FINAL PREDICTIONS

With the Final 15 due to be announced in a few hours, it's time to make my final predictions. The new voting system is very confusing with Oscar voters asked to rank their Top 15 choices instead of giving each film a score....So, I fear that if 100 voters watch their screeners of "Bardo" and only 10 see "Aurora's Sunrise" (the best of the 26 films I've seen), will "Bardo" rank higher if 100 people rank it #15 and all ten people rank "Aurora" #1?? I'm not sure. But I worry the new system may just be the 15 most watched (i.e. high-profile) films with fewer little surprises like "Lunana" getting through. We'll soon see. 

PREDICTED NOMINEES:

1. GERMANY- “All Quiet on the Western Front”

2. BELGIUM- “Close"

3, ARGENTINA- “Argentina, 1985”

4. NORWAY- “War Sailor”

5. KOREA- “Decision to Leave”

6. AUSTRIA- “Corsage”

7. UKRAINE- “Klondike" (helped by sentiment due to the war)

8. FRANCE- “Saint Omer”

9. BOLIVIA- “Utama”

10. ARMENIA- “Aurora’s Sunrise” (wishful thinking??)

11. POLAND- “EO” (nobody seems to like it, but it's winning all the critics awards in the USA....)

12. DENMARK- “Holy Spider”

13. ALBANIA- “A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On”

14. PAKISTAN- “Joyland”

15. BULGARIA- “In the Heart of the Machine”

VERY STRONG ALTERNATES:

16. MEXICO- "Bardo" (not well-liked, but could do well for the reasons I mention above)

17. MOROCCO- "Blue Caftan"

18. ICELAND- "Beautiful Beings"

19. CROATIA- "Safe Place"

20. SWEDEN- "Cairo Conspiracy" (aka "Boy From Heaven")

21. CAMBODIA- "Return to Seoul"

22. IRELAND- "The Quiet Girl"

23. MONGOLIA- "Harvest Moon"

24. JORDAN- "Farha"

DARK HORSES

25. BRAZIL- "Mars One"

26. PANAMA- "Birthday Boy"

27. LEBANON- "Memory Box"

28. UNITED KINGDOM- "Winners"

29. MOLDOVA- "Carbon"

30. JAPAN- "Plan 75"

31. PHILIPPINES- "On the Job: The Missing 8"

32. MACEDONIA- "Happiest Man in the World"

UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE

33. IRAQ- "The Exam"

34. SLOVAKIA- "Victim"

35. AUSTRALIA- "You Won't Be Alone"

36. COLOMBIA- "Kings of the World"

37. VENEZUELA- "The Box"

38. ALGERIA- "Nos frangins"

39. IRAN- "World War III"

40. ISRAEL- "Cinema Sabay"

41. SPAIN- "Alcarras"

42. SLOVENIA- "Orchestra"