EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

 It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time and I'll at least  do a few regions of the world. 

Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly. 

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. I’m not sure of anything else that Albania has that would be serious enough to send.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a drama about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, and learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film as “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”. Overseas reviews were mixed and director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community and is directed by Inna Sahakyan, who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas but “Taghiyev: Oil” was a good film and possibly the best Azerbaijani submission so far. Two of the four films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the second two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick “Taghiyev IV: School”, which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch the first school for girls, over the objections of backwards religious opposition. The third film is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the films are produced by the daughter of the President, which is another reason they’ll send it.

BELARUS- “One for Two”  Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott that started in 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film, “The Black Castle”, but it was released too early. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first-year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious possibility. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to the successful 2022 film “Father’s Last Wish”. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy has a few favorite directors. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights”  (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners. But both of these very prolific directors have had films that weren’t selected so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order” and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main film festival/award ceremonies. “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four weren’t eligible), “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival and last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  Neither of I think Komandarev will get this for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile, although it’s “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, that has the best reviews this year. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter)  “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German film.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), although Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score) and raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it got a festival berth in Locarno 2025. It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia cinemas, is about a insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films entered the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all they should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece, is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a local crowdpleaser than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will give this to “If Pigeons”. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone, then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. Their most likely submission is “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and which will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret side of Tallinn, the most beautiful of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and director Aleksandre Koberidze is felt to be “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors will also be in contention- Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very, very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”, but the other two films have much better reviews. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili (one of my favorite directors) has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili was the one who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (a very good film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: the upcoming “Tear Gas”, about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, which was just announced for a Locarno sidebar.

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, “Silent Friend” from Venice 2025 and “Ground Floor” from Venice 2026. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying  things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung  and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars (and tends to prefer late releases). Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will “do the right thing” and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if it’s more than 50% in foreign languages. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” how it does before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 (getting shortlisted once) before abruptly quitting, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed my favorite submission in 2020, “Exile”). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovars bother to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue”  Latvia will be difficult to predict this year. Previously  submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing  Latvian language film of all time) are competing  against  the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is not a majority Latvian film but it may be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot….Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language productions….Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But since a long  shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..and that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of independence in the 1990s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in the major categories of the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh Blood Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at highbrow Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War”, a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which affects their plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll easily make it this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature (fungi!) documentary “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers, “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern girls faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’, and “Seventeen” (Berlinale Perspectives), about teenage girls faced with sexual violence. This one is tough and all three films would make an excellent choice to represent Macedonia. Manchevski has been picked four times before but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them.

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024, when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit again…but I think they’ll return since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist.

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a good year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century conflicts with the Ottomans. I think the size and scope (and costumes and production design) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks more interesting to me. “Otter”, which has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are prediciting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and he probably will get it. These days, having a “visible” film is more important than having a good one. The German-language “Fatherland” is his first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a given….and I “Wild Wild East” (due to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. Count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be counting English words to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve seen people online swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since the thriller starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if and only if it’s in English) so Romania can relax and choose another film. Their four main options include “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….though “Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, is more serious than his earlier submissions (though still theatrical). I’m going to predict that Romania is one of those countries that sends a new, untested film. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transi Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu.

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” Like Iran, I have no doubts that Russia will boycott this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” won instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into a trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like 30-something comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here” and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….they opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt and last year saw only two candidates submitted….meaning that an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend in large part on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers see is incredibly emotionally moving.

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with a smaller film industry)….Since 2014, all but three directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who develops the acquaintance of a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At” , a drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women by the Communists. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards), or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars. So he’s the most likely. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though that one is more likely to be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that are soon to be released- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters”, “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time?

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of war-torn Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance in the face of Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian “space trucker” who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but he eventually receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? It beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring 2-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO”). These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees”  (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5.