Final Prediction

 A few months ago, this looked like a wide-open race that a dozen films could have won….

However, since the Oscar nominations came out, “All Quiet on the Western Front” has emerged as the unstoppable front runner. Nominated for nine Oscars- including Best Picture- plus winning the BAFTA, Germany is sure to win its fourth Oscar, following “The Tin Drum”, “Nowhere in Africa” and “The Lives of Others”. And while “All Quiet” was nowhere near the best film submitted this year, it is probably the best of the five nominees (unfortunately I haven’t seen “Close”). 

The Golden Globe victory for Argentina was certainly a surprise. And Poland’s odd “EO” has picked up a lot of buzz….But at the end of the day, Oscar loves a big war movie. 

Incidentally, I saw 49 of the submissions this year and would probably pick Bulgaria or Armenia as the winner. 

81%- “All Quiet on the Western Front

10%- “Argentina 1985”

5%- “EO”

4%- “Close”

0%- “The Quiet Girl”