EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time....Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly.

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania's unique tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran, who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. Albania doesn't have anything else that would be serious enough to send so this should be an easy choice.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a French co-production about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, but who learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film using words like “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”.....in other words, very, very mixed......Director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the national Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community that performs Shakespeare. The film is directed by Inna Sahakyan who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas...but “Taghiyev: Oil” was quite good and definitely the best Azerbaijani submission I've seen so far. The first two Taghiyev films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the final two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick the concluding chapter - “Taghiyev IV: School” - which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch Azerbaijan's first school for girls, over the objections of backwards Islamic clerics. The third film ("Sona") is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the four films are produced by the daughter of the President....which is another reason I'm pretty sure they'll submit this year. 

BELARUS- “One for Two” Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott of 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return this year. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film this year (“The Black Castle”) but it was released too early to compete. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who courageously died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious of the two. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions and is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to local hit film “Father’s Last Wish”, which was released in 2022. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. So, I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy definitely has a few favorite directors that they just love. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights” (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners on paper. But both of these very prolific directors have had films that weren’t selected so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order”, and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main film festival/award ceremonies. “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four films weren’t eligible), “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival, while last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  I think Komandarev will get this for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile, although it’s “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, that has the best reviews of the year. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter) “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German production.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), while Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score), plus raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it's the only one that got screened at a major festival (Locarno 2025). It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia, is about an insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films had registered to join the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all, the Czechs should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) is a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece and is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a Saturday night "comfort watch" than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year so they're comfortable with the subject matter. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will push “If Pigeons” over the finish line. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone (I'm pretty sure I won't....), then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. Their most likely submission is “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret (seedy?) side of Tallinn, the prettiest of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” At first glance, Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and many probably feel that director Aleksandre Koberidze is “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors are also in contention- Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very, very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, which is a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”, but the other two films have much better reviews. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili (one of my favorite directors) has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili (who I've had the pleasure of  meeting at a screening of "Blind Dates") was the director who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (also a very good film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: the upcoming “Tear Gas”, about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, which was just announced for a Locarno sidebar.

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, multilingual (English, German and Cantonese) “Silent Friend” (Venice 2025), and soon-to-premiere “Ground Floor” (Venice 2026), which is actually in Hungarian. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars and tends to prefer late releases. Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will do the right thing and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if the committee decides that more than 50% of the film is foreign-language. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” the reaction from Venice before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 - getting shortlisted once - before abruptly quitting the competition, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed "Exile", my favorite Kosovar submission, in 2020). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner!) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovar selection committee bothers to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue” Latvia will be difficult to predict. Previously submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing Latvian language film of all time) are competing against the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is absolutely not a majority Latvian film...but it could be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot. Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language directors....Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But because "Minotaur" seems like a long shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive, PC U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably going to be “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team, versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of Latvian independence in the 90s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in most major categories at the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh, Blood, Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at artsy Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So, the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War” means it will probably be going to the Oscars. "Divorce" is a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which directly affects their future plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll be selected easily this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature doc (about fungus!) “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards this year, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers; “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern-day teenagers faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’; and “17” (Berlinale Perspectives), about teenaged girls faced with sexual violence. This one is tough and all three films would make excellent submissions. Manchevski has been picked four times before, but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them.

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024 when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit …but I think they’ll return this year since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist. But "Transit Times" was produced by Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, so I wouldn't count that out. 

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a good year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century wars with the Ottoman Turks. I think the size and scope (and costumes and production design) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks more interesting to me. “Otter”, which could be hurt by the fact that it has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are predicting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and it's absolutely true that he probably will get it. These days, choosing a “visible” film is more important than choosing the best one. The German-language “Fatherland” is Pawlikowski's first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a shoo-in….and I believe “Wild Wild East” (soon to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. You can count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films eligible this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but likely won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be getting out the stopwatch to count English words in order to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve seen people online swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since "Fjord" (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if and only if it’s not in English) so Romania can now relax and choose another film. Their four main options are “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….although “Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, is more serious than his earlier submissions (though still reportedly very theatrical). I’m going to predict that this year Romania will be of those countries that sends a new and largely untested film. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. It's due to premiere in Locarno this month. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transit Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu (see MOLDOVA).

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” I have no doubts that Russia will boycott the Oscars again this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” got it instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into an ambush/trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here”, and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….They opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those competing for Russia this year.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt. Last year saw only two candidates submitted….As a result, an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training exercises in their community, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend completely on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee, and which can prove a cinematic release. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers say is incredibly emotionally moving.

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with smaller film industries...). Since 2014, all but three submitted directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who meets a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At”, a based-on-a-true-story drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards) or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is both their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars thus far. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though I suspect that one will be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that will be released soon- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters” and “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time to shake up the Slovenian race?

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance to Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards (the Golden Dzygas) resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian 'space trucker' who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but who then receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? "Universe" did beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director at the Dzygas. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO” with Isabelle Huppert)! These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees” (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5. 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR EASTERN EUROPE (24 countries)

So it’s that time of year again. Over the next three months, over 90 countries from around the world will be selecting their favorite films. This year’s qualification dates are December 1-October 31…and it appears that AMPAS has gotten rid of the pandemic-era rule that films can qualify with a release in another country. This is sad for countries that have very problems with censorship or countries with few cinemas. There is also a new rule requiring selection committees to contain more filmmakers and less government officials…but this isn’t going to make countries like China or Iran select dissident films.  

Last year I saw 71 of the 93 submissions…..Most were good, few were outstanding or terrible. None of my six favorite films (Armenia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine) got nominated….as usual. I’m working on a post about last year’s films while also trying to find one or two more to watch. 

But for now, here are my predictions for the 24 countries from Eastern Europe. 

1. ALBANIA- “Luna Park”  Florenc Papas was selected three years ago for “Open Door”, and he’ll probably represent Albania again with “Luna Park”, co-starring Nik Xhelilaj, one of Albania’s biggest stars, who has returned home after spending most of the last ten years making films in Germany and Turkey. “Luna Park” is about a mother and son caught in an outbreak of Albanian civil unrest during the 1990s.

2. ARMENIA- “Light Drops” Armenia deserved an Oscar nomination (and possible win?) last year for beautiful animated documentary “Aurora’s Sunrise”. This year, I predict they send “Light Drops”, a period drama about how the country suffered during the difficult days after the collapse of the USSR. However, Armenia often sends documentaries…so they could send “5 Dreamers and a Horse”, about the dreams and aspirations of diverse a diverse group of Armenians, or perhaps “Tonratun”, about a family of women discussing current events while making bread together as a family. It was the only Armenian feature at the Golden Apricot Film Festival this year. Another documentary- “Landshaft”- has seen more festival play but is handicapped by a German director, while U.S. co-production “Amerikatsi” was released too early.

3. AZERBAIJAN- “Cold as Marble” Azerbaijan has several options this year, but release dates are confusing and local films often have major difficulties getting into local cinemas dominated by Turkish, Russian and Hollywood fare. I planned to predict “Maryam” because it was directed by Elchin Musaoglu who also made “Nabat”, probably Azerbaijan’s highest-profile Oscar submission to date. The Azerbaijani Academy can be cliquey and Musaoglu is a respected filmmaker who has been picked before. But “Maryam”, about a woman who returns from the U.S. to take care of her ailing father, hasn’t premiered yet. Azerbaijan also has two festival entries- “Sermon to the Fish” (Locarno/Busan) by prolific young arthouse director Hilal Baydarov, and tragicomic “Cold as Marble” (Tallinn Black Nights), about a man whose father returns home unexpectedly from prison. I personally would recommend they send the well-reviewed “Marble” so that’s my prediction for now. There’s also custody drama “Banu”, which could be Azerbaijan’s first submission directed by a woman. 

4. BELARUS- “Summer of ‘89” Belarus sent two films to the Oscars in the mid 90s, and then three more from 2018-2020 when the country was slowly opening up to Europe….But that all ended when Belarus rigged elections in 2020 and supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Belarus will presumably join the Russian boycott, but if the local opposition can form a selection committee, we could see Soviet-era coming-of-age drama “Summer of ‘89”, which did get screened in Belarus in late 2022 (though it didn’t get a regular cinematic release) or docu-drama “A Date in Minsk”, which has a young couple playing fictionalized versions of themselves. 

5. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Excursion” The Sarajevo Film Festival competition lineup was just announced and “Excursion” (which also got a sidebar berth in Locarno) was the only local Bosnian feature on the list…It’s about how a student’s lie during "Truth or Dare" ends up wreaking havoc in her small community (sounds like “The Hunt”?) As of July 25, the local “BH Film” programme hasn’t been posted. Bosnia also has two other options by talented, previously submitted directors. From Pjer Zalica, we have “May Labor Day”, an old-fashioned drama (Cineuropa calls it “anachronistic”) about a man who returns home from abroad to find his father has disappeared; rumor has it he’s been arrested for war crimes. Ahmed Imamovic (who directed my favorite Bosnian film, “Go West”) has “Die Before Death”, a mystery-thriller about an abortion doctor. “Excursion” should get this, with “Die Before Death” in second place.

6. BULGARIA- “Blaga’s Lessons” Poor Bulgaria…”In the Heart of the Machine” richly deserved an Oscar nod last year but somehow missed out. This year should be an easy choice. “Blaga’s Lessons” won the Grand Prize at Karlovy Vary and director Stepan Komandarev got Bulgaria’s only shortlist spot (in 2009). “Blaga” is a senior citizen who gets cheated out of her life savings, who quickly gives up on her morality to become a heartless scammer herself. Bulgaria hasn’t picked Komandarev’s last two movies, so it’s not a sure thing….but “Blaga” looks like one of the most exciting films of the year so I’m confident they’ll pick it if it gets a domestic release by October 31. If not, “The Good Driver” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia International Film Festival, “The Art of Falling” won at the Bulgarian Academy Awards, and “Spring Equinox” won the Jury Prize at the Golden Rose Film Festival (“Mother” won Best Film but that was released last year). The director of last year’s brilliant prison drama “In the Heart of the Machine” also has a new film- “Trust Game”, as does Milko Lazarov (previously selected for “Aga”) who has xenophobia drama “The Herd”. Also, senior director Georgi Djulgerov- who has never been selected- has period drama “Memoir of a Betrayal”.  I expect to see all seven of these films on the Bulgarian shortlist, with “Blaga” easily winning the nod, “Art of Falling” coming second, and migrant dramas (a popular subject with the Bulgarian Academy) “Good Driver” and “The Herd” in third and fourth.

7. CROATIA- “The Uncle” The Croatians have a wide-open race. 14 new films competed at the Pula Film Festival this month, which announced its winners on July 23. Documentary “Bigger Than Trauma”, about women sexually assaulted during the wars of the 1990s, won Best Croatian Film, while four other films (“Safe Place”, which went to the Oscars last year, plus drama “Traces” , animated film “Cricket & Antoinette” and comedy “Carbide”) won three awards each. Croatian films often take months (or even a year) to hit local cinemas so not all Pula award winners will be eligible. Croatia often makes unpredictable choices for the Oscars; while I’ve loved their last three choices, most critics seem to disagree with me (and with the Croatian Academy).  I’m predicting quirky uncomfortable Haneke-esque thriller “The Uncle”, which won Best Screenplay at Pula last year, and which feels very much like the same vibe as Croatia’s recent picks “Tereza37” and “Extracurricular”….AMPAS probably won’t like it. I have rape documentary (and Pula winner) “Bigger Than Trauma” in second place and “Hotel Pula”, about a forbidden romance between an older Bosnian man and an underaged Croatian teen, in 3^rd. Both of these came in Top 5 with Pula audiences (“Trauma” in 2^nd and “Hotel” in 5^th), but it was children’s animated film “Cricket & Antoinette”, about the ant & the grasshopper fairy tale, that came in #1. Croatia has a strong tradition of animation but it would be an odd choice for the Oscars, so I have “Cricket” fourth and Pula premiere “Good Times, Bad Times”, about a man at an unusual restaurant, in 5^th place. Director Nevio Marasovic has been passed over several times and lead actor Radko Polič died shortly after making the movie, so it would be a sentimental choice. Dark horse: 95-year old Veliko Bulajic has the yet-to-be-screened war drama “Escape to the Sea” but the Croatian Academy tends to like young, edgy filmmakers and I expect “Escape” may be more competitive for Montenegro (See MONTENEGRO).

8. CZECH REPUBLIC- “We Have Never Been Modern” The Czechs used to be one of the powerhouses in this category….but this year marks twenty years since their last Oscar nomination. They’ve been mostly quiet this year (or two) but they had three really intriguing options by fresh, young directors at Karlovy Vary. The most likely choice is “We Have Never Been Modern” a mystery-drama about a pregnant woman who finds a dead baby with intersex organs abandoned in her small traditional community. It’s one of only two Czech films in contention for the Crystal Globe, and that’s where the Czech Republic finds its Oscar submissions roughly half the time. But the Czech Academy has an independent streak and I could see them picking either buzzy new sci-fi flick “Restore Point”, a murder mystery about a future in which you can “reboot” a person who has just died, or “She Came at Night”, a bizarre but very well reviewed horror-comedy-drama-thriller about a mother-in-law whose visit threatens to wreck a marriage (it looks like “War of the Roses”). “Restore” already has a U.S. distribution deal and Variety says it’s primed for an English-language remake. Czech Republic has been absent from the major festivals this year so those are the three frontrunners but there are also a couple of potential dark horses: “Two Words as the Key”, about a diverse group of people hiking in the Himalayas will premiere in late July; “A Sensitive Person”, the second Czech film competing in Karlovy Vary, though it seems less accessible; “Great Nothing”, a documentary about the Czech response to COVID-19, and “Tony, Shelly and the Magic Light”, an animated family film- the Czechs are rightfully proud of their animation….Making the Czech race more confusing is the announcement this week that Agnieszka Holland’s migrant drama “The Green Border” is finished and premiering in Venice. Holland is Polish but her last film represented the Czech Republic.  I predict “Modern”, followed by “Restore Point”, “She Came at Night”, “Green Border” (unclear if it’s eligible) and “Two Words”

9.       ESTONIA- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” Estonia has had a fairly weak year, and I predict they’ll send their first ever documentary submission- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” (Sundance, Best Documentary Director) about women baring secrets in the country’s famous saunas. Ironically, neighboring Finland sent a similar film (about men in saunas) in 2010. If Estonia wants to send a fiction feature, it will probably be time-travel drama “Stairway to Heaven”. Mystery thriller “Melchior the Apothecary: The Executioner’s Daughter” is the third in a big-budget trilogy by a popular director, but they didn’t send either of the first two films….so I doubt they’ll send this one either. Three upcoming films (“8 Views of Lake Biwa”, “Dark Paradise” and “One-Dimensional Man”) could also seriously contend if they get released by the deadline, especially “One-Dimensional Man”.  

10.   GEORGIA- “Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry” Georgia has quite a competitive race with the two winners of the National Competition at the Tbilisi Film Festival (1^st Place “A Room of My Own” and runner-up “The Drummer”) competing against three films by previously submitted directors (“And the Sun Rises”, “Beautiful Helen” and “Resting Samurai”) plus the Georgian representatives at Berlin/Sarajevo (“Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry”) Karlovy Vary (“Citizen Saint”) and Rotterdam (“Drawing Lots”). On paper, “A Room of My Own” and “Beautiful Helen” look strongest….”A Room of My Own” is the highest-profile of the eight films, won Best Georgian Film in Tbilisi and has gotten very strong reviews for its story of two female roommates during COVID….but queer themes have upset some in the conservative country and I’m not certain it got a domestic release which is once again required. “Beautiful Helen” is by the director of “Corn Island” (which I hated), the last Georgian film to be shortlisted…..but reviews have not been good enough to send it. So, I’m predicting that the Berlinale label and its recent selection for Sarajevo propels “Blackbird”, about a 48-year virgin whose life is the subject of gossip in her provincial village, to the top and will represent Georgia. I have “Citizen Saint” in second, and controversial “A Room of My Own” in third place. Rounding out the Top Five: “Drawing Lots”, a B&W mystery-drama and “Resting Samurai”, a family soap opera.  

11. HUNGARY- “Semmelweis” Hungary’s selection committee has made odd choices the past two years, choosing a spooky horror flick and a patriotic movie about taxi drivers over films that had much, much stronger reviews. So far this year, Hungary only has two strong possibilities- dystopian anime “White Plastic Sky” (Berlinale Encounters), set in post-apocalyptic Hungary in the year 2123, and  “Six Weeks” (Sarajevo, Tallinn Black Nights), about a young woman struggling with her decision to put her baby up for adoption. But they have three strong upcoming films, including two by the directors of important Oscar submissions. Historical drama “Semmelweis” is a biopic/true story of a 19^th century doctor who fought official bureaucracy to help defeat an epidemic that was killing babies in 1847 Vienna. Director Lajos Koltai was hotly tipped for an Oscar nomination for Holocaust drama “Fateless”…but didn’t get it. Barnabas Toth was somehow shortlisted for glorified TV movie “Those That Remained” a few years ago (another Holocaust drama, but far inferior to “Fateless”), and he has a baity new thriller about a train escaping Communist-era Hungary in 1956, called “Master Game”. Last, “Explanation for Everything”, the story of a graduation exam that causes a national scandal told from three different perspectives, was just announced for Venice. Hungary likes to pick last-minute releases, and “Semmelweis” is scheduled for a fall release so that’s my pick. I have “Six Weeks” as runner-up, and “Explanation” in third.

12. KOSOVO- “The Land Within” Kosovo is highly likely to send Swiss co-production “The Land Within”, about a Kosovar who leaves his home to Switzerland to visit a dying relative in his home village where most men were killed during the war. It’s a slow-burn mystery that won Best First Feature at Tallinn Black Nights. Bota Jonë (Venice), directed by 22-year old French-Kosovar actress Luana Bajrami, probably won’t premiere in Kosovo in time.

13.   LATVIA- “Soviet Milk” Latvia is confusing because their two best prospects have tentative release dates in November 2023, although this year’s cut-off for the International Feature category is October 31. I’m pretty sure Maris Martinsons’ 19^th century patriotic drama “In the Land That Sings” would win this easily….but I believe it will compete next year. Ditto Aigars Grauba’s musical biopic “Jumprava”, though that might be too Latvian to resonate with international audiences. So, that leaves “Soviet Milk”, about a woman doctor who refuses to nurse her child due as a result of depression caused by Soviet rule, and “Maria’s Silence”, a historical drama. “Maria” looks stronger but it’s release date is still TBD so it’s “Soviet Milk” by default. Dark horse: Ukraine documentary “Eastern Front” (Berlinale) was listed as a Latvian production, despite its two Ukrainian co-directors.

14.   LITHUANIA- “Mariupolis 2” The favorite from Lithuania is “Slow”, a romance about a dancer and a sign language interpreter that won Best Director (Fiction) at the Sundance Film Festival. But last year I predicted Lithuania would select “Mariupolis 2”, a documentary whose director was killed by Russian bombings while filming in Ukraine. It posthumously won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and Best Lithuanian Film at the Vilnius International Film Festival. Lithuania sends documentaries about one-third of the time (more than any other country) so it’s very possible this could go forward this year. Three films that did well at the national Silver Crane Awards are also strong possibilities, namely “Remember to Blink” (Best Picture, Director), an interesting adoption drama, “Parade” (Best Screenplay, Actress), a comedy-drama about a long-divorced couple thrown together in an effort to get their divorce recognized by the Catholic church, and “The Poet” (Best Actor, Supporting Actor), a Communist-era historical drama. I hate picking the same film two years in a row, but I suspect it’s “Mariupolis 2”, with “Slow” in second place and “Parade” in third.

15. MACEDONIA- “M” It’s a confusing race in Macedonia as most of their contenders haven’t premiered yet. Three Macedonian films were at the Cannes Film market: “The Business of Pleasure”, a thriller about human trafficking, “M”, a dystopian sci-fi drama about a global pandemic (it started production before COVID), and “Things Unsaid”, about a teenager whose visit ends up destabilizes a happy marriage. But Macedonia got an Oscar nod for documentary “Honeyland”, and “The Love Room”, about two women patiently awaiting conjugal visits with their imprisoned husbands, looks very good. And just this week, “Housekeeping for Beginners”, by Australian-Macedonian director Goran Stolevski (“You Won’t Be Alone”), got a Venice Horizons berth. Lastly, there’s horror-drama “Piargy” by Ivo Trajkov, who has represented Macedonia three times. It was made in Slovakia (and shortlisted but not selected by Slovakia last year) but could be eligible for Macedonia this year. I think this will be an extremely tight race between “M”, and “Love Room”, with “Housekeeping for Beginners” not far behind.

16. MOLDOVA- “Varvara” Last year, Moldova returned to the Oscars after an eight-year absence with black comedy “Carbon”. The same production company has a new film- “Varvara”- out in 2023, about an honest (and agnostic) man with a moral dilemma- he is offered generous bribes and kickbacks to do a project that would destroy a priceless religious icon. It’s another dark comedy and one of the films I most want to see from the region this year.

17.   MONTENEGRO- “Children” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 600,000) joined the Oscars in 2013. Despite their tiny film industry, they’ve only missed one year since….This year, I predict they’ll send “Children” (aka “Face of Honour”), a really intriguing moral dilemma drama about a boy that seeks refuge with a family, who are then threatened with death and ruin if they don’t turn him in to the mob. But don’t count out “Escape to the Sea”, by Yugoslavian director Veljko Bulajic, about the sole German survivor of a WWII battle, wandering the Yugoslav countryside. Why do I call Bulajic Yugoslavian? Well, Bulajic represented Yugoslavia SEVEN TIMES between 1959 and 1983 (and independent Croatia once), netting an Oscar nod for “The Battle of Neretva” over 50 years ago in 1970. Yes, he’s 95 years old and has links to both Croatia and Montenegro, though the film itself is a majority Croatian production. Neither film has been screened yet and it’s possible Croatia may claim “Escape”.

18. POLAND- “Green Border” Recently, Poland has the best record in Eastern Europe, with four nominations (including one win) in the past ten years; all were decent films but I probably wouldn’t have nominated any of them. But 2023 has been a pretty quiet year for them. First of all, I assume Cannes Grand Prix winner “Zone of Interest” (in German with a UK director) will contend for the United Kingdom. So, I predict Poland will choose either “Filip”, a WWII drama about a Polish Jew who successfully hides his origins while watching friends and family killed or sent to camps, or Agnieszka Holland’s new migrant drama “Green Border”, which was just selected for the Venice Film Festival….but which could easily compete for the Czech Republic instead. I’m going with Oscar nominee Holland but I’m not confident. “Filip” won 2^nd Prize at the Polish Film Festival last year (the winner- “Silent Twins”, starring Black Panther vaccine denier Letitia Wright, was 100% in English) and has gotten strong reviews though it would be a fairly “small” choice for Poland.  Poland could potentially pick some late-arriving film that I’ve never heard of, perhaps from the Polish Film Festival in September. My picks for the rest of Poland’s Top 6: innovative animated film “The Peasants” set in the early 20^th century, “Bread & Salt”, about a small town dealing with violence against migrants, “Scarborn”, an 18^th century costume drama about Poles fighting the Russians, and “The Magic Number”, a difficult intellectual drama about a mathematician, directed by 84-year old Krzysztof Zanussi, who has repped Poland four times (and Poland sometimes picks films by “senior” directors). A Poland film watcher assured me this will go to innovative animé “The Peasants”. 

19.   ROMANIA- “Do Not Expect Much From the End of the World” Romania seemed to have a two-way race between two upcoming dark comedies by acclaimed national directors- “MMXX” by Cristi Puiu, and “Do Not Expect Much From the End of the World” by Radu Jude, which has just been announced to debut in Locarno. Puiu has been picked twice (“Death of Mr. Lazarescu”, “Sieranevada”) and Jude has been picked three times (“Aferim!”, “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”, “I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians”). But “MMXX” just announced a November release date in Romania making it eligible next year….so Jude should get this easily. “Do Not Expect Much” is an absurdist black comedy about a production assistant seeking to hire an actor for a workplace safety video. She ends up hiring a paralyzed man who was actually injured by her own company. But let’s be careful….Last year was also considered a two-way race (“RMN” vs. “Metronome”) and Romania chose an obscure, unheralded drama (“Immaculate”) instead….so we could see a surprise from “Day of the Tiger” (Sarajevo), about a female veterinarian confronting sexism, “Freedom” (Sarajevo/Venice), set during the violent 1989 Romanian Revolution, or “Familiar”, a new drama about uncovering family secrets, directed by Calin Peter Netzer, winner of the 2013 Berlin Film Festival. I’ve heard people mention “To the North” (Venice) and “Men of Deeds” (Best Picture, National Film Awards) but “North” seems to be mostly in English and “Deeds” opened a week before the qualifying date. I’m sticking with “Do Not Expect Much”, but “Freedom” could easily surprise if it wins awards at Venice or Sarajevo.

20. RUSSIA- “Pravednik” First of all, NO, I don’t think Russia will submit a film. Russia boycotted last year in protest of….um….their own government invading a peaceful neighboring country?! There was actually quite a controversy. The President of the Russian Selection Committee, Oscar nominee Pavel Chukhrai, confirmed that Russia would participate in spite of the war, but then the Russian Film Academy overruled him and said Russia would boycott the awards. Chukhrai resigned in protest. On the off chance that Russia chooses to participate, they’re going to have to choose a film that it would be difficult to criticize….So, for the sake of completion, I’m putting down “Pravednik”, a WWII movie about Jewish Soviet forces rescuing hundreds of civilians under Nazi attack. “Nina”, a co-production with Western-oriented Georgia, represented Russia in Shanghai and tells an apolitical story of a happily married woman who goes to visit her ex-lover on his deathbed. Nazi trial drama “Nuremberg”, ethnic Buryat drama “Dukh Baykala”, ethnic Yakut drama “Don’t Bury Me Without Ivan”, and Moscow Film Festival entry “The Edge of the Broken Moon” could also contend in the unlikely event Russia chose to enter.

21.   SERBIA- “Lost Country” Serbia used to send a lot of intriguing, jet-black comedies about Serbian daily life, but recently they’ve leaned heavily on historical films about past glories, or films focusing on grievances against Serbs (or both). These aren’t bad films, but American audiences aren’t so interested in learning about Serbia’s role in World War I. So, while I’m hoping they send comedy-drama “The Beheading of John the Baptist”, about family secrets revealed at a dinner party, I worry it may be jingoistic “Oluja” (The Storm) about the ill treatment suffered by Croatian Serbs during the ethnic wars of the 1990s. But my prediction- “Lost Country”- combines a little of both. It got great reviews at Cannes Critics Week for its story of a boy who slowly realizes his beloved mother is a part of Milosevic’s murderous regime and was recently selected for Sarajevo. Serbia has a number of other good options including low-budget indie darling “Where the Road Leads”, Cold War thriller “Guardians of the Formula” (Locarno/Sarajevo), and prisoner redemption drama “Indigo Kristal”. I think that “Mouth Full of Earth” (which won Best Serbian Film at the FEST Film Festival) and “Have You Seen This Woman?” (Venice Critics Week) are too weird to be serious contenders. The wild card is “Heroes of Halyard”, about Serbian forces helping a group of stranded American POWs during World War II; this would be a perfect combination of what Serbia likes (historical dramas showcasing Serbia) while also making it relatable to Hollywood. But the film has not release date and may have too much English anyway so I’m excluding it… But if eligible, it could seriously challenge “Lost Country”. For now, I predict “Lost Country”, with “Guardians of the Formula” in second, “John the Baptist” optimistically in third, followed by “Indigo”, and “Oluja” (sigh).

22.   SLOVAKIA- “Plastic Symphony” Slovak film production is back up after COVID, and no less than three previously submitted directors (Martin Sulik, who has been selected seven times, plus Juraj Lehotsky, and Mira Fornay) have new films. Add a sumptuous lesbian costume drama and an acclaimed documentary in Spanish, and the Slovaks have an evenly-matched five-way race. Alphabetically, we have “The Cathedral”, a documentary about a Spanish madman (visionary?) who spends 60 years building a cathedral from scratch, “The Chambermaid” (Tallinn Black Nights), the lesbian costume drama, “The Horse”, a comedy about a man who randomly finds a horse living in his second-floor apartment, “Plastic Symphony”, about a celebrated musician who reappears after five years secluded away from the public scene, and “She-Hero”, about a little girl looking for her lost bird, which won the Youth competition at Berlinale 2023. All of them have a chance. The Slovak Academy loves Sulik and documentaries, while “Chambermaid” has the best production values, “She-Hero” the awards, and “Plastic Symphony” the tone and subject matter to be selected. I’m predicting “Plastic Symphony”, followed by “She-Hero” and “The Cathedral”….but it’s gonna be close.

23.   SLOVENIA- “Riders” Low-budget road movie “Riders” premiered at Sarajevo last year and has flown under the radar, getting excellent reviews (Screen Daily called it “quietly excellent”) at various festivals and winning three awards at the Slovenian Film Awards late last year (it lost Best Picture to “Orchestra”, Slovenia’s Oscar submission last year). Its main competition comes from two co-productions that I believe are both eligible- “Moja Vesna” (Berlin 2022), a Slovenian immigrant family drama set in Australia, and “The Man Without Guilt”, set in the Italian-speaking Slovenia/Italy border area. Rounding out the Top Five options for Slovenia: “Wake Me”, the redemption tale of a far-right nationalist, and “Lunatic”, following 40 years in the life of a sailing family. 

24. UKRAINE- “Pamfir” Слава Україні! Slava Ukraïni! Ukraine’s film industry has defiantly continued to crank out an amazing quantity of fiction features and documentaries despite the Russian invasion. Cinemas somehow remain open. Critically acclaimed “Pamfir”, about a family man who resorts to crime to support his family, was considered a strong contender last year but it didn’t premiere in Ukrainian cinemas until 2023. It’s my pick for Ukraine but it’s by no means a sure thing as it faces stiff competition from “Luxembourg, Luxembourg” a road comedy about two Ukrainian twins who learn the father that abandoned them is dying in Luxembourg. Both films are nominated in the Big Three categories (Picture, Director and Screenplay) at the upcoming Ukrainian Oscars (against “Klondike”) which will be given out in August 2023.  “Butterfly Vision”, about a POW victim of sexual assault, got nominated in Picture and Screenplay but not Director, showing that it is well-liked but slightly behind the other two films. But the war has meant that some of the best films made in Ukraine are documentaries like “20 Days in Mariupol” (Sundance Audience Award; journalists reporting from the bombed city of Mariupol), “Iron Butterflies” (Sundance; the shooting down of MH17) and “We Will Not Fade Away” (Berlin; small town teenagers living through the current war). Unknown quantity: “Stepne”, the feature debut of a Cannes Palme d’Or Short Film winner, has just been announced for Locarno and “La Palisiada” has just been announced for Sarajevo. I predict “Pamfir”, followed by “Luxembourg” and “20 Days”. Best of luck Ukraine!