And finally, here are the countries of Western Europe. These countries dominate this category. In the past four years, they got seven (2022), eight (2023, 2024) or nine (2021) of the 15 spots on the shortlist, and three (2021, 2022, 2024) or four (2023) of the five nominations. Of the 17 "established" countries in Western Europe, 12 managed to get shortlisted at least twice in the past four years including relatively tiny Iceland and Ireland. Only three- Greece, Netherlands and Portugal - have failed to advance in the past ten years. Denmark has been on the list five years in a row.
Does Western Europe make the best films? No, not usually. But they do have lobbying power and connections that most films from developing countries don't have, and they (mostly) have a good understanding of the films that AMPAS will like, and don't submit....well...."Laapataa Ladies".
Last year, I saw all 18 submissions (except the one from Spain) and they really did send the best films .....I loved "Touch", "Kneecap" and "Memory Lane" and was sorry to see them fail to be nominated (two were shortlisted). The worst film -as usual- was the messy travelogue from Portugal.
Here are my predictions for Western Europe, where we could theoretically see a Faroe Islands debut.
AUSTRIA- “The Village Next to Paradise” UPDATE: Austria selected "Peacock"....but I wrote this before they decided......So, let’s look at
this mathematically. Nine of the past ten Austrian submissions premiered at
Class-A festivals (three in Cannes, three in Venice, two in Berlin and one at
Locarno). And six of the past ten winners of Best Picture at the Austrian Film
Awards went to the Oscars. So, the frontrunner is clearly Somali-language
family drama “The Village Next to Paradise” which competed at Cannes Un Certain
Regard in 2024 and won Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards in 2025. Austria usually has no hang-ups about a “foreign film” representing them at the Oscars
so I think this is the one. But I count six other Austrian majority films that
premiered at major festivals this year (“How to Be Normal and the Oddness of
the Other World”, “Moon”, “Mother’s Baby”, “Peacock”, “White Snail” and “The
Witness”). Of these, feminist Persian thriller “The Witness” (co-written by
Jafar Panahi) is the most likely challenger to "The Village"….though comedy “Peacock” is the most
likely option actually made in Austria. Austria likes horror but “Mother’s
Baby” (starring Claes Bang) is set to premiere in October and “White Snail” has
no release date. For me, it really looks like "Village” will get this. 
BELGIUM- “Young Mother’s Home” (Jeunes mères) Belgium is reportedly
trying a new format this year. The Flemish (Dutch-speaking) and Walloon
(French-speaking) film bodies will each choose two films made by their filmmakers (which doesn’t necessarily mean they are in that language…In 2019, they picked
a Spanish-language film from the “French side”) and then a joint selection committee
will choose from among those four finalists. The Belgian Academy loves Cannes.
They’ve picked Cannes premieres seven of the past ten years and all three of
their recent shortlisted films (“Brand New Testament”, “Playground” and
“Close”) were Cannes premieres. The Brothers Dardenne have been picked four
times – more than any other Belgian directors – and after winning Best
Screenplay and the Ecumenical Jury Prize at Cannes 2025 for “Young Mothers’s
Home”, this year will probably make it five. I hated “Le fils” and “L’enfant” but
I absolutely loved “Deux jours, une nuit”….So I’m on the fence about this French-language
drama about a home for unwed teenaged mothers. From the Flemish side, the main
contender is critically acclaimed LGBT coming-of-age drama “Young Hearts” (Berlinale
2024) which could challenge the Dardennes who’ve had so many chances in this
category (in addition to the three they directed, at least four films they co-produced have been submitted) with zero success. “Young
Hearts” is very good and already has an Amazon deal. There’s a lot of competition for that
second “French” spot on the Belgian shortlist. It could easily be any one of
three other Cannes debuts: “Wild Foxes” (Director’s Fortnight), a teen boxing
drama, “Adam’s Sake” (Critics Week), about a mother trying to keep custody of
her child (director Laura Wandel got a surprise shortlist spot for
“Playground”) and “Kika” (Critics Week), a quirky dramedy about a pregnant
woman dealing with the death of her life partner. I think “Adam’s Sake” will get
it, though I’m hoping for “Kika”. As for the second Flemish spot? They don’t have much so I’ll predict the
upcoming lesbian drama “Julian”, set to debut in Toronto.
CYPRUS- “Smaragda – I Got Thick Skin and I Can’t Jump” Cyprus
is the only EU country that has never entered the Oscars and every year I expect we'll see them debut. Apparently, it has been discussed with the Ministry of Culture but the Ministry has never formed a committee. This year, Cyprus premiered a
quirky Greek-language comedy-drama about an aging Cypriot woman seeking meaning in
the second half of her life. Submitting "Smaragda" to the Oscars would be a great way to get Cypriot cinema seen on the larger world stage.
DENMARK- “The Last Viking” Since 2010, Denmark (pop:
6 million) has made the Oscar shortlist 12 out of 15 times….more than any other country, including much
larger competitors like Germany (10), France (7), Poland (5), Italy and Spain (4
each)….(and a 13th film, “Queen of Hearts”, probably came VERY close).
Denmark not only makes great films; they also understand Oscar voters and they
want to be nominated each and every year. This year, Denmark has had a
weak year by their high standards (though still better than most countries).
Each year, they announce a three-film shortlist and this year I predicted that would be drama "Home Sweet Home" (Berlin Panorama), comedy "The Last Viking" (Toronto), and thriller "Second Victims", with LGBT drama "Sauna" (Sundance) as my alternate. Last year, in the
hunt for that Oscar, they gave a qualifying release to “The Girl with the
Needle” to make sure they made the Final Five…and they did (they didn’t deserve
it, but they did). So, I correctly predicted they would do a qualifying release for Mads
Mikkelsen’s new comedy-drama “The Last Viking” (apparently in Finland! which under the new rules is fine....) , which is clearly trying to channel the energy of
“Another Round". "Last Viking" did make the Danish shortlist announced on August 21 but I got the other two wrong. Instead Denmark selected Russian-language documentary "Mr. Nobody Against Putin", which was filmed in secret over the course of two years, and "Beginnings" (Berlin), a drama about divorce starring Trine Dyrholm. "Beginnings" also got a qualifying release (this time in Spain)....and those make things so much more difficult to predict. I think it was probably including to have a female director on the shortlist. While "Putin" has some pretty great reviews, "The Last Viking" is the clear favorite and with “Home Sweet Home” already out of the running, "Viking" is my prediction. Director Anders
Thomas Jensen already has three Oscar nominations (including one win) in the
Short Film Oscar category and he also wrote the Oscar-winning “In a Better
World”. The film is about a bank robber released from prison and his mentally ill brother (Mikkelsen) desperately
searching for a hidden stash of money.
FAROE ISLANDS- "The Last Paradise on Earth" Before someone tells me that the "Faroe Islands" isn't a country, please note that it has the same political status as Greenland which was recognized by AMPAS in 2010, and it has its own language, flag, sports teams and money. The islands have also started making TV shows ("Trom" was exported overseas) and films. However, it's true that the Faroese are often required to represent Denmark. Faroese athletes compete for Denmark in the Olympics and most World Championships (they won a bronze medal for Denmark in the Swimming World Championships), Denmark has sent Faroese singers to represent Denmark at Eurovision two of the past three years (!), and Denmark sent a movie about the Faroe Islands to the Oscars in 1997. But this year, the Nordic Council Film Prize allowed the Faroe Islands to compete as an independent country with the film "The Last Paradise on Earth" and I suspect they may use this to try and get themselves into the Oscars. The Nordic Council Film Prize was traditionally open to the five independent Nordic nations (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) but opened up to Greenland in 2023 and the Faroe Islands in 2025. "The Last Paradise on Earth" won't win an Oscar but it would be an excellent debut submission from the wind-swept islands with someone of the most beautiful landscapes on Earth. It's about young people on the islands facing the age-old question of whether to stay at home in a small town or seek out new opportunities in a globalized world.
FINLAND- “Never Alone” Klaus Härö has been picked to
represent Finland four times and is one of only three Finnish directors EVER to make
it to the Oscar shortlist. His new movie is a period drama about Finnish
Jews during the Holocaust which practically screams "OSCAR". So that seems likely to be their submission in a
relatively weak year. I’d much prefer they send “100 Liters of Gold” (Tallinn Black
Nights), a very well-reviewed local comedy about two middle-aged sisters in the
countryside trying to save a rural wedding with the world's worst hangovers….but it
won’t be able to beat Härö. Millennial dramedy “Apple Thieves”, rural island
melodrama “Orenda” (by a twice-selected director) and edgy comedy-drama “A
Light That Never Goes Out” (Cannes ACID) round out the Top Five, but likely won’t come
into play.
FRANCE- "Souleymane's Story" (L'histoire de Souleymane) Poor France. Though they arguably have Europe's strongest cinema, they haven't won the Oscar since "Indochine" over thirty years ago. I think that's shocking...and France does too. Last year, they picked the Spanish-language "Emilia Perez" because they were sure it would be their chance to win. I actually liked the batshit crazy "Emilia Perez" more than "I'm Still Here"....but I thought "I'm Still Here" was a better film and it's the film I would have voted for. France is scheduled to announce its shortlist soon and I would say that the race for France is wide-open. I keep hearing people mention six films as possibilities - "Alpha", "Case 137", "It Was Just An Accident", "Nouvelle Vague", "A Private Life" and "The Stranger".
Let's start with the two highest-profile films- Jafar Panahi's Cannes Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" and Richard Linklater's "Nouvelle Vague" (Cannes & Netflix). First, there is a major question mark about whether the two Cannes films are eligible since their directors are not French and do not reside in France. "Nouvelle Vague", about the youth of avant-garde filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard, appears to absolutely be a majority French production. Contrary to what I've seen some people saying online, yes, films with U.S. directors may be eligible. For example, "How to Win At Checkers" was accepted to represent Thailand in 2015 even though it was directed by U.S. director Josh Kim. "It Was Just An Accident" is a wholly Iranian film...but the main production company, the producers, and some of the post-production crew are French. AMPAS often shows sympathy for films that could not be sent by their home country for political reasons. It's not REALLY eligible but I think they would allow it. I think AMPAS would accept both. Will France send them? No, I don't think so. "Emilia Perez" may have taken place in Mexico and been filmed in Spanish but Jacques Audiard is a beloved French director. Deniz Gamze Ergüven ("Mustang") was also raised in France. Even if "Nouvelle Vague" and "Accident" are eligible, I don't think France wants to end their 30-year Oscar drought with a film by a foreign filmmaker. The optics are bad.
What about the others? Julia DuCourneau's "Alpha" has poisonous reviews and DuCourneau didn't get an Oscar nomination for the buzzier "Titane".....I'm not sure how it's still in the conversation. And "Case 137", a thriller about police brutality, looks good but doesn't have the kind of reviews that will convince France it has a chance at an Oscar.
"A Private Life" (Vie Privée) stars Jodie Foster, Daniel Auteuil and Mathieu Amalric, and looks like "Anatomy of a Fall". It's about a psychiatrist who believes her former patient has been murdered. Reviews also don't look good enough for a win, but the starpower alone will certainly make this a strong possibility. Ditto Francois Ozon's "The Stranger", based on a classic French novel. Those who supported "Count of Monte Cristo" last year could fight for the idea of trying a French classic. Both of these would require qualifying releases...but France has done those before without an issue.
But I'm going out on a limb and predicting France sends "Souleymane's Story", a drama starring non-professional actors about 48 hours in the life of a Guinean asylum seeker in Paris. It premiered at Cannes 2024 (festival play...check)....has rapturous reviews (4.1 on Letterboxd vice 3.2 for "Private Life" and "Alpha", 3.5 for "Case 136", and 3.7 for "Nouvelle Vague) and has gotten a U.S. release. France almost always goes for a BIG film....but that hasn't worked. Maybe they should just go with a good one. I think it will be the surprise pick.
The French shortlist consists of between 3-5 films....if it's three, except "Vie Privee" and "The Stranger" to join "Souleymane". If it's four, then add "It Was Just An Accident", and if it's five, lesbian drama "La petite derniere" (The Little Sister). Alternates: "Case 137", "A Magnificent Life" and "Nouvelle Vague".
GERMANY- “The Tiger" UPDATE: Germany picked "Sound of Falling", so I got this one wrong. I wrote this prior to Germany's announcement. Each year German Films announces
a “shortlist” of finalists to represent Germany at the Oscars….but it isn’t a
list of films that Germany judged to be “the best of the year”. It’s actually a list of films
whose producers have submitted themselves for consideration. This year there
were only five films submitted…that’s the smallest number since Germany began
announcing its list in 2010. Last year there were 13 and the year before there
were 12. Four of the five deal with WWII (ugh…not again...). The finalists are (1)- “Amrum” (Cannes), a coming-of-age
drama directed by Fatih Akin and starring Diane Kruger, about a boy growing up
on a remote German island in the final days of WWII, (2)- “John Cranko”, a
biopic about a gay choreographer that competed at last year’s national Lola
Awards, but failed to get nominated in any of the Big Three categories, (3)-
“Riefenstahl” (Venice 2024), a documentary about the famous Nazi filmmaker,
(4)- “Sound of Falling” (Cannes), a time-jumping drama about several generations
of women living on the same remote farm and (5)- “Der Tiger”, an “anti-war” war
movie set in 1943 that has the backing of Amazon Prime and will available for streaming
after an Oscar qualifying run in Germany. Classy “Sound of Falling” is considered the
favorite….but the backing of Amazon and Germany’s recent win for “All Quiet on
the Western Front” makes me think that “Der Tiger” – made by a well-known
commercial director trying to make an artistic film for the first time- will be
picked instead. “Sound of Falling” will come a very, very, very close
second, with “Amrum” a distant third, “Riefenstahl” in fourth and “John
Cranko” way behind.
GREECE- “Arcadia” Greece had an internal controversy
last year when their Film Academy and their Ministry of Culture had a public spat over who gets to select the Greek submission. Officially, it’s the Ministry.....and when the Ministry
changed the members of its selection committee midway through the selection process all except one of the Greek contenders withdrew in protest . The
eventual Greek nominee, “Murderess”, was the film that was expected to be
picked all along but the Ministry made the process look corrupt….Hopefully Greece has gotten their act together but it’s
possible we could see another partial boycott. The favorite this year is “Arcadia”, a
surreal Lanthimos-esque mystery that AMPAS will probably hate. It won the three
top awards at the Greek Oscars after its Berlin premiere and won the FIPRESCI
Prize at Thessaloniki. So, apparently the Greeks really like it. The two other leading
contenders are box-office hit music biopic “Stelios” and adoption drama
“Kyuka”, about adopted twins who unexpectedly meet their birth mother while on a vacation. Greece sent the winner of the Hellenic Film Awards
to the Oscars 2021-2023 and the 2024 winner, “Animal” boycotted the process.
So, 2025 winner “Arcadia” is the favorite....but a big part of me thinks it could still go to “Stelios”
which just got a U.S. distribution deal.
GREENLAND- “Walls” Greenland (pop: 55,000) hasn’t
sent a film since 2012 but they started sending films for the Nordic Council Prize in 2023. With such a small population, it was likely difficult for them to meet the 7-day screening requirements until the rule change that they can qualify via screenings in another country (e.g. Denmark). If they return this year, it’s likely to be “Walls” (Akinni
Inuk), a documentary about a Greenlandic woman in prison, which is their candidate for the 2025 Nordic Council Prize. “The Incredible Snow
Woman” (Berlinale Panorama) was made in Greenland but it’s a wholly French
production with a French director and crew so it won’t be eligible.
ICELAND- “The Love That Remains” Iceland has an easy
decision this year as Hlynur Palmason’s “The Love That Remains” (Cannes) has
gotten great reviews. I don’t like Hlynur Palmason’s films but he made the
shortlist for “Godland” two years ago so obviously there are many who disagree. Tiny Iceland has made the
shortlist three of the past five years, one of the best records in the Nordics.....- Denmark managed all five, Iceland and Norway: 3,
Finland: 2, Sweden: 1 - and deserved to win last year for the wonderfully moving
“Touch”. “The Love That Remains” is about a year in the life of a family going through a separation. It
shouldn’t have any problem beating the other main contender, “Aftergames”.
IRELAND- “Blue Fiddle”. UPDATE: Ireland picked a documentary I'd never heard of - "Sanitorium" - which is in Ukrainian. It may be a very good film but it's a shame because this was probably the most prolific year for Irish-language cinema. This was written before Ireland's announcement. Ireland has sent seven Irish-language
films to the Oscars (out of 11 total), and two made the shortlist twice, including the Oscar-nominated “The Quiet Girl”. It used to be that Ireland would only make an
Irish-language feature every couple of years. That has completely changed and
there are half a dozen Irish-language features on the film festival circuit
this year, including two folk horror films (“Frewaka” and “The Ghost”), a village
murder mystery (“Bait”), an all-female heist thriller (“Aontas”), a family
drama (“Blue Fiddle”) plus wacky comedy “Froggie”. Congratulations to Irish
cinema! Of these, “Blue Fiddle”, an old-fashioned tearjerker about a young girl
who believes that she can cure her comatose father with her music,
seems most likely. After all, they got to the shortlist with the edgy, awesome
“Kneecap” but they got to the Oscars with the more sentimental “Quiet Girl”. I saw the creepy “Frewaka”,
about a caregiver living with an old woman in a haunted house, and it just got an Amazon/Shudder release. That helps get a film seen so that may be the
one. And “Aontas”, a heist thriller about three women robbers….but told
backwards.....premiered at the Galway Film Festival last month.
ITALY- "La grazia" ???? TBD I'm going to have wait on Italy until after Venice.....
LUXEMBOURG- “Breathing Underwater” (Hors d'haleine) Last year,
Luxembourg announced they didn’t have any eligible films. They’ll almost
certainly be back this year, probably with domestic violence drama “Breathing
Underwater”. The film, about a pregnant woman with a seemingly perfect life who
ends up in a shelter for battered women, looks like quite a good choice and is
largely in the country’s national language. German-language road movie
“Mariana’s Trench”, about an old man and a suicidal young hitchhiker and
Luxembourgish-language documentary “Terre Rouge” are also possible. Some people
think Luxembourg should try to send “It Was Just An Accident”, Jafar Panahi’s
Cannes Palme d’Or winning film that was co-produced by a Luxembourgian
production company….This worked for “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Tel Aviv on
Fire”…but I don’t think “It Was Just An Accident” has enough Luxembourg-based crew....just a couple of producers.
MALTA- “Ciao Ciao” Tiny Malta tries to send a film to
the Oscars any time they have something good to send. This year that will surely be
“Ciao Ciao”, about four friends who get together for a dinner reunion where
secrets are revealed and chaos ensues. Sounds like “Cuarencena” (the 2023
Dominican submission) and it’s one of the films on this page that I most want to find this year.
NETHERLANDS- “Our Girls” Last year, the Netherlands sent a
lovely, funny, heartbreaking film called "Memory Lane”. It deserved to make the
shortlist….but it had no buzz and probably wasn’t seen by any voters that were not
assigned to see it. Sad. From 1986-2003, the Netherlands was an Oscar
superpower…earning five nominations, including two wins. But they haven’t been
nominated since then. The Netherlands usually sends a late release and I’m
strangely confident they will send “Our Girls" which has been announced as
the opening film of the Netherlands Film Festival in September. Director Mike
van Diem won the Foreign Film Oscar for “Character” way, way back in 1998. In
the past 27 years, he’s made only two more movies…but this year he will premiere #3 - “Our Girls”, a baity drama about two families who are also best friends.
When their two daughters are in a terrible accident, doctors tell them that only one girl can be
saved. I was pretty sure this would be their submission even before I saw their eight-film shortlist, and that the runner-ups would be B+W comedy-drama "Three Days of Fish" (Karlovy Vary) and West Papua documentary "The Promise". "Fish" is on the shortlist..."Promise" isn't.
Here are the eight eligible films:
Top Tier: Our Girls (#1), Three Days of Fish (#2)
Second Tier: father-son drama Alpha (#3), documentary The Propagandist (#4)
Third Tier: youth tearjerker "Live for Me" (#6), Cannes murder mystery "Reedland" (#5)
Bottom Tier: action-comedy "Fabula" (#7), anti-capitalist documentary "The System" (#8)
NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” Norway has two of the
best-reviewed foreign films of the year and will have a very difficult decision
to make. “Dreams (Sex Love)” is the final (and reportedly best) in a
well-regarded trilogy about….well….dreams, sex and love, and it won the Golden
Bear at Berlin. “Sentimental Value”, starring Renate Reinsve and Stellan
Skarsgård, is a comedy-drama about family and art that won the Grand Prix (2nd
place) at Cannes. Both of these would be surefire Oscar nominees this year and Norway is surely cursing the “one-film-per-country” rule. I think it will be
“Sentimental Value” which seems to be more accessible and have slightly better
reviews, with a cast of recognizable international stars that Oscar voters
like, and a premise that seems to match previous Norwegian nominees like “Worst
Person in the World” (which has the same director and star). But its director Joachim Trier has been
picked twice in the past eight years while Dag Johan Haugerud has been shortlisted but never selected three times since 2012.
The egalitarian Norwegians may want to honor his work. I predicted both would make Norway's three-film shortlist.....and of course they did. But Norway had an amazing
film year and there was fierce competition for that third spot. I assumed that honor would go either to atmospheric fairy tale “The
Ugly Stepsister” (Sundance) which is already available in the U.S., or
“Loveable”, a drama about divorce that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024....or perhaps Oscar nominee Petter Naess ("Elling")'s new comedy “Ingen
Kommentar”. In the end, Norway chose political documentary "Facing War", which was a bit of an odd choice. But this is very clearly a battle between Cannes and Berlin.
PORTUGAL- “I Only Rest in the Storm” Dreaming of Lions Since 2019,
Portugal has announced a shortlist of four to six films before announcing their
Oscar candidate. This year, I predicted their shortlist would include "Banzo", "Dreaming of Lions" and "Hanami" (I got them right!) plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" and "The Seasons" (I got them wrong....but it looks like they will both be eligible next year), with "The Luminous Life" as my alternate. I expected "I Only Rest in the Storm" would be the Portuguese candidate.
Portugal replaced the two I got wrong with two dramas that weren't on my radar- "The Englishman's Papers" and "Sobrevivientes", whose director just passed away. The Portuguese shortlist is very heavily focused on Portugal's colonial legacy in Africa and three take place in former Portuguese colonies - "Banzo" in Sao Tome & Principe, "Englishman's Papers" in Angola, and "Hanami" in Cabo Verde (plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" took place in Guinea-Bissau).
For several years, Portugal has held the record for the most Oscar submissions without ever being shortlisted or nominated….and that probably won’t change this year. The Portuguese Academy usually likes their films darkly lit with dramatic voiceovers and without any sense of humor, and that doesn't play well with AMPAS. ("Alma Viva" was an exception.....charming!) But I would lovely to see them choose “Dreaming of Lions”, a dark comedy about euthanasia, not only because it has the best reviews but because it's a comedy. It's also the only one of the five films that actually takes place in Portugal. In the end, it's a tight race and I think any of these five could be selected except "Englishman's Papers".
Let's be optimistic. I'm predicting "Dreaming of Lions" (Tallinn Black Nights) because of its strong reviews, with dreamy Cabo Verdean coming-of-age drama "Hanami" (Locarno) in second place (it was also shortlisted by Switzerland), and "Banzo" (Karlovy Vary), set amidst an epidemic on a Portuguese colonial plantation, a very close third. "Sobrevivientes", a survival drama about race relations after a shipwreck, could get a sentimental vote to honor its late director.
SPAIN- “The Captive” (El cautivo) Spain has had a very good year
and it's going to be extremely competitive just to make Spain’s three-film shortlist. The
Spanish Academy – more than any of the other big countries – has a few
favorite directors. In the past ten years, three directors (Pedro
Almodovar, Carla Simon and the duo of Jon Garano & Jose Maria Goenaga) have
all been picked twice (so…six of out of ten )….and Almodovar &
Garano/Goenaga were also on the Spanish shortlist for other films during that 10-year time period. Two of the
other four (Fernando Leon de Aranoa & Juan Antonio Bayona) were picked by Spain in
the past.
This year, Simon (“Romeria”) and Garano/Goenaga (“Maspalomas”) are back in the race as is Oscar winner Alejandro Amenabar (“The Captive”). We also have the two most critically acclaimed Spanish films of the year from festivals – “Deaf” (Berlin) and “Sirat” (Cannes), plus one of last year’s two Best Picture winners at the Goya Awards (“Undercover”)….there was a tie. There has been an unofficial list floating around online of the 23 registered films and all except "Undercover" are on it. Spain has plenty of other films, but these appear to be the five frontrunners. From this unofficial list, terrorism drama "She Walks in Darkness" and bullfighting docudrama "Afternoons of Solitude" could sneak onto the list.
So, who will it be? Carla Simon & Garano/Goenaga both failed to get Spain to the shortlist all four times (the other previously submitted directors all at least got to the shortlist). I hate Carla Simon’s films so this is not surprising...and although the LGBT dramedy "Maspalomas" looks fantastic, it has less buzz than all the others. So, I predict the shortlist will be Amenabar’s period costume drama “The Captive”, and the two festival favorites “Deaf” (Sorda) and “Sirat”. “The Captive” a 16th century prison thriller, will premiere at San Sebastian and is only Amenabar’s second Spanish-language film in 20 years, since his Oscar win for “The Sea Inside”. (The other, “While At War”, was shortlisted by Spain but rightfully lost to Almodovar’s “Pain & Glory”). The uplifiting “Deaf”, about a deaf mother with a newborn, has beautiful reviews. “Sirat” won 3rd place (Jury Prize) at Cannes for its weird, unconventional, drug-fueled mystery set at a desert rave. I’m hearing that “Sirat” is the favorite…but Spain’s habits will push them towards the more established Amenabar….especially since “The Captive” is probably a more “Oscar-friendly” choice. But all three of these are very, very possible.
SWEDEN- “Eagles of the Republic” Sweden made a huge mistake last year when
they picked a cute little documentary (“Last Journey”) over Levan Akin’s
masterpiece “Crossing”. Since 2019, Sweden has always announced a three-film
shortlist and this year is pretty weak. Before their announcement, I predicted their shortlist would be Arabic-language political thriller “Eagles of the Republic” (Cannes), and family
dramas - “Kevlar Soul” and “Let Go” (Netflix), with road trip comedy “Live A
Little” as my alternate prediction. Swedish-born Tarik Saleh got Sweden a
surprise shortlist spot for “Boy From Heaven" (aka Cairo Conspiracy) and “Eagles” also played in competition at Cannes. It’s about a popular actor forced to star in a pro-government film by an unpopular military regime. Fares Fares
stars in both. That was my final prediction. In the end, Sweden shortlisted "Eagles" but ignored the other two, replacing them with Middle East documentary "Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989" and romantic comedy "The Dance Club". "Eagles" is still the favorite...but "Dance Club" changed its release date to be eligible this year and was helmed by a respected female director who has never been picked before...and Sweden has only picked a film directed by a woman once in the past decade. If it's good, "Dance Club" could easily win this. But since nobody has seen it, I'm still predicting "Eagles".
SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift” Switzerland doesn’t have a
clear pattern when they pick their Oscar candidates. They sometimes send films from
major festivals (though they don’t have too many) but sometimes films that had just small local
releases, including comedies and documentaries, and films made by dual nationals that have
little to do with Switzerland (last year’s excellent submission was
really from Peru). Before Switzerland announced their three-film shortlist in early August, I felt they had three really strong choices: "Frieda's Fall", "Late Shift" and "Sauvages", with "Late Shift" looking very much the strongest. I was shocked when "Frieda's Fall", a period drama about a mother accused of her killing her 5-year old child, and "Sauvages" (Cannes 2024), an animated film by the director of "My Life as a Zucchini", the last Swiss film to be shortlisted, didn't make the cut. So, it was quite obvious Switzerland would choose hospital thriller "Late Shift" (Berlin). Reviews are really good, it has a Netflix deal, and director Petra Volpe was picked for a lesser film in 2017. The other two films on the Swiss shortlist were Cape Verdean drama "Hanami" (also shortlisted for Portugal!) and "The Safe House" (La cache), a family comedy. They made the right choice.
UNITED KINGDOM- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” Last
year, many people were predicting “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” to be a potential
nominee for the UK after it won Best Director at Cannes Un Certain Regard. It
finally got released in Britain in December 2024 making it eligible this year. This
Zambian comedy-drama is a strong contender and will surely be
selected. If there is a shock decision, they could consider “Exodus”, a
political drama in Turkish, or “Tanau’r Lloer”, a family drama in Welsh. The UK
has picked several films in these two languages before.
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