EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS:

I'm in the middle of an international move so I don't think I'll be able to make a full slate of predictions....but here are my picks for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe:  

1. Albania- “Waterdrop” Albania has had a quiet year and none of their major contenders have been released. Their submission could be any one of three upcoming films....but only if one or more of them gets a domestic release before September 30...and time is running out. Two of these are directors who have picked before- Robert Budina’s “Waterdrop” and Florenc Papas’ “Luna Park”...and they're joined by Pluton Vasi’s Mother Teresa film, “Dancing with the Shadows”. On the off chance that they all premiere in time, I give the edge to “Luna Park” (which I predicted last year) co-starring local star Nik Xhelilaj who rarely makes movies in Albania anymore. It’s about a mother and son facing civil unrest in the 1990s, which is a dramatically interesting subject. But an imminent release seems unlikely so I predict corruption drama “Waterdrop” is picked. However, it’s possible none of them will premiere, whereupon they’ll have to choose between two documentaries about Albanian cinema (“Cinema is Magic” and “Bekim Fehmiu”) and migrant drama “Okarina”, about a Kosovar family in the UK, which already have screened.  

2. Armenia- “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” Armenia celebrated its first-ever Oscar shortlist spot last year for the charming “Amerikatsi”, which won Best Picture at the 2024 National Film Awards. However, it lost Best Director and Best Screenplay to “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev”, a tragicomedy-drama about 1970s Soviet Armenia. So, I see that as the frontrunner, especially in a year where there were no Armenian features in the Main Competition at their national film festival (“Yasha” appeared at a festival sidebar).  Armenia makes a lot of documentaries and has selected docs for the Oscars twice. So, it’s possible they could send “1489”, about an MIA soldier because it won the 2023 International Documentary Festival Rotterdam, or “There Was, There Was Not”, by an Armenian-American director (like “Amerikatsi”) following the lives of four women in Nagorno-Karabakh before and after the 2023 war. If they premiere in time, upcoming dramas “Light Drops” (about the Communist era) or “Revival” (co-starring Armand Assante and Maia Morgenstern) could contend as well.

3. Azerbaijan- “Maryam” Azerbaijan has a fairly small film industry and they’ve sent nine films since entering the Oscar race for the first time in 2007 (53% of the time). Despite a number of Azerbaijani films at film festivals, their last submission was a 50-minute documentary about architecture that looked like a film you’d see playing on a loop at a museum, rather than in a cinema. Last year, they didn’t enter at all. This year, I’m predicting they send “Maryam”. Director Elchin Musaoglu was submitted in 2014 for “Nabat”, which is probably the closest Azerbaijan has ever come to making the Oscar shortlist. The film also has a U.S. connection since it follows an Azerbaijan woman who leaves her comfortable life in the USA to take care of her ailing father in her small, home village. They also have “Sermon to the Birds”, but prolific young director Hilal Baydarov has never been chosen before and “Sermon” has been less successful with critics than his other films.

4. Belarus- “Under the Grey Sky” Belarus returned to the Oscar competition from 2018-2020 but hasn’t sent any films since their allies in Russia began boycotting the Oscars in 2022 over the invasion of Ukraine Harmless filmmaking comedy “Kinoshniki” was the only local feature at the national Listapad Film Festival.  I’m sure they won’t send anything. If they somehow manage to form a selection committee in exile (Syria was allowed to do this once), then Polish co-production “Under the Grey Sky” and documentary “Motherland”, both of which have Belarusian directors, would be great choices.

5. Bosnia-Herzegovina- “My Late Summer” Danis Tanovic won the Oscar for “No Man’s Land” and Bosnia has sent three (out of four) of his subsequent Bosnian films to the Oscars (In 2021, I was shocked when they selected competent but unmemorable drama “White Fortress” instead of Tanovic’s “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”). So, with “My Late Summer” selected as the Opening Film at the 2024 Sarajevo Film Festival, that has automatically made Tanovic the frontrunner. “My Late Summer” is a dramedy about a woman visiting her extended family on a remote island, in order to help settle a family inheritance battle. Unlikely: Croatian co-production “Bosnian Pot”, premiered at last year’s Sarajevo Film Festival and I think it’s eligible this year….but the director is Croatian and it will be hard to beat Tanovic.

6. Bulgaria- “Windless” I think Bulgaria will be choosing between two grim dramas, both of which highlight how so many Bulgarians see their future abroad- “Windless” (Karlovy Vary) is about a migrant returning home to his economically depressed village; “Dyad”, which tied the brilliant “Blaga’s Lessons” for Best Bulgarian Film at last year’s Golden Rose Film Festival, is about a 16-year old girl trying to find a way to join her estranged mother in the USA. “Windless” is brand-new but its director was unexpectedly snubbed recently (for “German Lessons”) and it seems to have better reviews so that’s my pick. Three other options: “The Shameless” (Cannes), a lesbian drama made in India by a Bulgarian director, “Plague” set during the medieval Black Plague and made by a previously submitted director, and “Trap”, about a village plagued by a killer boar and nuclear waste. Out of the running: “Triumph”, starring Maria Bakalova, will premiere at the Toronto Film Festival but I don't expect it to get a cinematic release until next year; “The Black Sea”, about a black New Yorker stranded in Bulgarian, looks like it has too much English. Bulgaria won’t want to be disqualified again like in 2022.

7. Croatia-“Frka” For the past 25 years, every Croatian Oscar submission has been featured at the country’s national Pula Film Festival, although they don’t necessarily pick one of the big winners (In 2020, for the first time ever, they picked a movie that hadn’t won any awards at all). This year, there were eleven Croatian features at Pula. There were also three films from last year that got released in this Oscar eligibility year....that makes a total of 14 films. The big winner this year at Pula was “Celebration”, an abstract village drama set over two decades of Croatian history from 1926-1945. It won most of the main awards, including Best Picture, Critics Poll, Actor and Screenplay, but finished dead last among audience scores. Also winning major awards this year were period romance “The Holy Family” (Audience Award) and documentary “Our Children” (Best Director). I imagine they’ll also consider political thriller “Wrath of God”, comedy-thriller “Frka” (which almost won the Audience Award...though it finished last with critics), and relationship/domestic violence drama “Only When I Laugh” (Best Actress, Pula 2023). A very dark horse: “Bigger than Trauma” won Best Picture at Pula 2023...but was seemingly never released in cinemas. My prediction: the Croatian Academy usually chooses something with a dark sense of humor so I’m predicting a surprise win for gonzo thriller “Frka” which is likely to appeal to Western audiences more than the various films about Croatian culture and history. “Celebration” did so well at Pula and is so clearly the favorite that I have them in a very, very close second place, followed by “Holy Family”, “Wrath of God” and “Only When I Laugh”. 

8. Czech Republic- “Waves” Once a favorite with Oscar, the Czech Republic hasn’t been nominated in 20 years. During that time, they did manage to make the shortlist twice…but they were for films that weren’t actually well-liked by anyone (“Painted Bird” and “Charlatan”). For the past five years, the Czechs have selected historical dramas highlighting various eras in Czech history; four of these were biopics. In my opinion, only “Il Boemo” was actually a dramatically interesting film. So, considering their record, the obvious choice for Czech Republic would be “Waves”, another historical drama, this time focused on Czechoslovakian journalists during the Soviet invasion following the 1968 Prague Spring. Reviews have been good and it won the Audience Award at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival, the country’s major film festival. But I miss the eccentric, naughty sense of humor the Czechs used to bring to this category, so I’m secretly hoping for dark horse “She Came at Night”, a subtle horror-comedy about a visiting mother-in-law. It just won Best Director at the Czech Lions, over last year’s submission “Brothers”. But I know this is highly unlikely and I currently have the film ranked a distant fourth in the Czech race. The more likely alternates are family reunion drama “Our Lovely Pig Slaughter” (which won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary) and Oscar nominee Jan Hřebejk’s new “fake news” comedy, “State of Emergency”.  Rounding out the Top Five: Alzheimer’s family dramedy “Waltzing Matilda”. “I’m Not Everything I Want To Be”, a B&W documentary about the Prague Spring, was the only Czech film at a major festival this year but the Czechs have never picked a doc, and it doesn’t look particularly interesting.

9. Estonia- “Lioness” In a quiet year, I’m fully expecting that Estonia will go with last-minute release “Lioness”, a thriller about a brilliant doctor who is also an absent mother, and her relationship with her delinquent 15-year old daughter. It’s set to premiere in late September, it’s made by a previously submitted director and Estonia doesn’t have a whole lot of other choices. If for some reason that movie doesn’t turn out to be very good (and it looks very good), then this will probably go to period romance “Life and Love”. Two movies that had high expectations last year- wacky kung fu comedy “Invisible Fight” (Locarno 2023) and abstract drama “8 Views of Lake Biwa” (Rotterdam)- probably won’t be selected…but they do have their fans. Rounding out the Top 6 are two documentaries: “Vertical Money”, a about capitalism and nature, and “Who Am I Smiling For?”, about a mother with cancer.  

10. Georgia- “April” “Panopticon”, a disturbing coming-of-age drama about a creepy, sexually deviant youth living with his ultra-religious family, looked to be the automatic frontrunner for Georgia. It got good reviews at Karlovy Vary, and there were no other obvious choices, other than “Lotto” (aka “Drawing Lots”) which was the surprise winner of Best Georgian Film at the 2023 Tbilisi Film Festival. But then Dea Kulumbegashvili’s upcoming abortion drama “April” was selected as the only Eastern European film in the Main Competition of Venice 2024. Kulumbegashvili got great reviews for “Beginning” (which I didn’t like) and Georgia submitted it to the Oscars in 2020. Venice outranks Karlovy Vary and I think if “April” (aka “Those Who Find Me”) gets good reviews, it’s in. Two other dark horses are in post-production with no release date: Aleksandre Koberidze’s “Dry Leaf” and Ana Urushadze’s acting drama “Supporting Role”. Urushadze was selected once before and Koberidze was the hot favorite for “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?”. I expect those two will be eligible next year. 

11. Hungary- “Semmelweis” Last year, I predicted Hungary would pick “Semmelweis”, a 19^th century historical drama about a doctor trying to find a cure for a fever plaguing Viennese babies. The film was directed by Lajos Koltai who probably came close to an Oscar nomination in 2006 for “Fateless”. The release date for "Semmelweis" was delayed slightly and since that time it has swept the 2024 Hungarian Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director and four other awards. So, I think it’s safe. Other options (in order)- #2- “Without Air” sounds a bit like “Teachers Lounge” and is about a teacher whose life is turned upside-down by a parent’s ridiculous complaint, #3- “Pelikan Blue”, an animated documentary about Hungary in the 1990s that has gotten quite strong reviews…but Hungary picked an animated film last year….#4- “Raw Material”, about a village disrupted by a film team, and #5- “Kix”, a well-reviewed skateboarding documentary. Unknown quantity: “Lesson Learned”, which is due to premiere in competition at Locarno. I think “Semmelweis” is way ahead, but I would love to see “Without Air” picked instead.

12. Kosovo- “Phantom Youth” Kosovo made the unusual decision not to send a film last year despite receiving four submissions, including Tallinn Black Nights First Feature winner “The Land Within”. This was especially surprising because Kosovo is usually obsessed with proving its nationhood, since Serbia has continued to prevent full international recognition of Kosovo's independence since 2008. I believe Kosovo will return this year with “Phantom Youth” (Venice Horizons 2023), a well-reviewed coming-of-age drama about two Kosovar women who leave their small town to study in the capital. It's directed by 23-year old French-Kosovar actress Luana Bajrami.

13. Latvia- “Maria’s Silence” While last year was pretty dreadful for Latvia (“My Freedom” was one of the weakest entries of last year….and couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination at Latvia’s small National Film Awards) this year looks to be competitive. For now, this looks like a two-way race between “A Postcard from Rome”, which won Best Picture at the Latvian Film Awards, and Berlinale Forum prize winner “Maria’s Silence”. I would much prefer they chose “Postcard”, a gentle comedy-drama about an elderly couple trying to pay for a trip to Italy before the husband’s Alzheimers gets worse. But for the past decade, the Latvian Academy has shown that they like their films grim and dramatic and focused on serious subjects like war and Communism. So, “Maria’s Silence”, about an actress faced with a moral dilemma during Communist times, appears to be the frontrunner. Latvia also had an acclaimed animated film (“Flow”) at Cannes Un Certain Regard…Two documentaries – “Eastern Front” (about the war in Ukraine) and “Everything Will Be Alright” (about a 90-year old female war veteran)- could also surprise, although Latvia doesn’t like docs as much as its two Baltic neighbors. But not so fast….two big long-delayed films by Latvia’s leading directors could potentially see the light of day this year- rock band drama “Jumprava- The Happening” and Latvian independence drama “In the Land That Sings” were meant to premiere last year but now have no release date on the books. For now, “Maria” is still the frontrunner but “In the Land That Sings” is sure to be selected the year that it’s finally released.

14. Lithuania- “Five and a Half Love Stories in An Apartment in Vilnius, Lithuania” Vying for the year’s most awkward title, “Love Stories” (Tallinn Black Nights) follows five love stories in an AirBnB in the Lithuanian capital, deftly mixing a variety of genres and languages. It was nominated for almost every award at this year’s Lithuanian Film Awards though it lost most to last year’s submission, “Slow”. Lithuania frequently sends documentaries so “Bogdanas Longs to Stay” (about a juvenile detention center) and “The Mammoth Hunt” (about a lost Soviet film showing Lithuanian cultural opposition to Communist rule) could also be selected. It was also recently announced that Lithuania has two new films in the Main Competition at Locarno 2024 (there are only 17 films, so that’s quite an impressive feat)- “Drowning Dry”, about a family vacation that goes tragically wrong, and “Toxic”, about the dangers of modeling. “Drowning Dry” looks like it has a lot of potential if they can get it into cinemas by September 30.

15. Macedonia- “The Business of Pleasure” Macedonia has one of the more confusing races in the region, mostly because I can’t find release dates for most of their contenders. For now, I’m penciling in human trafficking drama “Business of Pleasure” which has gotten mixed reviews but also an international distribution deal and “The Love Room”, a documentary about two women who visit their imprisoned partners in jail for conjugal visits. Both of them premiered at festivals in mid-2023….so their eligibility will depend on whether they got a domestic release in Macedonia after November 1^st, 2023.  If they’re not eligible, Macedonia may choose a last-minute release (possibly from the Manaki Brothers Film Festival in late September). Dark horses: Teona Strugar Mitevska’s terminal illness documentary “21 Days Until the End of the World” and action-comedy “Kill the Children First”. Or they may skip the competition for lack of suitable contenders, like in 2017.

16. Moldova- “Man Without A Lifeline” Moldova had a wide-open race last year with four films to choose from, which bodes well for them staying in the competition permanently. This year looks much the same, with a few well-regarded films that would represent the national cinema of this small, former Soviet republic well…even if they don’t really have a chance to get an actual Oscar nomination. If they want to emulate Ukraine’s Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol”, they could select documentary “Shadow of War”, about a group of Moldovan filmmakers who travel to neighboring Ukraine to document the war. If they believe in the importance of film festivals, they’ll pick supernatural Antichrist drama “The Alienated”, which had its premiere at Karlovy Vary. “Man Without A Lifeline” won some minor awards in the USA for its story of a scientist imprisoned during the Communist era.  Also in the mix: Paralympic drama “Kretsul” and comedy-drama “Alive in Mo.” Interestingly, four out of five are directed or co-directed by women. I think the fact that “Alienated” and “Kretsul” are directed by Russians - not a good look - will hurt their chances, opening the door for “Man Without A Lifeline” to be selected. I expect the Karlovy Vary label will propel “The Alienated” into second place with “Shadows” in third.

17. Montenegro- “Forever Hold Your Peace” Tiny Montenegro has sent a film to the Oscars all but one year since their Oscar debut in 2013 (they received no submissions in 2017). This year, they’re almost certain to send messy Balkan wedding comedy “Forever Hold Your Peace”, which would make Ivan Marinovic the first Montenegrin director to be selected twice. However, it’s not a sure thing because oft-delayed “The Tower of Strength” (aka “Face of Honour” and “Children”) may finally come out this year. It’s a baity period drama set during WWII about a Christian child who begs a Muslim neighbor to save his life after his family is murdered, putting that entire family’s lives at risk and posing them with a grave moral dilemma. Less likely: comedy-drama “The Supermarket” and documentary “Once Upon A Family”.

18. Poland- “Under the Volcano” Poland is probably the most difficult country to predict because they have a huge film industry, but at least half of their contenders will premiere in September at the Gdynia National Film Festival. In alphabetical order, I see the four main contenders for Poland are: “Minghun”, a movie about grief in which a Polish father and his Chinese father-in-law mourn the loss of his daughter, “People”, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the eyes of a group of brave Ukrainian women, “Scarborn”, an 18^th century action epic about fighting the Russians which won Best Picture at the 2023 Gdynia Film Festival (over “The Peasants”) and “Under the Volcano”, about a Ukrainian family on vacation who are unable to return home when war breaks out. Poland has a good record in this category (3 nominations in six years….and it probably would have been four if they picked “Green Border” last year) so they definitely want to be nominated. As of today, only “Scarborn” has been screened for critics so it’s impossible to know. Both films about Ukraine have Polish directors so they’re eligible. I’ve heard seen mixed reviews for the buzzy “Minghun” on Letterboxd which makes me think that they may choose one of the others. For now, I’m pencilling in “Under the Volcano” but I’m not confident….with “Scarborn” in second place. I see a lot of people predicting Cannes Palme d’or nominee “Girl with the Needle” and transgender drama “Woman of…” but I don’t think they’re eligible. “Girl” is almost entirely Danish (with a few Polish crew) while “Woman of…” was shortlisted by Poland last year even though its eventual release date was this year. So I think they’re both out.

19. Romania- “Three Kilometres to the End of the World” For such an important country, Romania really only has two realistic choices….so it’s looking like a fierce competition of Berlin vs. Cannes. This is going to be a really difficult choice between two dramas about discrimination and prejudice- “Holy Week” takes place in 1900 Romania and focuses on anti-Semitism and revenge at a village inn; “Three Kilometers to the End of the World”, which was in the Main Competition at Cannes, is an LGBT drama about a young man whose conservative family learns he is gay after he is the victim of a brutal hate crime. Both got good reviews and were made by relatively new directors. I’m predicting “Three Kilometres” but this is really 50-50, especially since both were just selected for the 9-film Sarajevo Competition lineup….The Romanian Academy has picked daring movies before (remember the opening scene of “Bad Luck Banging”?) so I don’t expect they’ll be turned off by the gay themes. If they go for a shock surprise nominee (which happened two years ago), they could consider “Familiar” (by Golden Bear winner Calin Peter Netzer, who directed “Child’s Pose”), “Warboy”, a WWII youth drama, or documentary “Between Revolutions”. But I’m pretty sure it will be one of the two frontrunners. 

20. Russia- “The Alien” Once again, I have no expectations that Russia will send a film. After they invaded Ukraine in 2022, killing or wounding half a million people and destabilizing Europe, they disbanded their Oscars committee claiming the West was disrespecting them (?!). But I am proud that the placeholder film I picked for Russia last year (“Pravednik”) went on to win Best Picture at the 2024 Russian Nika Awards, making me feel good about my predictive abilities. Russian cinema has mostly been uninvited from international film festivals and they’ve been churning out a lot of light entertainment this year. If they send a film (which they won’t) I expect it would be the apolitical “The Alien”, which was the only Russian film in competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. It’s a well-reviewed drama about an eccentric village man obsessed with alien life. They also likely would have considered WWII village drama “Black Tapes” about village men who convince the local postmen to stop sending notices that relatives have died in the war, India co-production “We Should Make Movies About Love”, or “Anna’s Feelings”, another sci-fi alien drama, this time by previously submitted director Anna Melikyan. It would be interesting if AMPAS approved a committee-in-exile that could consider Aleksandr Sokurov’s latest film - the surreal fantasy “Fairytale” - which won Best Picture from the Russian Guild of Film Critics despite being banned…or indie drama “Dolomite and Ash”, about journalists investigating Soviet era atrocities.

21. Serbia- “The Great Tram Robbery” So, Serbia makes great movies. And the Serbian Academy makes terrible choices. In the past five years, they have selected three nationalist movies about Serbian history that probably went over the heads of many Oscar viewers, ignoring critically acclaimed dramas that were expected to contend for a nomination, like “Father” and “Guardians of the Formula”. They also tend to select directors in their 50s and 60s. (only Petar Ristovski was from the younger generation, but he’s the son of respected retired actor/director Lazar Ristovski). So, that’s why I’m picking 1920’s expensive epic historical film “The Great Tram Robbery” (aka “God Be With Us”) by 77-year old Slobodan Slijan, who was an important director during the Communist era. It’s the sort of big-budget, pretty-looking film the Serbian Academy loves and that American audiences don’t. In second place, I have “The Erl-King” (by 67-67-year old Goran Radovanovic) about a family under siege by the NATO bombing of Belgrade in the 1990s. It represented Serbia at the Moscow International Film Festival, and Radovanovic represented Serbia for another nationalist film (Enclave) in 2015. But it’s possible Serbia could go arthouse- they did in 2021- and that means they could select “That’s It For Today” (aka “Enough for Now”), a warmly received rural drama that won Best Serbian Film at FEST 2024 in Belgrade. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Serbia: “Russian Consul”, another nationalist historical drama about the origins of the Serbia-Kosovo conflict and dark horse “Lost Country”. Cannes 2023 drama “Lost Country” is a moral dilemma drama of the sort that the Balkan countries do so well (a young son realizes his mother is part of the genocidal Milosevic government), and it was one of the favorites to rep Serbia last year. It wasn’t selected by the film ended up changing its release date so it may be eligible this year. But it’s critical perspective of Serbian nationalism may mean the committee just doesn’t like its message. I’d love for them to consider something a bit wackier like comedy “Lilacs” or horror-drama “The Working Class to Hell” both of which were among the four Serbian films featured at FEST….but I’d say it’s unlikely. Unknown quantity: Serbia has two new films that were just announced for the 9-film competition in Sarajevo, including “Mother Mara”, directed and starring a well-known Serbian actress as a woman who meets a mysterious man while grieving the loss of her son. The other, migrant drama “Dwelling Among the Gods”, is the story of an Afghan woman and is unlikely to rep Serbia.

22. Slovakia- “The Hungarian Dressmaker” Slovakia appears to have a fairly easy decision this year. Iveta Grofova’s “Hungarian Dressmaker” was the only majority Slovak production at Karlovy Vary (the premier festival for both Czech and Slovak films) and Grofova was selected once before in 2012. The film is about an ethnic Hungarian woman hiding a Jewish boy from the Nazis during WWII…which recalls Slovakia’s long-ago Oscar win for “The Shop on Main Street”. Slovakia hasn’t selected a film helmed by a woman in over a decade so this would be a victory for equality as well. Slovakia has made some surprising decisions in the past so upcoming crime drama “Miki” could contend if it gets really great reviews after its August release. Slovakia likes documentaries (they picked docudramas two of the past three years) so “Andy Warhol: The American Dream” could also be the one (Warhol was of Slovak descent). Period dramas “Whirlwind”  and “The Dormant Account” are by previously submitted directors but don’t have reviews good enough to defeat the “Dressmaker”.

23. Slovenia- “Family Therapy” Slovenia usually sends an intimate drama to the Oscars and this year I expect that will be “Family Therapy” (Tribeca, Sarajevo), a social satire about a wealthy Slovenian family. This would be the third go-round for Sonja Prosenc (after "The Tree" and "History of Love") and this is supposed to be her best film yet. In second place, I have the upcoming “The Lost Son” about two brothers- one a good cop, and the other a criminal. Round out the Top 5: “Wake Me”, about an amnesiac visiting his brother (it won Best Fiction Feature at the 2023 Slovenian Vesna Awards); “Role Model”, a family drama about a lonely teen, his alcoholic mother and a mysterious neighbor; and “Body” a dull-looking documentary filmed over the course of 20 years, about a women fighting an autoimmune illness. Dark horses include Janez Burger’s new thriller “Observing” (he’s been selected three times), coming-of-age drama “Fantasy” and docudrama “Pero”.  

24. Ukraine- “Porcelain War” Wow….Ukraine won its first Oscar last year (“20 Days in Mariupol” won Best Documentary and was deservingly shortlisted in this category as well). Despite the war, cinemas remain open and the country Kyiv hosted Ukraine’s International Film Festival (usually in Odessa) in July 2024. It’s an incredibly competitive year for Ukraine with nearly two dozen documentaries and fiction features in play, and no frontrunner. I’ve no idea which one they’ll pick. However, since Ukraine’s top foreign policy priority is to drum up international support for the war efforts, I think they’ll pick another documentary….and their best option seems to be Sundance Documentary winner “Porcelain War”, about three artists who continue to document daily Ukrainian life after Russia’s invasion. It’s topical, well-reviewed and proved to resonate with U.S. audiences. If they want a fiction feature, it will probably be “Grey Bees” about two middle-aged neighbors trying to stay alive in the Donbass, on the war’s frontlines. It just won Best Ukrainian Film at the national film festival. The documentary runner-ups (in order): “Intercepted” (Berlinale 2024), “The Invasion” (Cannes 2024), which hasn’t gotten the best reviews but is directed by acclaimed director Sergei Loznitsa, and “In the Rearview”, which would be a frontrunner if the director wasn’t Polish. The fiction runner-ups: family drama “Stepne” (Locarno 2023), LGBT comedy “Lessons of Tolerance” (which Western critics don’t seem to like), “The Editorial Office” (Sarajevo), and “How is Katia?”. Slava Ukraini!

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR EASTERN EUROPE (24 countries)

So it’s that time of year again. Over the next three months, over 90 countries from around the world will be selecting their favorite films. This year’s qualification dates are December 1-October 31…and it appears that AMPAS has gotten rid of the pandemic-era rule that films can qualify with a release in another country. This is sad for countries that have very problems with censorship or countries with few cinemas. There is also a new rule requiring selection committees to contain more filmmakers and less government officials…but this isn’t going to make countries like China or Iran select dissident films.  

Last year I saw 71 of the 93 submissions…..Most were good, few were outstanding or terrible. None of my six favorite films (Armenia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine) got nominated….as usual. I’m working on a post about last year’s films while also trying to find one or two more to watch. 

But for now, here are my predictions for the 24 countries from Eastern Europe. 

1. ALBANIA- “Luna Park”  Florenc Papas was selected three years ago for “Open Door”, and he’ll probably represent Albania again with “Luna Park”, co-starring Nik Xhelilaj, one of Albania’s biggest stars, who has returned home after spending most of the last ten years making films in Germany and Turkey. “Luna Park” is about a mother and son caught in an outbreak of Albanian civil unrest during the 1990s.

2. ARMENIA- “Light Drops” Armenia deserved an Oscar nomination (and possible win?) last year for beautiful animated documentary “Aurora’s Sunrise”. This year, I predict they send “Light Drops”, a period drama about how the country suffered during the difficult days after the collapse of the USSR. However, Armenia often sends documentaries…so they could send “5 Dreamers and a Horse”, about the dreams and aspirations of diverse a diverse group of Armenians, or perhaps “Tonratun”, about a family of women discussing current events while making bread together as a family. It was the only Armenian feature at the Golden Apricot Film Festival this year. Another documentary- “Landshaft”- has seen more festival play but is handicapped by a German director, while U.S. co-production “Amerikatsi” was released too early.

3. AZERBAIJAN- “Cold as Marble” Azerbaijan has several options this year, but release dates are confusing and local films often have major difficulties getting into local cinemas dominated by Turkish, Russian and Hollywood fare. I planned to predict “Maryam” because it was directed by Elchin Musaoglu who also made “Nabat”, probably Azerbaijan’s highest-profile Oscar submission to date. The Azerbaijani Academy can be cliquey and Musaoglu is a respected filmmaker who has been picked before. But “Maryam”, about a woman who returns from the U.S. to take care of her ailing father, hasn’t premiered yet. Azerbaijan also has two festival entries- “Sermon to the Fish” (Locarno/Busan) by prolific young arthouse director Hilal Baydarov, and tragicomic “Cold as Marble” (Tallinn Black Nights), about a man whose father returns home unexpectedly from prison. I personally would recommend they send the well-reviewed “Marble” so that’s my prediction for now. There’s also custody drama “Banu”, which could be Azerbaijan’s first submission directed by a woman. 

4. BELARUS- “Summer of ‘89” Belarus sent two films to the Oscars in the mid 90s, and then three more from 2018-2020 when the country was slowly opening up to Europe….But that all ended when Belarus rigged elections in 2020 and supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Belarus will presumably join the Russian boycott, but if the local opposition can form a selection committee, we could see Soviet-era coming-of-age drama “Summer of ‘89”, which did get screened in Belarus in late 2022 (though it didn’t get a regular cinematic release) or docu-drama “A Date in Minsk”, which has a young couple playing fictionalized versions of themselves. 

5. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Excursion” The Sarajevo Film Festival competition lineup was just announced and “Excursion” (which also got a sidebar berth in Locarno) was the only local Bosnian feature on the list…It’s about how a student’s lie during "Truth or Dare" ends up wreaking havoc in her small community (sounds like “The Hunt”?) As of July 25, the local “BH Film” programme hasn’t been posted. Bosnia also has two other options by talented, previously submitted directors. From Pjer Zalica, we have “May Labor Day”, an old-fashioned drama (Cineuropa calls it “anachronistic”) about a man who returns home from abroad to find his father has disappeared; rumor has it he’s been arrested for war crimes. Ahmed Imamovic (who directed my favorite Bosnian film, “Go West”) has “Die Before Death”, a mystery-thriller about an abortion doctor. “Excursion” should get this, with “Die Before Death” in second place.

6. BULGARIA- “Blaga’s Lessons” Poor Bulgaria…”In the Heart of the Machine” richly deserved an Oscar nod last year but somehow missed out. This year should be an easy choice. “Blaga’s Lessons” won the Grand Prize at Karlovy Vary and director Stepan Komandarev got Bulgaria’s only shortlist spot (in 2009). “Blaga” is a senior citizen who gets cheated out of her life savings, who quickly gives up on her morality to become a heartless scammer herself. Bulgaria hasn’t picked Komandarev’s last two movies, so it’s not a sure thing….but “Blaga” looks like one of the most exciting films of the year so I’m confident they’ll pick it if it gets a domestic release by October 31. If not, “The Good Driver” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia International Film Festival, “The Art of Falling” won at the Bulgarian Academy Awards, and “Spring Equinox” won the Jury Prize at the Golden Rose Film Festival (“Mother” won Best Film but that was released last year). The director of last year’s brilliant prison drama “In the Heart of the Machine” also has a new film- “Trust Game”, as does Milko Lazarov (previously selected for “Aga”) who has xenophobia drama “The Herd”. Also, senior director Georgi Djulgerov- who has never been selected- has period drama “Memoir of a Betrayal”.  I expect to see all seven of these films on the Bulgarian shortlist, with “Blaga” easily winning the nod, “Art of Falling” coming second, and migrant dramas (a popular subject with the Bulgarian Academy) “Good Driver” and “The Herd” in third and fourth.

7. CROATIA- “The Uncle” The Croatians have a wide-open race. 14 new films competed at the Pula Film Festival this month, which announced its winners on July 23. Documentary “Bigger Than Trauma”, about women sexually assaulted during the wars of the 1990s, won Best Croatian Film, while four other films (“Safe Place”, which went to the Oscars last year, plus drama “Traces” , animated film “Cricket & Antoinette” and comedy “Carbide”) won three awards each. Croatian films often take months (or even a year) to hit local cinemas so not all Pula award winners will be eligible. Croatia often makes unpredictable choices for the Oscars; while I’ve loved their last three choices, most critics seem to disagree with me (and with the Croatian Academy).  I’m predicting quirky uncomfortable Haneke-esque thriller “The Uncle”, which won Best Screenplay at Pula last year, and which feels very much like the same vibe as Croatia’s recent picks “Tereza37” and “Extracurricular”….AMPAS probably won’t like it. I have rape documentary (and Pula winner) “Bigger Than Trauma” in second place and “Hotel Pula”, about a forbidden romance between an older Bosnian man and an underaged Croatian teen, in 3^rd. Both of these came in Top 5 with Pula audiences (“Trauma” in 2^nd and “Hotel” in 5^th), but it was children’s animated film “Cricket & Antoinette”, about the ant & the grasshopper fairy tale, that came in #1. Croatia has a strong tradition of animation but it would be an odd choice for the Oscars, so I have “Cricket” fourth and Pula premiere “Good Times, Bad Times”, about a man at an unusual restaurant, in 5^th place. Director Nevio Marasovic has been passed over several times and lead actor Radko Polič died shortly after making the movie, so it would be a sentimental choice. Dark horse: 95-year old Veliko Bulajic has the yet-to-be-screened war drama “Escape to the Sea” but the Croatian Academy tends to like young, edgy filmmakers and I expect “Escape” may be more competitive for Montenegro (See MONTENEGRO).

8. CZECH REPUBLIC- “We Have Never Been Modern” The Czechs used to be one of the powerhouses in this category….but this year marks twenty years since their last Oscar nomination. They’ve been mostly quiet this year (or two) but they had three really intriguing options by fresh, young directors at Karlovy Vary. The most likely choice is “We Have Never Been Modern” a mystery-drama about a pregnant woman who finds a dead baby with intersex organs abandoned in her small traditional community. It’s one of only two Czech films in contention for the Crystal Globe, and that’s where the Czech Republic finds its Oscar submissions roughly half the time. But the Czech Academy has an independent streak and I could see them picking either buzzy new sci-fi flick “Restore Point”, a murder mystery about a future in which you can “reboot” a person who has just died, or “She Came at Night”, a bizarre but very well reviewed horror-comedy-drama-thriller about a mother-in-law whose visit threatens to wreck a marriage (it looks like “War of the Roses”). “Restore” already has a U.S. distribution deal and Variety says it’s primed for an English-language remake. Czech Republic has been absent from the major festivals this year so those are the three frontrunners but there are also a couple of potential dark horses: “Two Words as the Key”, about a diverse group of people hiking in the Himalayas will premiere in late July; “A Sensitive Person”, the second Czech film competing in Karlovy Vary, though it seems less accessible; “Great Nothing”, a documentary about the Czech response to COVID-19, and “Tony, Shelly and the Magic Light”, an animated family film- the Czechs are rightfully proud of their animation….Making the Czech race more confusing is the announcement this week that Agnieszka Holland’s migrant drama “The Green Border” is finished and premiering in Venice. Holland is Polish but her last film represented the Czech Republic.  I predict “Modern”, followed by “Restore Point”, “She Came at Night”, “Green Border” (unclear if it’s eligible) and “Two Words”

9.       ESTONIA- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” Estonia has had a fairly weak year, and I predict they’ll send their first ever documentary submission- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” (Sundance, Best Documentary Director) about women baring secrets in the country’s famous saunas. Ironically, neighboring Finland sent a similar film (about men in saunas) in 2010. If Estonia wants to send a fiction feature, it will probably be time-travel drama “Stairway to Heaven”. Mystery thriller “Melchior the Apothecary: The Executioner’s Daughter” is the third in a big-budget trilogy by a popular director, but they didn’t send either of the first two films….so I doubt they’ll send this one either. Three upcoming films (“8 Views of Lake Biwa”, “Dark Paradise” and “One-Dimensional Man”) could also seriously contend if they get released by the deadline, especially “One-Dimensional Man”.  

10.   GEORGIA- “Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry” Georgia has quite a competitive race with the two winners of the National Competition at the Tbilisi Film Festival (1^st Place “A Room of My Own” and runner-up “The Drummer”) competing against three films by previously submitted directors (“And the Sun Rises”, “Beautiful Helen” and “Resting Samurai”) plus the Georgian representatives at Berlin/Sarajevo (“Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry”) Karlovy Vary (“Citizen Saint”) and Rotterdam (“Drawing Lots”). On paper, “A Room of My Own” and “Beautiful Helen” look strongest….”A Room of My Own” is the highest-profile of the eight films, won Best Georgian Film in Tbilisi and has gotten very strong reviews for its story of two female roommates during COVID….but queer themes have upset some in the conservative country and I’m not certain it got a domestic release which is once again required. “Beautiful Helen” is by the director of “Corn Island” (which I hated), the last Georgian film to be shortlisted…..but reviews have not been good enough to send it. So, I’m predicting that the Berlinale label and its recent selection for Sarajevo propels “Blackbird”, about a 48-year virgin whose life is the subject of gossip in her provincial village, to the top and will represent Georgia. I have “Citizen Saint” in second, and controversial “A Room of My Own” in third place. Rounding out the Top Five: “Drawing Lots”, a B&W mystery-drama and “Resting Samurai”, a family soap opera.  

11. HUNGARY- “Semmelweis” Hungary’s selection committee has made odd choices the past two years, choosing a spooky horror flick and a patriotic movie about taxi drivers over films that had much, much stronger reviews. So far this year, Hungary only has two strong possibilities- dystopian anime “White Plastic Sky” (Berlinale Encounters), set in post-apocalyptic Hungary in the year 2123, and  “Six Weeks” (Sarajevo, Tallinn Black Nights), about a young woman struggling with her decision to put her baby up for adoption. But they have three strong upcoming films, including two by the directors of important Oscar submissions. Historical drama “Semmelweis” is a biopic/true story of a 19^th century doctor who fought official bureaucracy to help defeat an epidemic that was killing babies in 1847 Vienna. Director Lajos Koltai was hotly tipped for an Oscar nomination for Holocaust drama “Fateless”…but didn’t get it. Barnabas Toth was somehow shortlisted for glorified TV movie “Those That Remained” a few years ago (another Holocaust drama, but far inferior to “Fateless”), and he has a baity new thriller about a train escaping Communist-era Hungary in 1956, called “Master Game”. Last, “Explanation for Everything”, the story of a graduation exam that causes a national scandal told from three different perspectives, was just announced for Venice. Hungary likes to pick last-minute releases, and “Semmelweis” is scheduled for a fall release so that’s my pick. I have “Six Weeks” as runner-up, and “Explanation” in third.

12. KOSOVO- “The Land Within” Kosovo is highly likely to send Swiss co-production “The Land Within”, about a Kosovar who leaves his home to Switzerland to visit a dying relative in his home village where most men were killed during the war. It’s a slow-burn mystery that won Best First Feature at Tallinn Black Nights. Bota Jonë (Venice), directed by 22-year old French-Kosovar actress Luana Bajrami, probably won’t premiere in Kosovo in time.

13.   LATVIA- “Soviet Milk” Latvia is confusing because their two best prospects have tentative release dates in November 2023, although this year’s cut-off for the International Feature category is October 31. I’m pretty sure Maris Martinsons’ 19^th century patriotic drama “In the Land That Sings” would win this easily….but I believe it will compete next year. Ditto Aigars Grauba’s musical biopic “Jumprava”, though that might be too Latvian to resonate with international audiences. So, that leaves “Soviet Milk”, about a woman doctor who refuses to nurse her child due as a result of depression caused by Soviet rule, and “Maria’s Silence”, a historical drama. “Maria” looks stronger but it’s release date is still TBD so it’s “Soviet Milk” by default. Dark horse: Ukraine documentary “Eastern Front” (Berlinale) was listed as a Latvian production, despite its two Ukrainian co-directors.

14.   LITHUANIA- “Mariupolis 2” The favorite from Lithuania is “Slow”, a romance about a dancer and a sign language interpreter that won Best Director (Fiction) at the Sundance Film Festival. But last year I predicted Lithuania would select “Mariupolis 2”, a documentary whose director was killed by Russian bombings while filming in Ukraine. It posthumously won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and Best Lithuanian Film at the Vilnius International Film Festival. Lithuania sends documentaries about one-third of the time (more than any other country) so it’s very possible this could go forward this year. Three films that did well at the national Silver Crane Awards are also strong possibilities, namely “Remember to Blink” (Best Picture, Director), an interesting adoption drama, “Parade” (Best Screenplay, Actress), a comedy-drama about a long-divorced couple thrown together in an effort to get their divorce recognized by the Catholic church, and “The Poet” (Best Actor, Supporting Actor), a Communist-era historical drama. I hate picking the same film two years in a row, but I suspect it’s “Mariupolis 2”, with “Slow” in second place and “Parade” in third.

15. MACEDONIA- “M” It’s a confusing race in Macedonia as most of their contenders haven’t premiered yet. Three Macedonian films were at the Cannes Film market: “The Business of Pleasure”, a thriller about human trafficking, “M”, a dystopian sci-fi drama about a global pandemic (it started production before COVID), and “Things Unsaid”, about a teenager whose visit ends up destabilizes a happy marriage. But Macedonia got an Oscar nod for documentary “Honeyland”, and “The Love Room”, about two women patiently awaiting conjugal visits with their imprisoned husbands, looks very good. And just this week, “Housekeeping for Beginners”, by Australian-Macedonian director Goran Stolevski (“You Won’t Be Alone”), got a Venice Horizons berth. Lastly, there’s horror-drama “Piargy” by Ivo Trajkov, who has represented Macedonia three times. It was made in Slovakia (and shortlisted but not selected by Slovakia last year) but could be eligible for Macedonia this year. I think this will be an extremely tight race between “M”, and “Love Room”, with “Housekeeping for Beginners” not far behind.

16. MOLDOVA- “Varvara” Last year, Moldova returned to the Oscars after an eight-year absence with black comedy “Carbon”. The same production company has a new film- “Varvara”- out in 2023, about an honest (and agnostic) man with a moral dilemma- he is offered generous bribes and kickbacks to do a project that would destroy a priceless religious icon. It’s another dark comedy and one of the films I most want to see from the region this year.

17.   MONTENEGRO- “Children” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 600,000) joined the Oscars in 2013. Despite their tiny film industry, they’ve only missed one year since….This year, I predict they’ll send “Children” (aka “Face of Honour”), a really intriguing moral dilemma drama about a boy that seeks refuge with a family, who are then threatened with death and ruin if they don’t turn him in to the mob. But don’t count out “Escape to the Sea”, by Yugoslavian director Veljko Bulajic, about the sole German survivor of a WWII battle, wandering the Yugoslav countryside. Why do I call Bulajic Yugoslavian? Well, Bulajic represented Yugoslavia SEVEN TIMES between 1959 and 1983 (and independent Croatia once), netting an Oscar nod for “The Battle of Neretva” over 50 years ago in 1970. Yes, he’s 95 years old and has links to both Croatia and Montenegro, though the film itself is a majority Croatian production. Neither film has been screened yet and it’s possible Croatia may claim “Escape”.

18. POLAND- “Green Border” Recently, Poland has the best record in Eastern Europe, with four nominations (including one win) in the past ten years; all were decent films but I probably wouldn’t have nominated any of them. But 2023 has been a pretty quiet year for them. First of all, I assume Cannes Grand Prix winner “Zone of Interest” (in German with a UK director) will contend for the United Kingdom. So, I predict Poland will choose either “Filip”, a WWII drama about a Polish Jew who successfully hides his origins while watching friends and family killed or sent to camps, or Agnieszka Holland’s new migrant drama “Green Border”, which was just selected for the Venice Film Festival….but which could easily compete for the Czech Republic instead. I’m going with Oscar nominee Holland but I’m not confident. “Filip” won 2^nd Prize at the Polish Film Festival last year (the winner- “Silent Twins”, starring Black Panther vaccine denier Letitia Wright, was 100% in English) and has gotten strong reviews though it would be a fairly “small” choice for Poland.  Poland could potentially pick some late-arriving film that I’ve never heard of, perhaps from the Polish Film Festival in September. My picks for the rest of Poland’s Top 6: innovative animated film “The Peasants” set in the early 20^th century, “Bread & Salt”, about a small town dealing with violence against migrants, “Scarborn”, an 18^th century costume drama about Poles fighting the Russians, and “The Magic Number”, a difficult intellectual drama about a mathematician, directed by 84-year old Krzysztof Zanussi, who has repped Poland four times (and Poland sometimes picks films by “senior” directors). A Poland film watcher assured me this will go to innovative animé “The Peasants”. 

19.   ROMANIA- “Do Not Expect Much From the End of the World” Romania seemed to have a two-way race between two upcoming dark comedies by acclaimed national directors- “MMXX” by Cristi Puiu, and “Do Not Expect Much From the End of the World” by Radu Jude, which has just been announced to debut in Locarno. Puiu has been picked twice (“Death of Mr. Lazarescu”, “Sieranevada”) and Jude has been picked three times (“Aferim!”, “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”, “I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians”). But “MMXX” just announced a November release date in Romania making it eligible next year….so Jude should get this easily. “Do Not Expect Much” is an absurdist black comedy about a production assistant seeking to hire an actor for a workplace safety video. She ends up hiring a paralyzed man who was actually injured by her own company. But let’s be careful….Last year was also considered a two-way race (“RMN” vs. “Metronome”) and Romania chose an obscure, unheralded drama (“Immaculate”) instead….so we could see a surprise from “Day of the Tiger” (Sarajevo), about a female veterinarian confronting sexism, “Freedom” (Sarajevo/Venice), set during the violent 1989 Romanian Revolution, or “Familiar”, a new drama about uncovering family secrets, directed by Calin Peter Netzer, winner of the 2013 Berlin Film Festival. I’ve heard people mention “To the North” (Venice) and “Men of Deeds” (Best Picture, National Film Awards) but “North” seems to be mostly in English and “Deeds” opened a week before the qualifying date. I’m sticking with “Do Not Expect Much”, but “Freedom” could easily surprise if it wins awards at Venice or Sarajevo.

20. RUSSIA- “Pravednik” First of all, NO, I don’t think Russia will submit a film. Russia boycotted last year in protest of….um….their own government invading a peaceful neighboring country?! There was actually quite a controversy. The President of the Russian Selection Committee, Oscar nominee Pavel Chukhrai, confirmed that Russia would participate in spite of the war, but then the Russian Film Academy overruled him and said Russia would boycott the awards. Chukhrai resigned in protest. On the off chance that Russia chooses to participate, they’re going to have to choose a film that it would be difficult to criticize….So, for the sake of completion, I’m putting down “Pravednik”, a WWII movie about Jewish Soviet forces rescuing hundreds of civilians under Nazi attack. “Nina”, a co-production with Western-oriented Georgia, represented Russia in Shanghai and tells an apolitical story of a happily married woman who goes to visit her ex-lover on his deathbed. Nazi trial drama “Nuremberg”, ethnic Buryat drama “Dukh Baykala”, ethnic Yakut drama “Don’t Bury Me Without Ivan”, and Moscow Film Festival entry “The Edge of the Broken Moon” could also contend in the unlikely event Russia chose to enter.

21.   SERBIA- “Lost Country” Serbia used to send a lot of intriguing, jet-black comedies about Serbian daily life, but recently they’ve leaned heavily on historical films about past glories, or films focusing on grievances against Serbs (or both). These aren’t bad films, but American audiences aren’t so interested in learning about Serbia’s role in World War I. So, while I’m hoping they send comedy-drama “The Beheading of John the Baptist”, about family secrets revealed at a dinner party, I worry it may be jingoistic “Oluja” (The Storm) about the ill treatment suffered by Croatian Serbs during the ethnic wars of the 1990s. But my prediction- “Lost Country”- combines a little of both. It got great reviews at Cannes Critics Week for its story of a boy who slowly realizes his beloved mother is a part of Milosevic’s murderous regime and was recently selected for Sarajevo. Serbia has a number of other good options including low-budget indie darling “Where the Road Leads”, Cold War thriller “Guardians of the Formula” (Locarno/Sarajevo), and prisoner redemption drama “Indigo Kristal”. I think that “Mouth Full of Earth” (which won Best Serbian Film at the FEST Film Festival) and “Have You Seen This Woman?” (Venice Critics Week) are too weird to be serious contenders. The wild card is “Heroes of Halyard”, about Serbian forces helping a group of stranded American POWs during World War II; this would be a perfect combination of what Serbia likes (historical dramas showcasing Serbia) while also making it relatable to Hollywood. But the film has not release date and may have too much English anyway so I’m excluding it… But if eligible, it could seriously challenge “Lost Country”. For now, I predict “Lost Country”, with “Guardians of the Formula” in second, “John the Baptist” optimistically in third, followed by “Indigo”, and “Oluja” (sigh).

22.   SLOVAKIA- “Plastic Symphony” Slovak film production is back up after COVID, and no less than three previously submitted directors (Martin Sulik, who has been selected seven times, plus Juraj Lehotsky, and Mira Fornay) have new films. Add a sumptuous lesbian costume drama and an acclaimed documentary in Spanish, and the Slovaks have an evenly-matched five-way race. Alphabetically, we have “The Cathedral”, a documentary about a Spanish madman (visionary?) who spends 60 years building a cathedral from scratch, “The Chambermaid” (Tallinn Black Nights), the lesbian costume drama, “The Horse”, a comedy about a man who randomly finds a horse living in his second-floor apartment, “Plastic Symphony”, about a celebrated musician who reappears after five years secluded away from the public scene, and “She-Hero”, about a little girl looking for her lost bird, which won the Youth competition at Berlinale 2023. All of them have a chance. The Slovak Academy loves Sulik and documentaries, while “Chambermaid” has the best production values, “She-Hero” the awards, and “Plastic Symphony” the tone and subject matter to be selected. I’m predicting “Plastic Symphony”, followed by “She-Hero” and “The Cathedral”….but it’s gonna be close.

23.   SLOVENIA- “Riders” Low-budget road movie “Riders” premiered at Sarajevo last year and has flown under the radar, getting excellent reviews (Screen Daily called it “quietly excellent”) at various festivals and winning three awards at the Slovenian Film Awards late last year (it lost Best Picture to “Orchestra”, Slovenia’s Oscar submission last year). Its main competition comes from two co-productions that I believe are both eligible- “Moja Vesna” (Berlin 2022), a Slovenian immigrant family drama set in Australia, and “The Man Without Guilt”, set in the Italian-speaking Slovenia/Italy border area. Rounding out the Top Five options for Slovenia: “Wake Me”, the redemption tale of a far-right nationalist, and “Lunatic”, following 40 years in the life of a sailing family. 

24. UKRAINE- “Pamfir” Слава Україні! Slava Ukraïni! Ukraine’s film industry has defiantly continued to crank out an amazing quantity of fiction features and documentaries despite the Russian invasion. Cinemas somehow remain open. Critically acclaimed “Pamfir”, about a family man who resorts to crime to support his family, was considered a strong contender last year but it didn’t premiere in Ukrainian cinemas until 2023. It’s my pick for Ukraine but it’s by no means a sure thing as it faces stiff competition from “Luxembourg, Luxembourg” a road comedy about two Ukrainian twins who learn the father that abandoned them is dying in Luxembourg. Both films are nominated in the Big Three categories (Picture, Director and Screenplay) at the upcoming Ukrainian Oscars (against “Klondike”) which will be given out in August 2023.  “Butterfly Vision”, about a POW victim of sexual assault, got nominated in Picture and Screenplay but not Director, showing that it is well-liked but slightly behind the other two films. But the war has meant that some of the best films made in Ukraine are documentaries like “20 Days in Mariupol” (Sundance Audience Award; journalists reporting from the bombed city of Mariupol), “Iron Butterflies” (Sundance; the shooting down of MH17) and “We Will Not Fade Away” (Berlin; small town teenagers living through the current war). Unknown quantity: “Stepne”, the feature debut of a Cannes Palme d’Or Short Film winner, has just been announced for Locarno and “La Palisiada” has just been announced for Sarajevo. I predict “Pamfir”, followed by “Luxembourg” and “20 Days”. Best of luck Ukraine!