And here are the 29 candidates from the Asia-Pacific region....Last year, a record 22 of these countries sent films, though AMPAS mysteriously disqualified 5- Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan and Thailand.
Afghanistan-
“No Good Men” Afghanistan, which is now sadly back under barbaric Taliban rule, hasn’t sent a film since 2019. I hope
they return one day, possibly with a selection committee “in exile”, since
their filmmakers continue to work and make excellent films while living abroad.
This year, it would be wonderful to have “No Good Men”, a dramedy filmed in
Germany about a modern careerwoman working at a local TV station, in the race. Described
as a (sort of) Afghan rom-com, it’s directed by Shahrbanoo Sadat, who is one of
the country’s leading female filmmakers.
Australia-
“First Light” Obviously
most Australian movies are made in English but they’ve participated in this
Oscar category more or less regularly since 2006. Although you’d expect they’d
mostly send films in native Aboriginal languages, they haven’t sent one since
“Charlie’s Country” in 2014. Since then, Australia has sent films made by
Aussie directors in some of the world’s most far-flung places- Afghanistan
(twice), Bhutan, Italy, Macedonia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vanuatu, as well as the Persian
community in Melbourne. This year, they could add Palestine or the Philippines to
that list, by sending either Gaza aid worker documentary “Until the Sky Falls
Quiet” or “First Light”, a moral dilemma drama (I love these!) about a Filipino
nun who witnesses a fatal accident. They
could also return to Mongolia for the second year in a row with “Iron Winter”, a
documentary about efforts to save a herd of horses during a particularly brutal
Mongolian winter. Any of these are possible, but I have a hunch the fiction
feature will beat out the documentaries. Dark horse: “Ripples in the Mist”,
about two Hong Kong women living in Australia by Clara Law, who made
Australia’s first-ever Oscar submission thirty years ago.
Bangladesh-
“Master” Bangladesh
has had a good film year and they usually send something interesting to promote
their national cinema. I see a total of seven option....In alphabetical order: (1)- “Blind
Girl & an Elephant” (Shanghai), about three girls trying to escape their
superstitious village, (2)- “Bonolota Express”, a box-office smash
adventure-comedy with very good reviews, (3)- “Delupi” (Rotterdam), a small
environmental drama about rural flooding, (4)- “Master” (Rotterdam), a
political thriller about an honest man who becomes tainted by local politics,
(5)- “Roid” (Rotterdam again), about a rural man dealing with a mentally ill
wife, (6)- “Sand City” (Karlovy Vary/Busan), about two strangers who collect
sand (?), and (7)- “The University of Chankrapul”, a political satire featuring
cutthroat university politics. Variety called “Master” a ‘gripping drama’ and Deadline called
it the first Bangladeshi film to win a major award at a European festival. I
think the Bangladeshi Academy is brave enough to send something a bit
political….It’s definitely their best option if it gets a cinematic release
somewhere and it's the one I hope to see representing Bangladesh at the Oscars. “Roid”, whose director has
been picked before for “Hawa”, will likely be runner-up with mega-hit
“Bonolota” in third. I can confirm those have screened at cinemas.
Bhutan-
“The Debt Call” “Dobchu”,
the hit horror film that dominated Bhutan’s 2026 Film Awards was released in
last year’s cycle so it's not eligible. Bhutan doesn’t usually submit to the Oscars unless
they have a film on the international film festival circuit...but if they do send a film this year, it’s like to be “Pindarikaa” (which looks
pretty gorgeous), which looks like some
sort of swords-and-sorcery action movie, or “The Debt Call”, a gritty drama about a rape victim who abandons
her baby. “Debt Call” got screened in Australia which means it definitely has
the subtitles necessary to be submitted, so that’s my prediction.
Cambodia-
“Becoming Human” Cambodia
didn’t have any festival films last year so they sent a flawed but fun and very
creepy horror movie before it was disqualified for unknown
reasons. This year, they’ll probably choose between two festival films- Rithy
Panh’s ethno-environmental documentary “We Are the Fruits of the Forest”
(Berlin/Tokyo) and supernatural drama “Becoming Human” (Busan/Shanghai). They
usually pick the Oscar-nominated Panh but I have a hunch that the more visible
“Becoming Human”, about a female ghost who is faced with the difficult choice of earthly
haunting or rebirth, will get this. I have family dramas “The Old Man” and “Me
& My Brother” as unlikely runner-ups.
China-
“I Know Who You Are” The
Chinese Academy changed tactics last year - instead of sending a terrible film,
they sent a good one. Sure “Dead to Rights” was a nationalist war film, but it looked
great, was well-made and acted and, most importantly, filmed with an adult
audience in mind. This was a shift from terrible big-budget action sequels “Wandering
Earth 2” and “Wolf Warrior 2” or cute but inappropriate Oscar entries like
kiddie anime “Ne Zha”. China is
notoriously difficult to predict but I see the two frontrunners as expensive
martial arts period piece “Blades of the Guardians” and regime drama “I Know
Who You Are”, which is directed by Feng Xiaogang (previously picked for
“Aftershock” and “Back to 1942”) which covers 40 years of Chinese history. “I
Know Who You Are” looks stronger on paper, although it was reportedly a flop at
the box-office. “Blades of the Guardians” looks like the sort of big-budget action
movie China has generally picked in recent years (and it’s already been
released on Amazon, which I think helps) but although it was made in China, in
Mandarin Chinese, by a Mainland film studio, it’s talent is mainly from Hong
Kong…so HK may claim it instead. Two other possibilities from this land of one
billion people- Teochew melodrama “Dear You” (aka “A Letter to Grandma”), a
tearjerker with no stars that has unexpectedly become China’s top box-office
hit of the year, though I’m not sure China will select a film in a regional Chinese
dialect; and abstract sci-fi drama “Resurrection” (Cannes 2025) has gotten
mostly great reviews…. but it’s much more arthouse than we’ve seen from
China in years. Three other potential frontrunners have been sidelined – 17th
century period epic “The Belief” was supposed to be China’s summer blockbuster
but it was mysteriously pulled from cinemas before its premiere; “Living the
Land” won Best Director in Berlin 2025, and was approved by the Chinese
censors…but it has been the subject of a nationalist backlash and hasn’t
actually made it to cinemas; and “Scare Out”, a thriller by the usually
reliable Oscar nominee Zhang Yimou, has received absolutely poisonous reviews
from critics. I’m probably way off….but I’m predicting “I Know Who You Are” for
now.
Fiji- “Adi” Fiji sent a movie once, way back in 2005 but they don’t have a developed national film industry and rarely make films. However, there has been buzz about the first entirely Fijian-language film, “Adi”, about a woman called on to perform the traditional duties of a male chief. Would make a great second entry.
Hong
Kong- “The Furious” So,
the Hong Kong Academy usually sends either action movies or moody melodramas.
If they go “action” this year, then “The Furious” is likely to be their pick.
One of their best-reviewed and most exciting action movies in years, “The
Furious” is a sort of HK version of “Taken”, with a vengeful (and mute) father
searching for his missing daughter who has been abducted by human traffickers.
The director is Japanese but he has longstanding connections to Hong Kong and
could definitely be seen as “local”.
Big-budget action movie “Blades of the Guardians”, reputed to cost over
$100 million, is also possible, although it could also compete for CHINA. The
critically maligned crime drama “Sons of the Neon Night” is supposed to be a
very beautifully made film and it won most of the tech awards at this year’s
Hong Kong Film Awards where it also got a Best Picture nomination…so someone
must like it?? If they want “melodrama”, then the frontrunners are
“Afterpiece” (Shanghai), which looks like a Cantonese “Sentimental Value”; and
“Cyclone”, a transgender tale that closed the HK Film Festival. There’s also
“Ciao UFO”, a drama that swept this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards (Film,
Director and Screenplay), plus quirky reincarnation anime “Another World”,
showing off Chinese animation in a genre traditionally dominated by Japan. Based
on the Hong Kong Academy’s preferences, I think the popular “Furious” will be
picked, though growing buzz for “Afterpiece” and the sheer size of “Blades”
could elevate either of those films to the top. I have “Another World”, which
arguably has the best reviews, in a distant fourth.
India- TBD This will take too long. "Homebound" was shortlisted last year which means the stubborn Indian selection committee may have learned that (1)- films from major festivals do well and (2)- it helps to have a strong U.S. backer (like Martin Scorsese) helps. However, India didn't have many films at major festivals this year (certainly none with the gravitas of "Homebound") and I don't know of any Indian films with a Hollywood backer. "Ramayana" looks promising...but it won't premiere until November. They've picked Hindi-language "Bollywood" predictions two years in a row, so regional films may have the edge. I'll do this one later.
Indonesia-
“Four Seasons in Java” Indonesia is difficult to predict because the
Indonesian Academy chooses from a very diverse range of films….In the past eight
years they’ve sent a gory horror film, a commercial Netflix comedy, a popular
sci-fi romance based on a web-series, a political thriller, a Tarantino-esque
feminist thriller, an LGBT drama that upset Islamists, and two arthouse dramas.
Six out of eight were chosen from the major international film festivals, but two had virtually no play at all. The national Citra Awards are the
best precursor….four of these submissions won Best Picture while the other four
were nominated (though most of this year’s contenders will be eligible for this
year’s awards so it doesn't help at all). As the world’s fourth-largest country, Indonesia has plenty of
films to choose from, but I see the five leading candidates (in alphabetical
order) as (1)- “Four Seasons in Java” (Toronto 2026), (2)- “Ghost in the Cell” (Berlin
Forum 2026), (3)- “Levitating” (Sundance), (4)- “Nobody Loves Kay”, and (5)- “On Your
Lap” (Busan), which also won Best
Picture at the 2025 Citra Awards. Joko Anwar (“Ghost in the Cell”) and Kamila
Andrini (“Four Seasons in Java”) are both seeking to be picked a second time - something only two Indonesian directors have achieved before. I’m putting my money on Kamila and “Four
Seasons”, which is about a sexual assault survivor who faces an angry community after
being released from prison for killing her attacker. While nobody has seen it
yet, Andrini impressed with “Yuni” and the well-timed late release in Toronto could provide the buzz to win. However, it is scheduled to be released in October so it
would need a qualifying run. If not "Seasons", it seems likely Indonesia will pick Citra
Award winner “On Your Lap”, a social drama about the “hostess” industry, or
maybe Anwar’s crazy “Ghost in the Cell”, a supernatural-prison-drama-action-musical-horror-comedy
(?!?!!), about a violent prison facing off against a ghost. I have “Levitating” in
4th and “Kay” in 5th. Dark horses include husband-and-wife
thriller “Dopamine” (which I really want to see), and a local remake of Iranian
Oscar nominee “Children of Heaven”.
Japan-
“All of a Sudden” Japan
loves Cannes. In the past eight years, they got six of their submissions from
Cannes (the exceptions were anime “Weathering with You” and thriller “Cloud”, both of which were surprises and poor choices).
This year, the preference for Cannes will help five films- Oscar winner Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a
Sudden”, Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Sheep in the Box” and Koji
Fukada’s “Nagi Notes” (all of which were in the Main Competition”), plus
Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s “The Samurai and the Prisoner” and the far less high-profile “All the Lovers in the Night”, starring Tadanobu Asano. The
Hamaguchi film definitely has the best reviews but it’s mostly in French...and I’m not sure
how the Japanese will feel about that….I think it will be okay because it's not like "Sacred Fig" or "Mustang"...the film does have three lead Japanese
actors....so I expect it’s okay. Kurosawa is #2 for his samurai "Knives Out"…but he was picked just two years ago
and the Japanese Academy rarely repeats directors so soon. But Japan makes odd choices
sometimes (look at “Cloud”) and there are a lot of other choices. Puzzle mystery “Bakudan”, referred to as the
Japanese “Seven”, was a huge hit; teen runaway drama “Burn” (Sundance) also
sold out cinemas; Hirokazu Koreeda's “Look Back”, about two mismatched guys brought together by
a love of manga will premiere in Venice and will be Koreeda’s second contender
of the year; and “Tokyo Taxi” is a sweet little drama about an elderly woman and
a taxi driver, which could be the final film of 94-year old Yoji Yamada,
who has made 91 feature films and represented Japan at the Oscars five times (including
the Oscar-nominated “Twilight Samurai”). One possible final candidate is “Godzilla Minus
Zero”. I was ready to predict “Godzilla” because Takashi Yamazaki is a
respected director who has never been picked for the Oscars (he should have been picked for
“Always: Sunset on Third Street”, which was somehow snubbed by the sweet but
forgettable “Hula Girls”) even though he’s an Oscar winner for “Godzilla Minus
Zero”. The problem is that it’s not expected to be released until November and
a blockbuster like this isn’t the sort of film that you can arrange a 7-day secret
release for….This is hard. I think the finalists will be “All of a Sudden”,
“Look Back” and maybe “Godzilla”...with “Burn” if they’re looking to reward
somebody new. I hated “Drive My Car” so it pains me to say this, but I’m predicting
Hamaguchi, followed by Koreeda's "Look Back".
Kazakhstan-
“Turgaud” Last
year, Kazakhstan was disqualified because of a conflict-of-interest issue, because
the selection committee chose horror film “Cadet” even though cinematographer
Yerkinbek Ptyraliyev was part of the committee. I’m actually very unsure of
what Kazakhstan will send this year. Their best option would appear to be
“Turgaud”, a violent Tarantino-esque “neo-western” about mafia loyalty, directed
by Adilkhan Yerzhanov. But the Kazakh Academy has an odd relationship with
Yerzhanov…It’s true that he was picked in 2021 and 2025 (he directed “Cadet”)
but he submitted a very well-reviewed film for consideration in 2023 and Kazakhstan
decided to send nothing rather than send it to the Oscars. Yerzhanov is
incredibly prolific and makes 1-2 movies each year. If they don’t want to pick him
again so soon, they could go with doping/swimming drama “Becoming” (Locarno),
counterterrorism biopic “Capitan Baitasov”, mother-daughter drama “Malika”
(Busan) or dark social media parable “Sicko”….Finally, they could arrange a
qualifying release for big Communist-era epic “The Nomad’s Legacy”, directed by
Maria Kunarova (“The Crying Steppe”) and which is scheduled for a domestic release
in November. It’s one of the more
wide-open races in Asia this year…For now, I’ll predict “Turgaud” (which is probably
what they should send), with “Sicko” (which also looks great) and
“Malika” as the most likely runner-ups.
Korea- “Possible
Love” South Korea
has had a relatively quiet year which makes it all the more strange that they
asked for submissions so incredibly early (June 19), making it difficult for
films scheduled for a fall release to qualify. The proof? In 2023, there were
14 films submitted, in 2024, 15 and in 2025, 19. This year, there were just
six. Three of them are sci-fi/horror films (“Colony”, “Hope” and
“Salmokji”) and this committee generally dislikes that. The others include a noir
crime drama (“Project Y”), an obscure documentary (“Mr. Kim Goes to the
Cinema”) and one drama (“Possible Love”). “Possible Love” is directed by Lee
Chang-dong, an aging auteur director, former Minister of Culture, three-time
Palme d’Or nominee, Venice Silver Lion winner and the first-ever Korean
director to make the Oscar shortlist (for “Burning”). “Possible Love” and has been announced for the Main Line-up at Venice. In such an exceptionally
weak year, "Possible Loves" will clearly be selected. For the record, it’s a 3-hour drama about
the intersecting lives of four strangers. So, in order….
1. 1. Possible Love (Venice, Main Competition)....which could actually go to the Oscars automatically if it wins Venice, giving a second spot to....
2. Hope (Cannes Main Competition), a genre-bending monster movie featuring cameos by Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander (Letterboxd: 3.3)
M 3. Mr. Kim Goes to the Cinema, an obscure (vanity?) documentary featuring the 85-year old founder of the Busan Film Festival visiting cinemas, and meeting with some very high-profile international directors (including Lee Chang-dong!) (Letterboxd: 3.3)
3. 4. Colony (Cannes, Midnight Screening), high-concept zombie/mutant virus movie (Letterboxd: 3.3)
5. 5. Project
Y (Toronto/Busan) A
female noir heist thriller that nobody seems to love (Letterboxd: 2.9)
6. 6. Salmokji,
a horror movie
with middling reviews (Letterboxd: 2.7)
Kyrgyzstan-
“Kurak” In my
opinion, the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan may be the best film-making
country that has never been nominated. Though they have few resources or funds
for PR, they submit solid films year after year. This year, they have no less
than four films at major international film festivals- “Backstage Madness”
(Tallinn Black Nights), “Kurak” (Busan), “Mergen” (Rotterdam) and “Skylark”
(Shanghai), plus the sequel to the record-breaking box-office hit “Paradise at
Mother’s Feet 2” which was sent to the Oscars in 2024. This is probably between
(1)- “Kurak”, a drama about the Kyrgyz women’s rights movement, fighting
against long-standing gender-based violence and patriarchy, and (2) “Paradise
2”, a religiously themed Islamic drama sequel that would probably be a poor
choice. “Skylark”, which premiered a few weeks ago and which would be the first
film directed by a Kyrgyz woman to be submitted, is a potential dark horse. It’s
a “coming-of-age village drama”…and the Kyrgyz have sent a lot of these over
the years!
Laos-
“Kong Koi” (aka "Wrecked") Laos
sent a single horror film to the Oscars in 2017. I know of two domestic
releases this year, neither of which seems likely to convinced them to come back. Horror
film “Kong Koi” is about a female ghost from Thai/Lao mythology that haunts the
jungle on one leg, while “Philo: For Love” seems to be some sort of kidnapping
thriller. I vote for “Kong Koi”.
Malaysia-
“Khadam” Malaysia
began submitting regularly to the Oscars in 2019. This year, they have a number of options and no obvious frontrunner. Malaysia used to unofficially only consider films
in Malay, the country’s official language, even though the country’s most
acclaimed films usually came from the Chinese minority. That has now changed. I
see the three frontrunners (in alphabetical order) as “Badak” (Netflix), “Fox
King” (Toronto/Busan 2025) and “Khadam”. Father-daughter drama “Badak”
sounds a bit like a cross between “Coda” and “Gully Boy”, as a young female
rapper seeks to start a music career over the objections of her working-class (and deaf!) father. The director, a Singaporean Malay, previously represented
Singapore for “La Luna”. Domestically,
reviews have been good and most of Malaysia’s recent selections had Netflix
backing so this is a strong possibility. “Fox King”, a coming-of-age drama
about two twin brothers more or less abandoned by their father after his re-marriage, has festival cred from Toronto and Busan. But the Southeast Asians
love their scary movies (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand have
all sent full-on horror films to the Oscars) and “Khadam” is the best-reviewed
one of the year. It's a slow-burn horror film about a woman facing off against a supernatural entity that is targeting her young daughter. “Macai” (Rotterdam), a crime-thriller
about the country’s Tamil Indian community, is a potential dark horse, as is
“Mother Bhumi” (starring Fan Bingbing!), although director Keat Aun Chong was
selected last year. I think “Khadam” is going to Hollywood.
Mongolia- “Colors of White Rock” Like Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia almost always sends fantastic films to the Oscars year after year without any recognition. I am always very excited to see their entry…I’ve seen all of them and they haven’t sent a bad one yet…The strongest (“The Steed”) deserved an Oscar nomination and even the weakest (“Veins of the World”) was just fine. This year, Mongolia seems to have three possibilities from major festivals – dramas “The Muralist” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Unopened Letter” (Moscow) and documentary “Colors of White Rock” (Tribeca) - plus a drama called “Hello Mother”. The director of “The Muralist” was picked last year for the wonderful original “Silent City Driver” (which won Tallinn 2024) so I think they’ll spread the wealth and give this to “Colors of White Rock”, a documentary about the life of a female long-haul truck driver – one of the few in macho Mongolia, with “The Muralist” as the runner-up. But it could logically be any of these four.
Nepal-
“Elephants in the Fog” Every
year, there is one country whose submission process is a shit show. Last year
was Nepal, where jealous filmmakers trashed the selection of women’s football
drama “Anjila” after a brief selection process that coincided with domestic unrest.
With a Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize for transgender tale “Elephants in
the Fog”, hopefully this year will be easier for Nepal. The film is getting a
domestic release in September (possibly to coincide with the Oscar deadline?)
and has very good reviews, so this should be an easy win for them. If they do
choose to send a more “commercial” social drama (as they often do), expect
child marriage drama “Gauthali” or family drama “Aa Bata Aama” to be in the running.
New
Zealand- “Crocodile” New
Zealand was a regular participant in this category from 2011-2018, sending
films mostly in Pacific languages (Maori and Samoan) but also Persian and
Chinese. Since then, they’ve only sent one film, despite a number of very good
options…so it seems they don’t see this category as a priority anymore, unlike
neighboring Australia. Two previously submitted directors have new films this
year who could potentially get the Kiwis to fill out the paperwork- Pietra
Brettkelly’s crazy cell phone documentary “Crocodile” (in Nigerian Pidgin) and
Tearepa Kahi’s war docudrama “Sgt. Haane” (in Maori)…but both of those could be
more than 50% in English. I’m not sure. PNG environmental documentary
“Sukundimi Walks Before Me” would be a safer choice. But since
Brettkelly has been picked twice and got screened at Berlinale, that’s my
prediction.
Pakistan-
“Ghost School” While
their neighbors in India and Nepal squabble over their Oscar choices,
Pakistan’s committee consistently sends solid entries whenever they can....in
a delightfully eclectic mix of genres, ranging from social dramas and comedies, to animation
and horror. “Joyland” deserved to be nominated; “Circus of Life” probably
deserved to win. They didn’t really have anything last year and so they
skipped, but I think they will be back this year with one of their two films on
the festival circuit, “Lali” (Berlin Panorama) or “Ghost School”
(Toronto/Berlin 14+). Family drama “Lali”,
about a newly married woman whose previous three fiancees have died, is by the
director of “Circus of Life”, so I have very high hopes. But “Ghost School”, a
mystery about a young girl trying to solve the mystery of why her local school
was suddenly closed, has slightly better reviews. Dark horse: neither of the
two frontrunners has had a cinematic release yet (apparently "Ghost School" was banned in Sindh but cleared censors in Punjab, but hasn't screened in either state) so they could consider the dark
action-comedy “Aag Lagay Basti Mein”…They picked a similar film in 2019.
Papua
New Guinea- “Sereva: A Papuan Tale” Papua
New Guinea tried to make its Oscar debut last year but well-meaning ethnic road
movie “Papa Buka” was mysteriously disqualified for unknown reasons. While the
film was clearly a debut effort, it was a great showcase for emerging Pacific
cinema. I doubt they’ll return this year, but they did make an open call for
submissions again. If they do, it could be “Sereva: A Papuan Tale”, a feature
documentary made by an Italian director about a rural boy’s quest to build a
canoe.
Philippines- "Filipiñana" The Philippines has one of the most confusing races of the year though I finally settled on “Filipiñana”, just because it really has played almost everywhere since its premiere earlier this year in both Sundance (where it won a Special Jury Award) and Berlin and because it got a U.S. distributor (Kino Lorber) that would theoretically help the cash-strapped country promote its film. It’s a dark comedy and class satire set at an elite golf club that looks like it will resonate with both American and international audiences. It seems like it would be a good choice. Their other top candidate is “Silenced Nights”, a drama about the witness to an extrajudicial killing….a seriously hot topic in the Philippines. It is hoping to go to the Oscars automatically via the Toronto Platform Prize…so expect the Philippines to make its announcement late, after Toronto. I have a major hunch it will be one of these two films, but there are lots of other options from this nation of over 100 million. Rural land rights documentary “Bloom Where You Planted “ won Best Picture at last year’s Cinemalaya festival for indie cinema, and the Philippines have picked many of their past submissions from there; Jun Lana’s “Call Me Mother” is a dramedy about a lesbian raising her beloved stepdaughter whose life turns upside down when her ex wants her biological child back; the animated “58th” re-enacts the events following a 2009 massacre that shook the country, and is the latest from the director of “The Missing”, Lav Diaz’s latest heavy drama “Let Us Through, Dear Ancestors” is set to premiere in Venice (though I don’t think he’ll be picked twice in a row)….”The Loved One”, about two ex-lovers who reunite, was a major critical and box-office hit; ”Manila’s Finest”, a period drama following a 1970s murder investigation got good reviews at Metro Manila; “Quezon” is a dull-looking political biopic that has gotten lots of nominations at local awards show and finally “Raging” (Berlin) is jungle drama about a local boy investigating a plane crash.
Singapore-
“We Are All Strangers” 32-year
old Singaporean wunderkind Anthony Chen has been picked three times before,
including for the first two films in his “Growing Up” trilogy. The third film –
“We Are All Strangers” – premiered in the Main Competition at Berlin and is
sure to represent the city-state. It’s a
family melodrama with very strong reviews…arguably his best since “Ilo Ilo”.
Girl gang drama “Amoeba” (Toronto) also has very good reviews but probably doesn’t
stand a chance against Chen. Unknown: odd sci-fi wuxia action film “The House on the Moon” is set to
premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno, making two Class-A festivals for
tiny Singapore.
Sri
Lanka- “Riverstone” Sri
Lanka has a fairly developed film industry but they haven’t sent a film to the
Oscars since 2009. If they return, I’ll make the same prediction I did last
year and suggest “Riverstone”, a “moral dilemma” drama about three Sri Lankan
police transporting a condemned prisoner. It won two awards in Shanghai last
year and appears to have gotten a local Sri Lankan release this past spring. I'd love to see this film bring them back.
Taiwan-
“A Foggy Tale” I
see three main possibilities for Taiwan this year- wedding farce “Double
Happiness” (Tokyo), about a man getting married at two weddings simultaneously
to please his divorced parents, grim coming-of-ager “Girl” (Venice, Main
Competition ’25), which is the directorial debut of actress Shu Qi, and “A
Foggy Tale”, a road movie full of gallows humor set against the background of
Taiwan’s “White Terror”, in which the military regime killed real or suspected
political opponents. Interestingly, all three films (and last year’s
Oscar-shortlisted “Left-Handed Girl”) competed against each other at the
Taipei Film Festival, which features a local “Taiwanese Film Awards”. “Foggy Tale”
won Film, Screenplay and three tech awards, “Double Happiness” won Director,
Actor and Supporting Actor, “Left-Handed Girl” won Editing (Sean Baker!), and
New Talent, while “Girl” just won a single Cinematography award. More important than
the Taipei Awards is Netflix; five of their last seven Oscar submissions had Netflix deals, which bodes well for “Foggy Tale” and “Double Happiness”. In
the end, I think the more serious nature of “Foggy” (plus the better reception
at TFF) will play in its favor over "Double Happiness". Dark horses: It was obscure music documentary
“Dance of a Soloist” that actually won the Taipei Film Festival Grand Prize,
while late release “I Blew Out the Candles Before Making a Wish”, about life in
Macau, has been generating some late buzz.
Tajikistan-
“Fish on a Hook” Poor
Tajikistan has the worst luck at the Oscars. They submitted a very good film
(“Sex & Philosophy”) in 2005 but it was disqualified when the print didn’t
arrive in Los Angeles in time. They next submitted in 2023 with “Melody”…which
was disqualified because they didn’t have an approved selection committee (it
was allowed to compete the following year). Last year, the charming “Black
Rabbit, White Rabbit” – the best film of the three – was disqualified too,
which I heard (but cannot confirm) was due to some odd music copyright violation.
Only their initial 1999 submission (the excellent “Luna Papa”) made it to
Hollywood unscathed. I visited Tajikistan on vacation this year and it is truly
a beautiful and charming country. This year, they actually have two lovely
rural dramas if they choose to remain in the competition…and I really hope they
do. The first is “Fish on a Hook”, which won Best Picture at Tajikistan’s local
film festival last year, and the second is “Another Birth” (Busan), made by a
New York-based Tajik woman filmmaker. Both of these films about rural children make
an excellent choice, and both would be the first time since “Luna Papa” that
Tajikistan would be represented by a local Tajik filmmaker (the other three had
Iranian directors who came to Tajikistan so they could make Persian-language
films without Islamic censorship). It’s a tough decision, but I give the edge
to “Fish on the Hook” since the director is Tajikistan-based and the film is an
Iranian co-production like the previous three modern submissions.
Thailand-
“Gohan” Like
Korea, Thailand unexpectedly released an early shortlist last month…I don’t understand why they are doing this so early because there is a major advantage to seeing how late releases are
received by critics....and because new films are often slated for release at the
last minute. In any case, the eight finalists include three festival/“arthouse” entries-
“Human Resource” (Venice Horizzonti/Busan), “Nine Temples to Heaven” (Cannes
Director’s Fortnight) and “Regretfully at Dawn” (Busan), four “commercial
entries”- “Four Tigers”, “Gohan”, “In the Name of Love” and “The Undertaker 2:
Afterlife”, plus Pen-Ek Ratunaruang’s “Morte Cucina”, a thriller vehicle for
Tadanobu Asano which falls halfway between the two categories. All but
action-fantasy “In the Name of Love”, (premiering in September) have screened for critics. I see this as
a race between “Human Resource”, arguably the best-reviewed of the three
festival films, stray dog anthology “Gohan”, which has been touted as a
successor to the Oscar-shortlisted “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” and the buzzy "Nine Temples to Heaven". Unlike other countries, Thailand usually chooses commercial audience-pleasers
rather than intellectual festival films (like the slow-moving “Nine Temples to
Heaven”). “Gohan” tells three stories by three different directors about how
one dog affects the lives of three human families. Two of these three directors
have represented Thailand at the Oscars before and the film has been a major box-office and critical success. The Venice label will certainly “Human
Resource”, a well-reviewed office drama about a young Thai woman working in HR
who discovers she is pregnant. Its director has also been selected before.
“Nine Temples to Heaven” has the Cannes label but this dull film is said to be
similar to Apichatpong Weerasethakul…who is actually not popular in Thailand.
“Morte Cucina” looks great and has star-power but reviews are probably the
weakest of Pen-Ek Ratanaruang’s career. “Four Tigers” has great reviews but
looks too light; “Undertaker 2” is a sequel to a film most people haven’t
seen….The unreleased fantasy “In the Name of Love” could certainly surprise if
it’s great but I still think “Gohan” and “Human Resource” are the strongest possibilities. "Gohan"'s artistic and tonal similarities to "Grandma", which got Thailand to the shortlist for the first time, mean I'm predicting it wins....but it will be very close.
Uzbekistan-
“The Great Amir and Donna Maria” Uzbekistan
sent two films in 2019 and 2021 and then quickly gave up. It’s possible they
could return with costume drama “The Great Amir and Donna Maria”, an epic
historical film that looks gorgeous, about a woman in 2026 who learns her fate
is somehow mysteriously linked to that of a European concubine enslaved in a 15th
century harem. It was made by the director of Uzbekistan’s last 2021
submission. However, it’s unclear to me if the film is in English or not. If it
is, they could consider “Cotton” (Cairo), an arthouse film about a village
woman desperately trying to make ends meet in the absence of her husband who disappeared
while working abroad. But they’re the least likely of the four Central Asian
republics to submit this year.
Vietnam- “Spirit Guardians” Vietnam makes mostly poor choices. In the past eight years, they have mostly veered away from arthouse cinema, choosing two commercial comedies (2018, 2021), two commercial action movies (2019, 2022), and two jingoistic war dramas (2024-2025). Many of these were not popular with local or international critics (especially embarrassing box-office flop “578 Magnum”). Only one, “Glorious Ashes”, played at anything resembling a major festival (Tokyo). This year, I don’t know of any big, patriotic dramas, which means I won't have to suffer through another "Red Rain". A normal country would probably choose “Ky Nam Inn” (Toronto/Busan), an intimate and critically acclaimed drama set in the 1980s, about the relationship between a younger man and an older widow after the fall of Saigon. That would probably be the choice if the year ended today…But I think they will ultimately send “Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor”, a splashy 10th century period martial arts fantasy starring Hollywood actor and stuntman Johnny Tri Nguyen, which will premiere during Vietnam’s National Day holidays in September. It's already been picked for a Toronto TIFF premiere. I’m feeling good about this pick, though “Ky Nam Inn” will probably do better with Oscar voters. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Vietnam: “Zero Meets Hero”, a gentle, intergenerational comedy about a war veteran and his Gen-Z grandson encountering Vietnamese folk traditions on a road trip, “Blood Moon Rite 8”, a very well-reviewed horror-comedy that I’d love to see, and “Bunny”, a commercial Netflix thriller made by a previously submitted director. Not considered: “Hearing” will premiere in Locarno but the director’s previous film “Taste” was banned and the directors subjected to fines for making it without permission.
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