Number of Countries That Have
Participated in the Past: 22
Number of Countries
Participating this year: 16
(more statistics below)
FRONTRUNNERS:
1. ARGENTINA- "Argentina, 1985" (Letterboxd: 4.2)
2. MEXICO- "Bardo" (3.7)
According to some, "Argentina, 1985" is going to win the Oscar. And although critics are split on whether "Bardo" is a good movie and nobody really thinks "Bardo" will win, Iñárritu's name mean it still has a good shot at making the second round.
"Argentina 1985" is a legal drama focused on prosecuting the crimes of the Argentina military dictatorship that ruled the country for seven brutal years in the 70s and 80s. This subject was at the forefront ("The Official Story") and the background ("Secret in Their Eyes") of Argentina's two previous Oscar wins. It's said to be a very well-made film and while it may struggle to get first-place votes, its definitely acclaimed enough and well-liked enough to easily make it to the shortlist. It was the only Latin American film to get a Golden Globe nod.
"Bardo" is divisive and messy and it was way overlong until Iñárritu cut 22 minutes (though it's still over 2 1/2 hours, and the third-longest of the 92 submissions). It's a semi-autobiographical film about a journalist returning home to Mexico after twenty years away. The edited version is getting better reviews and although the film isn't "safe", Oscar loves Iñárritu and it's difficult to see him missing the first cut....But the Golden Globe snub is a bad sign....
CONTENDERS:
3. BOLIVIA- "Utama" (3.7)
4. BRAZIL- "Mars One" (4.3)
5. PANAMA- "Birthday Boy" (Cumpleañero) (2.6)
In A Nutshell: A young man visits his grandparents in a remote drought-stricken region of Potosi.
Pros: It's a critical darling, it won the International Feature award at Sundance, visually beautiful and it seems to be the perfect mix of foreign exoticism alongside a strong narrative. Since I live in Bolivia right now, it's the film that I'm really rooting for tomorrow. Screened in New York (and other) mainstream cinemas.
Cons: It's a slow-moving film from a country that's never been recognized before.
In A Nutshell: An close-knit Afro-Brazilian family lives their lives with a little more stress and caution after the election of far-right President Bolsonaro.
Pros: Like "Utama", this was warmly received at Sundance. The film scores extremely well with audiences and sometimes these "popular" tastes match Oscar more than arthouse critics faves. 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and the highest Letterboxd score in the group. Just got a U.S. distributor.
Cons: Oscar hasn't always warmed to stories about Black (though this category has been a bit more willing....) Some of the Brazilian politics may go over Oscar voters' heads (though Americans certainly understand racism and the rise of the far right)
In A Nutshell: A 40-something man invites his friends and family to a party at a beach house where he announces he is going to take his own life.
Pros: It's just a hunch....but I think this one will play very well with the Academy. A baity plot from a country that just missed out last year.
Cons: The director's last film ("Everybody Changes') veered heavily into telenovela territory. No buzz, no festival play....(but you could say the same for "Plaza Catedral")
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
6. COLOMBIA- "Kings of the World" (Los reyes del mundo) (4.1)
7. VENEZUELA- "The Box" (La caja) (3.1)
8. CANADA- "Eternal Spring" (Printemps Éternel) (3.2)
Although it should be representing Mexico instead of Venezuela, "La caja" (The Box) is quite a good film, following a 12-year old from Mexico City who begins following a man he believes to be the father who abandoned the family ten years before. The film doubles as an expose about the exploitation of workers and migrants seeking a better life in Mexico and/or the USA. Lorenzo Vigas directed one of my favorite Venezuelan submissions- "From Afar"- a few years ago and while that film was better, "The Box" would be a deserving shortlister. However, "From Afar" didn't get shortlisted and "Box" isn't doing nearly as well with critics. It starts slow...maybe that's why? While I easily guessed one of the film's two "twists", the other one came as quite a surprise.
Seeking to follow in the footsteps of "Flee" and "Waltz with Bashir", Canada has selected an animated documentary, this time about the brutal repression of the Falun Gong spiritual cult in China (yes, they deserve the freedom to practice, but it's still very much a cult). This is a confusing one, and I'm honestly not sure how AMPAS will feel about it. Curzon Home Cinema has blocked my VPN so I haven't been able to see it myself. AMPAS hasn't often gone for gang tales but "Kings of the World", from Colombia won the Grand Prize at the San Sebastian Festival so it does have a chance. I think "Kings" is likely to just miss out like "Monos" and "Monga"....but we'll see.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
9. URUGUAY- "The Employer & the Employee" (El empleado y el patrón) (3.2)
10. CHILE- "Blanquita" (3.2)
11. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-
"Bantú Mama" (3.2)
12. GUATEMALA- "Silence of the Mole" (El silencio del topo) (3.5)
NO CHANCE:
13. COSTA RICA- "Domingo and the Mist" (Domingo y la niebla) (Letterboxd: 3.2)
14. PERU- "Moon Heart" (El corazón de la luna) (3.3)
15. PARAGUAY-
"Eami" (3.2)
16. ECUADOR-
"Lo invisible" (3.2)
These four odd films may have their fans but they won't have any chance at making the nomination stage. I've seen two of them.
"Eami", from Paraguay, is clearly a labor of love, focusing on the culture and the sad plight of the Ayoreo, an indigenous group numbering only 5000-6000 people. The film discusses their mythology and their persecution at the hands of Paraguayan settlers and ranchers. The problem is that the film makes no linear sense. It's 80 minutes of mythological poetry, strange imagery, long-shots of nature and odd camera angles. It may have won Rotterdam, but it's a non-starter here. "Lo Invisible", a drama about a woman with severe post-partum depression, is Javier Andrade's second shot at Oscar. I preferred the first- "Porcelain Horse"- which was a fairly engaging soap opera with queer sensibilities. "Lo invisible" takes its time revealing the history of Luisa, a wealthy. It's so slow that the audience (or maybe just me) loses interest....and even by the confusing end of the film, you don't know that much more than when you started. A great lead performance, but a disappointing film.
I don’t know too much about Costa Rica's environmental ghost story "Domingo and the Mist" but reviews have generally been positive but unenthusiastic and Escalante’s previous film required patience that Oscar voters may not have.
Possibly the oddest film in this year's competition, "Moon Heart" from Peru is about a sci-fi/fantasy film about an elderly homeless woman and a "mechanical robot angel". There's very little information about it online, but what there is sounds daringly original, very weird and not entirely successful. I'm excited to see it, but it's definitely not going to be competitive here.
Who’s Missing?: With Puerto Rico no longer invited, the only
major country missing this year is Cuba. Also out: Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua
and Suriname, though none of them appeared to have any eligible contenders.
Genres: Canada, Guatemala and (sort of) Paraguay sent
documentaries; Canada’s is also an animated film. In all honesty, I don’t think
Paraguay’s film should count as a Documentary, but it’s on the Oscar longlist
so I guess the filmmakers think it is one. Peru’s film is a weird sci-fi/fantasy;
the other twelve are straight dramas.
I’ve Already Seen: Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Venezuela. I
plan to see the front runners from Argentina (Amazon) and Mexico (Netflix) before
the end of the year.
Number I Predicted Correctly: 8 out of 16; Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Paraguay. I was pretty shocked by the choices made by Peru
and Venezuela.
Film I’m Most Excited To
See: Definitely Panama’s “Birthday
Boy”
Big Three Festivals:
· Cannes- Costa
Rica, Uruguay
· Berlin-
None
· Venice- Argentina (FIPRESCI Award), Chile (Best Screenplay), Mexico, Venezuela (UNICEF Award)
But it’s important to note that many other films won awards at other prominent festivals, such as Sundance (Bolivia), Rotterdam (Paraguay) and San Sebastian (Colombia).
Three out of 16- Paz Encina (Paraguay), Laura
Mora (Colombia) and Anaïs Taracena (Guatemala), the first woman to represent
her country.
Oldest and Youngest Directors- Alejandro González Iñárritu (Mexico) is 59 while
Gabriel Martins (Brazil) is 34.
Languages Represented- Unsurprisingly, 13 out of 16 films are wholly or mostly
in Spanish (including Bolivia, which is roughly 50% in Spanish and 50% in Quechua).
The others are in
Portuguese (Brazil), Mandarin Chinese (Canada) and Ayoreo (Paraguay), an endangered
indigenous language
How Many Have a Chance
at the Shortlist?- Maybe
six?
Most Likely to Get
Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Bolivia 🇧🇴
Buzziest Films: “Argentina 1985”
Letterboxd Ratings (as
of 19 December 2022): Best: Brazil (4.3), Worst: Panama (2.6)
Controversies and
Changes: The producers of “The
Employer and the Employee” sort of defied the rules. They entered their film for
consideration last year but it was not selected; so they changed the film’s
release date and entered it again this year. But that doesn’t violate any rules.
Oscar
History: Obviously
the big name is Alejandro González Iñárritu (Mexico), who has won five Oscars,
including Best Director twice for the English-language “Birdman” and “The
Revenant”. He also has five additional nominations, including two in the
Foreign Film category for “Amores Perros” and “Biutiful”.
Four other directors
have been here before: Ecuador’s Javier Andrade (2013; “Mejor no hablar de
ciertas cosas”), Costa Rica’s Ariel Escalante (2017; “The Sound of Things”), Panama’s
Arturo Montenegro (2019, “Everybody Changes”), and Venezuela’s Lorenzo Vigas (2016;
“From Afar”)
Of the sixteen
countries, four have won in this category (Argentina, Canada, Chile and Mexico),
three more have been nominated (Brazil, Colombia, Peru) and three have been shortlisted
(Guatemala, Panama and Venezuela). Six are waiting for their first mention
(Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Paraguay, and- sort of- Uruguay)
Most Notable Omissions: Not a whole lot….I expected “Official Competition” to be hot competition for “Argentina 1985” but it was not considered by the Argentinian committee, probably because it was “too Spanish”. The saddest omission for me was Venezuelan thriller “Jezabel” which was defeated by “The Box”, which was really a Mexican film.
Not selected: “Falcon
Lake” (Canada), “1976” and “My Imaginary Country” (Chile), “Amparo” (Colombia),
“Parsley” (Dominican Republic), “Nudo Mixteco” (Mexico), “Husera” (Peru), and “Me
and the Beasts” (Venezuela)
Most Famous Faces: Ricardo Darín (Argentina, 1985) and Nahuel Pérez
Biscayart (Employer and the Employee)
Last Year’s Race: The best film from the region last
year was definitely Canada’s “Drunken Birds” (A-). I was sad that it didn’t
make the shortlist. Also good: Brazil and Panama (B+). I also saw the films
from Ecuador (B), Dominican Republic, Haiti, Paraguay and Venezuela (B-), Argentina
and Chile (C+), Mexico (C) and Bolivia (C-). I didn’t see “Memoria” (Colombia),
“Clara Sola” (Costa Rica), “Manco Capac” (Peru) or “Broken Glass Theory” (Uruguay).
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