BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- THE AMERICAS PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And here are my predictions for the 22 countries of the Americas.....Last year, I predicted two-thirds correctly (11/17). 

Last year, these countries got two spots on the shortlist for (the annoying) "Universal Language" and the lovely winner, "I'm Still Here"

  ARGENTINA- “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (La virgen de la tosquera) Argentina always picks a film that premiered at a major festival…In the past ten years, they picked seven brand-new films that premiered right around the deadline (5 from Venice and 2 from Toronto) and just three early releases (two from Berlin and one from Cannes). This is a rough year for Argentina. Their only Cannes/Berlin entry was “The Message” and that didn’t get very good reviews. Popular director Pablo Trapero is working in English (“&Sons”), while Lucrecia Martel is at Venice with a documentary (they’ve never picked one before). I’m pretty sure they’ll choose between “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (Sundance) about an adolescent girl who resorts to black magic, and the upcoming “Homo Argentum”, a series of comedy vignettes about the absurdities of Argentine life. If “Homo” can get selected for a big festival like Toronto or San Sebastian, I think it will be selected. But if not, the Sundance label will get “Quarry Lake” selected. Other options (in order): gambling drama “Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed” (Cannes 2024), LGBT drama “Astronaut Lovers” and grim family drama “La Quinta” (San Sebastian 2024).

  BOLIVIA- “The Dog Thief” (El ladrón de perros) It’s been a slow year for Bolivian cinema but they have one great choice- “The Dog Thief” – which has been playing at festivals around the world and which just won “Best First Feature” at the Pan-American “Platino Awards” and got Bolivia’s first-ever nomination in the Best Ibero-American Feature category at the Mexican Ariel Awards. It’s a great little film although I still don’t really get the ending. The only problem is that its writer-director is Chilean….and the crew is fairly international….but it has been competing as a Bolivian film at festivals. Some others are talking about UK-Spain-Bolivian co-production “Cielo” which has similar nationality problems but less buzz….But I think “The Dog Thief” is in.

  BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” For the first time ever, Brazil is in the Oscar race as returning champion. Last year, they learned that if you go with your biggest and best film, you can win an Oscar. Brazil has a lot of very good films this year. But with the Academy’s prioritization of “bigger”, it’s obvious they’ll go with Kleber Mendonca Filho’s crime drama “The Secret Agent”, which won Best Actor and Director at Cannes. This period drama, set in the 70s just like “I’m Still Here”, is about a mysterious man who returns to his hometown of Recife and it has the buzz and awards that should automatically get the film to the shortlist….and also strong reviews that will very possibly get it to the nomination stage. Two potential problems? The film is scheduled to premiere in Brazil in November….but I think they’ll do a qualifying release. Also Kleber was picked just two years ago…but winning the Oscar last year will teach them that they just need to pick their film with the best chance.  Other films likely to be on Brazil’s shortlist: “Manas” (Venice Days Winner, 2024), “Vitoria”, a star vehicle crime drama for 95-year old grande dame Fernanda Montenegro, and three of Brazil’s five Best Picture nominees from their national Film Awards- “Baby” (Cannes Critics Week 2024), “Kasa Branca” and “Malu” (Sundance 2024). Oscar nominee Montenegro is a national treasure, so “Vitoria” is probably the only other film that could realistically be considered….though “Manas”, about women growing up in a remote Amazon community, probably has the best reviews, and LGBT drama “Baby” looks most interesting.

  CANADA- “The Things You Kill” I’m hearing rumors that Canada is leaning towards “The Things You Kill”, a Turkish-language thriller that won Best Director in the International Competition at Sundance. The Canadian Academy is (oddly) inclined against the French-language Quebecois films that traditionally dominated here for 50 years. In the past five years, they’ve never picked a majority French-language film…..though they did have to replace the Tamil/English-language “Funny Boy” with a French one when it was disqualified. “The Things That Kill” is a revenge movie about a man plotting a murder after the suspicious death of his elderly mother. It was made in Turkey by an Iranian director based in Canada. Three previously submitted directors are also strong contenders this year– comedy-drama “Lovely Day”, which is due to premiere in Toronto (Philippe Falardeau, “Monsieur Lazhar”), France-set “Shepherds”, which won Best Canadian Film at Toronto 2024 (Sophie Deraspe, “Antigone”) and Inuit fairy tale “Wrong Husband/Uiksaringitara” which premiered in Berlinale (Zacharius Kunuk, “Atanarjuat”). And there are two other very well-reviewed French-language films that look exactly like the sorts of films that Canada usually liked to send- “My Mother, God and Sylvie Varta”, a comedy-drama about a determined Mom raising a handicapped child in 1960s Canada, and “Two Women” (Sundance), a dramedy about the misadventures of two modern but disillusioned middle-aged women. I’m predicting “Things That Kill” based on buzz, but it’s by no means a done deal. A new film could emerge in Toronto in September….or they could choose one of the very good French-language alternates. The most likely from this list is “Two Women”….or maybe “Lovely Day”. Canada hasn’t been nominated since 2012 though they’ve gotten shortlisted twice since then…for two of their weakest submissions.

  CHILE- “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” (La misteriosa mirada del flamenco) AIDS parable “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” won the Cannes Un Certain Regard award and it’s definitely the most likely Chilean submission unless something comes along at the last minute. There were high hopes for Sebastian Lelio’s “La ola” (Cannes), his first Spanish-language film since winning the Oscar for “A Fantastic Woman”….but this drama about a feminist student on a university campus has gotten middling reviews that are nowhere near as good as “Flamingo”. Other options: western “Bitter Gold”, Pinochet-era drama “Cuerpo Celeste”, and home invasion thriller “The Righteous”. But “Flamingo” should win this relatively easily.

  COLOMBIA- “A Poet” (Un poeta) The obvious choice for Colombia is “A Poet”, which won the Un Certain Regard Jury Prize at Cannes 2025. This comedy-drama about a disillusioned poet tutoring a teenager arguably has the best reviews of any Colombian film this year. Director Simon Mesa Soto was previously a favorite to represent Colombia for “Amparo” (they rightfully picked the excellent “Kings of the World” instead), and “Poet” will get a qualifying release in late August. Four others to watch in a very strong year for Colombian cinema: western “Adios Al Amigo” (Tokyo), family murder drama “The Other Side” (HBO Max), queer Hell comedy “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance), and “Salt Water”, a very weird but well-reviewed LGBT movie about a gay man who confronts the priest who gave him his first sexual experience. “The Other Side” will probably be the runner-up and may go to the Goyas.

  COSTA RICA- “The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener” (El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero ) Costa Rica will probably choose between documentary ” El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero” which won Best Costa Rican film at their national film festival, and “La piel del agua”, which premiered at a Locarno sidebar in 2024. The documentary – about two adult victims who come forward to present evidence in a landmark case against the priest who abused them – has much better reviews. Although Costa Rica has never picked a documentary before, this is likely to be their first.

  CUBA- “Cherri” Cuba has only sent one film in the past four years….and it was disqualified for unknown reasons (“El mundo de Nelsito” was assigned to a group of Academy voters for viewing but it was never downloaded into the online Screening Room and was later removed from committee assignments). They rejoined the Spanish Goya competition last year after an absence of several years. Could the Oscars be next? Cuba’s national film body (the ICAIC) published a press release this year that they were experiencing a “period of renewal” with a large number of new films in production, including one by Oscar nominee Jorge Perugorria (“Strawberry and Chocolate”). The only option I know that has actually been screened this year is comedy “Cherri”, which repped Cuba at the Miami Film Festival. It’s a drama about a lonely, overweight, gay dance instructor and I’ve heard very good things about it.

  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Bionico’s Bachata” (La Bachata de Bionico) The Dominicans have quite a competitive race this year. On paper, “Pepe”, a weird, dreamy “Uncle Boonmee”-style film about a ghostly hippopotamus, should be the frontrunner since it won Best Director at Berlinale 2024. But reviews have not been good and I’m not sure how it won. The Dominicans will likely also consider other three festival films - “Bionico’s Bachata” (SXSW), “Olivia and the Clouds” (Locarno, Filmmakers of the Present), and “Sugar Island” (Venice Days), plus two local releases, musical biopic “La Grande”, and “Tiger” by José María Cabral, one of my favorite Latin American directors and who has represented the DR three times. The Dominican Republic is one of those rare countries that usually seems to send their actual best film….and “Bachata”, a dark comedy about a crack addict trying to get clean, definitely has the best reviews and won an Audience Award at SXSW. This shows that it appeals to U.S. audiences (unlike the arty “Pepe” which won in Europe). I have “Pepe” in second place, followed by “Tiger”, which focuses on the Dominican Republic’s unhealthy toxic masculinity culture followed by “Olivia & the Clouds”, a quirky animated film telling one story from several perspectives a la “Rashomon”. I’m hoping for Cabral (whose films are always amazing) but would also be happy to see "Bionico" succeed.

  ECUADOR- “Fishgirl” (Alucina) Ecuador has two very cool-looking fantasy films competing this year- “Alucina (Fishgirl)” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Chuzalongo”, which was picked to represent Ecuador at the 2025 Goyas. “Chuzalongo” is a horror-drama rooted in local indigenous mythology about a child with the power to heal the crops…but who also requires human blood to work his magic.  “Alucina” is a comedy about a woman with amnesia…whose best friend is an imaginary giant fish. “Chuzalongo” didn’t get a Goya nomination last year (although Ecuador has only ever gotten one once....and that was 25 years ago) while “Alucina” played at a major festival so that’s my prediction.  I’ve heard it’s quite an odd but moving film. Dark horse: Ana Cristina Barragan has a new film premiering in Venice called "The Ivy" (Hiedra) about a mother who reconnects with the son she gave up for adoption when she got pregnant at age 13. It has no general release date and I think it will be eligible next year....but Barragan will probably be chosen if it does. Other options include documentary “Carmela and the Walkers” and political mockumentary “Victor Presidente”. 

  GUATEMALA- “Comparsa” If Guatemala sends a film, it will probably be documentary "Comparsa", produced by Jayro Bustamente who has directed three of Guatemala's four submitted films since 2015.  "Comparsa" tells the same story as Bustamente's "Rita", except in documentary form. It's about the deaths of dozens of Guatemalan teenagers in a fire at a welfare home for girls. It's in Spanish but it was made by U.S. citizen directors, which may affect its eligibility. But Bustamente's involvement may make it "Guatemalan enough". Contrary to popular belief, films by U.S. directors have been allowed to compete in the past, e.g. "How to Win at Checkers" from Thailand. As far as I know, the only fiction film eligible this year is romantic comedy “Un caquero sin pisto” which was released in late July and looks a bit silly. Guatemala did launch an official call for submissions but I predict they will take this year off.

  HAITI- “Kidnapping Inc.” There were unofficial reports that Haiti submitted comedy-thriller “Kidnapping Inc.” to the Oscars last year but it didn’t appear on the official list. It appears likely that the Oscar selection committee that chose the film wasn’t officially recognized by AMPAS. In the past few years, AMPAS has allowed several films in this situation (including Bhutanese Oscar nominee “Lunana” and last year’s Tajik submission “Melody”) to compete the following year. “Kidnapping Inc.” was clearly made on a tight budget by a team that loves the movies....It was a breath of fresh air and one of the most entertaining submissions last year (it’s available on Amazon) and I hope it gets a chance to compete (though of course it won’t be nominated). This year, Haiti also has the long-delayed political thriller “July 7” and Canadian-Haitian documentary “At All Kosts”, about artists protesting political dysfunction and gang violence.

 HONDURAS- “Navidad Catracha 2: El origen” Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020. This year, I know of only two local films and they are highly unlikely to send either one. The director of one of their previous submissions has a new Christmas movie (“Navidad Catracha 2: El origen”) that premiered in December and that's slightly more likely than commercial comedy “El hombre se ha vuelto loco”.

  MEXICO- “Olmo”  As usual, Mexico has a fairly interesting and competitive race. They somehow got shortlisted (but not nominated) four years in a row from 2020-2023 (I thought three of these films were terrible) but “Sujo” broke their winning streak. But still, their record shows that the Mexicans are very good at figuring out what their Northern neighbors will like. And I think that will be “Olmo” (Berlin), a coming-of-age dramedy about a Mexican immigrant family in New Mexico, which is executive produced by Brad Pitt. This kind of gentle drama usually works well for Mexico and the idea that Pitt would campaign for the film will surely push it ahead of the pack. Mexico also tends to choose late releases….so I there’s a strong potential chance for “En el camino” (produced by another Hollywood movie star….Mexican actor Diego Luna), an upcoming movie about a gay drifter and hitchhiker. It’s set to premiere at Venice Horizons. In 3rd place- Ariel Best Picture nominee (the only one that is eligible) “No nos moveran” (We Shall Not Be Moved), about an attorney trying to get justice for the murder of her brother, nearly 60 years earlier. Likely to be on Mexico's shortlist (but unlikely to be picked): family drama “The Devil Smokes” (Berlin) and hit mainstream comedy “Corina” (Tallinn Black Nights). But I think they'll pick one of the films that has a Hollywood connection. 

  NICARAGUA- Nothing Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010. Leonardo DiCaprio has been promoting Nicaraguan environmental documentary “Patrol” (Patrullaje) but I think it was eligible last year.

  PANAMA- “Beloved Tropic” (Querido trópico)  Panama has the most competitive race in Central America. There are at least a half dozen films that could easily represent the country- three dramas and three documentaries (Panama has selected four documentaries since joining the Oscar race in 2014). Of the three fiction features- “Beloved Tropic”, “Espina” and “Papeles”- I think the frontrunner is “Beloved Tropic” (San Sebastian), a Colombian co-production starring luminous Chilean actress Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) as a woman with dementia, and centering on her relationship with her immigrant caretaker. It won Best Central American Film in Costa Rica. Of the three documentary features – “The Panama Canal Treaties: Son of Tiger and Mule”, “The Sorcerer” and “Wild Gleaming Space” – I give the edge to “The Sorcerer” an artistic documentary-animation hybrid that won the Audience Award at Panama’s national film festival.  Panama likes documentaries…but I think “Beloved Tropic” will get this and that “Sorcerer” will be runner-up. It's important to note that “Wild Gleaming Space”, a documentary about mortality, is produced by Abner Benaim who directed Panama’s only shortlisted film….and that journalism thriller “Papeles” is directed by Arturo Montenegro who has already been picked twice. Political considerations may also come into play. “The Panama Canal Treaties” tells the story of 1970s negotiations with the U.S. to decide the future possession of the Panama Canal, which the new U.S. President has inexplicably reclaimed in a fiery series of speeches. I think that “Wild Gleaming Space” will come in third and comic drama “Espina” (the film I most want to see) will come fourth.

  PARAGUAY- “Under the Flags, the Sun” (Bajo las banderas, el sol) Paraguay rarely has films at international festivals but documentary “Under the Flags, the Sun”, premiered in Berlinale’s Panorama section this year. It tells the story of the 35 years of Paraguayan dictatorship (1954-1989) under Alfredo Stroessner through archive footage. Paraguay has picked documentaries before and this has good reviews so it’s safe to say it’s in.

  PERU- “Through Rocks and Clouds” (Raiz) Seven of Peru’s past eight submissions premiered at their Film Festival of Lima event, which is held every August. But because Peruvian films often take so much time to reach domestic cinemas, release dates are confusing. For example, two of those seven submissions (“Retablo” and “Rosa Chumbe”) were selected for the Oscars two years after they premiered! From last year’s festival, the two frontrunners would appear to be “Motherland” (Kinra), which won a few awards, and “Through Rocks & Clouds”, which won an award at Berlinale 2024 in the 14+ category. Both films are indigenous stories in Quechua and Spanish and appeared in the main competition in Lima. A third film, “Karuara”, which won Best Peruvian Film at Lima in 2024, is an animated film in the Cocama language.  From this year's festival, “Punku”, an environmental mystery that also played in Berlin and "1982", a village drama about local boys living amidst political turmoil, look the most likely. “Ramon y Ramon”, an LGBT drama from San Sebastian,  didn’t play in Lima but could be selected if they get a local release. Lastly, “Los indomables” could probably have been considered....but director Tito Catacora probably won’t be selected two years in a row.  “Through Rocks and Clouds”, about a young indigenous shepherd with cute kids and animals looks the most likely.

 PUERTO RICO- “This Island” (Esta isla) As I say every year, Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscars in 2010. One day, I believe AMPAS will realize their mistake and they’ll be allowed back when this ridiculous rule (that only affects Puerto Rico) is reversed. If it’s this year, Puerto Rico will surely send “This Island” which just won three awards at the Tribeca Film Festival. It’s a thriller about an impoverished young man and his wealthy girlfriend fleeing to the countryside following a violent family tragedy. Suerte, Puerto Rico!

 SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent one film to the Oscars in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This year they have a really interesting documentary option called “Monikondee” (literally ‘money country’) about a boatman who delivers cargo to a remote “wild west” region inhabited by indigenous people, former slaves, gold miners and multinational corporations, in a sort of "no man's land" between Suriname and French Guiana. It has Surinamese and Dutch co-directors and looks eligible.

  URUGUAY- “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame Fuerte) I think Uruguay will select “Don’t You Let Me Go”, a drama about grief and female friendship. It played at Tribeca ‘24, winning the Nora Ephron Award last year. I expected it would represent Uruguay last year but it didn’t get a domestic release until October 2024. Director Leticia Jorge has been picked once before. The two other strong possibilities are “A Bright Future” (Tribeca 25), a quirky sci-fi drama about a young woman in a futuristic dystopian world and “Perros” (Malaga) about a war between two feuding families. Uruguay often chooses genre films (especially comedies but also horror films) so I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked zombie comedy “Summer Hit/El tema del verano” (directed by 2004 Cannes UCR winner Pablo Stoll and co-starring Daniel Hendler) or action-thriller “Las 7 Balas”.

  VENEZUELA- “Visceral” Despite decades of political and economic crises, Venezuela has an accomplished film industry. They’ve sent a film to the Oscars every year since 1996 (they were disqualified once) and they have hosted a Festival of Venezuelan Cinema every year since 2005….until now. A few weeks ago, the Festival del Cine Venezolano was canceled for the first time which sadly means that Venezuelan national cinema has lost its largest platform. And although they still produce a lot of films, it looks most of their main contenders haven’t had the 7-day commercial release required to qualify. “Visceral” is a claustrophobic, psychological thriller about a married couple during COVID quarantine, that won a lot of awards at last year’s Festival de Cine Venezolano. I can confirm it got a cinematic release so that’s my pick. If “Zafari” (San Sebastian), a drama by Mariana Rondon (“Bad Hair”, “Postcards from Leningrad”) can get released somewhere then that’s equally likely. “Zafari” is about an impoverished family in Venezuela who live across the street from a zoo celebrating the arrival of a well-fed and pampered hippopotamus. Other options: docudrama “Lost Chapters” (Locarno) and migration drama “Hambre”. Dark horse: "La hija de la espanola", a new Venezuelan film premiering in Venice (also directed by Rondon), and starring Edgar Ramirez.