Oscar International Film Predictions- the Asia/Pacific Region

Here are my predictions for the 28 countries of the Asia-Pacific region....

Afghanistan- “The Sharp Edge of Peace” Since the overthrow of the pro-“modernity” Ghani regime by Taliban thugs in 2021, Afghanistan’s small film industry has been decimated as most artists fled the country. Afghanistan had been producing beautiful low-budget films for the past 20 years. While films have not been completely banned like during the first Taliban occupation, filmmakers have been told that women cannot be on screen, nor can there be a musical soundtrack, and they are using the former Film Studies program to produce Islamic films. It would be wonderful (but surprising) if Afghan filmmakers in exile could form a committee to highlight Afghan cinema. They could choose “The Sharp Edge of Peace”, about Afghan women trying to work within the system to obtain some semblance of women’s rights in contemporary Afghanistan. Currently based abroad, director Roya Sadat is one the country’s leading female directors and one of her films was submitted to the Oscars in 2017. “Kamay”, a documentary analyzing the suicide of a young university student before the Taliban takeover, would also be a worthy submission. It should be noted that an Afghan-British director, Elham Ehsas, was shortlisted in the Best Live-Action Short category last year. Afghanistan is still present on the international film scene.

Australia- “The Wolves Always Come At Night” You’d think most of English-speaking Australia’s submission would come from the Aboriginal communities….but most of them are the result of Australian directors working abroad. Only one of their last ten submissions was Aboriginal (“Charlie’s Country”) and only one was an immigrant story (“Shayda”). The other eight were made in Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Cambodia, Italy, Laos, Macedonia and Vanuatu. We could add Greece or Mongolia to that list this year. Documentary “The Wolves Always Come At Night” was made by Berlin-based Australian filmmaker Gabrielle Brady in Mongolia. It’s a docudrama similar in style to “Story of the Weeping Camel”, this time following a nomadic family affected by climate change. It’s set to premiere in Toronto and it’s unclear if it will get a theatrical release before September 30. If it doesn’t, I expect Canada will go with “Brando With a Glass Eye”, an unorthodox thriller made (in Greek) by a Greek-Australian director in New York.

Bangladesh- “A House Named Shahana” Bangladesh is in the middle of a political crisis, but I’m optimistic things will settle down in September. Bangladesh hasn’t missed an opportunity to send a film since 2011. Bangladesh is one of the only countries that has never sent a female-helmed film so I’m hoping they send “A House Named Shahana”, about a divorced woman who refuses to let social stigma affect her life in the conservative town where she lives. It’s certainly the best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though it doesn’t seem to have been released locally, and time is short. Director Mostafa Sarwar Farooki has been picked three times – more than any other Bangladeshi director – and he has two family dramas eligible this year (“Something Like An Autobiography” and “Last Defenders of Monogamy”) and Bangladesh has also had two films in competition at the (heavily boycotted) Moscow Film Festival (“Scent of Sin” and “Nirvana”). None of these four have great reviews, but I could see them 2024 Moscow Jury Prize winner “Nirvana” (a silent b&w film) or the scandalous “Scent of Sin”, which was finally released this year after months of haggling over its sexual frankness. Mafia drama “Toofan” is one of the biggest box-office hits of all time in Bangladesh and though it’s not what Bangladesh typically sends, it has gotten good reviews and could compete in a weak year if “Shahana” is not eligible.

Bhutan- “Agent of Happiness” Tiny Bhutan has only sent three films to the Oscars but the last two (both by Pawo Choyning Dorji) were shortlisted (and “Lunana” was nominated!). Bhutan launched an open call for submissions for the first time last year (receiving four, although the titles were not publicly announced) meaning that they might be in the race to stay…This year, I think they’ll send Sundance documentary “Agent of Happiness”, co-directed by a young Bhutanese from the country’s minority Hindu community and a Hungarian. Khynetse Norbu (“The Cup”, “Travellers & Magicians”), who in my opinion is Bhutan’s superior director, has a new movie called “Pig at the Crossing” but this seems to have premiered using an experimental digital worldwide release and thus would appear to be ineligible.

Cambodia- “Rendez-vous with Pol Pot” With film production mostly limited to gruesome horror movies and a few rom-coms, Cambodia failed to send a film last year for the first time since 2014…just one year after deservingly making the shortlist for the decidedly not Cambodian “Return to Seoul”. This year, Rithy Panh (who has made three of Cambodia’s eleven submissions) had a new drama at Cannes (it’s not a documentary, though it’s been incorrectly described as one) about a troupe of three French journalists who are invited to interview the genocidal dictator in the 1970s. Unlikely: horror film “The Night Curse of Reatrei” has gotten quite reviews and been exported to other countries in East Asia. 

China- “” TBD....China is difficult because they don't actually pick Oscar-worthy films but seemingly choose a big-budget film at ransom. 

Fiji- Nothing  Fiji sent a film once in 2005 but they don’t have a developed native film industry and they won’t send anything this year.

Hong Kong- “All Shall Be Well” Hong Kong was disqualified last year because AMPAS alleged a conflict of interest because an unnamed actor from the winning film was on the selection committee…but they’ve confirmed their intention to return this year. Hong Kong has a wide-open race. Hong Kong’s Academy wavers between gritty triad dramas (3 times in the past ten years), commercial melodramas (three times…I didn’t like these at all), arthouse films selected for major festivals (3 times, including one Oscar nominee) and one big action flick. This year, they have six main contenders. In alphabetical order, they are (1)- “All Shall Be Well”, an LGBT inheritance drama that won the Teddy Award in Berlin and opened the 2024 Hong Kong Film Festival, (2)- “The Goldfinger”, an all-star triad crime drama reuniting the team of “Infernal Affairs” that inspired “The Departed”, (3)- “In Broad Daylight”, a locally-themed melodrama about abuses in elderly care homes and the Hong Kong health care system, (4)- “She’s Got No Name”, a Zhang Ziyi period melodrama that premiered Out of Competition at Cannes, (5)- “Time Still Turns the Pages”, a small family/school drama that was the only Hong Kong film nominated in the top category at the Golden Horse Awards, and (6)- “Twilight of the Warriors”, another all-star crime drama, but with less starpower and better reviews than “Goldfinger”. If they go with reviews, “All Shall Be Well”, “In Broad Daylight”, and “Time Still Turns the Pages” have the advantage. If they want something “big and fancy”, then they’ll pick between “The Goldfinger”, “She’s Got Your Name” and “Twilight of the Warriors”. There’s not really a middle ground this year and I could see Hong Kong picking any of these films (I haven’t seen them but I’m hoping for one of the three critically acclaimed ones).  Dark horses: Dante Lam’s “Bursting Point” got bad reviews, but his two previous Oscar submissions were also terrible so maybe that doesn’t matter. My prediction: a surprise win for “All Shall Be Well”, if the LGBT storyline doesn’t make them squeamish.  Runner-ups: (and almost equally likely): “Twilight of the Warriors” and “Time Still Turns the Pages”. But this will be close.  

India- “All We Imagine As Light” But I need some more time to think about this one....

Indonesia- “Andragogy” Indonesia is hard to predict because their Academy – unlike most - is open to all sorts of films and genres ranging from horror (2020) to box-office hit comedies (2022) to controversial arthouse (2019). For this reason, they send some of the most entertaining films each year (my favorite, by far, was “Marlina the Murderer”). They’ve got quite a few potential options this year, including (alphabetically) “Andragogy”, a topical drama about social media that premiered at last year’s Toronto Film Festival, “Borderless Fog”, a crime drama by a director who has been passed over before, “Falling in Love Like in Movies”, a well-reviewed comedy-drama, “Grave Torture”, a horror film by box-office draw Joko Anwar, “Ipar Adalah Maut”, a marriage melodrama, “13 Bombs”, an action flick by a previously selected director, “Women from Rote Island” which dominated the local film awards, and “Yohanna” (Rotterdam), about a nun who helps victims of child labor. At least four of these (“Fog”, “Andragogy”, “Falling in Love” and “Bombs”) have U.S. Netflix deals. Of these eight, I think the frontrunners are the two comedy-dramas, “Andragogy” and “Falling in Love” which have U.S. distribution deals, confirmed Indonesian cinematic releases, and some of the best reviews of the group. Add the Toronto film festival prestige, 17 Indonesian Film Awards nominations (it won just two), and the shades of “Teachers’ Lounge” and I think “Andragogy” will be the one. I predict the B&W arthouse of “Falling in Love” will come second, “Rote Island” (which I don’t think was released in cinemas) in third, “Grave Torture” fourth and “13 Bombs” rounding out the Top 5.

Japan- “Evil Does Not Exist” Last year, Japan had to choose between four likely Oscar nominees (“Boy and the Heron”, “Godzilla Minus One” and “Perfect Days”, which actually got Oscar nominations, plus Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Monster”) challenging the “one film per country” rule. But this year should be a much easier decision. Four of the past six years, Japan picked a film that competed for the Palme d’Or (and a fifth film, “Plan 75”, was in Un Certain Regard). But they had no films in Competition at Cannes (or Berlin) and the one UCR title (obscure queer drama “My Sunshine”) doesn’t look like an especially likely choice. But Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Evil Does Not Exist” premiered at Venice 2023, where it won the Grand Jury Prize and although it doesn’t have the same buzz as the inexplicably popular “Drive My Car”, reviews have been very, very good. It’s about a town threatened by a disruptive real estate project and it’s NOT three hours long so I’m far more interested in it than the overrated mess of “Car”. Japan often makes odd decisions but this year they really don’t have any other options nearly as good. Other films on their (internal) shortlist are likely to include WWII anime “Totto-Chan: The Little Girl at the Window” (Annecy), Takeshi Kitano’s new action movie “Kubi” (but the Japanese have never been fans of Kitano-san) and “All the Long Nights” a slice-of-life drama about two mismatched coworkers with anxiety disorders. But “Evil” should be an easy selection.

Kazakhstan- “The Divorce” Kazakhstan didn’t send a film last year, even though they had two very well-regarded entries, including “Bauryna Salu” (San Sebastian), which certainly had better reviews than most of their recent submissions. Some Kazakh filmmakers complained they weren’t even aware there was a call for entries (though they may be their fault). Still, it was only the second time since Kazakhstan joined in 2006 that they failed to enter…so I assume they’ll return this year. “Zhambyl- A New Era” is the sort of state-supported costume drama that they usually send….but this biopic of a revered 19^th century poet will likely be difficult to translate (poetry is hard) so I’m predicting they send “The Divorce”, a clever drama during the early days of Kazakhstan, which won Best Picture at the Shanghai Film Festival. Less likely: WWII drama “Qara Qyz”, bleak character study “Madina” (Tokyo), plus the prolific Adilkhan Yerzhanov has a new movie (“Steppenwolf”) about a missing child…but Kazakhstan usually ignores Yerzhanov (they submitted him once and rejected his submission last year).

Korea- “Exhuma” SouthKorea announced that it would be considering 15 films to represent the country at the Oscars. There don’t appear to be any strong Oscar contenders…but here’s my tiered ranking:

No Chance- “Cabriolet”, “Victory”, “Yeonryeon” These three obscure options- a cheerleader comedy, a road trip drama about a woman with cancer, and a film/director that I actually had to add to IMDB- hardly seem likely to be seriously considered.

Highly Unlikely- “I, Executioner”, “Our Season”, “Picnic” An action movie sequel, a tearjerker about the visit of a mother’s ghost, and a soap opera about elderly friends…..they don’t have the reviews or a high-enough profile to represent Korea. Also, the director of “I, Executioner” was just picked two years ago.

Long Shots- “Escape”, “FAQ”, “Revolver” These genre films – a children’s sci-fi movie, an exciting thriller about a North Korean defector and a revenge movie - have good reviews…but don’t seem serious enough to me to be picked.

Dark Horses- “Citizen of a Kind”, “House of the Seasons”, “Noryang, Deadly Sea” “Citizen of a Kind” is a genuine crowdpleaser about a single mom who takes revenge after being scammed. “House of the Seasons” is a sprawling family drama that Variety called “a beautifully poised debut” and that highlights Korean culture. “Noryang, Deadly Sea” is an impressive-looking, big-budget period drama about 16^th century military battles between Korea and Japan. But they all look like the ‘runner-ups’ for Korea in recent years. Korea tends to favor action/historical thrillers (but not costume dramas). The director of “Noryang” has come close to repping Korea twice for “War of the Arrows” and “The Admiral”…so he has a chance if the Korean Academy feels he is overdue.

Frontrunners- “12.12: the Day”, “Exhuma”, “Land of Happiness”. These are the three frontrunenrs. “12.12” and “Land of Happiness” are both about the 1979 political assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and Korea sent political thriller three of the past eight years. “12.12” was the highest-grossing Korean film of 2023, and “Exhuma” is (so far) the highest-grossing film of 2024. “Exhuma” is one of only two contenders that appeared at a major film festival (Berlin; “I Executioner” appeared out of competition at Cannes). “Land of Happiness” hasn’t premiered yet (it will be released August 14) so we don’t know how good it is…but it is the final film of “Parasite” star Lee Sun-kyun who was bullied into committing suicide by Korean police in 2023…so there’s quite a sentimental angle there.  “12.12” arguably has the best reviews and best matches what Korea usually sends…but because “12.12” and “Happiness” are so similar they may split the vote…so I think horror-drama “Exhuma” may emerge victorious. But I wouldn’t be surprised by any of these three.

Kyrgyzstan- “Bride Kidnapping” Kyrgyzstan sent a film by Aktan Abdykalykov for the fifth time last year and I thought “This is What I Remember” was his best ever. Unfortunately, it was disqualified over a release date issue but Kyrgyzstan launched a call for submissions last month so it seems they aren’t cross. In addition to Aktan’s five submissions, Kyrgyzstan has sent films made by his son Mirlan twice, so they’re sure to send “Bride Kidnapping” (Busan) about this terrible Kyrgyz custom that was also the subject of an Oscar Short Film nomination two years ago.  But the film faces stiff competition from box-office hit “Beyish” (aka Heaven is at Mother’s Feet), a national hit which has been billed as the biggest film in Kyrgyzstan’s cinematic history. It’s about a mentally challenged man who dreams of accompanying his elderly mother on a pilgrimage to Mecca. In any other year, “The Gift”, about a tomboy forced to take on male roles in the family, and “Error 404”, a psychological drama, would contend….but not against these two big movies.  UPDATE: Big hit "Heaven is at Mother's Feet" was selected.....Not a huge surprise. 

Laos- “The Signal” Communist Laos sent a film to the Oscars once in 2017 – horror-drama “Dearest Sister”, which exceeded my expectations. They have two films on the circuit this year, including another horror-drama (“The Signal”) which premiered in Laos in November after debuting at the Shanghai Film Festival. It’s about a village girl who becomes involved with a series of family mysteries when she begins working for a new family in the capital. “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” is also around, but it was made by a British director.

Malaysia- “Abang Adik” Could “Abang Adik” make Malaysian Oscar history? Like most years, the best Malaysian films are in Chinese, but the Malaysian Academy has only selected Malay-language films to represent the country. But “Abang Adik” is one of the first Chinese-language films to get a Best Pic nomination at the Malaysian Film Festival (non-Malay films used to be relegated to their own category) and it got a Netflix deal as well. “Adik”, about two orphaned brothers one of whom is deaf, is also easily the most acclaimed Malaysian film of the year (its rivals are “Snow in Midsummer” from Venice, but that’s in Chinese as well, and “Fire on Water”, which is in Tamil, another minority language). So Malaysia has a dilemma….choose an acclaimed film that is mostly in Chinese, choose a lesser-known Malay alternative (possibly Paralympics drama “Gold”), or take the year off (which they did in 2022). They’re all equally likely but I’m hoping Malaysia does the right thing.

Mongolia- “If Only I Could Hibernate” The favorite for Mongolia is “If Only I Could Hibernate” was one of the first Mongolian films to appear at Cannes, when it got an Un Certain Regard berth last year. It’s about a bright but troubled Mongolian teen whose mother suddenly leaves him in charge of the family while she goes to work in the countryside. It got good reviews and moved to Mongolian cinemas in early 2024. However, it’s not a sure thing…. previously submitted directors Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam (picked in 2022) and Erdenebileg Ganbold (picked in 2019) have new action-packed films set in the country’s nomadic countryside. I give Ganbold’s “Wolf Warriors”, a period epic set in 800 B.C., the edge over Baljinnyam’s “Mongol”, about political and romantic intrigue within a tight-knit nomadic community. I have “White Flag”, about modern female nomads, in 4^th place.

Nepal- “A Road to a Village” Nepal had no less than four exciting new films at major film festivals this past year- “Pooja Sir” (Venice Horizons 2024),  “Red Suitcase” (Venice Horizons 2023), “A Road to a Village” (Toronto 2023), “Shambhala" (Berlinale 2024). Three of these four (all but “Suitcase”) are made by respected national directors. The two older ones- horror-drama “Red Suitcase” and village drama “Road to a Village” are eligible this year. “Pooja” will almost certainly be eligible next year, while the status of “Shambhala” is unclear. When Nepal has an international arthouse option, they usually go for it…so “A Road to a Village”, a slow-paced film about how a new road affects a rural community- is the likely choice….but I’m rooting for the “Twilight Zone”-esque “Suitcase”. If they want to go with something more local (which is usually all they have), they’ll probably pick one of two social dramas- “Pujar Sarki” (caste discrimination) or “Dimag Kharab” (overseas employment).  

New Zealand- “Ka Whawhai Tonu” New Zealand has one of the easiest decisions of the year thanks to the box-office hit Maori historical epic “Ka Whawhai Tonu”, which has also gotten very good reviews. Set in 1864, its about battles between Maori and colonial New Zealand forces and it appears to be more than 50% in the Maori language.

Pakistan- “The Glassmaker” Pakistan often sends some of the most interesting and daring films each year. “Joyland” and “Circus of Life” were brilliant (“Circus” probably deserved the Oscar)….”In Flames”, though not my favorite, was an original genre effort. This year, the Pakistanis will probably send their first-ever hand-drawn animated film- “The Glassmaker”- said to be inspired by Studio Ghibli’s historical films. It’s been released in Pakistan in Urdu- and English-versions and Pakistan may try to submit it to launch a long-shot campaign for Best Animated Feature. That’s the likely submission but also in the running are (2^nd place) “Gunjal”, about the murder of a child labor activist, “Na Baligh Afraad”, a comedy about two teenagers discovering pornography, and “Yasmeen’s Element”, a drama about a rural schoolgirl directed by a Pakistan-American from Arkansas.  

Philippines- “GomBurZa” The Philippines usually opts for a film from a major international film festival or from their own domestic Cinemalaya indie film festival. Options from major film festivals are slim. Lav Diaz is premiering his latest 4-hour film, “Phantosmia”, at Venice and there is a teen pregnancy drama (“Sunshine”), but I doubt either will get a domestic release by September 30. “Fin” (aka “Love and Videotapes”) played at Cinemalaya 2023 (winning Best Director) and at Berlinale (in the 14+ Section) so that’s definitely a possibility. Last year, they went with Cinemalaya winner “The Missing” (a great choice!) and if they want a Cinemalaya indie, they could look at last year’s Jury Prize winner (“Ang Duyan ng Magiting” with Dolly DeLeon) or one of this year’s two big winners (“Tumandok” and “Kono basho”, which together won more than half the prizes)….but I can’t see that any of them got a domestic release either. So, they may be forced to send something a bit more commercial. “Firefly”, “GomBurZa” and “Mallari” each won Best Picture at a major Philippine awards show (Metro Manila, FAP and FAMAS respectively). “GomBurZa”, a historical drama about three Filipino priests martyred for standing up to Spanish colonial rule, was nominated at all four major national film awards (the three mentioned earlier plus Gawan Urian). I can confirm that all three are eligible. My predictions: the Philippines could struggle because they’ll want to send one of the films that may not have been released domestically, probably Cinemalaya winner “Tumandok” (The Inhabitants), a docudrama filmed with non-professional actors from the Ati indigenous community. So, I’m predicting “GomBurZa”, which has both been warmly received by critics and audiences and secured a Netflix deal in the U.S. I have “Tumandok” in second, “Firefly”, a fantasy-drama, in third, “Phantosmia” in fourth, and “Fin” (about a boy searching for his long-lost father) in fifth. Unlikely but possible: “Ang Duyan ng Magiting”, “Hyphen”, “Kono Basho” and documentary “Maria”.

Singapore- “Wonderland” Singapore has mostly produced minority co-productions this year, but they have two films about fathers and their kids. They could send “Tomorrow is a Long Time” (Berlin 2023) about the relationship between a widower and his teenage son, but are more likely to send “Wonderland”, a drama about two fathers and their daughters, starring comedian Mark Lee.

Sri Lanka- “Whispering Mountains” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009 but I’m really hoping they return with “Whispering Mountains” (Busan, Rotterdam), a weird and well-reviewed mystery-horror-drama about the government’s efforts to handle the aftermath of a mass suicide of local youth. Less likely: hilarious black comedy “Tentigo”, which (like Peru’s submission last year) focuses on an elderly person’s erection, two-person ideological debate “My Red Comrade”, and “Kandak Sema”, about impoverished women who arrange marriages with elderly people abroad. Highly deserving but unlikely: “Sand” (Rotterdam 2023) is an acclaimed film about the homecoming of a Tamil rebel, and it (shockingky) was approved for a local release in November…but war wounds may be too recent for them to consider a Tamil film.

Taiwan- OFFICIAL: “Old Fox” It’s official! On August 15^th, Taiwan became the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to select their pick for the Oscars, and they went with “Old Fox” from a list of 14 (unnamed) candidates, which looks like it included Wei Te-sheng’s cancer drama “Big”. Wei was shortlisted for “Seediq Bale”. “Old Fox”, a drama about an 11-year old who develops a friendship with his landlord, won Best Taiwanese Film at the 2024 Taipei Film Festival but failed to get a Best Picture nomination at the 2023 Golden Horse Film Festival (where Chinese-language films from all countries compete).

Tajikistan- “Fish on the Hook” Tajikistan submitted a film for the first time in 18 years last year but it wasn’t accepted because Tajikistan didn’t have a recognized committee. Tajikistan and Iran speak dialects of the Persian language and both Tajikistan’s 2005 and 2023 submissions were Iranian co-productions with Iranian directors. In June, Tajikistan and Iran (and Russia) announced the premiere of a new co-production with a Tajik director called “Fish on the Hook” (Рыбка на крючке). There are no details about it online but I don’t see Tajikistan with any other options.

Thailand- “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” Thailand appears to have a fairly easy decision this year since “How to Make Million Before Grandma Dies”, a drama about an opportunistic young man who moves in with his wealthy grandmother to try and manoeuver himself into the will, has been a commercial and critical hit. The Thai Academy usually goes with a fairly commercial pick so this makes even more sense now that the film got a Netlflix screening deal. This is likely to be Thailand’s pick (some are even predicting an Oscar nomination but that’s probably pushing things) but their other options include “Uranus 2324” (a sci-fi movie, also on Netflix), gay marriage drama “The Paradise of Thorns”, historical anime “2475 Dawn of Revolution”, or arthouse drama “Morrison”. The most useful precusor, the Thai Supphanahong Film Awards appear to have been discontinued due to an intra-industry dispute.

Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” Uzbekistan competed for the Oscars twice in 2020-2021 but their committee website seems to be defunct. If they somehow manage to get their act together, it will probably be arthouse festival drama “Monday” or epic period movie “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” about one of Uzbekistan’s great historical figures. I can’t find a release date for “Monday”, which is likely the better film, and Uzbekistan is likely to follow Kazakhstan in its propensity for expensive costume dramas.  

Vietnam- “The Last Wife”  Vietnam’s recent submissions have tended to skew very “commercial”, though last year was an exception. On paper, the strongest candidate is Victor Vu’s Netflix melodrama “The Last Wife”. Vu has been picked twice in the past eight years and “Wife” is a glossy period drama that got decent reviews and also scored big at the local box office. It’s about a girl forced to marry an important local official as his third wife despite still being in love with her childhood sweetheart. “Cu Chi Never Cries” (Berlinale), an intergenerational arthouse piece, and “Mai”, another Netflix melodrama by a previous submitted director, could also be selected. Rounding out the Top 5: “Impermanent Residents”, a thriller about two very unlucky babysitters, and “Sang Den”, about a music troupe. Not eligible: “Viet and Nam”, which appears to have been banned in Vietnam.