FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS- Asia

 And here's the last group of predictions, from the 24 countries of Asia.

Unfortunately, I'm going on vacation this weekend, so I'm going to have to leave India blank and three incomplete (China, South Korea and the Philippines). I'll try to finish when I get back, if they haven't already announced.

1.  AFGHANISTAN- “Black Kite”  Although they haven’t always met all Oscar requirements, the plucky Afghan Academy has managed to send nominees six years in a row, despite Afghanistan’s precarious security situation. This year, I expect they will send “Black Kite”, a low-budget drama made by Canada-based Tarique Qayumi that played at Toronto 2017. It follows the lives of a kite-maker and his family from the happy days of the 1960s through the war and destruction of the Taliban years and beyond. Also possible is Afghan-American Sonia Nassery Cole’s new refugee drama “I Am You”, though I don’t think that will be finished in time. Siddiq Barmak’s new film “The Postman” is in pre-production and will hopefully be selected next year.

2.  BANGLADESH- “Haldaa” Bangladesh has a half-dozen potential contenders, including new films by three of the seven living Bangladesh directors who have been picked before- “Death of a Poet”, “Haldaa” and “No Bed of Roses”. I’m predicting they send “Haldaa” about the struggles of rural fishermen faced with encroachment and environmental pollution. Unlike other Bangladeshi films which sometimes struggle with production values, the trailer looks beautiful, and it features a cast that have appeared numerous other submissions. The only handicap is that it doesn’t seem to have been made by the main film studio. Only one Bangladeshi submission since 2005 (“Television”) wasn’t made by that studio, and it had the backing of some major awards. In second-place will be “Komola Rocket” (made by Impress Telefilms), about a group of passengers from all strata of Bangladeshi society riding a steamer ship down-river. Rounding out the Top Five options: (in order) “No Bed of Roses” (Moscow, Shanghai), starring Bollywood actor Irrfan Khan, which was banned but finally approved for screening last October, “Sohagi’s Ornament” (Best Bangladeshi Film, Dhaka Film Festival), about a young boy seeking work in the capital, which is tryiung to be the first female-helmed Bangladeshi Oscar submission, and “Chitkini” (Rest in Silence), a rural drama set in the remote north of the country. Less likely: indie “Death of a Poet”, Agatha Christie reimagining “Dangling By a String” (looks like fun!) and popular Bollywood-style romance “Swopnajaal”.

3.  BHUTAN- “Honeygiver Among the Dogs” Tiny Bhutan sent one (fantastic!) film in 1999 but there was a rumor that they were reconvening an Oscar committee last year. I predicted “Honeygiver” last year, but it failed to get a domestic release until April 20^th, 2018. This film noir about a detective investigating the disappearance of a Buddhist nun has gotten great reviews and has been featured at a number of international festivals since its Busan premiere last year. As a big fan of Khynetse Norbu (“Travellers & Magicians”), I’d love to see Bhutan back. The two big winners at the National Film Awards- “Nge Tsawai Lama” and “Dhaari Nhaaba”- won’t come into play.

4.  CAMBODIA- “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” I remember when I used to struggle to find even one film that Cambodia had produced in a given year. This year, they have three strong contenders to represent the Kingdom. “Graves Without A Name” is a new documentary by Oscar nominee and Khmer Rouge survivor Rithy Panh, who directed “The Missing Picture” and co-produced “First They Killed My Father”. His latest documentary opens the Venice Film Festival and is about a teenaged boy who tries to find the graves of the family members murdered during the Khmer Rouge genocide. “In the Life of Music”, co-starring Cambodian-Canadian actress Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim”, “GLOW”), is about how a Cambodian song affects the lives of three different generations of Cambodians. It’s already lobbying to be nominated at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Last is “Loung Preah Sdech Korn”, a 15^th century royal historical drama reportedly the most expensive Cambodian production ever made, and Cambodia’s first foray into costume drama. I’m predicting “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” because of its budget and the reported support from Cambodia’s president-cum-dictator Hun Sen. However, they may not be able to get it subtitled in time, leaving the door open to Rithy Panh.

5.  CHINA- "Shadow" It's difficult to see China going with anything other than Zhang Yimou's latest epic, "Shadows", which premieres in Venice. Haven't seen any reviews so far, but it (as always) looks beautiful. 

6.  HONG KONG- “No. 1 Chung Ying Street” It’s not been a great film year for Hong Kong. Nothing has made a mark at film festivals, most major directors have skipped this year and those movies that have premiered haven’t are cookie-cutter gangster movies and romantic comedies. I have a feeling that the HK selection will either be a new movie that they release at the very last moment in one theatre, or a “cheat” by sending in a majority-China co-production. Perhaps the surprise release could be Fruit Chan’s mysterious new martial arts movie “The Invincible Dragon” which was originally supposed to premiere in August 2018, but didn’t? Not sure. If they want to send a Hong Kong movie that has actually been released, I really have no idea. Perhaps low-key 60s drama “No. 1 Chung Ying Street”, drawing parallels between anti-UK protests in the 1960s and the debate between pro-China and pro-autonomy protesters…..Or  Donnie Yen’s latest action drama “Big Brother”? Splashy fantasy film "The Thousand Faces of Dunjia"? None of these seem particularly likely and I expect Hong Kong will be selecting something nobody even knew was eligible. Let’s do “Chung Ying” as a placeholder.

7.  INDIA- TBD

8.  INDONESIA- “Sultan Agung” Indonesia has been fairly quiet this year at film festivals, although action-western “Buffalo Boys” has gotten some play at Asian-themed film festivals. But with a Singaporean director, average reviews and half its dialogue in English, that’s a non-starter.  The three most prominent films are (in alphabetical order): (1)- Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts. The Indonesian “Kill Bill”, this feminist western about a woman who defends herself against a vicious gang of men premiered at Cannes 2017 before opening in Indonesian cinemas in November. It’s original and dramatic and the highest-profile choice; but the Indonesian Academy has been skewing conservative lately….(2)- “The Seen and the Unseen. A youth drama about a Balinese girl getting over the loss of her twin brother, it played at a Berlinale side-bar this year. Said to be artsy, symbolic and culturally interesting, it’s the sophomore film of Kamila Andini, whose father and husband are both famous directors whose films have represented Indonesia at the Oscars. (3)- “Sultan Agung”, a big period drama set in 17^th century Java, when a controversial but revered Sultan ruled and fought off initial incursions by the Dutch. While reviews have not been universally positive, the production values are some of Indonesia’s best, and the director was selected for another period piece a few years ago. None of these are likely to net Indonesia its first-ever Oscar nomination, but I think the costumes and sets of “Sultan Agung” will beat out the controversial girl power of “Marlina the Murderer”. Unlikely but possible: Borneo tale “Terbang” and romantic drama “Dilan 1990”.

9.  JAPAN- “Shoplifters” Japan announced their Oscar pick early this year, choosing Hirokazu Koreeda’s Palme d’Or winner “Shoplifters” before I had a chance to make a prediction. This was surprising only because Japan never goes for the obvious choice. Despite making some of the world’s greatest films, they usually select a rather obscure and forgettable film. They ignored their past two Palme d’Or winners (“Ballad of Narayama” and “The Eel”, both by Shohei Imamura who was picked twice by Japan for more obscure efforts). In the past seven years, I’ve seen six of their nominees. They selected four “good but not great” movies I barely remember seeing (“100-Yen Love”, “The Great Passage”, “Her Love Boils Bathwater” and “Postcard”), one mediocre one (“The Light Shines Only There”) and one that was downright bad (“Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”). So, I’m excited that they chose “Shoplifters”, by one of my favorite Japanese directors. It’s what they should have chosen. Other films that got ignored in a relatively slow year: mystery-thriller “The Crimes That Bind”, anime-drama “Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms”, comedy “Oh Lucy!” (co-starring Josh Hartnett) and Naomi Kawase’s “Vision” (co-starring Juliette Binoche). 

10.  KAZAKHSTAN- “Talan” Kazakhstan has one of the more confusing races in Asia. Most people think it will be “Ayka”, because it played at the Cannes Film Festival and won Best Actress- certainly a major event for Kazakh cinema. It’s also the long-awaited sophomore film by director Sergey Dvortsevoy, who directed “Tulpan”, one of Kazakhstan’s best-loved films. However, “Ayka”, about a desperately poor Central Asian mother living in Moscow, is not the sort of super-nationalist historical drama out of the national film studio that Kazakhstan usually sends. Remember that the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons”, which did not necessarily show Kazakhstan in the best possible light, was snubbed. Indie director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- corruption drama “The Gentle Indifference of the World” (Cannes) and the surreal, weird “Night God” (Moscow) but I can’t see them selecting them for the same reasons. I actually think “Ayka” will face its strongest competition from two more traditional dramas, namely “A Call to Father”, about the life of a young boy with emotional problems, who comes from a poor dysfunctional family, and “Talan”, a historical drama about two orphan boys who encounter war and famine during Soviet times. “Talan” represented Kazakhstan in the Central Asia section of Kazakhstan’s biggest film festival, while “A Call to Father” was the Kazakh submission for the Russian Nika Awards (where it was nominated). Or they could choose something brand-new like “The River”, due to premiere in Toronto. It’s unclear. For now, I’m predicting “Talan”, because it focuses on history and because the director is a well-known actor.

11.  KOREA- "1987" Tight race and the Koreans are never predictable. May not be my final prediction, as many are also predicting "The Spy Gone North" and "Burning". 

12.  KYRGYZSTAN- “Night Accident” Kyrgyzstan has submitted some of my personal favorites over the years, and the poor, remote country has likely come very closely to an Oscar nomination on more than one occasion. This year, they have two award-winners in contention, namely “Night Accident” (Grand Prize in Tallinn Black Nights) and “Suleiman Mountain” (Winner of the East of the West in Karlovy Vary). Both films are slice-of-life dramas about life in the remote villages and highways of Kyrgyzstan. Though “Suleiman” (about a loutish husband juggling two wives) has the bigger name, I’m predicting they send the more low-key “Night Accident” (a road movie) because “Suleiman” has a Russian director. However, they’re both strong contenders. Dark horse: musical “Song of the Tree”, which played in Moscow.

13.  LAOS- “Moon City” Laos submitted a film for the first time last year and what a debut it was! Creepy, twisty horror film “Dearest Sister” was one of the most entertaining and most enjoyable films of last year’s competition. Lao-American director Mattie Do has a new movie in pre-production, but this year hasn’t yet seen a large number of new features. The Vientiane Film Festival didn’t have any new domestic features and the only eligible film I know of is superhero comedy “Moon City: The Rise of Ninja Attack”. As this is an unlikely choice for Oscar, they may skip and wait until next year. For a good article on Laos’ emergent film industry, see here.

14.  MALAYSIA- “Tomorrow” Malaysia gave no reason for not sending a film last year, despite strong notices for “You Mean the World to Me”, which was probably not sent because it’s in Chinese (spoken by 23% of Malaysia’s population) and not Malay, which receives affirmative action and special privileges in the country. However, it’s odd that they didn’t send “Adirawaku”, which was easily the best-reviewed Malay-language film of the year, either. Their National Film Awards were postponed from September to December, so there will be no precursors….If they return, I expect it will be “Tomorrow” (Pulang), a drama about a sailor who travels the world for 61 years, while his devoted wife waits for him at home, “Jibam”, about a special-needs child (similar to their last entry in 2016), or “Dukun”, a horror-thriller by the director of the previously submitted “Bunohan”. I expect “Tomorrow” has the edge.

15.  MONGOLIA- “Out of Paradise” It’s extremely rare that films from remote Mongolia films make it to international film festivals. So, when they win the Grand Prize at a Class-A Festival- even one of the smaller ones- it’s pretty much a certainty it will be their pick for their Oscars. “Out of Paradise”, about a poor couple on a desperate road trip to get medical attention for a difficult pregnancy, won the Grand Prize at Shanghai. Since Mongolia rejoined the Oscars last year after a 12-year absence, you can expect to see this film on the longlist.

16.   NEPAL- “Hari” Nepal has become a regular contributor to this category since 2013, sending three arthouse films and two very local dramas. They don’t seem to consider their Bollywood-style musicals, romances and action movies, which make up their majority of their filmmaking industry. That’s probably a good idea, but it does narrow their options from 100 to just one or two. Nepal hasn’t had any films at any international festivals this year, and they were the only country absent from the SAARC Film Festival (even tiny Maldives sent a movie) For the Oscars this year, I think the two frontrunners are “Bhor”, a social drama about the pain and suffering Nepali brides endure under the traditional “dowry” (bride price) system, and “Hari”, a quirky drama about an overly superstitious and unquestioningly religious man. These both seem like the sort of movies Nepal has sent in the past. Other choices include romance “Bobby”, sports drama “Damaru Ko Dandibiyo” or mega-hit wedding comedy “Shatru Gate”. I think “Hari” will ultimately be selected.

17.  PAKISTAN- “Cake” I spent a year living in Pakistan and this year I have seen my Pakistani friends raving about two new films that they say herald a new kind of Pakistani cinema. One of these is “Cake”, about a middle-class family (yes! Pakistan has a middle-class!) consisting of two aging parents and their adult children facing normal, everyday problems. No terrorism, no honor killings, no Bollywood-style tunes….Just a family drama. And I think this will resonate with American audiences too. The other film- “Motorcycle Girl”, is about a young woman who decides to travel around Pakistan by motorcycle. Though this is perfectly legal, it is virtually unheard of in most parts of Pakistan. This film hasn’t been as big as “Cake”, but it does show off the natural beauty of Pakistan. I think the Pakistanis will select one of these two, but they could also go with pro-military drama “Parwaaz Hay Junoon” or sexual assault drama “Verna”, but I think both of these would be too controversial for the selection committee.

18.  PHILIPPINES- "Balangiga: Howling Wilderness" It's rare that the two biggest film awards in the Philippines award Best Picture to the same movie, but they did this year. Still, I haven't researched the Philippines yet, so this is just a placeholder. 

19.  SINGAPORE- “A Land Imagined” Singapore’s biggest film of the year is “Crazy Rich Asians”. It may be an American movie, but the film (based on the bestseller book by Singaporean Kevin Kwan) is very much a love letter to Singapore, and brought back so many memories for me of the cityscapes, the food and the talented actors there. Like Mongolia (see above), it’s a huge achievement when a tiny country wins at a Class-A Festival, so it’s pretty certain they’ll select “A Land Imagined”, which won the Golden Leopard a few weeks ago in Locarno. This film noir mystery about a detective searching for missing migrant workers has not gotten very good reviews and it’s victory was a bit of a surprise. But the Golden Leopard and an overall weak year should make this an easy choice. It’s main competition is Eric Khoo’s “Ramen Teh” , a Japanese co-production, and a celebration of Singapore and Japanese cuisine. Oscar loves foodie movies, so this would arguably be a better choice. Autism drama “Wayang Kids” and raucous wedding comedy “The Big Day” are eligible but unlikely.

20.  SRI LANKA- “The Goddess” Sri Lanka produces dozens of films annually, but they have only entered the Oscar race twice, with two rather obscure and forgotten titles. This year, they re-started their dormant Film Awards where the winner was “28”, a film  that I predicted to represent Sri Lanka in 2015, but which didn’t get a domestic release until June 2017. In any case, it’s not eligible. In the unlikely event that they return, it would probably be with “The Goddess” (Vaishnavee), made by the widow of Sri Lanka’s most famous director Lester James Peries and based on a story he wrote. It’s a fantasy-drama about a puppeteer who carves a puppet in memory of the fiancée who abandoned him, which then comes to life.  Other options: romantic drama “The Day We Will” and scam-artist tale “The Undecided” joined “The Goddess” in a special Sri Lanka retrospective at the Moscow Film Festival. Other possibilities include national reconciliation drama “Her. Him. The Other”,  and “Joyful Journeys”, about an 85-year old grandfather getting to know his young grandson.

21.  TAIWAN- “Father to Son” This year is likely to be a race between glossy crime drama “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” and the new Hou Hsiao-hsien produced drama “Father to Son”. “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” won the Golden Horse Award last year and has gotten very strong notices for its story of murder, corruption and political intrigue, revolving around a widow who becomes the head of a crime empire.  “Father to Son” debuted this year in Rotterdam and is executive produced by Hou Hsiao-hsien, whose painfully languorous arthouse films have represented Taiwan three times. In the film, a dying Taiwanese man travels to Japan to find news of his long-absent father, while another Hong Kong man travels to Taiwan to search for him. With “Bold”’s political themes, “Father” is perhaps a more relatable story.  Taiwan has made some odd choices lately including last year’s LGBT well-meaning documentary “Small Talk”, which was more of a therapy session than a film. So, it’s definitely possible they’ll select the bizarre “Great Buddha”, a B+W indie black comedy that won the 2017 Taipei Film Festival, or “Love Education” (Busan) by Sylvia Chang (selected twice), a family drama set in Mainland China about the conflict between two widows who shared the same husband. LGBT dramedy “Dear Ex”, which won the Taipei Film Festival in 2018 won’t be released in time, while “Angels Wear White” may be considered too much of a Mainland Chinese film. I think "Father to Son" and "Bold" are in a virtual tie, but predict "Father" has the edge.

22.  TAJIKISTAN- “Narrow” Tajikistan has entered the race twice before, but never since 2005. Their national film festival only runs every other year so they are probably preparing any national premieres they have for this year’s edition that opens in October. If they chose to send a film, the only one I’m aware of is “Narrow”, a drama that played at the Eurasia International Film Festival in neighboring Kazakhstan. It’s about a 9-year old boy who famous social exclusion because his family has not gotten him circumsized per Islamic custom.

23.   THAILAND- “Samui Song” Thailand doesn’t have much to pick from this year and I’m kind of confused as to what they would send. However, it’s always foolish to bet against Pen-ek Ratanaruang, who has represented Thailand four times (five if you count 2006 when the Thais changed their mind after picking “Invisible Waves”). Cult thriller “Samui Song” played in Venice Days and has some high-profile Thai actors in it. I’m just not sure what else Thailand would pick. Manta Ray” premiered in Venice Horizons but surely won’t get a release at home by September 30. “Khun Pan 2” looks good but is a silly action sequel. “7 Days” sounds like a melodrama version of “Quantum Leap”. It’s “Samui Song” by default. Maybe?

24.  VIETNAM- “Song Lang” Vietnam’s most widely anticipated film of the year is “The Third Wife”, which will have its World premiere at the Toronto Film Festival on September 7. Filmed with the backing of Spike Lee’s production company, it’s a 19^th century period piece about a 14-year old girl chosen to be the third wife of a wealthy landowner. Make no mistake about her name- director Ash Mayfair is born and raised in Vietnam. Vietnamese films have often struggled to get a qualifying release so it’s highly unlikely it will be released before October 1^st. Count on it being chosen next year. Vietnam doesn’t have too many other films to choose from. I think two new nostalgic dramas- “Song Lang” and “The Tailor” will be the main films considered. “The Tailor” (Busan) won Best Picture at the Vietnamese Silver Kite Awards and has been compared to a Viet “Devil Wears Prada” for its comedy-drama story of fashion designers rejecting and then re-appreciating Vietnamese traditional dress, the ao dai. “Song Lang” is more concerned with music than fashion, focusing on a boy growing up in post-war Saigon, and obsessed with traditional cải lương Vietnamese folk music. Somehow, I think the more serious, male-oriented “Song Lang” will beat out the better-known “Tailor”. Less likely: melodrama “The Mother-in-Law”.

Possible Debuts:

25.  UZBEKISTAN- “Fortitude” Uzbekistan is the most important Asian country that has never sent a film to the Oscars. With the new President opening the country up, it’s possible they could send “Fortitude”, a drama that has been representing the country at a number of festivals in the former USSR, including Moscow, Eurasia (in Kazakhstan) and the Golden Apricots (in Armenia). It’s about a dying man seeking to make amends with his estranged son before he dies. Also possible "Passing Rain" from tiny Macau and "Mystery of Burma" from Burma (Myanmar).