2012 Oscar Predictions

And then there were five.....

Like everyone else in the world, I'm predicting "A Separation" for the win, but I'm less sure than most! Even though the reviews have not been as universally strong as Iran's family drama, Poland's Holocaust-era drama "In Darkness" is in a very strong second position, and I'm worried...

Like most years, most of the nominees have not been released in American cinemas so I've only had the chance to "A Separation" and "Bullhead". I strongly disliked "Bullhead" and really don't understand any of the positive notices, other than the strong lead performance. Here in Washington, DC, they do show all the nominated films at the National Geographic Society every year, but I was in the Caribbean and so missed seeing them....

One interesting trivia fact is that Israel, Poland and Belgium are three of the four countries that have the most Foreign Oscar nominations without actually winning the award. Given that Iran has also never won, we have a 95% chance (Canada did win once) of having a country winning for the first time.....

While I rarely agree with the choices for the five nomineees, I usually DO agree with the choice of the winning film. I guess this means that the selection committee and I have our disagreements, but the overall Academy membership and I often see eye-to-eye...I don't often say this, but I'm rooting for Iran!

FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. IRAN- "A Separation" (60% chance)
2. POLAND- "In Darkness" (30% chance)
3. CANADA - "Monsieur Lazhar" (7% chance)
4. ISRAEL- "Footnote" (2% chance)
5. BELGIUM- "Bullhead" (1% chance)

Other Predictions-
Best Picture- The Artist
Best Director- Martin Scorsese
Best Actor- George Clooney
Best Actress- Meryl Streep (the closest race!!)
Best Supporting Actress- Octavia Spencer
Best Supporting Actor- Christopher Plummer
Best Original Screenplay- A Separation (probably too much to hope for?)
Best Adapted Screenplay- The Descendants

Best Animated Film- Rango
Best Animated Short- La Luna
Best Live Action Short- Raju (Germany)
Best Documentary- Paradise Lost 3
Best Documentary Short- Saving Face

Best Art Direction- Hugo
Best Cinematography- The Tree of Life
Best Costumes- Anonymous
Best Editing- The Artist
Best Makeup- Harry Potter 8
Best Musical Score- The Artist
Best Song- The Muppets
Best Sound Editing- War Horse
Best Sound Mixing- Hugo
Best Visual Effects- Rise of the Planet of the Apes

NOMINATION PREDICTIONS and SHORTLIST REVIEW

Four of out of nine....This is the worst I've done since I started keeping this blog.....CANADA's "Monsieur Lazhar", IRAN's "A Separation" and POLAND's "In Darkness" were obvious, and should have no trouble making the five-film nomination stage.....I also got ISRAEL's esoteric "Footnote", which most people also predicted....

I'm kicking myself for dropping MOROCCO (the one that seems to have surprised everyone) from my list the day before....I should have known that the Oscar committee can't get enough of producer Rached Bouchareb, and "Omar"'s topical, baity plotline. And I should have also guessed that the elite committee would save GERMANY's "Pina", which I'm pretty sure could not have gotten past the regular committee.

That said, I'm pretty surprised at BELGIUM, DENMARK, and especially TAIWAN, which I thought was an also-ran for sure. DENMARK's lightweight comedy "Superclasico" did have good buzz around it....BELGIUM's crime drama "Bullhead" had great buzz too, and I mistakenly placed it low down my list since it's actually a bad film (I saw it in October). I should have known they don't decide on quality. TAIWAN's four-hour plus violent action opus "Seediq Bale" apparently wowed some voters, although I'm pretty certain that the Taiwanese (with Belgium and Germany) were saved by the big committee.

I guess the Belgians and the Danes can now be forgiven for ignoring their respective Oscar front-runners ("The Kid With a Bike" and "A Family")!

I was quite shocked to see FINLAND ("Le Havre") and FRANCE ("Declaration of War") missing from the list, and to a lesser extent, also MEXICO's "Miss Bala". I think "Le Havre" was a decent film, but I dislike Kaurismaki, so I was sort of happy to see him snubbed.

But it's now a new day....The five nominations will be announced on Tuesday and it'll be a close one....I can see any of these nine films going the distance, but here are my predictions:

SURE THINGS
1. IRAN- "A Separation"
2. POLAND- "In Darkness"
3. CANADA- "Monsieur Lazhar"

Difficult to see any of these well-reviewed candidates missing....

ON THE BUBBLE
4. MOROCCO- "Omar Killed Me"
5. ISRAEL- "Footnote"
6. BELGIUM- "Bullhead"

Morocco's French film is easily the most accessible of these three films jockeying for the other two spots.

DARK HORSES
7. GERMANY- "Pina"
8. DENMARK- "Superclasico"
9. TAIWAN- "Seediq Bale"

Boy this is going to be close! GERMANY's dance documentary is easily the favorite and critical darling, but this visually dazzling film is not what is usually honored here....DENMARK's "Superclasico" is supposed to be charming and funny, but reviews are easily the weakest of the nine films here, and "charming and funny" didn't help "Simple Simon" to make the finals last year (although it worked for BELGIUM's "Everybody Famous!"). TAIWAN is the only film I really think is unlikely....but I could be wrong again!

Two other short notes....For those of you want to see films on the list for yourself:

1. The films from COLOMBIA and URUGUAY are available to watch or rent in the US on Netflix or Amazon, with PERU coming out next month.

2. The films from CHINA, FINLAND, FRANCE, GERMANY, MEXICO and the real entry from ALBANIA (The Forgiveness of Blood) are in US cinemas, or coming soon.

3. You can buy the movies from GERMANY, GREECE, IRAN, IRELAND, KOREA, NETHERLANDS, SPAIN, SWEDEN and the UK with English subtitles (most very expensive!!) on Ebay or similar sites, and also BRAZIL and CUBA without subtitles.

4. The films from INDIA and INDONESIA are on Youtube (probably illegally!) with no English subtitles.

And since there are OTHER categories in the Oscar race, here are my predictions for the major categories, in order of likelihood:

PICTURE: : The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Tree of Life, Harry Potter 8 (ALT: Drive, Moneyball, Bridesmaids, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, My Week with Marilyn)
ACTOR: Clooney, Pitt, Fassbender, DuJardin and Bichir (ALT: Leo diCaprio)
ACTRESS: Streep, Davis, Williams, Swinton and Close (ALT: Rooney Mara)
SUPP. ACTOR: Plummer, Branagh, Brooks, Nolte, Hammer (ALT: Jonah Hill)
SUPP. ACTRESS:: Spencer, Bejo, Woodley, McTeer, Chastain (ALT: Melissa McCarthy)
DIRECTOR:: Hazanavicius, Scorsese, W. Allen, Payne, Fincher (ALT: Nicolas Winding Refn)

SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS

Well, the 9-film Foreign Film shortlist will come out today (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday), so it's time to draft my list of predictions...I'm fairly confident about the first seven films on the list, but the other two will really depend on the Elite Committee....

Will they be forced to use their "three film save" to nominate acclaimed movies like "Le Havre" and "A Separation"? Or will those films find favor with the larger committee, allowing them to go right-field with divisive choices like "Pina" or "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"?

Will the large committee choose "Oscary" films that have gotten mostly bad reviews, like "Sonny Boy" and "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"? We'll find out very soon.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. IRAN- Nader & Simin: A Separation
2. CANADA- Monsieur Lazhar
3. POLAND- In Darkness
4. FINLAND- Le Havre
5. FRANCE- Declaration of War
6. MEXICO- Miss Bala
7. ISRAEL- Footnote
8. AUSTRIA- Breathing
9. CHINA- Flowers of War

VERY STRONG POSSIBILITIES
10. NETHERLANDS- Sonny Boy (Large Committee Only)
11. HONG KONG- A Simple Life
12. MOROCCO- Omar Killed Me
13. GERMANY- Pina (Elite Committee Only)
14. ICELAND- Volcano

DARK HORSES
15. IRELAND- As If I Am Not There
16. SPAIN- Black Bread
17. NORWAY- Happy, Happy
18. RUSSIA- Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel (Large Committe Only)
19. LEBANON- Where Do We Go Now?
20. SWEDEN- Beyond
21. TURKEY- Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Elite Committee Only)
22. HUNGARY- The Turin Horse (Elite Committee Only)
23. NEW ZEALAND- The Orator
24. DENMARK- Superclasico

REAL LONGSHOTS
25. BULGARIA- Tilt
26. BELGIUM- Bullhead
27. JAPAN- Postcard
28. SLOVAKIA- Gypsy
29. COLOMBIA- Colors of the Mountain
30. ITALY- Terraferma
31. CHILE- Violeta

I don't see anyone else as having a real shot.....

LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION- Uruguay's low-budget horror movie "The Silent House" (which isn't a bad movie but is definitely out of its league here...)

MOST LIKELY TO GET THEIR FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION- Morocco, for "Omar Killed Me"

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to let me know...

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- The Americas, Africa and Oceania (16 Films)

The official Oscar list should come out tomorrow, so here are the films from Africa, the Americas and the Pacific:

CRIPPLED OUT OF THE GATE:
16. PUERTO RICO- "America"

I'm so angry that PUERTO RICO was disqualified...AMPAS decided that Puerto Rico no longer qualifies as a country even though they have entered the Oscar competition since 1986, earning one Oscar nomination. Although there has been no recent change in Puerto Rico's political status and although AMPAS does recognize Greenland (an autonomous region of Denmark), Hong Kong (an autonomous region of China), Palestine (an occupied territory) and Taiwan (an unrecognized republic) as countries (and I agree that they are), AMPAS decided all of a sudden to uninvite Puerto Rico last year. I'm quite angry at this ridiculous decision.

Apparently, the Puerto Ricans were informed about this ridiculous decision last year, but they decided to submit "America" anyway. It's about a woman who flees an abusive relationship to move to New York City and develops friendships with a group of Spanish-speaking nannies from around Latin America. For those of you who try to see all the Oscar submissions each year, please try to see "America", which co-stars Oscar nominee Edward James Olmos. I will!

As a quick PS.....AMPAS promised in their decision that Puerto Rican films would be allowed to compete in the "main categories" as American releases. However, "America" did not appear in the AMPAS list of eligible releases since it did not get a Los Angeles release. Ridiculous.

NO CHANCE:
15. URUGUAY- "La Casa Muda"
14. EGYPT- "Lust"
13. ARGENTINA- "Aballay"
12. SOUTH AFRICA- "Beauty"
11. CUBA- "Habanastation"

Better luck next year for these five countries, and their unusual choices for Oscar. URUGUAY's "Silent House" is probably this year's biggest longshot....Reportedly made for only 6000 US dollars, this film claims to be the first horror film shot in one single shot. The film is about a young woman trapped in a mysterious abandoned house (with a killer? with ghosts?) You can watch it (like I did) on Amazon. A low-budget horror film is not exactly an Oscar draw but with a US remake already released and an impressive recoup on its budget, the film is a great success and an interesting (though very imperfect) watch.

EGYPT's soap opera "Lust", filmed prior to the revolution in Egypt, is said to foreshadow much of the dissatisfaction with the Mubarak era. Though it is acclaimed for a tour-de-force perfomance by lead actress Susan Badr, the film has gotten mixed reviews for its class-driven story of a woman trying to claw her way back from poverty, back into the middle-class from whence she came. Other than "Silent House", it got the lowest rating of these films on IMDB, and a rather mixed reception.

ARGENTINA and SOUTH AFRICA have gotten a much more varied reception. "Aballay" is a brutally violent western about a man who seeks revenge on the man who murdered his family in front of him as a child. That man (Aballay) has since seen the error of his ways and pursued a life of peace and nonviolence. "Beauty" is the first South African film about the country's white community to be selected since 1997 (and ironically the first-ever South African submission by a non-white director!). "Beauty" is about a closeted gay man who lusts after his nephew's friend...Both films have their fans, but also a lot of detractors. Argentina's film especially is said to be all over the place and perhaps a bit over-the-top...Both are too divisive to make the next round.

CUBA's "Habanastation" counts Michael Moore among its fans, and the documentarian has worked to get the film screened in the US. However, this story about two 12-year old boys who go from become enemies to being friends is said to be largely for younger audiences and doesn't have the gravitas to make Round Two. It is said to be an interesting look into "class conflict" in Cuba, where rich and poor continue to exist despite decades of Communism.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK
10. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- "Love Child"
9. PERU- "Octubre"
8. BRAZIL- "Tropa de Elite 2"
7. VENEZUELA- "Rumble of the Stones"

These four Latino films have gotten generally good reviews (especially Venezuela) but are extreme long-shots to make the Top Nine films worldwide. The biggest is obviously BRAZIL's high-octane blockbuster sequel "Tropa de Elite 2". The original "Tropa de Elite" was hotly tipped to rep Brazil in 2007, but was beat out by "The Day My Parents Went on Vacation". Considering the failure of "City of God" to make the shortlist, this was a wise move ("Vacation" was the last Brazilian film to make the shortlist, though it didn't really deserve it). Choosing a sequel is risky (will viewers "get it" without seeing the original) and this genre has traditionally done nothing for the Academy. The film has gotten good reviews, but won't score here.

The Dominicans and Peruvians have the opposite problem...Their films (a dramatic comedy and a comedic drama) are very "small". PERU's "Octubre", about a small-time loan shark who finds a baby abandoned on his doorstep by a local prostitute, won Un Certain Regard in Cannes 2010, but it's quite minimalist and will probably get lost in the crowd. The DOMINICAN REPUBLIC rejoins the competition for the first time since 1995's silly but fun comedy "Nueba Yol". Welcome back! They've chosen quirky comedy "Love Child" (La Hija Natural), about a girl who searches for her biological father after the untimely death of her mother. It's supposed to be a good film with lots of local culture but I don't fancy it's chance of making the Top Nine. Still, it's an excellent opportunity for Dominican cinema to be seen by some of Hollywood's movers and shakers. I look forward to seeing "Child", and I never would have heard of the film without this competition.

For the second year in a row, VENEZUELA has selected a strong social drama about a poor Venezuelan family headed by a hard-working single mother with two sons. That said, this year's "Rumble of the Stones", about a family who moved to Caracas years after devastating floods destroyed their rural home, has gotten less publicity than last year's "Hermano". In the end, I think "Stones" will place fairly well, but the gritty subject matter and occasional lapses into soap opera (so I've heard) will make it finish high...but not high enough....

VERY DARK HORSES
6. CHILE- "Violeta"
5. NEW ZEALAND- "The Orator"
4. COLOMBIA- "Colors of the Mountain"

Chile and Colombia, each fighting for their first Oscar nomination, have each chosen films with a strongly local flavor. "Violeta", from CHILE, is an autobiographical film about Violeta Parra, a beloved leftist folk singer who committed suicide in 1967. "Colors of the Mountain", from COLOMBIA is about a young boy and his friends growing up amidst the violent Colombian countryside where ordinary people are caught up in the war between the military and FARC guerillas. You can see "Colors of the Mountain" on Netflix if you like. Both films have gotten good reviews and have a very small chance at making the Oscar shortlist. In the end, I think "Violeta" is too local (few have probably heard of Violeta Parra in Los Angeles....I know I haven't), and while "Colors" may benefit from its baity "cute children in peril" plotline, I think it will be left behind by bigger films. The large committee probably won't rank it in the Top Six, and the small committee will be too busy rescuing bigger films. We'll see...

Then there's "The Orator" from SAMOA, although it is representing NEW ZEALAND. Director Tusi Tamasese is a NZ citizen based in Wellington, but the film truly belongs to the tiny island nation of SAMOA, the home of its cast and of the Samoan language, put on film for the first time. This exotic and original tale is about a little person (a Samoan Peter Dinklage??) from a chiefly family and the village intrigues surrounding him, his normal-sized wife, her child, and his family. It's been warmly received, but most people note that the film is most outstanding for providing a window into Samoan culture. Tamasese is a debut director, and the Oscars have not widely embraced films that are notable primarily for cultural interest (i.e. "Ten Canoes", "Story of the Weeping Camel"). "The Orator" is a dark horse, but may just miss the cut.


STRONG CONTENDERS
3. MOROCCO- "Omar Killed Me"
2. MEXICO- "Miss Bala"

Two "based on a true story" dramas have a good chance of making the final list....

MEXICO's "Miss Bala", a thriller about a girl from the barrio who ends up getting mixed up with gangsters and drug dealers in an effort to win a local beauty pageant, easily has some of the best foreign-language reviews of the year. It's not a sure thing, but its strong reviews and wide appeal should overcome skittishness about violence (like "Amores Perros") and make the Final Nine and ultimately probably the Final Five. It will soon be released Stateside. Can't wait.

If we're going to be honest, "Omar Killed Me" is a French film, but it's representing MOROCCO, and giving that North African country their best-ever chance for a nomination. The film has much the same team as the Oscar nominated "Indigenes" and "Outside the Law" (which both represented Algeria), with Moroccan-French Roschdy Zem (who co-starred in those two films) directing Sami Bouajila (who also co-starred in both films) while Rachid Bouchareb (who wrote and directed those two films) co-wrote and producd. "Omar" is based on a famous murder case from the South of France in which a Moroccan immigrant is accused of killing a wealthy French woman. He is convicted on the basis of the French woman allegedly writing "Omar m'a tuer" on the wall in her dying moments...For those of you who speak French, this is an obvious grammatical error that no French person would ever make, making it highly unlikely that this educated lady would have one it herself. "Omar" is said to be a strong legal drama and an "issue film" about racial discrimination in France. Reviews have been positive but far from perfect...This team and these issues have resonated with the Oscar committee before and this film film will be on the bubble to make the next round.

EXCELLENT CHANCE
1. CANADA- "Monsieur Lazhar"- Almost as much of a lock as "A Separation", Canada's "Monsieur Lazhar" is about an Algerian immigrant (is he illegal?) who substitutes for a Quebecois middle school class after their teacher commits suicide. "Lazhar" pushes all the Oscar buttons- great reviews, esteemed teacher, cute kids, social issues, French language. It's been quietly earning strong notices from nearly all the critics that have seen it and should be considered a real threat for the win. Canada has been shortlisted four of the past five years (ironically the best one, "I Killed My Mother", was NOT shortlisted) and this one will probably be added to the pile.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 32- 8 from North America, 9 from South America, 12 from Africa and 3 from Oceania.

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: Puerto Rico, for the dumbest reasons ever. (See Below). I’ve also heard that the Central African Republic was disqualified from sending “Oka”. Although it was set and filmed in that remote country, “Oka” had an American director, an international cast and no evidence of any significant local crew.

Number of countries opting out: 16, I suppose….But nine of these countries have only submitted a film one time (especially the Africans), and two others (Australia and Nicaragua) don’t appear to have any eligible films. Also absent this year: ALGERIA (nominated last yeasr), BOLIVIA, ECUADOR, TUNISIA and, most surprisingly COSTA RICA, which had probably their best-ever film year ever and whose “Of Love and Demons” was supposedly well-received last year. I was sure they would send child abuse drama “Cold Water of the Sea”.

From Africa, I really thought we’d see CHAD and CONGO-KINSHASA rejoining the competition. “Viva Riva”, a gangster drama set in Kinshasa, is easily the most acclaimed movie ever to come out of the war-torn CONGO, and it actually got a well-reviewed US release. Perhaps it didn’t get an Oscar-eligible release in Kinshasa? Anyway, it’s near the top of my Netflix queue...However, it’s CHAD’s “A Screaming Man” that shocked me by not being submitted. Mahamat-Saleh Haroun is impoverished Chad’s only film director and his “Abouna” was submitted in 2002. Since then, he has made two much more-acclaimed films including “A Screaming Man”, which won the Jury Prize in Cannes in 2010, and I can confirm it did get a local release in N’Djamena’s only cinema in January 2011. Chad is not likely to ever have a more likely contender. Oh well.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Three or four.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Six- Afrikaans (South Africa), Arabic (Egypt), French (Canada + Morocco), Portuguese (Brazil), Samoan (New Zealand) and Spanish (the other ten). I’ve heard that the South African film almost contained too much English to qualify.

Highest profile film: Two popular Latin American thrillers- Mexico’s beauty queen thriller, “Miss Bala” and Brazil’s box-office smash sequel “Tropa de Elite 2”.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Canada, as usual.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Uruguay’s low-budget horror movie “The Quiet House”.

Number of Comedies: The Dominican Republic sent in a comedy-drama, “Love Child”

Number of Animated Films or Documentaries: Colombia is said to have seriously considered an animated documentary, “Little Voices”, but ultimately passed it over.

Number of Horror Films: One straightforward horror film, “The Quiet House” from Uruguay.

Oscar History: New Zealand has entered the race for the first time, although the film really should be representing its native Samoa, instead of the Kiwis who funded it.

None of these directors have ever been nominated for an Oscar before but two- Venezuela’s Alejandro Bellame Palacios (“The Color of Fame”) and Chile’s Andres Wood (“Machuca”) have represented their countries in the Oscar race once before. Wood is said to have come close to a nomination.

Argentina, Canada and South Africa have all won the award at least once before, while Brazil and Mexico have been nominated on multiple occasions. Cuba, Peru and Puerto Rico have one Oscar nomination each, while the others (Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Morocco, Uruguay and Venezuela) are awaiting their first official Oscar nomination. Uruguay was nominated and disqualified in 1993 after it was discovered the film was actually wholly Argentine. The Egyptians have been sending movies without luck since 1957, holding the record (tied with Portugal) of the most submissions without an Oscar nod.

Number of Female Directors: Two- the Dominican Republic’s Leticia Tonos and Puerto Rico’s Sonia Fritz, who was disqualified.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Argentina’s Fernando Spiner is the oldest at 53….. 28-year old Oliver Hermanus of South Africa is by far the youngest director in the entire competition this year , and it’s not even his film debut!

Familiar Faces: There really aren’t many familiar faces at all...French movie star Sami Bouajila, who plays the title lead in Morocco’s “Omar Killed Me”, is about as famous as it gets...I’m a fan of Canadian actress Danielle Proulx (the mom in “C.R.A.Z.Y.”) who co-stars in “Monsieur Lazhar"...And Edward James Olmos and Tony Plana (“Ugly Betty”) co-star in the disqualified submission from Puerto Rico.

Tough Choices: Small countries like Chile and Morocco had really great film years that made it difficult to choose just one film. Perhaps the highest-profile film to miss the Oscar race this year was Chile's "Post-Mortem" (Venice 2010) about a morgue attendant searching for a woman during the Pinochet era. Morocco's incest drama "Pegasus" won Best Picture at FESPACO in Burkina Faso, but lost the Oscar nod to majority French drama "Omar Killed Me" (a blow to local filmmakers, but also a wise move if they want to be nominated)

Argentina's Oscar winner Juan Jose Campanella made an inquiry directly to AMPAS to ask that "El Estudiante" be certified as eligible to rep Argentina (there was some technical issue that I didn't understand) and AMPAS said okay, leading many to believe that it would be selected over the other favorite, "Chinese Takeaway". Eventually both lost in a shock vote to unheralded western "Aballay". ("Chinese Takeaway" got sent to the Goyas (where it was nominated) AND won Best Picture over the other two at the Argentine Oscars in December. Cuba's "Ticket to Paradise" also got sent to the Goyas.

Egypt chose Cairo winner "Lust" over three other contenders including Omar Sharif's expensive "The Traveller", "Hawi" and my prediction, sexual harassment drama "Cairo 678".

Mexico's expensive "El Baile de San Juan" seemed like a good contender...until it opened to bad reviews.

Also out of luck this year: "Cafe de Flore" from Canada (trailer looks so great!), animated war documentary "Little Voices" from Colombia, "The Kid Who Lies" (Berlin) from Venezuela.

Controversies and Changes: The biggest controversy was the fact that AMPAS all of a sudden decided that Puerto Rican filmmakers don't deserve Oscar nominations. See above.

The DOMINICAN REPUBLIC was briefly disqualified when it was announced its Oscar committee hadn't been submitted to AMPAS in advance (they hadn't entered the competition in 16 years), but that was eventually resolved.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I got Colombia, Peru, Puerto Rico, South Africa and Venezuela, plus I predicted “The Orator” would get sent by Samoa upon its release. I came really close with Brazil and Mexico...kicking myself for not getting those two easy ones...

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen Uruguay’s “La Casa Muda” but I’m really looking forward to seeing SOUTH AFRICA's acclaimed LGBT drama “Beauty”.

Last year's race: Last year, these three regions sent 16 films and they took four spots on the nine-film shortlist. I managed to see the ones from Algeria, Argentina, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Nicaragua, Peru, South Africa and Venezuela. PERU's “Contracorriente” was far and away the best one, while Argentina and Colombia were the worst.

TOMORROW: Final Predictions for the 9-film shortlist

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Asia (16 Films)

Oscar has little taste for Asia, but many people are saying this could be their year! With IRAN's engrossing drama "A Separation" the deserved frontrunner for the award, films from CHINA, ISRAEL, JAPAN, LEBANON and TURKEY are also being talked about for potential nominations....In reality, I think only two of these have a good chance (see below) as does the dark horse from HONG KONG....But in a relatively weak year, it's anybody's game.

NO CHANCE IN HELL:
16. KAZAKHSTAN- "Returning to the A"
15. INDONESIA- "Under the Protection of the Ka'bah"
14. THAILAND- "Kon Khon"
13. SINGAPORE- "Tatsumi"

Better luck next year to four of my favorite countries...Once again, I applaud all of them for entering the competition (especially Singapore, which makes a lot of fun films and which is returning to the competition after a two-year absence) and getting their films seen in Hollywood.

INDONESIA and THAILAND have chosen visually rich period dramas that did not get particularly good reviews at home. In fact, both have been dismissed as little more than soap operas..."Under the Protection of the Ka'bah" is based on an acclaimed novel and set in 1920s Sumatra. With a budget of nearly 3 million US dollars (high by local standards), "Ka'bah" took nearly three years to make. It sounds impressive on paper but this religious melodrama about a poor boy who falls in love with a rich girl and dreams of a pilgrimage to Mecca (also a theme in the Indian submission) got mixed reviews even in Indonesia. THAILAND (where I used to live) has chosen a film set in the 1960s focusing on the rivalry of two traditional "khon" dance troupes. "Kon Khon" was a box-office flop in Thailand and got mixed reviews. Even the Ministry of Culture is under no illusions about the film's Oscar chances, saying that it was selected for its ability to promote Thai culture through cinema (which it does through lovely performances of Thai "khon" dance). For a good review of Thailand's submissions over the years see the following article from CNN. http://www.cnngo.com/bangkok/life/thailands-18-oscar-picks-its-all-about-culture-260964

KAZAKHSTAN 's film, a 3D action movie about a documentary film crew getting into trouble in modern-day Afghanistan, looks like a total mess. The trailer looks like a straight-to-video 80s action movie and I don't think it has played at a single international film festival. The Kazakhs usually send good movies to the competition and expect them to be in the running next year with expensive period epic "Myn Bala".

Unlike the other three, SINGAPORE's film has actually managed to get good reviews...However, it doesn't pass the mainstream test. A Japanese-language homage to an obscure Japanese comic book artist, this graphic animated film recreates scenes from Yoshihiro Tatsumi's life as well as some of his most disturbing stories. I look forward to seeing it (more so than the other three) but it's simply too weird and not what Oscar goes for....

ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY


12. TAIWAN- "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow"
11. VIETNAM- "The Prince and the Pagoda Boy"
10. PHILIPPINES- "The Woman in the Septic Tank"
9. KOREA- "The Front Line"

The Asian countries love to send in historical epics, which is what KOREA, TAIWAN and VIETNAM have done this year. Historical epics are always risky...On the one hand, they tend to have big budgets and impressive technical features...On the other, they often depend on knowing local history and, in Asia especially, often double as action movies with lots of blood and battlefield scenes.

TAIWAN's "Seediq Bale: Warriors of the Rainbow" is sure to alienate Oscar voters with its 4-hour, 25-minute running time and its rampant bloody beheadings. While it was a big hit in its native Taiwan, this film about aboriginal groups fighting against cultural annihilation during the early 20th century Japanese occupation of the island has not been warmly embraced by Western critics. The Hollywood Reporter complimented the period look, but said that non-stop fighting was "tedious" (and they screened an abridged 2 1/2 hour version!!)

VIETNAM's "Prince and the Pagoda Boy" (originally called "Thang Long Aspiration") is about a 9th century battle over the royal succession, filled with lovely costumes and lots of martial arts fighting. The Vietnamese are clearly trying to emulate recent Chinese period epics. There's very little information on the film online but the one Western review I saw was largely negative.

SOUTH KOREA has a better shot with "The Front Line", a box-office hit drama about the closing days of the Korean War when both North and South were trying to make last-minute territorial gains in anticipation of a permanent ceasefire. I just bought it on ebay and am now waiting for it to arrive. Oscar has never gone for Korean films before (not even the great Korean War drama "Taegukgi"), and I think this film will strike Oscar voters as little more than a well-done action movie...not an Oscar nominee.

THE PHILIPPINES haven't chosen an epic at all...They've chosen another comedy (their third in six years), this one lampooning independent filmmaking in the Philippines. "The Woman in the Septic Tank" is a tongue-in-cheek movie about Filipino producers trying to make an Oscar-winning picture. To do that, they enlist an A-list actress (Eugene Domingo, playing a parody of herself) to play an impoverished Filipino woman whose life is falling apart, which indeed is what most Filipino films on the Film Fest circuit tend to be about! The film was a big hit and is said to be very clever, but probably has too much silliness and too many in-jokes to make a dent here. Hopefully it will entertain the committee....I think it looks great!

FAIRLY DARK HORSES-

8. INDIA- "Abu, Son of Adam"
7. TURKEY- "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia"
6. JAPAN- "Postcard"
5. LEBANON- "Where Do We Go Now?"

All of these films will have their supporters, but lack a fundamental element in getting to the next round. From two of the Middle East's most cosmopolitan centers, LEBANON and TURKEY are often cited as among this year's favorites. Nuri Bilge Ceylan's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" won the Jury Prize at Cannes, and Ceylan's "Three Monkeys" was shortlisted three years ago. Nadine Labaki's "Where Do We Go Now" won the People's Choice Award in Toronto, joining a series of films that went on to win Best Foreign Film (Antonia's Line, Life is Beautiful, Crouching Tiger and Tsotsi) and even Best Picture (American Beauty, King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire).

I think both films face an uphill battle....LEBANON's film is a comedy-drama based on the Lysistrata about Christian and Muslim women using sex to control their menfolk in a bitterly sectarian town. Toronto award notwithstanding, "Where" has actually gotten fairly unspectacular reviews, with some questioning whether it truly deserved the prize. It may be too lightweight although, as I keep saying, it's a weak year for foreign film. TURKEY's "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" is wowing auteur critics, but this slow, plotless film about a team looking for a corpse in rural Turkey is said to be a hard slog to get through. The Hollywood Reporter jokes that it takes 90 minutes before the film has its first plot point. The film sounds just awful (I hated Ceylan's "Distant", although "3 Monkeys" was better) but it does have a small chance of being selected by the Elite Committee (which they probably did with "Three Monkeys"). A real dark horse.

The films from INDIA and JAPAN have been well-received at home, but have not won any major awards outside their home countries. Both are said to be good films but lack the gravitas to advance to the next round. INDIA's "Abu, Son of Adam" is about a poor, elderly Muslim couple from Kerala (Southwest India) who dream of making a pilgrimage to Mecca before they die. JAPAN's "Postcard" is a semi-autobiographical film set in post-World War II Japan, when a soldier returns to his hometown to deliver a letter to the wife of a late soldier. Both films have wonderful backstories...."Abu" is a low-budget film that managed to beat hundreds of big-budget Hindi-language blockbusters to win Best Picture at the National Film Awards and grab the country's Oscar nod..."Postcard" is directed by a 99-year old respected director (and WWII veteran) who has said this will be his final film. In the end, both films are said to be overly sentimental (is that good or bad with the large committee) and appeal to local tastes and history. I simply don't have faith they can make it to the next round.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES:

4. HONG KONG- "A Simple Life"
3. ISRAEL- "Footnote"
2. CHINA- "Flowers of War"

I think that at least one of these films will be able to climb above the pack and join the Iranians on the shortlist...But which one? CHINA's 90 million dollar blockbuster "The Flowers of War" about the Rape of Nanjing from the perspective of an American man, looks great and is directed by Zhang Yimou. It's also one of only two Oscar submissions to get a Golden Globe nomination, which are a pretty good pre-cursor (although not all the Oscar submissions were eligible). Add to that its WWII plotline and its comforting amount (40%) of English dialogue, and the film looks like a good bet. Having said that, US reviews for "War" have been decidely mixed. I've predicted that Chinese "spectacle" would impress the Oscar committee before ("Curse of the Golden Flower", "Aftershock") but have been wrong every time. I still think "Flowers" has a good shot, but it could come in tenth place due to....

ISRAEL. The Israelis have done exceptionally well in recent years with an impressive three back-to-back nominations from 2008-2010. "Footnote", is the story of a bitter father-son rivalry in the world of Jewish Talmudic religious studies. It won Best Screenplay at Cannes, and has been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics. "Footnote" really does not sound like an exciting film, but reviews have been fairly strong overall. Howeverm, the film definitely has detractors who point out that the extremely esoteric subject matter will make the film a hard sell to many viewers. I think Israel may well be the "bubble" film fighting for 9th or 10th place.

No director from HONG KONG has ever been nominated in this category. Both of Hong Kong's Foreign Oscar nominations were films made by Mainland Chinese directors (Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige) working in Mainland China. Starring two of Hong Kong's most well-regarded actors, "A Simple Life" is the story of the lifelong relationship between a man (Andy Lau) and his aging "a-mah" (nanny; Deannie Yip). Despite winning Best Actress in Venice, this "small" film has not been talked about very much, but I think it has an excellent chance to appeal to the larger Oscar committee. Reviews have been overwhelmingly positive (although not universally excellent) and this is the sort of sentimental film that Oscar usually goes for. Good luck to Hong Kong.

1. IRAN- "Nader & Simin: A Separation"

For all the strategizing and campaigning, the best way to get nominated for an Oscar is still to make a great film that everybody recognizes is a great film. Asghar Farhadi has done that with "A Separation".

I won't gush about the film because so many people have said it all already. The film is a mystery, a thriller, a family drama, a love story gone wrong and, perhaps most importantly, a window into modern Iranian life. Just go and see "A Separation", and let's hope it gets nominated for Best Screenplay as well. I don't believe a film can ever be a lock for the win (maybe "Crouching Tiger", which charmed the US in a very weak year for foreign films), but if the large committee ignores it (and they've ignored great films before), the elite committee will be sure to save it. It's on the Shortlist.

On a sidenote, it will be interesting to see if the Iranians try to withdraw "A Separation" if Israel is nominated alongside it...I know they have rules in the Olympics about not competing directly against Israel. Anyway, it won't matter because AMPAS will surely refuse to withdraw the film (CHINA tried unsuccessfully to withdraw "Ju Dou" two decades ago) and "Separation" will likely win.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 31

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: None that I'm aware of....

Number of countries opting out: 15, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and Palestine. The others have only ever submitted once or twice in Oscar history (Bhutan, Cambodia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan) or haven't submitted in over two decades (Kuwait and Pakistan).

The most surprising absentee from Asia is clearly BANGLADESH, which has sent films for six years in a row, and which had two major releases this year ("Runway" and "Guerilla") that could have represented the country with honor. Not sure why they skipped....I also expected that either IRAQ would send "Qarantina" or JORDAN would send "Fish Above Sea Level". I had also hoped that CAMBODIA ("Lost Loves") and PAKISTAN ("Bol") would return after long absences, but apparently there's nobody there interested in forming a committee and filling out the paperwork. Expect the Palestinians to be back in contention next year with "Habibie".

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Four strong films and three outside dark horses.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 15 in 16 films- Arabic, Cantonese, Farsi, Filipino, Hebrew, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Malayalam, Mandarin, Russian, Seediq, Thai, Turkish, Vietnamese. Interestingly, Japanese is the most-represented language (Japan, Singapore and half of Taiwan's film). China's film is roughly 45% in English.

Highest profile film: It's a toss-up between Zhang Yimou's "Flowers of War", starring Christian Bale (China) and "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran), which has been receiving accolades worldwide, including the Golden Bear in Berlin.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Iran.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Kazakhstan's 3D action movie, "Returning to the A"

Number of Comedies: Two. Lebanon and the Philippines

Number of Animated Films: One, from Singapore.

Number of Documentaries or Horror Films: None, although Taiwan's features a whole lot of realistic beheading.

Oscar History: Two Oscar nominees are in the mix- China's Zhang Yimou has been nominated for an Oscar three times ("Hero" and "Ju Dou", representing China and "Raise the Red Lantern", representing Hong Kong), plus four other times in which he was chosen to rep China.....And Israel's Joseph Cedar, who is representing Israel for the fourth time, including one nomination for "Beaufort".

Six other directors have represented their countries in the Oscar race before- Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey, "Distant" and the shortlisted "Three Monkeys"), Asghar Farhadi (Iran, "About Elly"), Ann Hui (Hong Kong, "Ordinary Heroes", "Summer Snow"), Eric Khoo (Singapore, "My Magic, the disqualified "Be With Me") Nadine Labaki (Lebanon, "Caramel") and Wei Te-Sheng (Taiwan, "Cape No. 7)

Japan and Taiwan are the only countries to have won a Foreign Oscar award. China, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have all been nominated (though the HK nominees were for Mainland China productions), and Turkey has made the 9-film shortlist once before. The other seven, including Korea and the Philippines which have sent films for decades, have had no luck so far.

Number of Female Directors: Two- Hong Kong's Ann Hui and Lebanon's Nadine Labaki.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Japan's Kaneto Shindo will celebrate his 100th birthday in April, likely making him the oldest director EVER in this competition (Portugal's Manoel de Oliveira and his "Belle Toujours" were selected when he was a mere 98). He says "Postcard" will be his last film. There are no really young Asian directors in the mix....Youngest is South Korea's Jang Hun, who is 36.

Familiar Faces: Oscar-winning actor Christian Bale, who plays the lead role in China's "Flowers of War", is obviously the biggest name in the competition, with Hong Kong superstar Andy Lau ("A Simple Life") a distant second. "Flowers" co-stars Paul Schneider (Parks & Recreation), while "Simple Life" features cameos by Sammo Hung and Anthony Wong.

The cast of Japan's "Postcard" may not be well-known, but its five leading cast members have accumulated 33 Japanese Oscar nominations for acting.

Lior Ashkenazi (Israel), Sorapong Chatree (Thailand), Eugene Domingo (Philippines), Vivian Hsu (Taiwan), Nadine Labaki (Lebanon), Shin Ha-kyun (Korea) and Deannie Yip (Hong Kong) are fairly well-known in their respective countries.

Tough Choices: "The Outrage" from Thailand apparently was close to being chosen, but the Thais didn't want to choose a remake (of Oscar winner "Rashomon") over an original film.

Other films that appear to have just missed the cut included "Restoration" (Israel), "Dhobi Ghat: Mumbai Diaries" (India), "The Yellow Sea" (South Korea), which were all officially shortlisted. Also, "Let the Bullets Fly" (China), "1911" (Hong Kong) and "Norwegian Wood" (Japan).

Controversies and Changes: Some grumbled that "Flowers of War" was nearly 50% in English, making it a questionable pick for "Best Foreign Language Film", but most people seem satisfied since it is mostly in Chinese.

There potentially could have been a controversy from Iran..."Nader & Simin: A Separation" was originally announced by Iranian news agencies as the country's Oscar nominee, but these stories were deleted from the web a few days later and a "shortlist" of films was announced, leading some to believe that the controversial film by a director who has criticized the government was going to be replaced by a less politically sensitive choice. In the end, the Iranians selected "A Separation" anyway and the country will likely benefit by grabbing their first Oscar!

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 5- Indonesia, Iran, Lebanon, Singapore and Taiwan. I predicted the films from India, Israel, Korea, Turkey and Vietnam as alternates. China and Hong Kong didn't exactly play fair, since they chose films that opened in late 2011, but which had one-week qualifying runs specifically to compete for an Oscar....

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the brilliant "Nader & Simin: A Separation" (Iran; A), but I'm dying to see "The Woman in the Septic Tank" (Philippines) based on the hilarious trailer.

Last year's race: I saw 13 of last year's 17 Asian nominees....Japan's brilliant "Confessions" was without a doubt the best, while Thailand's Cannes-winning mess "Uncle Boonmee" was the worst one I saw....I'll see a fourteenth- Turkey's "Bal"- soon.

NEXT UP: The 16 films from the Rest of the World, namely The Americas, Africa and Oceania.

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Eastern Europe (16 Films)

After two weeks travelling abroad, here are my predictions for the films from Eastern Europe.

The Eastern Europeans have recently had a very poor record in this category. Since their last win in 2001 (Bosnia's "No Man's Land"), they have received only three nominations in the following nine years (for "Katyn", "12" and "Zelary") and their prospects aren't much better this year, although Poland should manage to squeak onto the final list.

Perhaps of interest- three of the films are in Black and White....

ELIMINATED EARLY
16. SLOVENIA- “Circus Fantasticus”

Even if were not for the error of a Slovenian secretary (He or she was apparently a new employee and forgot to send the film to AMPAS headquarters in Los Angeles after the Slovenians selected the film”), “Circus Fantasticus” (aka “Silent Sonata”) would not have been nominated for an Oscar. The film is an abstract drama with no dialogue, about a travelling circus that appears out of nowhere in an unnamed wartorn country, and seeks shelter with a local Balkan family whose mother has just been killed in a battle. It’s likeable enough as an anti-war film, but out of its league here. Still, I wonder if that secretary still has his/her job!

NO CHANCE IN HELL:


15. ALBANIA- "Amnesty"
14. ESTONIA- "Letters to Angel"
13. MACEDONIA- "Punk's Not Dead"
12. CROATIA- "72 Days"

These four low-profile films have won few major awards and have not received the kindest reviews....ALBANIA's "Amnesty" was not even the country's first choice for the Albanian Oscar nod (See Controversies), and this film about a man and woman who connect sexually while visiting their respective spouses in jail is said to be fairly slow, uninvolving and inconsequential. ESTONIA's "Letters to Angel" is about an Estonian convert to Islam who returns to his country to search for his daughters, years after deserting during the Soviet war. This surreal, dream-like film apparently has no linear plot line that makes sense, and the film has not played at a single major Film Festival. The former Yugoslav republics of CROATIA and MACEDONIA have both sent mean-spirited black comedies about life in the post-war era. CROATIA's "72 Days" is about a family of Croatian Serbs who scheme to continue getting pension checks despite their elderly family member's death. Sounds really good, but reviews have been decidedly mixed. The Macedonians were the surprise winners of Karlovy Vary with "Punk's Not Dead", about a racist, foul-mouthed, over-the-hill Macedonian punk band who reunite for one last gig in a (gasp!) ethnic Albanian region of the country. It's supposed to be earthy and entertaining, but with low production values and few Oscar attributes. None of these films will have any shot at the Oscar.


OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:


11. SERBIA- "Montevideo, God Bless You!"
10. LITHUANIA- "Back to Your Arms"
9. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Alois Nebel"
8. ROMANIA- "Morgen"

The CZECH REPUBLIC is usually a major contender in this category, but they dashed their chances by dumping a series of well-regarded films for a strange B&W cartoon called "Alois Nebel", based on a series of graphic novels. "Alois Nebel" is about a train dispatcher in Communist Czechoslovakia who witnessed severe abuses during WWII. I know the Czechs are very proud of their tradition of animation, but this uncomfortable film may be too unpleasant to watch AND depend too much on national history, while also turning off those who feel animated films don't belong here. The film is also lobbying for a Best Animated Film Oscar nod.

ROMANIA and SERBIA haven't been nominated but they're rumored to have come very close....This year, however, I don't fancy their chances. SERBIA' feel-good patriotic comedy, "Montevideo, God Bless You!" about the 1930 World Cup was a box-office smash in its home country, but reviews overseas haven't been as kind....ROMANIA's "Morgen", a topical drama about a rural couple who decide to help an illegal Turkish immigrant escape to Europe, has a better shot, but Romania has failed to be nominated for much bigger and much more acclaimed films....I think "Morgen" will be far too quiet to qualify.

These three regional powers are joined in this tier by the LITHUANIAns, who have opted for the winner of their 2011 National Film Awards (the Silver Cranes), "Back to Your Arms". There's very little information about this film online except that it's based on a true story which concerns a father and daughter separated in World War II and divided by the Iron Curtain, who then attempt to meet up in 1961 Berlin. The film has not "popped" and should be considered a long shot despite its weighty subject matter.

SMALL CHANCE:



7. HUNGARY- "The Turin Horse"
6. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Belvedere"
5. SLOVAKIA- "Gypsy"
4. GEORGIA- "Chantrapas"

Underdogs Bosnia, Georgia and Slovakia have all selected well-received films that are probably going to get overlooked this year. From the Balkans comes "Belvedere" from BOSNIA, a sad film about women who continue to look for information on male relatives (sons, brothers, husbands) who were killed in the Srebenica massacre, years after the conflict. From the Caucasus comes "Chantrapas" (Russian for "good-for-nothing"), a breezy French-language film about a Georgian filmmaker's efforts to deal with political and commercial pressures in his career, ranging from Soviet-era censorship in his native Georgia, to capitalist pressure for box-office success in his adopted France. From the Tatras of Eastern Slovakia comes "Gypsy", a Romany-language drama representing SLOVAKIA. The film is a gypsy take on "Hamlet", combining a teen's coming-of-age story with an inside look at Roma culture, political prejudices, violence, morality and fatherly ghosts.

Reviews for Bosnia's heart-wrenching film note that it is a difficult one to watch...I've seen the Slovak film and it's a very good one, though not a likely nominee.....Georgia's ode to filmmaking is likely to appeal to the Oscar committee, though nobody seems to say it's the best film of the year.

As for HUNGARY and their lumbering "Turin Horse", I think that it would place dead last if the regular committee was voting. Two and a half hours of excrutiatingly slow B&W footage of peasant misery (I've heard twenty minutes is spent on boiling potatoes), this is not a mainstream film, and this does not have mainstream appeal. I'm putting it at #7 on the off chance that the Elite Committee likes it....but I doubt it.

DARK HORSES:

3. BULGARIA- "Tilt"
2. RUSSIA- "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel"

Both of these films would represent a major surprise if they were shortlisted, but for very different reasons. RUSSIA's "Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel" (which, confusingly, is actually the third film in the "Burnt by the Sun" series) was a critical and financial failure in its native Russia, but I think it was not such a foolish choice. Nikita Mikhalkov has never failed to make the shortlist before, and the big-budget war drama is technically impressive, which will appeal to some of the technical members of the committee. Many committee voters will probably fondly remember the first film, which won in 1995 (though they may struggle to fill in the gaps by missing the second film, "Burnt by the Sun 2: Exodus") and the World War II theme is always a Foreign Film favorite. In the end, I think "Burnt" will fail to make the cut, but it's not an automatic out, despite its critical drubbing.

As for BULGARIA, "Tilt" is a very different animal....A relatively obscure, somewhat low-budget teen feature set against the backdrop of the fall of Communism in the early 1990s, "Tilt" is often compared to the Shakespearean Romeo & Juliet. The film has quietly been making a name for itself and most people really do seem to like the film. I don't really think "Tilt" will make the shortlist, but I have a feeling it will place fairly well in the rankings.

GOOD SHOT:



1. POLAND- "In Darkness"

Realistically speaking, POLAND is probably the only Eastern European country that can expect to be on January's 9-film shortlist. Agnieszka Holland has a strong record with Oscar and the film practically shouts Oscar nominee with its plot featuring 1- World War II, 2- Jewish characters and 3- cute children in peril. "In Darkness" is a dark, heavy drama about a self-interested Catholic rogue who ends up helping Jews who are trying to escape Nazi deportations by hiding in the sewers of Lviv (now in Ukraine, but then part of Poland). Lots of moral dilemmas, conflicted characters and well-crafted cinematography will probably push this film to the next round.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 16

Number of countries disqualified: Slovenia, which forgot to actually send their official submission to Los Angeles.

Number of countries opting out: 5- ARMENIA, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Latvia and Ukraine...UKRAINE actually convened an Oscar selection committee, but determined that no film met all of the AMPAS requirements (not sure why Cannes feature “You My Joy” wasn’t eligible). AZERBAIJAN and LATVIA sent films last year and had some definite possibilities (especially “Through the Eyes of a Ghost”, by Rustam Ibragimbekov who co-wrote three foreign Oscar nominees, and Latvia’s baity WWII film “Three to Dance”), so not sure why they aren’t participating. Isolated BELARUS hasn’t submitted a film since 1996.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Very few. I’d say four and that’s being very generous.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13 primary languages- Albanian, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, French, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Romany, Russian, Serbo-Croatian, with a smattering of Turkish (in the Romanian film), German, Ukrainian and Yiddish (all Poland), Georgian and Slovak. The Slovenian film has no dialogue.

Highest profile film: Probably Russia’s highly touted flop “Burnt by the Sun 2: Citadel”, which is famous for its lack of success and for being the second sequel to the 1995 Oscar winner. Hungary’s “Turin Horse” and Poland’s “In Darkness” are most famous based on their actual reviews, while Estonia's film has virtually no information online whatsoever.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Poland.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Albania, which was forced to send its second-place film.

Number of Comedies: Three from the former Yugoslavia- Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia.

Number of Animated Films: One, from the Czech Republic.

Number of Documentaries or Horror Films: None.

Oscar History: Two Oscar nominees are in the mix- Poland’s Agnieszka Holland has been nominated twice- once for Best Foreign Film (representing West Germany) for “Angry Harvest” at the 1986 Oscars and once for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 1992 Oscars for “Europa Europa”. Nikita Mikhalkov was nominated for three Foreign Language Film Oscars in 1993, 1995 and 2008, winning on his second try for “Burnt by the Sun”.

Martin Sulik is representing his country for the sixth time after Oscar runs in 1993, 1995, 1997 2000 and 2005. Disqualified entrant Janez Burger from Slovenia previously represented his country in 2005 for “The Ruins”.

Four countries have won the Oscar nominations for their countries (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia) while three others have been nominated (Georgia, Macedonia and Poland) and two others (Bulgaria and Serbia) have been short-listed. Croatia, Serbia and Slovakia have never been nominated since becoming independent, but their films have been nominated as part of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Albania, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia and, surprisingly, Romania have had no luck yet with Oscar.

Number of Female Directors: Only one...Poland’s Agnieszka Holland.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: France-based Georgian director Otar Iosseliani is 77, while Romania’s Marian Crisan is 35.

Familiar Faces: Very few that would be familiar to Western audiences...Dedicated film viewers are most likely to recognize actor Rade Šerbedžija (Mission Impossible 2, Batman Begins) who stars in his son’s “72 Days”, although there’s also German actor Benno Fürmann in “In Darkness” plus director Nikita Mikhalkov who co-stars in his own “Burnt by the 2”.

Tough Choices: I thought the 2012 winner for Best Foreign Language Film would be the Czech Republic’s critically acclaimed drama “Lidice”, but the Czechs prevented that from happening when they selected peculiar adult cartoon “Alois Nebel” instead...Also eliminated in the preliminaries: “Identity Card” from Czech Republic, “The House” from Slovakia (Berlin), “Medal of Honor” from Romania and “Elena” from Russia.

Controversies and Changes: Eastern Europe provided the two biggest controversies of the year.

ALBANIA initially selected “The Forgiveness of Blood”, a film in Albanian, shot in Albania with an American director (Joshua Marston), and a mixed American and Albanian crew. It was no surprise that AMPAS disqualified “Blood”; they did the same thing to Marston’s similarly filmed “Maria, Full of Grace”, which Colombia selected in 2004. AMPAS is pretty resolute that “Best Foreign Language Film” means the film must be both “Foreign” (i.e., not American) and in a “Foreign Language” (i.e., not in English). I think it’s fair to exclude English-language films (subtitled movies are definitely a different animal than British, Canadian and Australian films in English...I would hate to see this category dominated by “King’s Speech”, “Moulin Rouge” and “Lord of the Rings”, even if they are good films!) but any foreign-language film should be eligible, even if the director does happen to have a US passport. In fact, a number of international directors are American citizens, Green Card holders, or otherwise based in the U.S., so this is really unfair. The worst part is that it was rival director Buraj Alimani who reportedly complained to the Academy that "Blood" should be barred from the category. Alimani is a sore loser who wanted his own film to be selected (his “Amnesty” was the runner-up and is now representing Albania), at the expense of the hard work of the Albanian actors and crew of the film that an impartial jury of Albanian filmmakers selected as the best Albanian film of the year. Marston himself said it best: ““I don't understand why the academy is in the business of adjudicating the citizenship of a film. Why can’t the submitting countries be given the authority and autonomy to decide for themselves what films best represent them? Why would it be so threatening to the process of the academy to let that happen?”

RUSSIA also caused controversy when they selected a critically lambasted flop over two more acclaimed films. The selection of "Burnt by the Sun 2: Ctadel" over "Elena" (winner, Un Certain Regard, Cannes 2001) and "Faust" (winner, Golden Lion, Venice) was rumored to be strongly influenced by director Nikita Mikhalkov's connections within the selection committee. The President of the Committee refused to sign the decision and called for Mikhalkov to withdraw his film from consideration so that a better regarded film could take the Russian spot. Others also claimed that it was ridiculous to choose a sequel that depended so much on seeing the previous film (even Oscar voters who remember the 1995 winner "Burnt by the Sun" probably won't have seen the second film in the series, 2010's "Burnt by the Sun 2: Exodus"). I actually think that the high production values of "Burnt" mean it's not such a bad choice overall, but the reasons why it was chosen seem surely politically influenced.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 7- ALBANIA, ESTONIA, HUNGARY, LITHUANIA, MACEDONIA, SLOVAKIA and SLOVENIA, plus I picked Croatia’s film last year when I thought it was eligible. Bonus points for Albania, since I predicted they would try to send “Forgiveness of Blood” but end up sending “Amnesty”. CZECH REPUBLIC was the only country that took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the Slovak (B+) and Slovene (B-) films, but I’m most excited to see Croatian black comedy ”72 Days”.

Last year's race: I saw 8 of last year’s 17 contenders, and the best was without a doubt Georgia’s “Street Days”, followed by Albania’s “East West East”. Estonia’s “St. Tony” was one of the worst films I saw last year, while Bulgaria and Poland weren’t much better.

Next up (after the holidays): the 16 films from Asia.

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Western Europe (17 Films)

Well, here is the first batch of predictions where we look at the 17 films from Western Europe. The Western Europeans used to dominate this category, but they have lost momentum in recent years as films from Latin America and the Middle East have been grabbing a growing number of spots.

Despite the 65 films in competition, I think this will be a rather weak year, especially for Europe.


NO CHANCE-

17. GREECE- “Attenberg”
16. SWITZERLAND- “Summer Games”
15. ITALY- “Terraferma”
14. PORTUGAL- “Jose and Pilar”
13. UK- “Patagonia”

Middling reviews will doom the two Italian-language films (from Italy and Switzerland) to oblivion, the UK’s film lacks “oomph”, Portugal’s is the wrong genre, while Greece’s film is too weird and divisive (although I said last year, when they DID get nominated!).
GREECE's “Attenberg” is an experimental black comedy that involves a strange young adult girl experimenting with kissing and making animal noises. The film has all of the quirkiness of last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth” without that film’s (inexplicable) good reviews. Not everybody dislikes “Attenberg”, but a lot of people do, and this will keep this film at the bottom of the charts this year.
“Patagonia”, “Summer Games” and “Terraferma” simply don’t have good enough reviews to advance to the next round. Switzerland's “Summer Games” was the surprise winner of the Swiss Oscar competition, which takes into account votes from the public. It’s a dark drama about parents and their teenaged children on a holiday by the sea. A disturbing first hour (which I’ve heard includes the killing of an animal) apparently turns off a lot of viewers before an eventual cathartic ending, but by then it may be too late. It’s also by far the lowest-profile and most obscure film from Western Europe this year, making it likely to get lost in the shuffle. Italy's “Terraferma” is a baity film about illegal African immigrants trying to make it to Europe, and an Italian family who may or may not try to assist them. However, reviews have been surprisingly poor and no one seems to like the movie. The UK's “Patagonia”, a quirky film that features two stories about cross-cultural connections in Wales and Argentina (an old Argentinian woman returns to her ancestral village in Wales...Welsh tourists visit Argentina) has slightly better reviews, but most people prefer one story over another and though it's a good film they say it's also uneven, overlong and out of its league here.
“Jose and Pilar” (PORTUGAL), has actually gotten excellent reviews, but its subject matter- a renowned Portuguese Nobel Laureate and author- is not likely to resonate as much with an Oscar committee that is looking for high drama and strong production values (remember...a lot of voters come from the technical branches...), and they(like me...) may not be familiar with Jose Saramago and his wife. Still, it’s said to be an accomplished documentary (though it failed to make the AMPAS documentary shortlist).



UNLIKELY

12. DENMARK- “Superclasico”
11. ICELAND- “Volcano”
10. BELGIUM- “Bullhead”
9. SPAIN- “Black Bread”
All four of these films are going to have an uphill climb to an Oscar nod. Returning champion Denmark shocked Oscar prognosticators by choosing a fluffy comedy about a schlub and his teenaged son going to visit his ex-wife in Buenos Aires (who has run off with a hot, young football player). It’s all supposed to be very entertaining, but not much more than that. It’s hoping for an “Everybody Famous”/”Simple Simon” slot on the shortlist.
The other three films are anything but comedies...I’ve seen “Bullhead” (which has the best reviews of the four) but I found this violent noirish and occasionally confusing thriller about provincial Belgians involved with selling hormone drugs to fatten cattle to be pretty inconsequential, although there are clearly many who disagree with me. In the end, I kind of felt like “so what?” Iceland’s “Volcano” seems too downbeat and minimalist to succeed here. It’s the story of an elderly retiree, estranged from his children, whose life is turned upside down when his wife falls ill. This Cannes drama is perhaps best-known for its elderly actors in sex scenes, but I don't see that as helping the film much!
As for “Black Bread” from Oscar powerhouse Spain, the film is said to be an exceptionally accomplished film, but also very confusing to those of us who are not familiar with the post-Civil War era in Spain. The film is a murder mystery/war drama/children’s story/morality tale about a child from the losing side of the Civil War whose father is accused of murder after his son finds a corpse. Oscar loves kids, loves Spain and loves war, but I fear “Bread” may miss out due to context.


DARK HORSES

8. IRELAND- “As If I Was Not There”
7. SWEDEN- “Beyond”
6. GERMANY- “Pina”
5. NORWAY- “Happy, Happy”
All of these films have a chance at grabbing at one of the lower rungs of the nine-film shortlist, but in the end I think that all of them will miss out.
Ireland’s “As If I Was Not There”, is a wrenching film set in Bosnia, about a Bosniak lady teacher who is rounded up and sexually assaulted by Serbian troops during the Yugoslav wars. Everyone says it’s a powerful piece of work, but its quiet realism may not be able to break through the pack. Also, ever since “No Man’s Land” won the Oscar ten years ago, the Oscars have never shown any interest in the conflicts in the Balkans.
Scandinavia’s “Beyond” and “Happy Happy” have been touted as strong possibilities for the shortlist, but reviews have not been universally strong. “Beyond” looks great on paper as up-and-coming star Noomi Rapace stars as a Swedish wife who reluctantly returns to her visit her dysfunctional and abusive family when her mother falls ill. Its the sort of family drama that Sweden used to be nominated for on a regular basis, but reviews for this female-driven film vary from very good to tepid. It may have better luck at the Globes. “Happy Happy”, a romantic comedy about the relationships of two married couples living next door to each other in rural northern Norway, is a fun film with good performances, but it’s also quite slight (and the a cappella singers got on my nerves...). Still, reviews have been stronger than expected (winning Sundance) and the film has the potential (certainly more than Denmark) to get a “Simple Simon”/”Everybody Famous” sort of nod.

As for Germany’s dance tribute “Pina”, it clearly has the strongest reviews of the four films here, but I think its weird genre-defying format (it’s a documentary! No, it’s a dance concert! No, it’s a 3D movie!) will annoy (bore?) too many in the large committee who feel the film doesn’t belong in this category, and will also fail to be rescued by the elite committee who will prefer to select films with a fiction narrative (but I could be wrong...the elite committee is still an enigma).


VERY POSSIBLE

4. AUSTRIA- “Breathing”
3. NETHERLANDS- “Sonny Boy”
Austria has chosen a quiet, introspective film (“Breathing”) about a young man serving time in a juvenile detention facility, who finds success at a part-time job working as a mortician’s assistant while dealing with feelings of guilt and loneliness. Although it may be too minimalist and/or cerebral for the Academy, it has gotten very positive reviews and won a minor award at Cannes. The film from the Netherlands, “Sonny Boy”, has not gotten very positive reviews at all. In fact, many critics dislike this film about the taboo relationship between an older, married Dutch woman with a young, black Surinamese in the 1940s, who end up having a baby (Sonny Boy). It ranks 15th of the 17 Western European films on IMDB (it just barely finished ahead of the UK, and way ahead of bottom-ranked Greece) and could not even manage a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Golden Calf Awards in Holland. So, why rank it in third place? The film is total Oscar bait, and the Netherlands knows it. The movie is said to be extremely emotionally involving and exactly the sort of tearjerker that the Oscar committee traditionally goes for. That said, the Oscar committee has been bolder and less traditional in recent years, so pushing their “like” buttons may not be enough anymore. However, like the critically maligned film from Russia, “Sonny Boy” definitely is in with a shot.


FAVORITES

2. FINLAND- “Le Havre”
1. FRANCE- “Declaration of War”

Italy has won more Oscars than France (13-12), but French-language films have the edge over Italian-language films (15-12). Chalk it up to the beauty of the French language (or be cynical and say it’s because French is spoken is many more countries) but I think the two Western European films that will be on the Oscar shortlist are the two movies in the French language.
Finland’s “Le Havre” would not have been eligible to represent Finland a few years ago, but a rule change means it is perfectly acceptable for them to send a film filmed in French and set in France. Aki Kaurismaki’s simple comedy of an old man taking in an illegal African immigrant is said to be one of his more accessible (will I like it? I doubt it, but I’ll try to see it in December when it comes out here in Washington DC) and the “old person teaches and learns from young person” is known to be a fetish plot for Oscar voters. It has a good chance of being recognized by either committee, so it doubles its chances.
France’s “Declaration of War” is even more baity. This semi-autobiographical story of a young couple trying to survive an emotional roller-coaster when their infant child is diagnosed with a deadly form of cancer is said to be well-made and well-acted, with a great deal of heart, gentle humor and a heart-tugging plot line. There are no bad reviews out there, and although it has not won any big awards, this has never been an impediment to Oscar, which doesn’t mind ignoring Cannes/Berlin/Venice winners for something more commercial. France was somewhat at a loss as to what to choose this year, but this semi-commercial feature (not made for film festivals) seems to have been a good choice. I think it’s in...


Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None

Number of countries opting out: GREENLAND, which debuted last year, and LUXEMBOURG which had no eligible films in any of its three native languages.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a weak year worldwide, so I’d say about half....Maybe, seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: The world is getting more and more international with the Finnish film in French, the Irish film in Bosnian and the films from Denmark and the UK (but notably NOT Spain) filmed partially in Spanish. I count 14: Bosnian, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Swedish and Welsh- plus smatterings of Finnish (in the Swedish entry), Italian and Spanish. At least five of the films are multi-lingual (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, the UK and possibly also Germany).

Spain sent its first-ever Catalan film and Switzerland sent its first-ever film from the Italian community.

Highest profile film: Probably FINLAND’s breezy dramedy “Le Havre” by obnoxious auteur Aki Kaurismaki, although GERMANY’s 3D dancing documentary “Pina” by Wim Wenders has also gotten a lot of buzz.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: France, comme d'habitude.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: GREECE’s uncomfortable black comedy (?) “Attenberg”, whose reviews have been even more divisive than last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth”

Number of Comedies: Laugh-out-loud comedies from DENMARK and NORWAY plus FINLAND’s dramedy.

Number of Animated or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. PORTUGAL chose a real documentary (“Jose & Pilar”), while GERMANY’s “Pina” sort of defies description but has generally been competing as a doc (it is also shortlisted for the Oscar documentary award).

Oscar History: Aki Kaurismaki is the only director to have received a nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which he got for the over-rated “Man Without A Past” in 2003. However, an impressive three other directors have been nominated in other categories: Germany’s Wim Wenders (Best Documentary, Buena Vista Social Club, 2000), Iceland’s Runar Runarsson (Best Live Action Short, The Last Farm, 2006) and Ireland’s Juanita Wilson (Best Live Action Short, The Door, 2010).

Italy’s Emanuele Crialese (“Nuovomundo”) and Netherlands’ Maria Peters (“Little Crumb”) have both been selected by for the Oscar race once before, as has Spain’s Agusti Villaronga who co-directed Mexico’s 2003 submisson “Aro Tolbukhin”.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while six others have been nominated. Only Ireland (which has only entered the competition once before) and Portugal (which holds the record for never winning) have never been nominated.

Number of Female Directors: Six! Pernilla August (Sweden), Valerie Donzelli (France), Maria Peters (Netherlands), Anne Sewitsky (Norway), Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Juanita Wilson (Ireland). Possibly a record! August is the first woman ever to represent Sweden.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 66-year old Wim Wenders (Germany) is the senior statesman of the group, while 33-year old Miguel Goncalves Mendes (Portugal) is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: The most obvious answer is Swedish “it” girl Noomi Rapace (“The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” who trades her tattoos and spiked hair for a more conservative look in Sweden’s “Beyond”, although American audiences will also be very familiar with "Patagonia"'s Matthew Rhys who just finished up a five-year run on “Brothers and Sisters". You’re also likely to recognize Sergi Lopez (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) in “Black Bread”, Kati Outinen a.k.a. Aki Kaurismaki’s muse in “Le Havre”, Swedish actor Stellan Starsgard who plays a doctor in the Bosnian-language Irish entry “As If I Was Not There” and Paprika Steen who plays the wife in “Superclasico”. And for those of you who watch the Oscar submission list year after year, Icelandic actors Throstur Leo Gunnarsson and Theodor Juliusson are both starring in their seventh Icelandic Oscar submission.

Tough Choices: Spain had the toughest choice this year, forced to choose between their well-reviewed 2010 Goya winner “Black Bread”, brand-new “The Sleeping Voice” and the latest quirky entry from Pedro Almodovar, “The Skin I Live In”. Almodovar’s plastic surgery horror film probably would have scared off elderly Oscar voters, so I think Spain chose well even if most bloggers disagree. Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also suffered online criticism for choosing unlikely dark horses (violent, disturbing “Bullhead”, fluffy romantic comedy “Superclasico” and documentary “Jose and Pilar”) over three of the early favorites (“The Kid With A Bike”, one of the the Brothers Dardennes’ more accessible films, baity Danish family drama “A Family” and “Mysteries of Lisbon”, a sumptuous four-hour soap opera). I can confirm that all three of these were stupid moves. Also snubbed: Austria’s child abuse drama “Michael”, France’s period drama “The Princess of Montpensier” (why did nobody bring this up?), Germany’s “The Poll Diaries” (it was shortlisted), Iceland’s 2010 Edda winner “Undercurrent”, Italy’s papal comedy “We Have A Pope” and Norway’s acclaimed “Oslo, August 31st”.

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although one of the members of Denmark’s Oscar selection committee (actor Thomas Magnussen) was accused of vote selling when he contacted two of the three shortlisted directors with a CV indicating he was on the Oscar committee. The Danish Film Institute promised to investigate. Finland’s Aki Kaurismaki ended his ridiculous Oscar boycott, though that was not particularly controversial.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only three- ICELAND, IRELAND and SPAIN. I came super-close with AUSTRIA, where I predicted an upset, and BELGIUM (had “Bullhead” in second place behind “The Kid With a Bike”) and would probably have gotten FINLAND, if I hadn’t thought Kaurismaki would continue his pointless Oscar boycott. I’ll admit the documentaries from GERMANY and PORTUGAL, as well as DENMARK’s “Superclasico” took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the one I was really looking forward to seeing (Norway’s “Happy Happy”; B+) plus Belgium’s “so what?” thriller “Bullhead (C), so I guess now my top choices would be Denmark’s silly-but-fun comedy “Superclasico” and Britain’s Welsh drama “Patagonia”.

Last year's race: I’m proud to say I saw 13 of the 16 films submitted last year, missing only Austria (which will be released on DVD in the US next year), Norway and Switzerland. The best were from the films from the Netherlands and Spain, and the worst was the inept film from Portugal.

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe