FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, I was waiting to write this until I found three hours in my schedule to go watch "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" at my local arthouse cinema....But I failed. Nevertheless, I've seen 11 of the 15 finalists, including all but one of the films "on the bubble" (Canada's "Universal Language"). So I feel pretty good about the ranking below. 

First off, I predicted 12 of the 15 finalists correctly....probably my best ever. But this is a hollow victory because the new Oscar rules now benefit the most-watched choices rather than the best. I missed "Santosh" (from the country with the second-largest number of AMPAS members) and "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" (a big word-of-mouth hit) but had them as alternates. I also predicted a snub for "Dahomey" because it's such a poor film...forgetting that that isn't important at all. 

Three films- Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here and Seed of the Sacred Fig are widely seen as locks. It would be a huge shock if any of them missed on nomination morning. But those last two spots could honestly go to eight other films. I'm hoping that the two best- Touch and Kneecap- get those spots....But it's almost certain one or both will miss. 

Here are my predictions:

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

1. BRAZIL, “I’m Still Here”

2. FRANCE, “Emilia Perez”

3. GERMANY, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

So, these three are the consensus favorites to make the next round so I don’t have too much to say. They’ve all been nominated at every major precursor (“Emilia Perez” missed at the Satellite Awards) and they’re being predicted by virtually everyone. A poll on Awardsdaily shows 94% support for all three. 

People who have seen all three films almost universally praise “I’m Still Here” as the Best Foreign Language Film of the year.....Cannes Jury Prize winner “Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a critical fave with a great backstory.....and “Emilia Perez” is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with the power of Netflix, a Golden Globe...and - perhaps most importantly- is a threat in a dozen other categories and is the clear favorite to win. If Fernanda Torres fails to get a Best Actress nomination, “Perez” will automatically be crowned the winner. 

Sadly, I’ve only been able to see “Emilia Perez”. I had so much fun watching it….but I’m shocked that it’s being nominated for so many awards. Gascon and Gomez are fine….but Oscar-worthy performances? Rather ridiculous. 

IN A STRONG POSITION:

4. IRELAND, “Kneecap”

5. ITALY, “Vermiglio”

6. ICELAND, “Touch”

The drug-fueled rapper comedy from Ireland - "Kneecap" - doesn't look like your usual Oscar nominee....But it has a number of advantages. First of all, it's one of the best films on the list, and it's a genuine crowdpleaser....though that didn't help "Les Intouchables" or "The Good Boss" make it beyond the shortlist. But it also got an early cinematic release in the USA, and has been buzzing ever since. Perhaps most importantly, it's hit most of the important precursors and exceeded expectations at the BAFTAs. It's probably in....unless voters don't have a sense of humor (which is possible). 

That leaves Italy's slow-moving village drama "Vermiglio" and Iceland's beautiful time-jumping romance "Touch" fighting (with three other films) for that final slot. "Touch", which tells the beautiful love story of a dying Icelandic man travelling the world amidst worsening COVID restrictions in an effort to meet his long-lost love. Co-star Masahiro Motoki helped Japan to a surprise Oscar nomination and even bigger surprise win for "Departures" and "Touch" will come close. But nobody seems to love the film quite as much as I do, so Italy has the clear advantage thanks to its European Film Award and Golden Globe nods. "Vermiglio" is a good film with some interesting twists and turns though it wouldn't be one of my Top 5. 

DARK HORSES:

7. DENMARK, “The Girl with the Needle”

8. LATVIA, “Flow”

9. THAILAND, “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies”

These three dark horses are in a virtually tie for sixth place. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of them announced on Oscar morning...and that would be a first for both Latvia and Thailand....so I'd be thrilled to see that happen. 

DENMARK is on the shortlist for the fifth year in a row (is that a record?) and "The Girl with the Needle" has been nominated almost everywhere alongside the three leaders. But after watching this weird Black and White horror-drama, I felt pretty sure this would miss an Oscar nomination. It just didn't seem good enough or "Oscary" enough to make it....but statistically, it should get that final slot. 

 LATVIA's "Flow" or, as the director called it, "our little cat movie", has been steadily moving up the rankings since its U.S. release. Initially, most people said it was a strong dark horse for the International Feature shortlist...but that it could never get nominated because voters would feel an Animated Feature nod would be sufficient to reward it.  That is still probably true....but voters and critics have been discovering and falling in love with "Flow" in big numbers since its domestic release in the USA, and especially since its Golden Globe win over "Wild Robot" in January. It could benefit from the one-week delay in Oscar voting....but will probably just miss out. 

THAILAND's heart-tugging soap opera "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" is about a slacker young man who moves in with his cancer-stricken grandmother in an effort to worm his way into her will. It's a sweet movie and I recommend you watch it. But Oscar has never gone for one of these sentimental Asian soap operas before. It's all very predictable....but it has some passionate fans and it would mean so much for Thai cinema....Unlikely but possible.   

PRAYING FOR A MIRACLE:

10. PALESTINE, “From Ground Zero”

11. CANADA, “Universal Language”

12. CZECH REPUBLIC, “Waves”

PALESTINE's stirring omnibus of 22 short films- "From Ground Zero"- is the only film that made the shortlist without the support of a sizeable international studio. Put together by senior Gazan filmmaker Rashid Masharawi from his current home base in Europe, "From Ground Zero" was somehow filmed by 22 amateur and independent Palestinian directors in Gaza in 2023 amidst bombings, electricity shortages and general violence and chaos. The films tell the stories (some fictional, some documentary-style) of ordinary people, of men and women and children and of Gaza itself. As such, much of the film is experimental and subject to filming conditions most directors could never dream of. One of the 22 films was left unfinished. While the film is unable to advance to the Top 5, it's appearance on the shortlist is nothing short of a miracle. 

I don't have too much to say about "Waves" from CZECH REPUBLIC, but its a solid historical drama based on the true story of Czechoslovakian journalists (many of whom were Communists themselves) trying to report on the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring. I felt this was a story best appreciated by the Czechs themselves and not really by international audiences. But critics love the film and in the 1980s this probably would have been a surefire nominee. Many Oscar prognosticators named this as the biggest surprise on the shortlist....so I just think it lacks the buzz and profile to make it to the next round. 

As for CANADA, the trailer for weird Persian-language comedy "Universal Language", set in an alternate universe (and Persian-speaking) Manitoba, looks charming. But its distributor is sitting on the film's release until next month so I haven't seen it. While it initially had a lot of buzz, this has faded and the film has oft been compared to Roy Andersson...one of my least-favorite international directors and one that Oscar has snubbed repeatedly. 

NO CHANCE:

13. NORWAY, “Armand”

14. UNITED KINGDOM, “Santosh”

15. SENEGAL, “Dahomey”

"Santosh" is a very good film! It deserves its slightly surprising spot on the shortlist. But this mystery--drama about misogyny and corruption in rural India has the least buzz of the 15 films on the list...and that matters a lot now. But it is interesting how "Santosh" managed to get Hindi-language cinema on the shortlist representing the UNITED KINGDOM, just emphasizing once again how stupid the Film Federation of India is for selecting "Laapataa Ladies" over potential winner "All We Imagine As Light". 

I haven't managed to see "Armand" from NORWAY....but it seems extremely divisive. I hear quite a few people say they love it....and even more who say they hate it. Of the four films I haven't seen ("Armand" plus "Sacred Fig", "Universal Language" and "I'm Still Here") it's the one I'm most curious to see. 

Finally, we have "Dahomey" from SENEGAL....Now, a documentary is not a good film just because it is about an important subject, or features interesting people. For a spare 70 minutes, French-Senegalese director Mati Diop films (1)- moving men packing up priceless African artifacts, (2)- a group of exceptionally articulate Beninois students debating art, colonialism, language and life in general, and (3)- a blank screen with a grating auto-tuned voiceover. I would love to have dinner with these students....but Berlin Golden Bear notwithstanding, you can't convince me that "Dahomey" is a good film or a good documentary. I don't think it will be nominated for either. 

I also managed to see all 15 of the shortlisted Animated Short finalists this year.....I only thought two were really Oscar-worthy. 

My predictions:

1. Wander to Wonder             (my #2)

2. Yuck! 

3. ME

4. A Crab in the Pool

5. A Bear Named Wojtek

6. Beautiful Men

7. Maybe Elephants

8. In the Shadow of the Cypress

9. Au Revoir, Mon Monde        (my personal favorite, and my winner)

10. Origami

11. The 21

12. Bottle George

13. Magic Candies

14. Wild-Tempered Clavier

15. Percebes

OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the Asia-Pacific Submissions

And here are the 28 countries from the Asia-Pacific region....

 

 AFGHANISTAN- “In her Hands” Whither Afghanistan. Even before the brutal Taliban retook the country in August 2021, forcing most of the country’s artists and filmmakers into exile or into hiding, Afghanistan was not doing well with AMPAS. Their selection committee was disqualified in 2019 (not sure why) and they failed to send a film in 2020. Now there are no films being made- and that's tragic.  I’ve seen every Afghan submission since 2010 and they’ve sent some truly wonderful films, deserving (in my view) at least two shortlist spots. On the bright side, two of Afghanistan's leading female directors are in pre-production on new films abroad. I'm sure Afghanistan will be absent from the Oscars for awhile, but for the sake of completion, I'll predict "In Her Hands", a documentary by Oscar-nominated female Afghan director Tamana Ayazi (doc short "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone") about the rise and fall of Afghanistan's first female mayor. It's due to premiere in Toronto and is produced by Hillary and Chelsea Clinton. There's also “The Endless War”, a low-budget action-thriller being touted as one of the last films made in the country before the Taliban takeover. 

 AUSTRALIA- “You Won’t Be Alone” English-speaking Australia has sent films to the Foreign Film category nine of the past ten years and they’ll be back again this year, probably with “You Won’t Be Alone”, by Macedonian-born, Melbourne-based Australian filmmaker Goran Stolevski. Starring Noomi Rapace (who co-starred in last year's “Lamb”, another horror flick in a language she does not speak), it’s a horror film about witchcraft and ancient curses in 19^th century Macedonia that already got a U.S. release in 2022. While not a likely nominee, this would be a high-profile submission…and let’s not forget that “Lamb” made the shortlist! The horror film faces a challenge from “We Are Still Here”, a series of short films by four Australian and four New Zealand directors about modern indigenous heroes (which could also be submitted by New Zealand).  

 BANGLADESH- “Hawa” Maritime thriller “Hawa”, about a group of fisherman who encounter a mysterious young woman at sea, is breaking box-office records in Bangladesh and is my prediction to go to the Oscars. However, there are some allegations that the film is a copy of Korea’s 2014 Oscar submission “Haemoo” (Sea Fog). If that becomes an issue (and Bangladesh is corrupt enough that it probably won't), I predict they'll send political thriller “Paap Punyo”, made by the country’s most influential film studio (which has supplied most of the country’s Oscar submissions). Other options: murder mystery “Redrum”, upcoming rural drama “Adom” and “Raat Jaga Phool”, which sounds like a combination of the first two (the murder of a boy in a rural area). I'm really hoping they don’t do a "Lula" (See Brazil 2010) and choose sycophantic biopic “Mujib: The Making of a Nation”, about Bangladesh’s first Prime Minister (and father of the current Prime Minister). Not eligible: “Rickshaw Girl”, probably the #1 Bangladeshi film of the year, and “No Land’s Man” (Busan), by Bangladesh’s leading international director- Mostofa Sarwar Farooki- who has been selected three times. Both are primarily in English.

 BHUTAN- “One Night in Thimphu” Bhutan was the Cinderella story of last year’s Oscars, netting a surprise nomination for the charming, low-budget indie “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”. Bhutan actually produces quite a lot of movies but most of them are made for purely local audiences. If you want to see some of them, there’s a new site/app called Samuh where you can watch them (a few have English subtitles). Bhutan doesn’t have any real Oscar contenders this year, but after last year's success they may choose to send one of their local films to give them some publicity, e.g. “One Night in Thimphu”, about a couple travelling to the capital to get a divorce. The filmmakers won a local Best Picture in Bhutan a few years back. If they send something, it will probably be selected more based on whether English subtitles are available rather than the quality of the film. 

 CAMBODIA - “Everything Will Be OK” If Cambodia, has its way, I predict they will send quirky mystery “Karmalink”, billed as Buddhism meets Sci-Fi. It's totally unique, very Cambodian, and it premiered in Venice last year where it got good reviews…but, with the exception of one producer, the director and crew are all foreign. American director Jake Wachtel is based in Cambodia…but I’m not sure if that counts. It should be noted that “Before the Fall”, which had an Australian director, did qualify in 2016 with a similar situation. With “Karmalink”’s eligibility in doubt, Cambodia’s sole Oscar nominee- documentarian Rithy Panh- will be waiting in the wings. His latest- “Everything Will Be Okay”- won an award in Berlin, but it’s generally considered his weakest work. Using static clay figurines similar to those from the Oscar-nominated “Missing Picture” this is a cerebral documentary-cum-fantasy about animals dominating a future human society. Critics complain that it is filled with overwhelming, droning French-language narration. I like Panh ("S21" is one of the best docs ever) but I’m rooting for "Karmalink". Dark horse: Cambodian director Davy Chou’s “Return to Seoul” (Cannes) is not very Cambodian at all, but may meet the nationality requirements for this story about a French-Korean adoptee returning to Korea to discover her roots. 

 CHINA- "Return to Dust" China makes the strangest choices and I think last year was the first year they picked the frontrunner (Zhang Yimou's low-key spy thriller "Cliff Walkers") since 2013. Although China makes some truly wonderful films, they don't send them. In the past ten years, the best film they've sent (according to both IMDB and Letterboxd) is kiddie cartoon "Ne Zha". That's sad....and very possibly true! (I've seen 9 out of 10 and personally liked "Caught in the Web" and "Go Away, Mr. Tumor", but they were hardly Oscar-worthy). Why not send "Shadow" or "Coffin in the Mountain"? Last year, was the first time they even tried to send a real Oscar contender since 2014, so here's hoping they'll send a quality film instead of a movie all critics find boring (2016), a poorly reviewed action blockbuster (2017) or a spy thriller no one likes (2018). So who are the five main Chinese contenders? "Lighting Up the Stars", a drama seeking to channel Czech winner "Kolya", "Nice View", a comedy-drama about a man trying to pay for his sister's surgery, and the only Best Picture nominee from the Hundred Flowers Awards to be eligible this year, "Return to Dust", an arthouse film about an arranged marriage and the only Chinese to compete at a major festival this year (Berlinale 2022), "Run Tiger Run", a well-received Chinese anime in the style of "Ne Zha", and "Snipers", a Korean War drama and the latest from Zhang Yimou (who repped China last year). Jackie Chan's "Home Operation", a Chinese version of "Escape from Mogadishu", about the evacuation of Chinese nationals from wartorn Yemen probably won't be finished in time. I'm in a good today so let's predict China's sends something good. I predict "Return to Dust", followed by "Lighting Up the Stars". 

 FIJI- Nothing Fiji sent a single film in 2005 but has no real domestic film industry and nothing eligible this year.

 HONG KONG- “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong” If the year ended today, Hong Kong would probably pick “Mama’s Affair”, a soap opera cum family drama about a housewife seeking to return to her career as a talent manager. But there are three months left until the November 30th deadline and “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong” could easily knock it down. The film has no release date yet, but it will 100% represent Hong Kong once it comes out- either this year or next year. The film reunites the cast and crew of “Infernal Affairs” (which was remade as Best Picture winner “The Departed”), including Andy Lau and Tony Leung, for this crime drama set in the 1980s. The Hong Kong Academy loves crime dramas, and this is one of the most expensive and hotly anticipated HK films in recent history. If it’s released by November 30, it’s in. If not, it’s probably “Mama”. Other options: “Barbarian Invasion” (Shanghai) and “A New Old Play” (Locarno 2021).

 INDIA- "RRR" India is almost impossible to predict. They make hundreds of movies in dozens of languages each year. In the past ten years, they've selected six regional films (in five different regional languages) and only two that could be described as traditional "Bollywood" (the goofy but charming "Barfi!" and the terribly dull "Gully Boy"). Four of the submissions ("The Good Road", "Liar's Dice", "Pebbles" and "Village Rockstars") were mostly unknown on the day they were chosen, and many popular favorites were ignored in favor of lesser films. So, it's surprising that this year, India appears to have reached a consensus that 3-hour Bollywood "RRR" is their best chance at an Oscar nomination in years. By some accounts the most expensive Indian film ever made, the film has done well with both Indian and Western critics, securing a Netflix deal and becoming one of only four Indian films in history to gross 10 billion rupees (about $150 million). And despite being popular with Hindi audiences and the "Bollywood"-style, it's also a regional film originally made in Telugu, whose film industry hasn't been selected for the Oscars since 1986. So, while it's not a sure thing (India's Academy makes weird choices), there's certainly no better prediction. Serious threats may come from Sanjay leela Bhansali's "Gangubai Kathiawadi" which played in a sidebar section of Berlinale, and "Aparajito" (in Bengali), a tribute to renowned Indian director Satyajit Ray, Other options that we may see on the shortlist: "Rocketry: The Nambi Effect" and "The Kashmir Files" (Hindi), "Bhoothakaalam" and "Freedom Fight" (Malayalam), "Mrugtushna" (Gujarati), "Taanakkaran" (Tamil), "Situ Ramam" (Telugu), and documentary "All that Breathes" (Hindi).  

 INDONESIA- “Before, Now and Then” (Nana) Indonesia’s two main contenders are about how difficult it is to be an Indonesian woman. “Before, Now and Then” competed at Berlinale where it won Best Supporting Actress, and “Photocopier” swept the National Film Awards late last year. If they do pick the festival cache of “Before, Now and Then”, 36-year old Kamila Andini will have been selected two years in a row. The film is about a woman living amidst the political turmoil of Indonesia in the 1960s. Back in the present-day, “Photocopier” follows a similar theme, this time a woman from a conservative family who is thrown out of her home and loses her scholarship when scandalous photos (which she cannot remember) surface on social media. Dark horses include “Preman”, a crime drama with a deaf protagonist, and the upcoming “Autobiography”, which is premiering in Venice but unlikely to get a local release in time (but will be a probable frontrunner for next year). I think "Before Now and Then" will be picked. 

 JAPAN- TBD

 KAZAKHSTAN- “Scheme” Kazakhstan has a wide-open race this year with at least eight films in strong contention. The Kazakh Academy likes to send films that highlight national history or culture (2012, 2013, 2015, 2019) or ones that show how Kazakhs/Central Asians have been victimized by Russian/Soviet aggression (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020). They have traditionally shied away from films- like the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons” which was not sent- that show contemporary social problems. This presents the Kazakhs with a dilemma as the two films that won awards in Berlin- grim domestic violence drama “Happiness” (Panorama Audience Award) and “Scheme” (14+), about adolescent angst about the upper classes- are totally about contemporary social problems. They have two biopics about national poets- “Poet” (Berlin) and “Mukagali (Tallinn Black Nights)- that are more in line with what Kazakhstan usually sends, but poetry is tough to translate and neither film has much buzz.  WWII drama “Summer of 1941” is "patriotic" but reviews haven’t been great. Super-prolific director Adilkhan Yerzhanov was selected for the first time last year, which will probably make it harder for him to be selected a second time for either of his two new black comedies, “Assault” (Rotterdam) or “Herd Immunity” (Nika nomination). Lastly, there’s “Zere”, a quiet village drama about a widow trying to pay off her husband’s debts, after his unexpected death. I’ve been a big fan of Farkhat Sharipov since his brilliant “Tale of a Pink Hare” so I’m predicting “Scheme”, which is a far less grim look at Kazakh society than “Happiness”. I have "Poet" in second place, “Zere” in third, “Happiness” in fourth and "Mukagali" in fifth. 

 KOREA- “Decision to Leave" WRITTEN BEFORE KOREA'S OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT Korea quietly announced a shortlist with seven films on July 19th- “Broker”, “Contorted”, “Decision to Leave”, “Emergency Declaration”, “Hansan: Rising Dragon”, “Hommage” and “Yeonryeon”. Let’s do this backwards:

7^th place- “Yeonryeon”. No information online. Film has no digital footprint. 

6^th place- “Contorted”. Genre bias. Korea is unlikely to choose a horror movie. 

5^th place- “Hommage” An obscure film about the travails of female filmmakers…but the film has no buzz and the Korean Academy has never chosen a film by a female director. 

4^th place- “Broker”. It’s true that good reviews and a Best Actor win at Cannes for Korean megastar Song Kang-ho (“Parasite”) will help…but there is no way that nationalist Korea will pick a movie by a Japanese director, even if that director is Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda. 

3^rd place- “Emergency Declaration” is a well-received action movie…but no one seems to think that it’s more than that. 

2^nd place- “Hansan: Rising Dragon” is a big-budget historical drama that has dominated the Korean box office…but it’s also a sequel (actually a prequel) to a film AMPAS members won’t have seen (I’ve seen the first one….production values are excellent but it was a nationalistic mess). 

That means there is a 90% chance that “Decision to Leave” by the brilliant Park Chan-wook will get this. Even if the competition wasn’t weak (and it is), “Decision to Leave” won Best Director at Cannes, has a recognizable star (Tang Wei, “Lust Caution”) and excellent reviews. Even if Korea has ignored him before (“Oldboy” was defeated by Korean war drama “Taegukgi”; “The Handmaiden” was defeated by the quickly forgotten spy movie “Age of Shadows”), “Parasite” has made them realize they can win….They won’t ignore Park this year. UPDATE: "Decision to Leave" was officially selected on August 11. 

 KYRGYZSTAN- “1000 Dreams” Kyrgyzstan is usually one of my favorite countries in this competition but they don’t have much this year. The only film I know about is a surreal B&W drama called  “1000 Dreams” (Tallinn Black Nights) whose trailer looks confusing to say the least.

 LAOS- Nothing Laos sent a horror movie in 2017 but even though they’ve had some well received films at festivals since then, they haven’t sent anything else. As far as I know, they got slowed down by the pandemic and haven’t made a feature film since “Goodbye Mister Wong” which premiered in France in December 2021…making it eligible this year.

 MALAYSIA- “Imaginur” Malaysia has sent seven films intermittently since 2004, covering virtually every genre- two dramas, a documentary, a horror movie, an action movie, a comedy, and a genre-defying fantasy period piece. I’m predicting a surprise win for “Imaginur”, a quirky fantasy drama that premiered at the New York Asian Film Festival, about a man whose life and memory begin to play tricks on him. On paper, it's probably more likely they would choose upcoming Locarno violent sci-fi flick “The Stone Turtle” or nationalist action epic “Mat Kilau” about Malays fighting British colonialist rule. But I'm sticking with "Imaginur". Less likely: “Tiga Janda Melawan Dunia”, a comedy about a bunch of older ladies who accidentally get themselves involved in a drug war....It's probably too silly but it has gotten strong reviews. 

 MONGOLIA- “Bliss Bringer” Mongolia skipped last year which is a shame because they had a number of interesting films to choose from. I blame COVID. If they decide to return this year, I’m pretty sure it will be either “Bliss Bringer”, a drama about two “frenemy” nomadic tribes who come together once a year to celebrate Mongolian New Year, or “The Sales Girl”, a black comedy about a young woman who takes a job at a sex shop in the capital, Ulaanbaatar. “Sales Girl” represented Mongolia at Cannes Film Market and Asian festivals in Osaka and New York, but every single one of Mongolia’s submissions thus far has focused on Mongolia’s rural cultural traditions, so I’m picking “Bliss”.

 NEPAL- “Tulkee” Nepal submitted movies every year from 2013-2019 but they have been absent since the pandemic (they did call for submissions in both 2020 and 2021, so they haven’t lost interest). This year, I expect they will send either “Tulkee”, about a young bride who is forced to marry her husband’s two brothers per village tradition, or “Prakash” an inspiring “feel-good” movie about a poor village boy who wants to become a schoolteacher. My original pick, “Crushed Wings”, about female genital mutilation, appears to be entirely in English. Nepal likes “issue movies” so my money is on “Tulkee”. 

 NEW ZEALAND- “Nude Tuesday”

So, this year's big eligibility question is likely to come from English-speaking New Zealand. The raucous nudist comedy co-starring Jemaine Clement (“Flight of the Conchords”) is in an invented “gibberish” language spoken by its entire cast. AMPAS rules simply say the film has to be mostly in “a language other than English”….which this film is….So it’s my professional opinion that it’s eligible. For the record, “Nude Tuesday” is a comedy about a middle-aged married couple who end up on a nudist retreat to save their marriage. Four of NZ’s six Oscar submissions have been stories in the indigenous Pacific languages of Maori and Samoan. This year, New Zealand has “Whina”, a Maori biopic, and “We Are Still Here”, an omnibus film by four Australian and four New Zealand directors, that could easily represent either country. But “Whina” might have too much English. Or, New Zealand, which has skipped the past three years, may just opt out again.

 PAKISTAN- “Joyland” Pakistan took the year off last year due to cinema closures but they’ll definitely be back this year with one of two critically acclaimed films- Cannes darling “Joyland” (where it won two awards) and “Kamli”, widely held to be the best Pakistani film of the year. This will be rough. “Kamli” director Sarmad Sultan Khoosat was selected in 2020 for the brilliant, controversial “Circus of Life”…. It's a melodrama about a woman whose husband has been missing for eight years and would probably be the more popular choice in Pakistan. But I think the Cannes victory of “Joyland” (which was widely hailed as a victory for Pakistan's struggling cinema) will be too much to overcome. Interestingly enough, the film is about a romance between a wealthy man and a transgender dancer. It won the Queer Palm so you can add Pakistan to the list of countries (Georgia, Morocco) whose frontrunner may be stymied by homophobia. But trans issues in Pakistan are far less controversial than LGB issues, and the Pakistani Academy has shown itself to be far more progressive than the country it represents. But if the trans themes do make them queasy, "Kamli" would be a fitting substitute. Dark horse: the hotly anticipated action thriller “The Legend of Maula Jatt” is a modern remake of a beloved series of shlocky 70s films.

 PHILIPPINES- “Whether the Weather is Fine”- In 2005, the Film Academy of the Philippines sparked a backlash from the local film community after they failed to send a film claiming they thought they weren’t invited (AMPAS confirmed they were). Last year, they said they couldn’t participate because of the pandemic. Once again, the film community angrily pointed out that several films, including “On the Job 2” (Venice 2021), were in fact eligible. This year, they’ll probably be back and it’s a fairly wide open race. I see the five evenly matched frontrunners as (alphabetically) “The Baseball Player” (Winner, Cinemalaya 2022), about former child soldiers dreaming of becoming champion baseball players in a war-torn southern region,  “Big Night” (Winner, Metro Manila 2021), a very dark comedy about a young man trying to get his name of a government “blacklist” that is likely to get him killed, “Blue Room” (Jury Prize, Cinemalaya 2022), a moral dilemma drama about a bunch of privileged teens caught with drugs by corrupt police, “Leonor Will Never Die” (Sundance), a surreal comedy-drama about an elderly woman director who dreams of being an action hero, and “Whether the Weather is Fine” (Locarno 2021, Jury Prize, Metro Manila 2021), about the aftermath of a typhoon. Release dates are very confusing; I can’t confirm that any of them got a qualifying release. If they’re all eligible, I think “Leonor” or “Weather” will be picked because of their international exposure, although “Big Night” has the best reviews and is directed by Jun Lana, who deserved an Oscar nod for “Bwakaw” ten years ago. “Whether the Weather is Fine” looks like what the Philippines usually sends- namely, a long-winded arthouse film- though I have no desire to see it. I predict “Leonor” will come second, “Big Night” in third, “Baseball Player” in fourth, and “Blue Room” in fifth. I hope they’ll go with one of the two dark comedies. Unlikely but possible: Auteurs Brillante Mendoza (“Virgin Forest”) and Lav Diaz (“History ni Ha” and “When the Waves are Gone”) have new films but I don’t think they’ll contend this year; there’s also medical thriller “Nelia”, abortion drama “12 Weeks”, and revenge thriller “Kargo”.

 SINGAPORE- “24” Singapore has had such a weak film year that I wonder whether they’ll even bother to enter this year. They’ve got three local Chinese comedies and some controversial anti-establishment docs that would never be selected. I'm guessing they’ll go with the experimental “24” (Busan) by Royston Tan, one of the island’s best-known directors. It’s some sort of weird movie about a dead sound engineer who comes back to life and visits different locations with his equipment. If it's just too strange, they send comedy “Reunion Dinner” or drop out.  

 SRI LANKA- “The Dawning of the Day” Sri Lanka is falling apart. The president fled the country on July 13, the economy is in tatters and, anyway, they haven’t sent a movie to the Oscars since 2009. They won’t send a film but if they did, the only real contender would be “The Dawning of the Day” (Tokyo) a fictionalization of the life of poet Pablo Neruda who served as Spanish ambassador to Sri Lanka and whose writings reveal possible evidence of a history of sexual  assault.  

 TAIWAN- On August 15th, Taiwan became the first country in Asia to make their Oscar selection- horror-drama “Goddamned Asura”- before I had a chance to make my predictions. 

 TAJIKISTAN- “The Water Boy” Tajikistan sent two films to the Oscars but they’ve been absent since 2005…longer than any country in this region. I think “The Water Boy”, a drama about a group of filmmakers who come to make a movie in a tiny village, was released too early, but I can’t find any evidence of any features produced more recently.

 THAILAND- “One For the Road” Thailand produces some of the craziest, most bonkers submissions year after year, including last year’s “The Medium” which I loved and AMPAS surely hated. Last year, I predicted “One for the Road” (Sundance 2021) which didn’t premiere in Thailand until February 2022. This road movie about two friends who go on a final trip after one friend is diagnosed with terminal cancer has gotten very good reviews (winning the Special Jury Prize at Sundance) and is likely to tug at all the right heartstrings. Director Nattawut “Baz” Poonpiriya was selected once before for a crazy violent horror movie (“Countdown”) and came close with critically acclaimed heist comedy “Bad Genius”, so he’s well-liked and also due. It helps that Thailand doesn’t have too many other options. It’s main competition comes from “Anatomy of Time”, a pretentious arthouse film that played in Venice (Thailand picked films like this in 2017/2018). Tom Waller (also overdue) has “Cave Rescue”, about the famous 2018 rescue of the Thai schoolboys, but reviews aren’t nearly as good as “One for the Road”. “Fast and Feel Love” has good reviews but it’s probably a bit too light and silly. “One for the Road” is probably safe and will be one of the submissions I most want to see this year.

 UZBEKISTAN- “Captivity” (Tutqunlik) There’s not much information about the Uzbek film industry online. They had a pavilion this year at Cannes, but it seems to have been primarily a way of promoting Uzbekistan as a filming destination for period epics (I was there on vacation last year; it’s a beautiful location!). Most of their films are fairly basic efforts. There was an Uzbek/Russian-language film about Uzbek migrants living in Moscow at Berlinale 2022 (“Convenience Store”) but I don’t think it would meet the nationality requirements. For lack of other options, I’m predicting “Captivity”, a state-sponsored film about trying to reform Uzbeks returning from jihadist crusades in the Middle East…but that would be an odd choice to represent the secular-minded country.  

 VIETNAM- “The Brilliant Darkness” Vietnam has been submitting every year since 2015 and, unlike most countries, the majority of their submitted films have been locally popular films. So, I expect they’ll send popular family thriller “The Brilliant Darkness” (Đêm Tối Rực Rỡ!), about a large family who assembles for their grandfather’s funeral, and learns that a violent mafia gang is on their way to collect a large debt none of them knew about. It’s been compared to a Vietnamese “Parasite” or “Knives Out”. One hiccup- the director is a Vietnam-based American. Other options: action revenge movie “578” sounds like their previous submission “Furie” or, if they want to go the festival route, “Memoryland”, a “Magnolia”-style drama with a flurry of stories revolving around death and mortality. It played in Berlin and Busan.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

It's highly doubtful that any new Asian countries will debut this year, but the most likely would be LGBT drama "What Happened to the Wolf" from BURMA (MYANMAR). The filmmakers are opposed to the brutal military government so the film can't screen in Burma, so the Burmese would have to form a committee in exile (which Syria did in 2017). TURKMENISTAN, the only former Soviet republic never to enter a film, previously banned domestic cinema but all that's changed, and they have a fairly big-budget costume drama "Çapar" this year. Tiny MACAU has "Madalena". NORTH KOREA has Korean War romance "The Day the Mountain Cried", but the idea of them entering the Oscars is pretty much impossible.