The list hasn’t officially come out yet but The Wrap has
seen the viewing assignments and it looks like we have 92 films competing. This
is one short of the record of 93, which would have been broken if we
didn’t have five major countries that decided not to compete- RUSSIA is boycotting (though they were invited), EGYPT and NIGERIA controversially
decided to send no films despite a list of shortlisted candidates, and two
countries (MALAYSIA and SOUTH AFRICA) formed committees and then failed to make
any sort of announcement at all.
Here are the 20 candidates from the Asia-Pacific region.
I’ve seen eight of these films (highlighted in yellow) and was pleasantly surprised
that most of them are quite good, though each has their strengths and weaknesses.
Number of Countries that have participated in the past: 28
Number of Countries that have participated this year: 20
(More statistics below)
FRONTRUNNERS:
1. SOUTH KOREA- “Decision to Leave” (Letterboxd: 3.9)
2. PAKISTAN- “Joyland” (Letterboxd: 4.0)
Most people agree that frontrunner “Decision to Leave” and
underdog dark horse “Joyland” are the two leading candidates from Asia- and not
just because they both won big awards at Cannes….Korea’s noir thriller ”Decision
to Leave” is the buzziest film on the Oscar list. I’ve loved the three (yes,
only three…) Park Chan-wook films I’ve seen but I’ve heard so many divisive
things about the slow burn mystery of “Decision to Leave”. Some say it’s
brilliant…others say it requires a second viewing to fully comprehend and
appreciate (sorry, but who has time for that?)….others say it’s plods along. Korea
is hot right now and I expect it make the shortlist but I’m not confident it
can make the Final Five. Contrast that with “Joyland”. Though it has no
distributor and fewer people have heard of it, reviews are stronger than
“Decision to Leave”, including a 4.0 on Letterboxd (#2 in Asia) and 100% on
Rotten Tomatoes (#1 in Asia). And the fact that a transgender love story was selected
to represent conservative Pakistan shows you just how good the film is (though-
in their defense- the Pakistani Academy, led by two-time Oscar winner Sharmeen
Obaid-Chinoy, has always been be far more modern and progressive than the country
itself). Although the film was later banned in Pakistan, I can confirm it is
eligible. “Joyland” is probably the film I’m most worried about. Two years
ago, Pakistani sent another controversial film- “Circus of Life” which was one
of the two best films I saw that year…and it didn’t even get shortlisted. I’m
seriously hoping “Joyland” avoids the same fate and follows in the footsteps of
Oscar winner “A Fantastic Woman”.
DARK HORSES:
3. CAMBODIA- “Return to Seoul” (Letterboxd: 3.5)
4. JAPAN- “Plan 75” (Letterboxd: 3.5)
5. MONGOLIA- “Harvest Moon” (Letterboxd: 3.7)
Cambodia's "Return to Seoul" is essentially a French film. It represented France at Cannes, it's half in French, and director Davy Chou was born and raised in France to Cambodian parents. The film, about a Korean adoptee raised in France who seeks out her birth parents in Seoul, played at Un Certain Regard and has gotten warm notices. It's Southeast Asia's best chance for a third nomination (1993/2013) from the region.
I have so much to say about "Plan 75", this year's incredibly original, heartbreaking, and deeply flawed film from Japan. Let's start with the positives. It's a great idea- not so far in the future, the Japanese government launches "Plan 75" to help curb the country's aging population, offering monetary rewards to the elderly who volunteer to commit suicide. Chieko Baisho gives an Oscar-worthy performance as a lonely old woman who feels compels to volunteer for the scheme after losing her job and her apartment. If only the film focused only on Baisho and her elderly friends (though that may be asking a lot of the octogenarian actresses), the film would be an "A". Unfortunately, we also have to meet a bureaucrat at Plan 75, an underdeveloped Filipina nurse, and others whose stories are less compelling and far less developed. Worst of all, the film fails to end its stories well. However, Baisho (who has the main story) is so compelling that this film may compete for 15th place.
In Mongolia's delightful "Harvest Moon", a young fatherless boy living with his grandparents in rural Mongolia bonds with a man visiting from the capital. It’s a great, little film. The relationship between Tulga (the man) and Tuntuulei (the boy) is compelling and realistic…heartwarming without being saccharine…while also subtly conveying its message about the importance of fatherhood. The cinematography is Oscar-worthy and the Mongolian vistas are incredible. Unlike Japan, the film “sticks the landing” with a powerful ending. Unfortunately, the film has almost no buzz….and I worry about the film “standing out” in such a large field. The Foreign Film Committee has ignored even better films from Mongolia (“The Steed”, “Cave of the Yellow Dog”)
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
6. PHILIPPINES- “On the Job 2” (Letterboxd: 3.8)
7. AUSTRALIA- “You Won’t Be Alone” (Letterboxd: 3.6)
8. THAILAND- “One for the Road" (Letterboxd: 3.5)
9. TAIWAN- “Goddamned Asura” (Letterboxd: 3.2)
10. INDIA- “Last Film Show” (Letterboxd: 3.7)
I’ve seen three of these films (Australia, Taiwan and Thailand). They’re all good movies and one could potentially surprise, I think they’ll
miss the Top 15. Let’s take a look at the pros and cons:
AUSTRALIA- “You Won’t Be Alone”
In a Nutshell: A Gothic fairy tale set in 19th
century Macedonia about a newborn baby cursed by an evil witch.
Pros: It’s one
of the most original films of the year…the young director is adept at creating
a spooky atmosphere while also drawing out the tragic, emotional arc of the
shape-shifting lead character. The film reminded me a lot of “Lamb”- the
surprise finalist on last year’s shortlist- though “You Won’t Be Alone” is a
lot better.
Cons: It’s
slow-moving and occasionally confusing (I was confused by the ending and had to
go online to clarify). The horror-drama genre isn’t what Oscar typically goes
for (though, once again, “Lamb”….)
TAIWAN- “Goddamned Asura”
In A Nutshell: “Sliding
Doors” meets “Magnolia” meets a mass shooting, on the island of Taiwan
Pros: One
of the more thought-provoking entries from Asia, asking questions about
morality and fate, and “what if”…..whether a seemingly minor event or meeting can
change the course of your whole life. While I was wondering “where is this
going?” a few times, the film ultimately rewards the viewer.
Cons: Reviews
are markedly weaker than its competitors (it ranks 17th out of 20 on
Letterboxd, ahead of only Kyrgyzstan and the critically maligned films from
Kazakhstan and Vietnam). The film doesn’t really hit its stride until halfway
through, and some voters may not watch it all the way through.
THAILAND- "One for the Road"
In A Nutshell: A young man dying of cancer in Bangkok contacts his best friend in New York to ask for help in arranging a road trip to say goodbye to those he has unfinished business with.
Pros: It's a relatable subject, it's produced by HK auteur Wong Kar-wai, and it won a surprise Jury Award at Sundance, showing it can resonate with American audiences. The first half is well-done, with important things to say about friendship and mortality.
Cons: Unfortunately, the film veers off track and the second half is a mess, veering straight into the worst of soap opera melodrama territory and going on for far too long.
I haven’t seen the surprising entries from India and the Philippines:
INDIA- “Last Film Show”
In A Nutshell: “Cinema
Paradiso”, except in a poor village in Gujarat
Pros: Decent
reviews. AMPAS has always liked movies dedicated to a love of cinema- most
recently with the nominated “Hand of God” in this category last year.
Cons: More
than a month after India’s controversial decision, people are still talking
more about how “RRR” deserved to represent India than about the quality of “Last
Film Show”. It’s a small film with an annoying lead character.
PHILIPPINES- “On the Job 2”
In A Nutshell: A
3.5 hour exposé of police corruption and censorship under President Duterte
(2016-2022)
Pros: Reviews
have been very good.
Cons: The
film, which many thought would be ruled ineligible, is also airing on HBO as an
edited miniseries- and its lengthy running time probably makes it more suited to
television.
UNLIKELY TO ADVANCE:
11. NEW ZEALAND- “Muru” (Letterboxd: 3.8)
12. SINGAPORE- “Ajoomma” (Letterboxd: 3.4)
13. BANGLADESH- “Hawa” (Letterboxd: 3.7)
14. KYRGYZSTAN- “Home for Sale” (Letterboxd: 2.7)
15. NEPAL- “Butterfly on the Windowpane” (Letterboxd: 3.9)
These five films will bring much-needed attention to their
small local-language film industries, and I’m so glad that they all submitted
films. However, their chances of advancing are slim.
“Hawa” is the first film from Bangladesh to gross over $200,000
in North America and reviews for this exciting thriller set on a fishing boat
have been great in South Asia and mostly (but less) positive in North America.
Tech credits are said to be a major step up for Bangladeshi cinema. Kyrgyzstan
and Nepal have sent small films that will surely get lost in the mix. “Home for
Sale”, about a Kyrgyz family threatened by loan sharks, quietly premiered at
Busan 2022. The film has no buzz and is said to be a grim, “realism” drama that
will make it difficult to stand out. “Butterfly on a Windowpane”, from Nepal,
is an earnest family drama focused on the lives of a 13-year old girl and her
mischievous little brother living in an impoverished village. This is a sincere
but quiet and mostly forgettable film until the final minutes, which admittedly
pack an emotional wallop, though I’m not certain Oscar voters will have the
patience.
New Zealand’s “Muru”, about 2007 police raids on the country’s
indigenous Maori communities, has gotten mostly good reviews but I’ve heard
some say that the film is less impactful without the cultural context (though I
would expect that American audiences will understand only too well police raids
in minority neighborhoods), and that it punctuates the quiet drama with
unnecessary action sequences. It comes out on DVD at the end of the month and I’ll
try to see it then to judge for myself.
Alongside these four grim stories, we have Singapore-Korea co-production
“Ajoomma”, which is a much lighter film about a shy Singaporean widow obsessed
with Korean pop culture who travels to Seoul alone after her son says he is too
busy to take her. This “late-in-life” adventure may resound with older voters
and it sounds like a lot of fun, but reviews have been more “What a nice film!”
rather than critical raves.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:
17. HONG KONG- “Where the Wind Blows” (Letterboxd: 3.3)
18. CHINA- “Nice View” (Letterboxd: 3.4)
19. KAZAKHSTAN- “Life" (Letterboxd: 2.8)
20. VIETNAM- “Magnum 578" (Letterboxd: 0.7)
First of all, the films from Kazakhstan and Vietnam just
haven’t gotten good reviews so they’re out. Kazakhstan’s “Life” (Toronto) is
one of the most interesting films on the list but this 3-hour film about a successful
tech entrepreneur who accidentally loses the data, photo and memories of
millions of people is said to be overlong and dramatically unsuccessful. Action
flick “Magnum 578”, about a man seeking revenge for his kidnapped daughter, not
only sounds a cross between Vietnam’s 2019 fun submission “Furie” and Liam
Neeson’s “Taken”, but nobody seems to have a good word to say about it. An odd
choice.
“Where the Wind Blows” (aka “Theory of Ambition”) is a big-budget, all-star triad film from Hong Kong. Hong Kong has sent countless crime dramas that look exactly like this and none of them (including “Infernal Affairs”) got shortlisted. The few reviews that are out there indicate a positive but unspectacular reception, and this is not going to advance.
Now the Statistics:
Who’s Missing?: Not many….but BHUTAN and MALAYSIA
are noticeably absent. Bhutan was the surprise nominee at this year’s
Oscars and I wondered whether that would inspire them to submit films regularly
(they’ve got a small but prolific local film industry aimed at domestic
audiences). But it seems they’ll only send films aimed at a more international audience.
Malaysia has submitted fairly regularly since 2015. They formed a committee
this year and announced a call for eligible films, so I’m not sure what
happened to them.
AFGHANISTAN- whose government succumbed to brutal
Taliban rule again in Summer 2021- is sadly in no condition to send films to
the Oscars.
Also absent: FIJI (entered one film in 2005), LAOS
(one film in 2017), SRI LANKA (two films 2003-2009), TAJIKISTAN (two
films 1999-2005) and UZBEKISTAN (two films 2019-2021).
Genres: Less than half of the Asian countries have
sent straightforward “dramas”. We also have three “dramedies” (China, Indonesia
and Singapore), 1 horror-drama (Australia), one action movie (Vietnam) and six
thrillers (Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Korea, New Zealand, Philippines, and Taiwan).
I’ve Already Seen: Australia, China Indonesia, Japan,
Mongolia, Nepal, and Taiwan….and I plan to see Thailand before this list is
published.
How Many Did I Get Right?: Only 5- Australia, Bangladesh, Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand
Film I’m Most Excited To See: Pakistan’s “Joyland”. No contest.
Big Three Festivals:
·
Cannes- Korea (Best Director), Pakistan
(UCR Jury Prize), Cambodia, Japan
·
Berlin- None
·
Venice- Philippines (Best Actor)
Women Directors- Only
one! ☹ Chie Hayakawa from Japan….5% …. How
embarrassing!
Oldest and Youngest Directors- The senior director
from this (very young) group is Korea’s Park Chan-wook, 59. The youngest
director of all 92 competing films is 28-year old Tearepa Kahi from New
Zealand.
Languages Represented- 20 films in 19 languages! Bengali,
Cantonese, Filipino, French, Gujarati, Indonesian, Japanese, Kazakh, Korean, Kyrgyz,
Macedonian (Australia), Mandarin, Maori, Mongolian, Nepali, Russian, Thai, Urdu
and Vietnamese. The most represented language unsurprisingly is Mandarin
Chinese (China, Taiwan plus parts of Singapore and Korea), followed by Korean
(Korea, plus parts of Cambodia and Singapore).
How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- From this
group? Hmmm….Not that many….Maybe three or four?
Most Likely to Get Shortlisted for the First Time- Pakistan
Buzziest Films: “Decision to Leave”, followed by
“Joyland”
Letterboxd Ratings (as of 16 November 2022): Best: Indonesia (4.1), Worst: Vietnam
(0.7)
Controversies and Changes: India was considered as
one of the frontrunners to win the Oscar for box-office smash “RRR”. I think
those claims were exaggerated but it was still a controversial mistake for
India to reject this widely-loved film for a low-budget drama about kids going
to the movies.
China’s frontrunner “Return to Dust” passed the Chinese
censors and was released in local cinemas where it was a surprise box-office
hit….before being mysteriously pulled and subsequently banned without any
reason given.
The Philippines was criticized for not sending a film last
year and the Director’s Guild criticized the Film Academy of the Philippines
for not sending “eligible films” like “On the Job 2”. Most experts felt the
film wasn’t eligible this year since it aired on HBO before appearing in
Filipino cinemas, but AMPAS appears to have accepted it since it’s world
premiere was at the Venice Film Festival.
Pakistan made this year’s most courageous choice, choosing
transgender love story “Joyland”, which was perhaps surprising for not being
especially controversial….
Oscar History: Only
two of these directors has been here before and neither one is Park
Chan-wook (the Korean Academy didn’t submit “Oldboy” or “The Handmaiden”).
Philip Yung represented Hong Kong in 2016 for the forgettable noir thriller
“Port of Call” while Nattawut Poonpiriya represented Thailand in 2013 for the
gonzo horror thriller “Countdown”. 11 of these 20 countries have been nominated
in this category at least once (13 if you count nominations in other categories
for Mongolia and New Zealand).
Most Notable Omissions: Besides the aforementioned
“Return to Dust” (China) and “RRR” (India)?
Sometimes an underdog country has the bad luck to have two great
films come out in one year and that certainly happened to Pakistan where
“Kamli”, supposedly one of the best films ever to come out of Pakistan, had to
compete against “Joyland”, a critical darling and the first Pakistani film ever
at Cannes. I was also sad to see New
Zealand comedy “Nude Tuesday”- spoken completely in a made-up gibberish
language without subtitles- lose out to “Muru”.
“Karmalink” (Cambodia) and “The Brilliant Darkness” (Vietnam) may
have been hurt by the fact that they have American directors.
Also absent: Zhang Yimou’s “Snipers” (China), “Before, Now and
Then” (Indonesia), “The Kashmir Files” (India), “Sales Girl” (Mongolia) and “Leonor Will Never Die” (Philippines).
Some of these probably didn’t meet Oscar screening requirements.
Most Famous Faces: Internationally, it’s probably
Swedish actress Noomi Rapace who co-stars as one of the village women in
Australia’s “You Won’t Be Alone”. But we also have Tony Leung and Aaron Kwok
(“Where the Wind Blows”), Tang Wei (“Decision to Leave”) and Cliff Curtis
(“Muru”).
Last Year’s Race: I saw 16 of the 18 Asia-Pacific
submissions last year. My personal favorite was horror film “The Medium” from
Thailand (A-) although I’m sure that AMPAS hated it. I’d put Bhutan’s “Lunana”
(A-) in a close second place followed by “White Building” (B+), “When
Pomegranates Howl” (B+), “Yellow Cat” (B+), “YunI” (B), “Hail Driver!” (B),
“Escape from Mogadishu” (B), “Cliff Walkers” (B), “Bố già” (B), “The Falls”
(B), “Rehana” (B-), “Drive My Car” (C; sorry, not sorry), “2000 Songs of
Farida” (C), “Pebbles” (C-) and finally the abysmally sappy “Zero to Hero” (D).
I couldn’t find the films from Kyrgyzstan and Singapore anywhere.
1 comment:
Hi, glad to read your input and predictions. Best of luck to "Joyland".
South Korea - I'm on the side of the praises, but I'm a fan of Korean master (out of 9 Park Chan-wook's films I've seen, I disliked only "...Kiborg...") so I'm not sure that I'm the right person to ask. It's probably the less repellent of his films (in terms of violence and sex) and without many high-profile films (on the paper) it should make the shortlist, but with South Korea, you never know.
Pakistan - Unlike (the excellent) “Circus of Life”, "Joyland" has the advantage of being screened at several festivals including Cannes and Toronto. Its biggest threat comes from other LGBT films, there're quite a few of them this year with positive reception. Besides Pakistan, we have Finland, Morocco and you may also count Belgium. Someone would have to fall, I just hope it would not be Pakistan as "Joyland" deserves this recognition.
Japan - It seems that I'm much less forgiving than you're.
Mongolia - Indeed, though my favorite Mongolian submission was "Veins of the World" and o was truly disappointed when it didn't make the cut. I find "Harvest Moon" more compelling than "The Steed", and it reminds a bit of "Lunana" though, unlike the Bhutanese nominee, it had a "late" world premiere just before the submission would not make its route easy.
Australia - Being a fan of genre cinema I sadly was disappointed with both "Lamb" and “You Won’t Be Alone”.
Taiwan - Again, you're right. The editing was great, disliked the message and found that it was told too directly to the audience.
Thailand - +1
India - Wannabe "Cinema Paradiso", but lacks reliability. Not that I believe "RRR" would have a better chance.
Indonesia - I can't understand how it has such a high rating. Typical south-Asian comedy, too silly for me (as a foreigner), and overacted.
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