ASIA-PACIFIC PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here are the 29 candidates from the Asia-Pacific region....Last year, a record 22 of these countries sent films, though AMPAS mysteriously disqualified 5- Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan and Thailand.  

 

Afghanistan- “No Good Men” Afghanistan, which is now sadly back under barbaric Taliban rule, hasn’t sent a film since 2019. I hope they return one day, possibly with a selection committee “in exile”, since their filmmakers continue to work and make excellent films while living abroad. This year, it would be wonderful to have “No Good Men”, a dramedy filmed in Germany about a modern careerwoman working at a local TV station, in the race. Described as a (sort of) Afghan rom-com, it’s directed by Shahrbanoo Sadat, who is one of the country’s leading female filmmakers.

Australia- “First Light” Obviously most Australian movies are made in English but they’ve participated in this Oscar category more or less regularly since 2006. Although you’d expect they’d mostly send films in native Aboriginal languages, they haven’t sent one since “Charlie’s Country” in 2014. Since then, Australia has sent films made by Aussie directors in some of the world’s most far-flung places- Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Italy, Macedonia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vanuatu, as well as the Persian community in Melbourne. This year, they could add Palestine or the Philippines to that list, by sending either Gaza aid worker documentary “Until the Sky Falls Quiet” or “First Light”, a moral dilemma drama (I love these!) about a Filipino nun who witnesses a fatal accident.  They could also return to Mongolia for the second year in a row with “Iron Winter”, a documentary about efforts to save a herd of horses during a particularly brutal Mongolian winter. Any of these are possible, but I have a hunch the fiction feature will beat out the documentaries. Dark horse: “Ripples in the Mist”, about two Hong Kong women living in Australia by Clara Law, who made Australia’s first-ever Oscar submission thirty years ago.

Bangladesh- “Master” Bangladesh has had a good film year and they usually send something interesting to promote their national cinema. I see a total of seven option....In alphabetical order: (1)- “Blind Girl & an Elephant” (Shanghai), about three girls trying to escape their superstitious village, (2)- “Bonolota Express”, a box-office smash adventure-comedy with very good reviews, (3)- “Delupi” (Rotterdam), a small environmental drama about rural flooding, (4)- “Master” (Rotterdam), a political thriller about an honest man who becomes tainted by local politics, (5)- “Roid” (Rotterdam again), about a rural man dealing with a mentally ill wife, (6)- “Sand City” (Karlovy Vary/Busan), about two strangers who collect sand (?), and (7)- “The University of Chankrapul”, a political satire featuring cutthroat university politics. Variety called “Master” a  ‘gripping drama’ and Deadline called it the first Bangladeshi film to win a major award at a European festival. I think the Bangladeshi Academy is brave enough to send something a bit political….It’s definitely their best option if it gets a cinematic release somewhere and it's the one I hope to see representing Bangladesh at the Oscars. “Roid”, whose director has been picked before for “Hawa”, will likely be runner-up with mega-hit “Bonolota” in third. I can confirm those have screened at cinemas. 

Bhutan- “The Debt Call” “Dobchu”, the hit horror film that dominated Bhutan’s 2026 Film Awards was released in last year’s cycle so it's not eligible. Bhutan doesn’t usually submit to the Oscars unless they have a film on the international film festival circuit...but if they do send a film this year, it’s like to be “Pindarikaa” (which looks pretty gorgeous), which looks like some sort of swords-and-sorcery action movie, or “The Debt Call”, a  gritty drama about a rape victim who abandons her baby. “Debt Call” got screened in Australia which means it definitely has the subtitles necessary to be submitted, so that’s my prediction.

Cambodia- “Becoming Human” Cambodia didn’t have any festival films last year so they sent a flawed but fun and very creepy horror movie before it was disqualified for unknown reasons. This year, they’ll probably choose between two festival films- Rithy Panh’s ethno-environmental documentary “We Are the Fruits of the Forest” (Berlin/Tokyo) and supernatural drama “Becoming Human” (Busan/Shanghai). They usually pick the Oscar-nominated Panh but I have a hunch that the more visible “Becoming Human”, about a female ghost who is faced with the difficult choice of earthly haunting or rebirth, will get this. I have family dramas “The Old Man” and “Me & My Brother” as unlikely runner-ups.

China- “I Know Who You Are” The Chinese Academy changed tactics last year - instead of sending a terrible film, they sent a good one. Sure “Dead to Rights” was a nationalist war film, but it looked great, was well-made and acted and, most importantly, filmed with an adult audience in mind. This was a shift from terrible big-budget action sequels “Wandering Earth 2” and “Wolf Warrior 2” or cute but inappropriate Oscar entries like kiddie anime “Ne Zha”.  China is notoriously difficult to predict but I see the two frontrunners as expensive martial arts period piece “Blades of the Guardians” and regime drama “I Know Who You Are”, which is directed by Feng Xiaogang (previously picked for “Aftershock” and “Back to 1942”) which covers 40 years of Chinese history. “I Know Who You Are” looks stronger on paper, although it was reportedly a flop at the box-office. “Blades of the Guardians” looks like the sort of big-budget action movie China has generally picked in recent years (and it’s already been released on Amazon, which I think helps) but although it was made in China, in Mandarin Chinese, by a Mainland film studio, it’s talent is mainly from Hong Kong…so HK may claim it instead. Two other possibilities from this land of one billion people- Teochew melodrama “Dear You” (aka “A Letter to Grandma”), a tearjerker with no stars that has unexpectedly become China’s top box-office hit of the year, though I’m not sure China will select a film in a regional Chinese dialect; and abstract sci-fi drama “Resurrection” (Cannes 2025) has gotten mostly great reviews…. but it’s much more arthouse than we’ve seen from China in years. Three other potential frontrunners have been sidelined – 17^th century period epic “The Belief” was supposed to be China’s summer blockbuster but it was mysteriously pulled from cinemas before its premiere; “Living the Land” won Best Director in Berlin 2025, and was approved by the Chinese censors…but it has been the subject of a nationalist backlash and hasn’t actually made it to cinemas; and “Scare Out”, a thriller by the usually reliable Oscar nominee Zhang Yimou, has received absolutely poisonous reviews from critics. I’m probably way off….but I’m predicting “I Know Who You Are” for now.

Fiji- “Adi” Fiji sent a movie once, way back in 2005 but they don’t have a developed national film industry and rarely make films. However, there has been buzz about the first entirely Fijian-language film, “Adi”, about a woman called on to perform the traditional duties of a male chief. Would make a great second entry. 

Hong Kong- “Blades of the Guardians” So, the Hong Kong Academy usually sends either action movies or moody melodramas. If they go “action” this year, then I was sure “The Furious” would be their pick...until it was pointed out to me that it contains too much English to qualify. Though it's one of their best-reviewed and most exciting action movies in years, that's not allowed. So I'm switching my prediction to big-budget action movie “Blades of the Guardians”, set in the 7th century reputed to cost over $100 million though that could also be claimed by CHINA. Director Yuen Woo-ping, now 80, is a Hong Kong and Hollywood institution who started out with Jackie Chan and ended up working on everything from "The Matrix" to "Kung Fu Hustle". This would be a nice way to honor him. The critically maligned crime drama “Sons of the Neon Night” is supposed to be a very beautifully made film and it won most of the tech awards at this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards where it also got a Best Picture nomination…so someone must like it?? If they want “melodrama”, then the frontrunners are “Afterpiece” (Shanghai), which looks like a Cantonese “Sentimental Value”; and “Cyclone”, a transgender tale that closed the HK Film Festival. There’s also “Ciao UFO”, a drama that swept this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards (Film, Director and Screenplay), plus quirky reincarnation anime “Another World”, showing off Chinese animation in a genre traditionally dominated by Japan. Based on the Hong Kong Academy’s preferences, I think the popular “Blades of the Guardians” will be picked, though growing buzz for “Afterpiece”, which is in Hong Kong's preferred Cantonese dialect (language) of Chinese...could elevate that film to the top. I have “Another World”, which arguably has the best reviews, in third and "Cyclone" in fourth.

India- TBD This will take too long. "Homebound" was shortlisted last year which means the stubborn Indian selection committee may have learned that (1)- films from major festivals do well and (2)- it helps to have a strong U.S. backer (like Martin Scorsese) helps. However, India didn't have many films at major festivals this year (certainly none with the gravitas of "Homebound") and I don't know of any Indian films with a Hollywood backer. "Ramayana" looks promising...but it won't premiere until November. They've picked Hindi-language "Bollywood" predictions two years in a row, so regional films may have the edge. I'll do this one later. 

Indonesia- “Four Seasons in Java”  Indonesia is difficult to predict because the Indonesian Academy chooses from a very diverse range of films….In the past eight years they’ve sent a gory horror film, a commercial Netflix comedy, a popular sci-fi romance based on a web-series, a political thriller, a Tarantino-esque feminist thriller, an LGBT drama that upset Islamists, and two arthouse dramas. Six out of eight were chosen from the major international film festivals, but two had virtually no play at all. The national Citra Awards are the best precursor….four of these submissions won Best Picture while the other four were nominated (though most of this year’s contenders will be eligible for this year’s awards so it doesn't help at all). As the world’s fourth-largest country, Indonesia has plenty of films to choose from, but I see the five leading candidates (in alphabetical order) as (1)- “Four Seasons in Java” (Toronto 2026), (2)- “Ghost in the Cell” (Berlin Forum 2026), (3)- “Levitating” (Sundance), (4)- “Nobody Loves Kay”, and (5)- “On Your Lap”  (Busan), which also won Best Picture at the 2025 Citra Awards. Joko Anwar (“Ghost in the Cell”) and Kamila Andrini (“Four Seasons in Java”) are both seeking to be picked a second time - something only two Indonesian directors have achieved before. I’m putting my money on Kamila and “Four Seasons”, which is about a sexual assault survivor who faces an angry community after being released from prison for killing her attacker. While nobody has seen it yet, Andrini impressed with “Yuni” and the well-timed late release in Toronto could provide the buzz to win. However, it is scheduled to be released in October so it would need a qualifying run. If not "Seasons", it seems likely Indonesia will pick Citra Award winner “On Your Lap”, a social drama about the “hostess” industry, or maybe Anwar’s crazy “Ghost in the Cell”, a supernatural-prison-drama-action-musical-horror-comedy (?!?!!), about a violent prison facing off against a ghost. I have “Levitating” in 4^th and “Kay” in 5^th. Dark horses include husband-and-wife thriller “Dopamine” (which I really want to see), and a local remake of Iranian Oscar nominee “Children of Heaven”.

Japan- “All of a Sudden” Japan loves Cannes. In the past eight years, they got six of their submissions from Cannes (the exceptions were anime “Weathering with You” and thriller “Cloud”, both of which were surprises and poor choices). This year, the preference for Cannes will help five films- Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden”,  Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Sheep in the Box” and Koji Fukada’s “Nagi Notes” (all of which were in the Main Competition”), plus Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s “The Samurai and the Prisoner” and the far less high-profile “All the Lovers in the Night”, starring Tadanobu Asano. The Hamaguchi film definitely has the best reviews but it’s mostly in French...and I’m not sure how the Japanese will feel about that….I think it will be okay because it's not like "Sacred Fig" or "Mustang"...the film does have three lead Japanese actors....so I expect it’s okay. Kurosawa is #2 for his samurai "Knives Out"…but he was picked just two years ago and the Japanese Academy rarely repeats directors so soon. But Japan makes odd choices sometimes (look at “Cloud”) and there are a lot of other choices. Puzzle mystery “Bakudan”, referred to as the Japanese “Seven”, was a huge hit; teen runaway drama “Burn” (Sundance) also sold out cinemas; Hirokazu Koreeda's “Look Back”, about two mismatched guys brought together by a love of manga will premiere in Venice and will be Koreeda’s second contender of the year; and “Tokyo Taxi” is a sweet little drama about an elderly woman and a taxi driver, which could be the final film of 94-year old Yoji Yamada, who has made 91 feature films and represented Japan at the Oscars five times (including the Oscar-nominated “Twilight Samurai”). One possible final candidate is “Godzilla Minus Zero”. I was ready to predict “Godzilla” because Takashi Yamazaki is a respected director who has never been picked for the Oscars (he should have been picked for “Always: Sunset on Third Street”, which was somehow snubbed by the sweet but forgettable “Hula Girls”) even though he’s an Oscar winner for “Godzilla Minus Zero”. The problem is that it’s not expected to be released until November and a blockbuster like this isn’t the sort of film that you can arrange a 7-day secret release for….This is hard. I think the finalists will be “All of a Sudden”, “Look Back” and maybe “Godzilla”...with “Burn” if they’re looking to reward somebody new. I hated “Drive My Car” so it pains me to say this, but I’m predicting Hamaguchi, followed by Koreeda's "Look Back". 

Kazakhstan- “Turgaud” Last year, Kazakhstan was disqualified because of a conflict-of-interest issue, because the selection committee chose horror film “Cadet” even though cinematographer Yerkinbek Ptyraliyev was part of the committee. I’m actually very unsure of what Kazakhstan will send this year. Their best option would appear to be “Turgaud”, a violent Tarantino-esque “neo-western” about mafia loyalty, directed by Adilkhan Yerzhanov. But the Kazakh Academy has an odd relationship with Yerzhanov…It’s true that he was picked in 2021 and 2025 (he directed “Cadet”) but he submitted a very well-reviewed film for consideration in 2023 and Kazakhstan decided to send nothing rather than send it to the Oscars. Yerzhanov is incredibly prolific and makes 1-2 movies each year. If they don’t want to pick him again so soon, they could go with doping/swimming drama “Becoming” (Locarno), counterterrorism biopic “Capitan Baitasov”, mother-daughter drama “Malika” (Busan) or dark social media parable “Sicko”….Finally, they could arrange a qualifying release for big Communist-era epic “The Nomad’s Legacy”, directed by Maria Kunarova (“The Crying Steppe”) and which is scheduled for a domestic release in November.  It’s one of the more wide-open races in Asia this year…For now, I’ll predict “Turgaud” (which is probably what they should send), with “Sicko” (which also looks great) and “Malika” as the most likely runner-ups.

Korea- “Possible Love” South Korea has had a relatively quiet year which makes it all the more strange that they asked for submissions so incredibly early (June 19), making it difficult for films scheduled for a fall release to qualify. The proof? In 2023, there were 14 films submitted, in 2024, 15 and in 2025, 19. This year, there were just six. Three of them are sci-fi/horror films (“Colony”, “Hope” and “Salmokji”) and this committee generally dislikes that. The others include a noir crime drama (“Project Y”), an obscure documentary (“Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema”) and one drama (“Possible Love”). “Possible Love” is directed by Lee Chang-dong, an aging auteur director, former Minister of Culture, three-time Palme d’Or nominee, Venice Silver Lion winner and the first-ever Korean director to make the Oscar shortlist (for “Burning”). “Possible Love” and has been announced for the Main Line-up at Venice. In such an exceptionally weak year, "Possible Loves" will clearly be selected. For the record, it’s a 3-hour drama about the intersecting lives of four strangers. So, in order….

1.      1. Possible Love (Venice, Main Competition)....which could actually go to the Oscars automatically if it wins Venice, giving a second spot to....

      2. Hope (Cannes Main Competition), a genre-bending monster movie featuring cameos by Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander (Letterboxd: 3.3)

M  3. Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema, an obscure (vanity?) documentary featuring the 85-year old founder of the Busan Film Festival visiting cinemas, and meeting with some very high-profile international directors (including Lee Chang-dong!) (Letterboxd: 3.3)

3.     4. Colony (Cannes, Midnight Screening), high-concept zombie/mutant virus movie (Letterboxd: 3.3)

5.    5. Project Y (Toronto/Busan) A female noir heist thriller that nobody seems to love (Letterboxd: 2.9)

6.     6. Salmokji, a horror movie with middling reviews (Letterboxd: 2.7)

Kyrgyzstan- “Kurak” In my opinion, the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan may be the best film-making country that has never been nominated. Though they have few resources or funds for PR, they submit solid films year after year. This year, they have no less than four films at major international film festivals- “Backstage Madness” (Tallinn Black Nights), “Kurak” (Busan), “Mergen” (Rotterdam) and “Skylark” (Shanghai), plus the sequel to the record-breaking box-office hit “Paradise at Mother’s Feet 2” which was sent to the Oscars in 2024. This is probably between (1)- “Kurak”, a drama about the Kyrgyz women’s rights movement, fighting against long-standing gender-based violence and patriarchy, and (2) “Paradise 2”, a religiously themed Islamic drama sequel that would probably be a poor choice. “Skylark”, which premiered a few weeks ago and which would be the first film directed by a Kyrgyz woman to be submitted, is a potential dark horse. It’s a “coming-of-age village drama”…and the Kyrgyz have sent a lot of these over the years!

Laos- “Kong Koi” (aka "Wrecked") Laos sent a single horror film to the Oscars in 2017. I know of two domestic releases this year, neither of which seems likely to convinced them to come back. Horror film “Kong Koi” is about a female ghost from Thai/Lao mythology that haunts the jungle on one leg, while “Philo: For Love” seems to be some sort of kidnapping thriller. I vote for “Kong Koi”.

Malaysia- “Khadam” Malaysia began submitting regularly to the Oscars in 2019. This year, they have a number of options and no obvious frontrunner. Malaysia used to unofficially only consider films in Malay, the country’s official language, even though the country’s most acclaimed films usually came from the Chinese minority. That has now changed. I see the three frontrunners (in alphabetical order) as “Badak” (Netflix), “Fox King” (Toronto/Busan 2025) and “Khadam”. Father-daughter drama “Badak” sounds a bit like a cross between “Coda” and “Gully Boy”, as a young female rapper seeks to start a music career over the objections of her working-class (and deaf!) father. The director, a Singaporean Malay, previously represented Singapore for “La Luna”.  Domestically, reviews have been good and most of Malaysia’s recent selections had Netflix backing so this is a strong possibility. “Fox King”, a coming-of-age drama about two twin brothers more or less abandoned by their father after his re-marriage, has festival cred from Toronto and Busan. But the Southeast Asians love their scary movies (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand have all sent full-on horror films to the Oscars) and “Khadam” is the best-reviewed one of the year. It's a slow-burn horror film about a woman facing off against a supernatural entity that is targeting her young daughter. “Macai” (Rotterdam), a crime-thriller about the country’s Tamil Indian community, is a potential dark horse, as is “Mother Bhumi” (starring Fan Bingbing!), although director Keat Aun Chong was selected last year. I think “Khadam” is going to Hollywood.

Mongolia- “Colors of White Rock” Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia almost always sends fantastic films to the Oscars year after year without any recognition. I am always very excited to see their entry…I’ve seen all of them and they haven’t sent a bad one yet…The strongest (“The Steed”) deserved an Oscar nomination and even the weakest (“Veins of the World”) was just fine. This year, Mongolia seems to have three possibilities from major festivals –  dramas “The Muralist” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Unopened Letter” (Moscow) and documentary “Colors of White Rock” (Tribeca) - plus a drama called “Hello Mother”.  The director of “The Muralist” was picked last year for the wonderful original “Silent City Driver” (which won Tallinn 2024) so I think they’ll spread the wealth and give this to “Colors of White Rock”, a documentary about the life of a female long-haul truck driver – one of the few in macho Mongolia, with “The Muralist” as the runner-up. But it could logically be any of these four. 

Nepal- “Elephants in the Fog” Every year, there is one country whose submission process is a shit show. Last year was Nepal, where jealous filmmakers trashed the selection of women’s football drama “Anjila” after a brief selection process that coincided with domestic unrest. With a Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize for transgender tale “Elephants in the Fog”, hopefully this year will be easier for Nepal. The film is getting a domestic release in September (possibly to coincide with the Oscar deadline?) and has very good reviews, so this should be an easy win for them. If they do choose to send a more “commercial” social drama (as they often do), expect child marriage drama “Gauthali” or family drama “Aa Bata Aama” to be in the running.

New Zealand- “Crocodile” New Zealand was a regular participant in this category from 2011-2018, sending films mostly in Pacific languages (Maori and Samoan) but also Persian and Chinese. Since then, they’ve only sent one film, despite a number of very good options…so it seems they don’t see this category as a priority anymore, unlike neighboring Australia. Two previously submitted directors have new films this year who could potentially get the Kiwis to fill out the paperwork- Pietra Brettkelly’s crazy cell phone documentary “Crocodile” (in Nigerian Pidgin) and Tearepa Kahi’s war docudrama “Sgt. Haane” (in Maori)…but both of those could be more than 50% in English. I’m not sure. PNG environmental documentary “Sukundimi Walks Before Me” would be a safer choice. But since Brettkelly has been picked twice and got screened at Berlinale, that’s my prediction.

Pakistan- “Ghost School” While their neighbors in India and Nepal squabble over their Oscar choices, Pakistan’s committee consistently sends solid entries whenever they can....in a delightfully eclectic mix of genres, ranging from social dramas and comedies, to animation and horror. “Joyland” deserved to be nominated; “Circus of Life” probably deserved to win. They didn’t really have anything last year and so they skipped, but I think they will be back this year with one of their two films on the festival circuit, “Lali” (Berlin Panorama) or “Ghost School” (Toronto/Berlin 14+).  Family drama “Lali”, about a newly married woman whose previous three fiancees have died, is by the director of “Circus of Life”, so I have very high hopes. But “Ghost School”, a mystery about a young girl trying to solve the mystery of why her local school was suddenly closed, has slightly better reviews. Dark horse: neither of the two frontrunners has had a cinematic release yet (apparently "Ghost School" was banned in Sindh but cleared censors in Punjab, but hasn't screened in either state) so they could consider the dark action-comedy “Aag Lagay Basti Mein”…They picked a similar film in 2019.

Papua New Guinea- “Sereva: A Papuan Tale” Papua New Guinea tried to make its Oscar debut last year but well-meaning ethnic road movie “Papa Buka” was mysteriously disqualified for unknown reasons. While the film was clearly a debut effort, it was a great showcase for emerging Pacific cinema. I doubt they’ll return this year, but they did make an open call for submissions again. If they do, it could be “Sereva: A Papuan Tale”, a feature documentary made by an Italian director about a rural boy’s quest to build a canoe.

Philippines- "Filipiñana" The Philippines has one of the most confusing races of the year though I finally settled on “Filipiñana”, just because it really has played almost everywhere since its premiere earlier this year in both Sundance (where it won a Special Jury Award) and Berlin and because it got a U.S. distributor (Kino Lorber) that would theoretically help the cash-strapped country promote its film. It’s a dark comedy and class satire set at an elite golf club that looks like it will resonate with both American and international audiences. It seems like it would be a good choice. Their other top candidate is “Silenced Nights”, a drama about the witness to an extrajudicial killing….a seriously hot topic in the Philippines. It is hoping to go to the Oscars automatically via the Toronto Platform Prize…so expect the Philippines to make its announcement late, after Toronto. I have a major hunch it will be one of these two films, but there are lots of other options from this nation of over 100 million. Rural land rights documentary “Bloom Where You Planted “ won Best Picture at last year’s Cinemalaya festival for indie cinema, and the Philippines have picked many of their past submissions from there; Jun Lana’s “Call Me Mother” is a dramedy about a gay man preparing to adopt the stepson he raised, but whose life turns upside down when his estranged ex decided she wants her biological child back; the animated “58^th” re-enacts the events following a 2009 massacre that shook the country, and is the latest from the director of “The Missing”, Lav Diaz’s latest heavy drama “Let Us Through, Dear Ancestors” is set to premiere in Venice (though I don’t think he’ll be picked twice in a row)….”The Loved One”, about two ex-lovers who reunite, was a major critical and box-office hit; ”Manila’s Finest”, a period drama following a 1970s murder investigation got good reviews at Metro Manila; “Quezon” is a dull-looking political biopic that has gotten lots of nominations at local awards show and finally “Raging” (Berlin) is jungle drama about a local boy investigating a plane crash.

Singapore- “We Are All Strangers” 32-year old Singaporean wunderkind Anthony Chen has been picked three times before, including for the first two films in his “Growing Up” trilogy. The third film – “We Are All Strangers” – premiered in the Main Competition at Berlin and is sure to represent the city-state.  It’s a family melodrama with very strong reviews…arguably his best since “Ilo Ilo”. Girl gang drama “Amoeba” (Toronto) also has very good reviews but probably doesn’t stand a chance against Chen. Unknown: odd sci-fi wuxia action film “The House on the Moon” is set to premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno, making two Class-A festivals for tiny Singapore.

Sri Lanka- “Riverstone” "Rihana" Sri Lanka has a fairly developed film industry but they haven’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2009. However, they announced in August that they would return. “Riverstone”, a “moral dilemma” drama about three Sri Lankan police transporting a condemned prisoner looks like their best option. It won two awards in Shanghai last year and appears to have gotten a local Sri Lankan release this past spring. I'd love to see this film bring them back but then I learned that 86-year old Chandran Rutnam has a new film ("Rihana") coming out this year starring Oscar winner Jeremy Irons as a human rights lawyer. Rutnam was picked in 2009 (the last time Sri Lanka entered) and I suspect that he helped convince Sri Lankan to rejoin. If "Rihana", the true story of a Sri Lankan maid sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia, doesn't have too much English, I suspect it's in. 

Taiwan- “A Foggy Tale” I see three main possibilities for Taiwan this year- wedding farce “Double Happiness” (Tokyo), about a man getting married at two weddings simultaneously to please his divorced parents, grim coming-of-ager “Girl” (Venice, Main Competition ’25), which is the directorial debut of actress Shu Qi, and “A Foggy Tale”, a road movie full of gallows humor set against the background of Taiwan’s “White Terror”, in which the military regime killed real or suspected political opponents. Interestingly, all three films (and last year’s Oscar-shortlisted “Left-Handed Girl”) competed against each other at the Taipei Film Festival, which features a local “Taiwanese Film Awards”. “Foggy Tale” won Film, Screenplay and three tech awards, “Double Happiness” won Director, Actor and Supporting Actor, “Left-Handed Girl” won Editing (Sean Baker!), and New Talent, while “Girl” just won a single Cinematography award. More important than the Taipei Awards is Netflix; five of their last seven Oscar submissions had Netflix deals, which bodes well for “Foggy Tale” and “Double Happiness”. In the end, I think the more serious nature of “Foggy” (plus the better reception at TFF) will play in its favor over "Double Happiness". Dark horses: It was obscure music documentary “Dance of a Soloist” that actually won the Taipei Film Festival Grand Prize, while late release “I Blew Out the Candles Before Making a Wish”, about life in Macau, has been generating some late buzz. 

Tajikistan- “Fish on a Hook” Poor Tajikistan has the worst luck at the Oscars. They submitted a very good film (“Sex & Philosophy”) in 2005 but it was disqualified when the print didn’t arrive in Los Angeles in time. They next submitted in 2023 with “Melody”…which was disqualified because they didn’t have an approved selection committee (it was allowed to compete the following year). Last year, the charming “Black Rabbit, White Rabbit” – the best film of the three – was disqualified too, which I heard (but cannot confirm) was due to some odd music copyright violation. Only their initial 1999 submission (the excellent “Luna Papa”) made it to Hollywood unscathed. I visited Tajikistan on vacation this year and it is truly a beautiful and charming country. This year, they actually have two lovely rural dramas if they choose to remain in the competition…and I really hope they do. The first is “Fish on a Hook”, which won Best Picture at Tajikistan’s local film festival last year, and the second is “Another Birth” (Busan), made by a New York-based Tajik woman filmmaker. Both of these films about rural children make an excellent choice, and both would be the first time since “Luna Papa” that Tajikistan would be represented by a local Tajik filmmaker (the other three had Iranian directors who came to Tajikistan so they could make Persian-language films without Islamic censorship). It’s a tough decision, but I give the edge to “Fish on the Hook” since the director is Tajikistan-based and the film is an Iranian co-production like the previous three modern submissions.

Thailand- “Gohan” Like Korea, Thailand unexpectedly released an early shortlist last month…I don’t understand why they are doing this so early because there is a major advantage to seeing how late releases are received by critics....and because new films are often slated for release at the last minute. In any case, the eight finalists include three festival/“arthouse” entries- “Human Resource” (Venice Horizzonti/Busan), “Nine Temples to Heaven” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight) and “Regretfully at Dawn” (Busan), four “commercial entries”- “Four Tigers”, “Gohan”, “In the Name of Love” and “The Undertaker 2: Afterlife”, plus Pen-Ek Ratunaruang’s “Morte Cucina”, a thriller vehicle for Tadanobu Asano which falls halfway between the two categories. All but action-fantasy  “In the Name of Love”, (premiering in September) have screened for critics. I see this as a race between “Human Resource”, arguably the best-reviewed of the three festival films, stray dog anthology “Gohan”, which has been touted as a successor to the Oscar-shortlisted “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” and the buzzy "Nine Temples to Heaven". Unlike other countries, Thailand usually chooses commercial audience-pleasers rather than intellectual festival films (like the slow-moving “Nine Temples to Heaven”). “Gohan” tells three stories by three different directors about how one dog affects the lives of three human families. Two of these three directors have represented Thailand at the Oscars before and the film has been a major box-office and critical success. The Venice label will certainly “Human Resource”, a well-reviewed office drama about a young Thai woman working in HR who discovers she is pregnant. Its director has also been selected before. “Nine Temples to Heaven” has the Cannes label but this dull film is said to be similar to Apichatpong Weerasethakul…who is actually not popular in Thailand. “Morte Cucina” looks great and has star-power but reviews are probably the weakest of Pen-Ek Ratanaruang’s career. “Four Tigers” has great reviews but looks too light; “Undertaker 2” is a sequel to a film most people haven’t seen….The unreleased fantasy “In the Name of Love” could certainly surprise if it’s great but I still think “Gohan” and “Human Resource” are the strongest possibilities. "Gohan"'s artistic and tonal similarities to "Grandma", which got Thailand to the shortlist for the first time, mean I'm predicting it wins....but it will be very close. 

Uzbekistan- “The Great Amir and Donna Maria” Uzbekistan sent two films in 2019 and 2021 and then quickly gave up. It’s possible they could return with costume drama “The Great Amir and Donna Maria”, an epic historical film that looks gorgeous, about a woman in 2026 who learns her fate is somehow mysteriously linked to that of a European concubine enslaved in a 15^th century harem. It was made by the director of Uzbekistan’s last 2021 submission. However, it’s unclear to me if the film is in English or not. If it is, they could consider “Cotton” (Cairo), an arthouse film about a village woman desperately trying to make ends meet in the absence of her husband who disappeared while working abroad. But they’re the least likely of the four Central Asian republics to submit this year.

Vietnam- “Spirit Guardians” Vietnam makes mostly poor choices. In the past eight years, they have mostly veered away from arthouse cinema, choosing two commercial comedies (2018, 2021), two commercial action movies (2019, 2022), and two jingoistic war dramas (2024-2025). Many of these were not popular with local or international critics (especially embarrassing box-office flop “578 Magnum”). Only one, “Glorious Ashes”, played at anything resembling a major festival (Tokyo). This year, I don’t know of any big, patriotic dramas, which means I won't have to suffer through another "Red Rain". A normal country would probably choose “Ky Nam Inn” (Toronto/Busan), an intimate and critically acclaimed drama set in the 1980s, about the relationship between a younger man and an older widow after the fall of Saigon. That would probably be the choice if the year ended today…But I think they will ultimately send “Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor”, a splashy 10^th century period martial arts fantasy starring Hollywood actor and stuntman Johnny Tri Nguyen, which will premiere during Vietnam’s National Day holidays in September. It's already been picked for a Toronto TIFF premiere. I’m feeling good about this pick, though “Ky Nam Inn” will probably do better with Oscar voters. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Vietnam: “Zero Meets Hero”, a gentle, intergenerational comedy about a war veteran and his Gen-Z grandson encountering Vietnamese folk traditions on a road trip, “Blood Moon Rite 8”, a very well-reviewed horror-comedy that I’d love to see, and “Bunny”, a commercial Netflix thriller made by a previously submitted director. Not considered: “Hearing” will premiere in Locarno but the director’s previous film “Taste” was banned and the directors subjected to fines for making it without permission.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- ASIA-PACIFIC PREDICTIONS (30 countries)

Here are my predictions for the countries in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Last year, 20 of these 30 countries sent films but I thought it was a fairly weak group....Mongolia's "If Only I Could Hibernate" was probably the best one.....and it would be on the bubble to make my 15-film shortlist...

This year, we could see the first-ever submission from Papua New Guinea, which announced the formation of an Oscar committee earlier this summer. 

  AFGHANISTAN- “Sima’s Song” Sadly, the arts are no longer a priority in Afghanistan, which continues to struggle under medieval Taliban rule. Having said that, Afghan filmmakers continue to make movies and I hope that they will return to the competition soon, after sending some wonderfully original and thought-provoking films from 2003-2019. Roya Sadat is Afghanistan’s best-known female film director and she represented the country at the Oscars in 2017. "Sima's Song" (Tokyo), shot in Greece but set in Afghanistan is a new drama about two young female students living in Kabul in 1978…when the country was at its most modern. It certainly should be eligible somehow even though Sadat is now reportedly based in Seattle. There’s also “Writing Hawa”, a documentary about a budding female entrepreneur, and her life before and after the 2021 Taliban takeover. It has won a number of awards, and also has a female Afghan director who is currently living in exile.

 AUSTRALIA- “The Wolves Always Come at Night” Between 2012-2023, Screen Australia managed to find a Foreign Language candidate to represent English-speaking Australia every year except once during the 2020 pandemic. These films were in a diverse range of European, Middle Eastern, Asian, Indigenous Australian and Pacific languages. I saw them all and they were mostly very, good. Last year, the Aussies failed to find a suitable candidate but this year they’ll probably send “The Wolves Always Come at Night” (Toronto), a Mongolian docudrama (looks like the same style as “Weeping Camel”) about a nomadic couple forced to leave the countryside and move to the Mongolian capital due to the effects of climate change.

 BANGLADESH- “Saba” This year, Bangladesh has one acclaimed movie that played at both Toronto and Busan - “Saba” about a devoted daughter taking care of her severely disabled mother for 25 years of her life. The daughter has to deal with the painfully difficult (but quite universal) issues surrounding end-of-life care for her mother. This is undoubtedly the best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though I don’t think it’s been released in Bangladesh yet. Mostofa Sarwar Farooki, the only Bangladeshi director who has been picked three times, has a new movie....namely, three-hour satire “840”....but reviews have been very mixed. So "Saba"’s main competition will be “A Tale of Two Sisters”, a film about two sisters trying to make ends meet during Bangladesh’s brutal war of independence in 1971. Bangladesh had two other films at major film festivals - ”Beyond the Mast” (Moscow), a melodrama about tensions among sailors aboard a small ship, and “Shikolbaha” (Silence of the Seashell) (Shanghai), a village drama about woman with an unexpected pregnancy. Less likely: action thriller “Borbaad”, the biggest box-office hit of 2025, family drama “Vhoyal” and thriller “NeelChokro”

  BHUTAN- “I, The Song” Bhutan has sent three films since 1999 and will probably send their fourth, “I, the Song”, this year. The film premiered at a major festival (Tallinn Black Nights) and later won Best Picture at the Bhutan Film Awards. It’s a Hitchcockian thriller about a schoolteacher shocked by the existence of a viral video of a woman who looks exactly like her, doing pornographic things. The film begins to destroy her life. It’s definitely in.

 CAMBODIA- “Mannequin Wedding” This year, most of Cambodia's films have been ghostly horror films. Some of these are supposed to be fairly entertaining but Cambodia typically sends more serious fare to the Oscars. In the past ten years, they’ve sent nine films....six were serious dramas and documentaries that premiered at major international film festivals. The other three were modest but earnestly made local melodramas. No horror movies. But Cambodia doesn't have much to choose from so I’m predicting they send “Mannequin Wedding”, a hybrid horror film-slash-documentary about a 2021 nightclub fire. It’s reportedly the highest-grossing Cambodian film of all time. If that’s not serious enough, they could send rural documentary “Until the Orchid Blooms”....or nothing at all. Dark horse: "Becoming Human" (by the same director as "Orchid") looks wonderful. It's a supernatural drama about a ghost watching over an old cinema scheduled for demolition. It will almost certainly represent Cambodia at the Oscars next year. But maybe they will rush it into cinemas to qualify this year so they'll have something to send? I still think it's their 2026 submission. 

 

 CHINA- “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants” UPDATE 22 SEPTEMBER: I'm changing my prediction. This is looking likely to be Jackie Chan's new box-office smash "The Shadow's Edge"... China produces many beautiful films….but the Chinese Academy hasn’t sent one to the Oscars in years. In the past ten years, they’ve sent four nationalist films of diverse genres (sports, sci-fi, action, and documentary), two historical films by famous directors, two mainstream comedies, a blockbuster kiddie anime film, and an odd Buddhist drama. Eight were fairly big box-office hits; only “Xuanyang” (the Buddhist one) was a failure.  So "success" is important to the Chinese Academy. So far, this year’s two big box-office successes were “Ne Zha 2”, a 2 ½ hour sequel to their 2019 cartoon submission and by far the highest-grossing Chinese film of all time; and “Detective Chinatown 2000”, a comedy sequel starring Chow Yun-fat. Neither of these would be a smart pick, but you really never know with China. Most people are predicting they will send “Ne Zha 2” and this anime sequel actually has surprisingly good reviews….but I think they’ll give another director a chance. In the past, China used to send every Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige film (from 2004-2012, they were sent six times) but they don’t do that anymore. Since 2012, no director has been sent more than once. This could help famous directors like Feng Xiaogang (he’s been picked twice but not since 2013) for women-in-prison drama “We Girls”…or it could benefit Wuershan for “Creation of the Gods II”, a sword-and-sorcery fantasy epic, or famed HK action director Tsui Hark, now 75,  (he’s never been picked by either China or Hong Kong) for “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants”, about the Mongol Invasions of China. These last two were also major hits at the box office. And if China goes the comedy-drama route (they picked “Nice View” a few years ago) it could be “Her Story”, about the challenges of single motherhood. And this summer, there are two patriotic anti-Japanese films coming out – “731” about Japanese medical experimentation camps during WWII, and “Dongji Rescue”, ironically about the Lisbon Maru incident during WWII.....which was also the subject of their disqualified documentary from last year. Of course, China has many arthouse films that could be better choices, especially Berlinale Best Director winner “Living the Land” but also “The Botanist” or “Girls on Wire”. I’m sure to get this one wrong….but honoring Tsui and picking “Legends of the Condor Heroes” looks and sounds like what China usually sends - a great-looking, box-office hit with middling reviews and a pre-cooked U.S. streaming release. I have “731”, “Ne Zha 2” and “Dongji Rescue” as the most likely alternates. Waiting in the wings: Chen Kaige's coming-of-age drama "Flowers from the Ashes" still hasn't been released. 

 FIJI- “Bati” Tiny Fiji doesn’t make many movies but they did enter the Oscar race once in 2005 with a film in the Rotuman language. This year, they could return! Boxing drama “Bati” is a wholly Fijian film that will premiere on August 21^st and – based on the trailer -  looks to be roughly 50% in Fijian and 50% in English. Good luck, Fiji!

 HONG KONG- “The Last Dance” Last year’s HK Oscar submission “Twilight of the Warriors” won Best Picture and Best Director at the Hong Kong Film Awards but three of the other four nominees are eligible this year – (1)- “The Last Dance” (Best Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor + two minor awards) is a drama about a wedding planner who becomes a funeral planner….and the highest-grossing HK film of all time, (2)- “Papa” (Best Actor, Supporting Actress), about a man with survivor guilt following a brutal murder, and (3)- “The Way We Talk”, about Hong Kong’s deaf community with shades of “CODA”. 2025 has been a much quieter year with the only other possible contenders “Montages of a Modern Motherhood”, which opened the Hong Kong Film Festival, “Luz” (Sundance), co-starring Isabelle Huppert, and “My First of May”, a family drama starring Aaron Kwok as the patriarch of a family that falls apart due to the crippling illness of their young daughter. I think “The Last Dance” has more buzz, though “Papa” and “My First of May” will be tough competition.

  INDIA- “Homebound” I do have a life and simply don't have time to research India's 1900 feature films in 20 different languages.....especially since the Film Federation of India (FFI) seems to just pick films at random anyway. The FFI admittedly has a really hard job....but even so, they're not very good at it. I'm predicting "Homebound", a Hindi-language buddy movie about two aspiring police officers that seems to have very good reviews. 

  INDONESIA- “Gowok: Javanese Kamasutra” For now, Indonesia has a four-way race between three previously submitted directors –Hanung Bramantyo (2014), Garin Nugroho (1998/2019) and Mouly Surya (2018), plus Yandy Laurens, whose last film was the big winner of the 2024 Indonesian Citra Awards. I’m predicting Bramantyo’s erotic historical drama “Gowok: Javanese Kamasutra” (Rotterdam), about an upper-class family in the 1960s who hire a sort of courtesan to educate their son about his upcoming marital responsibilities. The Indonesian Academy can be daring (check out the provocative “Memories of My Body” which caused stupid people to protest) and "Gowok" looks aesthetically beautiful. I have Laurens’ “A Brother and 7 Siblings”, a sort of Indonesian “Party of Five” about a young man who finds himself father to seven nieces and nephews after an untimely death, in second place. Laurens won Best Picture at the Indonesian Film Awards last year (for a different film) and they may feel he is owed. It hasn’t gotten any festival play but neither did “Missing Home” a few years ago. Close behind are historical drama “This City is a Battlefield” by Mouly Surya (she directed “Marlina the Murderer”) which is about a freedom fighter who struggles with ordinary life after Indonesia achieves independence, and Garin Nugroho’s “Samsara”, a stylish B+W supernatural drama set in 1930s Bali. Reviews for “This City” aren’t as good as Surya’s previous film, and I fear “Samsara” may be completely forgotten…..but they are very respected directors in Indonesia and definitely have a chance. Rounding out the Top 5: “Crocodile Tears” (Toronto/Tallinn), a drama about an overbearing mother that’s played at quite a few festivals.

  JAPAN- “Kokuho” As usual, Japan has a lot of options. Alphabetically, I see their Top 5 as - (1)- “Kokuho” (Cannes), a huge 3-hour kabuki-yakuza epic (co-starring Ken Watanabe) set during 50 years of post-war Japan....it arguably has the best reviews of the five, (2)- “A Pale View of the Hills” (Cannes), a historical drama about a Japanese widow told in two timelines (like Iceland’s “Touch”) in Japan and the UK, based on a Kazuo Ishiguro novel (3)- “Scarlet” (Venice), the most anticipated anime film of the year, set to premiere at Venice and an early favorite to contend for the Oscar for Best Animated Feature....it's about a princess with magical powers, (4)- “Sham” (Tribeca), a twisty courtroom drama based on a true-crime story about a teacher trying to drive a student to suicide...and the latest from Takeshi Miike, and (5)- “Teki Cometh” (Tokyo), a B+W Haneke-esque drama that won Best Picture at the Tokyo Film Festival and was the Japanese nominee at the Asian Film Awards (winning Best Director), about an old man who receives a mysterious message that danger is coming. 

In recent years, the Japanese Academy has adhered to an unofficial “share the wealth” policy and doesn’t choose directors multiple times. That's the biggest hurdle for frontrunner “Kokuho” whose director Lee Sang-il was selected way back in 2006. Is that long enough to wait? (This unofficial rule will also hurt Chie Hayakawa who some people are predicting for “Renoir”…but Hayakawa was picked just three years ago so I'm confident she has no chance). I keep going back and forth between “Kokuho”, “Sham” and “Pale View of the Hills”...and now "Scarlet" is gathering buzz for its Venice debut. “Kokuho”’s dazzling costumes and Japanese-ness look like they would represent Japan proudly so that's still my pick.  But last year, Japan picked an unheralded film by a respected director who had never been picked before (Kiyoshi Kurosawa)….”Sham” is one of Takeshi Miike’s most mainstream and serious efforts and would probably do well with Oscar voters. The incredibly prolific Miike is 64 years old and has made over 100 films and this would be a nice career honor.....“Pale View” has slightly weaker reviews than the other two but has the Cannes label (so does “Kokuho”) and an old-fashioned Masterpiece Theatre vibe. It’s likely to be one of these three….I’m predicting “Kokuho”….but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they chose one of the other two.

 KAZAKHSTAN- “Joqtau” In the past ten years, Kazakhstan has sent nine films by nine different directors. Three films were about Soviet Kazakh history and one was about Kazakhstan during the 15th century.  Three more were serious social dramas while two were “magical realist” films from international festivals. Notably, they have ignored a lot of acclaimed films and made some rather odd decisions, particularly the critically lambasted “Life” (which I admittedly never saw) in 2022. The Kazakh Academy likes to highlight films that showcase Kazakh culture (“Bauryna Salu”, “Golden Throne”) but also Russian aggression against Kazakhstan (“Amanat”, “Ayka”, “Crying Steppe”), while avoiding films that generate any controversies. That’s unfortunate because the best-reviewed Kazakh film of the year is “Abel” (Busan), about how rampant corruption affects the lives of a hard-working rural couple. Lesbian-themed “Bikechess”, about another controversial topic, won the 2024 Tribeca Film Festival. Neither will be selected. Kazakhstan’s most prolific director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- a horror flick (“Cadet”) and an action movie (“Moor”) but they usually ignore him (including one year when they decided to send nothing instead of "Ademoka's Education"). So, what will they pick? Dreamy drama “Joqtau” (Locarno '24) looks awfully artistic and abstract, but it has played a lot regionally. Other options: Akan Satayev has been picked three times and his new horror film “Anel” could be selected, as could children’s animation “Golden Man” which may check the box for honoring Kazakh history....or “Longer Than a Day” (Shanghai), a drama about a rural couple who encounter a Frenchman on the Kazakh steppes.

 KOREA- “No Other Choice” As of today, Korea has had a mostly weak film year....which will make it easier than ever for Park Chan-wook's "No Other Choice" to win this. Before Korea announced their list of 19 eligible films last month, I expected "What Does That Nature Say to You?" (Berlin), "Square" (Annecy), "Hear Me" (Busan), and "Love in the Big City" (Toronto) might join Park on the list.....but of those four only "Big City", about a young woman and her gay best friend, actually registered. No one has seen "No Other Choice" but Korea is almost certain to send Park Chan-wook’s dark revenge comedy that will premiere at Venice later this month. Park Chan-wook is well-known in Seoul and in Hollywood but has only been submitted to the Oscars once. Even in a stronger year, he’d be the frontrunner….This year, he’s a lock. What happens if the films bombs? It won't....but the runner-ups are likely anti-Japanese historical drama "Harbin" and mystery-thriller "The Ugly". 

Locked:            No Other Choice

Dark Horses:     Harbin, The Ugly

High-Ranked:    Love in the Big City, A Normal Family, Somebody, When This Summer is Over, Yadang: The Snitch

Middle Ranked:  About Family, High Five, Mimang, My Daughter is a Zombie, Secret: Untold Melody, Spring Night

Low Ranked:    Dark Nuns, Exorcism Chronicles, The Killers, The Old Woman & the Knife, Omniescient Reader

  KYRGYZSTAN- “Black Red Yellow” Kyrgyzstan should have an easy decision this year since “Black Red Yellow” became the first-ever Kyrgyz film to win a Class-A film festival in Shanghai this year. Add to that the fact that director Aktan Arym Kubat has been selected for all five feature films that he made in Kyrgyzstan since the country began entering the Oscar competition in 1998…and his films keep getting better and better. So, this should be a no brainer. “Black Red Yellow” is a village drama that also showcases the country’s outstanding carpetmaking traditions. In any other year, human trafficking drama “Deal at the Border” would have had a good chance.

  LAOS- “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” Laos has just sent one film, a really fun horror movie called "Dearest  Sister", to the Oscars (in 2017). They probably won’t send anything this year but UK co-production “Satu- Year of the Rabbit”, a road movie about a child laborer searching for his long-lost mother, looks great and has played at a number of festivals.  But the fact that it has a British writer-director and mostly foreign crew (it has Lao producers and a Lao cast) means maybe it isn't eligible? 

  MALAYSIA- “Blood Brothers: Dragon’s Embers” Malaysia is hard to predict because they have absolutely no genre prejudices. Most countries just look at straight dramas but Malaysia has happily sent comedies, horror films, documentaries and family films….This year, I expect they'll be choosing between mafia crime drama "Blood Brothers" and time-travel fantasy "Reversi", in part because they both have Netflix release deals like last year's submission. "Blood Brothers" seems slightly more likely to me. They could also choose “Magik Rompak”, a new heist movie....horror-drama “Kulit Wayang” whose director Dain Said directed the first-ever Malaysian submission or “Finding Ramlee” (Rotterdam), a dramedy about a struggling actor. Dark horses: One of their best reviewed films of the year is a kiddie anime film- “Ejen Ali 2”.....and "The Fox King", a buzzy new film about twin brothers, could potentially premiere at the last possible moment.

 MONGOLIA- “Silent City Driver” Last year, “If Only I Could Hibernate” (Cannes 2023) was one of the best films submitted from Asia and it was very warmly received by critics. And yet the Mongolian Academy announced that they were not submitting any film at all reportedly because “Hibernate” did not show the country in a positive light. They had to be shamed by a social media campaign led by the director into sending it to the Oscars. Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia is a very small filmmaking country that managed to win a Class-A festival this year, in this case with Buddhist thriller “Silent City Driver”, which won Tallinn Black Nights. But Tallinn Black Nights is known as a very "genre" festival so “Silent City Driver”, about an ex-con hearse driver seeking revenge, could lose out to “Mongol”, which looks like the kind of cultural film that Mongolia usually sends to the Oscars. Set circa 1900, "Mongol" is an epic costume drama about a peasant, his feudal lord, and the lord’s daughter with whom he has fallen in love. The writer, director and lead actor is Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam who was chosen to rep Mongolia in 2023. This will be a very, very tight two-way race. I predict “Silent City” but local politics could mean “Mongol” (which also looks very good) gets this.  

  NEPAL- “The World's Happiest Man” Nepal has two strong options, namely Deepak Rauniyar’s “Pooja, Sir”, which premiered at Venice Horizons 2024, and Binod Paudel’s “The World’s Happiest Man”, set in the U.S. state of Ohio and co-starring two-time Oscar nominee Bruce Dern, who is now 89 years old. Both directors have been picked once before but Rauniyar is more famous internationally. But Nepal sometimes just chooses a locally made film that nobody has ever heard of. The gorgeous “Halkara” starts off slow but was one of the most pleasant surprises on the Oscar longlist two years ago. “A Journey of Purna Bahadur”, about the life of an impoverished musician trying to achieve a better future (and co-produced by Paudel), is reportedly the highest-grossing film in Nepalese history and that could help it outrun the two frontrunners. “Woolen Sweater” and “Mohar” round out the top five options for Nepal. I think the U.S. connection will help "Happiest Man" win this. 

 NEW ZEALAND- “Kōkā” The Kiwis had an excellent candidate last year (“In the Fire of War”, aka Ka Whawhai Tonu) that was probably their best chance ever to make the shortlist. It was certainly eligible but, for some reason, they didn’t send it. It seems that the New Zealand Film Commission has lost interest in this category. Between 2011-2018, they sent six films. Since then, just one. If they return this year, I predict it will be “Kōkā”, a spiritual road movie about a (mentally ill?) Maori elder and a troubled young girl. Based on the trailer, it looks like it’s 50-50 in the English and Maori languages.We'll see! 

 PAKISTAN- “Ghost School” Of all the regular participants at the International Oscar party, I probably had the hardest time finding a film that could suitably represent Pakistan....until Toronto announced its line-up. Although Pakistan has deserved two Oscar nominations in the past five years (“Circus of Life”, which probably should have won, and “Joyland” which definitely should have been nominated), this has been a lean year. There have been a few well-received movies with lots of local music and romance…but they don’t look like Oscar contenders. Pakistan did send a horror-drama (“In Flames”) in 2023 so I was going to predict they would send “Deemak”- a slow-burn thriller about a family who aren’t sure whether the strange events in their home are supernatural. Reviews are so-so but it was probably their best shot. But when Toronto announced another supernatural drama  -- "Ghost School" - I immediately changed my prediction. "Ghost School" looks wonderful. It's about a young girl trying to uncover the mystery of why her local school has been shuttered, but it also focuses on a number of contemporary social issues, including government corruption and access to education. I'm not certain it can get into Pakistani cinemas by September 30....but it looks like a very strong entry. 

 PAPUA NEW GUINEA- “Plesman 2” Papua New Guinea is one of two countries (along with Madagascar) that has publicly announced that they plan to send a film for the first time in 2025….and I’m pretty shocked. PNG doesn't produce a lot of films, both because of a lack of filmmaking expertise, as well as crime and violence…but there has apparently been a lot of talk recently about jump-starting the industry. There was a lot of fanfare in 2024 about “Black Python”, billed as the country’s first-ever action film. If they really do enter, I think they’ll send “Plesman 2: Rising from the Ashes”, a film being readied for release in time for the country’s 50^th anniversary of independence in August 2025. It’s a social issues drama (and sequel) about a man confronting tribal conflict, sorcery and lack of education in his rural community. Papua New Guinea is one of only four “big” countries (over 2 million people) in the Asia-Pacific region never to send a film to the Oscars, alongside the hermetical trio of Burma, North Korea and Turkmenistan.

 PHILIPPINES- “Magellan” The Philippines gets a lot of their Oscar submissions from the Cinemalaya independent film festival (5 of their past 12 submissions)  but this year's Cinemalaya has been postponed from August to October, meaning that there is a slightly smaller pool of films. From the past twelve years, five came from major festivals (Cannes, Venice, Sundance), one came from their popular (and more commercial) Metro Manila Film Festival, and one (General Luna) was a regular commercial blockbuster. Before the shortlist came out, I highlighted four films as possibilities - "Gunay Lang, Manong!" and "Sunshine" (both from Cinemalaya 2024), "Green Bones" (Metro Manila) and "Magellan" (Cannes). The Filipino shortlist included "Green Bones", "Magellan" and "Sunshine", plus four dark horses - documentary "Food Delivery", box-office smash sequel "Hello Love Again", LGBT drama "Some Nights I Feel Like Walking" and choir drama "Song of the Fireflies". I don't really expect any of these four to be selected. And although "Green Bones", a crime-thriller about a murderer about to be released from prison, has a Netflix deal, it probably won't have much luck either.

That leaves us with the two favorites- Lav Diaz's big-budget international historical drama "Magellan" and plucky indie "Sunshine", about a pregnant teen gymnast. "Magellan" has international backing, a Cannes label, exemplary production values, and stars Gael Garcia Bernal...all things that will help the Philippines in its quest to make the shortlist for the first time. The Philippines has been sending films since the first call for submissions way back in 1956, when five out of eight submissions got Oscar nominations!) That year, only Philippines, Spain and Sweden failed to get to Hollywood....But by 1960, both Spain and Sweden made the finals courtesy of Juan Antonio Bardem and Ingmar Bergman. Only the Philippines has been waiting so long. That makes "Magellan", which could launch an effective Oscar campaign, the favorite and my prediction. Lav Diaz - whose films usually run four hours or more- has employed a better editor this time. "Magellan" is just 2 hours and 45 minutes (still too long for me). 

But "Sunshine" is more "authentically Filipino" and, on paper, probably has better reviews than "Magellan". This story about teen pregnancy and abortion (still strictly illegal in the Philippines) will probably also resonate more with American audiences than the story of a Portuguese missionary and explorer. Unfortunately, because of the AMPAS voting system, "Magellan" probably has the advantage when it comes to making the shortlist. 

Ultimately, I don't think either film will be nominated so perhaps the Filipinos should vote with their heart instead of worrying about a nomination.....

For a much more in-depth look at the Filipino race, check out Nicol's blog entry here. 

  SINGAPORE- “Stranger Eyes” Four of Singapore’s previous submitted directors – Raihan Halim (2024), Eric Khoo (2005, 2008, 2011, 2015), Mike Wiluan (2018), and Yeo Siew Hua (2019)- have new movies that appear to be eligible. On paper, “Spirit World” should be the frontrunner. It was the Closing Film at Busan, it stars Catherine Deneuve (as a ghost!) and is directed by Eric Khoo who has been picked to represent Singapore a record four times. But reviews of the film, in Japanese and French, have not been especially kind. People don't seem to like it. So, I think Singapore will pick “Stranger Eyes” (Yeo’s film), a weird thriller that premiered in the Main Competition at Venice, opened the Singapore Film Festival and got some love at the Asian Film Awards and the Golden Horse Film Festival. Reviews for the film - which sounds like a Singaporean version of Haneke’s “Cache - have been okay. In 2^nd place, “Pierce” (Karlovy Vary), a murder thriller centered around competitive fencing. Horror film “Monster Island” (Wiluan’s film) looks good and already has a US distribution deal but it also seems to have too much English, and “Ibu” (Halim’s film), a middling horror flick, won’t come into play. Toronto premiere "Amoeba" looks controversial...and probably won't premiere in time. 

 SRI LANKA- “River Stone” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009…Excluding Kuwait, it’s the only Asian country that’s been absent for more than a decade. If for some reason they choose to return, it will surely be “Riverstone” which won two awards at the Shanghai Film Festival, including Best Screenplay. It’s a baity moral dilemma drama about three army officers who are sent on a mission to assassinate a man they know nothing about. I hope to welcome them back!

 TAIWAN- “Yen & Ai-Lee” Taiwan has quite a few good options although none of them are likely to be mount strong competition at the Oscars. Taiwan often makes strange choices, preferring to pick a movie that has the backing of a US distributor like Amazon or Netflix. I don’t know of any Taiwanese films that have U.S. distribution this year….so I’m predicting unassuming domestic violence drama “Yen & Ai-Lee” (Busan), about a woman who is released from prison after an 8-year sentence for killing her father who tried to kill her mother. The two runner-ups will be “Left-Handed Girl” (Cannes), a family drama about a single mother (it hasn’t been released in cinemas yet), and “Daughter’s Daughter” (Toronto 2024), a star vehicle for Sylvia Chang about a bereaved mother who inherits her daughter’s frozen embryos. Less likely but possible: Singapore co-production and fencing drama “Pierce” and family drama “Family Matters”. This is one where I really have no idea. Waiting in the wings is Shu Qi's directorial debut "Girl" which has been selected to compete for the Golden Lion in Venice and also screen in Toronto. This coming-of-age drama looks very strong...but I'm not confident they can get it into Taiwanese cinemas by September 30 (it premieres in Venice on September 4) so I'm sticking with "Yen & Ai-Lee". 

  TAJIKISTAN- “Fish on the Hook” I’m aware of three Tajik films that have won awards locally- “In Pursuit of Truth” (Dar taloshi hakikat), a mystery about a bride who dies on her wedding night...but villagers cannot determine whether she was murdered or committed suicide, “Fish on the Hook” (Mohi dar shast), a road movie about a boy trying to reunite with his estranged mother, and “Shine” (Furugh), about a 7-year old deaf girl. Tajikistan returned to the Oscars after a 19-year absence in 2024 and I’m hopeful they’ll send one of these films. Last year's entry was an Iranian co-production. So “Fish”, which has both Iranian and Russian partners, looks to be the one.

  THAILAND- “A Useful Ghost” Thailand made it to the shortlist for the first time last year for “How to Make Millions When Grandma Dies”. I thought it was a lovely movie though I was surprised at how far it went...I've seen better Thai submissions. Before Thailand's preliminary Oscar announcement, I thought that Thailand had three possibilities- “Flat Girls”, a queer coming-of-age tale, “A Useful Ghost”, a bizarre fantasy-comedy that won Cannes Critics Week for its story of a possessed vacuum cleaner (!!) and “Morte Cucina”, an upcoming thriller that reunites Japanese superstar Tadanobu Asano, cinematographer Christopher Doyle and director Pen-ek Ratanaruang (“Last Life in the Universe”). "Morte Cucina" won't be released in time which was confirmed when the Thai Academy showed the ten movie posters of the films they are considering.  There are three horror movies ("Death Whisperer 2", "Halabala" and "Panor"), three comedies ("Nancy Boy", "Red Envelope", "A Useful Ghost"), two dramas ("Flat Girls", "Regretfully at Dawn") and two crime/thrillers ("In Youth We Trust", "The Stone"). I love to see so many horror films on the shortlist but I still think it's between "Flat Girls" and "Useful Ghost". In the end, I think that the Thai Academy will likely be impressed by “Useful Ghost”’s surprise Cannes win, U.S. distribution deal and berth at Toronto….but they’ll also realize that they finally made it to the shortlist (after 40 years!) with a sentimental melodrama from the same studio as “Flat Girls”....but unlike slow-burn box-office "Millions", "Flat Girls" was kind of a flop. For now, let’s say “A Useful Ghost”.

 TURKMENISTAN- "Magtymguly Pyragy" Turkmenistan's dictator basically banned local cinema from roughly 1998-2006, which led to the departure of many of the country's Soviet-era talent. They are currently the only former Soviet republic that has never submitted a film to the Oscars. While unlikely, it's possible could seek to enter the Oscar race with "Magtymguly Pyragy", a fancy period biopic that they co-produced with Uzbekistan, about a renowned 17th century Turkmen poet 

  UZBEKISTAN- “In Pursuit of Spring” The film I predicted last year for Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” ended up winning Best Picture at the local Uzbek Film Awards so that was a good guess…but Uzbekistan ultimately didn’t submit anything to the Oscars. In fact, the Uzbeks have only sent two films to the Oscars (2019-2021) and they’re unlikely to return this year. They could send “In Pursuit of Spring”, about a conservative woman on a long journey to a remote village or “Magtymguly Pyragy” (see Turkmenistan), a big-budget costume drama made in partnership with neighboring Turkmenistan but by an Uzbek director. Both of these films have represented Uzbekistan at regional film festivals, in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. They also have “Three Heroes”, an action movie that was the biggest local box-office hit of 2024 and which won two small national film awards.

  VIETNAM- “Don’t Cry Butterfly” Vietnam joined the “ten-year club” last year, submitting films ten years in a row. Vietnam sometimes picks films from major festivals but more often, they choose commercial films or patriotic films made by the national film studio. From the festival circuit, they have “Cu Li Never Cries” (Berlinale Panorama), a slow arty film about a woman and her pet loris (?!) and “Don’t Cry Butterfly” (Venice Critics Week), a comic fantasy about a woman who uses black magic to woo back her cheating husband. If they go the “patriotic” film route (like last year), then it will probably be “Tunnels: Sun in the Dark”, a Vietnam War film made to celebrate 50 years since the 1975 victory of the Vietnamese Communists against South Vietnam and the USA. If they go the commercial route, it could be box-office smash comedy “The Four Rascals” or period horror-mystery film “The Headless Horror”. Vietnam has never picked a horror film before but Vietnam has been loosening its unofficial ban on films with “superstitious elements” and produced quite a few horror movies recently. They also have a new romantic drama "Ky Nam Inn" premiering in Toronto. Of these six possibilities, I think “Don’t Cry Butterfly” has a good mix of arty and commercial elements and will be the Vietnamese nominee, followed by “Tunnels” in second place, "Ky Nam Inn" in third (it probably will be eligible next year) and “Four Rascals” (not a critics favorite, by the way) in fourth.