FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS (Asia)

And here are my predictions from the 23 countries from Asia. 19 of these countries submitted films last year. Bhutan (1999), Mongolia (2005), Sri Lanka (2009) and Tajikistan (2005) haven't sent films in years.

1. AFGHANISTAN- “Wolf and Sheep” Afghanistan is one of those countries that keeps sending great movies year after year without luck. “Parting” was one of the best films submitted last year (albeit a weak year) but AMPAS mysteriously disqualified it without announcing a reason. Was it because of nationality (the film was an Iranian co-production) or was it not properly released in Afghanistan? Who can say? The year before, “Utopia” was disqualified for having too much English. This year, I predict they will send either “Lina”, a movie about a young woman who goes in search of her biological father after learning from a blood test that her parents are not her real parents, or “Wolf and Sheep”, about life in a pastoral village in central Afghanistan. I give the edge to “Wolf and Sheep” whose 27-year old female director won Director’s Fortnight at Cannes in 2016, and who made the film in Afghanistan with an international crew. Siddiq Barmak (the Golden Globe-winning director of “Osama”) is currently in production on a new movie called “The Pass” in Georgia. 

2. BANGLADESH- “Rina Brown”- There seems to be an unfortunate trend in Asia whereby the highest-profile films of the year are being banned. In February, Bangladesh joined Bhutan and Jordan on the list by banning “No Bed of Roses”, a drama starring Bollywood actor Irrfan Khan. Reasons for the ban are unclear, but it appears to be due to allegations from the widow of acclaimed author/filmmaker Humayun Ahmed (who was also a strong supporter of the current ruling party) that the film is an unauthorized dramatization of her husband’s life. All but one of the Bangladeshi submissions since 2005 have been produced by Impress Telefilms, the dominant national film studio. That bodes well for “Hotath Dekha”, a co-production with India about two characters who meet on a train in 1938 Bengal, and “Rina Brown”, a romance between a Muslim man and a Christian girl on the eve of the war for independence. Films about the 1971 war are always popular subjects for Bangladeshi cinema. If selected, “Rina Brown” would be the first female-helmed film to represent the country. However, most Bangladeshi films that have received buzz abroad have been made outside the Impress studio system, including two decidedly arthouse entries- “Live from Dhaka” (Singapore) and Abu Sayeed’s crowd-funded “Death of a Poet”- as well as “Gopon: The Inner Sound”, which won Best Foreign Film at the Delhi Film Festival. Other Bangladeshi movies about the war for independence this year include “Bhuban Majhi” and “Lal Sobujer Sur”, which could be selected.  My prediction: “Rina Brown” ends up being one of the more obscure entries on this year's Oscar longlist, with war drama “Bhuban Majhi” in second, dramedy “Hotath Dekha” in third, and arthouse “Gopon” in fourth. 

3. BHUTAN- “Honey Giver Among the Dogs” Bhutan submitted a film just once in 1999, for Khynetse Norbu’s delightful “The Cup”. According to the national newspaper/news agency Kuensel, the producers of Norbu’s latest film- “Hema Herma: Sing Me A Song While I Wait” were preparing to submit their film- when the film (which has delighted audiences in Locarno, Toronto and Busan) was unexpectedly banned. Bhutan, best known for its mountain scenery and “gross national happiness” policy is not known for censorship. However, the Bhutan InfoComm and Media Authority (BICMA) refused to budge, meaning the film cannot be screened in Bhutan and thus cannot compete for an Oscar. The reasons are vague, but it appears the cultural authorities objected to the way Bhutanese masks were used in the film, in fictional, non-traditional ceremonies. This is a pity for Bhutanese filmmakers and a shameful act of censorship. But all is not lost. Bhutan actually had two well-reviewed films at Busan, so I’m hopeful they’ll send film-noir mystery “Honeygiver Among the Dogs” this year until “Hema Hema” can work out its issues with the government. But they probably won’t send anything. “Honeygiver” is about a policeman searching for two missing people- a monk and a local femme fatale. “Serga Mathang”, which won Best Picture at the National Film Awards, won’t figure into the decision-making.

4. CAMBODIA- “Diamond Island” Most of Cambodia’s film and television industry were executed or exiled during the Khmer Rouge genocide of the 1970s, but the country has submitted films four of the past five years, and netted an unexpected Oscar nomination for Rithy Panh’s documentary “The Missing Picture”. I used to struggle to find even one eligible Cambodian film, but this year’s Cambodia International Film Festival (CIFF) featured six new movies. This year’s nominee is almost certain to be “Diamond Island”, which screened at Cannes Critics Week 2016 before opening in Cambodian cinemas in October. It’s a familiar story- boy from the countryside moves to the big city to find work and falls in love with a local girl- but it’s all supposedly done very well. The main competition comes from Oscar nominee Panh, who has another Khmer Rouge documentary out this year- the French-language “Exile”. However, it’s so abstract and cerebral that I think the Cambodian Academy will give 33-year old Davy Chou a chance. The other four Cambodian premieres at the CIFF included a psychological thriller, a popular martial arts action film, a horror film and an LGBT-themed chase comedy.

5. CHINA- “The Chinese Widow” Director Feng Xiaogang has been selected by Chinese officialdom to represent the country twice. He is one of China’s biggest box-office draws and his “I Am Not Madame Bovary” has been the front-runner all year, ever since its domestic release date was postponed from September to November 2016, changing the year it was eligible. It won Best Picture at the Asian Film Awards and at the China Film Directors Awards and was nominated at the Golden Horse Awards in Taiwan. “Madame Bovary” is a comedy/satire about a woman who is double-crossed by her ex-husband after the two plan a fake divorce to get around government land regulations. Will China feel comfortable nominating a film with a heroine who is trying to cheat the government? Probably not, but they did approve it for release. China is usually the last major country to announce their Oscar pick, and they often make strange decisions. In the past three years, they've selected movies out of left field, that few people had heard of, and which hadn’t won any awards of note. For that reason, I’m wondering if “Madame Bovary” could get bumped by nationalist war drama “The Chinese Widow”, directed by Danish Oscar winner Bille August and starring Emile Hirsch as a downed American pilot who is cared for by a benevolent Chinese family during WWII. Although the film isn’t supposed to be very good, this sounds much more like China’s cup of tea. "The Chinese Widow" opened the Shanghai Film Festival and China has a tradition of sending films to the Oscars with Hollywood stars (Adrien Brody and Tim Robbins in “Back to 1942”, Christian Bale in “Flowers of War”). Feng Xiaogang also has a new movie premiering in October (“Youth”) that could arrange an early release. Three other Chinese films deserve a mention here: “Summer is Gone” is this year’s arthouse frontrunner. It beat out “Madame Bovary” for Best Picture at the Golden Horse Awards, and is an intimate B&W tale of a Chinese family living in Inner Mongolia. “Lady in the Portrait” is this year’s costume drama frontrunner, starring Fan Bingbing (who also plays (not) Madame Bovary) as a 16^th century Empress who commissions a portrait by a French artist. “Wasted Times” is a lush, period crime epic, co-starring Zhang Ziyi and Japanese actor Tadanobu Asano. All of these films (except the brand-new “Widow”) competed at the China Film Director Awards, and appear to have the approval of the Chinese government. Less likely:  China’s festival films have either gotten mixed reviews (“Free and Easy” from Sundance, “Crosscurrent” from Berlin) or deal with controversial issues (“Walking Past the Future” from Cannes and “Mr. No Problem” from Tokyo). Only “Knife in the Clear Water” (Rotterdam) would seem to stand a chance. Dark horses: a couple of Mainland pictures with Hong Kong directors- girl power romantic drama “Soul Mate” probably has a better chance to represent Hong Kong than China, while hit action film “Operation Mekong” isn’t acclaimed enough. In the end, I’m disappointed to say that I’m predicting “Chinese Widow” will beat out the superior “Madame Bovary”, but I'm hoping that I’m wrong. Rounding out the Top Seven from the world’s largest nation: (in order) “Wasted Times”, “Summer is Gone”, “Lady in the Portrait”, “Youth” and “Knife in the Clear Water”.  Or maybe something nobody has ever heard of. 

6. HONG KONG- “Our Time Will Come” Hong Kong is confusing because many of the territory's top directors are now working on the Mainland, with its mega-market of 1.2 billion cinemagoers. At the same time there are a growing number of people wary of Mainland influence and urging the protection of Hong Kong’s distinct culture and Cantonese language. The obvious Oscar front-runner is “Our Time Will Come”, a large scale historical drama directed by Ann Hui, who has represented Hong Kong four times. It’s about how local Hong Kongers and Chinese guerillas fought the Japanese together during World War II. It’s gotten decent reviews, but Hong Kong’s artistic community may be reluctant to select a film that was released to celebrate twenty years since the unification of China and Hong Kong (it depends who’s on the selection committee!) Still, for now that’s the front-runner. Two small-scale dramas (of the sort selected in 2010 and 2011) also have a chance, namely Cantonese-language “Mad World” (winner of two acting awards at the Hong Kong Film Awards), about a man struggling with mental illness, and Mandarin-language “Soul Mate” (nominated for Best Director at Asian Film Awards and Best Picture at the HK Film Awards), an emotional girl-power romantic drama about two best friends in love with the same man. They haven’t chosen a big martial arts movie in years (2006 and 2008), but these visually impressive films may impress members of the tech branches. Of these, the ones with the best chance are Gordon Chan’s “God of War”, about local Chinese fending off Japanese pirates in the 16^th century, and the upcoming Tsui Hark-produced “Thousand Faces of Dunjia”, a wuxia film about the formation of secret society. It’s set to bow October 1^st, but Hong Kong frequently arranges an Oscar-qualifying release to promote new films. They could also do the same for “Find Your Voice”, a new Andy Lau movie about a grouchy choir (Oscar loves choirs!) that is currently without a release date. I’m predicting “Our Time Will Come”, but I’m not confident. The rest of the top five: “Mad World”, “Thousand Faces of Dunjia”, “Soul Mate” and “Find Your Voice”.

7. INDIA- TBD

8. INDONESIA- “Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts” Indonesia rarely makes movies that make it to the Cannes Film Festival, so “Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts”, an exciting feminist revenge thriller with shades of “Kill Bill”, is currently the front-runner to represent Indonesia. One big problem- the film has no domestic release date. Another potential problem- the Indonesian Academy usually sends stuffy historical dramas rather than edgy and exciting fare like "Marlina". But the film has gotten enthusiastic reviews, and I’m hopeful she’ll make it to the longlist.  Overall, Indonesia is seeing a film resurgence, even though they’ve never yet seriously contended for an Oscar. I’m going to predict “Marlina” gets an Oscar-qualifying release this "island western" about a kick-ass widow who takes revenge on the men who have wronged her. Other possibilities include a trio of historical dramas (“Kartini”, “Solo, Solitude” and “A Woman From Java”) and two melodramas (“Salawaku” and “A Letter to God”). If “Marlina” doesn’t get released, I think Indonesia will select “Kartini”, about a feminist hero who defied the traditions of her high-born family to fight for women’s rights in early 20^th century Indonesia. Director Bramantyo was selected in 2014 and the film co-stars Indonesia's most acclaimed actress- Christine Hakim- as Kartini’s mother. In third place: “A Letter to God”, about two street children whose fates diverge when the girl is suddenly adopted by a foreign family. She then searches for her best friend a decade later. Garin Nugroho , one of Indonesia’s most senior directors, hasn’t been selected since 1998 but his “A Woman From Java”, about the Indonesian concubine of an elderly Dutch merchant in the colonial era, will come fourth and road movie “Salawaku”, which got a Best Pic nominee at last year’s national Citra Awards, will probably come fifth. 

9. JAPAN- “Harmonium” I lived in Japan five years but I’ve never once predicted them correctly. Their choices tend to be extremely random. I’ve managed to see seventeen out of eighteen submissions since 1999 and they’ve sent some brilliant films (the best was “Confessions”) as well as some real losers (last year’s “Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”) that nobody inside or outside Japan seemed to like. So it’s best not to spend too much time trying to understand. This year, I predict they’ll send “Harmonium”, a dark drama about a man who hires his friend who has just been released from prison. The “friend” (played by Japanese superstar Tadanobu Asano) begins to insinuate himself into the lives of the man’s family. It won the 2016 Jury Prize in Cannes “Un Certain Regard”, and was the only Japanese film to be nominated for Best Picture at the 2017 Asian Film Awards. It has good reviews and starpower and has the same dark tone of their 2010 and 2014 submissions.  Not far behind is Hirokazu Koreeda’s “The Third Murder”, which opens in September. Koreeda is a brilliant director who works outside the studio system. He’s frequently passed over for great work ("Like Father, Like Son" etc.) but he was selected by the Japanese Academy once. Told from three perspectives, “The Third Murder” is about a murderer, a lawyer and the family of a murder victim. Three strong dark horses are (1)- “The Old Capital”, a family drama about a traditional family whose business has hundreds of years of roots to the city of Kyoto, but which is having trouble adjusting to the modern world; (2)- “Oh Lucy!”, a quirky low-key comedy that was called a “hidden gem” at Cannes, stars Shinobu Terajima and Josh Hartnett as a bored office lady and her English teacher. (It’s produced by Will Ferrell!) and (3) “In this Corner of the World”, a gorgeous animated film about Hiroshima in the years leading up to World War II, which won Best Animated Film (a very competitive category in Japan!) at the Japanese Academy Awards this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these five were selected. Cancer comedy “Her Loves Boils Bathwater” and samurai movies “Tatara Samurai” and ultra-violent “Blade of the Immortal” have all gotten great reviews….but none of them seem serious enough to be the Japanese candidate. And the high-profile “Radiance” from Naomi Kawase has gotten mostly mixed reviews. I still say “Harmonium” gets this, with “Third Murder” and “Oh Lucy!” the most likely spoilers.

10. KAZAKHSTAN- “Returnee” Kazakh films do well at international film festivals, though these arthouse films don’t always get released at home. Kazakhstan doesn’t have any obvious contenders this year. Their most acclaimed film (“Road to Mother”) was released on September 29^th, 2016 meaning it was eligible for last year. I predict the Kazakhs send “The Returnee”, a drama about the oralman, ethnic Kazakhs from other countries (mostly China and Mongolia) who are invited by the Kazakh government to resettle in Kazakhstan. Although they are “Kazakhs” ethnically, these immigrants often have a difficult time adjusting to the more liberal and secular, Russified culture of Kazakhstan. It was the only Kazakh fiction feature at the Eurasian Film Festival (Kazakhstan’s largest) and it won Best Asian Film at the Fajr Film Festival in Iran. In second place is “Districts” (Rayony), a well-received crime drama by Akan Satayev, who has represented Kazakhstan twice before. A third option would be “The Plague at the Karatas Village”, an arty drama about a new mayor confronted with a strange village plague. It earned Kazakhstan a prestigious nomination for “Best Film From the CIS Countries” at the 2017 Russian Nika Awards. Less likely: taxi driver drama “4+1” (Busan 2016) and 3-hour biopic “Aktoty”.

11. KOREA- “Warriors of the Dawn” South Korea is the world’s greatest filmmaking nation that has never been nominated for an Oscar. They’ve tried everything- arthouse/festival darlings, big-budget war movies, big-budget costume dramas, mainstream box-office hits, comedies, dramas and action movies- but nothing works. This year, they’ve got a lot of contenders (including five by previously submitted directors, four that premiered at Cannes and two that premiered in Berlin), with no obvious frontrunner. The highest-profile Korean film of the year is “Okja”, starring Tilda Swinton, Jake Gyllenhaal and a flatulent, giant animated pig. It premiered at Cannes and is being called this year’s “E.T.” However because it may have premiered online and also has a lot of English, I don't think it will be considered. From Korea’s arthouse branch we have “Bacchus Lady” (Berlin 2016), “On the Beach At Night Alone” (Best Actress; Berlin 2017) and “The Day After” (Cannes 2017). The Koreans love their anti-Japanese history movies (e.g. “Anarchist From Colony”, “Snowy Road” and “Battleship Island”, all set in the colonial era, as well as “Warriors of the Dawn” set in the 16^th century), but they also sent one last year. And although they rarely send them to the Oscars, they have a number of crime dramas that could compete here like “The Merciless” (Cannes), box-office hit “New Trial”, corruption drama “Ordinary Person” (Moscow) and this summer’s upcoming “VIP”.  And it’s never wise to count out (1)- Song Kang-ho, who has starred in the Korean submissions the past two years and who stars in “Taxi Driver”, about a man driving a German journalist around during one of Korea’s most politically turbulent times, or (2)- Kim Ki-duk who should have two Oscar noms already for “Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring” and the disturbing “Pieta”. Kim has a new movie- “The Net”- about a North Korean fisherman who accidentally drifts into South Korean waters. It’s gotten good reviews, though they say it’s not his best film.  Ultimately, I think it will depend whether Korea wants to go large or small; set in 1592, “Warriors of the Dawn” is a splashy historical drama about mercenaries fighting against the Japanese with great battle scenes and high production values. It couldn’t be more different than “Bacchus Lady”, a comparatively low-budget film about the surprising Korean phenomena of elder prostitution, that has quietly gained strong notices since its Cannes debut over a year ago. I'll pick “Warriors” since Korea has tended to go glossy the last few years and "Bacchus is a bit disturbing. Rounding out the Top Five: Kim Ki-duk’s “The Net” , big-budget prison break drama “Battleship Island” and noirish police drama “Ordinary Person”. I wouldn’t count out festival films “The Day After” or “On the Beach At Night Alone” either, but reviews have been more mixed.

12. KYRGYZSTAN- “Centaur” Kyrgyzstan takes on the story of Don Quixote in "Centaur", a village drama about a man living with his wife and handicapped son, who secretly frees racehorses in the middle of the night. Director Aktan Arym Kubat (formerly known professionally as Aktan Abdykalykov) is the country’s best-known director and his films have represented the country three times.  Combine that with the fact the film won two awards in Berlin and was the country’s representative at Karlovy Vary, and “Centaur” looks like a shoo-in. Dark horse: “Finding Mother” has also gotten good notices (and some US screenings) for its story of a Kyrgyz orphan who goes to the United States to find his long-lost mother.  

13. MALAYSIA- “Interchange” Malaysia’s first-ever Oscar submission was a Malay-language fantasy film by ethnic Chinese director Teong Hin Saw. This year, most everyone would agree that Malaysia’s best film of the year is “You Mean the World to Me”, a semi-autobiographical drama about Saw’s difficult relationship with his mother. It has an all-star regional cast and is lensed by Wong Kar-wai cinematographer Christopher Doyle. In any other country, this critically-acclaimed family drama would be automatically be the country’s Oscar submission. But the film is about an ethnic Chinese family, and Malaysia has a system of pervasive legal and cultural discrimination against its Chinese and Indian ethnic minorities. I’d say it’s extremely unlikely they would select a Chinese-language film to represent the country, no matter how good it is (In 2014, Malaysia sent nothing, rather than send “The Journey”). However, things may be changing. Last year, a number of prominent Malay filmmakers threatened to boycott the Malaysian Film Festival in protest of the rule that only Malay-language films could compete in the main awards (Malaysian Chinese and Indian films would be relegated to a sort of Best Foreign Language Film category). Due to the controversy, the festival was forced to change the rules, and a Tamil-language film won. So, I hope I'm wrong. For now though, I still think the Malaysian Academy will seek to send a Malay film….Problem is, they don’t have much to choose from this year. One option is “Interchange” (Toronto 2016), a weird fantasy-mystery about a forensics photographer trying to solve a supernatural murder. Director Dain Said directed Malaysia’s second Oscar submission (“Bunohan”). Other possibilities: social dramas “Adiwiraku”, about a rural school and “Hijabsta Ballet”, about a young ballerina who insists on wearing a hijab when she dances. I’m definitely rooting for “You Mean the World to Me”, but ethnic prejudice means I’m going to predict “Interchange”, even though it hasn’t gotten great reviews. But then, most Malaysian films sent to the Oscars haven’t either.

14. MONGOLIA- “Children of Genghis” Mongolia hasn’t been on the Oscar list since 2005. Both their previous submissions were directed by Germany-based Byambasuren Davaa who got a Documentary Oscar nomination for “The Story of the Weeping Camel” after failing the make the shortlist for Foreign Film the year before. Davaa said in a 2017 interview that she is working on “several projects” but nothing is ready to start filming. She also mentioned that her next film may be a fiction film. The Mongolians began a new national film Awards this year, so perhaps that will inspire them to rejoin the Oscar race. This year, the two front-runners are “Faith”, a moral dilemma drama about the pervasiveness of corruption in Mongolia which won Best Picture at the new awards, and “Children of Genghis”, a US co-production which appears to be a sort of docudrama about Mongolian children learning the ancient sport of horse racing. I give the edge to “Genghis”.

15. NEPAL- “White Sun” Few countries this year have an easier decision than the Himalayan nation of Nepal, which is certain to submit “White Sun”, which has played at a dozen festivals since its premiere in Venice last August. It won the Interfilm Award there, as well as prizes at Palm Springs (Grand Jury Prize) and Singapore (Best Asian Film). This film, about a political activist burying his father amidst ancient traditions, family pressures, caste differences and the challenges of living under the new, post-war republican government, is said to be one of the best films ever made by a Nepali director. The Hollywood Reporter specifically noted in its review that the film could “go a fair distance” in the Foreign Language category. It’s a lock.

16. PAKISTAN- “Rahm” Pakistan is my home country until September 2nd, and I’ve had a wonderful year here. Unfortunately, although national cinema has really been improving, many Pakistanis still snobbishly say they won’t go and see local films. While here, I’ve tried to encourage people to support their local cinema industry.  I see five possibilities this year:  (1)- “Abdullah: The Final Witness”, a film based on a true story about an innocent truck driver convicted of the murder of several foreign citizens in Balochistan province. It was set to premiere in 2015 but was banned by the Pakistani censors until Fall 2016; (2)- “Gardaab”, a gritty thriller very loosely based on Romeo & Juliet, set amidst the slums of Karachi, (3)- “Rahm”, also based on a Shakespeare play (the less well-known “Measure for Measure”),  about a woman trying to save her innocent brother from being executed by a fanatical, religious governor, (4)- “Salute”,  based on the true story of a teenaged boy who died saving his school from a suicide bomber and (5)- the long-delayed “Saya-e-Khuda-e-Zuljalal” (aka “SKZ”…I predicted it two or three years ago), a nationalist action film about Pakistan's worsening relations with India between Pakistani independence in 1947 and the Indo-Pakistan War of 1965. Less likely: two-time Oscar winner Sharmeen Obaid Chinoy’s new animated film “3 Bahadur”, or upcoming revenge thriller “Wujood". In the past four years since Pakistan returned to the Oscar race (after a 50-year absence), Pakistan has selected one “indie” movie, and three arty but mainstream dramas. For that reason, I’m predicting a surprise nod for the relatively obscure “Rahm”, which has arguably gotten the strongest reviews and which is not controversial like “Abdullah” or “Salute”. I’ll rank the other Shakespearean adaptation- “Gardaab” – in second place with "SKZ" a strong third. 

17. PHILIPPINES- “Pedicab” I honestly don’t have a clue what the Philippines will send to the Oscars this year. They have a couple dozen mostly well-received films that have won awards at the country’s numerous awards shows and film festivals. Virtually none of them have been screened at any major film festivals (except “Pedicab”), and almost none of them have been reviewed by international critics. To make things more complicated, they have nine new films premiering at the Cinemalaya Film Festival in August, which often supplies many of their Oscar submissions. So, I'm definitely going to get this one wrong. I vaguely see the ten leading candidates (in alphabetical order) as “Apocalypse Child”, “Baconaua”, “Die Beautiful”, “Mercury is Mine”, “Mrs.”, “Patay na si Jesus”, “Pedicab”, “Right to Kill”, “The Sun Behind You” and “Women of the Weeping River”….but none of them seems especially likely. My prediction is “Pedicab”, but only because it won Best Picture at the Shanghai Film Festival. It’s a black comedy about a poor family moving from the slums of Manila, back to their home village. Reviews have been good but not great. My runner-ups: “Apocalypse Child”, about a youth in a surfing town who believes he was conceived during the filming of “Apocalypse Now”, “Women of the Weeping River”, a drama about a blood feud in a Muslim village which dominated the Gawan Urian Awards and “Die Beautiful”, by the director of “Bwakaw”, a surprisingly heartwarming comedy about a family trying to honor a transgender woman’s last wish to appear dressed as a different celebrity each night of her wake. The Philippines is the most confusing country in the world this year.

18. SINGAPORE- “A Yellow Bird” Tiny Singapore has submitted films six years in a row now, and appears to have become a regular participant in thi category. Although most of their films are made in Chinese or English, this year's two main contenders are in minority languages. The front-runner has got to be “A Yellow Bird”, which premiered in the International Critics Week section of the 2016 Cannes Film Festival. That’s a big deal for Singapore. The multilingual film is mostly in Tamil and focuses on an Indian Singaporean whose family rejects him after he is released from prison. Singapore likes to highlight its multicultural society and has never selected a director from the minority Indian community (although director Rajagopal was one of the short film directors who made the entertaining omnibus “7 Letters”). The problem is that “A Yellow Bird” hasn’t gotten very good reviews, with critics applauding the cinema verite style, but also calling the film slow, boring and/or difficult to watch. A fun, alternate choice would be the Thai-language “Pop Aye”, a road movie made in Thailand by Singaporean director Kirsten Tan. It delighted audiences when it premiered in Sundance and it's been getting great reviews around the world. Starring 50-something Thai singer Thaneth Warakulnukroh alongside a scene-stealing elephant, “Pop Aye” is an indie dramedy about a man travelling with his childhood friend (an elephant) on a road trip back to his hometown. I’m rooting for “Pop Aye”, but I think the more “authentically Singaporean” “Yellow Bird” will be Singapore’s submission.

19. SRI LANKA- “Aloko Udapadi” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a movie since 2009, despite a medium-sized film industry that annually produces several dozen films. They’ve only sent two films before- first an arthouse costume drama (“Mansion By the Lake”), followed by a more commercial effort (“The Road From Elephant Pass”). Their best movie of the year is said to be “Burning Birds’ (Busan, Tokyo, Rotterdam etc.), about a widow forced to care for a family of nine after her husband is abducted and killed by a paramilitary group. The director’s first film “Flying Fish” was banned in Sri Lanka by the previous government in 2011. There’s a more liberal regime in place now, but the film still hasn’t secured a local release. So, if the Sri Lankans do elect to send a movie, it will probably be big-budget historical drama “Aloko Udapadi”, set in 89BC in an ancient kingdom replete with palace intrigue, or the arthouse “Dirty Yellow Darkness” about a man with mental illness struggling to win back his wife. This really should be “Burning Birds”, but I’ll guess “Aloko Udapadi”.  

20. TAIWAN- “The Road to Mandalay” Taiwan has a wide open race, with every possible genre in contention to represent the island- comedy (“Village of No Return”), theatre of the absurd (“The Great Buddha”), straight drama (“Gangster’s Daughter”, “Missing Johnny”), arthouse (“Road to Mandalay”, “White Ant”), road movie (“Godspeed”), thriller (“The Last Painting”), musical (“52Hz, I Love You”), and even an unlikely horror film (“Mon Mon Mon Monsters”). Most of their top contenders were screened at the Taipei Film Festival, where the bizarre B&W “The Great Buddha” was the unexpected winner of both the festival's Grand Prize, and Best Fiction Feature in the Taiwanese film competition. “Road to Mandalay”, about two Burmese migrants living illegally in Thailand, has been the most acclaimed movie of the year from international critics, while “Godspeed” managed an impressive number of nominations (including Best Picture) at the Asian Film Awards and the Golden Horse Film Festival (losing both to films from Mainland China). The directors of black comedy “Godspeed” (about a man dealing drugs by hiring a sleep-deprived taxi driver to take him from one side of the island to the other and back, in 24 hours) and the Burmese-language “Road to Mandalay” have both been selected before. I’m unsure what Taiwan will do. “The Great Buddha” just looks too weird. Wei Te-sheng got Taiwan to the shortlist for “Seediq Bale” but his latest- “52Hz”- didn’t get great reviews. Taiwan-based Burmese director Midi Z. was selected in 2014, and selecting a non-Taiwanese twice in four years might be perceived negatively. It’s a confusing year, but I’m going to predict Midi Z. gets this for “Road to Mandalay”, with murder mystery “The Last Painting” and Taipei winner “Great Buddha”  not far behind. Less likely: taxi comedy “Godspeed” and “Missing Johnny”, about a number of characters whose lives intersect in Taipei. That last one won four awards in Taipei. I personally am most looking forward to see quirky comedy “Village of No Return”, about a con artist who brings a magical machine to a small village that causes people to forget all their bad memories, worries and responsibilities. 

21. TAJIKISTAN- “Monkey’s Dream” Tajikistan hasn’t submitted a movie since 2005, but their biennial Didor International Film Festival featured no less than four new films. So, here’s hoping Tajikistan returns to the Oscar race with the Russian-language horror-drama “Monkey’s Dream”, a local retelling of the famous short story “The Monkey’s Paw”, about an Oriental relic that grants its owner three (cursed) wishes. Sadly, Tajikistan's most famous international director, Bakhtyar Khudojnazarov,died in 2015.

22. THAILAND- “By The Time It Gets Dark” Thailand has probably had the weakest film year of the major Asian countries, so they don’t have much to choose from. Most of their film output consists of silly comedies replete with ghosts and drag queens, a huge number of horror films and the odd martial arts action movie. I think that the Thais will send “By The Time It Gets Dark”, a drama that won Best Picture and Best Director at this year’s National Film Awards. Set in the 1970s, it’s about student protests against the Thai military junta, and it’s been praised for its unique, dreamlike style of cinematography. However, since 2014 Thailand has once again been ruled by a military junta, which has been busy putting down protests and clamping down on dissidents, so this film may be a little too close to home. “Bad Genius” isn’t a typical Oscar submission- it’s a youthful heist thriller- but it’s gotten surprisingly good reviews, it has rocked the Thai box office and won Best Picture at the New York Asian Film Festival, so that’s probably their second-best option. Other possibilites: romantic drama “A Gas Station” (Busan) and romantic anthology “The Gift”, featuring music composed by the late King. Less likely: indie drama “Fail Stage” and Burma co-production “From Bangkok to Mandalay”. One potential dark horse: Thailand selected a film by an American director in 2015 so they could send critically acclaimed elephant comedy “Pop Aye” made in Thailand by Singaporean director Kirsten Tan. That would actually be a very smart move.

23. VIETNAM- “Father and Son” Vietnam’s film industry used to be dominated by dull state-sponsored dramas about Vietnamese history, and the occasional arthouse film made by Vietnamese directors based overseas. No longer. Vietnam has a local film industry catering to local tastes, dominated by local romantic comedies and action movies of the type that are popular all over Asia and around the world. 18 movies competed at the national Silver Kite Awards this year, and there wasn’t a Vietnam War movie in sight. The awards were dominated by rom-coms “Saigon, I Love You” and “12 Zodiac”. “Saigon, I Love You”, an omnibus of five romantic stories (including a gay couple, and one foreigner) centered around Ho Chi Minh City, was a local box-office hit and is eligible this year. It’s possible, but I think the Vietnamese Academy will go with something more serious. Vietnam’s “The Way Station”, a heavy drama about a series of characters from all over Vietnam who find themselves in a small seaside village,  won the third biannual ASEAN International Film Festival, and was one of three new features introduced at Vietnam’s first-ever Cannes pavilion in May (the others were “Cu Li Never Cries” and “The Third Wife”, which was the recipient of a prestigious grant from Spike Lee's production company). In the end, I think “Saigon” will be too light and the “The Way Station” (with its sexual themes) will be too heavy. And “The Third Wife”, about a 19^th century girl forced to marry an older man, probably won’t be released in Vietnam until next year. So my prediction for Vietnam is “Father and Son”, a slice-of-life drama about a poor, widower fisherman raising his son in a small village, when his son suddenly falls ill. It’s serious, non-controversial and pretty. 

FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS (Eastern Europe)

Here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe. With the official recognition of Kosovo by AMPAS in 2014, every country in the region has participated at least once. All countries have submitted a film at least once in the past three years, except Belarus.

1. ALBANIA- “Distant Angels” Albania’s front-runner is clearly the recently premiered “Distant Angels”, the first film by Gjergj Xhuvani (“Slogans”, “East West East”) in eight years, and the first Albanian-language film in seven years of local movie star and heartthrob Nik Xhelilaj (now based in Berlin). "Distant Angels" focuses on the war in neighboring Kosovo in the 1990s, and its effect on the ethnic Albanians making up the majority of the people there. This is an issue close to the heart of the Albanian people and it's a shoo-in to represent Albania, unless it’s claimed by neighboring Kosovo, which co-produced the film. The only films that could potentially challenge are historical drama “The Delegation” (which hasn’t premiered yet) and murder mystery “Shadows”. But “Distant Angels” should get this easily. 

2. ARMENIA- “The Last Wish” Armenia tried to rejoin the Oscar race last year with the exciting disaster movie “Earthquake”. In a bizarre decision, AMPAS determined that the film, in Armenian and Russian, which had an Armenian director, a mostly Armenian crew,  and was about one of the most important moments in Armenian history, was a majority Russian film. It certainly was a Russian co-production, but I can think of a dozen recent submissions from every region of the world that were “less” from a country than this one. This year, I was going to predict Vigen Chaldranyan’s “Alter Ego”, about a writer researching the life of a famous composer killed during the Armenian Genocide, or “The Line”, an acclaimed film about the war in Nagorno Karabakh which dominated the new Anahit Armenian Film Awards (a new rival to the Hayak Awards) in December. These two films are among the three local Armenian features at the 2017 Golden Apricot Film Festival (recently rocked by an anti-LGBT censorship scandal). However, it appears both of these front-runners were released too early (which makes it extra sad that Armenia was disqualified this year, in what may have been their best film year since independence).  So, I’m confused what they might send. Armenia likes documentaries, but even their front-runner doc- “Deadlock”- about the tribulations of a disillusioned Armenian immigrant in the USA was also released too early. It won Best Director and Best Documentary at the Anahit Awards. So, I’ve decided to predict Syrian refugee documentary ”The Last Wish” (Վերջին ցանկություն). Other possibilities include “The Last Inhabitant”, which submitted itself for consideration against “Earthquake” last year, but didn’t end up premiering in cinemas until November. It’s about a village that was all but abandoned by its inhabitants during the war against Azerbaijan. They could also send action-comedy “Bravo Virtuoso” (the third Armenian feature screened at the Golden Apricots), or new drama “Good Morning” (which lost Best Picture to “The Line”).

3. AZERBAIJAN- “The Pomegranate Orchard” Azerbaijan has been absent from the Oscar race the past two years despite a rising international profile, and some fairly strong domestic films. This year, they had a rare film at a Class-A festival- “The Pomegranate Orchard”, which was the Opening Film in the “East of the West” Section at Karlovy Vary. Director Ilgar Najaf has been nominated before (for the dull but well-meaning “Buta”) so on paper, this looks like their most likely submission. It’s a modern-day variation on Chekhov’s “The Cherry Orchard” about an old man living peacefully with his daughter-in-law, when his estranged son arrives to bring his wife and family to Russia. However, Azerbaijan has ignored Karlovy Vary movies before (“40th Door”, “Down the River”) so it’s possible they’ll prefer to send something like “The Red Garden”, about a man whose desperate desire for a son of his own leads him to acts of cruelty against his wife and foster son, or “Üçüncü günün adamı” (Man of the Third Day) about the Karabakh War. “Garden” garnered Azerbaijan a 2017 Nika nomination for Best CIS Film. I'm also confused as to the domestic release date of “Inner City”, which has variously been reported as March 2016 or February 2017. Directed by Ilgar Safat (“The Precinct”), it’s a noirish love story about a young woman who falls for an unstable war veteran twice her age. Not eligible: UK director Asif Kapadia’s lavish romance “Ali and Nino” is set in Azerbaijan but doesn’t seem to have any major Azerbaijani crew. I’ll guess Azerbaijan sends “Orchard”.

4. BELARUS- “Red Dog” Grumpy Belarus hasn’t submitted a film in this category since 1996 (no other European country has been absent for more than a few years). The country- known as the last dictatorship in Europe- opened up a bit this year (allowing Europeans and Americans to visit the country visa-free) but I don’t see that they have any movies that would coax them back into the Oscar race. For the sake of completion, I choose “Red Dog” (aka “Dog Brown” or Пёс рыжий), the true story of an elite K-9 unit of dogs that were used by the Soviets to plant bombs and launch attacks in wartime (WWII?? Not sure...). The film was made in Russian and released in both Russian and dubbed English versions. Other eligible films that show the existence of a local film industry: “Shadow of the Enemy” (Тень врага), about Soviet spies trying to defeat the Nazis, and teen comedy “Party-zan”, which looks like a sort of Belarusian "American Pie".

5. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Men Don’t Cry” Bosnia-Herzegovina is almost certain to send “Men Don’t Cry”, a fascinating new drama that opened the Main Competition at Karlovy Vary. It’s about a talk therapy group hosted in a remote mountain location, bringing together war veterans who fought on all three sides (Bosniak, Serb and Croat) of the Bosnian Civil War of the 1990s. Few “talky” subjects have the potential  to be more tense and exciting. If “Men” doesn’t get a qualifying release, other options include “All the Cities of the North” (which may be handicapped by the fact that it’s from the renegade Bosnian Serb Republic) and “Birds Like Us”, Bosnia’s first animated film. The Sarajevo Film Festival lineup should be announced next week, which may reveal some additional contenders.  Unless Bosnia has something else new premiering in Sarajevo (i.e. Aida Begic’s “Never Leave Me”, her upcoming Arabic-language film about the war in Syria), "Men" should easily win the race to represent Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

6. BULGARIA- “Glory” Bulgaria made it to the shortlist just once with Stephan Komandarev’s “The World is Big and Salvation Lies Around the Corner” (a good movie but one that I found fairly forgettable). Komandarev’s new taxi driver movie “Directions” got good reviews at Cannes, but it will probably tour the international film festival circuit for awhile before it gets released in Bulgaria. That's what happened with “The Judgment” a few years ago, but you can pencil it in to represent Bulgaria next year.  This year is a three-way race between audience favorite “Glory”, arthouse favorite “Godless” and an obscure local B&W title- “Memories of Fear”- that swept the local Academy Awards in June. The latter film beat out the other two for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay. Set in the 1960s, it's a satirical look at censorship and misery during the Communist era. It should surprise nobody that director Ivan Pavlov is the President of the Union of Bulgarian Filmmakers, which coincidentally also manages the awards. “Godless” won the Golden Leopard at Locarno 2016- a rare (perhaps first??) Class-A festival win for a Bulgarian film, and it also won Best Bulgarian Film at both the Sofia and Varna Film Festivals. It tells the story of an amoral drug-addled nurse who sells the ID cards of her elderly patients for money, who is suddenly confronted with a serious moral dilemma. "Glory" also aims to shed a light on the negative and corrupt aspects of modern Bulgarian society, but with a slightly lighter touch. It's about an introverted railway worker who accidentally becomes a media celebrity when he returns a large sum of lost cash. It won Best Screenplay in Sofia and has played at innumerable festivals around the world (including Locarno where it lost the Grand Prize to “Godless”, but won a Special Mention). The Bulgarian Academy has a reputation for favoring senior, well-connected directors (Pavlov is 70 and has been selected before….the female helmers of “Godless” and “Glory” are thirty years younger) so I worry that “Memories” will get this. But for now I’m predicting the Bulgarians select “Glory”, with “Godless” in second, “Memories” in third and “The Singing Shoes” (Jury Prize, Moscow 2016), about a man who discovers his late wife was forcibly recruited into being a Communist informant, a distant fourth.

7. CROATIA- “The Constitution” Croatia has sent movies to the Oscars every year without luck since their independence was recognized in 1992, and all but two of these movies competed at their national Pula Film Festival (one was in 1994, when the festival was canceled due to war, and the other was a children’s cartoon in 1997). They don’t always choose the Best Picture winner at Pula (in fact, they rarely do) but with the winners scheduled to be announced on July 22^nd, we should have a better idea of which new films will be competitive. For now, I’m predicting “The Constitution”, which won the Grand Prize at the Montreal Film Festival for its story of four characters- including a gay nationalist and a minority Serb- whose interpersonal relationships reflect Croatia's history, its prejudices and its future. I think most people are predicting “Quit Staring at My Plate”, a drama about a “white trash” family taking care of their overbearing father after a stroke. I know it played at the bigger Venice Film Festival, but reviews haven’t been as good as “The Constitution”.  Croatia will probably select one of these two, but three other notable contenders include “All the Best”, a family dramedy which won five awards at last year’s Pula Film Festival before opening in theatres in December 2016, “Agape” (directed by three-time Croatian rep Branko Schmidt) about a boy who accuses a priest of sexual assault when he feels he isn’t getting enough attention, and “Dead Fish Float on Their Backs”, a B&W drama about the effect of a bizarre suicide on village residents (reportedly featuring 42 characters!).  Less likely: drama “Goran”, about a taxi driver taking care of his sick wife, and romantic black comedy “Ministry of Love”. Dalibor Matanic and Arsen Anton Ostojić have been selected to represent Croatia a total of five times but I don’t think Matanic’s horror film “Exorcism” will be selected, and Ostojic’s “F20” won’t premiere until next year.

8. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Barefoot” The Czech Republic made quite a big deal of the fact that “Little Crusader” (which opens in Czech cinemas in August) was the first Czech film to win the Grand Prize at their prestigious Karlovy Vary International Film Festival in fifteen years. Based on an obscure poem, it’s an historical drama about a medieval knight searching for his missing son. Watching the film has been described by Variety as “hard work” and by Cineuropa as “an intriguing mix of symbols”. That probably makes this film it a non-starter with American audiences, but since the Czechs have proudly sent films about talking pigeons and meat puppets, it’s very possible they’ll also send “Crusader”. However, I’m going to predict they send Jan Sverak’s upcoming film “Barefoot”, about an 8-year old sent to the countryside to avoid the worst of the fighting during WWII. Sverak won an Oscar for “Kolya” two decades ago, but hasn't had a film sent to the Oscars since 2001. However, with cute children, humor and a WWII background, “Barefoot” sounds like a mix of everything that Oscar likes best. In third place is “A Prominent Patient” which both the Czechs and Slovaks consider to be a majority national production (it’s probably 50-50) and which could be submitted by either country. With a Czech director (and a super competitive year in Slovakia) and a win at this year’s Czech Lions, the film definitely seems more "Czech". It's about a Czech diplomat in London in 1938 when the Allied Powers capitulated to Hitler. In fourth place, we have Bohdan Slama’s dramedy “Ice Mother”, about a widow finding love late in life. Slama was selected in 2002 and 2005 for similar village dramedies. All three of these films (“Barefoot”, “Patient” and “Mother”) definitely stand a better chance with the American Academy than the abstract,arty “Crusader”. Rounding out the Top Five: “Garden Store: Family Friend”, a historical melodrama directed by the prolific Jan Hrebejk (who repped the Czechs in 2000, 2004 and 2010, scoring one Oscar nod) about women waiting for their POW husbands to return. It’s the first film of a trilogy, all three of which will be released in 2017.

9. ESTONIA- “November” Estonia appears to have five eligible films, although there are a few more that might be released at the end of the eligibility period. I’m predicting this will be a two-way race. On one hand, Estonia has the weird, Gothic folklore-infused “November”, which looks like a cross between a Grimm fairy tale and a David Lynch film. Filmed in black and white, it won Best Cinematography at the Tribeca Film Festival. Its fans swear that it’s more accessible than it looks from the trailer. Then there’s “A Man Who Looks Like Me”, a tragicomedy about a man and his estranged father, who end up competing for the attentions of the same girl. Estonia likes things weird (“The Temptation of St. Tony”, anyone?) but “A Man Who Looks Like Me” is more likely to find favor with the Academy. Both were at Karlovy Vary. I predict they go with “November”, which fits the pattern of their often quirky Estonian submissions. The other three released films (comedy “The Dissidents”, rom-com “When You Least Expect It” and psychological drama “Pretenders”) won’t come into play, but the upcoming “The Man Slayer. The Virgin. The Shadow” by previously submitted director Sulev Keedus could beat them all if it's released in time. According to its Facebook page, its release date has been pushed back from September to October, which is good news for "November"! 

10. GEORGIA- “Khibula” Georgia has a quintet of prospective contenders, including three by previously submitted directors- “Gogita’s New Life” (Levan Koguashvili, who directed the brilliant low-budget masterpiece “Street Days”), “Khibula” (George Ovashvili, who was shortlisted for the dreary “Corn Island”) and “My Happy Family” (Nana Ekvtimishvili, who directed the dull “In Bloom”). The other two candidates are “Dede” (the feature debut of Mariam Khatchvani) and “Hostages” (Rezo Gigineishvili). The fact that Ovashvili got Georgia to the shortlist stage for the first time in twenty years automatically makes him the frontrunner (Variety said as much in their review) for “Khibula” (Karlovy Vary), a fictional (and ultimately allegorical) account of the flight of Georgia’s controversial post-Soviet president Gamsakhurdia. Critics note it’s not necessarily an easy film to watch (neither was “Corn Island”) and some local knowledge is beneficial. Not everyone likes the film (Gamsakhurdia is a controversial figure in Georgia) so in second place I have family drama “My Happy Family” (Berlin Forum, Sundance, many others), about a 50-something woman undergoing a midlife crisis, and who feels suffocated by her marriage and her overbearing family. It’s a strong dark horse to knock “Khibula” off its pedestal. In third place is “Dede” (Karlovy Vary), a culturally rich drama in the endangered Svan language about a woman fought over by men in a very remote and traditional part of the country. Critics say it’s exotic, fascinating but maybe slightly unpolished. Rounding out the Top Five will be action-thriller “Hostages”, a real-life thriller about a 1983 air hijacking by anti-Soviet intellectuals, and documentary “Gogita’s New Life”, about an ex-con seeking to readjust to modern-day life. It’s a competitive year for the Georgians! Georgia’s Zaza Urushadze brought Estonia an Oscar nomination for “Tangerines” but his new film “The Confession” (aka “The Monk”) won’t premiere by September 30. 

11. HUNGARY- “1945” Hungary has a competitive two-way race between two titles that premiered at the Berlin Film Festival this year. The obvious Hungarian nominee is “On Body and Soul”, a weird, weird, artsy love story set in a slaughterhouse in the countryside. It won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Film Festival, which is normally enough to guarantee you the right to represent your country at the Oscars (unless your film is banned at home like Jafar Panahi’s “Taxi”). However, director Ildiko Enyedi has gained just as much publicity for her scathing remarks against the Hungarian government, leading some to believe that the government-linked selection committee won’t select her film because of it. However, I just think that AMPAS will hate this quirky, arty love story and will prefer what they usually like from Eastern Europe- the Jewish experience in World War II. Therefore, I think the smart submission for Hungary (and the film they will eventually choose) is actually “1945” (Berlin Panorama), a B&W drama set in Hungary right after World War II, when a village wedding is interrupted by the return of a few Jewish residents who were presumed dead in the Holocaust (and whose homes and property have been taken by greedy but (possibly) remorseful residents). “1945” has gotten solid reviews from critics and, even if they aren’t quite as good as “On Body and Soul”, it is much more likely to appeal to Oscar voters. So I think “1945” is in. Some people are predicting Syrian refugee fantasy-drama “Jupiter’s Moon”, but I just can’t that film (or any other) competing with these two major movies.

12. KOSOVO- “Unwanted” Kosovo, Eastern Europe’s newest nation, has a very small (but growing) film industry. For the past two years, they’ve selected films that premiered in Karlovy Vary. Their highest profile film of the year- “Unwanted”- was also their representative at Karlovy Vary 2017, so it makes sense that this will be the Kosovar submission. “Unwanted” is about a Kosovar refugee woman in the Netherlands, her son, who only speaks Dutch, and his complicated relationship with a local girl and with Dutch society as a whole. A co-production with the Netherlands, the integration of refugees in Western Europe is a topical issue that should be of interest to viewers. There’s a slight possibility that Kosovo may try to claim Albania’s Kosovo war drama “Distant Angels” as their own, but I think that will be ultimately be selected by Albania.

13. LATVIA- “Chronicles of Melanie” Latvia has one potential blockbuster coming out this year- Aigars Grauba’s historical drama about the Crusades, “King’s Ring”, which is scheduled to premiere in November 2017. You can mark that one down for Latvia next year. This year, they will send “Chronicles of Melanie” a drama about the 1941 Soviet deportations of ethnic Latvians to work camps in Siberia. The film focuses on one middle-class woman and her 8-year old son, who are forcibly separated from her husband and her father. Latvia doesn’t have much else so this should be an easy decision for them.

14. LITHUANIA- “The Saint” Lithuania held their Silver Crane Awards in June and the big winner was “The Saint”, which won Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and three of the four Acting Awards. It’s a drama set during the 2008 economic crisis in which a husband and father has a difficult time adjusting to unemployment when he is laid off from his job. All those awards make it the front-runner, but Lithuania does have a few other possibilities. Nationalist drama “Emilia” is about the struggle for Lithuanian independence from the Soviet Union. It lost most of its Silver Crane nominations to “The Saint”, but it’s certainly a more stirring subject for the average Lithuanian and the film topped the local box-office for two weeks. As for Sarunas Bartas’ "Frost" (co-starring Vanessa Paradis), the film made it to Cannes but got bad reviews so I don't see it competing here. Lithuania has selected two documentary shorts in the past, which means “Woman and the Glacier” (Karlovy Vary), a 56-minute documentary about a Lithuanian scientist who has been studying climate change at a remote scientific station in Kazakhstan since the days of the USSR, a definite possibility. Last but not least is “Miracle”, which has the intriguing tagline “About pigs and miracles!” Scheduled for release this autumn, it's a comedy-drama about a woman struggling to keep a village farm company in business, who is seduced by the promises of a charismatic American investor who claims he will be bailing out the collective. All four of these have a chance, but it would be foolish to bet against “The Saint”.  

15. MACEDONIA- “When the Day Had No Name” Macedonia rarely has films at international film festivals so the fact that bleak drama “When the Day Had No Name” competed in the Panorama Section of the Berlin Film Festival means that it is automatically the front-runner for Macedonia.  The film is based on a true story in which a group of local teenagers ended up murdered due to ethnic tensions that nearly led to civil war. I'd be more interested in seeing “Golden Five”, about the investigation of a cold case series of murders that took place fifty years before. It got better reviews than "Name", but I still think the Berlinale appearance will mean that it will win out. Dark horse: the upcoming, absurdist black comedy “Year of the Monkey”, by the same team that made Macedonia’s wacky Oscar submission “Punk Is Not Dead” in 2011.

16. MOLDOVA- “Eastern Business” Moldova used to produce a single feature film every few years, but production is now up to two or three annually. This year, the two front-runners are buddy road comedy “Eastern Business” and low-budget relationship drama “Resentment”. Black comedy “Eastern Business” has played at a number of festivals (including Transylvania and Tallinn Black Nights). It's about two Moldovan guys who set off on a chaotic road trip to try and make some extra money. “Resentment" is a drama about a Moldovan mail-order bride whose husband disappears after joining the Transnistria conflict as a mercenary. That sounds like a more Oscar-appropriate film, but it hasn’t been released yet. Add to that the fact that the team behind “Eastern Business” is more professionally known (Igor Cobileanski directed Moldova’s most recent Oscar submission in 2014) and “Business” should be Moldova’s third-ever entry to the Oscar race.

17. MONTENEGRO- “Vrijeme između nas” Montenegro has a population of only 600,000 people, so most of their films are co-productions with larger ex-Yugoslav republics like Serbia and Croatia. The government established a National Film Center late last year so film is theoretically a growing priority, but they don’t have much to send this year. Two Serbian films by Montenegrin-born directors- “Diamond of Boyana” and “The Samurai in Autumn”- are the only eligible films released so far. “Diamond” is a fairly commercial romantic comedy about a man on a road trip to meet the jewel thief father he long believed to be dead, and “Samurai” is a “romantic, martial arts film”. Before September 30^th,  I expect we'll also see the release of slapstick action-comedy “The Books of Books” (starring a local TV comedy troupe). But none of these films seems likely. Montenegro also has an upcoming drama “The Time Between Us” (Vrijeme između nas), which tells three different stories of fathers and sons, set at the end of WWII, the end of the Cold War and in the present-day. Serbian actor Lazar Ristovski has a small role. Obviously “Time” will get this if it’s released. If not, it's possible that Montenegro will take the year off. 

18. POLAND- “Hatred” Poland has a competitive race between Agnieszka Holland’s crime thriller/murder mystery “Spoor” and Wojciech Smarzowski’s controversial historical film “Hatred”, which dominated the 2017 Polish Eagle Awards. Within Poland itself, “Hatred” has gotten much better reviews,  and its WWII subject will be of much greater interest to the Academy. “Spoor”, which competed in Berlin, has bigger names (director Agnieszka Holland has been nominated for three Oscars- twice for Foreign Film and once for Best Screenplay) and much more festival play.  I think the weightiness of the subject of "Hatred” will lead to its selection. It’s the story of a multi-ethnic village of Poles, Ukrainians and Jews on the eve of WWII, and how the war subsequently devastates relations between the ethnic groups, personal relationships and, of course, the whole of Poland and Ukraine. Ukraine, upset by the portrayal of Ukrainians, banned the film, saying that it will “harm public security”, annoying Poland and giving them another reason to pick it. “Spoor” has gotten good reviews for its story of an older woman investigating the murders of a local hunting club, but not more than that. If it wasn’t for Holland, the film would quickly be forgotten. I really can’t see Poland selecting anything else, but the rest of the top five contenders would be “Wild Roses”, a twisty adoption drama featuring a woman who gets pregnant while her husband is working overseas, serial killer drama “I Am A Killer” and splashy musical “Bodo”.  

19. ROMANIA- “Ana, mon amour” Winner of the Silver Berlin Bear, “Ana, mon amour” follows a young couple as they fall in love and subsequently have to deal with the young woman’s worsening mental illness. It’s directed by Calin Peter Netzer, who also made “Child’s Pose”, one of the more accessible films of the Romanian New Wave. “Ana” isn’t as acclaimed as his earlier film, but the Silver Bear should boost it to the top of Romania’s list. It’s been a fairly quiet year for Romania (they were completely absent from Cannes and Venice) so “Ana” should get this, unless something new pops up at the end of the year. Two potential challengers are “Breaking News”, the only Romanian feature in competition at Karlovy Vary, and uproarious comedy “6.9 on the Richter Scale”. “Breaking News”, a Romanian New Wave film about a journalist bonding with the son of a recently deceased colleague, is said to be good, but a minor New Wave effort. “Richter Scale” has gotten great reviews, and Caranfil has been selected twice before, but the film is a comedy meant to appeal to local audiences. Cineuropa compares it to Almodovar’s “I’m So Excited”- supremely entertaining but unlikely to win awards. Less likely: “The Fixer” (Toronto) is about journalists doing a story on a recently repatriated prostitute,  “Marita” is a family drama that won the East of the West competition at Karlovy Vary 2017, “One Step Behind the Seraphim”, is a coming-of-age drama set at a conservative university and “Scarred Hearts” (Jury Prize in Locarno) is a story about an unexpected romance that develops in a hospice for dying patients in 1937 Romania.

20. RUSSIA- "Loveless" Russia is the most difficult of these countries to predict not only because they produce the largest number of films, but also also because there are conflicting stories about how influenced the Russian committee is by domestic politics. Often, the Russian Academy will select a grizzled, Soviet-style Putin supporter like Nikita Mikhalkov or Karen Shakhnazarov for a film nobody really likes. But in 2014, they showed that they were willing to consider films made by anti-Putin directors like “Leviathan” if it meant that Russia had a better chance at winning an Oscar. This year’s two most critically acclaimed movies are both by directors linked to the opposition, namely “The Student” and “Loveless”. With the director of “The Student” in jail on (possibly politically motivated) corruption charges, the most likely Russian submission this year is “Loveless”, made by Andrey Zvyagintsev, the same director as “Leviathan”. I didn’t really care for “Leviathan” but everyone else did (including Oscar) and “Loveless”, about a divorcing couple searching for their missing son, has gotten even better reviews. Bottom line: Unlike China, Russia is a confident country which does not micromanage their international image. Also, by selecting a “subversive” film to an international awards show, they can claim that, after all, there is no censorship in Russia. In a fairly weak year, odds look good for “Loveless”. However, if they decide they want to reward a more politically connected director, they could consider (1)- action drama “Viking” (Andrey Kravchuk), a hit action movie with middling reviews, but whose set was visited by President Putin and which has been successfully sold to a number of countries, (2)- sci-fi thriller "Attraction", director by Fedor Bondarchuk, who has been selected twice for action movies, or (3)-  Karen Shakhnazarov’s “Anna Karenina: Vronsky’s Story”, telling a different perspective of the famed Tolstoy novel. Russia also has other options that have gotten much better reviews than these three, including “Spacewalk”, a look at the Cold War “space race” from a Russian perspective, romantic drama “Arrhthmia” (Grand Prize in Sochi) and “Closeness” (Cannes 2017), about a family dealing with a kidnapping for ransom in the obscure Kabardino-Balkaria Republic. I’m hesitantly predicting “Loveless”, followed by “Spacewalk” and the potentially embarrassing “Viking”.

21. SERBIA- “Requiem for Mrs. J” On paper, Serbia’s most prominent film of the year is easily “On the Milky Road”, directed by Emir Kusturica, the acclaimed director whose films represented Yugoslavia four times, including Oscar nominee “When Father Was Away on Business”. It co-stars Italian actress Monica Bellucci. However, the film has gotten middling reviews and (as the review from Variety states all too clearly) Kusturica’s films over the past decade haven’t been great. Serbia changed its nomination process a few years ago, and now only films that pay a hefty entry fee will be considered by the Serbian Academy. So, a lot depends on which producers are willing to take the risk. This year, the four front-runners are a pair of dark comedies (box-office hit “Herd” and festival hit “Requiem for Mrs. J”) as well as two dramas- “Santa Maria Della Salute” and “The Return”.  The best reviews of the year have gone to "Mrs. J" (Berlin, Karlovy Vary, Sofia), about a widow planning to commit suicide to join her late husband. Festival films like this one are the ones most likely to benefit from a spot on the Oscar list, but if “Mrs. J” doesn’t pay up, “The Return”, a thriller about an immigrant who returns to Serbia after 40- years living in America, should get the nod.  Hit comedy "Herd", about life in the entertainment industry, and “Santa Maria”, a period love story made by a respected 84-year old director, will likely finish third and fourth. Unlikely: Goran Paskaljevic is a great director but his latest film “Land of the Gods” is set in India and unlikely to rep the nationalist Serbians. Upcoming dramas “About Bugs and Heroes” and cross-cultural romance “The Misunderstanding” aren’t scheduled to open until December, according to IMDB.

22. SLOVAKIA- “The Line” Slovakia deserved to win an Oscar last year for “Eva Nova”, but this terribly sad, darkly comic and ultimately hopeful (yes! All three!) drama was ignored as many of the best films often are. Slovakia produces about eight fiction features a year, hosts its own annual film awards, and regularly sees its films screen at major festivals like Cannes (“Out”) and Berlin (“A Prominent Patient” and “Little Harbour”). Variety recently wrote a cautiously optimistic article about the country’s cinematic future. This year, the Slovaks have a strong slate of eligible films- I count no less than eight real contenders. The Slovak Academy seems to be a grim bunch; over the past decade, they have selected mostly sad stories with bleak cinematography and a docudrama style of filmmaking. That would seem to bode well for “Filthy” (Rotterdam), about the traumatic aftermath of a rape, “A Hole in My Head”, a documentary about Roma Holocaust survivors, and “Little Harbour” (Dir: Iveta Grofova, selected in 2012; Berlinale KPlus) about an abused little girl who kidnaps two babies to raise as her own. These are the sort of films that Slovakia usually picks. However, Slovakia will be hard-pressed to ignore the festival attention garnered by action-thriller “The Line” (the only Slovak film in the main competition at Karlovy Vary), absurdist odyssey “Out” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard) and Czech-language historical drama “A Prominent Patient” (Berlin Special Screening) , a co-production which received Best Picture nominations at both the Czech and Slovak national film awards. In any other year, family drama “Nina” and thriller “Kidnapping” would also be competitive. It’s an embarrassment of riches. I predict Slovakia makes a surprise pick with “The Line”, about the lives of smugglers and traffickers on the Slovak-Ukrainian border when this obscure frontier suddenly became an EU border. I admit it’s definitely not what they usually go for, but it's probably their true best film of the year. Rounding out the Top Five:  the quirky “Out” and documentary “A Hole in the Head”, followed by “Little Harbour” and dysfunctional family drama “Nina".

23. SLOVENIA- “Nightlife” Slovenia has a wide-open race this year. As of July, they’ve released five eligible films ("Come Along", "A Comedy of Tears," "Nightlife", "Nika" and "Pr’Hostar") and there are another half dozen that may or may not be released in the next two months. So, what they choose depends a lot on what gets released before September 30. Out of these five, the front-runner is probably “Nightlife”, a film-noir thriller about a morally conflicted lawyer who is found murdered. It has gotten mixed-to-positive reviews but Damjan Kozole managed to win Best Director at Karlovy Vary 2016 and at the national Vesna Awards. He repped Slovenia at the Oscars in 2003 for the underrated human trafficking drama “Spare Parts”. But the year isn’t over yet, and I definitely think that several of the upcoming releases could easily beat “Nightlife” which was released last year and has lost its buzz. Family dramas “The Basics of Killing” and “Ivan” were made by Slovenian directors who have represented the country before, and “The Miner” is about a Bosnian refugee in Slovenia who discovers mass graves left over from WWII in the mines where he works.  It’s impossible to predict Slovenia without knowing which of these (if any) gets released.  In the end, I’ll predict “Nightlife” since I know it’s eligible, with “The Basics of Killing” (directed by two-time Oscar rep Jan Cvitkovic, about a marriage falling apart), “The Miner”, multi-story “Perseverance” and teen wilderness thriller “Come Along” rounding out the Top Five.

24. UKRAINE- “Falling” Ukraine is likely to send “Falling” which was the country’s sole representative at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival and one of two national representatives in the main competition of the local Odessa Film Festival. It’s an artsy love story focusing on young people growing up in today’s aimless, unstable Ukraine, specifically a young musician who goes to the countryside to live with his grandfather in lieu of "rehab", where he falls in love with a local girl who is preparing to emigrate to the West. Running a close second is “Black Level”, directed by one of the producers of the acclaimed (and famously snubbed) sign-language drama “The Tribe”. It's a slice-of-life drama about a Ukrainian photographer. Ukraine usually names a three-film shortlist, so these films will probably be joined either by village drama “The Strayed” (filmed in a local dialect), refugee drama “Autumn Memories”, war movie “The Raid”, or perhaps a documentary like “Dixie Land”, filmed by the same director as last year’s doc submission. I notice many people predicting Ukraine will send "A Gentle Creature", directed by Belarus-born, Ukraine-raised, Germany-based Sergei Loznitsa. However, Loznitsa seems to be a man without a country. He has gotten good notices for his bleak foreign-financed, Russian-language films in the past, but I don’t think Ukraine considers him to be a local director nor do they consider "Creature" a Ukrainian film.