INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR THE AMERICAS (22 countries)

I was waiting for Venice to start and for Brazil to announce its shortlist (they announced an absurd 28 films earlier today) before publishing, but five of these countries (Canada, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay) decided to announce early. I got them all wrong. 🙄

1. ARGENTINA- “Puan” As always, Argentina has plenty to choose from but I think the race will come down to which of two exciting upcoming thrillers gets better reviews- “Puan” (San Sebastian) or “The Rescue” (Venice Horizons). Kidnapping drama “The Rescue”, starring Rodrigo de la Serna, is about a man whose brother is held hostage for ransom. “Argentina 1985” was a Venice premiere (as were “El clan”, “Distinguished Citizen” and “Zama”) and “The Rescue” is definitely the favorite…but I’m predicting “Puan”, an “academic thriller” about a dedicated, hard-working professor in line to become head of a department, who gets overshadowed by a charismatic new arrival (Leonardo Sbaraglia). Just a hunch. Five other options (in order) that could conceivably rep Latin America’s most successful country (8 nominations, 2 wins) in this category: (1)- “Los impactados” (San Sebastian), about a family whose daughter is struck by lightning….director Lucia Puenzo has been picked twice before; (2)- “Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” (SxSW), a low-key but very well-reviewed film about a religious woman trying to perform a miracle, (3)- “About Thirty” (Berlin), a comedy about an unlucky 30-year old; (4)- “Let the Dance Begin” (Malaga), about three aging friends/tango dancers and (5)- “Blondi”, about a mother-daughter relationship who act like sisters. Less possible: “The Delinquents” (Cannes), “Ravaging Wind” (San Sebastian) and “Klezmer Project” (Berlin).

2. BOLIVIA- "The Visitor" Bolivia deserved at least a spot on the shortlist for beautiful Sundance winner "Utama"....but the new voting rules probably caused it to lose out. Bolivia only has a handful of national releases this year, but it's still a competitive race. The favorite is "The Visitor", which won Best Screenplay (International) at Tribeca 2022, about a man released from prison who tries to develop a relationship with his young daughter who has been raised by his Evangelical in-laws. 87-year old Jorge Sanjines, considered one of the fathers of Bolivian national cinema also has a promising new film- "Old Soldiers"- about the friendship between an indigenous Bolivian who moves to the city, and a white Bolivian who moves to the countryside. But the leftist Sanjines turned down a previous opportunity to rep Bolivia and his ideological films aren't likely to appeal to Western audiences. It also may not premiere in time. Confusing drama "Los de abajo" (Best Actor, Moscow 2023), about a poor man fighting a rich landowner, is a third possibility. 

3. BRAZIL- “Pictures of Ghosts” Brazil announced that 28 films registered to compete for the Oscar (possibly a record?) which they quickly whittled down to six, including five fiction features- “Alien Nights”, “Nosso Sonho”, “A Strange Path”, “Toll” and “Vultures”. It’s an unusual list almost completely focused on the Afro-Brazilian experience. Of these five, only “Toll” seems likely, although the fact that the unseen musical biopic “Nosso Sonho” made the list over higher profile entries mean it could be a surprise contender. I’m hoping they pick “Toll” the story of a homophobic Christian mother who gets involved with organized crime to earn money to send her son to “gay conversion” center. It’s the only one that got major festival play (Toronto, San Sebastián), although graffiti  youth drama “Vultures” won Best Brazilian Film at São Paulo 2022. However, the favorite is the one documentary on the list, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s ode to cinema, “Pictures of Ghosts”. The last time Brazil picked a documentary about cinema (“Babenco”) it was the worst film on the entire list (and one of the worst films I saw that year).  But the critics adored “Ghosts”, about Recife’s decaying cinemas, which landed berths at Cannes, Toronto and New York and impressed film buffs who got “Last Film show” on the shortlist last year. Kleber is also felt to be “owed”. His “Aquarius” was snubbed, allegedly for political reasons, and they’ll want to reward him. I wasn’t impressed with his previous “Neighbouring Sounds”…but “Ghosts” will probably win against “Toll”…though I hope not. 

1. Pictures of Ghosts 54%

2. Toll 40%

3. Nosso Sonho 5%

4. Vultures 1%

5. Alien Nights 0%

6. A Strange Path 0%

4. CANADA- “The Nature of Love” (Simple comme Sylvain) Once a major power in this category, Canada has been uneven recently and they haven’t been nominated in eleven years. Over the past decade, they’ve sent some wonderfully deserving films (“Mommy”, “Drunken Birds”) as well as odd duds (“Felix & Meira”, “Eternal Spring”). As usual, Canada has plenty to choose from but many of their leading contenders are premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September (many with unannounced release dates) and it’s difficult to tell what is good and what is eligible. For now, my prediction is “The Nature of Love” a well-reviewed relationship drama about the problems of monogamy that earned quite good reviews for Monia Chokri at Cannes Un Certain Regard. But it has plenty of competition, notably from two Toronto premieres- LGBT drama “Solo” about Montreal’s drag scene and Holocaust drama “Irena’s Vow”, about the Polish housekeeper to a Nazi officer who hides Polish Jews. Both have female directors who were selected once before. Of these two runner-ups, I give “Solo” the edge because it actually has a release date, unlike “Irena”.  Rounding out the Top Five from Canada are “Temporaries” (Richelieu), about a woman trying to help exploited Guatemalan migrant workers (“Drunken Birds” showed the Canadian Academy’s interest in migrant stories) and “What We See”, a drama in Inuktikut about two First Nations sisters separated by COVID restrictions. One final dark horse is “Riceboy Sleeps”, a sleeper hit about a Korean-Canadian and his immigrant mother…though the trailer seems to be about 50% in English and Canadian won’t want to repeat a “Funny Boy” announcement and disqualification. But it will be a strong contender if it’s eligible. Update: Canada surprised everyone by going with little-known ISIS documentary “Rojek” 

5. CHILE- “The Eternal Memory” Even before Chile announced its five shortlisted candidates for the Oscars, I assumed they had four frontrunners. Three or these had major factors standing in their way- Pablo Larrain had been picked four times and has one Oscar International Feature nomination (“No”), plus he directed two Oscar nominated films in English (“Spencer” and “Jackie”)…but his upcoming Netflix film “The Count” is a vampire comedy about bloody dictator Augusto Pinochet, which some Chileans (on both left and right!) may find to be in bad taste. Grim historical drama “The Settlers” premiered at Cannes and had mostly good reviews…but two of its three leads are Anglophone and I thlught it may not qualify. “El vacio” is the comeback vehicle for Gustavo Graef Marino who was picked way back in 1993 (“Johnny 100 Pesos”) but who has made very few films since. But this May-December romance had very little buzz or festival play.  i figured the fourth contender- “The Eternal Memory” had everything going for it. It’s timely, critically acclaimed, and about a topic that will resonate with elderly AMPAS voters (Alzheimer’s disease)..plus director Maite Alberdi got an Oscar nomination (for Documentary feature, plus an International Feature shortlist spot) for the rather brilliant “The Mole Agent”. I was very confident this would go to Alberdi…Just read the reviews! When Chile announced their shortlist, a fifth option- documentary “Meeting Point”- also appeared on the shortlist. In the end, Chile sent “Memory” to the Goyas and my runner-up “The Settlers” to the Oscars. Probably not a good choice.

6. COLOMBIA- “The Other Son” I originally predicted Colombia would choose “La Suprema” which will premiere in Toronto- but it won’t be released in cinemas this year. I had Cannes drama “Un varon”, about toxic masculinity, as my runner-up.  But when I saw Colombia’s 15-film shortlist (11 fiction dramas, three documentaries and an animated film), I quickly dumped “Un varon”- which premiered over a year ago and got middling reviews and no buzz- for new drama “The Other Son”, premiering at San Sebastián, about a man falling for his dead brother’s girlfriend. That was a mistake as “El varon” somehow ended up being selected over its stronger competition. I guess the Cannes label went really far.  Other films on the list that may have come close: drama “Nubes grises soplan sobre el campo verde”, documentaries “Alis” (Berlin) and “Anhell69” (Venice), “Somos Ecos”, a guerrilla rebel drama, commercial thriller “Timeline” and wordless animated film “The Other Shape” 

7. COSTA RICA- “I Have Electric Dreams” (Tengo sueños eléctricos) It’s difficult to see Costa Rica choosing anything other than “I Have Electric Dreams”, a coming-of-age drama (already on Mubi) and feature debut by Belgium-based Costa Rican director Valentina Maurel, who has had her short films screened at Cannes. “Dreams”, about a teenage girl torn between her divorced parents, premiered at Locarno 2022.  It’s difficult to say what Costa Rica would pick if “Dreams” isn’t eligible….possibly “Guian”, a documentary about the Costa Rican-Chinese community. Should be an easy selection this year. 

8. CUBA- “El mundo de Nelsito” Cuba submits films roughly half the time, although they have taken the past two years off. They had two fiction features and two documentary features at the December 2022 Havana Film Festival, so if they send anything it will probably be one of these “approved” films. Both fiction features- “El mundo de Nelsito” and “Under a Powerful Sun”- are by fairly senior directors, including 79-year old Fernando Perez who was selected twice (a long time ago) in 1991 and 2003. “Under a Powerful Sun”, about a director haunted by the ghosts of characters from three of his films, looks a bit less accessible than “Nelsito”, a dramatic comedy about the imagination of an autistic teen.

9. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Boca Chica” The Dominican Republic, the only Caribbean nation to submit films regularly, has sent films every year for the past 12 years. That includes three films by Leticia Tonos, three by Jose Maria Cabral and two from the team of Laura Amelia Guzmán and Israel Cárdenas. The prolific Jose Maria Cabral (one of my favorite Latin American directors) has no new films this year but the other two are hoping to be selected again. The three frontrunners are Tonos’ postapocalyptic sci-fi “Aire”, now in post-production after winning a genre award at Cannes Film Market, Guzman/Cardenas’ “La Hembrita” (Rotterdam), a subtle drama about a depressed but wealthy housewife who begins taking care of her housekeeper’s granddaughter; plus “Boca Chica” (Tribeca), about a 12-year old girl growing up in a poor, beach area famous for prostitution. “Aire” doesn’t have a release date yet and could compete next year….The other two quiet dramas will be close….but I’m predicting “Boca Chica” because of its Tribeca award in the USA and because it’s stylistically closer to what the DR picked last year. Rounding out the Top Five: comedies “Cuarencena” and “Year of the Tiger". 

10. ECUADOR- “Octopus Skin” (La piel pulpo) Ecuador has submitted films regularly since 2013. The only Ecuadorian film on the film festival circuit this year is “Octopus Skin” (San Sebastian), a drama about two 17-year old twins (a boy and a girl) with an uncomfortably close relationship. Writer/director Ana Cristina Barragan was selected once before for “Alba”. Unlikely but possible: thriller “Distortion”, about a man left emotionally unstable when his wife leaves him, and black comedy “Los Napoles”. 

11. GUATEMALA- “Roza” Guatemala has sent films two of the past three years. I hate predicting the same film two years in a row, but Guatemala has been quiet (Jayro Bustamente is working in the U.S. this year) and “Roza” (Locarno Open Doors 2022) seems to be their only viable option. The film follows a young indigenous laborer who returns to his Guatemalan village only to find his wife and family unenthusiastic about his return. The film had its Guatemalan premiere in October 2022 (the “start” of the Oscar year begins December 1, 2022) but it could qualify if it got a qualifying release in local cinemas later. Less likely: documentary “A Song Left Recorded”, about two aging musicians, or low-budget crime drama “Misogyny”. Or, like most years, they may skip. 

12. HAITI- "Mountains” Impoverished, unstable Haiti sent two films to the Oscars, in 2017 and 2021. As I ’mentioned last year, they have a big film in post-production- “July 7”- about the 2021 assassination of Preisdent Jovenel Moise but there don’t seem to be any updates since last summer. If Haiti does choose to submit, it will be "Mountains", a majority U.S. production directed by Haitian-American Monica Sorelle. It follows a Haitian-American immigrant family, appears to be mostly in Haitian Creole, and has been a critical success at Tribeca and Toronto...but may not be considered "Haitian" enough. 

13. HONDURAS- “Berta, Soy Yo” Honduras submitted films three times between 2017-2020, but they’ve been absent the past two years. I don’t think they’ll send anything this year either but their best option would be “Berta, Soy Yo”, a documentary which attempts to solve the murder of indigenous activist Berta Caceres via clues left behind by her crusading work.

14. MEXICO- “Noise” (Ruido) Mexico announced a six or seven-film shortlist on August 29 (there seems to be some confusion whether “Northern Skies Over Empty Space” is on the Oscar list or if it was only submitted for the Goyas). Of note, Mexico usually picks a movie backed by Netflix and four of the films (The Great Seduction, Noise, Que Viva Mexico! and Where the Tracks End) are already streaming. So, assuming “Northern Skies” isn’t competing and that “Que viva Mexico!” isn't competitive due to poor reviews and the ire of the Mexican President, we have five choices. Despite very good reviews, horror flick  “Huesera” would be an odd choice and comedy “The Great Seduction” (costarring Yalitza Aparicio) doesn’t look serious enough, which leaves us with three strong options. In third place, “Where the Tracks End” is a simple story with cute kids about a dedicated teacher in a rural area. This formula worked for “Lunana”, but the film will likely come third place. So, will Mexico select Netflix’s “Noise”, about a woman searching for her missing daughter? Or quiet family drama “Totem”? I think they’ll send one to the Oscars and one the to the Goyas. Though “Noise” worryingly failed to get a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Ariel Awards (Totem wasn’t eligible), I think Netflix and the universal subject matter will justify its selection. I predict “Totem” as both runner-up and Goya candidate.

15. NICARAGUA- “Daughter of Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) Nicaragua hasn’t send a film to the Oscars since 2010 but “Daughter of Rage” is their highest-profile feature film in over a decade, earning a berth at San Sebastian 2022 and a coveted Premios Platino nomination for Best First Feature. The story, about an impoverished mother and daughter working in a dangerous landfill, would represent a welcome return for Nicaragua.

16. PANAMA- “Sister & Sister” (Las hijas) Panama likely has a two-way race between drama “Sister & Sister” (SXSW), a coming-of-age story about two teenaged sisters on a road trip to find their estranged father, and wrestling documentary “Nation of Titans”, which won the main award at Panama’s scaled down national film festival in 2023. Panama is partial to documentaries (three of their nine submissions were docs) but “Titans” takes a very ‘local’ theme (beloved local wrestlers) so I think the festival play of “Sister & Sister” will make that the winner. Other options: drama “Gauguin & the Canal” and documentary “Tito, Margot y yo”.

17. PARAGUAY- ”Guapo’y” Paraguay has sent six films since joining the Oscar race in 2015, and five of them have been decidedly “arthouse”. I was strongly predicting they would send “Boreal”, about Paraguay’s isolated Mennonite community, which recently appeared at a Locarno 2023 sidebar for “the most interesting independent films” from small Latin American countries. However, I was surprised it wasn’t on their three-film Goya list. The biggest Paraguayan movie of the year- “The List”- is being touted as the first-ever U.S.-Paraguayan co-production and essentially transports the “The Purge” to South America, as Paraguayans are given 12 hours to take revenge on a family with ties to the former dictatorship. I think it would qualify despite its American director, but it was also absent from the Goya list. The three Goya finalists- drama “Guapo’y”, claustrophobic horror film “The Apartment” and action sequel “Leal 2”  will probably all submit themselves for the Oscar and “Guapo’y” is likely to be selected. Or, as in 2019, they could vote to send nothing at all. For now let’s say “Guapo’y” with “Boreal” the runner-up. 

18. PERU- “Willaq Pirqa”  Last year, I predicted “La pampa” (The Invisible Girl), a critically acclaimed human trafficking drama, which finally premiered in Peruvian cinemas in 2023 and is now of the year’s three frontrunners. It’s main competition comes from two indigenous films- the Quechua language “Willaq Pirqa”, about cinema coming to an indigenous community that doesn’t speak Spanish, and the Aymara-language “Yana-Wara” which has a tragic, sentimental backstory. Filming started in 2021 by up-and-coming 34-year old indigenous director Oscar Catacora (His tragically sad “Winaypacha” represented Peru in 2018).  He died unexpectedly of appendicitis when he was unable to get medical attention in time, and his uncle (also a director) completed his film, about a respected elder accused of murdering his granddaughter. It’s premiering at the Lima Film Festival in August, but Peruvian films often have a year-long delay, making it doubtful it will be eligible this year.  Peru’s 2017 submission had played at festivals two years before it was selected! “Willaq” won the major prizes at last year’s Lima Film Festival and has been a minor box-office hit, and is confirmed to have gotten a cinematic release. Rounding out the Top 5 for Peru: Spanish-language drama “Diogenes” (Malaga) and another indigenous tale, “Shipibos Stories” (Lima), in the Shipibo language spoken by roughly 30,000 people. UPDATE: “Willaq  Pirqa” was selected to represent Peru at the Spanish Goya Awards but was not on the Oscar shortlist, which received a great deal of criticism in Peru. According to one source, “Willaq Pirqa” was disqualified by the Peruvian Academy because it entered and lost the race to “Moon Heart” last year before changing its release date and becoming a hit in December 2022. “La Pampa” was also on the Goya list but not the Oscar lost, possibly for the same reasons. Peru selected dark family comedy “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli” for the Oscars which I had never heard of. The fact that “Willaq Pirqa” beat “Torbilio” and “La Pampa” for the Goyas shows it did in fact have very strong support. 

19. PUERTO RICO- “La pecera” Puerto Rico was uninvited from the Oscars for ridiculous and obscure reasons in 2010 when U.S. territories were banned from the competition- even though Puerto Rico is the only one of the five U.S. territories that has a film industry. This happened even though other territories like Greenland (Denmark) and Hong Kong (China) with a similar status are welcome to submit films and in spite of the fact that Puerto Rico earned an Oscar nomination (during the 1989/1990 race) when countries like Egypt, Philippines and Venezuela never have. This year Puerto Rico had a great film year, and if they were allowed back at the Oscars I think they’d send “La pecera”, a wholly Puerto Rican film that competed at Sundance. It’s the story of a woman who returns to her home in Puerto Rico when her cancer returns, and reviews have been great. But with “Without Prescription” (Audience Award, SXSW 2022) and “The Kings of Salsa”, which prominently showcases Puerto Rican music, this would have been a very competitive year.

20. SURINAME- Nothing Tiny Suriname (pop: 610,000) is the smallest country in the region ever to enter the Oscar race. They entered just once during the pandemic, in 2020. As far as I know, they don’t have any films this year that would be eligible. 

21. URUGUAY- “Milonga” A lot of people are predicting that JA Bayona’s “Society of the Snow” will represent Uruguay and possibly win the Oscar. I disagree. Of course, I agree that “Society of the Snow” could potentially win an Oscar. Bayona is a brilliant director and the story of Uruguay’s Flight 571 is one of the greatest survival stories of the 20^th century (most people know it as the flight from the movie “Alive”). And it’s a defining moment of Uruguayan history. But if it’s chosen, it will need to be selected by Bayona’s native Spain, because “Snow” is a majority Spanish-production. The directors, writers and producers are all Spanish.  Only one executive producer, the cinematographer and a few actors are Uruguayan. That’s not enough to establish “creative control” according to AMPAS. So, I think Uruguay will select either “Milonga”, a tango drama starring Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) and Cesar Troncoso (a local star who has been in at least half a dozen Uruguayan submissions) filled with music and dance, or documentary “Portrait of My Father”, featuring a filmmaker trying to solve the mystery of his own father’s suicide. I have teen friendship drama “Nina & Emma” in third and, because Uruguay likes to send comedies, “Temas propios” in fourth.  UPDATE: Never underestimate Uruguay’s desire to send comedies almost every year. They sent “Temas propios”…”Milonga” was on the list of considered films. As I predicted, “Society of the Snow” was not. 

22. VENEZUELA- “Shadow of the Sun” (La Sombra del Sol) Venezuelan filmmakers continue to make great films despite political and economic problems at home. The annual Festival del Cine Venezolano is the main pre-cursor for Venezuela and this year’s big winner, “Simon”, was a shock because it’s fervently anti-government, focusing on a Venezuelan activist seeking asylum in the United States. I’m not sure if Venezuela’s selection committee is pro- or anti-regime (or neutral) but I’ve heard “Simon” is great but mostly in English. I think that three films from this year’s festival- “El salto de los Angeles”, “Shadow of the Sun” (which won two of the smaller Best Film prizes) and “Sons of the Revolution” are the strongest candidates, alongside the winner of the 2022 festival (“Me & the Beasts”) that was finally released in Venezuelan cinemas in 2023. All four are in with a chance but I’m predicting “Shadow of the Sun”, about two brothers- one deaf, one hearing- who enter a music contest together. It won four awards at the Venezuelan Film Festival and Venezuela may be influenced by “CODA”’s Best Picture victory two years ago. I have “Sons of the Revolution” in second place because it seems like the sort of grim drama that the Venezuelan Academy usually goes for. It’s about twenty years in the lives of two very different individuals born on the same day…but it’s more political than what Venezuela usually chooses and it only won awards for its actresses. I’m personally hoping for “Me & the Beasts”, a quirky comedy, but it doesn’t look serious enough.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

El Salvador is the only country in Latin America that has never sent a film to the Oscars. They actually had suitable contenders in 2018 ("La palabra de Pablo", which I loved), 2021 ("El suspiro del silencio") and 2022 ("Sueños Ilegales") but nothing really promising that would encourage them to debut this year.  

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR THE ASIA-PACIFIC (28 countries)

And here are my predictions for the countries from Asia and the Pacific:

1. AFGHANISTAN- “Bread and Roses” The Taliban re-opened cinemas in 2022, and appointed a new and inexperienced 29-year old to head the country’s National Film Agency. That may sound like an improvement (they used to publicly burn films) but it's really not. There are vague, confusing rules banning women from appearing or working in most films. While Afghanistan has more important things than the Oscars on their mind, it would be a lovely symbolic move if they sent documentary “Bread and Roses” which debuted at Cannes 2023, about the lives of three women after the 2021 Taliban takeover, produced by an exiled female director.

2. AUSTRALIA- “Shayda” As usual, the big problem with predicting Australia is that it’s unclear which films have enough non-English dialogue to qualify. “Shayda”, about an Iranian mother and daughter who find refuge in an Australian women’s shelter, got rave reviews at Sundance and will probably be selected if it is more than 50% in Persian. If not, they'll probably choose Goran Stolevksi ("You Won't Be Alone") for a second year in a row for queer comedy-drama "Housekeeping for Beginners" (Venice; completely in Macedonian). Other possibilities: Paul Mescal’s re-telling of “Carmen” (partly in Spanish, but probably too much English?), aboriginal documentary “Audrey Napanangka” and Pacific Islander anthology “We Are Still Here” (which is my prediction for New Zealand).

3. BANGLADESH- “Memories of Gloomy Monsoons” Bangladesh has quietly become one of the most reliable countries in Asia, missing just one year since 2005. They typically produce about 100 films annually though they've never had a serious Oscar contender. This year, arthouse film “Memories of Gloomy Monsoons” made the news in Bangladesh after it won a major award and glowing reviews at the Dhaka International Film Festival but couldn’t get a cinematic release because it “lacked big stars”. It was eventually released in five cinemas and sending it to the Oscars would be a nice way to reward it. Two upcoming films- “A Tale of Two Sisters”, set during the 1971 War for Independence, and “Roktojoba”, about an anonymous letter that causes a great deal of trouble- could also be selected. Less possible: “Payer Chhap”, about a girl growing up in an impoverished family. Last year, Bangladesh picked a box-office hit (“Hawa”) so they could pick “Priyotoma”….but I don’t think reviews are good enough. Bangladesh's submission probably should be terrorism drama “Saturday Afternoon”, one of the best-reviewed Bangladeshi films of all time, which finally won approval from Bangladeshi censors four years after premiering in Moscow, in 2019. I don’t think it ever got a cinematic release and doubt the Bangladeshi Academy would be brave enough to send it.

4. BHUTAN- “The Monk & the Gun” The Oscar-nominated director of “Lunana", Pawo Choyning Dorji, has a new film premiering at the Toronto Film Festival- "The Monk & the Gun"- and Bhutan did launch an open call for Oscar submissions perhaps in anticipation of sending it. We'll see if the Bhutanese can get "Monk", about the 2006 introduction of television, Internet and democratic elections- in local cinemas by October 31. Bhutan has an active Bollywood-style local film industry but they seem to have decided to just send films made for an international audience. If "Monk" doesn't get released at home, they could send “Choegyal Norzang & Yeethro Lhamo”, which looks like a sort of Bhutanese “Crouching Tiger” period drama.

5. CAMBODIA- “Wishing Lollipop” Cambodia doesn’t have much to choose from this year, as a follow-up to their excellent “Return to Seoul” which was deservedly shortlisted last year. However, they’ve only missed one year since they started submitting regularly in 2012….so I suspect they’ll find something. That could be “Wishing Lollipop”, described as an unconventional romantic comedy. I think “The Perfect Motion”, a documentary about the Cambodian Royal Ballet whose ranks were decimated when the Khmer Rouge tried to massacre all national artists, would be a far stronger choice. But the film- which is wholly Cambodian but has a foreign director and mostly foreign crew- may not qualify. Other options: drama “A Cambodian Winter”; documentary “Lotus Sports Club” (about a transgender athlete) and even horror movie "The House" could compete if they were released in such a weak year. 

6. CHINA- “Full River Red” China makes some great films….but the Chinese Academy rarely sends them to the Oscars. In the past eight years, only one film (“Cliff Walkers”) has been a serious Oscar contender, selected alongside films like the atrocious action movie “Wolf Warrior 2” and the (admittedly beautifully animated) children’s cartoon “Ne Zha”. Recently, China has preferred box-office hits over award-winning films. Although murder mystery “Only the River Flows” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard) is probably China’s best shot, the censors will surely find some way of being offended by some aspect of it…I see two main possibilities for China- “Full River Red” by master filmmaker Zhang Yimou (who has repped China eight times and Hong Kong once) and “Love Never Ends”, a romantic drama about Chinese senior citizens that opened the Shanghai Film Festival, was one of the winners of the “Most Popular Film of the Year” (2022 submission “Nice View” won last year) and which could potentially resonate with elderly Oscar voters. They’ve only picked one out of the four films Zhang has made since helming “The Great Wall” in Hollywood, but it’s always risky betting against China's most important international director.  China is usually impossible to predict, but a few other strong possibilities (in order)- “Lost in the Stars”, a box-office smash crime drama about a missing woman who reappears with no memory of her husband, “Hidden Blade”, a patriotic thriller starring Tony Leung, “Never Say Never”, a box-office smash sports drama about orphans, “The Coldest City”, an anti-Japan action drama set in 1945, “The Great War”, a Korean War movie by film great Chen Kaige about China “protecting” North Korea from U.S.-South Korean forces, “Creation of the Gods”, a massive fantasy blockbuster based on Chinese mythology and history; “Chang An”, a stylish animation movie, and “Shadowless Tower” (Berlin) rounding out the Top Ten.

7. FIJI- Nothing Fiji sent a single film in 2005. The director of that film, Hawai’i-based Vilsoni Hereniko, made an animated short last year (Sina ma Tinirau) but it’s too short and was made in English. Fiji doesn’t have a domestic film industry and they don’t have anything eligible. 

8. HONG KONG- “The Goldfinger” The Hong Kong Academy loves crime dramas with big HK stars- even when nobody else likes them….Last year’s “Where the Wind Blows” (starring Tony Leung and Aaron Kwok) didn’t have particularly good reviews and couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination at the Hong Kong Film Awards. So, this year’s hotly anticipated “The Goldfinger” (previously known as “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong”), reuniting HK film royalty Tony Leung and Andy Lau twenty years after “Infernal Affairs” and reportedly the most expensive HK film ever made will automatically be chosen….if it gets a qualifying release. I think it will. The long-delayed film has been announced for New Year’s Eve weekend…two months after the October 31 deadline. But Hong Kong has been known to pick films and do a one-week unpublicized preview release to qualify for the Oscars. They did this in 2005, 2009, 2011, and- most recently- last year. “Goldfinger” has been delayed so long I can’t see it missing another year. If Hong Kong saves it for next year, the race to represent the city-state is wide open. My other five predictions (in order): “Mad Fate” (Berlin 2023), a gory murder mystery that opened the 2023 Hong Kong Film Festival and is produced by Johnnie To, whose films have repped Hong Kong four times, “The Narrow Road”, a COVID-era drama that got nominated for Best Pic at the HK Film Awards (HKFA), “To My 19-Year Old Self”, the sleeper documentary about high-school girls that actually won Best Picture at the HKFA, and was directed by 72-year old Mabel Cheung who repped Hong Kong over thirty years ago, “A Guilty Conscience”, a dark comedy about a lawyer trying to exonerate an innocent woman, and “Sunny Side of the Street”, about a HK-born Pakistani youth. The HK film I most want to see this year is jet-black housing comedy “Over My Dead Body”, but that’s a pretty long shot.

9. INDIA- TBD

10. INDONESIA- “Autobiography” In the past five years, Indonesia has selected three acclaimed arthouse dramas featured at major film festivals (Cannes, Toronto and Venice) and two surprising genre films- a bloody horror film and a commercial comedy that had each inked U.S. streaming deals. This year, “Autobiography” (Venice and Toronto 2022), a drama about complicated class relationships, seems to be the strong frontrunner. It’s gotten very good reviews for its creepy story of a young man who gets caught up in political intrigue when his ex-military boss decides to run for mayor, and it’s the only eligible film nominated for Best Picture  at last year’s national Cintra Awards. With Mouly Surya’s historical epic “This City is a Battlefield” delayed, “Autobiography” doesn’t have much competition…But if Indonesia does choose something more commercial, then social media drama “Like & Share” or group suicide thriller “Fireworks”- which both have Netflix deals- could contend. But I predict  an easy win for “Autobiography”. 

11. JAPAN- “Monster” Of course, Japan produces tons of great films every year but this year looks like a brutal showdown between two of the country’s greatest directors- Hirokazu Koreeda, who was nominated for “Shoplifters” and now has “Monster” (Cannes), and two-time Oscar winner and national treasure Hayao Miyazaki, 82, who has announced that “The Boy and the Heron” (Opening Film, Toronto) will be his final film. Both films have great reviews but it’s “Monster” that will be clearly be a more serious threat for a nomination so that’s my pick. Japan should push “Boy” for Best Animated Feature….But a big part of me really thinks this will go to Miyazaki. Two other Oscar veterans are in the mix: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, director of the overrated, overlong “Drive My Car” has a new film premiering at Vencie (“Evil Does Not Exist”)….IMDB says it will premiere in Japan in 2024, but this could be a surprise last-minute contender. And 91-year old Yoji Yamada, nominated for “Twilight Samurai”, has a new film that may also be his last- “Hi, Mom!”….though Japan should know better that the other two would be stronger choices. “Kubi” and “Perfect Days” got positive notices at Cannes but I doubt Japan would choose a foreign director (Oscar nominee Wim Wenders) and they’ve never gone for a Takeshi Kitano film.

12. KAZAKHSTAN- “Final Judgment” Kazakhstan usually sends films that showcase national heroes, Kazakh history and Soviet atrocities against Central Asian people, although they’ve gone with more “modern” tales the past two years. As usual, they have quite an open competition and I’m not sure what to predict. For now, I’m going with “Final Judgment ”, an upcoming film by a prominent arthouse director about a Kazakh author targeted by brutal Stalinist purges. In second place, I have Qas” (aka “Qash”), a film about the devastating Soviet-engineered famine that killed over a million people in the 1930s. Kazakhstan selected a similar film in 2020. I’m not sure if that will help or hurt the film but “Qash”, which won a New Talent award in Shanghai, seems to be a much more personal story than the larger-scale “The Crying Steppe”. Two well-reviewed festival favorites from last year- “Happiness” (Berlinale, Panorama Audience Award) and “Scheme” (Berlinale, 14+ Grand Prix) finally got released in Kazakhstan in February and July 2023 respectively and “Happiness” was sent to the Golden Globes last year. Both films would be great choices but they highlight social problems that the Kazakh Academy may not like (domestic violence and teen delinquency). There were also two Kazakh films in competition at their national Film Festival (Eurasia), namely crime drama “Brothers”, and “Storm”, a Soviet-era melodrama about a traveler who accidentally ends up crossing the Chinese border during a storm. Lastly, we have “Ademoka’s Education”, a dramedy about a Tajik migrant, one of three 2022 releases by prolific, award-winning Adilkhan Yerzhanov who had a film sent for the first time in 2021. Highly unlikely: “Balaban” may be the best-reviewed Kazakh film of the year, but I find it unlikely they’ll select an LGBT-themed film (although last year Morocco and Pakistan did….so who knows?)

13. KOREA- “Cobweb” NOTE: I wrote this the day before the Korean announcement. KOREA selected "Concrete Utopia" 

The Korean Film Council (KOFIC) announced on July 25^th that they would be considering 13 films to represent South Korea at the Oscars next year, with a strong emphasis on action movies and thrillers.  I think three of the films have no chance (poorly reviewed Afghanistan rescue movie “The Point Men”, serial killer thriller “Target” and action drama “Ransomed”) but here are my rankings for the other ten:

1, Cobweb- A “meta”, original story centered on a film-within-a-film….it has good reviews, the strongest buzz on the list, an Out-of-Competition berth at Cannes, starpower (“Parasite” star Song Kang-ho) and is made by a popular director who was picked once before in 2016.

2. The Moon- A hotly anticipated, big-budget (by Korean standards) space survival drama about a Korean astronaut accidentally abandoned on the moon…that I think American audiences will like. 

3. Road to Boston: 1947- A period drama by a respected director who hasn’t been picked since 2004 (“Taegukgi”). Recently, Korea has sent a lot of films about Korean history and this film about Korean marathon runners, has a U.S. hook and an opportunity to bash Japan…both pluses for Korea.

4. Concrete Utopia- A disaster movie about the survivors of an earthquake that destroys most of Seoul. It has the best reviews of the summer blockbusters. 

5. Sleep- A creepy thriller that played at Cannes Critics Week, about a pregnant woman and her sleepwalking husband (“Parasite”’s Lee Sun-kyun), whose sleepwalking habits begin to threaten mother and baby. Good reviews but it’s the feature debut of a young, unknown director and would be an odd genre pick.

6 Hopeless- A violent crime drama about a young man who gets involved with organized crime. It played at Cannes Un Certain Regard, and it fits the violent noir preferences of the Korean Academy. Reviews are good though not the best on the list.

7. The Hill of Secrets- A small, well-reviewed drama that played in the 14+ Section of Berlinale but looks too small to compete here. 

8. Smugglers- A commercial box office hit by the director of “Escape from Mogadishu”. 

9. Hero- A mix of political biopic and musical opera….It’s said to be an acquired taste and may not appeal to Western audiences….though the director has come close to being picked several times, and they may feel he’s overdue.

10. The Devil’s Deal- A political corruption thriller. It’s already available on streaming platforms in the U.S.

14. KYRGYZSTAN- “This is What I Remember” Kyrgyzstan’s most important director is Aktan Arym Kubat. He’s made five feature films in his native Kyrgyzstan (plus one more in neighboring Kazakhstan) since the country joined the Oscar competition in 1997, and the first four were sent to Hollywood….so it would be foolish to bet against #5- “This Is What I Remember”- that played at the Tokyo Film Festival in 2022. It’s a film about an old man with amnesia who returns to his family in Kyrgyzstan after years abroad working in Russia. Last year, I predicted “The Scent of Wormwood” after it was selected for Busan…but it didn’t premiere in Kyrgyzstan until 2023. It’s a well-reviewed family drama set in a small village, just likely most of the Kyrgyz submissions… so it’s a close second place.

15. LAOS- “The Signal” Laos submitted a spooky horror-drama once in 2017 and I’m hoping they return this year with another of the same genre- “The Signal” (Shanghai). This is another supernaturally tinged drama, this time about a young woman uncovering family secrets while searching for her missing father.

16. MALAYSIA- “Imaginur” Malaysia skipped last year after sending films three years in a row (2019-2021). The two sci-fi/fantasy films I predicted as the frontrunners last year- “The Stone Turtle” and “Imaginur”- actually got released at home in 2023, and they’re strong contenders to represent Malaysia this year. You can add peculiar Islamic body horror “Tiger Stripes”, a surprise winner at Cannes Critics Week, “Malbatt: Misi Bakara”, an action movie about Malaysian soldiers in Somalia and reportedly the most expensive Malaysian film ever made, and interracial romance “Maryam” (Rotterdam). I hate picking the same film two years in a row but “Imaginur”, a thoroughly original sci-fi flick about time and memory, has the best reviews. I have “Tiger Stripes” in second place. 

17. MONGOLIA- “If Only I Could Hibernate” Set during Mongolia’s bitter winter, coming-of-age drama “If Only I Could Hibernate” is sure to be selected. It’s gotten great reviews for Mongolia’s Cannes feature debut, about a bright 15-year old who is forced to help take care of his family in light of his widowed mother’s worsening alcoholism. But Mongolia also has Down’s Syndrome drama “Trio” (Warsaw, Tallinn Black Nights), “City of Wind” (Toronto), a coming-of-age movie, and upcoming big-budget action film “Wolf Warriors”, set in 800 BC and directed by Erdenebileg Ganbold who made “The Steed”, one of the best Oscar submissions ever to fail to make the shortlist.

18. NEPAL- “Jaari” Nepal tends to select social dramas and this year’s “Jaari” was such a critical and box-office hit that it will be difficult to ignore. The film, about a dysfunctional marriage set amidst the country’s minority Limbu community, is the 4^th highest-grossing Nepali film of all time, and the #1 film that’s not a comedy sequel. Other films with a chance: “Fulbari”, about a family whose matriarch falls ill, “Neerphool”, about a family reunion in the country’s minority Buddhist Tamang community, and “Bahaab”, about a young girl trying to avoid an arranged marriage. “A Road to a Village”, about a remote village that becomes connected to “modern Nepal” when a new road is built, will have its world premiere in Toronto. It looks great and I predict it will represent Nepal next year. 

19. NEW ZEALAND- “We Are Still Here” New Zealand has sent seven films in the twelve years since they’ve been invited to the International Oscar competition, sending five films in Pacific Island languages plus two documentaries made abroad (in Afghanistan and China) by documentary filmmaker Pietra Brettkelly. This year, I predict they send “We Are Still Here”, an anthology of eight indigenous short films from various parts of Oceania. It got a NZ cinematic release in February 2023, although it could also potentially represent Australia. Next year, they have a big-budget Maori historical epic- “Ka Whawhai Tonu” that will almost certainly be selected.

20. PAKISTAN- “In Flames” I was so sad that Pakistan failed to be nominated last year for “Joyland”…It was my favorite film on the shortlist last year, and think it likely came in sixth place (though it could also have been ‘good but not great’ thriller “Decision to Leave”). Pakistan’s Oscar committee, chaired by two-time Oscar winner Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy, is one of the world’s most courageous, regularly selecting challenging, controversial films that anger religious conservatives. They also have a demonstrated preference for festival favorites, which is why I’m predicting Cannes Director’s Fortnight horror film “In Flames”, a mother-daughter drama co-produced with Canada.  In second place, I have “Madaari” (aka “The Monkey Dance”), a revenge crime drama. Since they like to court controversy, they could select “Kukri”, the biopic of an infamous child killer which has been banned in certain parts of the country. They don’t usually choose “local” films but if they don’t like these three entries, they could consider short-film anthology “Teri Meri Kahaniyaan” or crime drama “John".

2121. PHILIPPINES- "Ang Duyan ng Magiting" The Philippines is always a tricky one to predict because their mood changes often. Of their past ten submissions, four premiered at major festivals (Venice and Cannes) and four were low-budget "indies" selected from the local Cinemalaya Film Festival. Just one submission came from their more commercial and well-known Metro Manila Film Festival, plus one was a big-budget commercial release ("Heneral Luna"). If they want an arthouse festival film, their main option is “When the Waves are Gone” another 3-hour plus opus from Lav Diaz. Too long for me. “Waves” managed a Best Picture nomination at the Asian Film Awards (losing to “Drive My Car”, another overlong movie), becoming only the second-ever Filipino movie to do so. Lav has a second film at Venice this year but it’s both unlikely to get a local release in time and a prequel to “Waves”, so sending the original would make more sense. If they want a Cinemalaya film, they could look pick this year’s surprise winner, anime drama “Iti-Mapukpukaw” or multi-strand anthology “Ang Duyan ng Magiting” (Jury Prize and Best Ensemble), both co-starring Dolly DeLeon from “Triangle of Sadness”. Most of the eight films from Metro Manila last year had poisonously bad reviews and even the winner- horror film “Deleted”- wasn’t very well reviewer. Only “Family Matters”- about a family taking care of their severely ill father- looks likely to be considered for the Oscars. Finally, Jun Lana- who made “Bwakaw”, the best Filipino submission I’ve ever seen- has two new movies- “Your Mother’s Son”, due to premiere at Toronto in September, and “About Us But Not About Us”, a tense thriller about secrets revealed between a professor and his student over the course of a dinner. My prediction for now is “Ang Duyan ng Magiting”, followed closely by “Iti-Mapukpukaw ”, “When the Waves are Gone”, “Your Mother’s Son” and “Family Matters”. 

22. SINGAPORE- “Tomorrow Is A Long Time” Tiny Singapore had three premieres at major festivals in 2023, so they’ll surely send one of those. While most people are expecting Anthony Chen’s “The Breaking Ice” (Cannes), I predict it will be “Tomorrow Is A Long Time” (Berlin), which has a lower profile but better reviews. Anthony Chen, who is only 39, has already been selected twice and Singapore may want to spread the wealth. “Tomorrow”, about a young man growing up and entering military service while living with his violent, working-class father, is also a much more local effort than “Breaking Ice”, which is set on the China-North Korea border. The third option- “Dreaming & Dying”- just premiered in Locarno.  

23. SRI LANKA- “Peacock Lament” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009. If they choose to return this year, I imagine it will be “Peacock Lament”, which won an award in Tokyo. It’s the story of how poverty drives good people to do terrible things, as a man who supports his entire family becomes involved with child trafficking. Controversial director Visakesa Chandrasekaram won a Jury Prize in Rotterdam for “Sand” but I’m pretty sure that they won’t pick a movie in Tamil to represent them.

24. TAIWAN- “The Abandoned” Taiwan doesn’t have any really strong contenders so far this year and I’m expecting they may send some late release that we haven’t heard of yet. But for now, I’m predicting mystery-thriller “The Abandoned”, about a suicidal woman who becomes embroiled in a mystery when she finds the corpse of a young Thai woman who may have been murdered by a serial killer. Timing would be good; it’s getting released in September, a year after its premiere at the Taipei Film Festival. Other options (in order): “Day Off”, a drama about an aging hairdresser ; “Eye of the Storm” follows a hospital forced to undergo a sudden lockdown, trapping hundreds of doctors, patients and staff together indefinitely; “Pierce”, an intense family drama that hasn’t been released yet; and possibly even “Marry My Dead Body”, a supernatural gay-themed comedy that has been quite popular in Taiwan. Two strong contenders (“Gaga” and “Coo-Coo-043”) appear to have been released too early.

25. TAJIKISTAN- “Fortune” Tajikistan hasn’t sent a film since 2005, which means they’ve been absent from the Oscars longer than any country in the region (tied with Fiji). Their last submission was made by an Iranian director in Tajikistan since the countries speak the same language and there is a great deal more artistic freedom in Tajikistan. There’s a similar film- “Melody”- this year, about a woman who teaches music at a home for children with cancer. But most of the cast and crew are Iranian, so I’ll predict crime drama “Fortune”, about a pair of cops who win the lottery. UPDATE: Tajikistan is back in the race for the Oscars! They selected “Melody”.

26. THAILAND- “Khun Pan 3” Thailand doesn’t have any strong contenders this year but they’ve been a regular participant since 2000 and they use this competition to promote their national cinema, so I’m sure they’ll find something. In the past ten years, they’ve sent four horror movies (probably more than any other country), three arthouse dramas, and three romantic “soap operas”…so that gives you an idea of what they like. They haven’t held their National Film Awards since 2021 so that useful precursor is unavailable. If they want a horror film, it will probably be “Home for Rent”, about murderous tenants terrorizing their landlord. If they want an arthouse film, it could be “Blue Again” (Busan), a three-hour coming-of-age film about an interracial teen (it looks like a mess)….If they want a soap opera, they have twin teen romance “You & Me & Me”….I was planning on predicting “The Murderer”, a murder-mystery-comedy with a Netflix deal by acclaimed director Wisit Sasantieng who has never been sent to the Oscars (he directed my favorite Thai film “Citizen Dog”, as well as the better-known “Tears of the Black Tiger”). But reviews have been middling. Thriller “Hunger” and well-liked sports comedy “Fast & Feel Love” also have Netflix deals….and some are saying “Hunger” is the favorite…..But I’m predicting none of these. I think, in this relatively weak year, Thailand will go with the high production values of big-budget sequel “Khun Pan 3”, the all-star finale of a popular action series, which is said to be the best of the trilogy.. If “Once Upon A Star”, an ode to cinema directed by Nonzee Nimbutr (“Nang Nak”), another popular director who has never been selected, I would move it to the top. But I think it will be eligible next year. In the end, I predict “Khun Pan”, followed by “Blue Again”, “Fast & Feel Love”, “Hunger” and “Home for Rent” rounding out the Top 5.

27. UZBEKISTAN- “Alteration” Uzbekistan has only submitted two films and one was directed by Yalkin Tuychiev. Tuychiev had a new movie at Busan 2022, where it won the new Jiseok Award for established Asian directors. So, I’m predicting “Alteration”, about an Uzbek man- a veteran of the Soviet Afghan War- and his life over the course of decades through Uzbek independence, to the present-day. It also represented Uzbekistan in the “Best Central Asian Film” category in neighboring Kyrgyzstan’s national film awards.

28. VIETNAM- “Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell” Vietnam has two arthouse films on the film festival circuit this year, namely three-hour “Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell”, which won the Camera d’Or at Cannes Director’s Fortnight, and “Glorious Ashes” (Tokyo), about three women living in a rural Mekong River community. I hate slow, overlong arthouse dramas…but I’m predicting “Yellow Cocoon Shell”. However, the Vietnamese Academy almost always surprises by choosing more commercial efforts, including gonzo martial arts films (2019 and 2022) and local comedies (2018 and 2021). So, feminist martial arts movie “Furies” (directed by Veronica Ngo) or family dramedy “The House of No Man” could make it. 

Others?

TURKMENISTAN, which previously banned cinema after independence, is the only former Soviet republic that has never ended the Oscar competition. This year, they’ve had an interesting film on the film festival circuit called “The Red Kurta”, about a bride who gets married without seeing the groom and who insists on wearing her red wedding dress until he returns from war.