2026 International Oscar Submissions- The Films from Eastern Europe (20 films)

It’s that time of year again!

The unofficial list is out and there are 86 finalists plus six films that seemingly got disqualified for a total of 92. I’m quite proud of myself because I predicted 42 out of these 92 countries correctly….and I am giving myself "extra credit" for three others because I predicting them in different years.  That’s almost 50%...my best record yet.

I’ve seen 34 of this year’s films and the overall quality is much better than last year. Since I’ve seen so many of the films, I’m going to try and do more “review”-style reporting, which is also a good way to thank the films that I’ve been sent as screeners.

Today we'll look at the films from Eastern Europe because I was fortunate to see the majority (12 of 20) of them this year. Here is a rundown of the 20 films submitted from the Eastern European region.

Let’s start with my two favorites….They’ll almost certainly be on my own personal “shortlist”:

BEST OF THE REGION: 

MONTENEGRO- “Tower of Strength” Despite it’s awkward English-language title (the Montenegrin title “Obraz” roughly translates as “honor”), “Tower of Strength” was definitely my favorite of the twelve films I’ve seen from the Eastern Euro region and - so far - of the 34 entries I've seen from around the world.  The first-ever Albanian-language film to represent Montenegro, “Tower of Strength” is about a family facing a heartbreaking moral dilemma...and nobody does these kinds of films better than Balkan filmmakers (my personal favorite, “Trap”, got Serbia to the shortlist way back in 2007). “Tower of Strength” is set during WWII in a rural area along the Yugoslavia (Montenegro)-Albania border, populated mostly by ethnic Albanian communities. A Nazi-allied Albanian militia is ethnically cleansing the area of Slavic Christians but one little boy manages to escape after his family is killed, and begs for asylum at the home of a highly respected Albanian family who has maintained neutrality during the war. The Fascist militia gives the family patriarch a choice – hand over the Christian boy, or his entire family will be brutally killed. Knowing a little bit of Albanian culture and Balkan history helps, though it’s not necessary to understand the high stakes in the film. Good and evil is universal. In some ways, "Obraz" is actually a very old-fashioned film and I think it might have been nominated in the 80s and 90s. While I generally don’t like “old-fashioned” films….“Tower of Strength” skillfully uses its old-school filmmaking to beautifully capture the lives of this Old World family (unlike, say, a film like Agnieszka Holland’s “Charlatan” which just comes across as dusty) with beautiful shots showing how people lived inside dark, traditional family homes. "Obraz" also does what the best International Feature submissions should do – it exposes us to a new culture and to that country's traditions, in this case the Albanian Kanun, a series of codified laws that define justice and honor. And while I certainly won't reveal how the film ends, I will say this....In a year where some wonderful films do not know how to finish their screenplays (Canada, Slovakia etc.), "Tower of Strength" provides a satisfying conclusion to its story. 

Do I think Montenegro has a chance at making the shortlist? No, sadly, I do not. ☹ With the new rules, only those films that can get voters to watch outside their assigned group will ever make the shortlist. But hopefully it will be seen by those who can appreciate it. And if any Oscar voters are reading, I hope you’ll give tiny Montenegro a chance! This is one of the films I can't stop thinking about and it deserves some Oscar love! 

GEORGIA- “Panopticon”- Another film that could use a better title….in English, this sounds like some of sci-fi drama when it’s actually a coming-of-age drama about toxic masculinity. Sandro is an 18-year old Georgian struggling with issues of faith, nationalism and sexuality in modern-day Georgia’s politically charged environment. He’s occasionally sympathetic….occasionally creepy…. and occasionally alarming….and having been to Georgia many times, probably a very realistic character. Some reviewers call Sandro an ‘incel’, but that’s inaccurate because he has a girlfriend who wants him to take her virginity…but his complicated feelings about religion seem to prevent him from taking action. This is a surprisingly sweet and well-acted story despite its tough subject matter, and one of the best character studies in this year’s competition. I would love to see this low-budget drama advance but I think it’s way too small to get voters’ attention. I would love to be wrong.

 And now let’s take a look at the others, in alphabetical order:

ARMENIA- “My Armenian Phantoms” A love letter to Armenian cinema, made by Tamara Stepanyan, the daughter of one of Armenia’s leading actors who passed away in 2021. You can feel the emotion and the pride that Stepanyan has for her father and his work. And if you have any interest in Armenian/Soviet cinema or culture, you’ll find this look through Armenian film archives fascinating (I recognized “Colour of Pomegranates”). However, this is kind of a niche subject that will probably go over the heads of most viewers.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Blum, Masters of Their Own Destiny” Emerik Blum was an innovative Yugoslavian industrialist who worked within the Communist economic system to create the most dynamic and productive company in the entire Eastern Bloc. While Mr. Blum was certainly an inspiring character, this documentary is really just a bunch of “talking heads” telling us how smart and wonderful he was. I agree that he was. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the film. But I expected more from Oscar nominee and Golden Berlin Bear winner Jasmila Zbanic, especially when Bosnia also had jet-black nursing home comedy “Pavilion”. 

BULGARIA- “Tarika” Bulgaria had a strong film year and many were surprised when “Tarika” was picked over some higher-profile films. “Tarika” is a “magical realism” story about a man whose superstitious fellow villagers believe his quiet, young daughter carries bad luck that is cursing the entire community. Year before, the girl’s mother either died, disappeared or “flew away”, depending on which rumors you choose to believe. “Tarika” is a slow film that works best when delving into its fantasy elements, and I wish it had leaned more into its folktale mythology. But it’s a sweet film that makes you think and I can see why it is was picked. 

CROATIA- “Fiume o Morte!” The oddest and most original of this year’s twelve documentaries, “Fiume o morte!” consists of a series of historical re-enactments using real residents of the town of Rijeka (in Croatia)/Fiume (in Italian), of an absurd but true incident from 1919 when an Italian poet/aristocrat briefly became the dictator of an independent city-state centered on the town. The film is very funny, very informative, and slightly too long…..and at the end has quite a lot to say about ethnic identity, big dreams, nationalism and the futility of war. And what I’ve read online, it definitely has its fans.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “I'm Not Everything I Want to Be” The Czech Republic deserves some kind of editing Oscar for this documentary, which is composed entirely of still photographs to tell its story. 73-year old photographer Libuše Jarcovjáková narrates her own story, which begins in Communist Czechoslovakia, and details the Prague Spring, the country’s underground LGBT movement, a fascinating look at 1960s Japan, emigration to Germany and the fall of Communism. Having said that, Jarcovjáková is a grouchy and sullen protagonist and while the historical context is interesting, it’s hard to get into her life story. But, the photo collages are so well integrated that it almost seems like you’re watching a regular documentary

ESTONIA- “Rolling Papers” Richard Linklater goes to Estonia…”Rolling Papers” is a slacker comedy-drama about a young man trying to find his purpose. Director Meel Paliale made the film at age 26, making him the youngest director in the competition this year. Many of us can remember a time when we were like the 20-something main character…unsure of what we wanted to accomplish in life and with an exaggerated sense of self-importance….The film actually starts off looking like a buddy comedy, as our protagonist’s new best friend convinces him to leave his shift at the convenience store and go skinny dipping in the lake nearby. The friend is a far more interesting character and maybe I would have liked it more if it focused on the more free-wheeling Silo rather than the moody Sebastian. This is a cute film and I recommend seeing it…but sometimes the 20-something angst eventually grates just like a real 20-something does.

LATVIA- “Dog of God” Last year, Latvia got their first two Oscar nominations, winning one (Best Animated Film) for the gentle, wordless “Flow”. This year they picked another animated film but the two couldn’t be more different. “Dog of God” is a phantasmagorical, scatological acid trip of a movie, set in a Latvian village and animated using rotoscope. A wholly originally mix of Brother’s Grimm, Eastern European humor and Japanese horror-anime, mixing class conflict with werewolves and witchcraft…and a rather odd ending, this is one of the most fun films on the list. International Oscar voters will probably hate it, especially if they’re looking for another family-friendly “Flow”….but I really enjoyed this one.

LITHUANIA- “Southern Chronicles” This is apparently the highest-grossing film in Lithuanian history and it’s numbers (e.g. 4.1 on Letterboxd) show that it must really resonate with local audiences. I didn’t like it at all. This is a film set in the early days of Lithuanian independence about a guy trying to figure out what to do with his life in the early 1990s. (it feels a lot like the Estonian film, though Lithuania’s entry is far more blue-collar). I thought the film was pretty ugly to look at; that may have been on purpose to capture the era of financial difficulties. Maybe something got lost in the translation? I found the characters unlikable and the film was neither funny nor dramatically interesting.

SERBIA- “Sun Never Again” This slim 72-minute film starts off with a charming look at a village celebration. Told from a young boy’s point of view, it focuses on a small Serbian town faced with industrial mining. The day after watching it, I could barely remember seeing it.

SLOVAKIA- “Father” Hmmm….The less you know about this film, the better it will be. All I will say is that it’s about how a happy middle-class family deals with an unexpected tragedy. While it occasionally veers into soap opera territory, it’s still a very powerful film with a great performance by Milan Ondrik (as the titular “father”). There are some odd moments….like when Ondrik runs completely naked in an oddly gratuitous scene….and some great moments…..at the birthday party at the end of the film….and unfortunately an ending that makes me wish the film ended just two minutes before the credits.

I haven’t been able to see Albania, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Ukraine but would love to see all of them. 

 Number of Countries Participating this year: 20

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: All 24

Who’s Missing?:        RUSSIA continues to boycott the Oscars due to their own invasion of a peaceful neighboring country…..But Russia is represented by a documentary from Denmark which we’ll take a look at in a later entry.

KOSOVO announced a call for submissions after controversially failing to do so last year; they received one entry (they didn’t name the film) but decided not to send it, leaving them absent for the third year in a row. Local filmmakers, including Isa Qojsa who directed their first-ever submission, criticized the selection committee and noted the important of Kosovo being represented, even if they had no chance at a nomination. I agree.

Also absent: the tiny film industries of BELARUS and MOLDOVA, which last nominated films in 2020 and 2023 respectively.

FRONTRUNNERS:

 

1.    UKRAINE- “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Letterboxd: 4.2)

2.   SLOVENIA- “Little Trouble Girls” (3.6)

So, even though Eastern Europe sent a big group of films, I don’t think they’ll get more than one or two spots on the shortlist.  The most likely is documentary “2000 Meters to Andriivka”, which won Best International Documentary at Sundance (just as “20 Days in Mariupol” did in 2023). Sympathy is still sky high for the brave soldiers in Ukraine, and “Andriivka” is in some ways a more daring effort, trading a city under siege for a platoon travelling across enemy territory. And although I probably won’t be able to see it until its December 1^st streaming date, it’s also supposed to be very, very good.

Slovenia’s sexually charged choir drama “Little Trouble Girls” could be Slovenia’s best-ever chance at the shortlist. While I don’t actually think it will make it, it recently made the shortlist for the British Independent Film Awards, got a U.S. distributor via Kino Lorber and an online release in the UK. Sadly, these distribution tallies count more than the quality of the film. “Little Trouble Girls”, about two high-school girls and their choirmaster, just got a 5-star review from The Guardian and is gunning for one of the last spots on the shortlist. I couldn’t get a screener so I don’t know how “Oscary” it is.

DARK HORSES:

 

These two countries are praying for a miracle.

3.   MACEDONIA- “Tale of Silyan” (3.6)

4.   POLAND- “Franz” (3.2)

Does anyone think Agnieszka’s biopic of Franz Kafka deserves to make the Oscar shortlist. Hell, no. Reviews have been tepid and the film mostly called “a mess”. But Holland is a talented director that Oscar likes, she knows how to campaign and “Charlatan” wasn’t that good either. So, “Franz” is hoping for that “Bardo” slot (I liked “Bardo”! But it wasn’t a Top 15 film, and it was also a mess).  As for “Tale of Silyan”, a Macedonian documentary about a man, a stork and local folklore, I’m ranking it high for three reasons- (1)- it won a small award at Venice, (2)- it got a National Geographic distributor, and (3)- the same director got a surprise Oscar nomination for “Honeyland”. But while “Silyan” is supposed to be very good, it’s also supposed to be a bit slow so I expect it won’t quite make the cut

UNLIKELY BUT WILL PLACE WELL:

  

5.   CROATIA- “Fiume o Morte!” (4.0)

6.   SLOVAKIA- “Father” (3.5)

7.   MONTENEGRO- “The Tower of Strength” 

8.   CZECH REPUBLIC- “I’m Not Everything I Want To Be” (4.1)

I already discussed these four films above. My favorite, MONTENEGRO, is too small with zero buzz….and not everyone seems to love the film as much as I do. CZECH REPUBLIC is a critical darling but it’s a tough watch and I’m not sure it will do well with mainstream voters (I simply could not get into it….). CROATIA, another historical documentary, is probably too odd…but it will probably place well. The same goes for the family drama from SLOVAKIA...I expect it will do well, but not make the Top 15.  

MIDDLE OF THE PACK: 

9.   GEORGIA- “Panopticon” (3.4)

10.   ROMANIA- “Traffic” (3.4)

11.   AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev: Oil” (3.6)

12.   HUNGARY- “Orphan” (3.1)

Not much to say about this group....”Panopticon” from GEORGIA is one of my favorites but it’s a small low-budget drama that nobody is talking about. HUNGARY's "Orphan" comes from the Oscar-winning director of "Son of Saul" and it's a baity period drama about a boy looking for his absent father. But reviews have been poor and it's got some of the worst numbers from critics sites. I live in AZERBAIJAN and historical drama "Taghiyev: Oil", an expensive biopic and first film in a trilogy about one of the country's most beloved philanthropists, has gotten excellent reviews. It's also produced by the daughter of the President. But it's probably a story that's of greater interest to those who know Taghiyev's story. And finally, we have migration drama "Traffic", produced by Cristian Mungiu, about a group of exploited Romanian workers living in the Netherlands. It should finish in the middle of the pack. 

  

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

13.   LATVIA- “Dog of God” (3.2)

14.   ALBANIA- “Luna Park”

15.   BULGARIA- “Tarika” (3.2)

16.   ESTONIA- “Rolling Papers” (3.7)

From LATVIA, we have nightmarish animated film “Dog of God” which is a lot of fun….but will likely freak out most voters while neighboring ESTONIA’s philosophical slacker movie just doesn’t seem like the kind of movie honored her. BULGARIA’s “Tarika” is interesting but probably too small and too slow to get many votes.

I haven’t seen “Luna Park” from ALBANIA, a well-reviewed coming-of-age drama about a mother and son living through economic turmoil in 1997 when a series of pyramid schemes collapsed. It looks very good…but it’s one of the most obscure entries on the list and has the fewest votes of any country in this group on Letterboxd (2^nd to last on IMDB). Even if it gets high scores, it likely won’t be able to make an impact.

BOTTOM TIER

 

17.   BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Blum: Masters of Their Own Destiny”

18.   LITHUANIA- “Southern Chronicles” (4.1)

19.   ARMENIA- “My Armenian Phantoms”

20.   SERBIA- “Sun Never Again”

I’ve already discussed these four also-rans. I enjoyed seeing all four (well….maybe not Lithuania) but they aren’t good enough to compete here. ARMENIA is a lovely documentary but requires a strong interest in the subject matter (Armenian/Soviet cinema) and while BOSNIA is well-done, it’s really just a well-researched bunch of talking heads talking about an admittedly great man. LITHUANIA is clearly intended for a local audience and didn’t seem like a “good” film to me, while SERBIA is slight and forgettable.

FUN FACTS:

Genres:       We have five documentaries (that’s 25%!), two comedy-dramas (Estonia and Lithuania) plus one bizarre horror-animation film (Latvia). The other 12 are straight dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: I’ve seen twelve of the twenty films (See above)

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Definitely Ukraine’s “3000 Meters to Andriivka”, mostly because it’s the favorite.

Number I Predicted Correctly: 7/20- Albania, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine.

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin-        Armenia (Forum), Czech Republic (Panorama), Slovenia (14+)

·        Cannes-     N/A

·        Sundance-  Ukraine (World Documentaries)

·        Venice-       Hungary, Macedonia, Slovakia

“Orphan” was the only film to play in the Main Competition of a major festival.

Women Directors- 8/20….That’s 40%! A possible record- Urska Djukic (Slovenia), Agnieszka Holland (Poland), Tamara Kotevska (Macedonia), Teodora Ana Mihai (Romania), Tereza Nvotova (Slovakia), Tamara Stepanyan (Armenia), Klara Tasovska (Czech Rep.) and Jasmila Zbanic (Bosnia)

 

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Worldwide, 76- year old Agnieszka Holland (Poland) is the oldest director competing this year and 27-year old Meel Paliale (Estonia) is the youngest.

Languages – We have two films in Albanian (Albania, Montenegro) and two in Serbo-Croatian (Bosnia and Serbia), plus one each in Armenian, Azerbaijani, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Georgian, German (Poland), Hungarian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Macedonian, Romanian, Slovak, Slovene and Ukrainian….. and a dialect of Italian (Croatia). The Bosnian film is fairly multi-lingual (Bosnian + German and English). 

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?-  Hmmm….Not many… Maybe four?

Most Likely to Get Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Nominated? Ukraine. Shortlisted? Slovakia….But neither one is especially likely to happen.

Buzziest Films: Probably Franz Kafka biopic “Franz”….but that’s mostly because of Holland’s name.

Letterboxd Ratings (as of November 1, 2025):      Best: Ukraine (4.3)….Worst: Montenegro (approximately 2.8), which seems absolutely impossible (and unfair!) since it’s probably the best film I’ve seen on the list so far.

Dumbest Decision:  Hmmm….I think some of these countries made mistakes though I’m not sure anyone made a “dumb” decision. Macedonia certainly had a tough pick between critical darling “DJ Ahmed” and documentary “Tale of Silyan” and I think “DJ” would have had a better chance of getting nominated….but Tamara Kotevska has gotten to the shortlist before. And I loved "Pavilion" but it's hard to call BOSNIA "dumb" for picking a solid (though ordinary) documentary from a former Oscar nominee. So I'm voting for LITHUANIA for picking a commercial hit over Locarno winner "Toxic". 

Controversies and Changes:  The Czech Republic had a controversy when the Czech Academy sent voters a three-film shortlist with a “recommendation” to select “Broken Voices”, since they said it had the best chance with American Oscar voters. One of the rival films – “Caravan” - said it was ridiculous to “recommend” a film to voters, that it showed favoritism and that the process should be restarted. In the end, Czech voters selected the third film on the list – documentary “I’m Not Everything I Want To Be”- possibly due to backlash.

In Serbia, the selection system is reportedly considered so corrupt that just two obscure films were submitted. Ironically, that led to the first arthouse film being selected in years. Here’s a good article in Serbia here: https://www.danas.rs/kultura/dimitri...dat-za-oskara/

Oscar History: Lots of big names here. Five directors have already made it to the nomination stage.

László Nemes (Hungary) and Mstyslav Chernov (Ukraine) already won Oscars, for Best International Feature (“Son of Saul”) and Best Documentary Feature (“20 Days in Mariupol”) respectively. Agnieszka Holland (Poland) has three nominees under her belt (Best Screenplay for “Europa Europa”, and Best International Feature for “Angry Harvest” and “In Darkness”). Jasmila Žbanić (“Quo Vadis, Aida?”) and Tamara Kotevska (“Honeyland”) have one Oscar nomination apiece.

Agnieszka Holland is in the International Oscar race for the fifth time – three times for Poland and once each for West Germany and the Czech Republic. Jasmila Žbanić is representing Bosnia and László Nemes is representing Hungary for the third time. Here for the second time: Mstyslav Chernov (Ukraine; “20 Days in Mariupol”), Milko Lazarov (Bulgaria; “Aga”), Tamara Kotevska (Macedonia; “Honeyland”), Florenc Papas (Albania, “Open Door”) and Nikola Vukčević (Montenegro; “The Kids From Marx & Engels Street”).

Of the 20 eligible countries, four have won the Oscar (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), five others have been nominated (Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Macedonia and Romania), and four shortlisted (Armenia, Bulgaria, Serbia and Ukraine). The other seven are waiting for their first trip to the second round, the most surprising of which is Slovakia.

Most Notable Omissions: 

  

The most notable omission this year is Sundance Film Festival Audience Award winner “DJ Ahmet”, a feel-good movie that many were saying was a dark horse for an Oscar nomination. The other two major absences are Locarno Golden Leopard winner “Toxic” (Lithuania) and Radu Jude’s Berlin Best Screenplay winner “Kontinental 25” (Romania).

Also out: “Broken Voices” (Czech Republic), “Frka” (Croatia), “Grey Bees” (Ukraine), ““Growing Down” (Hungary), “Pavilion” (Bosnia-Herzegovina) and “Windless” (Bulgaria)

Most Famous Face: Hmmm….No huge international stars in this group (especially because 25% of these films are documentaries) but Ivan Trojan (Czech Republic), Milan Ondrík (Slovakia) and Nik Xhelilaj (Albania) will likely be familiar to those who follow this category year after year.

Last Year’s Race: I saw 16/18 films last year and the Eastern European group was pretty great. Three films-  “Flow” (A-), “Three Kilometers to the End of the World” (A) and “Waterdrop” (A-) would have made my shortlist….and maybe “Yasha and Leonid Brezhnev” (B+) would have too. Also good: “Drowning Dry” (B+)….”The Antique”, “Family Therapy”, “My Late Summer”, “Semmelweis” and “Waves” (B). Also seen “Hungarian Dressmaker” and “Under the Volcano” (B-),  “Supermarket” (C+), “Triumph” (C), “8 Views of Lake Biwa” (D) and “La Palisiada” (F). I failed to see the films from Croatia (“Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day”, which I really wanted to see) and Serbia (“Russian Consul”, which I didn’t). 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- WESTERN EUROPE PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And finally, here are the countries of Western Europe. These countries dominate this category. In the past four years, they got seven (2022), eight (2023, 2024) or nine (2021) of the 15 spots on the shortlist, and three (2021, 2022, 2024) or four (2023) of the five nominations. Of the 17 "established" countries in Western Europe, 12 managed to get shortlisted at least twice in the past four years including relatively tiny Iceland and Ireland. Only three- Greece, Netherlands and Portugal - have failed to advance in the past ten years. Denmark has been on the list five years in a row. 

Does Western Europe make the best films? No, not usually. But they do have lobbying power and connections that most films from developing countries don't have, and they (mostly) have a good understanding of the films that AMPAS will like, and don't submit....well...."Laapataa Ladies".

Last year, I  saw all 18 submissions (except the one from Spain) and they really did send the best films .....I loved "Touch", "Kneecap" and "Memory Lane" and was sorry to see them fail to be nominated (two were shortlisted). The worst film  -as usual- was the messy travelogue from Portugal.

I predicted 8 out of 18 correctly....although part of that was due to help with shortlists (which I only used this year for Germany). 

Here are my predictions for Western Europe, where we could theoretically see a Faroe Islands debut.

  AUSTRIA- “The Village Next to Paradise” UPDATE: Austria selected "Peacock"....but I wrote this before they decided......So, let’s look at this mathematically. Nine of the past ten Austrian submissions premiered at Class-A festivals (three in Cannes, three in Venice, two in Berlin and one at Locarno). And six of the past ten winners of Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards went to the Oscars. So, the frontrunner is clearly Somali-language family drama “The Village Next to Paradise” which competed at Cannes Un Certain Regard in 2024 and won Best Picture at the Austrian Film Awards in 2025. Austria usually has no hang-ups about a “foreign film” representing them at the Oscars so I think this is the one. But I count six other Austrian majority films that premiered at major festivals this year (“How to Be Normal and the Oddness of the Other World”, “Moon”, “Mother’s Baby”, “Peacock”, “White Snail” and “The Witness”). Of these, feminist Persian thriller “The Witness” (co-written by Jafar Panahi) is the most likely challenger to "The Village"….though comedy “Peacock” is the most likely option actually made in Austria. Austria likes horror but “Mother’s Baby” (starring Claes Bang) is set to premiere in October and “White Snail” has no release date. For me, it really looks like "Village” will get this.  

  BELGIUM- “Young Mother’s Home” (Jeunes mères) Belgium is reportedly trying a new format this year. The Flemish (Dutch-speaking) and Walloon (French-speaking) film bodies will each choose two films made by their filmmakers (which doesn’t necessarily mean they are in that language…In 2019, they picked a Spanish-language film from the “French side”) and then a joint selection committee will choose from among those four finalists. The Belgian Academy loves Cannes. They’ve picked Cannes premieres seven of the past ten years and all three of their recent shortlisted films (“Brand New Testament”, “Playground” and “Close”) were Cannes premieres. The Brothers Dardenne have been picked four times – more than any other Belgian directors – and after winning Best Screenplay and the Ecumenical Jury Prize at Cannes 2025 for “Young Mothers’s Home”, this year will probably make it five. I hated “Le fils” and “L’enfant” but I absolutely loved “Deux jours, une nuit”….So I’m on the fence about this French-language drama about a home for unwed teenaged mothers. From the Flemish side, the main contender is critically acclaimed LGBT coming-of-age drama “Young Hearts” (Berlinale 2024) which could challenge the Dardennes who’ve had so many chances in this category (in addition to the three they directed, at least four films they co-produced have been submitted) with zero success. “Young Hearts” is very good and already has an Amazon deal. There’s a lot of competition for that second “French” spot on the Belgian shortlist. It could easily be any one of three other Cannes debuts: “Wild Foxes” (Director’s Fortnight), a teen boxing drama, “Adam’s Sake” (Critics Week), about a mother trying to keep custody of her child (director Laura Wandel got a surprise shortlist spot for “Playground”) and “Kika” (Critics Week), a quirky dramedy about a pregnant woman dealing with the death of her life partner. I think “Adam’s Sake” will get it, though I’m hoping for “Kika”. As for the second Flemish spot?  They don’t have much so I’ll predict the upcoming lesbian drama “Julian”, set to debut in Toronto.

 CYPRUS- “Smaragda – I Got Thick Skin and I Can’t Jump” Cyprus is the only EU country that has never entered the Oscars and every year I expect we'll see them debut. Apparently, it has been discussed with the Ministry of Culture but the Ministry has never formed a committee. This year, Cyprus premiered a quirky Greek-language comedy-drama about an aging Cypriot woman seeking meaning in the second half of her life. Submitting "Smaragda" to the Oscars would be a great way to get Cypriot cinema seen on the larger world stage. 

  DENMARK- “The Last Viking” Since 2010, Denmark (pop: 6 million) has made the Oscar shortlist 12 out of 15 times….more than any other country, including much larger competitors like Germany (10), France (7), Poland (5), Italy and Spain (4 each)….(and a 13^th film, “Queen of Hearts”, probably came VERY close). Denmark not only makes great films; they also understand Oscar voters and they want to be nominated each and every year. This year, Denmark has had a weak year by their high standards (though still better than most countries). Each year, they announce a three-film shortlist and this year I predicted that would be drama "Home Sweet Home" (Berlin Panorama), comedy "The Last Viking" (Toronto), and thriller "Second Victims", with LGBT drama "Sauna" (Sundance) as my alternate. Last year, in the hunt for that Oscar, they gave a qualifying release to “The Girl with the Needle” to make sure they made the Final Five…and they did (they didn’t deserve it, but they did). So, I correctly predicted they would do a qualifying release for Mads Mikkelsen’s new comedy-drama “The Last Viking” (apparently in Finland! which under the new rules is fine....) , which is clearly trying to channel the energy of “Another Round". "Last Viking" did make the Danish shortlist announced on August 21 but I got the other two wrong. Instead Denmark selected Russian-language documentary "Mr. Nobody Against Putin", which was filmed in secret over the course of two years, and "Beginnings" (Berlin), a drama about divorce starring Trine Dyrholm. "Beginnings" also got a qualifying release (this time in Spain)....and those make things so much more difficult to predict. I think it was probably including to have a female director on the shortlist. While "Putin" has some pretty great reviews, "The Last Viking" is the clear favorite and with “Home Sweet Home” already out of the running, "Viking" is my prediction. Director Anders Thomas Jensen already has three Oscar nominations (including one win) in the Short Film Oscar category and he also wrote the Oscar-winning “In a Better World”. The film is about a bank robber released from prison and his mentally ill brother (Mikkelsen) desperately searching for a hidden stash of money. 

  FAROE ISLANDS- "The Last Paradise on Earth" Before someone tells me that the "Faroe Islands" isn't a country, please note that it has the same political status as Greenland which was recognized by AMPAS in 2010, and it has its own language, flag, sports teams and money. The islands have also started making TV shows ("Trom" was exported overseas) and films. However, it's true that the Faroese are often required to represent Denmark. Faroese athletes compete for Denmark in the Olympics and most World Championships (they won a bronze medal for Denmark in the Swimming World Championships), Denmark has sent Faroese singers to represent Denmark at Eurovision two of the past three years (!), and Denmark sent a movie about the Faroe Islands to the Oscars in 1997. But this year, the Nordic Council Film Prize allowed the Faroe Islands to compete as an independent country with the film "The Last Paradise on Earth" and I suspect they may use this to try and get themselves into the Oscars. The Nordic Council Film Prize was traditionally open to the five independent Nordic nations (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) but opened up to Greenland in 2023 and the Faroe Islands in 2025. "The Last Paradise on Earth" won't win an Oscar but it would be an excellent debut submission from the wind-swept islands with someone of the most beautiful landscapes on Earth. It's about young people on the islands facing the age-old question of whether to stay at home in a small town or seek out new opportunities in a globalized world.  

  FINLAND- “Never Alone” Klaus Härö has been picked to represent Finland four times and is one of only three Finnish directors EVER to make it to the Oscar shortlist. His new movie is a period drama about Finnish Jews during the Holocaust which practically screams "OSCAR". So that seems likely to be their submission in a relatively weak year. I’d much prefer they send “100 Liters of Gold” (Tallinn Black Nights), a very well-reviewed local comedy about two middle-aged sisters in the countryside trying to save a rural wedding with the world's worst hangovers….but I am worried it won’t be able to beat Härö. Fingers crossed for the hangover sisters! This would be such a fun choice! Millennial dramedy “Apple Thieves”, rural island melodrama “Orenda” (by a twice-selected director) and edgy comedy-drama “A Light That Never Goes Out” (Cannes ACID) round out the Top Five, but likely won’t come into play.

  FRANCE- "Souleymane's Story" (L'histoire de Souleymane) Poor France. Though they arguably have Europe's strongest cinema, they haven't won the Oscar since "Indochine" over thirty years ago. I think that's shocking...and France does too. Last year, they picked the Spanish-language "Emilia Perez" because they were sure it would be their chance to win. I actually liked the batshit crazy "Emilia Perez" more than "I'm Still Here"....but I thought "I'm Still Here" was a better film and it's the film I would have voted for. France is scheduled to announce its shortlist soon and I would say that the race for France is wide-open. I keep hearing people mention six films as possibilities - "Alpha", "Case 137", "It Was Just An Accident", "Nouvelle Vague", "A Private Life" and "The Stranger". 

Let's start with the two highest-profile films-  Jafar Panahi's Cannes Palme d'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" and Richard Linklater's "Nouvelle Vague" (Cannes & Netflix). First, there is a major question mark about whether the two Cannes films are eligible since their directors are not French and do not reside in France. "Nouvelle Vague", about the youth of avant-garde filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard, appears to absolutely be a majority French production. Contrary to what I've seen some people saying online, yes, films with U.S. directors may be eligible. For example, "How to Win At Checkers" was accepted to represent Thailand in 2015 even though it was directed by U.S. director Josh Kim. "It Was Just An Accident" is a wholly Iranian film...but the main production company, the producers, and some of the post-production crew are French. AMPAS often shows sympathy for films that could not be sent by their home country for political reasons. It's not REALLY eligible but I think they would allow it. I think AMPAS would accept both. Will France send them? No, I don't think so. "Emilia Perez" may have taken place in Mexico and been filmed in Spanish but Jacques Audiard is a beloved French director. Deniz Gamze Ergüven ("Mustang") was also raised in France. Even if "Nouvelle Vague" and "Accident" are eligible, I don't think France wants to end their 30-year Oscar drought with a film by a foreign filmmaker. The optics are bad. 

What about the others? Julia DuCourneau's "Alpha" has poisonous reviews and DuCourneau didn't get an Oscar nomination for the buzzier "Titane".....I'm not sure how it's still in the conversation. And "Case 137", a thriller about police brutality, looks good but doesn't have the kind of reviews that will convince France it has a chance at an Oscar. 

"A Private Life" (Vie Privée) stars Jodie Foster, Daniel Auteuil and Mathieu Amalric, and looks like "Anatomy of a Fall". It's about a psychiatrist who believes her former patient has been murdered. Reviews also don't look good enough for a win, but the starpower alone will certainly make this a strong possibility. Ditto Francois Ozon's "The Stranger", based on a classic French novel. Those who supported "Count of Monte Cristo" last year could fight for the idea of trying a French classic. Both of these would require qualifying releases...but France has done those before without an issue. 

But I'm going out on a limb and predicting France sends "Souleymane's Story", a drama starring non-professional actors about 48 hours in the life of a Guinean asylum seeker in Paris. It premiered at Cannes 2024 (festival play...check)....has rapturous reviews (4.1 on Letterboxd vice 3.2 for "Private Life" and "Alpha", 3.5 for "Case 136", and 3.7 for "Nouvelle Vague) and has gotten a U.S. release. France almost always goes for a BIG film....but that hasn't worked. Maybe they should just go with a good one. I think it will be the surprise pick. 

The French shortlist consists of between 3-5 films....if it's three, except "Vie Privee" and "The Stranger" to join "Souleymane". If it's four, then add "It Was Just An Accident", and if it's five, lesbian drama "La petite derniere" (The Little Sister). Alternates: "Case 137", "A Magnificent Life" and "Nouvelle Vague".  

 GERMANY- “The Tiger" UPDATE: Germany picked "Sound of Falling", so I got this one wrong. I wrote this prior to Germany's announcement. Each year German Films announces a “shortlist” of finalists to represent Germany at the Oscars….but it isn’t a list of films that Germany judged to be “the best of the year”. It’s actually a list of films whose producers have submitted themselves for consideration. This year there were only five films submitted…that’s the smallest number since Germany began announcing its list in 2010. Last year there were 13 and the year before there were 12. Four of the five deal with WWII (ugh…not again...).  The finalists are (1)- “Amrum” (Cannes), a coming-of-age drama directed by Fatih Akin and starring Diane Kruger, about a boy growing up on a remote German island in the final days of WWII, (2)- “John Cranko”, a biopic about a gay choreographer that competed at last year’s national Lola Awards, but failed to get nominated in any of the Big Three categories, (3)- “Riefenstahl” (Venice 2024), a documentary about the famous Nazi filmmaker, (4)- “Sound of Falling” (Cannes), a time-jumping drama about several generations of women living on the same remote farm and (5)- “Der Tiger”, an “anti-war” war movie set in 1943 that has the backing of Amazon Prime and will available for streaming after an Oscar qualifying run in Germany.  Classy “Sound of Falling” is considered the favorite….but the backing of Amazon and Germany’s recent win for “All Quiet on the Western Front” makes me think that “Der Tiger” – made by a well-known commercial director trying to make an artistic film for the first time- will be picked instead. “Sound of Falling” will come a very, very, very close second, with “Amrum” a distant third, “Riefenstahl” in fourth and “John Cranko” way behind. 

  GREECE- “Arcadia” Greece had an internal controversy last year when their Film Academy and their Ministry of Culture had a public spat over who gets to select the Greek submission. Officially, it’s the Ministry.....and when the Ministry changed the members of its selection committee midway through the selection process all except one of the Greek contenders withdrew in protest . The eventual Greek nominee, “Murderess”, was the film that was expected to be picked all along but the Ministry made the process look corrupt….Hopefully Greece has gotten their act together but it’s possible we could see another partial boycott. The favorite this year is “Arcadia”, a surreal Lanthimos-esque mystery that AMPAS will probably hate. It won the three top awards at the Greek Oscars after its Berlin premiere and won the FIPRESCI Prize at Thessaloniki. So, apparently the Greeks really like it. The two other leading contenders are box-office hit music biopic “Stelios” and adoption drama “Kyuka”, about adopted twins who unexpectedly meet their birth mother  while on a vacation. Greece sent the winner of the Hellenic Film Awards to the Oscars 2021-2023 and the 2024 winner, “Animal” boycotted the process. So, 2025 winner “Arcadia” is the favorite....but a big part of me thinks it could still go to “Stelios” which just got a U.S. distribution deal.

  GREENLAND- “Walls” Greenland (pop: 55,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012 but they started sending films for the Nordic Council Prize in 2023. With such a small population, it was likely difficult for them to meet the 7-day screening requirements until the rule change that they can qualify via screenings in another country (e.g. Denmark). If they return this year, it’s likely to be “Walls” (Akinni Inuk), a documentary about a Greenlandic woman in prison, which is their candidate for the 2025 Nordic Council Prize. “The Incredible Snow Woman” (Berlinale Panorama) was made in Greenland but it’s a wholly French production with a French director and crew so it won’t be eligible.

  ICELAND- “The Love That Remains” Iceland has an easy decision this year as Hlynur Palmason’s “The Love That Remains” (Cannes) has gotten great reviews. I don’t like Hlynur Palmason’s films but he made the shortlist for “Godland” two years ago so obviously there are many who disagree. Tiny Iceland has made the shortlist three of the past five years, one of the best records in the Nordics.....- Denmark managed all five, Iceland and Norway: 3, Finland: 2, Sweden: 1 -  and deserved to win last year for the wonderfully moving “Touch”. “The Love That Remains” is about a year in the life of a family going through a separation. It shouldn’t have any problem beating the other main contender, “Aftergames”.

  IRELAND- “Blue Fiddle”. UPDATE: Ireland picked a documentary I'd never heard of - "Sanitorium" - which is in Ukrainian. It may be a very good film but it's a shame because this was probably the most prolific year for Irish-language cinema. This was written before Ireland's announcement. Ireland has sent seven Irish-language films to the Oscars (out of 11 total), and two made the shortlist twice, including the Oscar-nominated “The Quiet Girl”. It used to be that Ireland would only make an Irish-language feature every couple of years. That has completely changed and there are half a dozen Irish-language features on the film festival circuit this year, including two folk horror films (“Frewaka” and “The Ghost”), a village murder mystery (“Bait”), an all-female heist thriller (“Aontas”), a family drama (“Blue Fiddle”) plus wacky comedy “Froggie”. Congratulations to Irish cinema! Of these, “Blue Fiddle”, an old-fashioned tearjerker about a young girl who believes that she can cure her comatose father with her music, seems most likely. After all, they got to the shortlist with the edgy, awesome “Kneecap” but they got to the Oscars with the more sentimental “Quiet Girl”. I saw the creepy “Frewaka”, about a caregiver living with an old woman in a haunted house, and it just got an Amazon/Shudder release. That helps get a film seen so that may be the one. And “Aontas”, a heist thriller about three women robbers….but told backwards.....premiered at the Galway Film Festival last month.

 

  ITALY- "La grazia" ???? TBD I'm going to have wait on Italy until after Venice.....

  LUXEMBOURG- “Breathing Underwater” (Hors d'haleine) Last year, Luxembourg announced they didn’t have any eligible films. They’ll almost certainly be back this year, probably with domestic violence drama “Breathing Underwater”. The film, about a pregnant woman with a seemingly perfect life who ends up in a shelter for battered women, looks like quite a good choice and is largely in the country’s national language. German-language road movie “Mariana’s Trench”, about an old man and a suicidal young hitchhiker and Luxembourgish-language documentary “Terre Rouge” are also possible. Some people think Luxembourg should try to send “It Was Just An Accident”, Jafar Panahi’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning film that was co-produced by a Luxembourgian production company….This worked for “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “Tel Aviv on Fire”…but I don’t think “It Was Just An Accident” has enough Luxembourg-based crew....just a couple of producers.

  MALTA- “Ciao Ciao” Tiny Malta tries to send a film to the Oscars any time they have something good to send. This year that will surely be “Ciao Ciao”, about four friends who get together for a dinner reunion where secrets are revealed and chaos ensues. Sounds like “Cuarencena” (the 2023 Dominican submission) and it’s one of the films on this page that I most want to find this year.

  NETHERLANDS- “Our Girls” Last year, the Netherlands sent a lovely, funny, heartbreaking film called "Memory Lane”. It deserved to make the shortlist….but it had no buzz and probably wasn’t seen by any voters that were not assigned to see it. Sad. From 1986-2003, the Netherlands was an Oscar superpower…earning five nominations, including two wins. But they haven’t been nominated since then. The Netherlands usually sends a late release and I’m strangely confident they will send “Our Girls" which has been announced as the opening film of the Netherlands Film Festival in September. Director Mike van Diem won the Foreign Film Oscar for “Character” way, way back in 1998. In the past 27 years, he’s made only two more movies…but this year he will premiere #3 - “Our Girls”, a baity drama about two families who are also best friends. When their two daughters are in a terrible accident, doctors tell them that only one girl can be saved. I was pretty sure this would be their submission even before I saw their eight-film shortlist, and that the runner-ups would be B+W comedy-drama "Three Days of Fish" (Karlovy Vary) and West Papua documentary "The Promise". "Fish" is on the shortlist..."Promise" isn't. 

Here are the eight eligible films: 

Top Tier:    Our Girls (#1), Three Days of Fish (#2)

Second Tier: father-son drama Alpha (#3), documentary The Propagandist (#4)

Third Tier: youth tearjerker "Live for Me" (#6), Cannes murder mystery "Reedland" (#5)

Bottom Tier: action-comedy "Fabula" (#7), anti-capitalist documentary "The System" (#8)

 

  NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” Norway has two of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year and will have a very difficult decision to make. “Dreams (Sex Love)” is the final (and reportedly best) in a well-regarded trilogy about….well….dreams, sex and love, and it won the Golden Bear at Berlin. “Sentimental Value”, starring Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård, is a comedy-drama about family and art that won the Grand Prix (2^nd place) at Cannes. Both of these would be surefire Oscar nominees this year and Norway is surely cursing the “one-film-per-country” rule. I think it will be “Sentimental Value” which seems to be more accessible and have slightly better reviews, with a cast of recognizable international stars that Oscar voters like, and a premise that seems to match previous Norwegian nominees like “Worst Person in the World” (which has the same director and star). But its director Joachim Trier has been picked twice in the past eight years while Dag Johan Haugerud has been shortlisted but never selected three times since 2012. The egalitarian Norwegians may want to honor his work. I predicted both would make Norway's three-film shortlist.....and of course they did. But Norway had an amazing film year and there was fierce competition for that third spot. I assumed that honor would go either to atmospheric fairy tale “The Ugly Stepsister” (Sundance) which is already available in the U.S., or “Loveable”, a drama about divorce that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024....or perhaps Oscar nominee Petter Naess ("Elling")'s new comedy “Ingen Kommentar”. In the end, Norway chose political documentary "Facing War", which was a bit of an odd choice. But this is very clearly a battle between Cannes and Berlin. 

  

  PORTUGAL- “I Only Rest in the Storm”  Dreaming of Lions Since 2019, Portugal has announced a shortlist of four to six films before announcing their Oscar candidate. This year, I predicted their shortlist would include "Banzo", "Dreaming of Lions" and "Hanami" (I got them right!) plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" and "The Seasons" (I got them wrong....but it looks like they will both be eligible next year), with "The Luminous Life" as my alternate. I expected "I Only Rest in the Storm" would be the Portuguese candidate. 

Portugal replaced the two I got wrong with two dramas that weren't on my radar- "The Englishman's Papers" and "Sobrevivientes", whose director just passed away. The Portuguese shortlist is very heavily focused on Portugal's colonial legacy in Africa and three take place in former Portuguese colonies - "Banzo" in Sao Tome & Principe, "Englishman's Papers" in Angola, and "Hanami" in Cabo Verde (plus "I Only Rest in the Storm" took place in Guinea-Bissau). 

For several years, Portugal has held the record for the most Oscar submissions without ever being shortlisted or nominated….and that probably won’t change this year. The Portuguese Academy usually likes their films darkly lit with dramatic voiceovers and without any sense of humor, and that doesn't play well with AMPAS. ("Alma Viva" was an exception.....charming!) But I would lovely to see them choose “Dreaming of Lions”, a dark comedy about euthanasia, not only because it has the best reviews but because it's a comedy. It's also the only one of the five films that actually takes place in Portugal. In the end, it's a tight race and I think any of these five could be selected except "Englishman's Papers". 

Let's be optimistic. I'm predicting "Dreaming of Lions" (Tallinn Black Nights) because of its strong reviews, with dreamy Cabo Verdean coming-of-age drama "Hanami" (Locarno) in second place (it was also shortlisted by Switzerland), and "Banzo" (Karlovy Vary), set amidst an epidemic on a Portuguese colonial plantation, a very close third. "Sobrevivientes", a survival drama about race relations after a shipwreck, could get a sentimental vote to honor its late director.  

  SPAIN- “The Captive” (El cautivo) Spain has had a very good year and it's going to be extremely competitive just to make Spain’s three-film shortlist. The Spanish Academy – more than any of the other big countries – has a few favorite directors. In the past ten years, three directors (Pedro Almodovar, Carla Simon and the duo of Jon Garano & Jose Maria Goenaga) have all been picked twice (so…six of out of ten )….and Almodovar & Garano/Goenaga were also on the Spanish shortlist for other films during that 10-year time period. Two of the other four (Fernando Leon de Aranoa & Juan Antonio Bayona) were picked by Spain in the past. 

This year, Simon (“Romeria”) and Garano/Goenaga (“Maspalomas”) are back in the race as is Oscar winner Alejandro Amenabar (“The Captive”). We also have the two most critically acclaimed Spanish films of the year from festivals – “Deaf” (Berlin) and “Sirat” (Cannes), plus one of last year’s two Best Picture winners at the Goya Awards (“Undercover”)….there was a tie. There has been an unofficial list floating around online of the 23 registered films and all except "Undercover" are on it. Spain has plenty of other films, but these appear to be the five frontrunners. From this unofficial list, terrorism drama "She Walks in Darkness" and bullfighting docudrama "Afternoons of Solitude" could sneak onto the list. 

So, who will it be? Carla Simon & Garano/Goenaga both failed to get Spain to the shortlist all four times (the other previously submitted directors all at least got to the shortlist). I hate Carla Simon’s films so this is not surprising...and although the LGBT dramedy "Maspalomas" looks fantastic, it has less buzz than all the others. So, I predict the shortlist will be Amenabar’s period costume drama “The Captive”, and the two festival favorites “Deaf” (Sorda) and “Sirat”. “The Captive” a 16^th century prison thriller, will premiere at San Sebastian and is only Amenabar’s second Spanish-language film in 20 years, since his Oscar win for “The Sea Inside”. (The other, “While At War”, was shortlisted by Spain but rightfully lost to Almodovar’s “Pain & Glory”). The uplifiting “Deaf”, about a deaf mother with a newborn, has beautiful reviews. “Sirat” won 3^rd place (Jury Prize) at Cannes for its weird, unconventional, drug-fueled mystery set at a desert rave. I’m hearing that “Sirat” is the favorite…but Spain’s habits will push them towards the more established Amenabar….especially since “The Captive” is probably a more “Oscar-friendly” choice. But all three of these are very, very possible. 

  SWEDEN- “Eagles of the Republic” Sweden made a huge mistake last year when they picked a cute little documentary (“Last Journey”) over Levan Akin’s masterpiece “Crossing”. Since 2019, Sweden has always announced a three-film shortlist and this year is pretty weak. Before their announcement, I predicted their shortlist would be Arabic-language political thriller  “Eagles of the Republic” (Cannes), and family dramas - “Kevlar Soul” and “Let Go” (Netflix), with road trip comedy “Live A Little” as my alternate prediction. Swedish-born Tarik Saleh got Sweden a surprise shortlist spot for “Boy From Heaven" (aka Cairo Conspiracy) and “Eagles” also played in competition at Cannes. It’s about a popular actor forced to star in a pro-government film by an unpopular military regime. Fares Fares stars in both. That was my final prediction. In the end, Sweden shortlisted "Eagles" but ignored the other two, replacing them with Middle East documentary "Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989" and romantic comedy "The Dance Club". "Eagles" is still the favorite...but "Dance Club" changed its release date to be eligible this year and was helmed by a respected female director who has never been picked before...and Sweden has only picked a film directed by a woman once in the past decade. If it's good, "Dance Club" could easily win this. But since nobody has seen it, I'm still predicting "Eagles". 

  SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift” Switzerland doesn’t have a clear pattern when they pick their Oscar candidates. They sometimes send films from major festivals (though they don’t have too many) but sometimes films that had just small local releases, including comedies and documentaries, and films made by dual nationals that have little to do with Switzerland (last year’s excellent submission was really from Peru). Before Switzerland announced their three-film shortlist in early August, I felt they had three really strong choices: "Frieda's Fall", "Late Shift" and "Sauvages", with "Late Shift" looking very much the strongest. I was shocked when "Frieda's Fall", a period drama about a mother accused of her killing her 5-year old child, and "Sauvages" (Cannes 2024), an animated film by the director of "My Life as a Zucchini", the last Swiss film to be shortlisted, didn't make the cut. So, it was quite obvious Switzerland would choose hospital thriller "Late Shift" (Berlin). Reviews are really good, it has a Netflix deal, and director Petra Volpe was picked for a lesser film in 2017. The other two films on the Swiss shortlist were Cape Verdean drama "Hanami" (also shortlisted for Portugal!) and "The Safe House" (La cache), a family comedy. They made the right choice. 

  UNITED KINGDOM- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” Last year, many people were predicting “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” to be a potential nominee for the UK after it won Best Director at Cannes Un Certain Regard. It finally got released in Britain in December 2024 making it eligible this year. This Zambian comedy-drama is a strong contender and will surely be selected. If there is a shock decision, they could consider “Exodus”, a political drama in Turkish, or “Tanau’r Lloer”, a family drama in Welsh. The UK has picked several films in these two languages before.