...but I've heard mixed reviews. However, more than any other film, I've heard a recent buzz of energy and love for the film so it's timing may be perfect.....It's on the bubble....I would have liked to see it myself to decide!  

DIVISIVE DARK HORSES:

7.  AUSTRIA- "Corsage"

8.  FRANCE- "Saint Omer"

9.  SOUTH KOREA- "Decision to Leave"

I love Park Chan-wook and I know that "Decision to Leave" is considered a favorite....but I think that the film is too decisive to be nominated....and the same probably goes to the revisionist "Corsage" and the intellectual "Saint Omer". 

Let's start with Korea, since I've actually seen that one. "Decision" has done well at the precursors and it's probably been seen more than most of the other contenders. But while it succeeds fairly well as a Hitchcockian murder mystery, I think it fails as an "arthouse" film. The jury was out until the end of the film...which is a bit messy. I think it will be the surprise snub Tuesday morning. 

"Corsage" is a beautiful costume drama with a wicked sense of humor that will get votes from committee members from the tech branches. But although I thought this was going to make the Final Five, its marks on rating aggregator sites like Rotten Tomatoes (12th Place), IMDB (last place) and Letterboxd (tied for last place) are at the very bottom, so I don't think it's well-liked enough. Can't wait to see it though! I think I'll love it. Will be sad if Austria comes in sixth place twice in a row.... ("Great Freedom" richly deserved a nomination).  

As for France, I've heard people say "Saint Omer" is brilliant.....Those same people say it may be "too smart for it's own good." I've also heard others say they dislike the film. So, while I think it may be too divisive to get a nomination, it may succeed in getting a number of high-ranked votes....We'll see....

AN UPHILL BATTLE:

10.  MOROCCO- "Blue Caftan"

11.  CAMBODIA- "Return to Seoul"

12.  MEXICO- "Bardo"

Not too much to say about these three films....I've seen "Bardo" and Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu clearly wanted to make his film his way, channeling Federico Fellini and Jean-Pierre Jeunet, while telling a weird story about himself, Aztec gods and axolotls in which he's in a coma....maybe? There are moments of brilliance amidst sheer insanity and vanity. I actually liked the film...sometimes....but most people don't and it probably made the shortlist just because the new rules benefited big-name films (and Iñárritu is the biggest name on the list). 

The two films from Cambodia and Morocco- coincidentally both France-majority productions- have very good reviews. In fact, "Blue Caftan" is a real critical darling....if the buzzier "Joyland" weren't also on the list, I might place it higher. Adoptee drama "Return to Seoul", about a Frenchwoman discovering her Korean roots, will finish in a respectable position but is highly unlikely to make the Top 5.  

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST: 

13.   DENMARK- "Holy Spider"

14.  SWEDEN- "Cairo Conspiracy"

15.  INDIA- "Last Film Show"

The two "Middle Eastern films" from Scandinavia- "Holy Spider" in Persian and "Cairo Conspiracy" in Arabic- have probably gone as far as they can. While Denmark is usually a strong contender (7 nominations including two wins in the past 12 years) serial killer thriller "Holy Spider" is gratuitously violent and not what Oscar usually goes for. Sweden's religious thriller "Cairo Conspiracy" was one of the shortlist surprises.....Although the film has good reviews and won Best Screenplay at Cannes, it's missed all the precursors and I think the Islamic intrigue may be too obscure for American voters. 

For me, India's Gujarati-language "Last Cinema Paradiso" "Last Film Show" was the one shock on the shortlist. I didn't even have it ranked in my top half....I watched "Last Film Show" today (it's available for purchase on YouTube in the United States) and it's better than I thought. It's a sweet little film- no more, no less- about a young boy living in rural Gujarat circa 2010 who becomes obsessed with going to the cinema. It's clearly semi-autobiographical (and thus not a ripoff of "Cinema Paradiso")....Ultimately, it's more visually interesting than dramatically interesting. And yes they should have selected "RRR".