EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time....Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly.

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania's unique tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran, who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. Albania doesn't have anything else that would be serious enough to send so this should be an easy choice.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a French co-production about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, but who learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film using words like “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”.....in other words, very, very mixed......Director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the national Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community that performs Shakespeare. The film is directed by Inna Sahakyan who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas...but “Taghiyev: Oil” was quite good and definitely the best Azerbaijani submission I've seen so far. The first two Taghiyev films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the final two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick the concluding chapter - “Taghiyev IV: School” - which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch Azerbaijan's first school for girls, over the objections of backwards Islamic clerics. The third film ("Sona") is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the four films are produced by the daughter of the President....which is another reason I'm pretty sure they'll submit this year. 

BELARUS- “One for Two” Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott of 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return this year. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film this year (“The Black Castle”) but it was released too early to compete. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who courageously died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious of the two. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions and is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to local hit film “Father’s Last Wish”, which was released in 2022. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. So, I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy definitely has a few favorite directors that they just love. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights” (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners on paper. But both of these very prolific directors have had films that weren’t selected so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order”, and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main film festival/award ceremonies. “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four films weren’t eligible), “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival, while last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  I think Komandarev will get this for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile, although it’s “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, that has the best reviews of the year. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter) “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German production.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), while Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score), plus raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it's the only one that got screened at a major festival (Locarno 2025). It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia, is about an insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films had registered to join the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all, the Czechs should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) is a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece and is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a Saturday night "comfort watch" than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year so they're comfortable with the subject matter. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will push “If Pigeons” over the finish line. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone (I'm pretty sure I won't....), then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. Their most likely submission is “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret (seedy?) side of Tallinn, the prettiest of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” At first glance, Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and many probably feel that director Aleksandre Koberidze is “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors are also in contention- Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very, very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, which is a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”, but the other two films have much better reviews. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili (one of my favorite directors) has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili (who I've had the pleasure of  meeting at a screening of "Blind Dates") was the director who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (also a very good film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: the upcoming “Tear Gas”, about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, which was just announced for a Locarno sidebar.

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, multilingual (English, German and Cantonese) “Silent Friend” (Venice 2025), and soon-to-premiere “Ground Floor” (Venice 2026), which is actually in Hungarian. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars and tends to prefer late releases. Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will do the right thing and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if the committee decides that more than 50% of the film is foreign-language. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” the reaction from Venice before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 - getting shortlisted once - before abruptly quitting the competition, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed "Exile", my favorite Kosovar submission, in 2020). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner!) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovar selection committee bothers to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue” Latvia will be difficult to predict. Previously submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing Latvian language film of all time) are competing against the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is absolutely not a majority Latvian film...but it could be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot. Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language directors....Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But because "Minotaur" seems like a long shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive, PC U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably going to be “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team, versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of Latvian independence in the 90s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in most major categories at the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh, Blood, Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at artsy Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So, the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War” means it will probably be going to the Oscars. "Divorce" is a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which directly affects their future plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll be selected easily this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature doc (about fungus!) “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards this year, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers; “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern-day teenagers faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’; and “17” (Berlinale Perspectives), about teenaged girls faced with sexual violence. This one is tough and all three films would make excellent submissions. Manchevski has been picked four times before, but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them.

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024 when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit …but I think they’ll return this year since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist. But "Transit Times" was produced by Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, so I wouldn't count that out. 

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a good year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century wars with the Ottoman Turks. I think the size and scope (and costumes and production design) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks more interesting to me. “Otter”, which could be hurt by the fact that it has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are predicting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and it's absolutely true that he probably will get it. These days, choosing a “visible” film is more important than choosing the best one. The German-language “Fatherland” is Pawlikowski's first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a shoo-in….and I believe “Wild Wild East” (soon to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. You can count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films eligible this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but likely won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be getting out the stopwatch to count English words in order to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve seen people online swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since "Fjord" (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if and only if it’s not in English) so Romania can now relax and choose another film. Their four main options are “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….although “Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, is more serious than his earlier submissions (though still reportedly very theatrical). I’m going to predict that this year Romania will be of those countries that sends a new and largely untested film. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. It's due to premiere in Locarno this month. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transit Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu (see MOLDOVA).

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” I have no doubts that Russia will boycott the Oscars again this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” got it instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into an ambush/trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here”, and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….They opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those competing for Russia this year.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt. Last year saw only two candidates submitted….As a result, an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training exercises in their community, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend completely on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee, and which can prove a cinematic release. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers say is incredibly emotionally moving.

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with smaller film industries...). Since 2014, all but three submitted directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who meets a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At”, a based-on-a-true-story drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards) or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is both their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars thus far. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though I suspect that one will be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that will be released soon- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters” and “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time to shake up the Slovenian race?

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance to Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards (the Golden Dzygas) resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian 'space trucker' who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but who then receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? "Universe" did beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director at the Dzygas. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO” with Isabelle Huppert)! These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees” (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5. 

OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the Eastern Euro Submissions

It's that time of year!  Here are my predictions for the Oscar submissions from the 24 countries of Eastern Europe. 

The big question here is whether Russia will participate. There's been no word about them being disinvited from the Oscars the way they have for sporting events.....Georgia- where there have been reports of increasing artistic censorship, and Russia will have the most interesting races.

1.  ALBANIA- “The Albanian Virgin” Bujar Alimani has represented Albania 3 out of 14 times, and is the only living Albanian director to have been selected more than once. Considering that his Communist-era melodrama “The Albanian Virgin” (Warsaw) is one of the best-reviewed Albanian films in years, it would be foolish to bet against him. Set in the 1950s and 60s, "Virgin" is about a woman trying to live her own life despite the extreme pressures of Communism and misogynistic Albanian traditions. Upcoming drama “A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On”, about two deaf-mute twins who learn they are going blind, is a dark horse from the director they selected in 2017.

2.  ARMENIA- “Aurora’s Sunrise” Armenia used to submit intermittently but they have been a regular participant for the past six years. This year, they have two good options- “Amerikatsi” (The American),  a drama which opened the country’s Golden Apricot Film Festival, and “Aurora’s Sunrise”, an animated documentary about a woman who was the only person in her family to survive the Armenian genocide. These are two really strong contenders although I think the animated documentary- which was recently featured in the prestigious Annecy festival of Animation- will beat the drama, also about an Armenian genocide survivor, this time a man who leaves his home in the United States to return to repressive Soviet Armenia in 1947.

3.  AZERBAIJAN- “Sughra & Her Sons” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscar competition last year for the first time in four years with quirky comedy “The Island Within”. Azerbaijani cinemas had been closed for most of the pandemic but finally reopened in Fall 2021. I see three possible contenders, including two by up-and-coming 35-year old director Hilal Baydarov. “Crane Lantern” premiered at the 2021 Tokyo Film Festival, while “Sermon to the Fish” is scheduled to premiere in the Main Competition at Locarno 2022 (quite an accomplishment for the Azerbaijani film industry!). “Lantern” is co-produced by Danny Glover and Mexican director Carlos Reygadas and is said to be a challenging, arthouse film about a man accused of kidnapping four women, all of whom mysteriously decline to press charges against him. “Sermon” is about a man who returns to his home village only to find his dying sister is the sole survivor of a mysterious illness. There’s also “Sughra & Her Sons”, about a band of Azeri women running a village while their menfolk are away fighting during WWII. Director Ilgar Najaf directed two of Azerbaijani’s eight Oscar submissions so far. It’s a tight race and may depend on what gets released in Baku before the November 30^th deadline. I predict the cliquey Azeris go back to Najaf.

4. /  BELARUS- “Courage” I actually don’t expect Belarus to enter the race this year and with international sanctions against the country, I’m actually wondering whether they’ll even be invited. If the selection committee is under the control of the government-in-exile, I predict they’ll send one of the many documentaries on the protest movement that has sprung up in the country since the rigged 2020 elections, including “Courage”, “Mara” and “When Flowers are not Silent”. They could also opt for “Summer of ‘89”, a coming-of-age drama about one of the last high-school classes in the former USSR. I’ll predict “Courage” which has gotten the most play in Western Europe.

5.   BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair” Danis Tanovic won Best Foreign Film for “No Man’s Land” and Bosnia has selected all three of his locally-made films since. Black comedy “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”, a low-budget effort about two neighborhood restaurants feuding amidst the COVID-19 outbreak, has gotten good reviews and is likely to continue his streak. However, a few days ago, the Sarajevo Film Festival announced that Aida Begic (“Quo Vadis, Aida”, which should have won the Oscar last year) is premiering her latest, “A Ballad”, at Sarajevo in August. Bosnian films often take a long time to hit theatres so “Neighborhood” is still my pick....But if “A Ballad”, her first comedy, gets released, it could very well get the nod. Dark horses: “Die Before Death”, about a successful young doctor who learns he is dying….and domestic violence drama “So She Doesn’t Live”.

6.   BULGARIA- “In the Heart of the Machine” Set during Communist times, prison drama “In the Heart of the Machine” has dominated Bulgarian critic’s prizes this year, winning Best Bulgarian Film at both national film festivals. It’s also done well at the box office and has an all-star cast of well-known actors. With Bulgaria mostly absent from festivals this year, this should be enough to defeat its two main competitors, “Petya of My Petya”, about a pair of similar suicides 30 years apart, and horror-drama “January”. Very dark horses: comedy-drama “Humble” and big-budget (but not critically acclaimed) biopic “Botev”.

7.   CROATIA- “The Staffroom” Croatia has a history of making strange decisions and although they haven’t been universally loved, I'm a big fan of their past two super-dark submissions. This year, I see this as a two-way battle between “The Staffroom”, which won two awards at Karlovy Vary 2021, and “Sixth Bus”, about the Vukovar tragedy during the 1991 Croatian War of independence. I thought this would be a really tough battle but when “Sixth Bus” went home empty-handed at the Pula Film Festival and “Staffroom” dominated the major awards, I think it’s a safe prediction.  “The Staffroom”, which also benefits from being a more universal story, is about an idealistic teacher struggling to stay motivated within a corrupt school system. However, don’t count out “Bus”, which is supposed to be one of the better war films and features an American protagonist. Dark horse in 3^rd place: Haneke-esque “The Uncle” (Karlovy Vary).

8.  CZECH REPUBLIC- “The Last Race” The Czechs used to be a powerhouse in this category but they haven’t been nominated since 2003. They almost always choose a film from the Karlovy Vary Film Festival and this year they’d have eight choices. The frontrunners are (1)- “The Word”, a family drama set against the backdrop of the Prague Spring  and one of only two Czech features in the main competition of KVIFF (it won Director and Actor), and (2)- “The Last Race”, a skiing drama set in 1913 (the Czechs have sent two sports dramas recently). Jan Sverak, who won the Oscar for “Kolya”, has a new film called “Bethlehem Light” about an author who talks to his fictional creations, although the Czech Academy hasn't sent a Sverak film in two decades. Other options: erotic comedy-drama “Borders of Love”, which has done better with viewers than critics, murder-thriller “Shadowplay” (whose Slovak director made the wonderful Holocaust drama “The Auschwitz Report”), and “Somewhere Over the Chemtrails” (Berlin), a dramedy about racism. I’m picking “Last Race” which has the best reviews.

9.   ESTONIA- “The Sleeping Beast” Estonia, which in my opinion makes the best films in the Baltic Republics, doesn’t have much to send this year. The two films that I expected to be the frontrunners both have problems- “Deserted”, about a Swedish journalist kidnapped by Palestinian terrorists, is directed by Kadri Kõusaar, who made “Mother”, one of my favorite Estonian submissions. But it appears to be almost completely in English. Elmo Nuganen is the Estonian director with the biggest box-office draw, and his hotly anticipated medieval mystery “Melchior the Apothecary” was my prediction last year…But reviews have been mixed and there are three separate "Melchior" films being released in cinemas this year, almost like a TV series.  “The Sleeping Beast”, a thriller about the misadventures of a group of neighborhood kids, could fill the gap, as could romantic countryside drama “The Bog”. In the end, it’s probably between the high production values of “Melchior” and the somewhat better reviews for “Sleeping Beast”, which is my prediction. 

10.   GEORGIA- “Bebia, à mon seul désir” Georgia has a particularly confusing race this year, amidst charges of censorship and political interference in the arts (including cinema) by Minister of Culture Tea Tsulukiani, as well as cultural and religious conservatives. “A Room of My Own” (Karlovy Vary), about two women living together during a strict COVID quarantine, and “Wet Sand” (Locarno), about a woman who arrives in a village after the mysterious death of her grandfather, would both make excellent submissions…but underlying LGBT themes in both films might prevent the films from being screened in Georgia (the premiere of the superb “And Then We Danced” was the subject of violent protests by Christian crazies) and/or make the Georgian Academy nervous. I can confirm “Sand” did at least get a festival screening in Tbilisi in December. Two acclaimed movies from last year- “Otar’s Death” (Karlovy Vary 2021; Best Picture in Tbilisi) and “Bebia” weren’t submitted for consideration last year; maybe they’re eligible this year? (“Otar”, which would be Georgia’s best bet, sadly appears to have gotten a qualifying release in 2021). “Winter Blues”, a simple tale about a depressed young writer who meets a bohemian girl, wouldn't be uncontroversial at all…but it’s so low-budget that the Georgians might want to send something a little more sophisticated. “Taming the Garden”, a documentary that was pulled from theatres because it defamed a powerful oligarch, wouldn’t be acceptable under the current political environment. So what will they choose? I’m hoping one of the queer films gets picked. They may select something released at the very last minute…but for now I’m going to predict “Bebia, à mon seul désir” from last year gets a qualifying release so they can avoid sending one of the more controversial choices.

11.  HUNGARY- “The Grandson”  Hungary had a lot of contenders last year, but this year I see just three- “The Game”, “Gentle” and “The Grandson”. “The Game” is a Cold War thriller that’s currently getting strong notices in Hungarian theatres. It’s a sequel to a popular film (“The Exam”) but critics say you don’t need to see the first to understand the story. “Gentle” is the highest-profile Hungarian film, focusing on a female bodybuilder who becomes an escort to make some extra money. But the Hungarians pick whatever they like best (last year they picked a horror flick over a critical favorite WWII film) and I think that will be “The Grandson”, a thriller about a young man trying to save his grandfather from a financial scam. Dark horse: upcoming adoption drama “Six Weeks”.

12.  KOSOVO- “Vera Dreams of the Sea” Last year, tiny Kosovo had four films- all directed by women- at major film festivals. “Hive” (Sundance) went to the Oscars and got Kosovo’s first-ever spot on the shortlist. Their other three 2021 films- “The Hill Where Lionesses Roar” (Cannes), “Looking for Venera” (Rotterdam) and “Vera Dreams of the Sea” (Venice/Tokyo)- don’t seem to have premiered in Kosovo so they all could be eligible. I'm not sure. I think “Vera”, which won the Grand Prize in Tokyo, is the frontrunner. Focusing on a widow trying to overcome the patriarchy, it’s very similar to “Hive” and Kosovo might hope that lightning will strike twice. When comparing the two films last year, Variety opined that “Vera” was the more compelling of the two. But don’t count out “Venera” (Jury Prize in Rotterdam) either, for its well-reviewed tale of female adolescent angst.

13.  LATVIA- “January” The favorite from Latvia is “January”, a topical drama which won Best Feature at the Tribeca Film Festival in New York City. Set in 1991 during the final years of the USSR, it’s about the life of a jaded teenaged artist who joins the Latvian independence movement. Reviews have been good, although critics say the political aspects work better than the personal ones. Perhaps most importantly, director Viestur Kairish has been selected before (for “Chronicles of Melanie”) and had a strong contender two years ago when “Blizzard of Souls” defeated his buzzy “The Sign Painter”. However, there are a flurry of releases coming up this year that could knock “January” off its pedestal, including 80s rock band biopic “Jumprava: The Big Happening”, adoption drama “Sisters”, and Communist tragedy “Soviet Milk”. Of these, I’d say “Sisters” is in second place.

14.  LITHUANIA- “Mariupolis 2” More than any other country in the world, the Lithuanian Academy is partial to documentaries. In the past four years, they’ve opted for documentaries three times (although “The Jump” was disqualified and replaced with a fiction feature). So, although I want to predict crime drama “Pilgrims”, which just won Best Picture at the Silver Crane Awards, I think they’ll send “Mariupolis 2”. This documentary about the war in Ukraine was left unfinished when its Lithuanian director, Mantas Kvedaravicius, was killed by Russian forces. Critics acknowledge the power of the film, made in the virtually destroyed city of Mariupolis, while also noting that it’s basically a series of incomplete fragments- even though it was “finished” by the director’s fiancée and his editor as a labor of love. But this would certainly be a symbolic and sentimental choice for the doc-loving Lithuanians, who also have been the most vocal country in Europe condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Pilgrims” will likely come second. Other options: political thriller “Generation of Evil”, Sergey Loznitsa’s 4-hour documentary “Mr. Landsbergis”, and surreal comedy “Cinephilia”. Lithuania’s biggest film of the year- sci-fi drama “Vesper”- is in English.

15.  MACEDONIA- “Mimi” Macedonia has one of the more confusing races in Europe this year and I’m not sure what they’ll send. Their biggest film is “The Happiest Man in the World”, a Bosnian-language film about two people forced to confront the wars of the 1990s in the unlikely setting of a dating agency, which will premiere later this summer in Venice Horizons. But although Teona Strugar Mitevska is one of Macedonia’s most well-known international directors, they’ve snubbed her three times in a row, including one year when they decided to send nothing rather than the film she had submitted ("When The Day Had No Name" which had just screened in Berlin Panorama). Maybe they just don’t like her? In that case, I’m predicting “Mimi”, an adolescent drama in the mold of what they sent last year, about two sisters dealing with the death of their mother. All their other options seem even more unlikely, including Tarantino-esque comedy “Snow White Dies at the End”, and Slovak-language co-production “Piargy”, about the Antichrist….Or could they possibly send Macedonian-language horror film “You Won’t Be Alone”, which isn’t really a Macedonian film? (I predict Australia will send it instead). 

16.  MOLDOVA- “Carbon” Moldova last sent a film in 2014, the second-longest absence in Europe (after Greenland). This means they’d have to ask AMPAS to re-approve a selection committee. Their only option is "Carbon", a black comedy about the discovery of a dead body in the chaotic 1990s, that is set to premiere in San Sebastian. However, I doubt it will get a cinematic release before November 30. It's likely to be Moldova's third submission, next year. 

17.  MONTENEGRO- “The Elegy of Laurel” I was confident that Montenegro would send “The Face of Honour” but it looks like that is still in post-production.  That means Montenegro will probably send weird fantasy-drama “The Elegy of Laurel”, which premiered at home in February. It's an tonally uneven film about an old man who gets lost in the woods with ghosts and spirits after his wife leaves him at a health spa. Also possible: “The Stork”, a drama made by the country’s minority Albanian-language community which is finished and scheduled to premiere in the autumn...but I'm skeptical they'd pick a film in a minority language. 

18.  POLAND- “EO” Isabelle Huppert! At Cannes! With a donkey! It’s hard to see Poland resisting this charming drama about a donkey repeatedly changing hands around Poland and Italy, after being “rescued” from a circus. Director Jerzy Skolimowski is 84 years old and this could be his last film as director. However, Poland has been nominated four times in the past twelve years and they really want a nomination. “EO” has received positive reviews, but they aren’t necessarily as good as some other Polish films out there this year, including “Fools”, “Fucking Bornholm” and “Sonata”, which all played at Karlovy Vary, “Woman on the Roof” (Tribeca), or any of several new films scheduled to premiere at the Gdynia Polish Film Festival in September, including “Filip”, “Johnny”, “Orleta” or “Below the Surface”.  While I do suspect that “EO” will get this, it’s not at all a sure thing. Rounding out the Top Five: “Below the Surface”, a submarine thriller set during WWII, “Sonata”, about a hearing-impaired musical prodigy, “Orleta” about a school trying to resist the Nazi invasion of their town,  and “Fools”, a mother-son drama.

19.   ROMANIA- “RMN” Romania typically goes with the obvious choice and rarely surprises. They also tend to prefer films by well-known and established (male) directors (they haven’t chosen a female-helmed film since 1973). All this points to “RMN” by Cristian Mungiu (“4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days”, shortlisted for “Beyond the Hills”) being selected after it was nominated for the Palme d’Or this year. It’s topic- hostility against immigrants in a small Transylvania town- is also a topical choice. Three other films- “Metronom” (Cannes Un Certain Regard), about a young defector and his girlfriend in Communist-era Romania, “Immaculate” (Venice), about a young woman in rehab, and “Miracle” (Venice), a thriller about a nun who goes missing- wouldn’t entirely shock, but I think “RMN” is safe.

20.  RUSSIA- “Nuremberg” I’m not sure if Russia will be competing this year. Since they began their brutal invasion of their neighbors in Ukraine, they’ve been banned from a variety of cultural and sporting competitions (though it appears they are still invited to the Oscars). Russia and their Soviet predecessors have only missed one year since 1971 (1993, soon after the USSR fell apart) and they’ve been shortlisted five of the past eight years. If Russia does send a film, I have a feeling they will want to be strategic. They’re unlikely to pick a nationalist epic as they often do, and are more likely to send something apolitical or something showing them in a more positive light. If they go simply by critical acclaim, they’ll choose “Captain Volkonogov Escaped” (Venice 2021) but this anti-Stalin thriller set in 1938 probably parallels too much to Putin (which is exactly what the directors of the Karlovy Vary Film Festival said when they were criticized for screening a Russian film). “Nuremberg” is a thriller scheduled for release in November, set against the backdrop of the post-WWII Nuremberg trials when the U.S. and USSR were still allies. If they want to show a U.S. connection, there’s also “First Oscar”, the backstory of how a Russian documentary won the first-ever Best Documentary Feature in 1943, during WWII, or Syria-set action movie “Infiltration” which shows U.S. and Russian forces working together, and has already been bought for a U.S. remake. U.S.-based Oscar nominee Sergei Bodrov (“Mongol” which he earned for Kazakhstan) has a new (apolitical) drama “Breathe Easy”, about a man struggling with stuttering, while “Nika”, about a Soviet-era poetess won Best Breakthrough Performance at SXSW. If they want a costume drama, they have “Land of Legends”, a big-budget action movie set in the 15^th century, “Amanat”, set in the exotic North Caucasus in the 19^th century, or “December” about defectors in the early 20^th century. If they want something completely apolitical, they have “Non-Orphanage” about the revolt of a group of orphans, or “The One”, about the sole survivor of a plane crash. It’s a confusing race…and they may not even enter. My predictions for Russia’s Top 5: “Nuremberg”, “The One”, “Amanat”, “First Oscar” and “Captain Volkonogov”.  

21.   SERBIA- “Darkling” Serbia has a tight race this year and it all depends on what kind of film they want to send. Serbia produces some wonderful films but, unfortunately, the Serbian Academy tends to send nationalistic films about Serbian history about 50% of the time. For example, two years ago Serbia was hotly tipped for a nomination with “Father”, but they sent a film about Serbs suffering during World War II concentration camps (which was also supposed to be good…but not enough for a nomination). At the same time, they tend to steer away from controversial topics like LGBT issues- like when they picked “When Day Breaks” over crowdpleaser “Parada” in 2011. All of this is bad news for the best-reviewed Serbian film of the year, “As Far As I Can Walk” (Best Picture, Karlovy Vary 2021 & Serbia’s national SOFEST festival), about African refugees, but Variety says it’s mostly in English so we’ll forgive them. So, what are the Serbian frontrunners? If they want to go nationalist, it’s likely to be “Darkling”, highlighting the suffering of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo after Serbia unsuccessfully tried to ethnically cleanse the region of Muslim Albanians, “The Storm”, about 1995 battles between Serbs and Croats, or the lighter “Once Upon A Time in Serbia”, a well-reviewed period comedy-drama set in the years following World War II. If they want a festival favorite (and they sent one last year for the first time in years), they could go with “Working Class Heroes” (Berlinale 2022), about a group of construction workers trying to get their salaries from corrupt bosses. I think a better choice would be “Cutting”, a raucous comedy-drama focused around an uncomfortable family reunion or “Trail of the Beast”, a murder mystery set in Communist times. Dark horse: “How I Learned to Fly” was a huge critical and box-office hit, although it's primarily a film for children and families. “Heavens Above” was my original pick, but it was released in November 2021, making it eligible. My prediction for Serbia’s Top Three: “Darkling”, “Once Upon A Time in Serbia”, and- the film I’m rooting for- “Cutting”.  

22.  SLOVAKIA- “Victim” Slovakia has laid low during the pandemic. For the past two years, Slovak film industry professionals have been working primarily on minority co-productions with the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European countries. However, a new slew of films are scheduled to premiere in 2022. The most likely contender is “Victim”, which has just been selected for the Venice Film Festival. It’s about a Ukrainian woman living in a small Czech town whose son reports being attacked by a group of Roma. She rallies the whole town to her son’s defense…before becoming suspicious about her son’s story. If it’s not that, then I expect it will be “Plastic Symphony”, a family drama about two brothers by documentarian Juraj Lehotsky, or witchcraft drama “Nightsiren”, but it’s difficult since none of these three films have been released yet. The same goes for their other contenders, “Piargy” (about the Antichrist being born in 1939), “The Chambermaid” (a period drama about the friendship between two girls from opposite social classes), “The Cathedral” (a Spanish-language documentary) and “Invalid” (which sounds like a remake of Les Intouchables). 

23.  SLOVENIA- “Bitch, A Derogatory Term for a Woman” This millennial dramedy with an odd title swept the Slovenian Film Awards last year, defeating five other films (a robust number considering the pandemic), including last year’s submission “Sanremo”. Focusing on a hard-drinking, swearing female artist in Ljubljana, it might not do well here but it is certainly the most popular Slovenian choice. There is also a very good chance they could send “My Vesna” (Berlinale 2022), a more traditionally Oscary film. However, the film is set in Australia by a Slovenian-Australian director so perhaps they won’t consider it….or maybe Australia would claim it? Dark horses: upcoming road movie “Riders” (set in 1999) and (attempted) murder mystery “Inventory”.

24.  UKRAINE- “Klondike” Some countries facing war and conflict take a break from cultural competitions. Not Ukraine. They have sought to use Ukrainian artists and athletes to highlight the plight of Ukrainians suffering from the Russian invasion. Ukraine has a surprising number of films at festivals this year (I wonder if that will continue next year?) and they’ll definitely be competing.  Last year, they announced a shortlist of five films. This year, I think that list will include festival favorites “Butterfly Vision” (Cannes), “How is Katia?” (Locarno), “Klondike” (Berlinale, Sundance), and “Pamfir” (Cannes) plus maybe “The Narrow Bridge” or documentaries “Boney Piles” or “A House Made of Splinters”. In the end, I think “Klondike”, about a family living on the Russian-Ukrainian border during the 2014 invasion, has the critical acclaim and subject matter to be the Ukrainian submission. Expect “Pamfir” to come second.