And here are my predictions from the 23 countries from Asia. 19 of these countries submitted films last year. Bhutan (1999), Mongolia (2005), Sri Lanka (2009) and Tajikistan (2005) haven't sent films in years.
1. AFGHANISTAN- “Wolf and
Sheep” Afghanistan is one of those countries that keeps sending great movies year after year without luck. “Parting” was one of the best films submitted last year
(albeit a weak year) but AMPAS mysteriously disqualified it without announcing
a reason. Was it because of nationality (the film was an Iranian co-production)
or was it not properly released in Afghanistan? Who can say? The year before,
“Utopia” was disqualified for having too much English. This year, I predict
they will send either “Lina”, a movie about a young woman who goes in search of
her biological father after learning from a blood test that her parents are
not her real parents, or “Wolf and Sheep”, about life in a pastoral village in
central Afghanistan. I give the edge to “Wolf and Sheep” whose 27-year old female director won Director’s Fortnight at Cannes in 2016, and who made the film in Afghanistan with an international crew. Siddiq Barmak (the Golden Globe-winning director of
“Osama”) is currently in production on a new movie called “The Pass” in Georgia.
2. BANGLADESH- “Rina Brown”- There seems
to be an unfortunate trend in Asia whereby the highest-profile films of the
year are being banned. In February, Bangladesh joined Bhutan and Jordan on the
list by banning “No Bed of Roses”, a drama starring Bollywood actor Irrfan Khan. Reasons for the ban are unclear, but it appears to be due to
allegations from the widow of acclaimed author/filmmaker Humayun Ahmed (who was
also a strong supporter of the current ruling party) that the film is an unauthorized
dramatization of her husband’s life. All but one of the Bangladeshi submissions
since 2005 have been produced by Impress Telefilms, the dominant national film
studio. That bodes well for “Hotath Dekha”, a co-production with India about
two characters who meet on a train in 1938 Bengal, and “Rina Brown”, a romance
between a Muslim man and a Christian girl on the eve of the war for
independence. Films about the 1971 war are always popular subjects for Bangladeshi cinema. If selected,
“Rina Brown” would be the first female-helmed film to represent the country.
However, most Bangladeshi films that have received buzz abroad have been made
outside the Impress studio system, including two decidedly arthouse entries-
“Live from Dhaka” (Singapore) and Abu Sayeed’s crowd-funded “Death of a Poet”- as well as “Gopon: The Inner Sound”, which won Best Foreign Film at the Delhi Film
Festival. Other Bangladeshi movies about the war for independence this year include “Bhuban Majhi” and “Lal Sobujer Sur”, which could be selected.
My prediction: “Rina Brown” ends up being one of the more obscure entries
on this year's Oscar longlist, with war drama “Bhuban Majhi” in second, dramedy “Hotath
Dekha” in third, and arthouse “Gopon” in fourth.
3. BHUTAN- “Honey Giver
Among the Dogs” Bhutan submitted a film just once in 1999, for Khynetse Norbu’s
delightful “The Cup”. According to the national newspaper/news agency Kuensel, the producers of Norbu’s latest
film- “Hema Herma: Sing Me A Song While I Wait” were preparing to submit their film- when the film (which has delighted audiences in Locarno, Toronto
and Busan) was unexpectedly banned. Bhutan, best known for its mountain scenery
and “gross national happiness” policy is not known for censorship. However, the Bhutan
InfoComm and Media Authority (BICMA) refused to budge, meaning the film cannot
be screened in Bhutan and thus cannot compete for an Oscar. The reasons are vague,
but it appears the cultural authorities objected to the way Bhutanese masks were
used in the film, in fictional, non-traditional ceremonies. This is a pity for
Bhutanese filmmakers and a shameful act of censorship. But all is not lost. Bhutan actually had two well-reviewed
films at Busan, so I’m hopeful they’ll send film-noir mystery “Honeygiver Among
the Dogs” this year until “Hema Hema” can work out its issues with the
government. But they probably won’t send anything. “Honeygiver” is about a
policeman searching for two missing people- a monk and a local femme fatale. “Serga
Mathang”, which won Best Picture at the National Film Awards, won’t figure into the decision-making.
4. CAMBODIA-
“Diamond Island” Most of Cambodia’s film and
television industry were executed or exiled during the Khmer Rouge genocide of
the 1970s, but the country has submitted films four of the past five years, and
netted an unexpected Oscar nomination for Rithy Panh’s documentary “The Missing
Picture”. I used to struggle to find even one eligible Cambodian film, but this year’s Cambodia International Film Festival (CIFF) featured six new movies. This year’s nominee is almost certain to be “Diamond Island”,
which screened at Cannes Critics Week 2016 before opening in Cambodian cinemas in
October. It’s a familiar story- boy from the countryside moves to the big city to
find work and falls in love with a local girl- but it’s all supposedly done
very well. The main competition comes from Oscar nominee Panh, who has another
Khmer Rouge documentary out this year- the French-language “Exile”. However, it’s so
abstract and cerebral that I think the Cambodian Academy will give 33-year old Davy
Chou a chance. The other four Cambodian premieres at the CIFF included a
psychological thriller, a popular martial arts action film, a horror film and
an LGBT-themed chase comedy.
5. CHINA- “The Chinese Widow” Director Feng Xiaogang has been
selected by Chinese officialdom to represent the country twice. He is one of
China’s biggest box-office draws and his “I Am Not Madame Bovary” has been the
front-runner all year, ever since its domestic release date was postponed from
September to November 2016, changing the year it was eligible. It won Best
Picture at the Asian Film Awards and at the China Film Directors Awards and was nominated at the Golden Horse Awards in Taiwan. “Madame Bovary” is a
comedy/satire about a woman who is double-crossed by her ex-husband after the
two plan a fake divorce to get around government land regulations. Will China
feel comfortable nominating a film with a heroine who is trying to cheat the
government? Probably not, but they did approve it for release. China is usually the last major country to announce their Oscar pick, and they often make strange decisions. In the past three years, they've selected movies
out of left field, that few people had heard of, and which hadn’t won any
awards of note. For that reason, I’m wondering if “Madame Bovary” could get
bumped by nationalist war drama “The Chinese Widow”, directed by Danish Oscar
winner Bille August and starring Emile Hirsch as a downed American pilot who is
cared for by a benevolent Chinese family during WWII. Although the film isn’t
supposed to be very good, this sounds much more like China’s cup of tea. "The Chinese Widow" opened the Shanghai Film Festival and China has a tradition of sending films to
the Oscars with Hollywood stars (Adrien Brody and Tim Robbins in “Back to
1942”, Christian Bale in “Flowers of War”). Feng Xiaogang also has a new movie
premiering in October (“Youth”) that could arrange an early release. Three
other Chinese films deserve a mention here: “Summer is Gone” is this year’s arthouse
frontrunner. It beat out “Madame Bovary” for Best Picture at the Golden Horse
Awards, and is an intimate B&W tale of a Chinese family living in Inner
Mongolia. “Lady in the Portrait” is this year’s costume drama frontrunner,
starring Fan Bingbing (who also plays (not) Madame Bovary) as a 16th century
Empress who commissions a portrait by a French artist. “Wasted Times” is a
lush, period crime epic, co-starring Zhang Ziyi and Japanese actor Tadanobu
Asano. All of these films (except the brand-new “Widow”) competed at the China
Film Director Awards, and appear to have the approval of the Chinese government. Less
likely: China’s festival films have either gotten mixed reviews (“Free
and Easy” from Sundance, “Crosscurrent” from Berlin) or deal with controversial
issues (“Walking Past the Future” from Cannes and “Mr. No Problem” from Tokyo).
Only “Knife in the Clear Water” (Rotterdam) would seem to stand a chance. Dark
horses: a couple of Mainland pictures with Hong Kong directors- girl power
romantic drama “Soul Mate” probably has a better chance to represent Hong Kong than
China, while hit action film “Operation Mekong” isn’t acclaimed enough. In the end, I’m disappointed to say that I’m predicting
“Chinese Widow” will beat out the superior “Madame Bovary”, but I'm hoping that I’m wrong. Rounding
out the Top Seven from the world’s largest nation: (in order) “Wasted Times”,
“Summer is Gone”, “Lady in the Portrait”, “Youth” and “Knife in the Clear
Water”. Or maybe something nobody has ever heard of.
6. HONG KONG- “Our Time Will Come” Hong
Kong is confusing because many of the territory's top directors are now working on the
Mainland, with its mega-market of 1.2 billion cinemagoers. At the same time there are
a growing number of people wary of Mainland influence and urging the protection
of Hong Kong’s distinct culture and Cantonese language. The obvious Oscar front-runner is “Our Time Will Come”, a large scale historical drama directed
by Ann Hui, who has represented Hong Kong four times. It’s about how local Hong
Kongers and Chinese guerillas fought the Japanese together during World War II. It’s
gotten decent reviews, but Hong Kong’s artistic community may be reluctant to
select a film that was released to celebrate twenty years since the unification of China
and Hong Kong (it depends who’s on the selection committee!) Still, for now
that’s the front-runner. Two small-scale dramas (of the sort selected in 2010
and 2011) also have a chance, namely Cantonese-language “Mad World” (winner of
two acting awards at the Hong Kong Film Awards), about a man struggling with
mental illness, and Mandarin-language “Soul Mate” (nominated for Best Director
at Asian Film Awards and Best Picture at the HK Film Awards), an emotional
girl-power romantic drama about two best friends in love with the same man.
They haven’t chosen a big martial arts movie in years (2006 and 2008), but these
visually impressive films may impress members of the tech branches. Of these,
the ones with the best chance are Gordon Chan’s “God of War”, about local Chinese
fending off Japanese pirates in the 16th century, and the upcoming Tsui
Hark-produced “Thousand Faces of Dunjia”, a wuxia
film about the formation of secret society. It’s set to bow October 1st,
but Hong Kong frequently arranges an Oscar-qualifying release to promote new films. They could also do the same for “Find Your Voice”, a new
Andy Lau movie about a grouchy choir (Oscar loves choirs!) that is currently without a release
date. I’m predicting “Our Time Will Come”, but I’m not confident. The rest of
the top five: “Mad World”, “Thousand Faces of Dunjia”, “Soul Mate” and “Find
Your Voice”.
7. INDIA- TBD
8. INDONESIA- “Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts” Indonesia rarely makes movies that make it to the Cannes Film Festival, so “Marlina the Murderer in
Four Acts”, an exciting feminist revenge thriller with shades of “Kill Bill”, is currently the front-runner to represent Indonesia. One big problem- the film has no
domestic release date. Another potential problem- the Indonesian Academy usually sends stuffy historical dramas rather than edgy and exciting
fare like "Marlina". But the film has gotten enthusiastic reviews, and I’m hopeful she’ll make it to
the longlist. Overall, Indonesia is
seeing a film resurgence,
even though they’ve never yet seriously contended for an Oscar. I’m going to
predict “Marlina” gets an Oscar-qualifying release this "island western" about a kick-ass widow who takes revenge on the men who have wronged her. Other possibilities include a trio of historical dramas
(“Kartini”, “Solo, Solitude” and “A Woman From Java”) and two melodramas
(“Salawaku” and “A Letter to God”). If “Marlina” doesn’t get released, I think Indonesia will select “Kartini”, about a feminist hero who defied the traditions of her high-born family to fight for
women’s rights in early 20th century Indonesia.
Director Bramantyo was selected in 2014 and the film co-stars Indonesia's most acclaimed actress- Christine Hakim- as Kartini’s mother. In third place: “A Letter to God”, about
two street children whose fates diverge when the girl is suddenly adopted by a foreign family. She then searches for her
best friend a decade later. Garin Nugroho , one of Indonesia’s most senior
directors, hasn’t been selected since 1998 but his “A Woman From Java”, about
the Indonesian concubine of an elderly Dutch merchant in the colonial era, will
come fourth and road movie “Salawaku”, which got a Best Pic nominee at last year’s
national Citra Awards, will probably come fifth.
9. JAPAN-
“Harmonium” I lived in Japan five years but I’ve never
once predicted them correctly. Their choices tend to be extremely random. I’ve managed to see seventeen out of eighteen submissions since 1999 and they’ve sent some
brilliant films (the best was “Confessions”) as well as some real losers (last
year’s “Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”) that nobody inside or outside Japan
seemed to like. So it’s best not to spend too much time trying to understand. This
year, I predict they’ll send “Harmonium”, a dark drama about a man who hires his
friend who has just been released from prison. The “friend” (played by Japanese
superstar Tadanobu Asano) begins to insinuate himself into the lives of the man’s
family. It won the 2016 Jury Prize in Cannes “Un Certain Regard”, and was
the only Japanese film to be nominated for Best Picture at the 2017 Asian Film
Awards. It has good reviews and starpower and has the same dark tone of their
2010 and 2014 submissions. Not far
behind is Hirokazu Koreeda’s “The Third Murder”, which opens in September. Koreeda
is a brilliant director who works outside the studio system. He’s frequently
passed over for great work ("Like Father, Like Son" etc.) but he was selected by the Japanese Academy once. Told from three perspectives, “The Third Murder” is
about a murderer, a lawyer and the family of a murder victim. Three strong dark
horses are (1)- “The Old Capital”, a family drama about a traditional family whose
business has hundreds of years of roots to the city of Kyoto, but which is
having trouble adjusting to the modern world; (2)- “Oh Lucy!”, a quirky
low-key comedy that was called a “hidden gem” at Cannes, stars Shinobu Terajima
and Josh Hartnett as a bored office lady and her English teacher. (It’s produced
by Will Ferrell!) and (3) “In this Corner of the World”, a gorgeous animated
film about Hiroshima in the years leading up to World War II, which won Best
Animated Film (a very competitive
category in Japan!) at the Japanese Academy Awards this year. I wouldn’t be
surprised if any of these five were selected. Cancer comedy “Her Loves Boils
Bathwater” and samurai movies “Tatara Samurai” and ultra-violent “Blade of the
Immortal” have all gotten great reviews….but none of them seem serious enough to be
the Japanese candidate. And the high-profile “Radiance” from Naomi Kawase has
gotten mostly mixed reviews. I still say “Harmonium” gets this, with “Third Murder” and “Oh
Lucy!” the most likely spoilers.
10. KAZAKHSTAN- “Returnee” Kazakh films do
well at international film festivals, though these arthouse films don’t always
get released at home. Kazakhstan doesn’t have any obvious contenders this year.
Their most acclaimed film (“Road to Mother”) was released on September 29th, 2016 meaning it was eligible for last year. I predict the Kazakhs send “The
Returnee”, a drama about the oralman, ethnic Kazakhs from
other countries (mostly China and Mongolia) who are invited by the Kazakh
government to resettle in Kazakhstan. Although they are “Kazakhs” ethnically,
these immigrants often have a difficult time adjusting to the more liberal and secular,
Russified culture of Kazakhstan. It was the only Kazakh fiction feature at the
Eurasian Film Festival (Kazakhstan’s largest) and it won Best Asian Film at the
Fajr Film Festival in Iran. In second place is “Districts” (Rayony), a
well-received crime drama by Akan Satayev, who has represented Kazakhstan twice
before. A third option would be “The Plague at the Karatas Village”, an arty
drama about a new mayor confronted with a strange village plague. It earned Kazakhstan a prestigious nomination for “Best Film From the
CIS Countries” at the 2017 Russian Nika Awards. Less likely: taxi driver drama
“4+1” (Busan 2016) and 3-hour biopic “Aktoty”.
11. KOREA-
“Warriors of the Dawn” South Korea is the world’s greatest
filmmaking nation that has never been nominated for an Oscar. They’ve tried everything- arthouse/festival darlings,
big-budget war movies, big-budget costume dramas, mainstream box-office hits, comedies, dramas and action movies- but
nothing works. This year, they’ve got a lot of contenders (including five by
previously submitted directors, four that premiered at Cannes and two that
premiered in Berlin), with no obvious frontrunner. The highest-profile Korean film of the year is
“Okja”, starring Tilda Swinton, Jake Gyllenhaal and a flatulent, giant animated pig.
It premiered at Cannes and is being called this year’s “E.T.” However because
it may have premiered online and also has a lot of English, I don't think it will be considered. From
Korea’s arthouse branch we have “Bacchus Lady” (Berlin 2016), “On the Beach At
Night Alone” (Best Actress; Berlin 2017) and “The Day After” (Cannes 2017). The
Koreans love their anti-Japanese history movies (e.g. “Anarchist From Colony”,
“Snowy Road” and “Battleship Island”, all set in the colonial era, as well as “Warriors of
the Dawn” set in the 16th century), but they also sent one last year. And
although they rarely send them to the Oscars, they have a number of crime
dramas that could compete here like “The Merciless” (Cannes), box-office hit “New
Trial”, corruption drama “Ordinary Person” (Moscow) and this summer’s upcoming
“VIP”. And it’s never wise to count out
(1)- Song Kang-ho, who has starred
in the Korean submissions the past two years and who stars in “Taxi Driver”,
about a man driving a German journalist around during one of Korea’s most
politically turbulent times, or (2)- Kim
Ki-duk who should have two Oscar noms already for “Spring Summer Fall
Winter Spring” and the disturbing “Pieta”. Kim has a new movie- “The Net”- about
a North Korean fisherman who accidentally drifts into South Korean waters. It’s
gotten good reviews, though they say it’s not his best film. Ultimately,
I think it will depend whether Korea wants to go large or small; set in 1592,
“Warriors of the Dawn” is a splashy historical drama about mercenaries fighting
against the Japanese with great battle scenes and high production values. It
couldn’t be more different than “Bacchus Lady”, a comparatively low-budget film
about the surprising Korean phenomena of elder prostitution, that has quietly gained
strong notices since its Cannes debut over a year ago. I'll pick “Warriors” since
Korea has tended to go glossy the last few years and "Bacchus is a bit disturbing. Rounding out the Top Five:
Kim Ki-duk’s “The Net” , big-budget prison break drama “Battleship Island” and
noirish police drama “Ordinary Person”. I wouldn’t count out festival films
“The Day After” or “On the Beach At Night Alone” either, but reviews have been
more mixed.
12. KYRGYZSTAN- “Centaur” Kyrgyzstan takes on the story of Don Quixote in "Centaur", a village drama about a man living with his wife and handicapped son, who secretly frees racehorses in the middle of the night. Director Aktan Arym Kubat (formerly known professionally as Aktan
Abdykalykov) is the country’s best-known director and his films have
represented the country three times. Combine that with the fact the film
won two awards in Berlin and was the country’s representative at Karlovy Vary,
and “Centaur” looks like a shoo-in. Dark horse: “Finding Mother” has also
gotten good notices (and some US screenings) for its story of a Kyrgyz orphan
who goes to the United States to find his long-lost mother.
13. MALAYSIA- “Interchange” Malaysia’s first-ever Oscar submission was a Malay-language
fantasy film by ethnic Chinese director Teong Hin Saw. This year, most
everyone would agree that Malaysia’s best film of the year is “You Mean the
World to Me”, a semi-autobiographical drama about Saw’s difficult relationship
with his mother. It has an all-star regional cast and is lensed by Wong
Kar-wai cinematographer Christopher Doyle. In any other
country, this critically-acclaimed family drama would be automatically be the country’s Oscar
submission. But the film is about an ethnic Chinese family, and Malaysia has a
system of pervasive legal and cultural discrimination against its Chinese and Indian ethnic minorities. I’d say it’s extremely
unlikely they would select a Chinese-language film to represent the country, no
matter how good it is (In 2014, Malaysia sent nothing, rather than send “The Journey”). However, things may be changing. Last year, a
number of prominent Malay filmmakers threatened to boycott the Malaysian Film
Festival in protest of the rule that only Malay-language films could compete in
the main awards (Malaysian Chinese and Indian films would
be relegated to a sort of Best Foreign Language Film category). Due to the controversy, the festival
was forced to change the rules, and a Tamil-language film won. So, I hope I'm wrong. For now though, I still think the Malaysian Academy will seek to send a
Malay film….Problem is, they don’t have much to choose from this year. One option is
“Interchange” (Toronto 2016), a weird fantasy-mystery about a forensics
photographer trying to solve a supernatural murder. Director Dain Said directed Malaysia’s second Oscar submission (“Bunohan”). Other possibilities: social dramas
“Adiwiraku”, about a rural school and “Hijabsta Ballet”, about a young
ballerina who insists on wearing a hijab when she dances. I’m definitely rooting for “You Mean the World to Me”, but ethnic prejudice means
I’m going to predict “Interchange”, even though it hasn’t gotten great reviews. But then, most Malaysian films sent to the Oscars haven’t either.
14. MONGOLIA- “Children of Genghis” Mongolia
hasn’t been on the Oscar list since 2005. Both their previous submissions were
directed by Germany-based Byambasuren Davaa who got a Documentary Oscar nomination for
“The Story of the Weeping Camel” after failing the make the shortlist for
Foreign Film the year before. Davaa said in a 2017 interview that she is
working on “several projects” but nothing is ready to start filming. She also mentioned that her next film may be a fiction film. The Mongolians began a new national film Awards this year, so perhaps that will inspire them to rejoin the Oscar
race. This year, the two front-runners are “Faith”, a moral dilemma drama
about the pervasiveness of corruption in Mongolia which won Best Picture at the new awards, and “Children of Genghis”, a US co-production which appears to be a sort
of docudrama about Mongolian children learning the ancient sport of horse
racing. I give the edge to “Genghis”.
15. NEPAL- “White Sun” Few countries this
year have an easier decision than the Himalayan nation of Nepal, which is
certain to submit “White Sun”, which has played at a dozen festivals since its
premiere in Venice last August. It won the Interfilm Award there, as well as prizes at Palm Springs (Grand Jury Prize) and Singapore (Best Asian Film). This film,
about a political activist burying his father amidst ancient traditions, family
pressures, caste differences and the challenges of living under the new, post-war
republican government, is said to be one of the best films ever made by a
Nepali director. The Hollywood Reporter specifically noted in its review
that the film could “go a fair distance” in the Foreign Language category. It’s
a lock.
16. PAKISTAN- “Rahm” Pakistan is my home country until September 2nd,
and I’ve had a wonderful year here. Unfortunately, although national cinema has
really been improving, many Pakistanis still snobbishly say they won’t go and
see local films. While here, I’ve tried to encourage people to support their
local cinema industry. I see five possibilities this year: (1)- “Abdullah: The Final Witness”, a
film based on a true story about an innocent truck driver convicted of the
murder of several foreign citizens in Balochistan
province. It was set to premiere in 2015 but was banned by the Pakistani censors
until Fall 2016; (2)- “Gardaab”, a gritty thriller very loosely based on Romeo
& Juliet, set amidst the slums of Karachi, (3)- “Rahm”, also based
on a Shakespeare play (the less well-known “Measure for Measure”),
about a woman trying to save her innocent brother from being executed by a
fanatical, religious governor, (4)- “Salute”, based on the true story of a
teenaged boy who died saving his school from a suicide bomber and (5)- the
long-delayed “Saya-e-Khuda-e-Zuljalal” (aka “SKZ”…I predicted it two or three
years ago), a nationalist action film about Pakistan's worsening relations with India between Pakistani independence in 1947 and the Indo-Pakistan War of
1965. Less likely: two-time Oscar winner Sharmeen Obaid Chinoy’s new animated film “3
Bahadur”, or upcoming revenge thriller “Wujood". In the past four years since Pakistan returned to the Oscar race
(after a 50-year absence), Pakistan has selected one “indie” movie, and three arty
but mainstream dramas. For that reason, I’m predicting a surprise nod for the
relatively obscure “Rahm”, which has arguably gotten the strongest reviews and
which is not controversial like “Abdullah” or “Salute”. I’ll rank the other
Shakespearean adaptation- “Gardaab” – in second place with "SKZ" a strong third.
17. PHILIPPINES-
“Pedicab” I honestly don’t have a clue what the Philippines will
send to the Oscars this year. They have a couple dozen mostly well-received films that have won
awards at the country’s numerous awards shows and film festivals. Virtually none
of them have been screened at any major film festivals (except “Pedicab”), and almost none of
them have been reviewed by international critics. To make things more complicated, they have nine new films premiering at the Cinemalaya Film Festival in August, which often supplies many of their Oscar submissions. So, I'm definitely going to get this one wrong. I vaguely see the ten leading candidates (in alphabetical order)
as “Apocalypse Child”, “Baconaua”, “Die Beautiful”, “Mercury is Mine”, “Mrs.”,
“Patay na si Jesus”, “Pedicab”, “Right to Kill”, “The Sun Behind You” and
“Women of the Weeping River”….but none of them seems especially likely. My prediction is “Pedicab”, but only
because it won Best Picture at the Shanghai Film Festival. It’s a black
comedy about a poor family moving from the slums of Manila, back to their home
village. Reviews have been good but not great. My runner-ups: “Apocalypse
Child”, about a youth in a surfing town who believes he was conceived
during the filming of “Apocalypse Now”, “Women of the Weeping River”, a drama
about a blood feud in a Muslim village which dominated the Gawan Urian Awards
and “Die Beautiful”, by the director of “Bwakaw”, a surprisingly heartwarming
comedy about a family trying to honor a transgender woman’s last wish to appear dressed as a different celebrity each night of her wake. The Philippines is the most confusing country in the
world this year.
18. SINGAPORE- “A Yellow
Bird” Tiny Singapore has submitted films six years in a row now, and appears to have become a
regular participant in thi category. Although most of their films are made in
Chinese or English, this year's two main contenders are in minority
languages. The front-runner has got to be “A Yellow Bird”, which premiered in
the International Critics Week section of the 2016 Cannes Film Festival. That’s a big deal for Singapore. The multilingual film is mostly in Tamil and
focuses on an Indian Singaporean whose family rejects him after he is released
from prison. Singapore likes to highlight its multicultural society and has
never selected a director from the minority Indian community (although director
Rajagopal was one of the short film directors who made the entertaining
omnibus “7 Letters”). The problem is that “A Yellow Bird” hasn’t gotten very
good reviews, with critics applauding the cinema verite style, but
also calling the film slow, boring and/or difficult to watch. A fun, alternate
choice would be the Thai-language “Pop Aye”, a road movie made in Thailand by
Singaporean director Kirsten Tan. It delighted audiences when it premiered in
Sundance and it's been getting great reviews around the world. Starring 50-something Thai
singer Thaneth Warakulnukroh alongside a scene-stealing elephant, “Pop Aye” is an indie dramedy
about a man travelling with his childhood friend (an elephant) on a road trip back to his hometown. I’m
rooting for “Pop Aye”, but I think the more “authentically Singaporean” “Yellow Bird” will be Singapore’s submission.
19. SRI LANKA- “Aloko
Udapadi” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a movie since 2009, despite a medium-sized
film industry that annually produces several dozen films. They’ve only sent two
films before- first an arthouse costume drama (“Mansion By the Lake”), followed by a more
commercial effort (“The Road From Elephant Pass”). Their best movie of the year is
said to be “Burning Birds’ (Busan, Tokyo, Rotterdam etc.), about a widow forced
to care for a family of nine after her husband is abducted and killed by a
paramilitary group. The director’s first film “Flying Fish” was banned in Sri
Lanka by the previous government in 2011. There’s a more liberal regime in place now,
but the film still hasn’t secured a local release. So, if the Sri Lankans do
elect to send a movie, it will probably be big-budget historical drama
“Aloko Udapadi”, set in 89BC in an ancient kingdom replete with palace intrigue, or the arthouse “Dirty
Yellow Darkness” about a man with mental illness struggling to win back his
wife. This really should be “Burning Birds”, but I’ll guess “Aloko Udapadi”.
20. TAIWAN- “The Road to Mandalay”
Taiwan has a wide open race, with every possible genre in contention to
represent the island- comedy (“Village of No Return”), theatre of the absurd
(“The Great Buddha”), straight drama (“Gangster’s Daughter”, “Missing Johnny”),
arthouse (“Road to Mandalay”, “White Ant”), road movie (“Godspeed”), thriller
(“The Last Painting”), musical (“52Hz, I Love You”), and even an unlikely horror
film (“Mon Mon Mon Monsters”). Most of their top contenders were screened at the Taipei
Film Festival, where the bizarre B&W “The Great Buddha” was the unexpected
winner of both the festival's Grand Prize, and Best Fiction Feature in the Taiwanese film competition. “Road to Mandalay”, about two Burmese migrants living illegally in
Thailand, has been the most acclaimed movie of the year from international
critics, while “Godspeed” managed an impressive number of nominations (including Best
Picture) at the Asian Film Awards and the Golden Horse Film Festival (losing
both to films from Mainland China). The directors of black comedy
“Godspeed” (about a man dealing drugs by hiring a sleep-deprived taxi driver to take him from one
side of the island to the other and back, in 24 hours) and the
Burmese-language “Road to Mandalay” have both been selected before. I’m unsure
what Taiwan will do. “The Great Buddha” just looks too weird. Wei Te-sheng got
Taiwan to the shortlist for “Seediq Bale” but his latest- “52Hz”- didn’t get
great reviews. Taiwan-based Burmese director Midi Z. was selected in 2014, and
selecting a non-Taiwanese twice in four years might be perceived negatively.
It’s a confusing year, but I’m going to predict Midi Z. gets this for “Road to
Mandalay”, with murder mystery “The Last Painting” and Taipei winner “Great
Buddha” not far behind. Less likely:
taxi comedy “Godspeed” and “Missing Johnny”, about a number of characters whose
lives intersect in Taipei. That last one won four awards in Taipei. I personally am
most looking forward to see quirky comedy “Village of No Return”, about a con
artist who brings a magical machine to a small village that causes people to
forget all their bad memories, worries and responsibilities.
21. TAJIKISTAN- “Monkey’s
Dream” Tajikistan hasn’t submitted a movie since 2005, but their biennial Didor International Film Festival featured no less than four new films. So, here’s hoping Tajikistan returns to
the Oscar race with the Russian-language horror-drama “Monkey’s Dream”, a local
retelling of the famous short story “The Monkey’s Paw”, about an Oriental relic
that grants its owner three (cursed) wishes. Sadly, Tajikistan's most famous
international director, Bakhtyar Khudojnazarov,died in 2015.
22. THAILAND- “By The Time It Gets Dark” Thailand has probably had the weakest film year of the major Asian countries, so they don’t have much
to choose from. Most of their film output consists of silly comedies replete
with ghosts and drag queens, a huge number of horror films and the odd martial
arts action movie. I think that the Thais will send “By The Time It Gets Dark”,
a drama that won Best Picture and Best Director at this year’s National Film
Awards. Set in the 1970s, it’s about student protests against the Thai military
junta, and it’s been praised for its unique, dreamlike style of cinematography. However, since 2014 Thailand has once again been ruled by a military junta, which has been busy putting down protests and clamping down on dissidents, so
this film may be a little too close to home. “Bad Genius” isn’t a typical Oscar
submission- it’s a youthful heist thriller- but it’s gotten surprisingly good reviews, it has rocked the Thai box office and won Best Picture at the New York Asian Film
Festival, so that’s probably their second-best option. Other possibilites: romantic drama “A Gas Station” (Busan) and romantic anthology “The Gift”,
featuring music composed by the late King. Less likely: indie drama “Fail
Stage” and Burma co-production “From Bangkok to Mandalay”. One potential dark horse: Thailand selected a
film by an American director in 2015 so they could send critically acclaimed
elephant comedy “Pop Aye” made in Thailand by Singaporean director Kirsten Tan. That would actually be a very smart move.
23. VIETNAM- “Father and Son” Vietnam’s film industry used to be dominated by
dull state-sponsored dramas about Vietnamese history, and the occasional
arthouse film made by Vietnamese directors based overseas. No longer.
Vietnam has a local film industry catering to local tastes, dominated by local
romantic comedies and action movies of the type that are popular all over Asia
and around the world. 18 movies competed at the national Silver Kite
Awards this year, and there wasn’t a Vietnam War movie in sight. The awards
were dominated by rom-coms “Saigon, I Love You” and “12 Zodiac”. “Saigon, I
Love You”, an omnibus of five romantic stories (including a gay couple, and one
foreigner) centered around Ho Chi Minh City, was a local box-office hit and is
eligible this year. It’s possible, but I think the Vietnamese Academy will go
with something more serious. Vietnam’s “The Way Station”, a heavy drama about a
series of characters from all over Vietnam who find themselves in a small
seaside village, won the third biannual ASEAN International Film Festival, and was one of three new features
introduced at Vietnam’s first-ever Cannes pavilion in May (the others were “Cu Li
Never Cries” and “The Third Wife”, which was the recipient of a prestigious grant from Spike Lee's production company). In the end, I think “Saigon” will be too light and the
“The Way Station” (with its sexual themes) will be too heavy. And “The Third Wife”,
about a 19th century girl forced to marry an older man, probably
won’t be released in Vietnam until next year. So my prediction for Vietnam is
“Father and Son”, a slice-of-life drama about a poor, widower fisherman raising
his son in a small village, when his son suddenly falls ill. It’s serious,
non-controversial and pretty.
ISRAEL's "Foxtrot" arguably has the best reviews of the bunch Stateside, and Oscar has shown a strong interest in Israeli stories in the past. The only sign of trouble was a snub at the Golden Globes....Maybe the grim film isn't as accessible as we thought? The expansion of voting to European members could hurt, but I think "Foxtrot" will manage a spot.
The Insult
A Fantastic Woman
Which brings us to SWEDEN. Yes, I know that "The Square" won the Palme d'Or and is considered a dark horse to win. But (A)- I correctly predicted director Ruben Ostlund would fail to get a nomination for cult favorite "Force Majeure" a few years ago, and "Square" is a lighter and less thought-provoking film....and (B)- quite frankly is overlong and not very good. But, I admit the Golden Globe nomination and continued Oscar buzz has surprised me....The addition of European voters could help it knock out the more deserving film from Chile.....Maybe it's just wishful thinking "Square" will be cut. It certainly would be fun to see Ostlund make another viral video about failing to be nominated!
In all likelihood, these three films were saved by the Elite Committee and they aren't always easy to watch. Oddly enough, the films from Hungary and Senegal have a lot in common. Both films premiered at Berlinale and feature unlikely lovers linked together by recurring dreams of animals. HUNGARY's "On Body and Soul" won the Grand Prize in Berlin and will certainly appeal to arthouse critics, while "Felicite"- filled with beautiful music- won the Jury Prize. In my opinion, "On Body and Soul" starts out okay, limps along through the middle, and ends with one of the most powerful endings of the competition. SENEGAL's "Felicite" starts out great and stays that way for the first hour....but fizzles out at the end when it loses control of its narrative. I think both of them are too divisive and not enough people will like them for them to advance. Incidentally, although "Felicite" is the first film ever to represent Senegal, it's actually made in Congo-Kinshasa with a Congolese cast and a director born and raised in Paris, who has one Senegalese grandparent.
I just saw "The Wound" from SOUTH AFRICA today, which is pushing for the "culturally exotic" slot that went to "Tanna" last year. It's a fantastic feature debut and an interesting story, but I can also tell the film will be divisive. The screenplay is great with a great (albeit somewhat predictable) ending, but I sometimes had a hard time getting into the story. This controversial story of Xhosa initial rituals and homosexuality will probably fail to make the cut.
ISRAEL's "Foxtrot" arguably has the best reviews of the bunch Stateside, and Oscar has shown a strong interest in Israeli stories in the past. The only sign of trouble was a snub at the Golden Globes....Maybe the grim film isn't as accessible as we thought? The expansion of voting to European members could hurt, but I think "Foxtrot" will manage a spot.
A Fantastic Woman
In all likelihood, these three films were saved by the Elite Committee and they aren't always easy to watch. Oddly enough, the films from Hungary and Senegal have a lot in common. Both films premiered at Berlinale and feature unlikely lovers linked together by recurring dreams of animals. HUNGARY's "On Body and Soul" won the Grand Prize in Berlin and will certainly appeal to arthouse critics, while "Felicite"- filled with beautiful music- won the Jury Prize. In my opinion, "On Body and Soul" starts out okay, limps along through the middle, and ends with one of the most powerful endings of the competition. SENEGAL's "Felicite" starts out great and stays that way for the first hour....but fizzles out at the end when it loses control of its narrative. I think both of them are too divisive and not enough people will like them for them to advance. Incidentally, although "Felicite" is the first film ever to represent Senegal, it's actually made in Congo-Kinshasa with a Congolese cast and a director born and raised in Paris, who has one Senegalese grandparent.
