Sunday, March 10, 2024

OSCAR NIGHT: Predicting a Spanish Surprise!

 So, I got four out of five nominees, and I'm happy with that. I expected Documentary Feature favorite "20 Days in Mariupol" would manage to get an International Feature nominee....But the Academy went with Italy's grim human trafficking drama "Io Capitano" instead. I had Italy ranked 9th....but I wasn't surprised to see it make the list. 

This year, every Oscar prognosticator is pointing out that "Zone of Interest" cannot possibly lose because it is also nominated in the Best Picture race. That makes sense, but I'm not convinced. 

Last year's "All is Quiet on the Western Front" showed that Netflix is a powerful force in the category and that getting your movie seen is often just as important as good reviews. Survival drama "Society of the Snow" not only has Netflix behind it, but it's also arguably the better reviewed film, proved by higher ratings on IMDB and Letterboxd ("Zone of Interest" is ahead on Rotten Tomatoes). Ironically, "Perfect Days" ranks first on all three websites. 

We've never had a Netflix film versus a Best Picture nominee before.....

I didn't personally like "Zone of Interest"....and that's probably why I'm predicitng a surprise win for Spain and the haunting (and Best Make-Up nominee) "The Society of the Snow". 

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

1. SPAIN- "Society of the Snow" (50%)

2. UNITED KINGDOM- "Zone of Interest" (44%)

3. JAPAN- "Perfect Days" (5%)

4. GERMANY- "Teachers' Lounge" (1%)

5. ITALY- "Io Capitano" (0%....just happy to be nominated!)








Monday, January 22, 2024

FINAL PREDICTIONS

So, I got 12 out of 15.....That sounds like an amazing record....but it's not. Unfortunately, this category which used to full of surprises, now just picks the movies that the most people have seen. 

The three I got wrong- "Blaga's Lessons" (Bulgaria), "In the Shadow of Beirut" (Ireland) and "Inshallah A Boy"- were wonderful films that I saw and loved and that deserved to make the shortlist. Unfortunately, this category no longer picks the best movies.....The three films that replaced them were Cannes documentaries "Four Daughters" and "Mother of All Lies" plus the dark horse from Armenia-  "Amerikatsi" (which has an American director and got a lot of LA screenings plus an Amazon release). "Amerikatsi" is quite good and was a pleasant surprise. "Four Daughters" won Best Documentary at Cannes and was one of my alternates.....so not much of a surprise. Not sure how "Mother of All Lies" ended up on the list. 

I've seen the five films streaming on Amazon (Armenia, Finland, Iceland, Tunisia and Ukraine) plus Mexico (available on Curzon Home Cinema) and Morocco.....I'll see "Society of the Snow" this week....Unfortunately, I haven't seen any of the five films that I see in a virtual tie for 5th place, making it much harder to figure out which one will get the coveted nomination.

Here's how the precursors have shaped up so far:

Golden Globes: Finland, Italy, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Past Lives

BAFTA: Spain, Ukraine, UK + Anatomy of a Fall & Past Lives

Critics Choice: France, Japan, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Godzilla Minus One

European Film Awards (Euro films only): Finland, Italy, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) & Green Border

Satellite Awards: Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK + Anatomy of a Fall

NBR: Finland, Germany, Mexico, UK + Anatomy of a Fall (Winner) + La chimera

As we can see, the most popular film isn't eligible- "Anatomy of a Fall" scored four wins and is the frontrunner for the two that haven't happened yet...but France decided not to send it. "Zone of Interest" is in second place, scoring a nomination at all six. Finland and Spain also did very well....The shortlisted films from France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico and Ukraine got at least one mention, while Tunisia got a number of Best Documentary nominations at these shows....Armenia, Bhutan, Denmark, Iceland and Morocco have largely been unrecognized. 

And here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations that will be announced on Tuesday: 

VIRTUAL LOCKS

1.  UNITED KINGDOM- "The Zone of Interest"

2.  SPAIN- "Society of the Snow" 

These two films have been nominated for Best Foreign/International Film by almost every awards body, and they've both been mentioned in the Best Picture race....("Zone" as a frontrunner and "Snow" as an unlikely dark horse). They both have fantastic reviews, well-connected directors who have had their English-language films nominated for Oscars in the past, plus heavy and "important" subjects (WWII concentration camps and a fight-for-survival plane crash) and are certain to be nominated. 

VERY LIKELY

3.   JAPAN- "Perfect Days"

4.  UKRAINE- "20 Days in Mariupol"

These two seem to have what it takes. I originally predicted Ukraine would make the shortlist in Best International Feature, but only get nominated in Best Documentary Feature. I've changed my mind. While "20 Days in Mariupol" is not my choice for the Best International Documentary of the year (that would be Ireland's "In the Shadow of Beirut"), it's difficult to watch "Mariupol" and not deeply feel the enormous courage of the director, and the importance of his mission to highlight war crimes committed by Russian invading forces. On paper, Ukraine looks like it's in....It has the highest rating on Letterboxd (4.2), Rotten Tomatoes (100%) and IMDB (8.6!!!) of all 15 films. 

Japan has selected a quiet and introspective film about the life of a Japanese janitor. While it may not sound exciting (and it probably isn't...I haven't seen it yet), the film has gotten great reviews, the Best Actor award at Cannes, and its themes of aging and life satisfaction are likely to resonate with the older voters who serve on this committee. A lot of people say it's vulnerable but I think the three-time Oscar-nominated Wim Wenders is safe. 

BLOODBATH FOR 5th PLACE

5.  GERMANY- "The Teachers' Lounge"

6.  BHUTAN- "The Monk and the Gun"

7.  FRANCE- "The Taste of Things"

8.  DENMARK- "The Promised Land"

9.  ITALY- "Io Capitano"

What a race! Four of these five countries are Oscar powerhouses that have racked up 5 (Denmark), 3 (Germany), and 2 (France and Italy) nominations in the past ten years. All of them (except France) have racked up a win too. Three of the directors are previous Oscar nominees in this category. So, these five are in a virtual tie for 5th place, and I keep changing my mind as to which one (or two, if one of the four frontrunners fails) will make it. For now, I'm going with GERMANY...but I'm not at all confident. Let's take a closer look:

BHUTAN- Telling the comedic story of Bhutan's first democratic elections, this is said to be a genuine crowdpleaser. However, it is constantly being compared to "Lunana" (which put Bhutanese cinema on the map) and not everyone thinks "Monk" is as good. I also don't think it's been as widely seen as the four European films, which could make it less competitive.

DENMARK- Oscar loves Denmark and they love Mads Mikkelsen. And "The Promised Land" got very strong reviews when it premiered in Venice, and a theatrical release in the U.S. So why is nobody talking about it? That's a bad sign but I do think period western "The Promised Land" will come a lot closer to a nomination that most people are expecting.....However, I do expect that it will miss. 

FRANCE- This is a confusing one. Most people I know say "Taste of Things" is well-made but terribly boring (it has an abysmal 28% on Rotten Tomatoes....but that sounds ridiculously low....is someone trying to sabotage their score?) . But critics' reviews are overwhelmingly positive, and I believe that American audiences (especially older ones) will like it better than French ones. So, I have it on the bubble. I don't expect it to be nominated but it's very, very possible. Of course, most everyone thinks "Anatomy of a Fall" should have represented France at the Oscars, where it would have had a strong chance of winning. I've heard that at least a few Oscar voters are "punishing" France by not voting for "Taste". 

GERMANY- A dedicated teacher investigates a student accused of stealing. While it doesn't sound exciting, this is supposed to be a superior "moral dilemma" drama akin to a thriller, in the mold of two-time Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi. It's certainly the film on the shortlist I'm most excited to see. While being a great movie often doesn't mean anything in this category, this is a great movie from perpetual Oscar nominee Germany....everyone seems to like it. The biggest negative? The film hasn't been released in the United States, which may give its French competitors an edge.  

ITALY- Oscar hasn't gone for Matteo Garrone before but "Gomorrah" was awful and "Dogman" good but forgettable. "Io Capitano" is a harrowing Wolof-language drama about human trafficking and is supposed to a work of brutal realism.  While I am ranking Italy last among these five, it's certainly possible. 

REAL DARK HORSES

10.   FINLAND- "Fallen Leaves"

11.  MEXICO- "Totem"

12.  ARMENIA- "Amerikatsi" 

13.  TUNISIA- "Four Daughters"

FINLAND has done very well in the precursors (see above) but the slight, 81-minutes comedy-drama "Fallen Leaves" seems highly unlikely to me, especially amidst much heavier fare. I'll see it tomorrow to judge for myself....I like Finnish cinema, but I'm not a Kaurismaki fan....so perhaps I'm prejudiced but I think the absence of "Fallen Leaves" will be one of the surprises on Oscar morning. 

I'm so happy to see ARMENIA make the shortlist for the first time! "Amerikatsi" is a charming film, directed by Armenian-American actor Michael Goorjian, about an Armenian-American who moves to the Soviet Union to help rebuild the land of his ancestors after WWII....but who is promptly thrown into jail for wearing a tie. The film is an old-fashioned, funny film that wants to be "Life is Beautiful", finding humor and humanity in a brutal Soviet prison.....but although it's entertaining, it never felt to me like it was a potential Oscar nominee.

I loved Lila Aviles' feature debut "The Chambermaid" which MEXICO submitted four years ago (and which was the only Mexican film in the last six years that didn't make the Oscar shortlist). I most certainly did not love Aviles' second film "Totem", about a large Mexican family getting ready for a bittersweet birthday party for a cancer-stricken relative. I'm definitely in the minority; I know most people really like "Totem". But I can't believe that such a slow, dull film (that reminded me of "Summer 1993" and "It's Only the End of the World") will qualify from such a strong group. 

Lastly we have Cannes Best Documentary winner "Four Daughters" from TUNISIA, an odd little documentary about a Tunisian single mother of four daughters, two of whom join ISIS. Director Kaouther Ben Hania (one of my favorite filmmakers and one who deserved an Oscar for "Beauty & the Dogs") hires actresses to play the two evil monster daughters alongside the rest of the real family. This was an interesting idea although I didn't feel it worked 100%. It's definitely a very educational film about how young people get radicalized in relatively liberal Tunisia, which supposedly has one of the highest terrorist recruitments rates in the world. However, the film is kind of divisive and I'm not certain Kaouther can get two surprise nominations in less than five years.   

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

14.   ICELAND- "Godland"

15.  MOROCCO- "Mother of All Lies"

It's a pleasure to be nominated, but it's also a pleasure to be shortlisted in a tight race of 88 films from around the world! The films from Iceland and Morocco do have great reviews, and a lot of people in their concern. However, it's absolutely certain that they are the two weakest contenders among the fifteen films on the shortlist. "Godland" is a beautifully shot, painfully intellectual and somewhat overlong drama about a Danish priest assigned to Iceland circa the 1890s. I couldn't finish it in one sitting and I frankly didn't understand the motivations of the characters at the end. This requires a lot of patience....Cinematography is gorgeous though. 

As for "Mother of All Lies", it's difficult to critique such a deeply personal story. Director Asmae El-Moudir interviews her family and neighbors about a deadly 1981 riot that was covered up by the government. It reminded me a lot of "The Missing Picture" (which was a surprise Oscar nominee) but less interesting. Worst of all, the film spends nearly half its running time meandering before it finally gets to its main subject. Some people genuinely like the film, but it has the lowest Letterboxd and IMDB scores of all 15 films and is the least likely film on the list, and (unlike Tunisia and Ukraine) failed to make the Documentary Feature shortlist.

A few brief statistics: 

Number of Women:          Lila Avilés (Mexico), Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia) and Asmae El Moudir (Morocco)

How many have been nominated for Oscars? Wow....six out of 15.....Nikolaj Arcel ("A Royal Affair"), Kaouther Ben Hania ("The Man Who Sold His Skin"), Pawo Choyning Dorji ("Lunana"), Tran Anh Hung ("The Scent of Green Papaya"), Aki Kaurismaki ("The Man Without A Past") plus Wim Wenders who was never nominated in this category (though Germany submitted his films three times) but has three Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature. None have won. 

In addition to these six, four more - Lila Aviles ("The Chambermaid"), JA Bayona ("The Orphanage"), Matteo Garrone ("Gomorrah" and "Dogman") and Hlynur Pálmason ("A White, White Day")- made the shortlist for the first time after representing their country at least once before. 

Most Likely To Be Nominated for the First Time: Ukraine

Letterboxd Scores- Highest: 4.2 (Japan and Ukraine)....Lowest: 3.5 (Morocco)

IMDB Scores- Highest: 8.6 (Ukraine)....Lowest: 6.6 (Morocco)

Oldest and Youngest Directors:     Wim Wenders, 78 and Asmae El Moudir, 33

Festival Premieres: 

Cannes: 7 (Finland, France, Iceland, Japan, Morocco, Tunisia, UK)

Venice: 3 (Denmark, Italy, Spain)

Berlin: 2 (Germany, Mexico)

Sundance: 1 (Ukraine)

Telluride: 1 (Bhutan)

None: 1 (Armenia)



Wednesday, December 20, 2023

FINAL PREDICTIONS

And here are my final predictions:

MY PREDICTED SHORTLIST: (films I've seen highlighted in red)

1. Spain- “Society of the Snow”

2. United Kingdom- “The Zone of Interest”

3. Ukraine- “20 Days in Mariupol”

4. Germany- “The Teachers’ Lounge”

5. Finland- “Fallen Leaves”

6. France- “The Taste of Others”

7. Denmark- “Promised Land”

8. Japan- “Perfect Days”

9. Mexico- “Totem”

10. Iceland- “Godland”

11. Bhutan- “The Monk & the Gun”

12. Ireland- “In the Shadow of Beirut”

13. Jordan- “Inshallah A Boy”

14. Italy- “Io Capitano"

15. Bulgaria- “Blaga’s Lessons”


STRONG ALTERNATES

16. Poland- “The Peasants”

17. Australia- “Shayda”

18. Burkina Faso- “Sira”

19. Tunisia- “Four Daughters"

20. Macedonia- “Housekeeping for Beginners”

21. Argentina- “The Delinquents”

22. Sweden- “Opponent”

23. Turkey- “About Dry Grasses”

24. Czech Republic- “Brothers”


DARK HORSES:

25. Chile- “The Settlers”

26. Israel- “Seven Blessings”

27. South Korea- “Concrete Utopia”

28. Netherlands- “Sweet Dreams”

29. Romania- “Do Not Expect Much from the End of the World"

30. Philippines- “The Missing”

31. Lithuania- “Slow”

32. Sudan- “Goodbye Julia”

33. Brazil- “Pictures of Ghosts”

34. Mongolia- “City of Wind”

35. Venezuela- “Shadow of the Sun”

36. Nigeria- “Mami Wata”

37. Morocco- "Mother of All Lies"

2023-2024 Submissions from Western Europe (18 films)

And with the list due to be released tomorrow, here is a quick rundown of the films from Western Europe. These films will probably make up a majority of the shortlist tomorrow (and many of them deserve it).

Unfortunately, due to travelling most of the month of November, I haven’t gotten to two of my Western European screeners….I still need to watch Iceland and Luxembourg before the end of the year…

I'll try to add commentary before the list comes out, but I won't change my rankings. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20

Who’s Missing?:  Only Greenland and Malta, which have tiny film industries, did form selection committees this year…..but its possibly they simply had no films that met all the requirements. Many of Malta’s small film output is in English.

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

 

1.      SPAIN- “Society of the Snow” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.      UNITED KINGDOM- “The Zone of Interest” (4.1)

3.      FINLAND- “Fallen Leaves” (3.8)

According to most sources, Spain and the UK are the frontrunners to win the Oscar. Like many recent winners, they are also considered a threat for other categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress (UK), as well as Best Make-Up (Spain) and Best Score (both), which helps them to be seen. "The Zone of Interest", a German-language film by a British director, has been a favorite since it won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) in Cannes. It's about the family life of the commander of the Auschwitz concentration camp and has some of the best reviews of the 88 contenders. "Society of the Snow", beat a lot of internal competition to represent SPAIN and with its Netflix deal and familiar story, is my current prediction to win. It's about the 1972 plane crash in the Andes that many know from the Ethan Hawke film "Alive". Director JA Bayona is well-known in Hollywood. It's impossible for either film to fail to make the shortlist stage. 

In a strong third place is "Fallen Leaves" from FINLAND. While this light romantic comedy-drama is less certain, I think the fact that it netted both a Best Foreign Film and Best Actress nomination at the Golden Globes mean that it's a safe bet for the shortlist, though not for a nomination. Kaurismaki got Finland's only Oscar nomination twnety years ago, and "Fallen Leaves" is supposed to be a better film. 

EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:

 

4.      GERMANY- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (3.8)

5.      FRANCE- “The Taste of Things” (3.9)

6.      DENMARK- “Promised Land” (3.8)

7.      ITALY- “Io Capitano” (3.7)

ON THE BUBBLE

  



8.      ICELAND- “Godland” (3.8)

9.      SWEDEN- “Opponent” (3.4)

10.  IRELAND- “In the Shadow of Beirut” (3.9)

11.  NETHERLANDS- “Sweet Dreams” (3.5)

I've seen three of the four films in this group...and I loved all three. I really hope that at least one of these dark horses makes the shortlist. SWEDEN has selected an intriguing drama set in a detention center for asylum seekers. The less you know about the plot the better, but it's awesome seeing what Iranian actor Payman Maadi expand his acting range in a country with far less censorship. I really loved this film twisty film that seems predictable but isn't....and it beat out some fierce competition in Sweden...though critics seem to love it a lot less than I do. Go watch it!

IRELAND has sent in the best documentary of the year- "In the Shadow of Beirut"- featuring four families living in a poor slum of Beirut. Yes, while I acknowledge the historical and political importance of "20 Days in Mariupol" and the quality of the Ukrainian film, this is definitely the best documentary on the list. "Beirut" skillfully tells multiple stories of fascinating people with difficult lives, while at the same time making you think about poverty, politics and the importance of enjoying and appreciating the little things in life.  It will be in my Top 5....and if Oscar voters watch it (and they probably won't), it will definitely be on the shortlist tomorrow. 

THE NETHERLANDS used to be a superpower in this category but they haven't been nominated in twenty years. "Sweet Dreams" is a fascinating historical drama about a family and their servants in Dutch colonial Indonesia. 80s star Renee Soutendijk gives a great comeback performance and the film tells a bitter, humorous and ultimately tragic soap opera about what happens when a wealthy plantation owner leaves everything to the illegitimate son he fathered with the housemaid. 

As for ICELAND, "Godland" was one of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year....but that year was 2022. It wasn't released in Iceland until 2023 so it's competing in this category this year. This film about a Danish priest virtually driven mad when he is assigned to a small community in 19th century Iceland is on the bubble for a spot on the shortlist. I wonder if it would have done better last year when it had buzz on the film festival circuit.  

MIDDLE OF THE RANKINGS

   



12.  BELGIUM- “Omen” (3.4)

13.   SWITZERLAND- “Thunder” (3.4)

14.  PORTUGAL- “Bad Living” (3.3)

15.  LUXEMBOURG- “The Last Ashes”  (3.2)

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: 

  

16.  GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” (3.4)

17.  AUSTRIA- “Vera” (3.4)

18.   NORWAY- “Songs of Earth” (3.5)

All three of these films have good reviews but don't have any chance at making the finals. "Songs of Earth" is probably a good nature documentary but selecting it for the International Feature category was a big mistake by NORWAY. "Vera", a peculiar docu-drama representing AUSTRIA, is about an Italian socialite who gets into a car accident is also too unconventional to get votes. From GREECE, we have a drama about a poor family (father, mother and adult daughter) living on the Greece-Macedonia border in a transit area for migrants from Africa and the Middle East. Telling the same story from all three perspectives, this is an interesting little film that gets better as it goes along but isn't strong enough to contend for the next round.  

Genres:       We have two documentaries (Ireland and Norway) plus the odd docu-reality-drama from Austria (I still don’t quite understand what this movie is), and one sort-of comedy from Finland. The rest are dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: 5- Underdogs Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. The middle three are fantastic films, and I hope that at least one can make it to the next round. I will see Iceland, Luxembourg and Spain by the first week of January. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Germany’s “Teachers’ Lounge”

Number I Predicted Correctly: 8/18….Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Spain and the UK. A lot of countries had really competitive races.  

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin- Germany, Portugal (Silver Bear, Jury Prize), Sweden

·        Cannes- Belgium (UCR, New Voice Prize), Finland (Jury Prize), France (Best Director), Iceland, UK (Grand Prix)

·        Sundance- None

·        Venice- Austria (Best Director and Actress, Venice Horizons 2022), Denmark, Italy (Silver Lion), Spain (Closing Film)

Women Directors- Only 5 films had female directors or co-directors: Tizza Covi (Austria), Carmen Jaquier (Switzerland), Margreth Olin (Norway) Asimina Proedrou (Greece) and Ena Sendijarević (Netherlands). Austria has had films directed or co-directed by women seven of the past nine years, which has to be some kind of record!

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Aki Kaurismäki (Finland) and João Canijo (Portugal) are both 66. Bosnian-Dutch director Ena Sendijarević is the youngest at 36.

Languages Represented- There are 14 dominant languages- Arabic (Ireland), Danish (Denmark and Iceland), Dutch, Finnish, French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), German (Germany and the UK), Greek, Italian (Austria), Luxembourgish, Norwegian, Persian (Sweden), Portuguese, Spanish, and Wolof (Italy). There are also healthy doses of Icelandic, Indonesian (Netherlands), Lingala (Belgium) and Swedish in their respective films.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Most of them….I’d say 11 or 12.

Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- All of these countries have been nominated except Luxembourg and Portugal….and I don’t see that changing this year. The UK is the most likely to win for the first time.  

Buzziest Films: “Zone of Interest” by auteurs….”Society of Snow” thanks to Netflix….and “The Taste of Things” because of the divisive critical reaction.  

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 20, 2023):      Best: UK (4.1)  Worst: Luxembourg (3.2)

Dumbest Decision: Well, most people say it’s FRANCE for selecting “The Taste of Things” over Palme d’Or winner, Golden Globe nominee and Best Actress contender “Anatomy of a Fall”…..But France had a difficult decision. NORWAY made a big mistake in my opinion when deciding to pick a nature documentary…. But I’m giving this award to AUSTRIA for choosing a reality-show docu-drama over a film (“The Fox”) that could have legitimately contended for an Oscar nomination.  

Controversies and Changes:  Other than the failure to submit “Anatomy of a Fall”, there were no major controversies from the region, although Austria almost failed to submit a film when their new internal rules disqualified most of their own selection committee. (I think it said that all members must have two film credits in the past five years…which some distinguished filmmakers like Michael Haneke couldn’t meet).

I expected a controversy from Finland where temperamental Aki Kaurismaki usually doesn’t allow his films to be submitted….but he allowed “Fallen Leaves” to be sent without incident.

Oscar History:   In total, a whopping ten of these 18 countries have previously submitted directors.

We have three Oscar nominees in the race: Nikolaj Arcel (Denmark) got an Oscar nomination for “A Royal Affair” in 2013, Aki Kaurismaki (Finland) got one for “The Man Without A Past” in 2003 and Trần Anh Hùng (France) got one for “The Scent of Green Papaya” (representing his native Vietnam) in 1994.

I admit that I thought JA Bayona was an Oscar nominee for “The Impossible”….but he wasn’t.

Matteo Garrone has represented Italy twice before, with “Gomorrah” in 2008 and “Dogman” in 2018. Joao Canijo has represented Portugal twice before, with “Noite Escura” in 2005 and “Blood of My Blood” in 2012.

Tran also represented Vietnam for “Vertical Ray of the Sun” while Kaurismaki was selected to represent Finland three times before, although he threw a temper tantrum and demanded that two of them (“Drifting Clouds” and “Lights in the Dusk”) be withdrawn before the viewing stage.  

Here for the second time: Austria’s Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel (“La Pivellina”, 2010), Iceland’s Hlynur Palmason (“A White, White Day”, 2019), Ireland’s Garry Keane (“Gaza”, 2019), Spain’s JA Bayona (“The Orphanage”, 2007) and Norway’s Margreth Olin (“Angel”, 2010).

Of the 18 Western European countries, 9 have won the Oscar multiple times (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), 4 have been nominated multiple times (Belgium, Greece, Norway, UK) and 3 have been nominated just once (Finland, Iceland, Ireland). Just two- Luxembourg and Portugal- are waiting for their first shortlist spot. Portugal holds the world record for most submissions (39) without ever advancing to the second round.

Most Notable Omissions: Wow…This year, there were a lot of front-runners who failed to make the Oscar shortlist. Interestingly, ten of these countries now announce a list of the finalists that they consider (Austria and Belgium are the only major countries that don’t) so we have a good idea of exactly who came close.



 




Of course, Palme d’Or winner and Oscar frontrunner “Anatomy of a Fall” was the most notable omission…but France has so much to choose from and the “one country, one film” will always affect them the most. The other high-profile omissions were Alice Rohrwacher’s “La Chimera” (Italy), “Close Your Eyes” (Spain) and “The Fox” (Austria).

Also out: “Eismayer” (Austria), “When It Melts” (Belgium), “Before It Ends” (Denmark, by Oscar -winning Short Film director Anders Walter), “Afire” (Germany), “Black Stone” (Greece), “Driving Mum” (Iceland), “There’s Still Tomorrow” and “Kidnapped” (Italy), “When We Lost to the Germans” (Netherlands), “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” (Norway, although it didn’t even make the national shortlist), “20,000 Species of Bees” (Spain), and “Paradise is Burning” (Sweden).

Most Famous Face: Of course it’s a tie between Oscar winner Juliette Binoche (France) and international film star Mads Mikkelsen (Denmark). But I’d like to offer a bronze medal to Iranian actor Payman Maadi (“A Separation”) who stars in “Opponent” (Sweden).

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 19 films from this region last year. Although they dominated the Oscar shortlist, I mostly wasn’t impressed. The best were the Oscar-nominated “Close” and the surprisingly good “Nostalgia” from Italy (I almost didn’t watch it as I thought it looked terrible). The rest (in order):

Sweden and Iceland (A-), Portugal, France, Finland, Germany (B+) Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Malta, Luxembourg (B) UK, Netherlands (B-), Spain (C) and Greece (D). I didn’t see the films from Norway (which was only released as a Netflix TV miniseries in the USA) and Switzerland (though I have the DVD sitting unwatched in my living room).