And here is the biggest group....the 38 countries from Africa and the Middle East, including two (Madagascar and Rwanda) that have announced they plan to send a film for the first time. Last year, less than half of these countries (16) sent films and that will certainly be the case this year as well. I only guessed 3/16 correctly last year (Egypt, Lebanon and Senegal)....It was my worst record worldwide.
ALGERIA- “Bin u Bin, Elsewhere at the Border” Algeria
is one of the few regular participants from Africa. Their
selection committee has met every year since 2015, submitting 8
films over that ten-year period. This year
they don’t have any really strong Oscar contenders but they do have a few
options that would proudly promote and represent Algerian cinema. I think
they’ll pick “Bin U Bin, Elsewhere at the Border” (Red Sea), a dreamy
crime-thriller starring Salim Kechiouche as an aspiring filmmaker (who does not
own a camera) who makes his living smuggling goods in the desert. It’s the debut of a
new director named Mohamed Lakhdar Tati ….could he be related to the renowned Mohammed
Lakhdar-Hamina, who passed away this year? I’m not sure. Algeria could also
send “The Vanishing” aka L’effacement (Marrakech), a French-language
film about a young man rebelling against his father, or “Land of Vengeance” aka
Terre de vengeance (Cairo), about a wealthy man who discovers his wife
has taken off with another man while he was in prison. Dark horse: “Roqia”, a
new horror-drama (an unusual genre for Algeria) premiering at Venice Critics
Week this month.
BURKINA FASO- “Katanga, la danse des scorpions” I mentioned
last year that “Katanga, la danse des scorpions” would probably represent Burkina Faso when it was finally
released. Not only is it a gorgeous-looking retelling of Shakespeare's Macbeth by a respected filmmaker, but in 2025 it became the first
Burkinabe film in almost thirty years to win Best Picture (and several other awards) at the FESPACO
Pan-African Film Festival. If it’s released in cinemas, it will
definitely be Burkina Faso’s third-ever Oscar submission, and one of the
films I most want to see from the list.
CAMEROON- “Abakwa” Cameroon has sent films five years
in a row and it looks like they intend to stay in the competition. All five films
were from Cameroon’s English-speaking Northwest Region. That bodes well for
“Abakwa”, a crime drama set in the Northwest amidst a drug war. This preachy anti-drug movie looks like what the
Cameroon Academy usually sends. However, a far better choice would be
“Untamable”, a police thriller that premiered at Cannes Director’s Fortnight….That's quite
a big deal for Cameroon. The film is in French and made by a famous
French-Cameroonian actor. We’ll see exactly how biased the Cameroonian Academy
is and if they would really pick an English-language cheapie instead of the better regarded “Untamable”.
I bet they pick the English option. Sigh.
CHAD- “Diya” (Blood Money) Until now, politically unstable Chad
has only sent films by Mahamat-Saleh Haroun. But who knows? They were the
“country of honor” at the FESPACO Film Festival this year and had two new local features
screened, including “Diya, le prix du sang”, which was in the Main Competition
and won Best Actor. It’s an intriguing film about a happy couple whose life is
thrown into turmoil when the husband kills a 9-year old boy in a car accident,
leading to a demand of 5 million francs in “blood money” compensation. I hope
we see Chad back!
CONGO-KINSHASA- “Tree of Authenticity” Congo-Kinshasa
hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 1997…a longer absence than any other
country other than Kuwait (1978). Environmental documentary “Tree of Authenticity”
premiered at Rotterdam 2025 where it won a Special Jury Prize. But this film
about the Belgian-Congolese colonial legacy is unlikely to be in the race.
COTE D’IVOIRE- “Sika Okle” Côte d'Ivoire sent two films
by Philippe Lacôte in 2015 and 2020. His latest film is in English so if
the Ivoirians return, I predict it will be “Sika Okle”, about a group of friends
trying to obtain a set of cursed treasures from their home village to sell to a
European collector. They also have documentary "Far From Anger".
EGYPT- “Seeking Haven for Mr. Rambo” Egypt has a good selection of
possibilities this year, including several from major festivals. It’s certainly
their best lineup in several years. I see the four frontrunners as: “Seeking
Haven for Mr. Rambo” (Venice), “Six Days”, “Spring Came Laughing” (Cairo, Main
Competition), and “Who’d Believe It?” (Cairo, Out of Competition). “Mr. Rambo”,
about a man trying to save the life of his dog after a neighbor maliciously reports it to the authorities, premiered at a major festival, got a confirmed
domestic release in January 2025 and quite simply has the best reviews of any of the
Egyptian contenders….so that’s my prediction. “Spring Came Laughing”, four
unconnected stories about Egyptian women, was the only Egyptian film in
competition at this year’s Cairo Film Festival so I predict it will be runner-up. But Egypt has gone with more commercial
picks the past two years (though that’s partly because they’ve mostly been
absent from festivals) so romantic comedy-drama “Who’d Believe It?” or “Six
Days”, a commercial release about two starcrossed lovers who have a second
chance at love, could easily be selected instead. Dark horses: “Aisha Can’t Fly Away”
(Cannes UCR) and “Perfumed Mint” (Venice/Toronto).
ETHIOPIA- “Tizita” Ethiopia submitted four films
between 2010-2019 but haven’t sent a film in six years. If they return this year, I
expect it will be “Tizita”, a romance-thriller soap opera about a male and
female soldier who fall in love but find themselves separated by wartime.
GHANA- “Last Stop” Ghana sent a film to the Oscars just once in 2019. That’s six years ago so I think they’d need to renew the
credentials of their committee (they can only be absent five years
before AMPAS kicks them out). The director of their 2019 submission (“Azali”)
has a new film this year called “Last Stop”. It’s an action-thriller that, based on the trailer, appears to be roughly 50% in English and 50% in an African language (Akan?). Most of Ghana’s films made for the
international/pan-African market are made in English so they can be exported....which is why they have few quality options.
IRAN- “The Old Bachelor” Iran is one of the hardest countries to
predict. In the past ten years, they’ve picked seven “local” productions from their
national Fajr Film Festival and five from major international festivals (Cannes
and Venice). Two of their films were at both Fajr and Venice. Iran is rather
cruel to many of its leading directors. Jafar Panahi, who won the Palme d’Or at
Cannes, produces his films in secret. Mohammad Rasoulof fled the country after
being sentenced to eight years in prison and a flogging for making the
anti-regime “Seed of the Sacred Fig”. And Ali Asgari- who was selected this
year for Venice for a dark comedy about Iranian film censorship – is subject to
a travel ban and had his belongings confiscated for showing a film in Cannes in
2023 without permission. But unlike countries like China and (formerly) Russia,
the Iranian Academy does almost always send a very good film to the competition.
The underrated “World War III” deserved to be nominated for an Oscar…and “Finding
Farideh”, “Sun Children” and “A Hero” were wonderful films. This year, U.S.-Iran
tensions have been worse than usual. It’s possible Iran may boycott…but in Iran’s
defense, they’ve only boycotted once since 1997 (they didn’t like a YouTube
video). I think they’ll submit and it will be a very good film. So what will it
be? I’m predicting “The Old Bachelor”, a family thriller co-starring Leila
Khatami (the wife in “A Separation” as a woman in a love triangle with an
domineering old man, and her long-bullied adult son. It didn’t play in Fajr or
a major festival so it would be an unusual choice…but I’ve heard it is the
buzziest Iranian film in year and the director hasn’t had problems with the authorities
like his chief rival, Saeed Roustaei, who had “Woman and Child” at Cannes. Roustaei
seems to have been forgiven (he was convicted of a crime for submitting an
uncensored version of “Leila’s Children” to Cannes) but I don’t think they’ll
reward him with a trip to Hollywood. In 3rd place: “Whisper My Name”
(aka “Call Me Ziba”), which won Best Iranian Film at Fajr 2025. Less likely:
documentary “Cutting Through Rocks” (Sundance), family dramas “Raha” and “Summer
Time”.
IRAQ- “The President’s Cake” Iraqi films rarely win major
awards but this year “The President’s Cake” won the Camera d’Or (equivalent to
Best First Feature) and an Audience Award at Cannes 2025. Set during Saddam Hussein’s
rule, it’s a drama about a 9-year girl assigned to bake Saddam Hussein a
birthday cake. If it can meet the screening requirements, it’s obviously in. If
not, Arabic-language “Songs of Adam” (Red Sea), set in the 1940s, or Kurdish-language
“The Scenarist" (Duhok)” could benefit.
ISRAEL- “Yes” (Ken) In July, Israel announced that 22 feature films would be considered for the 2025 Ophir Awards and, as usual, the winner of Best Picture will automatically be sent to the
Oscars. This is less than previous years (2024: 30; 2023: 28). I studied the 22 contenders and felt fairly confident that the five Ophir nominees for Best Picture would be (1)- “Dead Language”
(Tribeca), which was made by a pair of Oscar Short Film nominees, (2)- “Life
Without Credit”, (3)- “Mariana’s Room” (Rotterdam), a French co-production co-starring Melanie Thierry, (4)- “Oxygen”, and (5)- “Yes” (Cannes Director’s Fortnight), with "Yes" winning the Ophir. In the end, I got three out of five correct - "Dead Language", "Oxygen" and "Yes'" made the cut, while two brand-new films- "Nandauri" and "The Sea" got the last two slots. I'm still surprised about "Life Without Credit"....it managed three nominations.
So, which of these five films will represent Israel? I think four of them have a very strong shot (sorry, "Nandauri"). “Yes” has gotten great reviews for its dark look at Israeli nationalism and politics in the wake of the horrific October 7 terrorist attacks. The membership of the Israeli Academy often likes to be a little bit controversial, and director Nadav Lapid is an acclaimed director who has never been selected for the Oscars before…. so I’m feeling confident that “Yes” is probably the one. But I've also been told that "Yes" is simply too controversial and will not have any chance of getting a majority of votes despite the leftist slant of many voters. The upcoming “Oxygen”, starring Dana Ivgy as the terrified mother of a soldier who wants to go fight in Lebanon, could split the "anti-war" vote. (Ivgy is also the star of “Life Without Credit” and the likely Best Actress winner for one of those two films, to add to the three she already has). "The Sea", an Arabic-language drama about a Palestinian boy trying to illegally cross checkpoints, was the surprise leader at the Ophirs with 13 nominations and the Ophirs have selected Arabic-language films before. Most people are telling me the favorite is "Dead Language", co-starring Danish actor Ulrich Thomsen and Israeli actress Sarah Adler, due in part to its Oscar connection...A short film with the same stars and story was nominated for the Oscar for Best Short Film in 2014. That's all very true but I'm predicting a surprise controversial victory for festival darling "Yes" since I've heard it described as "Fellini-esque" (and what's more Oscary than that?!) ....The Israeli Academy enjoys pissing off Netanyahu.
JORDAN- “The Strangers’ Case” Jordan has submitted very
good films for the Oscars five years in a row – but the Kingdom withdrew two of them
due to pressure, first from idiots on social media (“Amira”) and then last year from the Government
of Azerbaijan (“My Sweet Land”). That’s a shame because the Jordanian Film Commission should feel free
to send whatever they want. This year, they have very little to choose from. The
multinational “The Strangers Case” (co-starring Omar Sy) has good reviews and
was funded mostly by Jordan…but it has an American writer-director and
international crew. I’m not sure what AMPAS would do with it. “Tell Them About
Us” has played at a lot of documentary festivals internationally and is about a
group of (non-Jordanian) teenaged migrant girls in Germany…but it does have a
Jordanian director. In the past, Jordan has somehow been allowed to send films
by filmmakers from neighboring countries….so they could also try to send “All That’s
Left of You (made by a Palestinian-American) or “Yunan” (made by a Syrian exile
based in Europe).
KENYA- “Makosa ni Yangu” Under the old rules of this category, Kenya’s
unassuming and virtually unknown “Nawi” could have made the shortlist last year. It was
reportedly very well-received but wasn’t seen by enough Oscars voters to
advance to the second round. I think the new rules which privilege the films that voters "choose" to watch is very unfair. Anyway, I’m honestly not sure what Kenya will choose this year. Kenya’s Kalasha Film Awards were postponed indefinitely
so there are no local precursors. For now, I’ll pencil in ”Makosa ni Yangu“.
Kenya likes moral dramas and this is a new women’s empowerment tale. The
trailer is roughly 50-50 English vice Swahili….so it may not end up being eligible. In
that case, maybe they’ll choose rom-com “Sayari” that recently screened in
competition at the Zanzibar International Film Festival and which is definitely
mostly in Swahili. How to Build a Library”, by the directors of the 2020 Kenyan
submission “The Letter” premiered to good reviews at Sundance but appears to be
mostly in English.
KUWAIT- “Suhaila Bint Duaim” Kuwait last entered the
International Oscar race before I was born….way back in 1978. If they somehow
returned this year, it would probably be for “Suhaila Bint Duaim” a
horror-mystery revolving around a series of murders.
LEBANON- “Disorder” Lebanon sends some of the most
interesting films year after year but they don’t have too much to choose from this year.
Most of their contenders have foreign directors (“Green Line”, “Portrait of a
Certain Orient”) or are documentaries...and the Lebanese Academy hasn't traditionally considered either. I think they’ll either choose “Dead Dog” (Rotterdam), about
an estranged married couple, or “Disorder”, a Lebanese “Wild Tales” featuring
four darkly comic stories about the difficulty of living in Lebanon. “Disorder”
has better reviews so that’s my prediction. Dark horse: there's also "A Sad and Beautiful World", an epic love story starring Mounia Akl that spans 30 years of Lebanese history. It's set to premiere in Venice but I expect it will be eligible next year.
LESOTHO- “Ancestral Visions of the Future” The tiny
Kingdom of Lesotho sent “This is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection”, a drama by Lemohang
Jeremiah Mosese, in 2020 and it was quite well-received (I didn't like it). Mosese
premiered his latest film – dream-like, abstract documentary “Ancestral Visions
of the Future”- at a Berlinale sidebar in 2025. The trailer has no dialogue but websites are saying it's in English. Anyway, it's their only option to return.
MADAGASCAR- “Disko Afrika: A Malagasy Story” The
gorgeous island of Madagascar (I visited in 2006) applied to form an Oscar
selection committee for the first time this year. There’s little doubt that they did this specifically so that they could send rural drama “Disco Afrika”, which played in the 14+ section of
Berlinale 2024. It’s a slice-of-life drama about a young miner facing economic
problems and corruption in his community. Reviews have been quite good and it
will represent the country well.
MALAWI- “Welcome to Maula Prison” Malawi sent films
to the Oscars twice in 2018 and 2021. They appear to have at least two films
eligible- “Welcome to Maula Prison”, a prison drama-cum-thriller, and “True or
False”, a melodrama set around the music industry. Based on the trailers,
“Maula Prison” has a lot less English,
so that’s my prediction.
MAURITANIA- Nothing Mauritania sent the beautiful
Abderrahmane Sissako film “Timbuktu” in 2014. It was long expected that
Mauritania wouldn’t return until he released his next film- “Black Tea”….but that
film came out last year and was not sent to Hollywood. Reviews were
generally poor. I don’t expect Mauritania has anything eligible this year.
MOROCCO- “Calle Malaga” Morocco has had a fairly
quiet film year so far. They have a few options from the Marrakech International Film
Festival, although Moroccan films didn’t win any awards there. The two main
candidates so far are “Across the Sea” (Cannes Critics Week 2024) and “Nocturnal
Sonata”, with “Que d’amour” a dark horse. However, Maryam Touzani's latest film- "Calle Malaga" has just been selected for Venice and Toronto....and Morocco usually picks an unreleased film (every year since 2020!) and somehow qualifies. "Calle Malaga" also stars Spanish superstar Carmen Maura, now 80, as an elderly woman trying to stay in her beloved Moroccan home after her daughter sells it against her will. Films by husband-and-wife Nabil Ayouch & Maryam Touzani have been picked a shocking five of the past eight years...."Malaga" will probably make it six out of nine. If "Malaga" doesn't get a qualifying release, I’m predicting
“Nocturnal Sonata”, about a man who falls in love with an engaged woman who he
saves from suicide. I think most people are predicting “Across the Sea”, a queer-minded film about a
Moroccan party girl who lives in France. “Since I Was Born” rounds out their Top Five options.
MOZAMBIQUE- “The Anchorage of Time” Mozambique sent a
film just once in 2017. They’ve had some decent options since then but haven’t
sent any more films and I think their committee has expired. They definitely should try
and send “Anchorage of Time”, a murder mystery based on a local novel set at a
former slave fort in Mozambique.
NAMIBIA- “For Fuck’s Sake, Marelize!” Namibia sent a
film to the Oscars just once in 2023, when they sent the bizarre Lynchian “Under the Hanging Tree”
that I really liked…but could never explain why. I don’t think they’ll send a film this year but “For Fuck’s Sake, Marelize!”, a new Afrikaans-language comedy-drama about a White Namibian family dealing with a cancer scare. It will premiere in Namibian and South African cinemas the last week of August.
NIGER- Nothing Niger sent a film once in 2018 but I
don’t see any prospects for this year.
NIGERIA- “The Legend of the Vagabond Queen of Lagos” “The
Legend of the Vagabond Queen of Lagos” premiered at the 2024 Toronto Film Festival
and it got very strong reviews for its tale of corruption and revenge in a poor
Lagos slum. The cinematography was particularly praised, and the film is mostly in Pidgin English and Yoruba so it meets the language requirements. Thriller “Freedom Way”
also premiered at Toronto 2024 and has been called a Nigerian “Crash”. Unlike
“Vagabond Queen” it has already gotten a confirmed release in Nigeria but I suspect it may have too much English to qualify (language is often a problem for Nigerian films at the Oscars). These two festival films are the
favorites but last year they chose a local big-budget film. Their options this
year include “Makemation”, which has marketed itself as the first Nigerian
film to use AI and which features all three of Nigeria’s main languages...as
well as “Out of Breath” (in Ibo) and a trio of costume dramas in Yoruba (“Labake Olododo”, “Ewo” and “Asiri Ade”). Of these five, I give "Asiri Ade" the edge.
PALESTINE- “Palestine 36” Palestine made
it to the shortlist last year for “From Ground Zero”, a really impressive
omnibus of short films made in Gaza under unbelievably difficult conditions. They
also won Best Documentary Feature for “No Other Land”, a co-production with
Israel, whose co-directors Yuval Ibraham (Israeli) and Basel Adra (Palestinian) made the best speeches of the whole night. (Adra was later detained by security forces). So Palestinian cinema is alive and well. It’s always
difficult to tell what is eligible but I see no less than six strong possibilities- (1)- "All
That’s Left of You" (Sundance), a drama starring Saleh and Mohammad Bakri
exploring Palestinian history from the point of view of a Palestinian mother, (2)- “Once Upon a Time
in Gaza” (Cannes UCR), a genre-bending revenge movie set in Gaza and directed
by the Nasser Brothers who repped Palestine for “Gaza Mon Amour” in 2020, (3)- "Palestine 36" (Venice), a historical drama set in 1936 Mandatory Palestine starring Hiam Abass and co-starring Jeremy Irons, (4)- “Passing
Dreams” (Cairo), a gentle drama about a boy and a carrier pigeon, directed by
respected elder director Rashid Masharawi who has never officially represented
Palestine but who organized and produced last year’s shortlisted “From Ground
Zero", (5)- “To A Land Unknown” (Cannes, Director’s Fortnight), a
multi-national production about a Palestinian refugee living illegally in
Greece and (6)- "With Hasan in Gaza" (Locarno), a documentary about the 2001 siege of Gaza. This is tough. There will be gratitude to Masharawi for last year but voters
will like “Once Upon A Time” and "With Hasan in Gaza" because it keeps atrocities in Gaza in the spotlight….But “To A
Land Unknown” and “All That’s Left” have the best reviews and "Palestine 36" is a big-budget new film premiering at the right time and directed by Annemarie Jacir who has represented Palestine three times. I predict “Palestine 36”, with "All That's Left" and Masharawi's "Passing Dreams" the
runner-ups. But any of these six could easily be picked.
RWANDA- "Minimals in a Titanic World" Rwanda announced that they planned to send a film to the Oscars for the first time. Since they had a film at Berlinale Forum earlier this year, it's almost certain that's what they plan to send. "Titanic" is a mostly plotless film about a group of friends in the Rwandan capital, including a woman who has just been released from prison.
SAUDI ARABIA- “Unidentified” Saudi Arabia sent films to the Oscars every year from
2019-2023 but skipped last year despite a number of good eligible films.
The Saudi Film Commission announced they had regularized the process this year and launched an official open call for submissions for the first time. With three frontrunners already released following premieres at the country's Red Sea International Film Festival- "Hobal", "My Driver & I" and "Saify" - and two hotly anticipated films by previously submitted female directors premiering at Venice ("Hijra') and Toronto ("Unidentified"), Saudi Arabia has a super competitive race. A lot will depend on which films get released in cinemas ("Hobal" and "Saify" already have) and which filmmakers submit themselves for consideration. Since Sony Pictures Classics picked up "Unidentified", a thriller by Haifaa al-Mansour who first got Saudi Arabia into the Oscar race when cinemas were still banned, I'm pretty sure that will be the one. Toronto will be its world premiere, so if it can't get into cinemas by September 30, Saudi Arabia will probably choose “Hobal”, a drama about a family dominated by a strict religious grandfather in a small
desert community in the more conservative 1990s. Director Abdulaziz Alshlahei was
picked a few years ago for “Tambour of Retribution”. In third place: Venice premiere "Hijra", about a grandmother on a pilgrimage to Mecca who goes in search of her missing granddaughter. Dark horses: “Saify”, a dark satire about a man selling illegal
religious sermons and “My Driver & I”, a sort of “Driving Miss Daisy”…but with a
rich young woman unable to drive legally and a Sudanese migrant trying to send
money home to his family.
SENEGAL- “Demba” “Demba” premiered at Berlinale 2024
and premiered in Senegal in December 2024. It’s about a retired civil servant
dealing with grief and depression in a country that doesn’t recognize these as serious illnesses. This looks much better than “Dahomey”, the most overrated film of
2024. "Demba" seems like the obvious option.
SOMALIA- “Mother Mother” Somalia formed an Oscar committee
in 2021 that was composed mostly of Somalian filmmakers living abroad and submitted the delightful “The Gravedigger’s Wife”. Surprisingly, Somalia actually has two very interesting options this year if they form a committee again. “The Village Next to
Paradise”, a slice-of-life drama about a Somali family living in a desert
village, played at Cannes Un Certain Regard last year and got released in a number of Western European countries beginning in November 2024. But director Mo Harawe
is based in Austria and “Village” won Best Picture at the Austrian Film
Awards…so I think they will try to represent Austria which has an established
film selection committee. That opens the door to “Mother Mother” (Toronto)
about tensions between a Somali family of camel herders, and a visiting
Somali-American man. The cinematographer is Oscar-nominated Cesar Charlone
(“City of God”)…this film has gravitas. I hope they'll come back
SOUTH AFRICA- “The Heart is a Muscle” Multi-lingual
South Africa (11 official languages!) produces the majority of its movies in English- especially
bigger-budget ones - and a lot of South African fare is now made exclusively for cable
and streaming services, which means they aren't eligible. I see three festival options for their 2025 Oscar
submission- “Carissa” (Venice 2024), “God’s Work” (Durban), and “The Heart is a
Muscle” (Berlin). “Carissa” is a
coming-of-age drama about a young woman growing up in a traditional rural
community threatened by the construction of a luxury development. “The Heart is
a Muscle” is about a man whose violent past is accidentally revealed when his
son disappears. Both of these films are about South Africa’s Coloured
community, and played at major festivals where they got good (but not excellent)
reviews. “God’s Work” is an urban drama of the sort that South Africa used to
send every year in the 2010s, and it’s premiering this month at the Durban
International Film Festival. “Carissa” and "Muscle" appear to have September 2025 release dates... and that matters in South
Africa where local films have a hard time getting into cinemas. I’m not sure
which one is the frontrunner but I’m predicting the Berlinale drama “The Heart
is a Muscle”. Dark horse: “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” has a South
African-American director and is about neighboring Zimbabwe…but reviews are the
best of the four and it’s played under the South African banner at a number of
global festivals.
SUDAN- “Khartoum” I thought Sudan deserved to win the
Oscar in 2024 for the moving “Goodbye Julia"....but it didn’t even
get shortlisted because Oscar voters are lazy. Sudan is at war right now but they
do have a new documentary this year about five individuals trying to live their lives amidst the current civil war. It’s played at Berlin and Sundance and should be picked to represent
Sudan.
SYRIA- “Salma” Syria overthrew dictator Bashar
al-Assad in December 2024, ending years of civil war. When Afghanistan and Iraq
overthrew their dictatorships, we saw a cinematic renaissance as a result of the end
of decades of state censorship. Variety published an interesting article on the hopes and
fears of Syrian filmmakers, who are now dispersed all over the world. https://variety.com/2024/film/global/syria-filmmakers-bashar-assad-regime-1236244346/
. In 2017, a Syrian Oscar selection committee linked to the opposition submitted a
documentary. If they return this year, it will almost certainly be “Salma” a dramatic
feature about a woman who seeks political office after being unable to obtain a
death certificate for her late husband due to Kafkaesque bureaucracy. It competed in Cairo 2024….but its prospects may
depend on the political slant of the film. There’s also documentary “My Memory
is Full of Ghosts”, about the effects of civil war on the city of Homs.
TANZANIA- “My Son” In 2022, Tanzania made a big deal when they
returned to the Oscars after a 20-year absence...but they haven’t sent anything the
past two years. They do have a local film industry and they host one of
sub-Saharan Africa’s most important film festivals each summer in Zanzibar.
This year’s two main contenders would be a pair of crime dramas: “My Son”, which will premiere in the Main
Competition at Zanzibar and which I think is about a mother searching for her
kidnapped son (maybe?); and “Bahati ya Mtende”, about a poor village man who
finds a cache of (possibly stolen?) diamonds. The festival play should give “My
Son” the advantage.
TUNISIA- “Red Path” Tunisia has had an amazing film year
with no less than eight festival contenders. Tunisian films at festivals can
often take a year or more to be released in cinemas but I can confirm that four
of these have gotten a domestic release within the eligibility period- “Agora”
(Locarno), “Aicha” (Venice Horizons), “Red Path” (Locarno) and “Who Do I Belong
To?” (Berlin). These last two both deal with the effects of jihadist violence
on Tunisian youth and society, and they are frontrunners for Tunisia. “Red
Path” focuses on a village boy who is forced by jihadists to go on a rather
terrible mission. “Who Do I Belong To?”, directed by Short Film Oscar nominee Meryam
Joobeur, had quite a bit of buzz last year after its Berlin premiere but that
buzz is mostly gone. It’s about a mother dealing with the return of her
jihadist son to her small community….This is a topic that Tunisia has
selected for the Oscars before. But out of nowhere, Oscar nominee Kaouther Ben Hania's new film announced that it would premiere in the Main Competition at Venice this month - "The Voice of Hind Rajab" is a timely look at the killing of a 5-year old Palestinian girl, her family and medical paramedics by Israeli forces in January 2024. It's unclear if it will premiere in Tunisia before or after September 30th, but the Tunisian Academy will have a hard decision.
“Red Path” seems to have slightly better reviews than "Belong"....but "Hind Rajab" will certainly be picked if it's released. No question. “Agora” and “Aicha”, both thrillers by young local directors that
critics say are a bit “difficult” have an outside chance. I expect "Hind Rajab" (Venice), “Promised Sky” (Cannes) and “Where the Wind
Comes From” (Sundance) will probably be eligible next year….R
** TURKEY- “One of Those Days When Hemme Dies” (OFFICIAL) Turkey
somehow picked their movie in July, months before the Oscar deadline, and I didn't have a chance to make a prediction. This is ridiculously early.....What happens if a new Turkish masterpiece premieres in September? Anyway, Turkey picked Venice 2024
drama “One of Those Days When Hemme Dies”, a tight 83-minute drama about a
laborer planning his boss’ murder. Turkey tends to pick overlong 3-hour melodramas
so this will be the first year in a long time that I'm excited to see the Turkish submission.
UGANDA- “Kimote” Uganda sent a film to the Oscars once and they have announced the formation of a committee this year. The big winner of the Ugandan Film
Awards this year was “Nkinzi”, which won most major awards including Best
Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay. Oddly enough, “Nkinzi” beat “Kimote”
for Best Picture, but “Kimote” beat “Nkinzi” for Best Film in an African
Language. So, if Uganda returns to the competition, it will probably be one of
these two. “Kimote”, which promotes Ugandan cultural craft traditions, looks like a
better candidate than “Nkinzi”, a thriller about a young runaway girl living on the
streets.
YEMEN- “The First Lecture” UK-Yemeni Sara Ishaq got
an Oscar nomination for her documentary short “Karama Has No Walls”. She just
wrapped production on her fiction feature debut - “The Station” - about the
absurdities of living in Yemen during the civil war. It sounds very promising
and will likely be Yemen’s fourth-ever Oscar submission next year. Yemen
probably won’t enter this year but the mid-length (55 minute) film I predicted
last year actually got a local release in Yemen this year according to IMDB…. “The First
Lecture” is about a young man whose sister suffers from cancer.
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