OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the Eastern Euro Submissions

It's that time of year!  Here are my predictions for the Oscar submissions from the 24 countries of Eastern Europe. 

The big question here is whether Russia will participate. There's been no word about them being disinvited from the Oscars the way they have for sporting events.....Georgia- where there have been reports of increasing artistic censorship, and Russia will have the most interesting races.

1.  ALBANIA- “The Albanian Virgin” Bujar Alimani has represented Albania 3 out of 14 times, and is the only living Albanian director to have been selected more than once. Considering that his Communist-era melodrama “The Albanian Virgin” (Warsaw) is one of the best-reviewed Albanian films in years, it would be foolish to bet against him. Set in the 1950s and 60s, "Virgin" is about a woman trying to live her own life despite the extreme pressures of Communism and misogynistic Albanian traditions. Upcoming drama “A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On”, about two deaf-mute twins who learn they are going blind, is a dark horse from the director they selected in 2017.

2.  ARMENIA- “Aurora’s Sunrise” Armenia used to submit intermittently but they have been a regular participant for the past six years. This year, they have two good options- “Amerikatsi” (The American),  a drama which opened the country’s Golden Apricot Film Festival, and “Aurora’s Sunrise”, an animated documentary about a woman who was the only person in her family to survive the Armenian genocide. These are two really strong contenders although I think the animated documentary- which was recently featured in the prestigious Annecy festival of Animation- will beat the drama, also about an Armenian genocide survivor, this time a man who leaves his home in the United States to return to repressive Soviet Armenia in 1947.

3.  AZERBAIJAN- “Sughra & Her Sons” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscar competition last year for the first time in four years with quirky comedy “The Island Within”. Azerbaijani cinemas had been closed for most of the pandemic but finally reopened in Fall 2021. I see three possible contenders, including two by up-and-coming 35-year old director Hilal Baydarov. “Crane Lantern” premiered at the 2021 Tokyo Film Festival, while “Sermon to the Fish” is scheduled to premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno 2022 (quite an accomplishment for the Azerbaijani film industry!). “Lantern” is co-produced by Danny Glover and Mexican director Carlos Reygadas and is said to be a challenging, arthouse film about a man accused of kidnapping four women, all of whom mysteriously decline to press charges against him. “Sermon” is about a man who returns to his home village only to find his dying sister is the sole survivor of a mysterious illness. There’s also “Sughra & Her Sons”, about a band of Azeri women running a village while their menfolk are away fighting during WWII. Director Ilgar Najaf directed two of Azerbaijani’s eight Oscar submissions so far. It’s a tight race and may depend on what gets released in Baku before the November 30^th deadline. I predict the cliquey Azeris go back to Najaf.

4. /  BELARUS- “Courage” I actually don’t expect Belarus to enter the race this year and with international sanctions against the country, I’m actually wondering whether they’ll even be invited. If the selection committee is under the control of the government-in-exile, I predict they’ll send one of the many documentaries on the protest movement that has sprung up in the country since the rigged 2020 elections, including “Courage”, “Mara” and “When Flowers are not Silent”. They could also opt for “Summer of ‘89”, a coming-of-age drama about one of the last high-school classes in the former USSR. I’ll predict “Courage” which has gotten the most play in Western Europe.

5.   BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair” Danis Tanovic won Best Foreign Film for “No Man’s Land” and Bosnia has selected all three of his locally-made films since. Black comedy “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”, a low-budget effort about two neighborhood restaurants feuding amidst the COVID-19 outbreak, has gotten good reviews and is likely to continue his streak. However, a few days ago, the Sarajevo Film Festival announced that Aida Begic (“Quo Vadis, Aida”, which should have won the Oscar last year) is premiering her latest, “A Ballad”, at Sarajevo in August. Bosnian films often take a long time to hit theatres so “Neighborhood” is still my pick....But if “A Ballad”, her first comedy, gets released, it could very well get the nod. Dark horses: “Die Before Death”, about a successful young doctor who learns he is dying….and domestic violence drama “So She Doesn’t Live”.

6.   BULGARIA- “In the Heart of the Machine” Set during Communist times, prison drama “In the Heart of the Machine” has dominated Bulgarian critic’s prizes this year, winning Best Bulgarian Film at both national film festivals. It’s also done well at the box office and has an all-star cast of well-known actors. With Bulgaria mostly absent from festivals this year, this should be enough to defeat its two main competitors, “Petya of My Petya”, about a pair of similar suicides 30 years apart, and horror-drama “January”. Very dark horses: comedy-drama “Humble” and big-budget (but not critically acclaimed) biopic “Botev”.

7.   CROATIA- “The Staffroom” Croatia has a history of making strange decisions and although they haven’t been universally loved, I'm a big fan of their past two super-dark submissions. This year, I see this as a two-way battle between “The Staffroom”, which won two awards at Karlovy Vary 2021, and “Sixth Bus”, about the Vukovar tragedy during the 1991 Croatian War of independence. I thought this would be a really tough battle but when “Sixth Bus” went home empty-handed at the Pula Film Festival and “Staffroom” dominated the major awards, I think it’s a safe prediction.  “The Staffroom”, which also benefits from being a more universal story, is about an idealistic teacher struggling to stay motivated within a corrupt school system. However, don’t count out “Bus”, which is supposed to be one of the better war films and features an American protagonist. Dark horse in 3^rd place: Haneke-esque “The Uncle” (Karlovy Vary).

8.  CZECH REPUBLIC- “The Last Race” The Czechs used to be a powerhouse in this category but they haven’t been nominated since 2003. They almost always choose a film from the Karlovy Vary Film Festival and this year they’d have eight choices. The frontrunners are (1)- “The Word”, a family drama set against the backdrop of the Prague Spring  and one of only two Czech features in the main competition of KVIFF (it won Director and Actor), and (2)- “The Last Race”, a skiing drama set in 1913 (the Czechs have sent two sports dramas recently). Jan Sverak, who won the Oscar for “Kolya”, has a new film called “Bethlehem Light” about an author who talks to his fictional creations, although the Czech Academy hasn't sent a Sverak film in two decades. Other options: erotic comedy-drama “Borders of Love”, which has done better with viewers than critics, murder-thriller “Shadowplay” (whose Slovak director made the wonderful Holocaust drama “The Auschwitz Report”), and “Somewhere Over the Chemtrails” (Berlin), a dramedy about racism. I’m picking “Last Race” which has the best reviews.

9.   ESTONIA- “The Sleeping Beast” Estonia, which in my opinion makes the best films in the Baltic Republics, doesn’t have much to send this year. The two films that I expected to be the frontrunners both have problems- “Deserted”, about a Swedish journalist kidnapped by Palestinian terrorists, is directed by Kadri Kõusaar, who made “Mother”, one of my favorite Estonian submissions. But it appears to be almost completely in English. Elmo Nuganen is the Estonian director with the biggest box-office draw, and his hotly anticipated medieval mystery “Melchior the Apothecary” was my prediction last year…But reviews have been mixed and there are three separate "Melchior" films being released in cinemas this year, almost like a TV series.  “The Sleeping Beast”, a thriller about the misadventures of a group of neighborhood kids, could fill the gap, as could romantic countryside drama “The Bog”. In the end, it’s probably between the high production values of “Melchior” and the somewhat better reviews for “Sleeping Beast”, which is my prediction. 

10.   GEORGIA- “Bebia, à mon seul désir” Georgia has a particularly confusing race this year, amidst charges of censorship and political interference in the arts (including cinema) by Minister of Culture Tea Tsulukiani, as well as cultural and religious conservatives. “A Room of My Own” (Karlovy Vary), about two women living together during a strict COVID quarantine, and “Wet Sand” (Locarno), about a woman who arrives in a village after the mysterious death of her grandfather, would both make excellent submissions…but underlying LGBT themes in both films might prevent the films from being screened in Georgia (the premiere of the superb “And Then We Danced” was the subject of violent protests by Christian crazies) and/or make the Georgian Academy nervous. I can confirm “Sand” did at least get a festival screening in Tbilisi in December. Two acclaimed movies from last year- “Otar’s Death” (Karlovy Vary 2021; Best Picture in Tbilisi) and “Bebia” weren’t submitted for consideration last year; maybe they’re eligible this year? (“Otar”, which would be Georgia’s best bet, sadly appears to have gotten a qualifying release in 2021). “Winter Blues”, a simple tale about a depressed young writer who meets a bohemian girl, wouldn't be uncontroversial at all…but it’s so low-budget that the Georgians might want to send something a little more sophisticated. “Taming the Garden”, a documentary that was pulled from theatres because it defamed a powerful oligarch, wouldn’t be acceptable under the current political environment. So what will they choose? I’m hoping one of the queer films gets picked. They may select something released at the very last minute…but for now I’m going to predict “Bebia, à mon seul désir” from last year gets a qualifying release so they can avoid sending one of the more controversial choices.

11.  HUNGARY- “The Grandson”  Hungary had a lot of contenders last year, but this year I see just three- “The Game”, “Gentle” and “The Grandson”. “The Game” is a Cold War thriller that’s currently getting strong notices in Hungarian theatres. It’s a sequel to a popular film (“The Exam”) but critics say you don’t need to see the first to understand the story. “Gentle” is the highest-profile Hungarian film, focusing on a female bodybuilder who becomes an escort to make some extra money. But the Hungarians pick whatever they like best (last year they picked a horror flick over a critical favorite WWII film) and I think that will be “The Grandson”, a thriller about a young man trying to save his grandfather from a financial scam. Dark horse: upcoming adoption drama “Six Weeks”.

12.  KOSOVO- “Vera Dreams of the Sea” Last year, tiny Kosovo had four films- all directed by women- at major film festivals. “Hive” (Sundance) went to the Oscars and got Kosovo’s first-ever spot on the shortlist. Their other three 2021 films- “The Hill Where Lionesses Roar” (Cannes), “Looking for Venera” (Rotterdam) and “Vera Dreams of the Sea” (Venice/Tokyo)- don’t seem to have premiered in Kosovo so they all could be eligible. I'm not sure. I think “Vera”, which won the Grand Prize in Tokyo, is the frontrunner. Focusing on a widow trying to overcome the patriarchy, it’s very similar to “Hive” and Kosovo might hope that lightning will strike twice. When comparing the two films last year, Variety opined that “Vera” was the more compelling of the two. But don’t count out “Venera” (Jury Prize in Rotterdam) either, for its well-reviewed tale of female adolescent angst.

13.  LATVIA- “January” The favorite from Latvia is “January”, a topical drama which won Best Feature at the Tribeca Film Festival in New York City. Set in 1991 during the final years of the USSR, it’s about the life of a jaded teenaged artist who joins the Latvian independence movement. Reviews have been good, although critics say the political aspects work better than the personal ones. Perhaps most importantly, director Viestur Kairish has been selected before (for “Chronicles of Melanie”) and had a strong contender two years ago when “Blizzard of Souls” defeated his buzzy “The Sign Painter”. However, there are a flurry of releases coming up this year that could knock “January” off its pedestal, including 80s rock band biopic “Jumprava: The Big Happening”, adoption drama “Sisters”, and Communist tragedy “Soviet Milk”. Of these, I’d say “Sisters” is in second place.

14.  LITHUANIA- “Mariupolis 2” More than any other country in the world, the Lithuanian Academy is partial to documentaries. In the past four years, they’ve opted for documentaries three times (although “The Jump” was disqualified and replaced with a fiction feature). So, although I want to predict crime drama “Pilgrims”, which just won Best Picture at the Silver Crane Awards, I think they’ll send “Mariupolis 2”. This documentary about the war in Ukraine was left unfinished when its Lithuanian director, Mantas Kvedaravicius, was killed by Russian forces. Critics acknowledge the power of the film, made in the virtually destroyed city of Mariupolis, while also noting that it’s basically a series of incomplete fragments- even though it was “finished” by the director’s fiancée and his editor as a labor of love. But this would certainly be a symbolic and sentimental choice for the doc-loving Lithuanians, who also have been the most vocal country in Europe condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Pilgrims” will likely come second. Other options: political thriller “Generation of Evil”, Sergey Loznitsa’s 4-hour documentary “Mr. Landsbergis”, and surreal comedy “Cinephilia”. Lithuania’s biggest film of the year- sci-fi drama “Vesper”- is in English.

15.  MACEDONIA- “Mimi” Macedonia has one of the more confusing races in Europe this year and I’m not sure what they’ll send. Their biggest film is “The Happiest Man in the World”, a Bosnian-language film about two people forced to confront the wars of the 1990s in the unlikely setting of a dating agency, which will premiere later this summer in Venice Horizons. But although Teona Strugar Mitevska is one of Macedonia’s most well-known international directors, they’ve snubbed her three times in a row, including one year when they decided to send nothing rather than the film she had submitted ("When The Day Had No Name" which had just screened in Berlin Panorama). Maybe they just don’t like her? In that case, I’m predicting “Mimi”, an adolescent drama in the mold of what they sent last year, about two sisters dealing with the death of their mother. All their other options seem even more unlikely, including Tarantino-esque comedy “Snow White Dies at the End”, and Slovak-language co-production “Piargy”, about the Antichrist….Or could they possibly send Macedonian-language horror film “You Won’t Be Alone”, which isn’t really a Macedonian film? (I predict Australia will send it instead). 

16.  MOLDOVA- “Carbon” Moldova last sent a film in 2014, the second-longest absence in Europe (after Greenland). This means they’d have to ask AMPAS to re-approve a selection committee. Their only option is "Carbon", a black comedy about the discovery of a dead body in the chaotic 1990s, that is set to premiere in San Sebastian. However, I doubt it will get a cinematic release before November 30. It's likely to be Moldova's third submission, next year. 

17.  MONTENEGRO- “The Elegy of Laurel” I was confident that Montenegro would send “The Face of Honour” but it looks like that is still in post-production.  That means Montenegro will probably send weird fantasy-drama “The Elegy of Laurel”, which premiered at home in February. It's an tonally uneven film about an old man who gets lost in the woods with ghosts and spirits after his wife leaves him at a health spa. Also possible: “The Stork”, a drama made by the country’s minority Albanian-language community which is finished and scheduled to premiere in the autumn...but I'm skeptical they'd pick a film in a minority language. 

18.  POLAND- “EO” Isabelle Huppert! At Cannes! With a donkey! It’s hard to see Poland resisting this charming drama about a donkey repeatedly changing hands around Poland and Italy, after being “rescued” from a circus. Director Jerzy Skolimowski is 84 years old and this could be his last film as director. However, Poland has been nominated four times in the past twelve years and they really want a nomination. “EO” has received positive reviews, but they aren’t necessarily as good as some other Polish films out there this year, including “Fools”, “Fucking Bornholm” and “Sonata”, which all played at Karlovy Vary, “Woman on the Roof” (Tribeca), or any of several new films scheduled to premiere at the Gdynia Polish Film Festival in September, including “Filip”, “Johnny”, “Orleta” or “Below the Surface”.  While I do suspect that “EO” will get this, it’s not at all a sure thing. Rounding out the Top Five: “Below the Surface”, a submarine thriller set during WWII, “Sonata”, about a hearing-impaired musical prodigy, “Orleta” about a school trying to resist the Nazi invasion of their town,  and “Fools”, a mother-son drama.

19.   ROMANIA- “RMN” Romania typically goes with the obvious choice and rarely surprises. They also tend to prefer films by well-known and established (male) directors (they haven’t chosen a female-helmed film since 1973). All this points to “RMN” by Cristian Mungiu (“4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days”, shortlisted for “Beyond the Hills”) being selected after it was nominated for the Palme d’Or this year. It’s topic- hostility against immigrants in a small Transylvania town- is also a topical choice. Three other films- “Metronom” (Cannes Un Certain Regard), about a young defector and his girlfriend in Communist-era Romania, “Immaculate” (Venice), about a young woman in rehab, and “Miracle” (Venice), a thriller about a nun who goes missing- wouldn’t entirely shock, but I think “RMN” is safe.

20.  RUSSIA- “Nuremberg” I’m not sure if Russia will be competing this year. Since they began their brutal invasion of their neighbors in Ukraine, they’ve been banned from a variety of cultural and sporting competitions (though it appears they are still invited to the Oscars). Russia and their Soviet predecessors have only missed one year since 1971 (1993, soon after the USSR fell apart) and they’ve been shortlisted five of the past eight years. If Russia does send a film, I have a feeling they will want to be strategic. They’re unlikely to pick a nationalist epic as they often do, and are more likely to send something apolitical or something showing them in a more positive light. If they go simply by critical acclaim, they’ll choose “Captain Volkonogov Escaped” (Venice 2021) but this anti-Stalin thriller set in 1938 probably parallels too much to Putin (which is exactly what the directors of the Karlovy Vary Film Festival said when they were criticized for screening a Russian film). “Nuremberg” is a thriller scheduled for release in November, set against the backdrop of the post-WWII Nuremberg trials when the U.S. and USSR were still allies. If they want to show a U.S. connection, there’s also “First Oscar”, the backstory of how a Russian documentary won the first-ever Best Documentary Feature in 1943, during WWII, or Syria-set action movie “Infiltration” which shows U.S. and Russian forces working together, and has already been bought for a U.S. remake. U.S.-based Oscar nominee Sergei Bodrov (“Mongol” which he earned for Kazakhstan) has a new (apolitical) drama “Breathe Easy”, about a man struggling with stuttering, while “Nika”, about a Soviet-era poetess won Best Breakthrough Performance at SXSW. If they want a costume drama, they have “Land of Legends”, a big-budget action movie set in the 15^th century, “Amanat”, set in the exotic North Caucasus in the 19^th century, or “December” about defectors in the early 20^th century. If they want something completely apolitical, they have “Non-Orphanage” about the revolt of a group of orphans, or “The One”, about the sole survivor of a plane crash. It’s a confusing race…and they may not even enter. My predictions for Russia’s Top 5: “Nuremberg”, “The One”, “Amanat”, “First Oscar” and “Captain Volkonogov”.  

21.   SERBIA- “Darkling” Serbia has a tight race this year and it all depends on what kind of film they want to send. Serbia produces some wonderful films but, unfortunately, the Serbian Academy tends to send nationalistic films about Serbian history about 50% of the time. For example, two years ago Serbia was hotly tipped for a nomination with “Father”, but they sent a film about Serbs suffering during World War II concentration camps (which was also supposed to be good…but not enough for a nomination). At the same time, they tend to steer away from controversial topics like LGBT issues- like when they picked “When Day Breaks” over crowdpleaser “Parada” in 2011. All of this is bad news for the best-reviewed Serbian film of the year, “As Far As I Can Walk” (Best Picture, Karlovy Vary 2021 & Serbia’s national SOFEST festival), about African refugees, but Variety says it’s mostly in English so we’ll forgive them. So, what are the Serbian frontrunners? If they want to go nationalist, it’s likely to be “Darkling”, highlighting the suffering of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo after Serbia unsuccessfully tried to ethnically cleanse the region of Muslim Albanians, “The Storm”, about 1995 battles between Serbs and Croats, or the lighter “Once Upon A Time in Serbia”, a well-reviewed period comedy-drama set in the years following World War II. If they want a festival favorite (and they sent one last year for the first time in years), they could go with “Working Class Heroes” (Berlinale 2022), about a group of construction workers trying to get their salaries from corrupt bosses. I think a better choice would be “Cutting”, a raucous comedy-drama focused around an uncomfortable family reunion or “Trail of the Beast”, a murder mystery set in Communist times. Dark horse: “How I Learned to Fly” was a huge critical and box-office hit, although it's primarily a film for children and families. “Heavens Above” was my original pick, but it was released in November 2021, making it eligible. My prediction for Serbia’s Top Three: “Darkling”, “Once Upon A Time in Serbia”, and- the film I’m rooting for- “Cutting”.  

22.  SLOVAKIA- “Victim” Slovakia has laid low during the pandemic. For the past two years, Slovak film industry professionals have been working primarily on minority co-productions with the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European countries. However, a new slew of films are scheduled to premiere in 2022. The most likely contender is “Victim”, which has just been selected for the Venice Film Festival. It’s about a Ukrainian woman living in a small Czech town whose son reports being attacked by a group of Roma. She rallies the whole town to her son’s defense…before becoming suspicious about her son’s story. If it’s not that, then I expect it will be “Plastic Symphony”, a family drama about two brothers by documentarian Juraj Lehotsky, or witchcraft drama “Nightsiren”, but it’s difficult since none of these three films have been released yet. The same goes for their other contenders, “Piargy” (about the Antichrist being born in 1939), “The Chambermaid” (a period drama about the friendship between two girls from opposite social classes), “The Cathedral” (a Spanish-language documentary) and “Invalid” (which sounds like a remake of Les Intouchables). 

23.  SLOVENIA- “Bitch, A Derogatory Term for a Woman” This millennial dramedy with an odd title swept the Slovenian Film Awards last year, defeating five other films (a robust number considering the pandemic), including last year’s submission “Sanremo”. Focusing on a hard-drinking, swearing female artist in Ljubljana, it might not do well here but it is certainly the most popular Slovenian choice. There is also a very good chance they could send “My Vesna” (Berlinale 2022), a more traditionally Oscary film. However, the film is set in Australia by a Slovenian-Australian director so perhaps they won’t consider it….or maybe Australia would claim it? Dark horses: upcoming road movie “Riders” (set in 1999) and (attempted) murder mystery “Inventory”.

24.  UKRAINE- “Klondike” Some countries facing war and conflict take a break from cultural competitions. Not Ukraine. They have sought to use Ukrainian artists and athletes to highlight the plight of Ukrainians suffering from the Russian invasion. Ukraine has a surprising number of films at festivals this year (I wonder if that will continue next year?) and they’ll definitely be competing.  Last year, they announced a shortlist of five films. This year, I think that list will include festival favorites “Butterfly Vision” (Cannes), “How is Katia?” (Locarno), “Klondike” (Berlinale, Sundance), and “Pamfir” (Cannes) plus maybe “The Narrow Bridge” or documentaries “Boney Piles” or “A House Made of Splinters”. In the end, I think “Klondike”, about a family living on the Russian-Ukrainian border during the 2014 invasion, has the critical acclaim and subject matter to be the Ukrainian submission. Expect “Pamfir” to come second.

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Eastern Europe

It's that time of year again. The surprise announcement by BELARUS that they would be re-entering the Oscar race after over 20 years (with a "girl power" comedy, no less) spurred me to begin this year's review with the 24 countries of Eastern Europe. Last year, 20 of these countries sent films....This year, we could conceivably see all 24. 

Last year I saw 65 of the record 92 submissions, and I'll include my rankings after reviewing this year's new films, although I probably won't have time to look at all five regions. 

Here are my 24 predictions from Eastern Europe: 

1.  ALBANIA- “Delegation” Albania has a number of films in post-production but they’ve been absent from film festivals this year and I only know of one film (political comedy “The Expats’ Tale”) that has actually been released in theatres. My guess is that they will send a last-minute premiere by one of their previously submitted Oscar teams- either “The Delegation”, a black comedy about Communist Albania’s first encounters with the West in 1990, or “A Shelter Among the Clouds”, a rural drama about faith in a multi-religious region of Albania. “Delegation” is directed by two-time Albanian representative Bujar Alimani and written by Artan Minarolli, who made “Alive”, one of Albania’s best Oscar submissions ever. “Shelter” is directed by Robert Budina who represented Albania in 2013. Dramas “Open Door” and “Broken” could also be selected if they get released in time. My prediction: an early qualifying release for “The Delegation”.

2.  ARMENIA- “Lorik” Armenia’s political revolution has energized an outpouring of creative energy in the country, but film output is way down . There were no National Film Awards last year (originally known as the Hayak Awards, then the Anahit Awards) and the national film festival only had one new feature- namely “Lorik”. “Lorik” stars acclaimed actor Michael Poghosian who has starred in most of Armenia’s Oscar submissions so far, so "Lorik" looks like a good bet. In this film, he plays an aging actor.  Earthquake drama “Spitak” won Best Director at the Moscow Film Festival, but the Russian/Armenian co-production situation looks too much like earthquake drama “Earthquake” which was disqualified by AMPAS for being too Russian. Possible dark horse: documentary short “With the Wind” won Best Doc at the national Film Festival in July (the Golden Apricots) and selecting this debut by a young 24-year old would show support for the nation’s youth....a high priority of the government after this spring's peaceful revolution. 

3.  AZERBAIJAN-“Return” Azerbaijan has slim pickings this year and I’m unsure of what they could possibly send. For now, I’ll put down “Return” (also known as “Returning in the Future” or “Dönüş”), a patriotic film about a medic soldier serving during the Nagorno-Karabakh war.  That seems more likely than “Devil” (aka “Khannas”), a new horror-thriller that earned Azerbaijan its only major film festival bookings this year, in Iran and Kazakhstan. 

4.  BELARUS- “Crystal Swan” Welcome back Belarus! For years, Belarus has been the only nation in Europe without an Oscar committee (some countries e.g. Azerbaijan and Moldova only submit infrequently, but they do have an active selection committee). So it was a major surprise when the reclusive Eastern Euro republic became the first country to announce their official Oscar pick of 2018. Belarus- which last entered the race in 1996- selected “Crystal Swan”, a surprisingly youthful (and slightly subversive) comedy about a young woman trying to engage in visa fraud to realize her dream of becoming a club DJ in the USA. The trailer looks low-budget but charming, and the film just won the Grand Prize at the Odessa Film Festival. I plan to see it this month. 

5.  BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Never Leave Me” Bosnia usually makes the “obvious choice” and this year that is Aida Begic’s children-in-peril drama “Never Leave Me”. Begic has been chosen twice before and Oscar loves war and cute kids. “Never Leave Me” was the only Bosnian-directed film in competition at Sarajevo (in the “In Focus” Section) and its story of three Syrian refugee boys is guaranteed to pull at the heartstrings. It’s in Arabic and Turkish but the main crew is Bosnian so it’s eligible.

6.  BULGARIA- “3/4”  Once the region’s cinematic laggard, Bulgaria has quietly been gaining a reputation for quality arthouse cinema. Last year’s “Glory” deserved an Oscar nomination and Bulgarian entries are generally much better than the dreary films from the Romanian New Wave next door. This year, the Bulgarians have several films to choose from. The most acclaimed “Bulgarian” film of the year- “Aga”- is actually not very Bulgarian at all. “Aga” competed in the Main Competition at Berlinale for Bulgaria, but it was filmed in Russia in the Yakut language by a Bulgarian director. It’s about the dying traditions of a Yakut family in a remote region of Siberia. It would be the obvious choice, but some countries prefer to select a film that showcases the culture of the country it is representing. In that case, Bulgaria could choose “3/4”, a quiet family drama about a young female pianist and her quirky family, or “Omnipresent”, a drama-thriller about a paranoid young man who becomes obsessed with spying on his friends and family. Bulgaria has two major film festivals- the Sofia Film Festival (where “¾” dominated) and the Golden Rose Festival (where “Omnipresent” was more popular). They also have two dark horses: “Heights”, a crowd-pleasing local hit and historical epic set in the 1870s when Bulgaria was fighting for independence from the Ottoman Empire and “Directions”, about a late-night taxi driver and directed by Bulgaria’s only Oscar-shortlisted director Stephan Komandarev. My prediction: “3/4” will pip the better-reviewed “Aga” due to nationality, with Komandarev’s “Directions” in third. 

7.  CROATIA- “Mali” I’m pretty sure that Croatia will select “Mali”, which won both Best Picture awards at the Pula Film Festival this year (Film Critics and Jury). Interestingly enough it came in 9^th out of 12 film in the Audience Award competition, so that doesn't bode well for its chances. “Mali” is a grim family drama about a drug dealer trying to retain custody of his young son, and it's directed by Antonio Nuic (“Donkey”), a respected young director who was selected to represent the country in 2009. “Mali” doesn't have a domestic release date yet, potentially opening the door to three others- “All Alone” (another custody drama), “Comic Sans” (winner of Best Director, two acting awards, two tech awards and the Audience Award in Pula) and “Eighth Commissioner” (one acting and four tech awards). Rural comedy “Comic Sans” would definitely be the hometown favorite (it scored 4.92 out of 5 at Pula) but I don’t think Croatia would choose a movie that depends so much on dialect and local flavor. I have sentimental dramedy “Eighth Commissioner”, a box-office success based on a popular novel, ranked second. 

8.   CZECH REPUBLIC- “Bear With Us” The Czech Republic deserved a shortlist spot last year for the charming "Ice Mother” (maybe if the film hadn’t ended quite so suddenly?). This year has been weak for Czech cinema. There are four or five potential contenders, but none are likely to be nominated. I think the two top possibilities are road movie “Winter Flies” and the upcoming police procedural “Miss Hanoi”, which will both be released in the next 30 days. “Winter Flies” (directed by Slovenia’s Olmo Omerzu) is a road movie about two teens in a stolen car, and it won Best Director at Karlovy Vary. “Miss Hanoi” focuses on a murder within the Czech Republic’s minority Vietnamese community, which is being investigated by two Czech police partners, including the first Vietnamese-Czech woman on the force. Although “Miss Hanoi” hasn’t screened yet, I’m predicting it as the surprise Czech nominee, with “Winter Flies” in second place. Rounding out the Top Five (in order): family comedy “Bear With Us”, coming-of-age drama “Short Cut” and horror-thriller “Domestique”. UPDATE:  Now that "Miss Hanoi" has opened to little fanfare or strong feelings one way or the other, I'm switching my prediction to family comedy "Bear With Us". 

9.  ESTONIA- “Little Comrade” Estonian cinema got an extra dollop of funding due to this year’s centennial of independence. It’s difficult to see the Estonians choosing anything other than the heart-warming drama of “Little Comrade”, a local box-office smash about a little girl growing up in Communist Estonia, after her nationalist mother is deported to a labor camp. Confused by her mother’s sudden departure, she tries to be as good as she can be so that her mother will return to her. The only other possibility I could see is the Georgian-language “Confession” (see below). Georgian director Zaza Urushadze got Estonia their first-ever Oscar nominee for “Tangerines” but “Confession” has far less Estonian input, so I expect it will compete for Georgia. In a less competitive year, “The Manslayer. The Virgin. The Shadow”- featuring one lead actress playing three roles in three time periods- would also have a chance. 

10.   GEORGIA- “Dede” It’s a crowded race since two of last year’s top contenders (“Khibula”, which I predicted last year, plus “Dede”) got released domestically in Georgia this year. They join Georgia’s two festival films of 2018 (“Namme” from Tokyo and “Horizonti” from Berlin/Sarajevo) plus Oscar nominee Zaza Urushadze’s latest film, “Confession”. All of these films are said to be "good" and all make use of Georgia’s exotically beautiful countryside. None are universally loved. Variety called “Khibula” “illuminating but arduous” and “Confession” “a problematic follow-up” to the Oscar-nominated "Tangerines". "Khibula" is the latest from Giorgi Ovashvili (shortlisted for “Corn Island”). My prediction is that Georgia selects ethnographic love triangle “Dede” with “Confession”- about a priest tempted by a beautiful village girl who resembles Marilyn Monroe- in a very close second place. After all, “Father Amaro” had the same plot and middling reviews didn’t stop them from earning Mexico an Oscar nomination. “Khibula” may prove too political while “Namme” has no buzz. Georgia has chosen an obscure last-minute release three of the past four years so we could also see something completely new. 

11.  HUNGARY- “Sunset” Few countries have an easier decision than Hungary this year. László Nemes won an Oscar, a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and three awards at Cannes for his feature debut “Son of Saul” (which I still haven’t seen….) in 2016. His follow-up, “Sunset”, is another historical drama, this time set in the lead-up to WWI. It has booked a prime competition slot in Venice, initial photographs and clips look beautifully filmed, and the producers have arranged for it to debut in Hungarian cinemas a few days before the Oscar deadline. I can’t imagine Hungary choosing anything else….If the film were to flop (which is highly unlikely), they would presumably choose “One Day” (winner of Best Director at Cannes Director’s Fortnight), the directorial debut of the AD of Oscar nominee “Of Body and Soul”.  It’s about a harried housewife and in any other year, it would be a strong contender. 

12.    KOSOVO- “Cold November” Tiny Kosovo has two strong contenders this year. “The Marriage”- about a man clearly not in love with his fiancée- is clearly the most visible Kosovar film of the year, with regional screenings at film festivals in Tallinn (Best First Feature), Sarajevo and Transilvania. But moral dilemma drama “Cold November” is set to debut soon in San Sebastian and may have more momentum. It stars renowned Bosnian actor Emir Hadzihafizbegovic who has starred in no less than 14 Oscar submissions from former Yugoslavian countries since 2003. I think the LGBT storyline of “The Marriage” will be enough to doom them to second place. Still….an impressive year for tiny Kosovo!

13.  LATVIA- “Bille” I’m predicting Latvia sends “Bille”, a successful family drama about a little girl growing up in a poor family during the Great Depression. It should have a pretty easy time defeating thriller “Foam at the Mouth”, which won a Critics Prize at Moscow 2018 and whose director represented Latvia in 2013. Less likely: popular action-comedy “Criminal Excellence Fund” and Japanese co-production “Magic Kimono” (starring Kaori Momoi). Latvia’s biggest hit of the year- Aigars Grauba’s 13^th century epic “The Pagan King”- was filmed in English. 

14.  LITHUANIA- “Isaac” Lithuania has a surprisingly competitive race with no less than five films strongly in the running. In alphabetical order: (1)- “Breathing Into Marble” is the only Lithuanian feature to play at a major festival in 2018. This “family thriller” concerns a family raising two young boys, one natural child with epilepsy and one adopted child with disturbing tendencies; (2)- the Russian-language “A Gentle Creature” by Ukrainian director Sergei Loznitsa isn’t exactly a Lithuanian movie, but the co-production has represented Lithuania at several EU Film Festivals and competed at the Lithuanian Silver Crane Awards as a domestic feature. The film premiered at Cannes 2017 where it garnered strong reviews for its story of a woman seeking to learn why the letters to her jailed husband in prison have been returned unopened; (3)- the upcoming (and controversial) “Isaac” (Izaokas) focuses on the murder of a Jewish Lithuanian in 1941 when Lithuania was occupied by both the Soviets and the Nazis. It’s set to premiere right before the deadline in September; (4)- “Miracle” won Best Picture (over “Creature” and “Marble”) at the 2018 Lithuanian Silver Crane Awards for its tragicomedy about a hog farm, a devoted employee and a capitalist who may be a con artist; (5)- “Wonderful Losers: A Different World”, about competitive cycling, won Best Documentary at the Silver Crane Awards (Lithuania has picked documentaries three times before) and has the highest score on IMDB. Lithuania’s most hotly anticipated film of the year- “Ashes in the Snow” will be released after the deadline on October 12 and will likely be next year’s submission. This is a tough one, but I predict “Isaac”, followed by “Miracle” (which I’m personally hoping for) and “Wonderful Losers” in third. 

15.    MACEDONIA- “Secret Ingredient” Macedonia has inexplicably refused to send a film two of the past five years, saying their films aren’t good enough, losing an opportunity for national filmmakers to get their films seen in America. This year, I think they'll be back....They have two critically-acclaimed dark comedies eligible, namely “Secret Ingredient” a marijuana-laced black comedy, and “Year of the Monkey”, starring a man and a chimpanzee.  Despite sounding silly, both films have received warm reviews from critics and Macedonia has selected comedies twice before.  “Secret Ingredient” is about a man who learns medicinal marijuana can cure his cancer-stricken father while “Year of the Monkey” (which represented domestic cinema at the 2018 Skopje Film Festival) features modern Macedonian life through the eyes of a zookeeper and his pet monkey. I give the edge to “Ingredient” which has slightly better reviews. Macedonia sometimes tries to announce their Oscar selection to publicize a movie released at the very last moment; if they decide to do that again, “The Mocking of Christ” is a potential nominee. 

16.  MOLDOVA-“The Last Day Before June” Moldova may be Europe’s least-visited nation but it’s also a very charming place (I vacationed here in 2016). They’ve sent films to the Oscars twice and I expect this year they’ll send “The Last Day Before June”. A rare Moldovan feature, it got Moldova’s first-ever nomination at Russia’s Nika Awards (for Best CIS Film) and also screened in the CIS Section at the Golden Apricot Film Festival in Armenia. It’s about an Italian man and his Moldovan wife who return to Moldova to try and take back the children she left behind with her Moldovan ex-husband.

17.  MONTENEGRO- “You Have the Night” Montenegro is the smallest nation in Eastern Europe (population: 620,000) and didn’t have any eligible films last year. This year, the small Balkan republic managed a rare festival slot at a Class-A festival, possibly for the first time in their history. Therefore, “You Have the Night”, which received support from the Ministry of Culture (which I think selects the Montenegrin Oscar candidate) is suddenly the clear frontrunner. Premiering in Venice, it’s about a woman who loses her job aboard a cruise ship. Less likely: I predicted triptych drama “Neverending Past” (aka “Između dana i noći”) last year but it still hasn’t been released; “The Books of Knige”, starring a bunch of TV comedians, was popular but looks too silly to be considered.

18.   POLAND- “Cold War” I’m predicting Poland sends “Cold War”, the sophomore film by Pawel Pawlikowski, Poland’s first Foreign Film Oscar winner (“Ida”). It also won Best Director at Cannes and is the best-reviewed Polish film of 2018. But unlike the front-runners from Hungary or Ukraine, this is by no means a sure thing. Pawlikowski has claimed that he has been blacklisted by Poland’s government. I have no idea whether Poland’s Oscar committee has government ties or whether this will matter (Authoritarian Russia has chosen films by anti-regime directors) but this will be one of Eastern Europe’s more interesting races. For the record, “Cold War” is a B&W romance set during the early days of Communism and I personally think it looks better than “Ida” which I found forgettable.  It’s a contender for a nomination if Poland chooses it. But what will Poland choose if they don’t? They’ve actually had a very good film year. There are three new films by previously submitted directors (“Pardon”, “Ether”, “Once Upon A Time in November”), two Polish films that premiered at Berlin (“Mug”) and Cannes (“Fugue”), the winner of last year’s national film awards (“Silent Night”), two baity historical dramas (“303 Squadron” and “The Butler”) plus a controversial film about priests (“Kler”). I really think “Cold War” will get this, but the main competition should be considered to be “The Butler”, a lavish period drama spanning most of the early 20^th century that (unlike many of the others) has a release date.

19.  ROMANIA- “I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians” Usually a win at Cannes, Berlin or Venice will guarantee your film a chance at Best Foreign Film but Romania’s Berlinale 2018 winner largely naked “Touch Me Not” has gotten terrible reviews and probably contains too much English to qualify, leaving Romania without a front-runner. The Romanian race should become clearer after Sarajevo, where a number of Romanian films will premiere and/or expand their reach. That should leave the door open for “I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians” which won the Grand Prize in Karlovy Vary. Director Radu Jude represented Romania with “Aferim!” a few years ago. His latest film is about Romania’s dark past as an ally of Nazi Germany in WWII. It's a politically tricky topic which may upset some Romanians, but it’s the strongest Romanian film of the year. Some years (like last year), Romania will choose a relatively little-known film (last year’s forgettable “Fixeur” beat out “Ana mon Amour” and “One Step Behind the Seraphim”). This year, the "small" contenders could be “Octav”, about an old man who returns to his village after several decades, and “Pororoca”, a slow-burn mystery-thriller about a missing child. “Love. 1. Dog” (by New Wave director Florin Serban) sounds strong but doesn’t have a release date. The quirky “One and a Half Prince” sounds more interesting but doesn’t have the support of a studio. I predict “Barbarians” gets this, with “Love. 1. Dog” and “Octav” the most likely alternatives. 

20.  RUSSIA- "Salyut-7" 

21.  SERBIA- “Offenders” Serbia is fairly confusing this year. The grand days of Yugoslav cinema are mostly gone so one would think that getting a slot at Cannes would be guaranteed to be their Oscar pick. However, "The Load", a slow road movie about a truck driver, has been savaged by critics. “Witch Hunters”, about a boy with cerebral palsy, has gotten the best reviews of any Serbian film this year but it’s primarily a children’s film and Serbia tends to like their films with grittiness and violence. Buzzy sci-fi flick “Ederlezi Rising” is in English. So, this is probably a race between two new Serbian thrillers- “Offenders”, about a professor who encourages his students to experiment with anarchy and chaos, and “Horizons”, a dysfunctional family drama. “Offenders” has more star power and a more experienced director, and it won Best Serbian Feature at the FEST International Film Festival (“Horizons” competed but didn’t win anything) so it’s my prediction. You have to pay a fee to enter the Oscar race in Serbia, so expect “The Load” to get this if “Offenders” doesn’t enter.

22.  SLOVAKIA- “The Interpreter”  Martin Sulik has made six fiction features since Slovakia gained independence in 1993 and he has been selected for the Oscars six times. This year, his “The Interpreter” is by far the best-reviewed Slovak film in a relatively weak year and it was the only Slovak feature to screen at Karlovy Vary (Slovak films are allowed to compete in the "Czech Film Section" and usually there are lots of Slovak films there). The film- about an old man who confronts the man who killed his parents during the Holocaust- is a near lock. Runner-ups: historical drama “Dubcek”, and “By A Sharp Knife”, an upcoming thriller about a community shocked when the killers of a small child are released without punishment.

23.  SLOVENIA- “Ivan” Slovenia appears to have five eligible films by previously submitted directors- Rok Biček, Janez Burger, Jan Cvitkovič, Marko Naberšnik and Sonja Prosenc. Ultimately, this will probably come down to a race between Burger (2005 and 2011) and Prosenc (2015). Burger’s “Ivan” swept the 2017 Slovenian Vesna Awards, winning eight awards including Best Fiction Feature (though it lost Best Picture to a documentary and Best Director to last year’s Slovenian nominee “The Miner”). "Ivan" is a drama about a woman torn between her love for her abusive, married boyfriend and her love for her newborn child. “History of Love”, a mostly wordless teen angst drama, was the only Slovenian film to play at a major festival in 2018 (Karlovy Vary). Disturbing documentary “The Family” (Biček, who probably got Slovenia close to a nomination for “Class Enemy”) won Best Picture at the Vesnas, is definitely a potential spoiler. My predicition: "Ivan", "Family" and "History of Love". 

24.  UKRAINE- “Volcano” Ukraine has one of the easier choices this year and they’re extremely likely to choose abdurdist comedy-drama “Volcano” which represented the country in-competition at Ukraine’s largest film festival, in Odessa, and also in the East of the West Section of Karlovy Vary. Director Roman Bondarchuk has been selected once before and “Volcano”, about a translator stranded in a strange little town, has gotten better reviews than that forgettable documentary. Ukraine often selects a three-film shortlist so the other two are likely to be rural village drama “Where the Trees Fall” (Berlinale Panorama 2018) and documentary “Delta”, which won Best Ukrainian Feature in Odessa (“Volcano” competed in a separate international section).