And here's the last group of predictions, from the 24 countries of Asia.
Unfortunately, I'm going on vacation this weekend, so I'm going to have to leave India blank and three incomplete (China, South Korea and the Philippines). I'll try to finish when I get back, if they haven't already announced.
1. 
AFGHANISTAN-
“Black Kite” Although they haven’t
always met all Oscar requirements, the plucky Afghan Academy has managed to
send nominees six years in a row, despite Afghanistan’s precarious security
situation. This year, I expect they will send “Black Kite”, a low-budget drama
made by Canada-based Tarique Qayumi that played at Toronto 2017. It follows the
lives of a kite-maker and his family from the happy days of the 1960s through
the war and destruction of the Taliban years and beyond. Also possible is
Afghan-American Sonia Nassery Cole’s new refugee drama “I Am You”, though I
don’t think that will be finished in time. Siddiq Barmak’s new film “The
Postman” is in pre-production
and will hopefully be selected next year.
2. 
BANGLADESH-
“Haldaa” Bangladesh has a half-dozen potential contenders, including new
films by three of the seven living Bangladesh directors who have been picked
before- “Death of a Poet”, “Haldaa” and “No Bed of Roses”. I’m predicting they
send “Haldaa” about the struggles of rural fishermen faced with encroachment
and environmental pollution. Unlike other Bangladeshi films which sometimes
struggle with production values, the trailer looks beautiful, and it features a
cast that have appeared numerous other submissions. The only handicap is that
it doesn’t seem to have been made by the main film studio. Only one Bangladeshi
submission since 2005 (“Television”) wasn’t made by that studio, and it had the
backing of some major awards. In second-place will be “Komola Rocket” (made by
Impress Telefilms), about a group of passengers from all strata of Bangladeshi
society riding a steamer ship down-river. Rounding out the Top Five options: (in
order) “No Bed of Roses” (Moscow, Shanghai), starring Bollywood actor Irrfan
Khan, which was banned but finally approved for screening last October, “Sohagi’s
Ornament” (Best Bangladeshi Film, Dhaka Film Festival), about a young boy
seeking work in the capital, which is tryiung to be the first female-helmed
Bangladeshi Oscar submission, and “Chitkini” (Rest in Silence), a rural drama
set in the remote north of the country. Less likely: indie “Death of a Poet”, Agatha
Christie reimagining “Dangling By a String” (looks like fun!) and popular
Bollywood-style romance “Swopnajaal”.
3. 
BHUTAN-
“Honeygiver Among the Dogs” Tiny Bhutan sent one (fantastic!) film in 1999
but there was a rumor that they were reconvening an Oscar committee last year. I
predicted “Honeygiver” last year, but it failed to get a domestic release until
April 20th, 2018. This film noir about a detective investigating the
disappearance of a Buddhist nun has gotten great reviews and has been featured
at a number of international festivals since its Busan premiere last year. As a
big fan of Khynetse Norbu (“Travellers & Magicians”), I’d love to see
Bhutan back. The two big winners at the National Film Awards- “Nge Tsawai Lama”
and “Dhaari Nhaaba”- won’t come into play.
4. 
CAMBODIA-
“Loung Preah Sdech Korn” I remember when I used to struggle to find
even one film that Cambodia had produced in a given year. This year, they have
three strong contenders to represent the Kingdom. “Graves Without A Name” is a
new documentary by Oscar nominee and Khmer Rouge survivor Rithy Panh, who
directed “The Missing Picture” and co-produced “First They Killed My Father”.
His latest documentary opens the Venice Film Festival and is about a teenaged
boy who tries to find the graves of the family members murdered during the
Khmer Rouge genocide. “In the Life of Music”, co-starring Cambodian-Canadian
actress Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim”, “GLOW”), is about how a Cambodian song
affects the lives of three different generations of Cambodians. It’s already
lobbying to be nominated at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Last is “Loung
Preah Sdech Korn”, a 15th century royal historical drama reportedly
the most expensive Cambodian production ever made, and Cambodia’s first foray
into costume drama. I’m predicting “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” because of its
budget and the reported support from Cambodia’s president-cum-dictator Hun Sen.
However, they may not be able to get it subtitled in time, leaving the door
open to Rithy Panh.
5. 
CHINA- "Shadow" It's difficult to see China going with anything other than Zhang Yimou's latest epic, "Shadows", which premieres in Venice. Haven't seen any reviews so far, but it (as always) looks beautiful.
6. 
HONG KONG- “No. 1
Chung Ying Street” It’s not been a great film year for Hong Kong. Nothing
has made a mark at film festivals, most major directors have skipped this year
and those movies that have premiered haven’t are cookie-cutter gangster movies
and romantic comedies. I have a feeling that the HK selection will either be a
new movie that they release at the very last moment in one theatre, or a “cheat”
by sending in a majority-China co-production. Perhaps the surprise release could
be Fruit Chan’s mysterious new martial arts movie “The Invincible Dragon” which
was originally supposed to premiere in August 2018, but didn’t? Not sure. If
they want to send a Hong Kong movie that has actually been released, I really
have no idea. Perhaps low-key 60s drama “No. 1 Chung Ying Street”, drawing
parallels between anti-UK protests in the 1960s and the debate between
pro-China and pro-autonomy protesters…..Or Donnie Yen’s latest action drama “Big Brother”? Splashy fantasy film "The Thousand Faces of Dunjia"? None of these seem particularly likely and I expect Hong Kong will be selecting
something nobody even knew was eligible. Let’s do “Chung Ying” as a
placeholder.
8. 
INDONESIA- “Sultan
Agung” Indonesia has been fairly quiet this year at film festivals,
although action-western “Buffalo Boys” has gotten some play at Asian-themed
film festivals. But with a Singaporean director, average reviews and half its
dialogue in English, that’s a non-starter. The three most prominent films are (in
alphabetical order): (1)- Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts. The Indonesian “Kill
Bill”, this feminist western about a woman who defends herself against a
vicious gang of men premiered at Cannes 2017 before opening in Indonesian
cinemas in November. It’s original and dramatic and the highest-profile choice;
but the Indonesian Academy has been skewing conservative lately….(2)- “The Seen
and the Unseen. A youth drama about a Balinese girl getting over the loss of
her twin brother, it played at a Berlinale side-bar this year. Said to be
artsy, symbolic and culturally interesting, it’s the sophomore film of Kamila
Andini, whose father and husband are both famous directors whose films have
represented Indonesia at the Oscars. (3)- “Sultan Agung”, a big period drama
set in 17th century Java, when a controversial but revered Sultan
ruled and fought off initial incursions by the Dutch. While reviews have not
been universally positive, the production values are some of Indonesia’s best,
and the director was selected for another period piece a few years ago. None of
these are likely to net Indonesia its first-ever Oscar nomination, but I think
the costumes and sets of “Sultan Agung” will beat out the controversial girl
power of “Marlina the Murderer”. Unlikely but possible: Borneo tale “Terbang”
and romantic drama “Dilan 1990”.
9. 
JAPAN-
“Shoplifters” Japan announced their Oscar pick early this year, choosing
Hirokazu Koreeda’s Palme d’Or winner “Shoplifters” before I had a chance to
make a prediction. This was surprising only because Japan never goes for the
obvious choice. Despite making some of the world’s greatest films, they usually
select a rather obscure and forgettable film. They ignored their past two Palme
d’Or winners (“Ballad of Narayama” and “The Eel”, both by Shohei Imamura who
was picked twice by Japan for more obscure efforts). In the past seven years,
I’ve seen six of their nominees. They selected four “good but not great” movies
I barely remember seeing (“100-Yen Love”, “The Great Passage”, “Her Love Boils
Bathwater” and “Postcard”), one mediocre one (“The Light Shines Only There”)
and one that was downright bad (“Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”). So, I’m
excited that they chose “Shoplifters”, by one of my favorite Japanese
directors. It’s what they should have chosen. Other films that got ignored in a
relatively slow year: mystery-thriller “The Crimes That Bind”, anime-drama
“Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms”, comedy “Oh Lucy!” (co-starring Josh
Hartnett) and Naomi Kawase’s “Vision” (co-starring Juliette Binoche).
10. 
KAZAKHSTAN-
“Talan” Kazakhstan has one of the more confusing races in Asia. Most
people think it will be “Ayka”, because it played at the Cannes Film Festival
and won Best Actress- certainly a major event for Kazakh cinema. It’s also the
long-awaited sophomore film by director Sergey Dvortsevoy, who directed
“Tulpan”, one of Kazakhstan’s best-loved films. However, “Ayka”, about a
desperately poor Central Asian mother living in Moscow, is not the sort of
super-nationalist historical drama out of the national film studio that
Kazakhstan usually sends. Remember that the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons”, which
did not necessarily show Kazakhstan in the best possible light, was snubbed.
Indie director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- corruption drama
“The Gentle Indifference of the World” (Cannes) and the surreal, weird “Night
God” (Moscow) but I can’t see them selecting them for the same reasons. I
actually think “Ayka” will face its strongest competition from two more
traditional dramas, namely “A Call to Father”, about the life of a young boy
with emotional problems, who comes from a poor dysfunctional family, and
“Talan”, a historical drama about two orphan boys who encounter war and famine
during Soviet times. “Talan” represented Kazakhstan in the Central Asia section
of Kazakhstan’s biggest film festival, while “A Call to Father” was the Kazakh
submission for the Russian Nika Awards (where it was nominated). Or they could
choose something brand-new like “The River”, due to premiere in Toronto. It’s
unclear. For now, I’m predicting “Talan”, because it focuses on history and
because the director is a well-known actor.
11.
KOREA- "1987" Tight race and the Koreans are never predictable. May not be my final prediction, as many are also predicting "The Spy Gone North" and "Burning".
12. 
KYRGYZSTAN-
“Night Accident” Kyrgyzstan has submitted some of my personal
favorites over the years, and the poor, remote country has likely come very
closely to an Oscar nomination on more than one occasion. This year, they have
two award-winners in contention, namely “Night Accident” (Grand Prize in
Tallinn Black Nights) and “Suleiman Mountain” (Winner of the East of the West
in Karlovy Vary). Both films are slice-of-life dramas about life in the remote
villages and highways of Kyrgyzstan. Though “Suleiman” (about a loutish husband
juggling two wives) has the bigger name, I’m predicting they send the more
low-key “Night Accident” (a road movie) because “Suleiman” has a Russian
director. However, they’re both strong contenders. Dark horse: musical “Song of
the Tree”, which played in Moscow.
13. 
LAOS-
“Moon City” Laos submitted a film for the first time last year and what a
debut it was! Creepy, twisty horror film “Dearest Sister” was one of the most
entertaining and most enjoyable films of last year’s competition. Lao-American
director Mattie Do has a new movie in pre-production, but this year hasn’t yet
seen a large number of new features. The Vientiane Film Festival didn’t have
any new domestic features and the only eligible film I know of is superhero
comedy “Moon City: The Rise of Ninja Attack”. As this is an unlikely choice for
Oscar, they may skip and wait until next year. For a good article on Laos’
emergent film industry, see here.
14.
MALAYSIA-
“Tomorrow” Malaysia gave no reason for not sending a film last year, despite
strong notices for “You Mean the World to Me”, which was probably not sent
because it’s in Chinese (spoken by 23% of Malaysia’s population) and not Malay,
which receives affirmative action and special privileges in the country.
However, it’s odd that they didn’t send “Adirawaku”, which was easily the
best-reviewed Malay-language film of the year, either. Their National Film
Awards were postponed from September to December, so there will be no
precursors….If they return, I expect it will be “Tomorrow” (Pulang), a drama
about a sailor who travels the world for 61 years, while his devoted wife waits
for him at home, “Jibam”, about a special-needs child (similar to their last
entry in 2016), or “Dukun”, a horror-thriller by the director of the previously
submitted “Bunohan”. I expect “Tomorrow” has the edge.
15. 
MONGOLIA-
“Out of Paradise” It’s extremely rare that films from remote
Mongolia films make it to international film festivals. So, when they win the
Grand Prize at a Class-A Festival- even one of the smaller ones- it’s pretty
much a certainty it will be their pick for their Oscars. “Out of Paradise”,
about a poor couple on a desperate road trip to get medical attention for a
difficult pregnancy, won the Grand Prize at Shanghai. Since Mongolia rejoined
the Oscars last year after a 12-year absence, you can expect to see this film
on the longlist.
16. 
NEPAL- “Hari” Nepal
has become a regular contributor to this category since 2013, sending three
arthouse films and two very local dramas. They don’t seem to consider their
Bollywood-style musicals, romances and action movies, which make up their
majority of their filmmaking industry. That’s probably a good idea, but it does
narrow their options from 100 to just one or two. Nepal hasn’t had any films at
any international festivals this year, and they were the only country absent
from the SAARC Film Festival (even tiny Maldives sent a movie) For the Oscars
this year, I think the two frontrunners are “Bhor”, a social drama about the
pain and suffering Nepali brides endure under the traditional “dowry” (bride
price) system, and “Hari”, a quirky drama about an overly superstitious and
unquestioningly religious man. These both seem like the sort of movies Nepal
has sent in the past. Other choices include romance “Bobby”, sports drama
“Damaru Ko Dandibiyo” or mega-hit wedding comedy “Shatru Gate”. I think “Hari”
will ultimately be selected.
17. 
PAKISTAN- “Cake” I
spent a year living in Pakistan and this year I have seen my Pakistani friends
raving about two new films that they say herald a new kind of Pakistani cinema.
One of these is “Cake”, about a middle-class family (yes! Pakistan has a
middle-class!) consisting of two aging parents and their adult children facing
normal, everyday problems. No terrorism, no honor killings, no Bollywood-style
tunes….Just a family drama. And I think this will resonate with American
audiences too. The other film- “Motorcycle Girl”, is about a young woman who
decides to travel around Pakistan by motorcycle. Though this is perfectly
legal, it is virtually unheard of in most parts of Pakistan. This film hasn’t
been as big as “Cake”, but it does show off the natural beauty of Pakistan. I
think the Pakistanis will select one of these two, but they could also go with
pro-military drama “Parwaaz Hay Junoon” or sexual assault drama “Verna”, but I
think both of these would be too controversial for the selection committee.
18. 
PHILIPPINES- "Balangiga: Howling Wilderness" It's rare that the two biggest film awards in the Philippines award Best Picture to the same movie, but they did this year. Still, I haven't researched the Philippines yet, so this is just a placeholder.
19. 
SINGAPORE-
“A Land Imagined” Singapore’s biggest film of the year is “Crazy
Rich Asians”. It may be an American movie, but the film (based on the
bestseller book by Singaporean Kevin Kwan) is very much a love letter to
Singapore, and brought back so many memories for me of the cityscapes, the food
and the talented actors there. Like Mongolia (see above), it’s a huge
achievement when a tiny country wins at a Class-A Festival, so it’s pretty
certain they’ll select “A Land Imagined”, which won the Golden Leopard a few
weeks ago in Locarno. This film noir mystery about a detective searching for
missing migrant workers has not gotten very good reviews and it’s victory was a
bit of a surprise. But the Golden Leopard and an overall weak year should make
this an easy choice. It’s main competition is Eric Khoo’s “Ramen Teh” , a
Japanese co-production, and a celebration of Singapore and Japanese cuisine.
Oscar loves foodie movies, so this would arguably be a better choice. Autism
drama “Wayang Kids” and raucous wedding comedy “The Big Day” are eligible but
unlikely.
20. 
SRI LANKA-
“The Goddess” Sri Lanka produces dozens of films annually, but they have only
entered the Oscar race twice, with two rather obscure and forgotten titles.
This year, they re-started their dormant Film Awards where the winner was “28”,
a film that I predicted to represent Sri
Lanka in 2015, but which didn’t get a domestic release until June 2017. In any
case, it’s not eligible. In the unlikely event that they return, it would
probably be with “The Goddess” (Vaishnavee), made by the widow of Sri Lanka’s
most famous director Lester James Peries and based on a story he wrote. It’s a
fantasy-drama about a puppeteer who carves a puppet in memory of the fiancée
who abandoned him, which then comes to life.
Other options: romantic drama “The Day We Will” and scam-artist tale
“The Undecided” joined “The Goddess” in a special Sri Lanka retrospective at
the Moscow Film Festival. Other possibilities include national reconciliation
drama “Her. Him. The Other”, and “Joyful
Journeys”, about an 85-year old grandfather getting to know his young grandson.
21. 
TAIWAN- “Father to
Son” This year is likely to be a race between glossy crime drama “The Bold,
Corrupt and the Beautiful” and the new Hou Hsiao-hsien produced drama “Father
to Son”. “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” won the Golden Horse Award last
year and has gotten very strong notices for its story of murder, corruption and
political intrigue, revolving around a widow who becomes the head of a crime
empire. “Father to Son” debuted this
year in Rotterdam and is executive produced by Hou Hsiao-hsien, whose painfully
languorous arthouse films have represented Taiwan three times. In the film, a
dying Taiwanese man travels to Japan to find news of his long-absent father,
while another Hong Kong man travels to Taiwan to search for him. With “Bold”’s
political themes, “Father” is perhaps a more relatable story. Taiwan has made some odd choices lately
including last year’s LGBT well-meaning documentary “Small Talk”, which was
more of a therapy session than a film. So, it’s definitely possible they’ll
select the bizarre “Great Buddha”, a B+W indie black comedy that won the 2017 Taipei
Film Festival, or “Love Education” (Busan) by Sylvia Chang (selected twice), a
family drama set in Mainland China about the conflict between two widows who
shared the same husband. LGBT dramedy “Dear Ex”, which won the Taipei Film
Festival in 2018 won’t be released in time, while “Angels Wear White” may be considered
too much of a Mainland Chinese film. I think "Father to Son" and "Bold" are in a virtual tie, but predict "Father" has the edge.
22. 
TAJIKISTAN-
“Narrow” Tajikistan has entered the race twice before, but never since
2005. Their national film festival only runs every other year so they are
probably preparing any national premieres they have for this year’s edition
that opens in October. If they chose to send a film, the only one I’m aware of
is “Narrow”, a drama that played at the Eurasia International Film Festival in
neighboring Kazakhstan. It’s about a 9-year old boy who famous social exclusion
because his family has not gotten him circumsized per Islamic custom.
23. 
THAILAND- “Samui Song”
Thailand doesn’t have much to pick from this year and I’m kind of confused
as to what they would send. However, it’s always foolish to bet against Pen-ek
Ratanaruang, who has represented Thailand four times (five if you count 2006
when the Thais changed their mind after picking “Invisible Waves”). Cult
thriller “Samui Song” played in Venice Days and has some high-profile Thai
actors in it. I’m just not sure what else Thailand would pick. Manta Ray”
premiered in Venice Horizons but surely won’t get a release at home by
September 30. “Khun Pan 2” looks good but is a silly action sequel. “7 Days”
sounds like a melodrama version of “Quantum Leap”. It’s “Samui Song” by
default. Maybe?
24. 
VIETNAM- “Song Lang” Vietnam’s
most widely anticipated film of the year is “The Third Wife”, which will have its World premiere
at the Toronto Film Festival on September 7. Filmed with the backing of Spike
Lee’s production company, it’s a 19th century period piece
about a 14-year old girl chosen to be the third wife of a wealthy landowner.
Make no mistake about her name- director Ash Mayfair is born and raised in
Vietnam. Vietnamese films have often struggled to get a qualifying release so
it’s highly unlikely it will be released before October 1st. Count
on it being chosen next year. Vietnam doesn’t have too many other films to
choose from. I think two new nostalgic dramas- “Song Lang” and “The Tailor”
will be the main films considered. “The Tailor” (Busan) won Best Picture at the
Vietnamese Silver Kite Awards and has been compared to a Viet “Devil Wears
Prada” for its comedy-drama story of fashion designers rejecting and then
re-appreciating Vietnamese traditional dress, the ao dai. “Song
Lang” is more concerned with music than fashion, focusing on a boy growing up
in post-war Saigon, and obsessed with traditional cải lương Vietnamese folk
music. Somehow, I think the more serious, male-oriented “Song Lang” will beat
out the better-known “Tailor”. Less likely: melodrama “The Mother-in-Law”.
25. 
UZBEKISTAN-
“Fortitude” Uzbekistan is the most important Asian country that has never
sent a film to the Oscars. With the new President opening the country up, it’s
possible they could send “Fortitude”, a drama that has been representing the
country at a number of festivals in the former USSR, including Moscow, Eurasia
(in Kazakhstan) and the Golden Apricots (in Armenia). It’s about a dying man
seeking to make amends with his estranged son before he dies. Also possible "Passing Rain" from tiny Macau and "Mystery of Burma" from Burma (Myanmar).
Unfortunately, I'm going on vacation this weekend, so I'm going to have to leave India blank and three incomplete (China, South Korea and the Philippines). I'll try to finish when I get back, if they haven't already announced.
AFGHANISTAN-
“Black Kite” Although they haven’t
always met all Oscar requirements, the plucky Afghan Academy has managed to
send nominees six years in a row, despite Afghanistan’s precarious security
situation. This year, I expect they will send “Black Kite”, a low-budget drama
made by Canada-based Tarique Qayumi that played at Toronto 2017. It follows the
lives of a kite-maker and his family from the happy days of the 1960s through
the war and destruction of the Taliban years and beyond. Also possible is
Afghan-American Sonia Nassery Cole’s new refugee drama “I Am You”, though I
don’t think that will be finished in time. Siddiq Barmak’s new film “The
Postman” is in pre-production
and will hopefully be selected next year.
BANGLADESH-
“Haldaa” Bangladesh has a half-dozen potential contenders, including new
films by three of the seven living Bangladesh directors who have been picked
before- “Death of a Poet”, “Haldaa” and “No Bed of Roses”. I’m predicting they
send “Haldaa” about the struggles of rural fishermen faced with encroachment
and environmental pollution. Unlike other Bangladeshi films which sometimes
struggle with production values, the trailer looks beautiful, and it features a
cast that have appeared numerous other submissions. The only handicap is that
it doesn’t seem to have been made by the main film studio. Only one Bangladeshi
submission since 2005 (“Television”) wasn’t made by that studio, and it had the
backing of some major awards. In second-place will be “Komola Rocket” (made by
Impress Telefilms), about a group of passengers from all strata of Bangladeshi
society riding a steamer ship down-river. Rounding out the Top Five options: (in
order) “No Bed of Roses” (Moscow, Shanghai), starring Bollywood actor Irrfan
Khan, which was banned but finally approved for screening last October, “Sohagi’s
Ornament” (Best Bangladeshi Film, Dhaka Film Festival), about a young boy
seeking work in the capital, which is tryiung to be the first female-helmed
Bangladeshi Oscar submission, and “Chitkini” (Rest in Silence), a rural drama
set in the remote north of the country. Less likely: indie “Death of a Poet”, Agatha
Christie reimagining “Dangling By a String” (looks like fun!) and popular
Bollywood-style romance “Swopnajaal”.
BHUTAN-
“Honeygiver Among the Dogs” Tiny Bhutan sent one (fantastic!) film in 1999
but there was a rumor that they were reconvening an Oscar committee last year. I
predicted “Honeygiver” last year, but it failed to get a domestic release until
April 20th, 2018. This film noir about a detective investigating the
disappearance of a Buddhist nun has gotten great reviews and has been featured
at a number of international festivals since its Busan premiere last year. As a
big fan of Khynetse Norbu (“Travellers & Magicians”), I’d love to see
Bhutan back. The two big winners at the National Film Awards- “Nge Tsawai Lama”
and “Dhaari Nhaaba”- won’t come into play.
CAMBODIA-
“Loung Preah Sdech Korn” I remember when I used to struggle to find
even one film that Cambodia had produced in a given year. This year, they have
three strong contenders to represent the Kingdom. “Graves Without A Name” is a
new documentary by Oscar nominee and Khmer Rouge survivor Rithy Panh, who
directed “The Missing Picture” and co-produced “First They Killed My Father”.
His latest documentary opens the Venice Film Festival and is about a teenaged
boy who tries to find the graves of the family members murdered during the
Khmer Rouge genocide. “In the Life of Music”, co-starring Cambodian-Canadian
actress Ellen Wong (“Scott Pilgrim”, “GLOW”), is about how a Cambodian song
affects the lives of three different generations of Cambodians. It’s already
lobbying to be nominated at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Last is “Loung
Preah Sdech Korn”, a 15th century royal historical drama reportedly
the most expensive Cambodian production ever made, and Cambodia’s first foray
into costume drama. I’m predicting “Loung Preah Sdech Korn” because of its
budget and the reported support from Cambodia’s president-cum-dictator Hun Sen.
However, they may not be able to get it subtitled in time, leaving the door
open to Rithy Panh.
CHINA- "Shadow" It's difficult to see China going with anything other than Zhang Yimou's latest epic, "Shadows", which premieres in Venice. Haven't seen any reviews so far, but it (as always) looks beautiful. 
HONG KONG- “No. 1
Chung Ying Street” It’s not been a great film year for Hong Kong. Nothing
has made a mark at film festivals, most major directors have skipped this year
and those movies that have premiered haven’t are cookie-cutter gangster movies
and romantic comedies. I have a feeling that the HK selection will either be a
new movie that they release at the very last moment in one theatre, or a “cheat”
by sending in a majority-China co-production. Perhaps the surprise release could
be Fruit Chan’s mysterious new martial arts movie “The Invincible Dragon” which
was originally supposed to premiere in August 2018, but didn’t? Not sure. If
they want to send a Hong Kong movie that has actually been released, I really
have no idea. Perhaps low-key 60s drama “No. 1 Chung Ying Street”, drawing
parallels between anti-UK protests in the 1960s and the debate between
pro-China and pro-autonomy protesters…..Or Donnie Yen’s latest action drama “Big Brother”? Splashy fantasy film "The Thousand Faces of Dunjia"? None of these seem particularly likely and I expect Hong Kong will be selecting
something nobody even knew was eligible. Let’s do “Chung Ying” as a
placeholder.
7. 
INDIA- TBD
INDIA- TBD
INDONESIA- “Sultan
Agung” Indonesia has been fairly quiet this year at film festivals,
although action-western “Buffalo Boys” has gotten some play at Asian-themed
film festivals. But with a Singaporean director, average reviews and half its
dialogue in English, that’s a non-starter. The three most prominent films are (in
alphabetical order): (1)- Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts. The Indonesian “Kill
Bill”, this feminist western about a woman who defends herself against a
vicious gang of men premiered at Cannes 2017 before opening in Indonesian
cinemas in November. It’s original and dramatic and the highest-profile choice;
but the Indonesian Academy has been skewing conservative lately….(2)- “The Seen
and the Unseen. A youth drama about a Balinese girl getting over the loss of
her twin brother, it played at a Berlinale side-bar this year. Said to be
artsy, symbolic and culturally interesting, it’s the sophomore film of Kamila
Andini, whose father and husband are both famous directors whose films have
represented Indonesia at the Oscars. (3)- “Sultan Agung”, a big period drama
set in 17th century Java, when a controversial but revered Sultan
ruled and fought off initial incursions by the Dutch. While reviews have not
been universally positive, the production values are some of Indonesia’s best,
and the director was selected for another period piece a few years ago. None of
these are likely to net Indonesia its first-ever Oscar nomination, but I think
the costumes and sets of “Sultan Agung” will beat out the controversial girl
power of “Marlina the Murderer”. Unlikely but possible: Borneo tale “Terbang”
and romantic drama “Dilan 1990”.
JAPAN-
“Shoplifters” Japan announced their Oscar pick early this year, choosing
Hirokazu Koreeda’s Palme d’Or winner “Shoplifters” before I had a chance to
make a prediction. This was surprising only because Japan never goes for the
obvious choice. Despite making some of the world’s greatest films, they usually
select a rather obscure and forgettable film. They ignored their past two Palme
d’Or winners (“Ballad of Narayama” and “The Eel”, both by Shohei Imamura who
was picked twice by Japan for more obscure efforts). In the past seven years,
I’ve seen six of their nominees. They selected four “good but not great” movies
I barely remember seeing (“100-Yen Love”, “The Great Passage”, “Her Love Boils
Bathwater” and “Postcard”), one mediocre one (“The Light Shines Only There”)
and one that was downright bad (“Nagasaki: Memories of My Son”). So, I’m
excited that they chose “Shoplifters”, by one of my favorite Japanese
directors. It’s what they should have chosen. Other films that got ignored in a
relatively slow year: mystery-thriller “The Crimes That Bind”, anime-drama
“Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms”, comedy “Oh Lucy!” (co-starring Josh
Hartnett) and Naomi Kawase’s “Vision” (co-starring Juliette Binoche). 
KAZAKHSTAN-
“Talan” Kazakhstan has one of the more confusing races in Asia. Most
people think it will be “Ayka”, because it played at the Cannes Film Festival
and won Best Actress- certainly a major event for Kazakh cinema. It’s also the
long-awaited sophomore film by director Sergey Dvortsevoy, who directed
“Tulpan”, one of Kazakhstan’s best-loved films. However, “Ayka”, about a
desperately poor Central Asian mother living in Moscow, is not the sort of
super-nationalist historical drama out of the national film studio that
Kazakhstan usually sends. Remember that the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons”, which
did not necessarily show Kazakhstan in the best possible light, was snubbed.
Indie director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- corruption drama
“The Gentle Indifference of the World” (Cannes) and the surreal, weird “Night
God” (Moscow) but I can’t see them selecting them for the same reasons. I
actually think “Ayka” will face its strongest competition from two more
traditional dramas, namely “A Call to Father”, about the life of a young boy
with emotional problems, who comes from a poor dysfunctional family, and
“Talan”, a historical drama about two orphan boys who encounter war and famine
during Soviet times. “Talan” represented Kazakhstan in the Central Asia section
of Kazakhstan’s biggest film festival, while “A Call to Father” was the Kazakh
submission for the Russian Nika Awards (where it was nominated). Or they could
choose something brand-new like “The River”, due to premiere in Toronto. It’s
unclear. For now, I’m predicting “Talan”, because it focuses on history and
because the director is a well-known actor.
11.
KOREA- "1987" Tight race and the Koreans are never predictable. May not be my final prediction, as many are also predicting "The Spy Gone North" and "Burning". 
KYRGYZSTAN-
“Night Accident” Kyrgyzstan has submitted some of my personal
favorites over the years, and the poor, remote country has likely come very
closely to an Oscar nomination on more than one occasion. This year, they have
two award-winners in contention, namely “Night Accident” (Grand Prize in
Tallinn Black Nights) and “Suleiman Mountain” (Winner of the East of the West
in Karlovy Vary). Both films are slice-of-life dramas about life in the remote
villages and highways of Kyrgyzstan. Though “Suleiman” (about a loutish husband
juggling two wives) has the bigger name, I’m predicting they send the more
low-key “Night Accident” (a road movie) because “Suleiman” has a Russian
director. However, they’re both strong contenders. Dark horse: musical “Song of
the Tree”, which played in Moscow.
LAOS-
“Moon City” Laos submitted a film for the first time last year and what a
debut it was! Creepy, twisty horror film “Dearest Sister” was one of the most
entertaining and most enjoyable films of last year’s competition. Lao-American
director Mattie Do has a new movie in pre-production, but this year hasn’t yet
seen a large number of new features. The Vientiane Film Festival didn’t have
any new domestic features and the only eligible film I know of is superhero
comedy “Moon City: The Rise of Ninja Attack”. As this is an unlikely choice for
Oscar, they may skip and wait until next year. For a good article on Laos’
emergent film industry, see here.
14.
MALAYSIA-
“Tomorrow” Malaysia gave no reason for not sending a film last year, despite
strong notices for “You Mean the World to Me”, which was probably not sent
because it’s in Chinese (spoken by 23% of Malaysia’s population) and not Malay,
which receives affirmative action and special privileges in the country.
However, it’s odd that they didn’t send “Adirawaku”, which was easily the
best-reviewed Malay-language film of the year, either. Their National Film
Awards were postponed from September to December, so there will be no
precursors….If they return, I expect it will be “Tomorrow” (Pulang), a drama
about a sailor who travels the world for 61 years, while his devoted wife waits
for him at home, “Jibam”, about a special-needs child (similar to their last
entry in 2016), or “Dukun”, a horror-thriller by the director of the previously
submitted “Bunohan”. I expect “Tomorrow” has the edge.
MONGOLIA-
“Out of Paradise” It’s extremely rare that films from remote
Mongolia films make it to international film festivals. So, when they win the
Grand Prize at a Class-A Festival- even one of the smaller ones- it’s pretty
much a certainty it will be their pick for their Oscars. “Out of Paradise”,
about a poor couple on a desperate road trip to get medical attention for a
difficult pregnancy, won the Grand Prize at Shanghai. Since Mongolia rejoined
the Oscars last year after a 12-year absence, you can expect to see this film
on the longlist.
NEPAL- “Hari” Nepal
has become a regular contributor to this category since 2013, sending three
arthouse films and two very local dramas. They don’t seem to consider their
Bollywood-style musicals, romances and action movies, which make up their
majority of their filmmaking industry. That’s probably a good idea, but it does
narrow their options from 100 to just one or two. Nepal hasn’t had any films at
any international festivals this year, and they were the only country absent
from the SAARC Film Festival (even tiny Maldives sent a movie) For the Oscars
this year, I think the two frontrunners are “Bhor”, a social drama about the
pain and suffering Nepali brides endure under the traditional “dowry” (bride
price) system, and “Hari”, a quirky drama about an overly superstitious and
unquestioningly religious man. These both seem like the sort of movies Nepal
has sent in the past. Other choices include romance “Bobby”, sports drama
“Damaru Ko Dandibiyo” or mega-hit wedding comedy “Shatru Gate”. I think “Hari”
will ultimately be selected.
PAKISTAN- “Cake” I
spent a year living in Pakistan and this year I have seen my Pakistani friends
raving about two new films that they say herald a new kind of Pakistani cinema.
One of these is “Cake”, about a middle-class family (yes! Pakistan has a
middle-class!) consisting of two aging parents and their adult children facing
normal, everyday problems. No terrorism, no honor killings, no Bollywood-style
tunes….Just a family drama. And I think this will resonate with American
audiences too. The other film- “Motorcycle Girl”, is about a young woman who
decides to travel around Pakistan by motorcycle. Though this is perfectly
legal, it is virtually unheard of in most parts of Pakistan. This film hasn’t
been as big as “Cake”, but it does show off the natural beauty of Pakistan. I
think the Pakistanis will select one of these two, but they could also go with
pro-military drama “Parwaaz Hay Junoon” or sexual assault drama “Verna”, but I
think both of these would be too controversial for the selection committee.
PHILIPPINES- "Balangiga: Howling Wilderness" It's rare that the two biggest film awards in the Philippines award Best Picture to the same movie, but they did this year. Still, I haven't researched the Philippines yet, so this is just a placeholder. 
SINGAPORE-
“A Land Imagined” Singapore’s biggest film of the year is “Crazy
Rich Asians”. It may be an American movie, but the film (based on the
bestseller book by Singaporean Kevin Kwan) is very much a love letter to
Singapore, and brought back so many memories for me of the cityscapes, the food
and the talented actors there. Like Mongolia (see above), it’s a huge
achievement when a tiny country wins at a Class-A Festival, so it’s pretty
certain they’ll select “A Land Imagined”, which won the Golden Leopard a few
weeks ago in Locarno. This film noir mystery about a detective searching for
missing migrant workers has not gotten very good reviews and it’s victory was a
bit of a surprise. But the Golden Leopard and an overall weak year should make
this an easy choice. It’s main competition is Eric Khoo’s “Ramen Teh” , a
Japanese co-production, and a celebration of Singapore and Japanese cuisine.
Oscar loves foodie movies, so this would arguably be a better choice. Autism
drama “Wayang Kids” and raucous wedding comedy “The Big Day” are eligible but
unlikely.
SRI LANKA-
“The Goddess” Sri Lanka produces dozens of films annually, but they have only
entered the Oscar race twice, with two rather obscure and forgotten titles.
This year, they re-started their dormant Film Awards where the winner was “28”,
a film that I predicted to represent Sri
Lanka in 2015, but which didn’t get a domestic release until June 2017. In any
case, it’s not eligible. In the unlikely event that they return, it would
probably be with “The Goddess” (Vaishnavee), made by the widow of Sri Lanka’s
most famous director Lester James Peries and based on a story he wrote. It’s a
fantasy-drama about a puppeteer who carves a puppet in memory of the fiancée
who abandoned him, which then comes to life.
Other options: romantic drama “The Day We Will” and scam-artist tale
“The Undecided” joined “The Goddess” in a special Sri Lanka retrospective at
the Moscow Film Festival. Other possibilities include national reconciliation
drama “Her. Him. The Other”, and “Joyful
Journeys”, about an 85-year old grandfather getting to know his young grandson.
21. TAIWAN- “Father to
Son” This year is likely to be a race between glossy crime drama “The Bold,
Corrupt and the Beautiful” and the new Hou Hsiao-hsien produced drama “Father
to Son”. “The Bold, Corrupt and the Beautiful” won the Golden Horse Award last
year and has gotten very strong notices for its story of murder, corruption and
political intrigue, revolving around a widow who becomes the head of a crime
empire. “Father to Son” debuted this
year in Rotterdam and is executive produced by Hou Hsiao-hsien, whose painfully
languorous arthouse films have represented Taiwan three times. In the film, a
dying Taiwanese man travels to Japan to find news of his long-absent father,
while another Hong Kong man travels to Taiwan to search for him. With “Bold”’s
political themes, “Father” is perhaps a more relatable story. Taiwan has made some odd choices lately
including last year’s LGBT well-meaning documentary “Small Talk”, which was
more of a therapy session than a film. So, it’s definitely possible they’ll
select the bizarre “Great Buddha”, a B+W indie black comedy that won the 2017 Taipei
Film Festival, or “Love Education” (Busan) by Sylvia Chang (selected twice), a
family drama set in Mainland China about the conflict between two widows who
shared the same husband. LGBT dramedy “Dear Ex”, which won the Taipei Film
Festival in 2018 won’t be released in time, while “Angels Wear White” may be considered
too much of a Mainland Chinese film. I think "Father to Son" and "Bold" are in a virtual tie, but predict "Father" has the edge.
TAJIKISTAN-
“Narrow” Tajikistan has entered the race twice before, but never since
2005. Their national film festival only runs every other year so they are
probably preparing any national premieres they have for this year’s edition
that opens in October. If they chose to send a film, the only one I’m aware of
is “Narrow”, a drama that played at the Eurasia International Film Festival in
neighboring Kazakhstan. It’s about a 9-year old boy who famous social exclusion
because his family has not gotten him circumsized per Islamic custom.
THAILAND- “Samui Song”
Thailand doesn’t have much to pick from this year and I’m kind of confused
as to what they would send. However, it’s always foolish to bet against Pen-ek
Ratanaruang, who has represented Thailand four times (five if you count 2006
when the Thais changed their mind after picking “Invisible Waves”). Cult
thriller “Samui Song” played in Venice Days and has some high-profile Thai
actors in it. I’m just not sure what else Thailand would pick. Manta Ray”
premiered in Venice Horizons but surely won’t get a release at home by
September 30. “Khun Pan 2” looks good but is a silly action sequel. “7 Days”
sounds like a melodrama version of “Quantum Leap”. It’s “Samui Song” by
default. Maybe?
VIETNAM- “Song Lang” Vietnam’s
most widely anticipated film of the year is “The Third Wife”, which will have its World premiere
at the Toronto Film Festival on September 7. Filmed with the backing of Spike
Lee’s production company, it’s a 19th century period piece
about a 14-year old girl chosen to be the third wife of a wealthy landowner.
Make no mistake about her name- director Ash Mayfair is born and raised in
Vietnam. Vietnamese films have often struggled to get a qualifying release so
it’s highly unlikely it will be released before October 1st. Count
on it being chosen next year. Vietnam doesn’t have too many other films to
choose from. I think two new nostalgic dramas- “Song Lang” and “The Tailor”
will be the main films considered. “The Tailor” (Busan) won Best Picture at the
Vietnamese Silver Kite Awards and has been compared to a Viet “Devil Wears
Prada” for its comedy-drama story of fashion designers rejecting and then
re-appreciating Vietnamese traditional dress, the ao dai. “Song
Lang” is more concerned with music than fashion, focusing on a boy growing up
in post-war Saigon, and obsessed with traditional cải lương Vietnamese folk
music. Somehow, I think the more serious, male-oriented “Song Lang” will beat
out the better-known “Tailor”. Less likely: melodrama “The Mother-in-Law”.
Possible Debuts:
UZBEKISTAN-
“Fortitude” Uzbekistan is the most important Asian country that has never
sent a film to the Oscars. With the new President opening the country up, it’s
possible they could send “Fortitude”, a drama that has been representing the
country at a number of festivals in the former USSR, including Moscow, Eurasia
(in Kazakhstan) and the Golden Apricots (in Armenia). It’s about a dying man
seeking to make amends with his estranged son before he dies. Also possible "Passing Rain" from tiny Macau and "Mystery of Burma" from Burma (Myanmar). 
