FINAL PREDICTIONS

And here are my final predictions:

MY PREDICTED SHORTLIST: (films I've seen highlighted in red)

1. Spain- “Society of the Snow”

2. United Kingdom- “The Zone of Interest”

3. Ukraine- “20 Days in Mariupol”

4. Germany- “The Teachers’ Lounge”

5. Finland- “Fallen Leaves”

6. France- “The Taste of Others”

7. Denmark- “Promised Land”

8. Japan- “Perfect Days”

9. Mexico- “Totem”

10. Iceland- “Godland”

11. Bhutan- “The Monk & the Gun”

12. Ireland- “In the Shadow of Beirut”

13. Jordan- “Inshallah A Boy”

14. Italy- “Io Capitano"

15. Bulgaria- “Blaga’s Lessons”

STRONG ALTERNATES

16. Poland- “The Peasants”

17. Australia- “Shayda”

18. Burkina Faso- “Sira”

19. Tunisia- “Four Daughters"

20. Macedonia- “Housekeeping for Beginners”

21. Argentina- “The Delinquents”

22. Sweden- “Opponent”

23. Turkey- “About Dry Grasses”

24. Czech Republic- “Brothers”

DARK HORSES:

25. Chile- “The Settlers”

26. Israel- “Seven Blessings”

27. South Korea- “Concrete Utopia”

28. Netherlands- “Sweet Dreams”

29. Romania- “Do Not Expect Much from the End of the World"

30. Philippines- “The Missing”

31. Lithuania- “Slow”

32. Sudan- “Goodbye Julia”

33. Brazil- “Pictures of Ghosts”

34. Mongolia- “City of Wind”

35. Venezuela- “Shadow of the Sun”

36. Nigeria- “Mami Wata”

37. Morocco- "Mother of All Lies"

2023-2024 Submissions from Western Europe (18 films)

And with the list due to be released tomorrow, here is a quick rundown of the films from Western Europe. These films will probably make up a majority of the shortlist tomorrow (and many of them deserve it).

Unfortunately, due to travelling most of the month of November, I haven’t gotten to two of my Western European screeners….I still need to watch Iceland and Luxembourg before the end of the year…

I'll try to add commentary before the list comes out, but I won't change my rankings. 

Number of Countries Participating this year: 18

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 20

Who’s Missing?:  Only Greenland and Malta, which have tiny film industries, did form selection committees this year…..but its possibly they simply had no films that met all the requirements. Many of Malta’s small film output is in English.

VIRTUAL LOCKS:

 

1.      SPAIN- “Society of the Snow” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.      UNITED KINGDOM- “The Zone of Interest” (4.1)

3.      FINLAND- “Fallen Leaves” (3.8)

According to most sources, Spain and the UK are the frontrunners to win the Oscar. Like many recent winners, they are also considered a threat for other categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress (UK), as well as Best Make-Up (Spain) and Best Score (both), which helps them to be seen. "The Zone of Interest", a German-language film by a British director, has been a favorite since it won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) in Cannes. It's about the family life of the commander of the Auschwitz concentration camp and has some of the best reviews of the 88 contenders. "Society of the Snow", beat a lot of internal competition to represent SPAIN and with its Netflix deal and familiar story, is my current prediction to win. It's about the 1972 plane crash in the Andes that many know from the Ethan Hawke film "Alive". Director JA Bayona is well-known in Hollywood. It's impossible for either film to fail to make the shortlist stage. 

In a strong third place is "Fallen Leaves" from FINLAND. While this light romantic comedy-drama is less certain, I think the fact that it netted both a Best Foreign Film and Best Actress nomination at the Golden Globes mean that it's a safe bet for the shortlist, though not for a nomination. Kaurismaki got Finland's only Oscar nomination twnety years ago, and "Fallen Leaves" is supposed to be a better film. 

EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST:

 

4.      GERMANY- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (3.8)

5.      FRANCE- “The Taste of Things” (3.9)

6.      DENMARK- “Promised Land” (3.8)

7.      ITALY- “Io Capitano” (3.7)

ON THE BUBBLE

  

8.      ICELAND- “Godland” (3.8)

9.      SWEDEN- “Opponent” (3.4)

10.  IRELAND- “In the Shadow of Beirut” (3.9)

11.  NETHERLANDS- “Sweet Dreams” (3.5)

I've seen three of the four films in this group...and I loved all three. I really hope that at least one of these dark horses makes the shortlist. SWEDEN has selected an intriguing drama set in a detention center for asylum seekers. The less you know about the plot the better, but it's awesome seeing what Iranian actor Payman Maadi expand his acting range in a country with far less censorship. I really loved this film twisty film that seems predictable but isn't....and it beat out some fierce competition in Sweden...though critics seem to love it a lot less than I do. Go watch it!

IRELAND has sent in the best documentary of the year- "In the Shadow of Beirut"- featuring four families living in a poor slum of Beirut. Yes, while I acknowledge the historical and political importance of "20 Days in Mariupol" and the quality of the Ukrainian film, this is definitely the best documentary on the list. "Beirut" skillfully tells multiple stories of fascinating people with difficult lives, while at the same time making you think about poverty, politics and the importance of enjoying and appreciating the little things in life.  It will be in my Top 5....and if Oscar voters watch it (and they probably won't), it will definitely be on the shortlist tomorrow. 

THE NETHERLANDS used to be a superpower in this category but they haven't been nominated in twenty years. "Sweet Dreams" is a fascinating historical drama about a family and their servants in Dutch colonial Indonesia. 80s star Renee Soutendijk gives a great comeback performance and the film tells a bitter, humorous and ultimately tragic soap opera about what happens when a wealthy plantation owner leaves everything to the illegitimate son he fathered with the housemaid. 

As for ICELAND, "Godland" was one of the best-reviewed foreign films of the year....but that year was 2022. It wasn't released in Iceland until 2023 so it's competing in this category this year. This film about a Danish priest virtually driven mad when he is assigned to a small community in 19th century Iceland is on the bubble for a spot on the shortlist. I wonder if it would have done better last year when it had buzz on the film festival circuit.  

MIDDLE OF THE RANKINGS

   

12.  BELGIUM- “Omen” (3.4)

13.   SWITZERLAND- “Thunder” (3.4)

14.  PORTUGAL- “Bad Living” (3.3)

15.  LUXEMBOURG- “The Last Ashes”  (3.2)

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: 

  

16.  GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” (3.4)

17.  AUSTRIA- “Vera” (3.4)

18.   NORWAY- “Songs of Earth” (3.5)

All three of these films have good reviews but don't have any chance at making the finals. "Songs of Earth" is probably a good nature documentary but selecting it for the International Feature category was a big mistake by NORWAY. "Vera", a peculiar docu-drama representing AUSTRIA, is about an Italian socialite who gets into a car accident is also too unconventional to get votes. From GREECE, we have a drama about a poor family (father, mother and adult daughter) living on the Greece-Macedonia border in a transit area for migrants from Africa and the Middle East. Telling the same story from all three perspectives, this is an interesting little film that gets better as it goes along but isn't strong enough to contend for the next round.  

Genres:       We have two documentaries (Ireland and Norway) plus the odd docu-reality-drama from Austria (I still don’t quite understand what this movie is), and one sort-of comedy from Finland. The rest are dramas.

I’ve Already Seen: 5- Underdogs Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. The middle three are fantastic films, and I hope that at least one can make it to the next round. I will see Iceland, Luxembourg and Spain by the first week of January. 

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Germany’s “Teachers’ Lounge”

Number I Predicted Correctly: 8/18….Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Spain and the UK. A lot of countries had really competitive races.  

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin- Germany, Portugal (Silver Bear, Jury Prize), Sweden

·        Cannes- Belgium (UCR, New Voice Prize), Finland (Jury Prize), France (Best Director), Iceland, UK (Grand Prix)

·        Sundance- None

·        Venice- Austria (Best Director and Actress, Venice Horizons 2022), Denmark, Italy (Silver Lion), Spain (Closing Film)

Women Directors- Only 5 films had female directors or co-directors: Tizza Covi (Austria), Carmen Jaquier (Switzerland), Margreth Olin (Norway) Asimina Proedrou (Greece) and Ena Sendijarević (Netherlands). Austria has had films directed or co-directed by women seven of the past nine years, which has to be some kind of record!

Oldest and Youngest Directors- Aki Kaurismäki (Finland) and João Canijo (Portugal) are both 66. Bosnian-Dutch director Ena Sendijarević is the youngest at 36.

Languages Represented- There are 14 dominant languages- Arabic (Ireland), Danish (Denmark and Iceland), Dutch, Finnish, French (Belgium, France and Switzerland), German (Germany and the UK), Greek, Italian (Austria), Luxembourgish, Norwegian, Persian (Sweden), Portuguese, Spanish, and Wolof (Italy). There are also healthy doses of Icelandic, Indonesian (Netherlands), Lingala (Belgium) and Swedish in their respective films.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Most of them….I’d say 11 or 12.

Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- All of these countries have been nominated except Luxembourg and Portugal….and I don’t see that changing this year. The UK is the most likely to win for the first time.  

Buzziest Films: “Zone of Interest” by auteurs….”Society of Snow” thanks to Netflix….and “The Taste of Things” because of the divisive critical reaction.  

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 20, 2023):      Best: UK (4.1)  Worst: Luxembourg (3.2)

Dumbest Decision: Well, most people say it’s FRANCE for selecting “The Taste of Things” over Palme d’Or winner, Golden Globe nominee and Best Actress contender “Anatomy of a Fall”…..But France had a difficult decision. NORWAY made a big mistake in my opinion when deciding to pick a nature documentary…. But I’m giving this award to AUSTRIA for choosing a reality-show docu-drama over a film (“The Fox”) that could have legitimately contended for an Oscar nomination.  

Controversies and Changes:  Other than the failure to submit “Anatomy of a Fall”, there were no major controversies from the region, although Austria almost failed to submit a film when their new internal rules disqualified most of their own selection committee. (I think it said that all members must have two film credits in the past five years…which some distinguished filmmakers like Michael Haneke couldn’t meet).

I expected a controversy from Finland where temperamental Aki Kaurismaki usually doesn’t allow his films to be submitted….but he allowed “Fallen Leaves” to be sent without incident.

Oscar History:   In total, a whopping ten of these 18 countries have previously submitted directors.

We have three Oscar nominees in the race: Nikolaj Arcel (Denmark) got an Oscar nomination for “A Royal Affair” in 2013, Aki Kaurismaki (Finland) got one for “The Man Without A Past” in 2003 and Trần Anh Hùng (France) got one for “The Scent of Green Papaya” (representing his native Vietnam) in 1994.

I admit that I thought JA Bayona was an Oscar nominee for “The Impossible”….but he wasn’t.

Matteo Garrone has represented Italy twice before, with “Gomorrah” in 2008 and “Dogman” in 2018. Joao Canijo has represented Portugal twice before, with “Noite Escura” in 2005 and “Blood of My Blood” in 2012.

Tran also represented Vietnam for “Vertical Ray of the Sun” while Kaurismaki was selected to represent Finland three times before, although he threw a temper tantrum and demanded that two of them (“Drifting Clouds” and “Lights in the Dusk”) be withdrawn before the viewing stage.  

Here for the second time: Austria’s Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel (“La Pivellina”, 2010), Iceland’s Hlynur Palmason (“A White, White Day”, 2019), Ireland’s Garry Keane (“Gaza”, 2019), Spain’s JA Bayona (“The Orphanage”, 2007) and Norway’s Margreth Olin (“Angel”, 2010).

Of the 18 Western European countries, 9 have won the Oscar multiple times (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), 4 have been nominated multiple times (Belgium, Greece, Norway, UK) and 3 have been nominated just once (Finland, Iceland, Ireland). Just two- Luxembourg and Portugal- are waiting for their first shortlist spot. Portugal holds the world record for most submissions (39) without ever advancing to the second round.

Most Notable Omissions: Wow…This year, there were a lot of front-runners who failed to make the Oscar shortlist. Interestingly, ten of these countries now announce a list of the finalists that they consider (Austria and Belgium are the only major countries that don’t) so we have a good idea of exactly who came close.

 

Of course, Palme d’Or winner and Oscar frontrunner “Anatomy of a Fall” was the most notable omission…but France has so much to choose from and the “one country, one film” will always affect them the most. The other high-profile omissions were Alice Rohrwacher’s “La Chimera” (Italy), “Close Your Eyes” (Spain) and “The Fox” (Austria).

Also out: “Eismayer” (Austria), “When It Melts” (Belgium), “Before It Ends” (Denmark, by Oscar -winning Short Film director Anders Walter), “Afire” (Germany), “Black Stone” (Greece), “Driving Mum” (Iceland), “There’s Still Tomorrow” and “Kidnapped” (Italy), “When We Lost to the Germans” (Netherlands), “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” (Norway, although it didn’t even make the national shortlist), “20,000 Species of Bees” (Spain), and “Paradise is Burning” (Sweden).

Most Famous Face: Of course it’s a tie between Oscar winner Juliette Binoche (France) and international film star Mads Mikkelsen (Denmark). But I’d like to offer a bronze medal to Iranian actor Payman Maadi (“A Separation”) who stars in “Opponent” (Sweden).

Last Year’s Race: I saw 17 of the 19 films from this region last year. Although they dominated the Oscar shortlist, I mostly wasn’t impressed. The best were the Oscar-nominated “Close” and the surprisingly good “Nostalgia” from Italy (I almost didn’t watch it as I thought it looked terrible). The rest (in order):

Sweden and Iceland (A-), Portugal, France, Finland, Germany (B+) Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Malta, Luxembourg (B) UK, Netherlands (B-), Spain (C) and Greece (D). I didn’t see the films from Norway (which was only released as a Netflix TV miniseries in the USA) and Switzerland (though I have the DVD sitting unwatched in my living room).

2023-2024 Submissions from Africa and the Middle East (19 films)

Here are the 19 films from Africa and the Middle East. The eleven films from Africa ties the record number of submissions from the continent set in 2020, when screening requirements were eased during the pandemic…. If Algeria hadn’t unexpectedly been absent we’d have a new record.

Number of Countries Participating this year: 19

Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: Well, technically 35….but many of them only submitted once or twice.  

Number of Debuts: 1, NAMIBIA.

Who’s Missing?:  The two most notable absences are regional powerhouses ALGERIA and LEBANON. Having submitted every year for a decade and amassing two Oscar nominations, Lebanon was the most surprising absence worldwide. At least one journalist contacted Lebanon’s Ministry of Culture to remind them of the deadline but he received no response and it’s unclear why Lebanon failed to send a film. They will be missed. Algeria usually sends a film and I read somewhere that 89-year old Palme d’Or winner Mohammad Lakhdar-Hamina headed a selection committee this year…It’s possible there were no submissions? Their leading candidate- costume drama “The Last Queen”- was submitted last year even though it didn’t premiere until 2023. Maybe they declined to consider it a second time?  

ETHIOPIA submitted on a somewhat regular basis from 2010-2019 but they seem to have given up, and they didn’t have a good contender this year. They’ll have to submit a film next year or else they’ll be relegated to getting their committee re-approved again.

The other missing countries have only ever submitted once (Congo-Kinshasa, Ghana, Lesotho, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, Syria, Uganda), twice (Kuwait, Malawi, Tanzania) or three times (Chad, Cote d’Ivoire). From this group, I only expected to see UGANDA, which debuted last year, submit a film this year.

FRONTRUNNERS:

1.      TUNISIA- “Four Daughters” (Letterboxd: 3.9)

2.      JORDAN- “Inshallah A Boy” (3.6)

Docudrama "Four Daughters" has been a critical darling since it premiered in Cannes 2022, winning several small awards. Director Kaouther Ben-Hania ("The Man Who Sold His Skin") has made an unusual documentary about a woman with four daughters who wakes up one day to find that the two eldest (and clearly evil) have run away to join ISIS. Ben-Hania uses actresses to replace the two terrorist girls in what most critics say is a very effective piece (I haven't seen it yet). Although there are a lot of documentaries in the mix this year, only two (Ukraine and Tunisia) are considered favorites. 

I am probably ranking JORDAN's beautiful character study of a Muslim widow in crisis- "Inshallah A Boy"- too high. Every year, I forget that simply because a film is excellent doesn't mean it will make the shortlist (see "Aurora's Sunrise", "Circus of Life", "Eva Nova", "Tu Me Manques") because AMPAS doesn't always treat little films with the care they deserve. However, in additional to being on the strongest films, it’s also been mentioned as  a dark horse contender on several websites and I’m hoping this will be one of the surprises. 

DARK HORSES:

3.     TURKEY- “About Dry Grasses” (3.9)

4.      ISRAEL - “Seven Blessings” (3.6)

5.      BURKINA FASO- “Sira” (3.3)

6.     NIGERIA- “Mami Wata” (3.5)

ISRAEL has sent a raucous family dramedy about a week-long series of family dinners, uniting a large extended Moroccan Jewish family for the wedding of an estranged daughter. With so many characters, the film starts off incredibly confusing but the director manages to fix that within 20 minutes. The film, about a woman with two mothers who are also sisters (long, long story) is the sort of film that I think Oscar would have loved 10-15 years ago....It's a great pick, but I'm not certain it can make the Top 15. 

Unfortunately, TURKEY (Turkiye?) has a better chance than Israel. I don't like Nuri Bilge Ceylan's overlong, virtually silent films and "About Dry Grasses" is his longest yet (3 hours and 18 minutes)....but this story of a village teacher does have some fans. I'm unlikely to see it. 

The leading candidates from sub-Saharan Africa are the buzzy candidates from Burkina Faso (back after a 33-year absence) and Nigeria (here for the first time since 2020). People don’t seem to love BURKINA FASO's “Sira”, a story of survival about a young bride who is kidnapped, raped and left for dead in the desert after surviving an attack on her wedding caravan. The level of filmmaking here is incredible given the difficult environment in rural Burkina Faso, which is suffering from an Islamic insurgency in real life. I admit some of the acting is shaky at times but overall the non-professional actors do a good job. This is a brave film that is exciting, topical and ultimately uplifting. It’s one of my favorites of the 40 I’ve seen. “Mami Wata”, from NIGERIA, got an Independent Spirit nomination for Best international Film, which is an important precursor. This B&W fantasy film steeped in West African mythology focused on a village seeking the help of a mermaid goddess to combat a local plague killing local children. Most of the film’s notices are for its gorgeous cinematography so I think it will miss the shortlist stage. 

 

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

7.     MOROCCO- “Mother of All Lies” (3.5)

8.     SUDAN- “Goodbye Julia” (3.7)

9.    YEMEN- “The Burdened” (3.4)

10.  IRAQ- “Hanging Gardens” (3.3)

These four films from the Arab world will make their countries proud, though they probably won’t be able to breakthrough. Honestly, I really didn’t like “Mother of All Lies”, a deeply personal documentary about a woman interviewing family members and neighbors to learn about a secret from the past. It’s very much like “The Missing Picture” but I felt the film takes an hour to get to its main plot and I had little interest by then. But I seem to be in the minority; the film has great reviews (and the conservative grandma could have a career in acting!)

The other three films are important stories from countries plagued by recent wars. YEMEN deals with an unwanted pregnancy. IRAQ uses the humorous motif of a sex doll (abandoned by US soldiers) to explore serious issues of morality and violence in Iraqi society. SUDAN explores the relationship between a Muslim employer and her Christian South Sudanese employee, following a civil war influenced by religion. Though I’ve only seen the film from Iraq, these are probably three of the most interesting and important films on the list. “Hanging Gardens”, about an impoverished boy and his father who make a living scavenging rubbish dumps, was clearly made under difficult conditions. It’s a slow and quiet film, that mixes  a great dark sense of humor with pathos and tragedy. I’m so happy to see all three countries participating. Of these three, Sudan is the most likely to break through.

LOWER DOWN THE LIST:

 

11.   EGYPT- “Voy! Voy! Voy!” (3.7)

12.   PALESTINE- “Bye Bye Tiberias” (3.7)

13.   IRAN- “The Night Guardian” (3.2)

14.    SENEGAL- “Banel & Adama” (3.3)

After taking last year off, EGYPT is back in the race with a well-reviewed but thoroughly commercial effort- "Voy! Voy! Voy!", about a man who pretends to be blind in order to join a sports team. In a less PC and less embarrassingly "woke" Hollywood environment, it would be ripe for an American remake. This is probably a film that will make audiences laugh (unless they are "woke") but not one they will award an Oscar to. It will be interesting to see if PALESTINE (or ISRAEL) will get sympathy votes for the war in the Middle East....After "Klondike" was snubbed last year, I think not. "Bye Bye Tiberias" is a very personal documentary about the life and family of acclaimed Israel-born Palestinian Hiam Abbass, directed by her daughter Lina. The normally private Abbass, one of the most prolific and talented actresses working in international cinema, discusses her family's history during the Nakba, her marriages and her career. It's an interesting documentary but it's also very small and intimate. 

SENEGAL sent "Banel & Adama" (Cannes) a weird drama about two newly married lovers in a village, including a reluctant young chief who- per tradition- marries his brother's wife after his death. The fanatically lovestruck wife is devoted to her husband, adamantly opposed to having a child, and obsessed with a series of ancient houses buried under sand nearby. It's a weird film that I didn't really like while watching it but which I couldn't stop think about after. 

Lastly, we have "The Night Guardian" from IRAN, described as a "downbeat social drama set amid Iran's swelling underclass". Iran often does well with Oscar, but this film is one of the most obscure on this year's list and doesn't seem to have gotten any play. Although most Oscar voters probably won't realize, the film's selection was protested by independent Iranian filmmakers so that could cause some heartache too. 

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

 

15.  SAUDI ARABIA- “Alhamour H.A.” (3.4)

16.  NAMIBIA- “Under the Hanging Tree” (2.4)

17.  KENYA- “Mvera” (3.0)

18.  SOUTH AFRICA- “Music Is My Life” (3.0)

19.  CAMEROON- “Half Heaven” (2.5)

Welcome NAMIBIA! First of all, I loved "Under the Hanging Tree", the first-ever submission from the southwestern African country. It's a weird mix between David Lynch (who I love) and Nuri Bilge Ceylan (who I don't), set against the background of a bizarre murder case in the Namibian savannah. The film is crazy and doesn't always make sense, but I really enjoyed it. But it's too out-there to contend here. 

The three other Anglophone African countries in this category have even less of a chance. KENYA sent "Mvera", a low-budget drama about human and organ trafficking. The cinematography looks great but the film has no buzz and it's the only film that doesn't have any votes on IMDB and only four on Letterboxd. CAMEROON sent a weird drama in Pidgin English about Evangelical Christianity that will probably make voters uncomfortable, while SOUTH AFRICA sent a rather routine music documentary. Voters may be impressed by the Zulu-language music but won't remember the film- an homage to an obscure South African group that has performed with a number of very famous Hollywood artists.  

As for SAUDI ARABIA, they've sent what I've heard is a very entertaining "Wolf of Wall Street"-type comedy and the first-ever "R-rated" Saudi feature. Though I don't think Oscar voters will vote for such a commercial film, it's great to see Saudi Arabia - where cinema was illegal until a decade ago- branch out into a new genre of film.   

Genres:       We have four documentaries (Morocco, Palestine, South Africa and Tunisia), two comedies (Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and one fantasy film (Nigeria).  

I’ve Already Seen: 8- Burkina Faso, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Namibia, Palestine and Senegal. My favorites were Burkina Faso and Jordan.

Film I’m Most Excited To See: Definitely “The Burdened” from Yemen, because I loved the director’s last film so much.

Number I Predicted Correctly: 10/19 - Cameroon, Iraq, Jordan, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, Turkey and Yemen

Big Four Festivals: 

·        Berlin- Burkina Faso (Panorama Audience Award), Yemen (Amnesty International Award)

·        Cannes- Jordan, Morocco (Best Director, UCR + Documentary Prize), Senegal, Sudan (Freedom Prize, UCR), Tunisia (Documentary Prize), Turkey (Best Actress)

·        Sundance- Nigeria (Best Cinematography)

·        Venice- Iraq, Palestine

Women Directors- 6 films had female directors: Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia), Asmae El Moudir (Morocco), Ayelet Menahemi (Israel), Lina Soualem (Palestine), Ramata-Toulaye Sy (Senegal), and Apolline Traoré (Burkina Faso)

Oldest and Youngest Directors- I’m not 100% sure but probably Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey), who is 64, and Daudi Anguka (Kenya) who is 30.

Languages Represented- This is a confusing question since roughly half the films are multi-lingual. Eight films are totally in Arabic, while two more (Israel and Palestine) are partially in Arabic. Two films are entirely in Persian and Turkish. Two African films are mostly in dialects of the Fula languages (Burkina Faso and Senegal). Other languages: Afrikaans (Namibia), Fon (Nigeria), French (Burkina Faso, Israel, Palestine), Hebrew (Israel), Pidgin English (Cameroon, Nigeria), Swahili (Kenya) and Zulu (South Africa). The films from Kenya, Namibia, and South Africa are also largely in English.

How Many Have a Chance at the Shortlist?- Maybe seven?

Most Likely to Get Nominated for the First Time- Turkey

Buzziest Films: “Four Daughters”, followed by “Mami Wata” and “About Dry Grasses”

Letterboxd Ratings (as of December 18, 2023):      Best: Tunisia and Turkey (3.9)  Worst: Namibia (2.4)

Dumbest Decision: Most of these countries made smart decisions (or, alternately, selected the only reasonable film eligible…) Of course, I think that Cameroon, Iran and South Africa could have made better choices, but it’s possible the films I have in mind didn’t get a proper domestic release. The dumbest decision was- of course- LEBANON which had a number of eligible films, including the acclaimed “Dirty, Difficult, Dangerous” (Venice 2022)…but sent nothing.

Controversies and Changes:  The biggest controversy came from IRAN. After the announcement of “The Night Guardian”, a group of exiled filmmakers released a statement calling the selection unrepresentative of Iranian cinema and appealing to AMPAS to allow a film to be selected by a non-government affiliated organization.

Oscar History:   Kaouther Ben Hania is the only Oscar nominee here. She got a surprise (but well-deserved) Oscar nomination for “The Man Who Sold His Skin” three years ago, and she was also selected in 2018 for “Beauty and the Dogs”, which was my favorite film of that year.

Nuri Bilge Ceylan is representing Turkey for the sixth time since 2003, and is one of the most submitted directors from any country. He got Turkey to the shortlist for the first and only time in 2008, with “Three Monkeys”.

Reza Mirkarimi was selected to represent Iran for the fourth time after “So Close, So Far” (2005), “Cube of Sugar” (2012), and “Today” (2014), although Iran withdraw “Cube of Sugar” due to an ill-advised political boycott.

Here for the second time: Amr Gamal (Yemen; “10 Days Before the Wedding”) and Enah Johnscott (Cameroon, “Fisherman’s Diary”)

Most Notable Omissions: Probably the most important omissions are were “Terrestrial Verses” (Cannes...also known in some countries as "Kafka in Teheran"), which couldn’t pass the censors in Iran, and political thriller “Burning Days” (also Cannes), which lost a competitive race in Turkey.

 

Also absent: “The Last Queen” (Algeria), “Mambar Pierrette” (Cameroon…maybe eligible next year???), “The Rain Bride” (Iraq), “Delegation” and “Vanishing Soldier” (Israel), “Queens” (Morocco), “Alam” (Palestine), “Within Sand” (Saudi Arabia), “Father and Soldier” (Senegal), “Harka” (Tunisia), and “Black Night” (Turkey).

Most Famous Face: Hiam Abbass, the star and subject of “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine). It’s true that music mega-stars like Dolly Parton and Paul Simon were interviewed for “Music is My Life” (South Africa), but I don’t think that counts.

Last Year’s Race: I saw 12 out of 16 films last year and there were some truly amazing films…that Oscar mostly ignored. My favorite was “World War III” from Iran (A), a twisty drama in the Farhadi tradition. I can’t understand why it hasn’t attracted more international attention. “Mediterranean Fever”, a jet-black comedy from Palestine was also brilliantly plotted (A).

I also loved “Farha” (Jordan, A-), “Blue Caftan” (Morocco, A-) and “Cinema Sabaya” (Israel, A-).

I also saw the films from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Uganda (B+), Lebanon (B), Tunisia and Turkey (B-) and Tanzania (C).