OSCARS 2023: The Submissions from Western Europe (18 1/2 films)

And here are the heavy-hitters from Western Europe....

Number of Countries That Have Entered the Race: 20

Number of Countries Participating this year: 19....but tiny Malta was disqualified for having too much English dialogue

(more statistics below)

EXPECTED ON THE SHORTLIST: 

        

1. GERMANY- “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Letterboxd: 4.0)

2. BELGIUM- “Close” (4.0)

3. NORWAY- “War Sailor” (3.7)

4. AUSTRIA- “Corsage” (3.5)

I expect to see all four of these films on the shortlist. 

People are already talking about Germany's "All Quiet on the Western Front" and "Close" as two of the front-runners to win the Oscar. With Belgium's festival awards (Cannes Grand Prix), Germany's Netflix backing and dark horse Best Picture Oscar buzz, plus Oscar-friendly subjects and general critical acclaim, these two films should make the 15-film shortlist easily. Both got Golden Globe nominations-- the only two European films to do so. Most importantly under the new rules, a lot of voters are likely to see these two films and put them somewhere on their "Top 15" list. 

While Oscar's love for war films has waned in recent years, "All Quiet's" anti-war message and "reboot" of the Academy Award-winning American original set during World War I make it the frontrunner from this group. However, it's the other wartime film that I think will be the surprise on the shortlist on Wednesday. Norway- which has been shortlisted 4 of the past 10 years- has sent "War Sailor", the most expensive Norwegian film ever made. Reviews for this WWII epic have been very good, but more importantly, they seem to be exactly what this committee likes- a combination of war movie, serious and heartfelt family drama and high-quality production values to appeal to members from the tech branches. I think "War Sailor" is in, unless the new rules mean not enough people will see it. 

Speaking of high production values, gaudy costume drama "Corsage", about the 19th century Austrian Empress Sissi, is also a very likely contender, especially since lead actress Vicky Krieps is (just barely) in the conversation for Best Actress. Krieps won't be nominated but perhaps that will help the film get seen? I hate biopics but from the previews, this is one that I'm really excited to see. 

VERY POSSIBLE: 

5. FRANCE- “Saint Omer” (3.6)

6. DENMARK- “Holy Spider” (3.5)

7. IRELAND- “The Quiet Girl” (4.1)

8. ICELAND- “Beautiful Beings” (3.9)

Let's take a close look at these four serious contenders:

DENMARK: "Holy Spider"

In A Nutshell: Filmed entirely in Persian, this is the true story of an Iranian serial killer who murdered prostitutes and supposedly "immoral women" in a fit of religious zeal. 

Pros: Denmark knows how to play the game. With an outstanding nine shortlist mentions in the past twelve years (7 were nominated; 2 of them won), Denmark understands what the Academy likes and this film was selected over the popular local hit "Forever". Women's rights in Iran is a topical subject this year; the film has gotten strong critical notices. 

Cons: This is a violent, explicit thriller...not the sort of film Oscar usually goes for. It's ratings on critics' sites are weaker than most of its competition, showing that the film is divisive. 

FRANCE: "Saint Omer"

In A Nutshell: A courtroom drama about a mother on trial for killing her baby, set amidst France's community of African descent, loosely based on the Greek myth of Medea.  

Pros: This is said to be the "intellectual" choice of the year. Critical reviews are excellent and courtroom dramas like "12" and "Lucia de B." have found their way to the shortlist in the past. 

Cons: The "intellectual" choice doesn't necessarily translate into votes....

ICELAND: "Beautiful Beings"

In A Nutshell: A downbeat coming-of-age tale circa 2000, involving Icelandic gangs, bullying and a possibly psychic family. 

Pros: I really feel this film could surprise in the same way that "Better Days" (Hong Kong) did a few years ago. Nordic cinema is hot right now (Iceland was shortlisted last year), the film's reviews are excellent, and Oscar has sometimes favored youth dramas if they're dark and gritty. 

Cons: Nobody is talking about it. 

IRELAND: "The Quiet Girl"

In A Nutshell: A girl from a large, dysfunctional family in rural Ireland is sent to live with relatives for the summer who care for her in a way her natural family does not. 

Pros: The film has positive buzz and is frequently mentioned as a strong contender. It's a very sweet film with strong acting performances and would have been a shoo-in for a nomination in the 1980s.....

Cons: But tastes have changed and I think this sweet, old-fashioned but ultimately small and predictable story will miss the cut this year. 

DARK HORSES: 

     

9. SWEDEN- “Cairo Conspiracy” (aka "Boy From Heaven") (3.6)

10. UK- “Winners” (3.4)

11. NETHERLANDS- “Narcosis” (3.6)

12. SPAIN- “Alcarras” (3.8)

From the Islamic world, we have "Boy From Heaven" (set in Egypt but representing Sweden) and "Winners" (made in Iran but representing the United Kingdom), two strong contenders that I think will fall just short of the Top 15....but one could surprise. "Boy From Heaven" is a political thriller about the politicking going on behind the scenes to appoint a powerful Islamic official (roughly equivalent to selecting a new Pope). I haven't seen it and I'm not sure if the Islamic politics will be understood by U.S. audiences, but I do think the film will do well. "Winners" has been compared to the works of Iranian Oscar nominees Majid Majidi and Asghar Farhadi and also "Cinema Paradiso", which are great connections to have! This small but sweet story about Iranian children seeking to find the owner of a lost statue will also do well, but is likely to get lost in the shuffle. 

Also probably too "small" is "Narcosis", a film about a family's grief over the loss of their son, hailing from the Netherlands. The Hollywood Reporter says directly that the film is "too quiet to rise to the fore" in the Oscar race. In common with Iceland and Portugal, the film has an interesting psychic/supernatural angle that could make the film stand out. However, it was also one of the only films on FestivalScope that didn't give permission for screeners, which I take as a bad sign. 

Yes, I know that many people are predicting "Alcarras", the Spanish submission about a large family of peach farmers facing eviction. I haven't seen "Alcarras" but having seen Carla Simon's previous Oscar submission, "Summer 1993", I just don't think her style will play well with Oscar and the films 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes seems to back that up. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see "Alcarras" as a strong contender, especially since the similarly themed Tunisian candidate looks better.  
UNLIKELY:

13. ITALY- “Nostalgia” (Letterboxd: 3.3)

14. FINLAND- “Girl Picture” (3.7)

15. PORTUGAL- “Alma Viva” (3.4)

16. SWITZERLAND- “Piece of Sky” (3.3)

Finally! Portugal picked a good film! "Alma Viva" is probably the best submission I've ever seen from the country, which (in)famously holds the record for sending the most films without ever been nominated (or even shortlisted). "Alma Viva" is a lovely little film about a young girl sent to live with relatives for the summer (just like Ireland). Her grandmother is known as the village "witch", helping departed souls and conducting rituals for the community, which makes her worshiped, feared and hated by certain villagers. After her grandmother dies, the little girl may or may not be possessed by the grandmother's spirit....It's a really special film of "magical realism", but way too small to compete with the big contenders here. 

        

Based on their reviews, Italy and Switzerland aren't quite good enough to compete for the shortlist this year. "Nostalgia" is about an Italian man (and Muslim convert) who returns to his impoverished Neapolitan neighborhood after decades away from home. Narrated by an odd chorus of singers, Switzerland's "Piece of Sky" is about a young couple whose relationship comes under strain when the man is diagnosed with a brain tumor.  

Finland's "Girl Picture" has gotten stronger notices for its story about three teenaged Finnish girls dealing with first love, sex and relationships during a bitterly cold winter in Helsinki. It won the Audience Award at Sundance so American audiences can clearly relate to the stories of Mimmi, a confident young lesbian with family issues, Rönkkö, who is depressed that she doesn't enjoy sex and intimacy as much as her friends say she should, and Emma, a talented ice skater exploring her sexuality. It's very well-done but it's clearly a youth-oriented film and I don't think it will resonate with Oscar voters the way "Beautiful Beings" will. 

NO CHANCE:

17. MALTA- “Carmen” (3.2)

18. LUXEMBOURG- “Icare” (3.4)

19. GREECE- “Magnetic Fields” (3.7)

                    

While it’s true that harmless comedy “Magnetic Fields” has been a critical darling in Greece and has a nice message about friendship, it’s way out of its league here. I’m not sure if the Greek humor doesn’t translate into English or if they just have low standards, but this is a very forgettable indie about a man and woman who inexplicably end up on a road trip with an urn of the man’s late aunt’s ashes. It’s not a bad movie but it wastes its potential early on and the woman- an aging dancer- gets on your nerves. 

Malta sent quirky comedy “Carmen”, supposedly based on a true story, about a shy woman in her 40s who suddenly must start a new life when she loses her job and her home when her controlling older brother- the parish priest- dies suddenly. The first half is mostly in Maltese and seems to be channeling "Amelie"....the second half switches mostly to English and goes in a more melodramatic direction. It's a cute indie film but wouldn't have scored here. 

As for Luxembourg, they've send the beautifully animated "Icare" (Icarus), a spare 76-minute reworking of the Minotaur myth from Greek mythology.  I assumed they sent it to get the film into the Animated Feature race, but it's not on that list.....In any case, it's well-made but this is not the sort of film that gets honored here. Luxembourg is here to get their film seen by an international audience. 

Who’s Missing?: Only Greenland (pop: 57,000) failed to send a film, although they probably didn’t have anything eligible and they haven’t sent a film since 2012. I heard in 2019 that the territory no longer had an active Oscar selection committee.

Genres: As usual, Western Europe is heavy on the “drama”, although Denmark has sent a thriller, Greece a comedy (sort of) and Luxembourg an animated film.  

I’ve Already Seen: Greece, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal. I also have access to the films from Finland (Amazon), Germany (Netflix) and Ireland (Amazon UK). 

Number I Predicted Correctly: Eight. Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, and the UK. I also predicted “Holy Spider” (incorrectly) would represent Sweden, since director Ali Abbasi’s previous film “Border” did. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Probably Belgium’s “Close”? 

Big Three Festivals:

·         Cannes- Austria (Best Actress, UCR), Belgium (Grand Prix; 2^nd Place), Denmark (Best Actress), Italy, Portugal, Sweden (Best Screenplay)

·         Berlin- Finland, Iceland, Ireland (two prizes, Youth Section), Spain (Golden Bear Grand Prize), Switzerland (Special Mention, Main Competition)

·         Venice- France (Grand Jury Prize; 2^nd Place)

Women Directors-           Six out of 19. Cristèle Alves Meira (Portugal), Valerie Buhagiar (Malta), Alice Diop (France), Alli Haapasalo (Finland), Marie Kreutzer (Austria) and Carla Simón (Spain). Malta was disqualified. 

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Mario Martone (Italy) is 63. Lukas Dhont (Belgium) is 31.  

Languages Represented- 15 We have three films dominantly in French (Belgium, France, Luxembourg), three in German (Austria, Germany and the Swiss German “Piece of Sky”) and two (!) in Persian (Denmark and the UK). The others are in Arabic (Sweden), Catalan, Dutch, Finnish, Greek, Icelandic, Irish Gaelic, Italian, Maltese, Norwegian and Portuguese.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- It’s a very strong group! Probably 12 out of 19.  

Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- Ireland

Buzziest Films: Hard to say….Perhaps “Corsage” or “Close”?   

Letterboxd Ratings (as of 19 December 2022):      Best: Ireland (4.1), Worst: It was Malta (3.2) but since they were disqualified, it’s a tie between Italy and Switzerland (3.3)

Controversies and Changes: None to speak of. 

Oscar History:   Four directors are back for a second time- Ali Abbasi (“Border”, Sweden), Lukas Dhont (“Girl”, Belgium), Hassan Nazer (“Utopia”, Afghanistan) and Carla Simón (“Summer 1993”, Spain). Abbasi is now representing Denmark, while Nazer is representing the UK.

Of the eighteen eligible countries, nine have won the Oscar, six more have been nominated, one shortlisted (Ireland), and only two (Luxembourg and Portugal) completely unlucky. That’s unlikely to change this year. 

Most Notable Omissions: With only one film allowed per country, the Western European countries are forced to sacrifice some of their best films. This year, the three main omissions are probably Cannes Jury Prize winner “Eight Mountains” (which was shortlisted by Italy and probably could have also represented Belgium), “Cinco lobitos” (“Lullaby”, Spain) and “One Fine Morning” (France), all of which earned some early Oscar buzz. “Lullaby” especially would have been a better choice than what Spain ultimately chose. 

Films like “Forever” (Denmark), “À plein temps” (France), Berlin Best Actress winner “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” (Germany), “Lord of the Ants” (Italy), “Sea  of Time” (Netherlands), Sick Of Myself” (Norway) and “The Beasts” (Spain) show that these films did have some support but were overshadowed by higher-profile films. 

Also absent: “L’immensita” (Penelope Cruz; Italy), “The Feast” (UK), “Tori and Lokita” (Dardenne brothers; Belgium) and “Dodo” (Greece). 

Most Famous Faces: Vicky Krieps (“Corsage”) and Daniel Brühl (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Last Year’s Race:  My personal favorite was “Worst Person in the World” from Norway (A), though Austria (A), Malta (A-), Spain (A-), Denmark (A-), Finland (A-) and Germany (B+) were also wonderful, wonderful films. The rest of the group: Italy (B+), Luxembourg (B+), Belgium (B+), Netherlands (B), Iceland (B), France (B), Ireland (B-), Greece (B-) and Portugal (D). I didn’t see the films from Sweden, Switzerland or the UK.