And here are the expected candidates from the Americas.....El Salvador, the only country in the Latin America never to submit a film, has formed a selection committee for the first time.
Last year, I predicted more than half of these correctly....I'm hoping to do even better this year and already have one right thanks to the Dominican Republic which became the first country to announce with cross-cultural love story "Melodrama"
ARGENTINA- “Glaxo” As always, Argentina has plenty to choose from. Two well-known (and previously submitted) directors have new films- Oscar winner Juan José Campanella’s geriatric dramedy “Strangers in the Park” and three-time Palme d’Or/Golden Bear nominee Lucretia Martel’s documentary “Our Land”. Add to that six new festival films- “Glaxo” (Toronto), “The Match” (Cannes), “Rosa and the Wind Phone” (Mar de Plata), “The River Train” (Berlin), “27 Nights” (San Sebastian) and “Virgin of the Quarry” (Sundance), plus two upcoming last-minute releases (which Argentina often picks) with big stars - Luis Machin’s “Barreda” and Ricardo Darin’s “Lo dejamos aca”,. "Dejamos" is theoretically releasing directly to Netflix...but they frequently will put a movie in theatres for a week to win awards. That’s probably Argentina Top Ten....
Apparently, they are announcing a four-film shortlist in September so four of those ten films are in, and six are out. I predict the lucky four will be "Glaxo", "Lo dejamos aca", "Our Land" and "Strangers in the Park". I'm putting my money on "Glaxo", the new noir mystery (Argentina's favorite genre) by Benjamin Naishtat. Naishtat was the favorite in 2023 (Argentina ultimately chose the messy "The Delinquents" over Naishtat's more mainstream "Puan") so he is definitely owed. Campanella is a beloved Oscar winner but "Strangers in the Park", about the friendship between two elderly men, isn't on the same level as "Secret in Their Eyes"....."Our Land", Martel's documentary about land encroachment against Indigenous people, is possible...though her films are an acquired taste. Argentina loves Ricardo Darin and his thriller "Lo dejamos aca" is absolutely a frontrunner but it's only 50-50 that the film will get into local cinemas. Nationalist football documentary "The Match" (which explores the country's World Cup heritage and anti-UK sentiment over the Falkland Islands) and the Argentine Carrie ("Virgin of the Quarry", which I predicted last year) are the most likely alternates for the final shortlist spot if "Lo dejamos aca" doesn't enter the race.
Can Naishtat beat Darin? If it's on the shortlist, "Lo dejamos aca" is the most likely to overthrow "Glaxo".
BOLIVIA- “La hija condor” Cinematically, Bolivia is
one of my favorite countries in Latin America and I’ve had the privilege to
meet some of their best filmmakers while living there. This year, they have two
strong options- (1)- “La hija condor” (The Condor Daughter), about an
indigenous Quechua girl trained to be a traditional midwife but who dreams of
being a singer in the city, and (2)- “Cielo”, a gorgeous-looking “magical realism”
film about a little Indigenous girl trying to help her deceased mother cross
over to the heaven. “La hija condor” has a Bolivian director and is a mostly
national production while “Cielo” is a UK production with a Spanish director.
Both have great reviews but I think “Condor Daughter” will get this.
BRAZIL- “On Behalf of My Son” On August 18, Brazil
announced that 15 films had registered to go to Hollywood. On September 9,
they’re scheduled to announce six semi-finalists and one week later on
September 16, they’ll announce the film that will represent Brazil. It’s a very
obscure list….As far as I can tell, only seven have played at festivals
(5 at Berlin, 1 at San Sebastian and one premiering soon in Toronto), and only one has reached 300 votes on IMDB ("Night Stage")…not a very high number. Only two directors –
Marcelo Gomes (“Cinema, Aspirin and Vultures”) and Gabriel Martins (“Mars One”)-
have represented Brazil before.
As I see it, here are the five tiers:
Strongest Contenders- 100 dias, Gugu’s World (Berlin K+ Winner 2026), On Behalf of My Son (Martins; Toronto 2026)
Likely to be on the Shortlist- Five Kinds of Fear, Malês,
Possible for the Shortlist- Dolores (Gomes; San
Sebastian), The Fabulous Time Machine (Berlin K+), Night Stage
(Berlin Panorama 2025)
Unlikely- Narcisa’s Will, Our Secret (Berlin
Perspectives), Papagaios
Likely Out of the Running- Around the Corner, The Condor
Conspiracy, The King of the Internet
I’m feeling good about these six films making the
shortlist….Let’s take a quick look:
1.
100 dias is an adventure film based on
the true story of a man who traveled from Namibia to Brazil in a rowboat in
1984. It’s one of the most hotly anticipated Brazilian films of the year and is
the live-action debut of Oscar-nominated animator Carlos Saldanha. It’s
arranging a qualifying release, which usually indicates it’s a frontrunner and
it’s the film I hear the most people mentioning as the likely Brazilian
candidate....But nobody has seen it.....
2.
Five Kinds of Fear seems to have the best
reviews among the non-festival entries, and I think they’ll
reward it with a spot on the 6-film shortlist. It’s a gritty multi-strand drama where five
storylines set in the inland city of Cuiabá (I've been there!)
gradually begin to intersect.
3.
Gugu’s World won Best Film at the Berlin
K+ competition this year for its gentle story of an effeminate 11-year old Black boy desperately trying to hide his grandmother’s Alzheimer’s to avoid
being sent to live with his abusive father. Very strong reviews (#1 on IMDB),
and the only film that’s actually won a major award.
4.
Malês, the “biggest” film on the
list, is a 19th century period drama about the slave trade and a
slave revolt that upended Brazilian history in 1835. The director is a
respected 87-year old actor who directed his first film in 1978 and waited
nearly 50 years to make his second. It’s likely to make it for both sentimental
reasons and because the film is “important”.
5. The Nature of Invisible Things has by far the most festival play of any of the films and the best reviews on aggregator sites (3.9 on Letterboxd). It’s a tender coming-of-age drama about the friendship between two young girls.
6.
On Behalf of My Son, by the director
of “Mars One”, is a drama due to premiere in the Platforms Section in Toronto
(and thus hoping for an automatic entry to the Oscars), about an elderly woman
visiting the families of the victims of a deadly accident (or was it??) caused
by her dead son.
And the others? Director Marcelo Gomes is well-respected and “Dolores”, a
drama about three generations of women, looks solid but reviews don’t look as
enthusiastic as the predicted six. Queer erotic drama “Night Stage” got
festival play and is the only film available in the United States, but may be
“too gay” for the Oscars. And quiet 70-minute documentary “Fabulous Time Machine”, about
girls growing up in fiercely macho rural Brazil, has good reviews but it
probably too “small”. Any of them could make the shortlist though I doubt any would have a chance at winning the nomination.
Ultimately, I think this will go to one of the new films-
“100 dias” or “On Behalf of My Son”…but as I write this entry, nobody has seen
either. Last year, Brazil confirmed that picking the “big” film (“Secret Agent”
instead of “Manas”) is a smart move.
That bodes well for “100 dias”. But for reasons I don’t understand I am
feeling that “On Behalf of My Son” is the one. In 3rd place-
“Gugu", 3rd- “Nature” and 5th- “Five Kinds of
Fear”.
CANADA- “Cost of Heaven” Canada’s film used to basically be synonymous with Quebec. From 1971-2021, all but three Canadian submissions were made by French-Canadian filmmakers and were mostly in French. (The three exceptions were Indigenous filmmaker Zacharias Kunuk, Anglo-Canadian Attila Bertalan and Indian immigrant filmmaker Deepa Mehta). That changed in 2022. Since then, none of the four Canadian submissions have been primarily in French, and only Kurdish-Quebecois director Zayne Akyol was French-Canadian.
This year, Canada has one of the most interesting races of the year….Tons of great options and no frontrunner....I’m stumped! I see nine real possibilities- (1)- “Cost of Heaven” (Toronto), a thriller about a man in debt, (2)- “Follies” (Locarno), a sex farce about a married couple who decides to experiment, (3)- “Labrador- Autopsy of Silence” (Tribeca), a slow-moving, arthouse mystery set aboard a cargo ship, (4)- “Montréal, ma belle”, a drama about a Chinese immigrant (Joan Chen) who begins a lesbian affair late in life, (5)- “Nina Roza”, a Bulgarian-language film that won the Silver Bear for Best Screenplay in Berlin and is about a Bulgarian-Canadian returning home for the first time in decades,(6)- “Paradise” (Berlin), by an Oscar-nominated Short director, about the lives of two young men, one in Ghana and one in Canada; (7)- “Redemptions”, a thriller about a retired hit man forced to do one last job, (8)- “We’ll Find Happiness”, a drama directed by Lea Pool, already on VOD in the USA, about two gay Muslim immigrants trying to stave off deportation from Canada and (9)- “Wrong Husband” (Berlin/Toronto), a mystical Inuktikut-language fairy tale. And I only researched films from the French and Inuk communities!…It’s possible they have some diaspora option I don’t know about.
I have no idea which of these great options they’ll choose…It’s one of the closest races in the world this year. As an experiment, I picked my Top Three…and then I asked AI to pick its Top Three. Only one film matched both lists- “Cost of Heaven”, the thriller about a 50-year old man deep in debt, taking desperate measures to survive. It also looks the most Oscar-friendly. So, that’s my prediction. But the Canadian Academy loves to highlight “multicultural Canada” so I predict the starpower of Joan Chen’s “Montreal ma belle” (in French and Chinese) will come second, the Berlin award of “Nina Roza” (in Bulgarian, French and English) will come third, with “Paradise” fourth, and LGBT asylum drama “We’ll Find Happiness” in fifth. But all of these would be great for Canada.
CHILE- “The Red Hangar” (Hangar rojo) Chile announced earlier this month that eleven films were being considered to represent the country, including two set in the 1970s during the early days of the Pinochet era (“The Chilean” and “The Red Hangar”), two set inthe 1980s during the waning days of the Pinochet era (“After the Fog” and “Summer War”) and three set in the early 1990s during the early days of the post-Pinochet era (“Cuerpo Celeste”, “Left Unsaid” and “The Meltdown”). That's a lot of nostalgia! With many Chilean artists horrified by the election of a right-wing Pinochet apologist as President this year (his opponent was a far-left Communist, leaving centrists without a candidate), this makes sense. Also on Chile's shortlist are two more dramas (“Mil pedazos” and “La perra”), a migration documentary (“Unwelcomed”), and an unconventional B&W punk superhero comedy (“Matapanki”). Ironically, five of these are also coming-of-agers about young girls....will they all cancel each other out?
The two frontrunners appear to be the two 70s dramas- “The Chilean” (which premiered in Locarno this week) and “The Red Hangar” (Berlin Perspectives). I was all set to predict “The Chilean”, a biopic about a Chilean socialist/anarchist/ saboteur/emigre living in 1970s Italy, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. So I'm switching to the black-and-white “The Red Hangar”, about how good people are tempted into evil during the earliest days of Pinochet’s reign of terror. I think this will resonate with American audiences suffering under Trump….so it’s probably the better choice. Do any of the other films have a chance? Probably not…most of them have good reviews but none have great reviews. But since I usually give a Top 5, I think the strongest runner-ups are “The Meltdown” (Cannes UCR), possibly the best of the five girl-coming-of-age dramas, “Matapanki”, a low-budget and fiercely original comedy that actually has the most enthusiastic reviews of the bunch, and topical immigration documentary “Unwelcomed”.
COLOMBIA- “Barrio Triste” Colombia has had a relatively quiet year but they have several promising entries in Toronto, and a lot will depend on how good the new films are and how fast they can get them into theatres. Up until now, Colombia has three main possibilities- “Barrio Triste” (Venice Orizzonti 25), about a gang of youths who steal a video camera and use it to document their lives, “Noviembre” (Toronto Discovery 25), a fictionized retelling about a group of hostages hiding during a real-life 1985 terrorist attack, and “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance 25), a queer punk retelling of Dante’s Inferno. (It looks like Gregg Araki and I have to see it....) But premiering in Toronto, we have “Where the River Begins”, about a woman who flees her Bogota ghetto for the countryside, and “Bovine with the Curved Horns”, a magical realism story about an Indigenous boy searching for his father. I doubt those two will be released in cinemas this year, but it is possible....But Colombia will probably pick one of the first three. “Barrio Triste” looks like the sort of gritty, urban film Colombia usually sends to the Oscars, while “Rains Over Babel” has the best overall reviews and has won awards with American audiences….(well...gay American audiences...)…It’s a confusing race. I’m predicting “Barrio Triste”, with “Babel” in a close 2nd place, and “Where the River Begins” in 3rd, but probably eligible next year.
COSTA RICA- “If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the
Night” Little Costa Rica has a tough race! Already released this year are “If
We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night” (Si no ardemos, como iluminar
la noche), which won Best Costa Rican Film at their national film festival,
“The Skin of the Water” (La Piel del Agua), their 2025 Goya submission, which
got Costa Rica its third-ever Goya nomination, plus “Abril”, by Hernan Jimenez,
who directed Costa Rica’s best-ever Oscar submission (the charming rom-com Entre
nosotros). Of these three, sexual abuse drama “If We Don’t Burn” will be
certain to be selected. But wait! Costa
Rica won Best Actress at Cannes Un Certain Regard for “Forever Your Maternal
Animal” (Siempre soy tu animal materno), a female-driven family drama,
and Paulina Garcia is headlining “Love is the Monster” (Amor es el monstruo),
a buzzy thriller due to premiere in Toronto about a grandmother whose
granddaughter is kidnapped while in her care. Those two do not have release
dates yet. “If We Don’t Burn” seems most likely but watch out if Paulina can get
her film into cinemas by September 30.
CUBA- “Baracoa” Cuba was a regular participant at the
Oscars from 1987-1997 and again (more or less) from 2002-2020, netting one
Oscar nomination for “Strawberry & Chocolate”. Since the pandemic, they’ve only sent one film….and that
film was assigned to Oscar voters and then mysteriously deleted from the Oscar
Screening Room before it was downloaded. With political tensions with the U.S. running high
and electricity running low, it’s unlikely Cuba will be back but I should note that their Havana Film Festival did take place in December and they had three new local features in competition -
LGBT dramedy “Cherri”, tragicomedy “Neurotic Anonymous” (directed by actor
Jorge Perugorria) and political spy thriller “Nora”. However, their biggest contender of the year is clearly Italian
co-production “Baracoa”, an eccentric road movie about a bitter young man and a drag queen doctor. The movie makes Cuba look absolutely gorgeous and it's probably the Latin American film I
most want to see from this list. Spain-based Pavel Giroud, who has been picked
to rep Cuba twice, has a new spy comedy that he made in Germany, about a plot
to assassinate Fidel Castro…That will definitely not be sent.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Melodrama” Last week, the Dominican Republic became the first Latin American country to announce. I got it right!....Here's what I wrote prior to the announcement:
The Dominican
Republic made the dumbest decision in the world last year, sending “Pepe” – quite possibly
the worst film I’ve ever seen- instead of “La Bachata de Bionico”, which I
haven’t seen but which got great reviews, won Best Picture at the national La
Silla awards, and simply couldn’t have been worse. Last year was very strong for the Dominicans…This year is a bit weaker but but the island country still has plenty of options. The best-reviewed
film of the year is probably “Melodrama”, about the romance between a wealthy
Dominican widow and a Haitian migrant worker. It challenges racial and social
constructs in the multicultural Dominican Republic. But last year, the DR showed they cared
more about festival play than quality, which means they could pick “Don’t Come
Out” (No salgas), a lesbian thriller that played at Berlin 14+, and which is a
particularly traumatic coming-out story. Three well-known directors also have
new films- Leticia Tonos has been picked four times (more than any other
director) and she has a well-reviewed new music biopic – “Milly: Queen of
Merengue”…though American audiences clearly won’t know or care who Milly is; Laura Amelia
Guzmán and Israel Cárdenas (selected twice before) have comedy-drama “Interior Apartment Day”; and
Angel Muniz, the first-ever director to represent the DR at the Oscars in the
1990s has “Man’s Game”, about a young baseball player who comes out as gay. Two
dark horses: the DR has never picked a documentary but abortion doc “Scarlet Girls” is one of the best-reviewed Dominican
films of the year (abortion is illegal in the DR in all cases, including rape). “Under the Same Sun” (Toronto), a 19th
century period drama, would be at the top of the list but it has a
Spanish director. That’s seven interesting options! While I think “Melodrama”
will win, “Under the Same Sun”, “Don’t Come Out” and “Milly: Queen of Merengue”
(in that order) also have a chance to be selected.
ECUADOR- “The Ivy (La hiedra)” Ecuador has an
interesting choice this year between creepy-looking arthouse favorite “The
Ivy” (La hiedra), and the locally successfully jet-black comedy “Damned Old People” (Viejos
Malditos). With awards at festivals like Venice (Horizons) and San
Sebastian, it’s obvious that “The Ivy”, about the uncomfortable relationship
between a 30-something woman and a local teen, is the frontrunner and will
probably represent Ecuador. Director Ana Cristina Barragan's previous Oscar submission "Alba" was very good. Comedy “Viejos”, about a cranky old man, a cat and
some nasty neighbors, was the top local hit of 2025…has reviews every bit as good as “Ivy”….But Ecuador’s submissions are usually dark and dramatic so
my prediction is still “Ivy”. Unlikely: breast cancer
documentary “Mama” . In other news, Sebastian Cordero,
Ecuador’s most famous international director has a majority-Colombian film
coming out on Netflix but it looks like it won’t be ready by September 30.
EL SALVADOR- “Vértices” As menioned, El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never entered the Oscar race. However, in August they announced that AMPAS had recognized a national selection committee and that they will announce their first-ever Oscar submission on September 18. However, it's unclear what they could send as their first-ever submission. The biggest film of the year about El Salvador - “Fireflies at El Mozote" - was a majority U.S. production (starring Mena Suvari! Remember her? Where's she been?) mostly in English. Fun comedy “Wet Christmas” is the second-highest grossing Salvadoran film of all time…but it’s a slapstick comedy made by a local comedy troupe (many dressed in drag) about trying to sneak into the U.S. “Vértices”, about friends reuniting at a funeral after 30 years, looks far more serious but it’s only 60 minutes long. The same goes for “Cipactli: The Crocodile Goddess”, a documentary about the country’s Nahuatl indigenous heritage. Horror flick “Hospital” will premiere soon too. None of these look particularly promising but maybe they'll send "Vertices"? We'll soon see.
GUATEMALA- “Cordillera de Fuego” Guatemala has submitted five films to the Oscars. Three of them were directed by Jayro Bustamente, who is working hard to develop Guatemala’s next generation of filmmakers. All four of Bustamente’s films were great although sadly his best one – LGBT drama “Temblores”- was the only one not sent to the Oscars. Anyway, it would be foolish to bet against Bustamente’s new film, “Cordillera de Fuego”, about a team of scientists trying to help an indigenous community evacuate a volcanic disaster. Hotly anticipated drama Nosotros, premiering in Toronto, is more likely to get a cinematic release next year…and its transgender themes may put off the same voters who decided not to submit Temblores. UPDATE: Guatemala announced that Cordillera de Fuego is one of two Oscar finalists, competing against Los imaginarios, said to be a confusing sci-fi effort. Bustamente will get this easily.
HAITI- “Marie Madeleine” Despite its political and economic chaos, Haiti has sent three films to the Oscars since 2017, which is pretty good considering how difficult it is to make films
in the country. Gessica Geneus directed “Freda” and starred in “Kidnapping
Inc.”. This year she did both in “Marie Madeleine”, which got a
coveted slot in the Cannes Film Festival's Premiere sidebar this year. It’s about a prostitute in Jacmel
(one of Haiti’s safer cities) who develops an unusual relationship with a
local minister. Haiti also has “The
Tropic Sun and His Eyes” (Tribeca), which was made by a Haitian-American
filmmaker in Cap-Haitien, another fairly safe city, about a man and a street
kid searching Haiti for the man’s estranged father. Both of these films have
wonderful reviews and would be great choices to represent Haiti’s beleaguered
film industry…But Cannes trumps Tribeca. Expect “Marie Madeleine” to be on this
year’s longlist and I can't wait to see it.
HONDURAS- “Eva” Honduras submitted films from
2017-2020. They have a very real possibility of returning this year with “Eva”,
a drama about a trans woman who seeks to reconnect with her estranged son in order to
get him to take care of the newborn daughter he has abandoned. Having been gone for five years, they'd need to get AMPAS to recognize a new committee.
MEXICO- “On the Road” (En el camino) Mexico announced
a month ago that 17 films
had registered (15 fiction features and two documentaries) for the chance
to represent Mexico at the Oscars. Four of them are directed by relatively big
names- Jonas Cuaron, Gael Garcia Bernal, Diego Luna and Chile’s Maite Alberdi. 16
of these films have already been released so let’s look at those first.
Tier One: Campeon
Gabacho (Cuaron), Flies, On the Road, Sad Girlz
Tier Two: Ashes
(Luna), The Devil Smokes, Garden We Dreamed, The Reserve
Tier Three: A
Child of My Own (Alberdi), La eterna adolescente, Mutaciones, Oca
Tier Four: Crocodiles,
Don’t Leave the Kids Alone, Flamingos, Sobre las olas
So let’s look at Mexico’s top tier….
- Boxing drama “Campeon Gabacho” premiered at SXSW and has a recognizable cast of U.S. Latino and Mexican actors (including Ruben Blades, Cheech Marin and Rosario Dawson) acting opposite the star of “I’m No Longer Here”. More importantly, it’s produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron (the director’s papa). Reviews have been good (some say it’s overly sentimental…but is that bad when you’re trying to get an Oscar?) and it adds a heavy dose of magical realism to the traditional gritty world of boxing movies.
- The low-profile “Sad Girlz” has some of the best reviews of the group - it won the 14+ category at Berlinale this year, and it follows the lives of two teen swimmers and best friends in the aftermath of a sexual assault. Despite the great reviews, it's much more low-profile than the other three contenders so I'd say it's a long shot.
- Gay trucker-meets-hustler drama “On the Road” got 13 Ariel nominations (including the Big 3) and a big win at Venice 2025 (Best Film, Orizzonti). It’s considered to be the favorite and I agree…It’s the one I hope goes to the Oscars.
- Lastly, we have “Flies” (Berlin Main Competition, 2026), a dramedy about a solitary middle-aged woman who develops a friendship with her new lodger and his 9-year old son. Reviews are good but will Mexico want to pick two droll B+W comedy-dramas about grouchy old Mexican women living alone two years in a row?
So, if the competition were held today, “On the Road” would
probably get this, followed by American-audience-friendly “Campeon Gabacho”, “Sad
Girlz” and “Flies”, in that order. But wait! The one unreleased film is Gael Garcia Bernal’s
hotly anticipated “Hombre el agua”, which will premiere in Venice and then Toronto, traditionally a great platform for Oscar hopefuls. We won’t know if the film is great or not
until September but it’s a twisty psychological comedy-drama that looks very,
very promising. It’s probably between “Hombre el agua” and “En el camino” but I’m sticking with
“Camino” for now.
NICARAGUA- Nothing. Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2010 and I don’t think they’ve produced a national feature film since 2022. They definitely won’t submit this year, although they do have an artistic documentary called “My Skin and I” in post-production, which has Nicaraguan and American co-directors.
PANAMA- “Tropical Paradise” (Paraiso tropical)” Panama has had a relatively weak year but they will likely submit “Paraiso tropical”, a documentary that won the Audience Award at IFF Panama. Director Abner Benaim has repped Panama three times and he was Oscar shortlisted for “Plaza Catedral”. His latest documentary examines a 1994 terrorist bombing, which investigators believe was carried out by Hezbollah, despite being thousands of miles away from the Middle East conflict. They don’t have many other serious contenders even though they did have seven local features at IFF Panama this year (3 fiction, 3 documentary and 1 hybrid). I suppose the runner-up could be “Fast Cash”, a ‘100% local’ action-thriller.
PARAGUAY- “Narciso” Few countries have an easier
decision this year than Paraguay. “Narciso” won the FIPRESCI Prize in Berlin this year for period thriller “Narciso”, which is a gorgeously filmed drama set amidst
Paraguay’s Stroessner dictatorship in the 1950s. Reviews are very good and director Marcelo
Martinessi previously directed “The Heiresses”, which was probably the closest Paraguay has come to
the Oscar shortlist. It got a domestic release in April and, honestly, Paraguay
doesn’t have any other strong options. It’s in and I can't wait to see it!
PERU- “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) Peru always has the most confusing race in Latin America because the country has odd film distribution problems….More so than any other country, local films tend to come out in cinemas 1-2 years after appearing on the film festival circuit. For example, 18th century indigenous revolution drama “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables) premiered at the Lima Film Festival in 2024....but it is eligible this year. I'd love to know why.
In recent years, the Peruvian Academy has shown a strong preference for
the country’s small Indigenous-language cinema. In the past eight years, five
submissions were dominated by Indigenous casts and stories, and a
sixth film ("Song Without a Name") had an Indigenous lead. That's why “The Legend of the Last Inca” (Los indomables), written by filmmaker Óscar
Catacora right before his untimely death at age 34, is my pick. Three other
films I considered predicting (“1982”, “Anatomy of Horses” and “The Girls' Garden”) are all scheduled to be released in October and November 2026, which means
they’ll be eligible next year…though Peru did do a qualifying release
for the charming “Erection of Toribio Bardelli” in 2023. “1982”, about an
Indigenous family forced to leave their home, is the most likely candidate to try this approach. Other options: “Heart of the Wolf” (Malaga), about a
child who is kidnapped and forced to join the Shining Path terrorist
group, is the latest from 77-year old senior director Francisco José Lombardi,
who made six of the eight Peruvian films submitted to the Oscars between 1983 and 1999 (but Peru hasn't sent any of the seven films he has made since then); Los inocentes (San
Sebastian) is about toxic masculinity and gangs; and well-reviewed
documentaries Runa Simi (a quixotic quest to dub the Lion King musical into
Quechua) and Uyariy (following the aftermath of Indigenous protests
violently quashed by the government) have great reviews....but Peru has never
selected a documentary. A lot depends on which of these films get screened and which
ones submit themselves for consideration. “The Last Inca” feels like the safest
bet but I’m not at all confident I got this one right.
PUERTO RICO- “Summer of Three” AMPAS invited Puerto
Rico to send films to the Oscars from 1986-2010, but they were rudely and unfairly
disinvited, supposedly because they are a U.S. territory. (Greenland and Hong Kong continue to be invited). Puerto Rico has a distinct, independent and
accomplished local film industry, as evidenced by their 1990 Oscar nomination
and 2024 Goya nomination. I assume AMPAS will one day correct their mistake and
if it’s this year, the Puerto Ricans will be debating between two well-reviewed films from Tribeca - “Esta isla” and ”Summer of Three”, two very different movies about youth
on a road trip. The higher-profile “Esta Isla” is about a mismatched teen
couple fleeing a local crime lord while “Summer of Three” is a love triangle
about a teen who joins an unconventional couple on a motorcycle trip following his
grandfather’s funeral. These both have great reviews but I think “Summer of
Three”, which will open the Puerto Rico Film Festival this month, would be the one picked if AMPAS has a change of heart.
SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Suriname, a Dutch-speaking country on South America's Caribbean coast, sent a single
fiction film ("Wiren") in 2020. They’re unlikely to return, but they did have an
interesting documentary last year called “Monikondee” that premiered in
Suriname in November 2025. It’s about the riverboats that travel around
Suriname’s wild jungle interior, transporting cargo to remote indigenous and
Afro-communities. Sounds very interesting!
URUGUAY- “Loose End” Uruguay will probably be deciding between Daniel Hendler’s comedy caper “A Loose End” (Un cabo suelto) and Lucia Garibaldi’s quirky quasi-sci-fi-drama“Bright Future” (Un future brillante). Both films have very good reviews and would make very good choices. Hendler is a popular Uruguayan actor who works mostly in Argentina. Garibaldi won Best Director in Sundance for “Los tiburones” but wasn’t sent to the Oscars (the cute but forgettable “The Moneychanger” went instead). “Loose End” played at a major festival (Venice 25) and Hendler is a bigger name...plus the Uruguayan Academy usually selects comedies.....so I’m predicting “A Loose End”, a comedy about an Argentinian on the run who flees to Uruguay. There, he starts a new life and meets a bunch of warm, local Uruguayan characters. “Bright Future” is an odd drama about a woman who gets a job “up north” - a mysterious place from which nobody returns. Those are the two frontrunners but Gustavo Hernandez’s latest haunted house horror flick “The Whisper” and theatre drama “Fragile Like Glass” could appear if there is a shortlist.
VENEZUELA- "Death Has No Master" Unlike
Cuba, Venezuela has continued to submit films to the Oscars despite economic
collapse and tensions with the United States. This year, they have two films
representing the country at festivals around the world. Asia Argento stars in
thriller "Death Has No Master", which got great notices at Cannes.
It's the story of an heiress who travels from Europe to Venezuela to inherit
the family plantation, but gets a hostile (violent?) reaction from those living
on the land. Looks Gothic and creepy and I'm excited to watch my screener next week. Edgar Ramirez
co-stars in "It Would Be Night in Caracas" (Venice 2025), a political
thriller about a woman trying to survive political turmoil and armed militias.
Is the film too political? Is the committee political? (The Venezuelan committee usually
chooses apolitical films but last year they picked a chavista one).
"Death Has No Master" has better reviews and is less political so
that's my guess. Dark horse: documentary "The Extraordinary Journey of
Dragon" was the Venezuelan submission to both the Spanish Goyas and the Argentinian AMPAS Awards last year.
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