FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below. 

First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all. 

Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss. 

Here are my predictions:

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1. BRAZIL, “I’m Still Here”

2. FRANCE, “Emilia Perez”

3. GERMANY, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

So, these three are the consensus favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three. 

People who have seen all three films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner. 

Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous. 

IN A STRONG POSITION:

4. IRELAND, “Kneecap”

5. ITALY, “Vermiglio”

6. ICELAND, “Touch”

The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible). 

That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5. 

DARK HORSES:

7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”

8. LATVIA, “Flow”

9. THAILAND, “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”

These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen. 

DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot. 

 LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it.  That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out. 

THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.   

PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:

10. PALESTINE, “From Ground Zero”

11. CANADA, “Universal Language”

12. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Waves”

PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle. 

I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round. 

As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly. 

NO CHANCE:

13. NORWAY, “Armand”

14. UNITED KINGDOM, “Santosh”

15. SENEGAL, “Dahomey”

"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light". 

I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see. 

Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either. 

I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy. 

My predictions:

1. Wander to Wonder             (my #2)

2. Yuck! 

3. ME

4. A Crab in the Pool

5. A Bear Named Wojtek

6. Beautiful Men

7. Maybe Elephants

8. In the Shadow of the Cypress

9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde        (my personal favorite, and my winner)

10. Origami

11. The 21

12. Bottle George

13. Magic Candies

14. Wild-Tempered Clavier

15. Percebes

Oscar International Film Predictions- the Asia/Pacific Region

Here are my predictions for the 28 countries of the Asia-Pacific region....

Afghanistan- “The Sharp Edge of Peace” Since the overthrow of the pro-“modernity” Ghani regime by Taliban thugs in 2021, Afghanistan’s small film industry has been decimated as most artists fled the country. Afghanistan had been producing beautiful low-budget films for the past 20 years. While films have not been completely banned like during the first Taliban occupation, filmmakers have been told that women cannot be on screen, nor can there be a musical soundtrack, and they are using the former Film Studies program to produce Islamic films. It would be wonderful (but surprising) if Afghan filmmakers in exile could form a committee to highlight Afghan cinema. They could choose “The Sharp Edge of Peace”, about Afghan women trying to work within the system to obtain some semblance of women’s rights in contemporary Afghanistan. Currently based abroad, director Roya Sadat is one the country’s leading female directors and one of her films was submitted to the Oscars in 2017. “Kamay”, a documentary analyzing the suicide of a young university student before the Taliban takeover, would also be a worthy submission. It should be noted that an Afghan-British director, Elham Ehsas, was shortlisted in the Best Live-Action Short category last year. Afghanistan is still present on the international film scene.

Australia- “The Wolves Always Come At Night” You’d think most of English-speaking Australia’s submission would come from the Aboriginal communities….but most of them are the result of Australian directors working abroad. Only one of their last ten submissions was Aboriginal (“Charlie’s Country”) and only one was an immigrant story (“Shayda”). The other eight were made in Afghanistan (twice), Bhutan, Cambodia, Italy, Laos, Macedonia and Vanuatu. We could add Greece or Mongolia to that list this year. Documentary “The Wolves Always Come At Night” was made by Berlin-based Australian filmmaker Gabrielle Brady in Mongolia. It’s a docudrama similar in style to “Story of the Weeping Camel”, this time following a nomadic family affected by climate change. It’s set to premiere in Toronto and it’s unclear if it will get a theatrical release before September 30. If it doesn’t, I expect Canada will go with “Brando With a Glass Eye”, an unorthodox thriller made (in Greek) by a Greek-Australian director in New York.

Bangladesh- “A House Named Shahana” Bangladesh is in the middle of a political crisis, but I’m optimistic things will settle down in September. Bangladesh hasn’t missed an opportunity to send a film since 2011. Bangladesh is one of the only countries that has never sent a female-helmed film so I’m hoping they send “A House Named Shahana”, about a divorced woman who refuses to let social stigma affect her life in the conservative town where she lives. It’s certainly the best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though it doesn’t seem to have been released locally, and time is short. Director Mostafa Sarwar Farooki has been picked three times – more than any other Bangladeshi director – and he has two family dramas eligible this year (“Something Like An Autobiography” and “Last Defenders of Monogamy”) and Bangladesh has also had two films in competition at the (heavily boycotted) Moscow Film Festival (“Scent of Sin” and “Nirvana”). None of these four have great reviews, but I could see them 2024 Moscow Jury Prize winner “Nirvana” (a silent b&w film) or the scandalous “Scent of Sin”, which was finally released this year after months of haggling over its sexual frankness. Mafia drama “Toofan” is one of the biggest box-office hits of all time in Bangladesh and though it’s not what Bangladesh typically sends, it has gotten good reviews and could compete in a weak year if “Shahana” is not eligible.

Bhutan- “Agent of Happiness” Tiny Bhutan has only sent three films to the Oscars but the last two (both by Pawo Choyning Dorji) were shortlisted (and “Lunana” was nominated!). Bhutan launched an open call for submissions for the first time last year (receiving four, although the titles were not publicly announced) meaning that they might be in the race to stay…This year, I think they’ll send Sundance documentary “Agent of Happiness”, co-directed by a young Bhutanese from the country’s minority Hindu community and a Hungarian. Khynetse Norbu (“The Cup”, “Travellers & Magicians”), who in my opinion is Bhutan’s superior director, has a new movie called “Pig at the Crossing” but this seems to have premiered using an experimental digital worldwide release and thus would appear to be ineligible.

Cambodia- “Rendez-vous with Pol Pot” With film production mostly limited to gruesome horror movies and a few rom-coms, Cambodia failed to send a film last year for the first time since 2014…just one year after deservingly making the shortlist for the decidedly not Cambodian “Return to Seoul”. This year, Rithy Panh (who has made three of Cambodia’s eleven submissions) had a new drama at Cannes (it’s not a documentary, though it’s been incorrectly described as one) about a troupe of three French journalists who are invited to interview the genocidal dictator in the 1970s. Unlikely: horror film “The Night Curse of Reatrei” has gotten quite reviews and been exported to other countries in East Asia. 

China- “” TBD....China is difficult because they don't actually pick Oscar-worthy films but seemingly choose a big-budget film at ransom. 

Fiji- Nothing  Fiji sent a film once in 2005 but they don’t have a developed native film industry and they won’t send anything this year.

Hong Kong- “All Shall Be Well” Hong Kong was disqualified last year because AMPAS alleged a conflict of interest because an unnamed actor from the winning film was on the selection committee…but they’ve confirmed their intention to return this year. Hong Kong has a wide-open race. Hong Kong’s Academy wavers between gritty triad dramas (3 times in the past ten years), commercial melodramas (three times…I didn’t like these at all), arthouse films selected for major festivals (3 times, including one Oscar nominee) and one big action flick. This year, they have six main contenders. In alphabetical order, they are (1)- “All Shall Be Well”, an LGBT inheritance drama that won the Teddy Award in Berlin and opened the 2024 Hong Kong Film Festival, (2)- “The Goldfinger”, an all-star triad crime drama reuniting the team of “Infernal Affairs” that inspired “The Departed”, (3)- “In Broad Daylight”, a locally-themed melodrama about abuses in elderly care homes and the Hong Kong health care system, (4)- “She’s Got No Name”, a Zhang Ziyi period melodrama that premiered Out of Competition at Cannes, (5)- “Time Still Turns the Pages”, a small family/school drama that was the only Hong Kong film nominated in the top category at the Golden Horse Awards, and (6)- “Twilight of the Warriors”, another all-star crime drama, but with less starpower and better reviews than “Goldfinger”. If they go with reviews, “All Shall Be Well”, “In Broad Daylight”, and “Time Still Turns the Pages” have the advantage. If they want something “big and fancy”, then they’ll pick between “The Goldfinger”, “She’s Got Your Name” and “Twilight of the Warriors”. There’s not really a middle ground this year and I could see Hong Kong picking any of these films (I haven’t seen them but I’m hoping for one of the three critically acclaimed ones).  Dark horses: Dante Lam’s “Bursting Point” got bad reviews, but his two previous Oscar submissions were also terrible so maybe that doesn’t matter. My prediction: a surprise win for “All Shall Be Well”, if the LGBT storyline doesn’t make them squeamish.  Runner-ups: (and almost equally likely): “Twilight of the Warriors” and “Time Still Turns the Pages”. But this will be close.  

India- “All We Imagine As Light” But I need some more time to think about this one....

Indonesia- “Andragogy” Indonesia is hard to predict because their Academy – unlike most - is open to all sorts of films and genres ranging from horror (2020) to box-office hit comedies (2022) to controversial arthouse (2019). For this reason, they send some of the most entertaining films each year (my favorite, by far, was “Marlina the Murderer”). They’ve got quite a few potential options this year, including (alphabetically) “Andragogy”, a topical drama about social media that premiered at last year’s Toronto Film Festival, “Borderless Fog”, a crime drama by a director who has been passed over before, “Falling in Love Like in Movies”, a well-reviewed comedy-drama, “Grave Torture”, a horror film by box-office draw Joko Anwar, “Ipar Adalah Maut”, a marriage melodrama, “13 Bombs”, an action flick by a previously selected director, “Women from Rote Island” which dominated the local film awards, and “Yohanna” (Rotterdam), about a nun who helps victims of child labor. At least four of these (“Fog”, “Andragogy”, “Falling in Love” and “Bombs”) have U.S. Netflix deals. Of these eight, I think the frontrunners are the two comedy-dramas, “Andragogy” and “Falling in Love” which have U.S. distribution deals, confirmed Indonesian cinematic releases, and some of the best reviews of the group. Add the Toronto film festival prestige, 17 Indonesian Film Awards nominations (it won just two), and the shades of “Teachers’ Lounge” and I think “Andragogy” will be the one. I predict the B&W arthouse of “Falling in Love” will come second, “Rote Island” (which I don’t think was released in cinemas) in third, “Grave Torture” fourth and “13 Bombs” rounding out the Top 5.

Japan- “Evil Does Not Exist” Last year, Japan had to choose between four likely Oscar nominees (“Boy and the Heron”, “Godzilla Minus One” and “Perfect Days”, which actually got Oscar nominations, plus Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Monster”) challenging the “one film per country” rule. But this year should be a much easier decision. Four of the past six years, Japan picked a film that competed for the Palme d’Or (and a fifth film, “Plan 75”, was in Un Certain Regard). But they had no films in Competition at Cannes (or Berlin) and the one UCR title (obscure queer drama “My Sunshine”) doesn’t look like an especially likely choice. But Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Evil Does Not Exist” premiered at Venice 2023, where it won the Grand Jury Prize and although it doesn’t have the same buzz as the inexplicably popular “Drive My Car”, reviews have been very, very good. It’s about a town threatened by a disruptive real estate project and it’s NOT three hours long so I’m far more interested in it than the overrated mess of “Car”. Japan often makes odd decisions but this year they really don’t have any other options nearly as good. Other films on their (internal) shortlist are likely to include WWII anime “Totto-Chan: The Little Girl at the Window” (Annecy), Takeshi Kitano’s new action movie “Kubi” (but the Japanese have never been fans of Kitano-san) and “All the Long Nights” a slice-of-life drama about two mismatched coworkers with anxiety disorders. But “Evil” should be an easy selection.

Kazakhstan- “The Divorce” Kazakhstan didn’t send a film last year, even though they had two very well-regarded entries, including “Bauryna Salu” (San Sebastian), which certainly had better reviews than most of their recent submissions. Some Kazakh filmmakers complained they weren’t even aware there was a call for entries (though they may be their fault). Still, it was only the second time since Kazakhstan joined in 2006 that they failed to enter…so I assume they’ll return this year. “Zhambyl- A New Era” is the sort of state-supported costume drama that they usually send….but this biopic of a revered 19^th century poet will likely be difficult to translate (poetry is hard) so I’m predicting they send “The Divorce”, a clever drama during the early days of Kazakhstan, which won Best Picture at the Shanghai Film Festival. Less likely: WWII drama “Qara Qyz”, bleak character study “Madina” (Tokyo), plus the prolific Adilkhan Yerzhanov has a new movie (“Steppenwolf”) about a missing child…but Kazakhstan usually ignores Yerzhanov (they submitted him once and rejected his submission last year).

Korea- “Exhuma” SouthKorea announced that it would be considering 15 films to represent the country at the Oscars. There don’t appear to be any strong Oscar contenders…but here’s my tiered ranking:

No Chance- “Cabriolet”, “Victory”, “Yeonryeon” These three obscure options- a cheerleader comedy, a road trip drama about a woman with cancer, and a film/director that I actually had to add to IMDB- hardly seem likely to be seriously considered.

Highly Unlikely- “I, Executioner”, “Our Season”, “Picnic” An action movie sequel, a tearjerker about the visit of a mother’s ghost, and a soap opera about elderly friends…..they don’t have the reviews or a high-enough profile to represent Korea. Also, the director of “I, Executioner” was just picked two years ago.

Long Shots- “Escape”, “FAQ”, “Revolver” These genre films – a children’s sci-fi movie, an exciting thriller about a North Korean defector and a revenge movie - have good reviews…but don’t seem serious enough to me to be picked.

Dark Horses- “Citizen of a Kind”, “House of the Seasons”, “Noryang, Deadly Sea” “Citizen of a Kind” is a genuine crowdpleaser about a single mom who takes revenge after being scammed. “House of the Seasons” is a sprawling family drama that Variety called “a beautifully poised debut” and that highlights Korean culture. “Noryang, Deadly Sea” is an impressive-looking, big-budget period drama about 16^th century military battles between Korea and Japan. But they all look like the ‘runner-ups’ for Korea in recent years. Korea tends to favor action/historical thrillers (but not costume dramas). The director of “Noryang” has come close to repping Korea twice for “War of the Arrows” and “The Admiral”…so he has a chance if the Korean Academy feels he is overdue.

Frontrunners- “12.12: the Day”, “Exhuma”, “Land of Happiness”. These are the three frontrunenrs. “12.12” and “Land of Happiness” are both about the 1979 political assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and Korea sent political thriller three of the past eight years. “12.12” was the highest-grossing Korean film of 2023, and “Exhuma” is (so far) the highest-grossing film of 2024. “Exhuma” is one of only two contenders that appeared at a major film festival (Berlin; “I Executioner” appeared out of competition at Cannes). “Land of Happiness” hasn’t premiered yet (it will be released August 14) so we don’t know how good it is…but it is the final film of “Parasite” star Lee Sun-kyun who was bullied into committing suicide by Korean police in 2023…so there’s quite a sentimental angle there.  “12.12” arguably has the best reviews and best matches what Korea usually sends…but because “12.12” and “Happiness” are so similar they may split the vote…so I think horror-drama “Exhuma” may emerge victorious. But I wouldn’t be surprised by any of these three.

Kyrgyzstan- “Bride Kidnapping” Kyrgyzstan sent a film by Aktan Abdykalykov for the fifth time last year and I thought “This is What I Remember” was his best ever. Unfortunately, it was disqualified over a release date issue but Kyrgyzstan launched a call for submissions last month so it seems they aren’t cross. In addition to Aktan’s five submissions, Kyrgyzstan has sent films made by his son Mirlan twice, so they’re sure to send “Bride Kidnapping” (Busan) about this terrible Kyrgyz custom that was also the subject of an Oscar Short Film nomination two years ago.  But the film faces stiff competition from box-office hit “Beyish” (aka Heaven is at Mother’s Feet), a national hit which has been billed as the biggest film in Kyrgyzstan’s cinematic history. It’s about a mentally challenged man who dreams of accompanying his elderly mother on a pilgrimage to Mecca. In any other year, “The Gift”, about a tomboy forced to take on male roles in the family, and “Error 404”, a psychological drama, would contend….but not against these two big movies.  UPDATE: Big hit "Heaven is at Mother's Feet" was selected.....Not a huge surprise. 

Laos- “The Signal” Communist Laos sent a film to the Oscars once in 2017 – horror-drama “Dearest Sister”, which exceeded my expectations. They have two films on the circuit this year, including another horror-drama (“The Signal”) which premiered in Laos in November after debuting at the Shanghai Film Festival. It’s about a village girl who becomes involved with a series of family mysteries when she begins working for a new family in the capital. “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” is also around, but it was made by a British director.

Malaysia- “Abang Adik” Could “Abang Adik” make Malaysian Oscar history? Like most years, the best Malaysian films are in Chinese, but the Malaysian Academy has only selected Malay-language films to represent the country. But “Abang Adik” is one of the first Chinese-language films to get a Best Pic nomination at the Malaysian Film Festival (non-Malay films used to be relegated to their own category) and it got a Netflix deal as well. “Adik”, about two orphaned brothers one of whom is deaf, is also easily the most acclaimed Malaysian film of the year (its rivals are “Snow in Midsummer” from Venice, but that’s in Chinese as well, and “Fire on Water”, which is in Tamil, another minority language). So Malaysia has a dilemma….choose an acclaimed film that is mostly in Chinese, choose a lesser-known Malay alternative (possibly Paralympics drama “Gold”), or take the year off (which they did in 2022). They’re all equally likely but I’m hoping Malaysia does the right thing.

Mongolia- “If Only I Could Hibernate” The favorite for Mongolia is “If Only I Could Hibernate” was one of the first Mongolian films to appear at Cannes, when it got an Un Certain Regard berth last year. It’s about a bright but troubled Mongolian teen whose mother suddenly leaves him in charge of the family while she goes to work in the countryside. It got good reviews and moved to Mongolian cinemas in early 2024. However, it’s not a sure thing…. previously submitted directors Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam (picked in 2022) and Erdenebileg Ganbold (picked in 2019) have new action-packed films set in the country’s nomadic countryside. I give Ganbold’s “Wolf Warriors”, a period epic set in 800 B.C., the edge over Baljinnyam’s “Mongol”, about political and romantic intrigue within a tight-knit nomadic community. I have “White Flag”, about modern female nomads, in 4^th place.

Nepal- “A Road to a Village” Nepal had no less than four exciting new films at major film festivals this past year- “Pooja Sir” (Venice Horizons 2024),  “Red Suitcase” (Venice Horizons 2023), “A Road to a Village” (Toronto 2023), “Shambhala" (Berlinale 2024). Three of these four (all but “Suitcase”) are made by respected national directors. The two older ones- horror-drama “Red Suitcase” and village drama “Road to a Village” are eligible this year. “Pooja” will almost certainly be eligible next year, while the status of “Shambhala” is unclear. When Nepal has an international arthouse option, they usually go for it…so “A Road to a Village”, a slow-paced film about how a new road affects a rural community- is the likely choice….but I’m rooting for the “Twilight Zone”-esque “Suitcase”. If they want to go with something more local (which is usually all they have), they’ll probably pick one of two social dramas- “Pujar Sarki” (caste discrimination) or “Dimag Kharab” (overseas employment).  

New Zealand- “Ka Whawhai Tonu” New Zealand has one of the easiest decisions of the year thanks to the box-office hit Maori historical epic “Ka Whawhai Tonu”, which has also gotten very good reviews. Set in 1864, its about battles between Maori and colonial New Zealand forces and it appears to be more than 50% in the Maori language.

Pakistan- “The Glassmaker” Pakistan often sends some of the most interesting and daring films each year. “Joyland” and “Circus of Life” were brilliant (“Circus” probably deserved the Oscar)….”In Flames”, though not my favorite, was an original genre effort. This year, the Pakistanis will probably send their first-ever hand-drawn animated film- “The Glassmaker”- said to be inspired by Studio Ghibli’s historical films. It’s been released in Pakistan in Urdu- and English-versions and Pakistan may try to submit it to launch a long-shot campaign for Best Animated Feature. That’s the likely submission but also in the running are (2^nd place) “Gunjal”, about the murder of a child labor activist, “Na Baligh Afraad”, a comedy about two teenagers discovering pornography, and “Yasmeen’s Element”, a drama about a rural schoolgirl directed by a Pakistan-American from Arkansas.  

Philippines- “GomBurZa” The Philippines usually opts for a film from a major international film festival or from their own domestic Cinemalaya indie film festival. Options from major film festivals are slim. Lav Diaz is premiering his latest 4-hour film, “Phantosmia”, at Venice and there is a teen pregnancy drama (“Sunshine”), but I doubt either will get a domestic release by September 30. “Fin” (aka “Love and Videotapes”) played at Cinemalaya 2023 (winning Best Director) and at Berlinale (in the 14+ Section) so that’s definitely a possibility. Last year, they went with Cinemalaya winner “The Missing” (a great choice!) and if they want a Cinemalaya indie, they could look at last year’s Jury Prize winner (“Ang Duyan ng Magiting” with Dolly DeLeon) or one of this year’s two big winners (“Tumandok” and “Kono basho”, which together won more than half the prizes)….but I can’t see that any of them got a domestic release either. So, they may be forced to send something a bit more commercial. “Firefly”, “GomBurZa” and “Mallari” each won Best Picture at a major Philippine awards show (Metro Manila, FAP and FAMAS respectively). “GomBurZa”, a historical drama about three Filipino priests martyred for standing up to Spanish colonial rule, was nominated at all four major national film awards (the three mentioned earlier plus Gawan Urian). I can confirm that all three are eligible. My predictions: the Philippines could struggle because they’ll want to send one of the films that may not have been released domestically, probably Cinemalaya winner “Tumandok” (The Inhabitants), a docudrama filmed with non-professional actors from the Ati indigenous community. So, I’m predicting “GomBurZa”, which has both been warmly received by critics and audiences and secured a Netflix deal in the U.S. I have “Tumandok” in second, “Firefly”, a fantasy-drama, in third, “Phantosmia” in fourth, and “Fin” (about a boy searching for his long-lost father) in fifth. Unlikely but possible: “Ang Duyan ng Magiting”, “Hyphen”, “Kono Basho” and documentary “Maria”.

Singapore- “Wonderland” Singapore has mostly produced minority co-productions this year, but they have two films about fathers and their kids. They could send “Tomorrow is a Long Time” (Berlin 2023) about the relationship between a widower and his teenage son, but are more likely to send “Wonderland”, a drama about two fathers and their daughters, starring comedian Mark Lee.

Sri Lanka- “Whispering Mountains” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film since 2009 but I’m really hoping they return with “Whispering Mountains” (Busan, Rotterdam), a weird and well-reviewed mystery-horror-drama about the government’s efforts to handle the aftermath of a mass suicide of local youth. Less likely: hilarious black comedy “Tentigo”, which (like Peru’s submission last year) focuses on an elderly person’s erection, two-person ideological debate “My Red Comrade”, and “Kandak Sema”, about impoverished women who arrange marriages with elderly people abroad. Highly deserving but unlikely: “Sand” (Rotterdam 2023) is an acclaimed film about the homecoming of a Tamil rebel, and it (shockingky) was approved for a local release in November…but war wounds may be too recent for them to consider a Tamil film.

Taiwan- OFFICIAL: “Old Fox” It’s official! On August 15^th, Taiwan became the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to select their pick for the Oscars, and they went with “Old Fox” from a list of 14 (unnamed) candidates, which looks like it included Wei Te-sheng’s cancer drama “Big”. Wei was shortlisted for “Seediq Bale”. “Old Fox”, a drama about an 11-year old who develops a friendship with his landlord, won Best Taiwanese Film at the 2024 Taipei Film Festival but failed to get a Best Picture nomination at the 2023 Golden Horse Film Festival (where Chinese-language films from all countries compete).

Tajikistan- “Fish on the Hook” Tajikistan submitted a film for the first time in 18 years last year but it wasn’t accepted because Tajikistan didn’t have a recognized committee. Tajikistan and Iran speak dialects of the Persian language and both Tajikistan’s 2005 and 2023 submissions were Iranian co-productions with Iranian directors. In June, Tajikistan and Iran (and Russia) announced the premiere of a new co-production with a Tajik director called “Fish on the Hook” (Рыбка на крючке). There are no details about it online but I don’t see Tajikistan with any other options.

Thailand- “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” Thailand appears to have a fairly easy decision this year since “How to Make Million Before Grandma Dies”, a drama about an opportunistic young man who moves in with his wealthy grandmother to try and manoeuver himself into the will, has been a commercial and critical hit. The Thai Academy usually goes with a fairly commercial pick so this makes even more sense now that the film got a Netlflix screening deal. This is likely to be Thailand’s pick (some are even predicting an Oscar nomination but that’s probably pushing things) but their other options include “Uranus 2324” (a sci-fi movie, also on Netflix), gay marriage drama “The Paradise of Thorns”, historical anime “2475 Dawn of Revolution”, or arthouse drama “Morrison”. The most useful precusor, the Thai Supphanahong Film Awards appear to have been discontinued due to an intra-industry dispute.

Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” Uzbekistan competed for the Oscars twice in 2020-2021 but their committee website seems to be defunct. If they somehow manage to get their act together, it will probably be arthouse festival drama “Monday” or epic period movie “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” about one of Uzbekistan’s great historical figures. I can’t find a release date for “Monday”, which is likely the better film, and Uzbekistan is likely to follow Kazakhstan in its propensity for expensive costume dramas.  

Vietnam- “The Last Wife”  Vietnam’s recent submissions have tended to skew very “commercial”, though last year was an exception. On paper, the strongest candidate is Victor Vu’s Netflix melodrama “The Last Wife”. Vu has been picked twice in the past eight years and “Wife” is a glossy period drama that got decent reviews and also scored big at the local box office. It’s about a girl forced to marry an important local official as his third wife despite still being in love with her childhood sweetheart. “Cu Chi Never Cries” (Berlinale), an intergenerational arthouse piece, and “Mai”, another Netflix melodrama by a previous submitted director, could also be selected. Rounding out the Top 5: “Impermanent Residents”, a thriller about two very unlucky babysitters, and “Sang Den”, about a music troupe. Not eligible: “Viet and Nam”, which appears to have been banned in Vietnam.

Oscar International Film Predictions for Latin America, North America and the Caribbean

And here are my predictions for the countries of The Americas:

1.      Argentina- “El jockey” (Kill the Jockey) Argentina doesn’t always choose the front runner but they rarely choose a surprise…so it would seem that their submission is likely to be one of three big new releases- “The Blue Star” (San Sebastian 2023), “El Jockey” (set to premiere in Venice) and “Simon of the Mountain” (Cannes). The Spanish director of “Blue Star” has spoken publicly of his hope that the film will go to the Oscars, but it seems more likely to aim for Spain. “Simon” got good reviews at Cannes for its story of a youth with mental/cognitive disabilities…but it would have to arrange a qualifying release since it’s scheduled to premiere in Argentinian cinemas in October. That means the upcoming “El Jockey”, whose director was selected in 2018 for “El angel”, is automatically the favorite. Starring Nahuel Perez Biscayart, it’s about a male and female jockey fleeing a mob boss. Less likely: “Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” (SXSW 2023), “The Freshly Cut Grass” (Tribeca), “A Ravaging Wind”, documentary “The Trial” (Berlinale 2023), and “Vera and the Pleasure of Others” (San Sebastian). Of these, the acclaimed 3-hour “The Trial” (El juicio) seems most likely even though I’ve never heard of Argentina considering a doc before. Likely out: A lot of people were talking about Lucia Puenzo’s “Electrophilia” last year but reviews were not great….

2.      Bolivia- “Mano propia” I lived in Bolivia 2022-2024 and can honestly say that Bolivian cinema makes better movies with fewer resources than its wealthier neighbors. Movies like “Tu Me Manques” and “Utama” deserved far more consideration from AMPAS...They screwed up, because these films deserved at least a shortlist spot. Bolivia has had a slow movie year so far with only one major national release- “Old Soldiers” (Viejos soldados), a big war movie about the Chaco War by Jorge Sanjines…a respected 87-year old director who helped establish Bolivian cinema in the 1960s. Last I heard, there were no English subtitles…the same thing that doomed his film that was going to be submitted in 2012. I’m pretty sure Bolivia will send “Mano propia” by Gory Patino who represented Bolivia in 2018 with the wonderful thriller “Muralla” and would have again in 2022 (for "Pseudo") if “Utama” hadn’t been the best-reviewed Bolivian film in decades. “Mano propia”, a thriller about vigilante justice, is set to premiere a few days before the deadline. Also eligible: “Nicola” is a fantastic new indie LGBT documentary that opened during Pride Month and "An Embrace from the Chaco", is a rare Bolivian animated film….but they're probably too small to compete against these two big directors.

 

3.      Brazil- “I’m Still Here” In 2024, Brazil had just two films in the Main Competition of major film festivals, and they’re both by very well-respected directors- Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” (Venice) and Karim Ainouz’s “Motel Destino”. “I’m Still Here”, about an unassuming woman forced into political activism after Brazil’s military regime abducts her husband, is the clear favorite. Salles hasn’t made a fully Brazilian film in 15 years, and “Here” reunites Salles with grande dame Fernanda Montenegro (who will be 95 this year) who he helped to a much-deserved Oscar nomination for “Central Station”. It has also been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics which helps a lot. It’s hard to believe, but Brazil hasn’t been nominated in this category since then and “I’m Still Here” may be their best chance in years. However, Salles refused to submit “Linha de Passe” (his last Brazilian film) to the Oscars saying that it was “a far more complex process than it seems….requiring a dedication of several months”. But “I’m Still Here” could actually win….so I BET he’ll agree to try again. Karim Ainouz’s erotic thriller “Motel Destino” premiered at Cannes and reviews have been good but not Oscar worthy.  I plan to update this when Brazil comes up with their “longlist” of official contenders to see if Salles and Ainouz are in play or not. Other films likely to appear on that list include “Betania”, “Heartless”, “The Hijacking of Flight 375”, “Mussum” and “Power Alley”.

4.      Canada- “Universal Language” The hot word is that Canada is going to go with the quirky “Universal Language”, an odd little film by Anglophone filmmaker Matthew Rankin which reimagines Manitoba as a bilingual province speaking Persian and French. It won the Director’s Fortnight Audience Award at Cannes and has gotten very good reviews. However, Canada’s Academy, which used to be so good at picking nominees, has ignored real contenders (including “Falcon Lake” in 2022 and “Solo” in 2023) for documentaries about non-Canadians, both good (“Rojek”) and not so good (“Eternal Spring”). So, “Language” is not a sure thing. “Kanaval”, about Haitian immigrants, or “Ru”, about Vietnamese immigrats, could threaten, as could upcoming dramas “Shepherd” (by the director of Canada’s 2019 submission) and “Le grand vide”. Dark horses: “1995”, an indie film about a man travelling the world making short films, “Red Rooms”, a thriller that got Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay nominees at the Canadian Screen Awards, and “Who By Fire”, which won the 14+ Best Film award at Berlinale.

5.      Chile- “In Her Place” The frontrunner for Chile is clearly two-time Oscar nominee Maite Alberdi’s first fiction feature, “In Her Place”, based on an acclaimed Chilean novel. The question is whether this legal drama about a secretary working on a sensationalist murder case is eligible. It’s set to be released on Netflix in October – after the Oscar deadline – so Chile would need to do a one-week qualifying release before then...and I'm pretty sure they will. They could also consider Bolivian co-production “The Dog Thief” (which has a Chilean director), “Maybe It's True What They Say About Us” (Quizás es cierto lo que dicen de nosotras) about a mother confronting a cult, abortion drama “Outsider Girls” and constitution documentary “Oasis”. Of these, I think “Outsider Girls” has the best chance to defeat Alberdi. UPDATE: Chile announced a six-film shortlist, which includes "In Her Place" and "Maybe It's True" alongside comedies "History and Geography" and "Bad Habits", thriller "Prison in the Andes" and sci-fi/drama "Analogos". I still think "In Her Place" will win this easily, with "Prison in the Andes" second because it highlights Chile's dictatorship history, and "Maybe It's True" in third. The other three will get participation trophies. 

6.      Colombia- “Skin in Spring” (La piel en primavera) I think Colombia will send “Skin in Spring”, a drama about a mother in Medellin seeking a second chance at love and life. It premiered in Berlin and has slightly warmer reviews than their other major contender from Berlin, “I Saw Three Black Nights”, about an elderly Afro-Bolivian man who encounters a paramilitary group while on an important personal journey. Their other three possibilities so far are “La suprema” (Toronto 2023), about an aspiring female boxer, “Malta” (SXSW 2024), about a Colombian saving money to emigrate to Europe, and “Salt Water”, an LGBT film about an adult who reconnects with the priest who molested him. Dark horses: two upcoming films at Toronto 2024 (“Horizonte” and “Pimpinero”) could premiere in time…but probably won’t. Andres Baiz directed one of Colombia’s best-ever submissions (“Satanas”) in 2007 so I’m very excited to see “Pimpinero”, an exciting new thriller.

7.      Costa Rica - “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde) Costa Rica will probably choose Berlinale Panorama winner “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde), about aging and sexuality among three older women. Central American films rarely win awards at an international level like this. It’s main competition is “Not Only the Bird is Beautiful” (No solo es hermoso el pájaro), a surreal drama about a man looking for a missing woman, which won Best Costa Rican film at the national film festival in July. Dark horse: documentary “Lo que olvidamos” tells the story of a middle-class activist gunned down by police while awaiting trial.

8.      Cuba- “Wild Woman” (La mujer salvaje) Cuba only sends films to the Oscars occasionally. Last year, the film’s “Nelsito’s World” appeared on the unofficial AMPAS list of films. It was assigned to a group of Oscar voters but was never downloaded to the Oscar screening room, and mysteriously disappeared from contention. Not sure what happened there, but Cuba has now been absent the past three years. If they do send a film, it’s almost sure to be “Wild Woman” (Toronto), which won some awards at the national film festival and which shows the influence of social media even in Communist Cuba. In a Cuban “Run Lola Run”-type scenario, a young mother out partying is suddenly thrust onto a quest to find her son and flee her neighborhood when a social media post seeks to incriminate and effectively “cancel” her. It’s one of the Latin American films I most want to see this year. Other possibilities: “Natural Phenomena” and “A Night with the Rolling Stones”.

9.      Dominican Republic – “Boca Chica” The Dominican Republic has a fierce race since all three movies I predicted last year (“La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Boca Chica”) are actually eligible this year, as are the two big winners at the 2024 National Film Awards (“The Art Dealer” and “Freddy”) and a few quirky festival offerings (“Pepe”, “Olivia & the Clouds” and “Bionico’s Bachata”) ….So, this will be a competitive and exciting race for the Dominican Republic. For the second year in a row, I’m predicting “Boca Chica” (Tribeca 2023) about the perils of a 12-year old girl coming-of-age in a tourist town famous for sex tourism. It’s arguably the best-reviewed of the eight contenders and seems to match the style of the films the Dominican Republic usually sends (last year was an outlier; they sent a commercial comedy). The DR often likes to submit its favorite directors again and again, which bodes well for “La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Pepe”.  Although reviews have generally been weak, the Berlin berth and Best Director win for “Pepe” should elevate the surreal hippopotamus drama to runner-up….the animal drama angle worked for “EO”. Dominican Film Awards winner “Freddy”, a biopic of a Dominican comedian, should come third, with Leticia Tonos’ innovative sci-fi drama “Aire” (starring Spanish star Paz Vega) fourth and drama “The Art Dealer” (El vendedor del arte) rounding out the Top 5.

10.  Ecuador- “Behind the Mist” (Al otro lado de la niebla) Ecuador had some bad luck last year. Their Academy had a change of leadership and they informed me that they were still awaiting approval for their new Oscar selection committee when last year’s deadline passed….but they committed to returning in 2024 and have already launched a call for submissions. The frontrunner has to be documentary “Al otro lado de la niebla” about Ecuador’s most famous director (Sebastian Cordero) and Ecuador’s most famous mountaineer on an exhibition to Nepal together. It’s directed by Cordero, who has been selected twice before and it got a local release in January. Their two other options are thriller “2 Days in Quito” and drama “On the Invention of Species”( La Invención de las Especies), about a young girl in the Galapagos Islands.

11.  El Salvador- “Indigo” (Añil) El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never participated in the Oscars. A Salvadoran co-production represented Honduras a few years ago, and the Salvadoran co-director has a new documentary (“Indigo”) analyzing the use of sexual violence against women in modern Salvadoran history. Also eligible: “Dangerous Desires” (El Placer De Dar Placer), a thriller about a bachelor party gone wrong.

12.  Greenland- “Twice Colonized” Politically part of Europe but geographically part of the Americas, Greenland (pop: 57,000) is the smallest country in the Oscar race. Although they submitted films in 2010 and 2012, they haven’t entered the race in over a decade. Some people are talking about “Kalak” (San Sebastian) a film about sexual trauma that was made in Greenland and is clearly about Greenlandic culture….but made by a Swedish director, starring a Norwegian lead actor, and featuring a mostly Danish crew. I’m not sure it would meet the nationality requirements, so I’m predicting “Twice Colonized” (Sundance), a documentary about activists fighting for indigenous Greenlandic rights. It’s much more likely to be considered “Greenlandic” (including a co-writer and co-producer).

13.  Guatemala- “Rita” Guatemala got its Oscar committee re-approved by AMPAS around 2015 and they’ve submitted three films since then. Two were made by Jayro Bustamente, including the shortlisted horror-drama “La Llorona”...so it would be foolish to expect Guatemala to submit anything other than Bustamente’s new film, “Rita”, another urban drama tinged with horror and fantasy. It looks great!

14.  Haiti- “Kidnapping Inc.” Haiti has sent films twice but it’s more unstable than usual this year so I doubt they are really thinking about making movies. Actress/director Gessica Geneus directed Haiti’s last submission and she stars in a new movie that was somehow made amidst the violence in Haiti last year- “Kidnapping Inc.”. According to IMDB, crew members were actually kidnapped during the production. I see this comedy-drama as Haiti’s only real option.

15.  Honduras- “Prisionera”  Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020 but their selection committee appears to be defunct. If they decide to submit, it will probably be “Prisionera”, about a woman who has been kidnapped to a remote forest location.

16.  Mexico- “Pedro Paramo” Mexico is always confusing but I’m predicting they send the ghostly “Pedro Paramo”, which is set to premiere in September in Toronto and then move to Netflix. Starring Tenoch Huerta (“Black Panther 2”) and written by Mateo Gil (who wrote the Oscar-winning “The Sea Inside”), this seems to have the pedigree to represent Mexico which usually picks films with Netflix deals…and very possibly get them another spot on the shortlist (they’ve somehow been shortlisted four years in a row without a single nomination, although I hated three out of four). The high-profile “Paramo” is likely to meet the same fate. “Sujo” (aka “Son of a Hitman”) won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and probably should be picked instead….will probably come second. A new film by Oscar nominee Carlos Carrera (and the only one I actually want to see) will come third with family telenovela-cum-thriller “Confessions”. Others likely to be on Mexico’s longlist: “Bad Actor” (Tallinn Black Nights), cockfighting thriller “Mi gallo” and Tatiana Huevo’s grandmas & granddaughters documentary “Echo”, revenge drama “The Day Everything Changed”, and, if eligible”, “Mexico 86” by Guatemalan-Belgian director Cesar Diaz. I expected more from Amat Escalante’s Netflix thriller “Lost in the Night” but that got rather poor reviews so it’s out of contention.

17.  Nicaragua- “Patrol”  Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010, even though they had quite a strong contender two years ago. They won’t send anything this year but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict documentary “Patrol” which has represented Nicaragua at some Latin American festivals this year. It’s about the devastating effect that miners and ranchers are having on a protected area in Nicaragua.

18.  Panama- “God Is A Woman” Last year, Panama joined the “ten films in a row” club (although one submission didn’t make the final list), the hallmark of a regular participant in this category. Four of these ten films were documentaries. If Panama chooses a documentary this year, it’s likely to be “Bila Burba” or “God Is a Woman”, both of which are about the trials of Panama’s indigenous communities. If they want a fiction film, they’ll probably consider “Chacaleria”, a crime drama, and “Despierta Mama”, about a missing girl. My prediction: “God is a Woman” by Franco-Panamanian Andres Peyrot, about the rediscovery of a lost film about Panama’s indgenous Kuna community. Runner-up: “Chacaleria”.

19.  Paraguay- “The Last” (Los ultimos) Paraguay has a fairly easy choice this year and will likely choose environmental documentary “The Last” (IDFA), whose director produced the award-winning “The Heiresses”…probably the closest Paraguay has ever come to the Oscar shortlist. It focuses on deforestation and wildfires in the vulnerable Gran Chaco region. If it doesn’t get a local release, they could send local horror film “Do No Enter” (No entres)….or not send anything at all like in 2019 when they refused to send any of films that were submitted.

  

20.  Peru- “Yana-Wara” Peru’s submission last year- “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli”- was a master-class in tragicomedy….funny, sentimental and sad. The year before, they sent the flawed but supremely original (and devastatingly sad) “Moon Heart”. Peru is one of the reasons I still try to watch all the films each year…even when so many of them aren’t good. Peru’s problem is that their leading films are often released months (or sometimes over a year) after they appear at festivals. So, having a release date on the books is key. That means this year’s two frontrunners are the Spanish-language “Reinas” (Queens) which premiered at Berlinale and will be released in Peru in August, and the Aymara-language “Yana-Wara”, which was released in April, nearly a year after premiering at last year’s Lima Film Festival. The Quechua-language “Daughter of the Moon” (Killapa Wawan) could join them in the unlikely event it gets a local release after its premiere at the Lima Film Festival last week. This is a tough choice….”Yana Wara”, about a respected Aymara elder accused of a mysterious murder, has a great backstory (the director died partway and the film was completed by his uncle) and slightly better reviews…..while “Reinas”, a family drama set amidst Peru’s political chaos in the 1990s, has the festival prestige of Berlin and Locarno. "Reinas" has already been shortlisted by Switzerland, where it appears to be the favorite...and the Peruvian Academy has a history of highlighting Indigenous stories so I’m predicting “Yana-Wara”…but this will be close. Dark horse: “Diogenes”, about two Quechua siblings being raised in a remote mountain area.  Likely eligible next year: “Through Rocks and Cloud” and “Kinra”, which were in this year's Main Competition at Lima, plus “Family Album” and next year’s probable submission “Los indomables”. 

21.  Puerto Rico- “Feet in the Sand” (Pies en la arena) Puerto Rico was uninvited from the Oscars in 2011 which I’ve always found extremely unfair. But last year, they were invited to submit a film to the Spanish Goyas for the first time- where they managed a nomination against more established Latin American countries. Hopefully this means they will be invited to the Oscars again soon. If they were allowed to send a film, it would probably be “Feet in the Sand”, about two illegal immigrants from Cuba and the Dominican Republic who try to build a new life in Puerto Rico. I was going to pick transgender drama “Fisherman’s Daughter” but it seems to be a majority Colombian production. Hope to welcome back Puerto Rico soon!

22.  Suriname- “Mother Suriname” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent a film just once in 2020. They don’t seem to have any local films this year, but they could consider “Mother Suriname”, a Netherlands-majority documentary by a Dutch director of Surinamese descent, about one hundred years of Surinamese history, as seen through the eyes of her late grandmother.

23.  Uruguay- “Don’t You Let Me Go” This year, Uruguayan filmmakers have worked mostly on minority co-productions but they’ll still definitely send something…and that is most likely to be “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame fuerte), which won the Nora Ephron award at Tribeca. It’s a spare 70-minute film about grief, as a woman mourns the loss of her best friend…and yet it does this with the sense of humor that the Uruguayan Academy has shown it loves. Co-director Leticia Jorge has been selected before. That’s the clear frontrunner but Uruguay made a surprise choice last year so hostage thriller “7 Bullets” could also be the one. Most Uruguayan productions this year are documentaries , so Back to the Light” (a blind woman) or “Pepe’s Dreams” (a former President) are dark horses. Eligible next year: zombie comedy “Summer Hit”, by the director of Un Certain Regard winner “Whisky”, will premiere Halloween week.

24.  Venezuela- “Mi tia Gilma” Venezuela has one of the most confusing races in Latin America this year…and not just because they’re going through a political crisis as dictator Nicolas Maduro tries to steal national elections held this summer. Despite contentious relations with the USA, the Venezuelan Academy hasn’t failed to send a film since 1996 (their 2005 submission arrived late after a dispute in Caracas)….and they’ve sent some truly wonderful films over the years (the best I’ve seen have been the two from Lorenzo Vigas, but I haven’t seen them all). Despite pre-election tensions, the annual Festival de Cine Venezolano took place as scheduled in June. The three big winners among the 24 candidates were “La sombra del Catire” (14 prizes including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay), “Visceral” (8 prizes including the Jury Prize) and “Mi tia Gilma” (2 prizes including Best First Film). "Catire" is tentatively scheduled to open in october, and “Visceral” is officially scheduled for November (after the September 30 deadline) and "Gilma" doesn't have a domestic release dates. “Children of the Revolution”, a potential contender from last year, has not been given permission to screen in Venezuelan cinemas by CNAC, which picks the Venezuelan nominee. So, what will they send? Maybe hybrid docudrama “Lost Chapters”, about a woman who returns from abroad to take her of her ailing grandmother? Human trafficking drama “Tango Bar”? Or “Hambre”, about two Venezuelans considering whether to migrate?  “Tango Bar” got a domestic release…but will any of the others? I’m certain to get this one wrong, but I’m going to predict Venezuela somehow manages a qualifying release for “Mi tia Gilma”, about a niece trying to help her upper-class aunt after she is brutally beaten by her husband, a senior military official. I have “Tango Bar” in second, mostly because it’s one of the only contenders that has actually been released.