EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time....Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly.

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania's unique tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran, who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. Albania doesn't have anything else that would be serious enough to send so this should be an easy choice.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a French co-production about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, but who learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film using words like “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”.....in other words, very, very mixed......Director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the national Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community that performs Shakespeare. The film is directed by Inna Sahakyan who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas...but “Taghiyev: Oil” was quite good and definitely the best Azerbaijani submission I've seen so far. The first two Taghiyev films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the final two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick the concluding chapter - “Taghiyev IV: School” - which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch Azerbaijan's first school for girls, over the objections of backwards Islamic clerics. The third film ("Sona") is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the four films are produced by the daughter of the President....which is another reason I'm pretty sure they'll submit this year. 

BELARUS- “One for Two” Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott of 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return this year. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film this year (“The Black Castle”) but it was released too early to compete. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who courageously died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious of the two. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions and is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to local hit film “Father’s Last Wish”, which was released in 2022. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. So, I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy definitely has a few favorite directors that they just love. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights” (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners on paper. But both of them are very prolific and have had films that weren’t selected....so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order”, and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main precursor film festival/award ceremonies  - (1)- “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four films weren’t eligible), (2)- “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival; and (3)- last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  I think Komandarev will go to Hollywood this year for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile possibility, although “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, has even stronger reviews from critics. Komandarev richly deserved an Oscar nod for "Blaga's Lessons" just as Grozeva and Valchanov did for "Glory" back in 2017. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter) “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German production.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), while Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score), plus raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it's the only one that got screened at a major festival (Locarno 2025). It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will probably finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia, is about an insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films had registered to join the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all, the Czechs should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) is a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece and is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a Saturday night "comfort watch" than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year so they're comfortable with the subject matter. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will push “If Pigeons” over the finish line. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone (I'm pretty sure I won't....), then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. I'm pretty certain their submission will be “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret (seedy?) side of Tallinn, the prettiest of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Guria At first glance, Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and many probably feel that director Aleksandre Koberidze is “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors also have new films - Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was previously shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili is one of my favorite Eastern European directors and he made my favorite Georgian film "Street Days". He has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili (who I had the pleasure of  meeting at a screening of "Blind Dates") was the director who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (a great and highly underrated film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: “Tear Gas”, a politically polarizing film about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, recently premiered in a Locarno sidebar.  UPDATE: "Dry Leaf" is one of the worst films I've ever seen and I refuse to predict it. I actually truly believe the film is a colossal joke and that Aleksandre Koberidze made the film to make fun of international festivals and critics a la "The Emperor's New Clothes", daring them to watch the plotless, barely visible film (it was shot on an old iphone) for three hours and call it a work of art. And they did! Georgia must submit either "Supporting Role" or "Guria". 

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, multilingual (English, German and Cantonese) “Silent Friend” (Venice 2025), and soon-to-premiere “Ground Floor” (Venice 2026), which is actually in Hungarian. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars and tends to prefer late releases. Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will do the right thing and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if the committee decides that more than 50% of the film is foreign-language. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” the reaction from Venice before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 - getting shortlisted once - before abruptly quitting the competition, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed "Exile", my favorite Kosovar submission, in 2020). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner!) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovar selection committee bothers to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue” Latvia is difficult to predict this year. Previously submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing Latvian language film of all time) are competing against the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is absolutely not a majority Latvian film...but it could be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot. Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language directors....Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But because "Minotaur" seems like a long shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive, PC U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably going to be “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team, versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of Latvian independence in the 90s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in most major categories at the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh, Blood, Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at artsy Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So, the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War” means it will probably be going to the Oscars. "Divorce" is a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which directly affects their future plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll be selected easily this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature doc (about fungus!) “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards this year, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers; “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern-day teenagers faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’; and “17” (Berlinale Perspectives), about two teenaged friends dealing with the aftermath of a sexual assault. This one is tough! All three films would make excellent submissions. Manchevski has been picked four times before, but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them. I look forward to seeing all three. 

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024 when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit …but I think they’ll return this year since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist. But "Transit Times" was produced by Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, so I wouldn't count that out. 

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a great year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century wars with the Ottoman Turks. I think the size and scope (and costumes! and production design!) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks very interesting to me. “Otter”, which could be hurt by the fact that it has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are predicting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and it's absolutely true that he probably will get it. These days, choosing a “visible” film is more important than choosing the best one. The German-language “Fatherland” is Pawlikowski's first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a shoo-in….and I believe “Wild Wild East” (soon to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. You can count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films eligible this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but likely won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be getting out the stopwatch to count English words in order to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve heard some people swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since "Fjord" (starring Romania-born Sebastian Stan, and Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve) won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if it’s not in English). So Romania can now relax and choose another film. Their four main options are “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….“Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, seems more serious than his earlier submissions, though it's still reportedly very theatrical. I’m going to predict that this year Romania will be one of those countries that sends a new and largely untested film to the race. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. It's due to premiere in Locarno this month and it sounds like their best option. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transit Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu (see MOLDOVA).

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” I have no doubts that Russia will boycott the Oscars again this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” got it instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into an ambush/trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here”, and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….They opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those competing for Russia this year.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt. Last year saw only two candidates submitted….As a result, an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training exercises in their community, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend completely on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee, and which can prove a cinematic release. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers say is incredibly emotionally moving. Of the films I'm predicting from this region, it's probably the one I'm most excited to see. 

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with smaller film industries...). Since 2014, all but three submitted directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who meets a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At”, a based-on-a-true-story drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards) or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems highly likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is both their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars thus far. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though I suspect that one will be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that will be released soon- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters” and “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time to shake up the Slovenian race? I don't think so. 

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance to Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards (the Golden Dzygas) resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian 'space trucker' who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but who then receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? "Universe" did beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director at the Dzygas. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO” with Isabelle Huppert)! These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees” (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5. 

EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS:

I'm in the middle of an international move so I don't think I'll be able to make a full slate of predictions....but here are my picks for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe:  

1. Albania- “Waterdrop” Albania has had a quiet year and none of their major contenders have been released. Their submission could be any one of three upcoming films....but only if one or more of them gets a domestic release before September 30...and time is running out. Two of these are directors who have picked before- Robert Budina’s “Waterdrop” and Florenc Papas’ “Luna Park”...and they're joined by Pluton Vasi’s Mother Teresa film, “Dancing with the Shadows”. On the off chance that they all premiere in time, I give the edge to “Luna Park” (which I predicted last year) co-starring local star Nik Xhelilaj who rarely makes movies in Albania anymore. It’s about a mother and son facing civil unrest in the 1990s, which is a dramatically interesting subject. But an imminent release seems unlikely so I predict corruption drama “Waterdrop” is picked. However, it’s possible none of them will premiere, whereupon they’ll have to choose between two documentaries about Albanian cinema (“Cinema is Magic” and “Bekim Fehmiu”) and migrant drama “Okarina”, about a Kosovar family in the UK, which already have screened.  

2. Armenia- “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” Armenia celebrated its first-ever Oscar shortlist spot last year for the charming “Amerikatsi”, which won Best Picture at the 2024 National Film Awards. However, it lost Best Director and Best Screenplay to “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev”, a tragicomedy-drama about 1970s Soviet Armenia. So, I see that as the frontrunner, especially in a year where there were no Armenian features in the Main Competition at their national film festival (“Yasha” appeared at a festival sidebar).  Armenia makes a lot of documentaries and has selected docs for the Oscars twice. So, it’s possible they could send “1489”, about an MIA soldier because it won the 2023 International Documentary Festival Rotterdam, or “There Was, There Was Not”, by an Armenian-American director (like “Amerikatsi”) following the lives of four women in Nagorno-Karabakh before and after the 2023 war. If they premiere in time, upcoming dramas “Light Drops” (about the Communist era) or “Revival” (co-starring Armand Assante and Maia Morgenstern) could contend as well.

3. Azerbaijan- “Maryam” Azerbaijan has a fairly small film industry and they’ve sent nine films since entering the Oscar race for the first time in 2007 (53% of the time). Despite a number of Azerbaijani films at film festivals, their last submission was a 50-minute documentary about architecture that looked like a film you’d see playing on a loop at a museum, rather than in a cinema. Last year, they didn’t enter at all. This year, I’m predicting they send “Maryam”. Director Elchin Musaoglu was submitted in 2014 for “Nabat”, which is probably the closest Azerbaijan has ever come to making the Oscar shortlist. The film also has a U.S. connection since it follows an Azerbaijan woman who leaves her comfortable life in the USA to take care of her ailing father in her small, home village. They also have “Sermon to the Birds”, but prolific young director Hilal Baydarov has never been chosen before and “Sermon” has been less successful with critics than his other films.

4. Belarus- “Under the Grey Sky” Belarus returned to the Oscar competition from 2018-2020 but hasn’t sent any films since their allies in Russia began boycotting the Oscars in 2022 over the invasion of Ukraine Harmless filmmaking comedy “Kinoshniki” was the only local feature at the national Listapad Film Festival.  I’m sure they won’t send anything. If they somehow manage to form a selection committee in exile (Syria was allowed to do this once), then Polish co-production “Under the Grey Sky” and documentary “Motherland”, both of which have Belarusian directors, would be great choices.

5. Bosnia-Herzegovina- “My Late Summer” Danis Tanovic won the Oscar for “No Man’s Land” and Bosnia has sent three (out of four) of his subsequent Bosnian films to the Oscars (In 2021, I was shocked when they selected competent but unmemorable drama “White Fortress” instead of Tanovic’s “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”). So, with “My Late Summer” selected as the Opening Film at the 2024 Sarajevo Film Festival, that has automatically made Tanovic the frontrunner. “My Late Summer” is a dramedy about a woman visiting her extended family on a remote island, in order to help settle a family inheritance battle. Unlikely: Croatian co-production “Bosnian Pot”, premiered at last year’s Sarajevo Film Festival and I think it’s eligible this year….but the director is Croatian and it will be hard to beat Tanovic.

6. Bulgaria- “Windless” I think Bulgaria will be choosing between two grim dramas, both of which highlight how so many Bulgarians see their future abroad- “Windless” (Karlovy Vary) is about a migrant returning home to his economically depressed village; “Dyad”, which tied the brilliant “Blaga’s Lessons” for Best Bulgarian Film at last year’s Golden Rose Film Festival, is about a 16-year old girl trying to find a way to join her estranged mother in the USA. “Windless” is brand-new but its director was unexpectedly snubbed recently (for “German Lessons”) and it seems to have better reviews so that’s my pick. Three other options: “The Shameless” (Cannes), a lesbian drama made in India by a Bulgarian director, “Plague” set during the medieval Black Plague and made by a previously submitted director, and “Trap”, about a village plagued by a killer boar and nuclear waste. Out of the running: “Triumph”, starring Maria Bakalova, will premiere at the Toronto Film Festival but I don't expect it to get a cinematic release until next year; “The Black Sea”, about a black New Yorker stranded in Bulgarian, looks like it has too much English. Bulgaria won’t want to be disqualified again like in 2022.

7. Croatia-“Frka” For the past 25 years, every Croatian Oscar submission has been featured at the country’s national Pula Film Festival, although they don’t necessarily pick one of the big winners (In 2020, for the first time ever, they picked a movie that hadn’t won any awards at all). This year, there were eleven Croatian features at Pula. There were also three films from last year that got released in this Oscar eligibility year....that makes a total of 14 films. The big winner this year at Pula was “Celebration”, an abstract village drama set over two decades of Croatian history from 1926-1945. It won most of the main awards, including Best Picture, Critics Poll, Actor and Screenplay, but finished dead last among audience scores. Also winning major awards this year were period romance “The Holy Family” (Audience Award) and documentary “Our Children” (Best Director). I imagine they’ll also consider political thriller “Wrath of God”, comedy-thriller “Frka” (which almost won the Audience Award...though it finished last with critics), and relationship/domestic violence drama “Only When I Laugh” (Best Actress, Pula 2023). A very dark horse: “Bigger than Trauma” won Best Picture at Pula 2023...but was seemingly never released in cinemas. My prediction: the Croatian Academy usually chooses something with a dark sense of humor so I’m predicting a surprise win for gonzo thriller “Frka” which is likely to appeal to Western audiences more than the various films about Croatian culture and history. “Celebration” did so well at Pula and is so clearly the favorite that I have them in a very, very close second place, followed by “Holy Family”, “Wrath of God” and “Only When I Laugh”. 

8. Czech Republic- “Waves” Once a favorite with Oscar, the Czech Republic hasn’t been nominated in 20 years. During that time, they did manage to make the shortlist twice…but they were for films that weren’t actually well-liked by anyone (“Painted Bird” and “Charlatan”). For the past five years, the Czechs have selected historical dramas highlighting various eras in Czech history; four of these were biopics. In my opinion, only “Il Boemo” was actually a dramatically interesting film. So, considering their record, the obvious choice for Czech Republic would be “Waves”, another historical drama, this time focused on Czechoslovakian journalists during the Soviet invasion following the 1968 Prague Spring. Reviews have been good and it won the Audience Award at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival, the country’s major film festival. But I miss the eccentric, naughty sense of humor the Czechs used to bring to this category, so I’m secretly hoping for dark horse “She Came at Night”, a subtle horror-comedy about a visiting mother-in-law. It just won Best Director at the Czech Lions, over last year’s submission “Brothers”. But I know this is highly unlikely and I currently have the film ranked a distant fourth in the Czech race. The more likely alternates are family reunion drama “Our Lovely Pig Slaughter” (which won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary) and Oscar nominee Jan Hřebejk’s new “fake news” comedy, “State of Emergency”.  Rounding out the Top Five: Alzheimer’s family dramedy “Waltzing Matilda”. “I’m Not Everything I Want To Be”, a B&W documentary about the Prague Spring, was the only Czech film at a major festival this year but the Czechs have never picked a doc, and it doesn’t look particularly interesting.

9. Estonia- “Lioness” In a quiet year, I’m fully expecting that Estonia will go with last-minute release “Lioness”, a thriller about a brilliant doctor who is also an absent mother, and her relationship with her delinquent 15-year old daughter. It’s set to premiere in late September, it’s made by a previously submitted director and Estonia doesn’t have a whole lot of other choices. If for some reason that movie doesn’t turn out to be very good (and it looks very good), then this will probably go to period romance “Life and Love”. Two movies that had high expectations last year- wacky kung fu comedy “Invisible Fight” (Locarno 2023) and abstract drama “8 Views of Lake Biwa” (Rotterdam)- probably won’t be selected…but they do have their fans. Rounding out the Top 6 are two documentaries: “Vertical Money”, a about capitalism and nature, and “Who Am I Smiling For?”, about a mother with cancer.  

10. Georgia- “April” “Panopticon”, a disturbing coming-of-age drama about a creepy, sexually deviant youth living with his ultra-religious family, looked to be the automatic frontrunner for Georgia. It got good reviews at Karlovy Vary, and there were no other obvious choices, other than “Lotto” (aka “Drawing Lots”) which was the surprise winner of Best Georgian Film at the 2023 Tbilisi Film Festival. But then Dea Kulumbegashvili’s upcoming abortion drama “April” was selected as the only Eastern European film in the Main Competition of Venice 2024. Kulumbegashvili got great reviews for “Beginning” (which I didn’t like) and Georgia submitted it to the Oscars in 2020. Venice outranks Karlovy Vary and I think if “April” (aka “Those Who Find Me”) gets good reviews, it’s in. Two other dark horses are in post-production with no release date: Aleksandre Koberidze’s “Dry Leaf” and Ana Urushadze’s acting drama “Supporting Role”. Urushadze was selected once before and Koberidze was the hot favorite for “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?”. I expect those two will be eligible next year. 

11. Hungary- “Semmelweis” Last year, I predicted Hungary would pick “Semmelweis”, a 19^th century historical drama about a doctor trying to find a cure for a fever plaguing Viennese babies. The film was directed by Lajos Koltai who probably came close to an Oscar nomination in 2006 for “Fateless”. The release date for "Semmelweis" was delayed slightly and since that time it has swept the 2024 Hungarian Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director and four other awards. So, I think it’s safe. Other options (in order)- #2- “Without Air” sounds a bit like “Teachers Lounge” and is about a teacher whose life is turned upside-down by a parent’s ridiculous complaint, #3- “Pelikan Blue”, an animated documentary about Hungary in the 1990s that has gotten quite strong reviews…but Hungary picked an animated film last year….#4- “Raw Material”, about a village disrupted by a film team, and #5- “Kix”, a well-reviewed skateboarding documentary. Unknown quantity: “Lesson Learned”, which is due to premiere in competition at Locarno. I think “Semmelweis” is way ahead, but I would love to see “Without Air” picked instead.

12. Kosovo- “Phantom Youth” Kosovo made the unusual decision not to send a film last year despite receiving four submissions, including Tallinn Black Nights First Feature winner “The Land Within”. This was especially surprising because Kosovo is usually obsessed with proving its nationhood, since Serbia has continued to prevent full international recognition of Kosovo's independence since 2008. I believe Kosovo will return this year with “Phantom Youth” (Venice Horizons 2023), a well-reviewed coming-of-age drama about two Kosovar women who leave their small town to study in the capital. It's directed by 23-year old French-Kosovar actress Luana Bajrami.

13. Latvia- “Maria’s Silence” While last year was pretty dreadful for Latvia (“My Freedom” was one of the weakest entries of last year….and couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination at Latvia’s small National Film Awards) this year looks to be competitive. For now, this looks like a two-way race between “A Postcard from Rome”, which won Best Picture at the Latvian Film Awards, and Berlinale Forum prize winner “Maria’s Silence”. I would much prefer they chose “Postcard”, a gentle comedy-drama about an elderly couple trying to pay for a trip to Italy before the husband’s Alzheimers gets worse. But for the past decade, the Latvian Academy has shown that they like their films grim and dramatic and focused on serious subjects like war and Communism. So, “Maria’s Silence”, about an actress faced with a moral dilemma during Communist times, appears to be the frontrunner. Latvia also had an acclaimed animated film (“Flow”) at Cannes Un Certain Regard…Two documentaries – “Eastern Front” (about the war in Ukraine) and “Everything Will Be Alright” (about a 90-year old female war veteran)- could also surprise, although Latvia doesn’t like docs as much as its two Baltic neighbors. But not so fast….two big long-delayed films by Latvia’s leading directors could potentially see the light of day this year- rock band drama “Jumprava- The Happening” and Latvian independence drama “In the Land That Sings” were meant to premiere last year but now have no release date on the books. For now, “Maria” is still the frontrunner but “In the Land That Sings” is sure to be selected the year that it’s finally released.

14. Lithuania- “Five and a Half Love Stories in An Apartment in Vilnius, Lithuania” Vying for the year’s most awkward title, “Love Stories” (Tallinn Black Nights) follows five love stories in an AirBnB in the Lithuanian capital, deftly mixing a variety of genres and languages. It was nominated for almost every award at this year’s Lithuanian Film Awards though it lost most to last year’s submission, “Slow”. Lithuania frequently sends documentaries so “Bogdanas Longs to Stay” (about a juvenile detention center) and “The Mammoth Hunt” (about a lost Soviet film showing Lithuanian cultural opposition to Communist rule) could also be selected. It was also recently announced that Lithuania has two new films in the Main Competition at Locarno 2024 (there are only 17 films, so that’s quite an impressive feat)- “Drowning Dry”, about a family vacation that goes tragically wrong, and “Toxic”, about the dangers of modeling. “Drowning Dry” looks like it has a lot of potential if they can get it into cinemas by September 30.

15. Macedonia- “The Business of Pleasure” Macedonia has one of the more confusing races in the region, mostly because I can’t find release dates for most of their contenders. For now, I’m penciling in human trafficking drama “Business of Pleasure” which has gotten mixed reviews but also an international distribution deal and “The Love Room”, a documentary about two women who visit their imprisoned partners in jail for conjugal visits. Both of them premiered at festivals in mid-2023….so their eligibility will depend on whether they got a domestic release in Macedonia after November 1^st, 2023.  If they’re not eligible, Macedonia may choose a last-minute release (possibly from the Manaki Brothers Film Festival in late September). Dark horses: Teona Strugar Mitevska’s terminal illness documentary “21 Days Until the End of the World” and action-comedy “Kill the Children First”. Or they may skip the competition for lack of suitable contenders, like in 2017.

16. Moldova- “Man Without A Lifeline” Moldova had a wide-open race last year with four films to choose from, which bodes well for them staying in the competition permanently. This year looks much the same, with a few well-regarded films that would represent the national cinema of this small, former Soviet republic well…even if they don’t really have a chance to get an actual Oscar nomination. If they want to emulate Ukraine’s Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol”, they could select documentary “Shadow of War”, about a group of Moldovan filmmakers who travel to neighboring Ukraine to document the war. If they believe in the importance of film festivals, they’ll pick supernatural Antichrist drama “The Alienated”, which had its premiere at Karlovy Vary. “Man Without A Lifeline” won some minor awards in the USA for its story of a scientist imprisoned during the Communist era.  Also in the mix: Paralympic drama “Kretsul” and comedy-drama “Alive in Mo.” Interestingly, four out of five are directed or co-directed by women. I think the fact that “Alienated” and “Kretsul” are directed by Russians - not a good look - will hurt their chances, opening the door for “Man Without A Lifeline” to be selected. I expect the Karlovy Vary label will propel “The Alienated” into second place with “Shadows” in third.

17. Montenegro- “Forever Hold Your Peace” Tiny Montenegro has sent a film to the Oscars all but one year since their Oscar debut in 2013 (they received no submissions in 2017). This year, they’re almost certain to send messy Balkan wedding comedy “Forever Hold Your Peace”, which would make Ivan Marinovic the first Montenegrin director to be selected twice. However, it’s not a sure thing because oft-delayed “The Tower of Strength” (aka “Face of Honour” and “Children”) may finally come out this year. It’s a baity period drama set during WWII about a Christian child who begs a Muslim neighbor to save his life after his family is murdered, putting that entire family’s lives at risk and posing them with a grave moral dilemma. Less likely: comedy-drama “The Supermarket” and documentary “Once Upon A Family”.

18. Poland- “Under the Volcano” Poland is probably the most difficult country to predict because they have a huge film industry, but at least half of their contenders will premiere in September at the Gdynia National Film Festival. In alphabetical order, I see the four main contenders for Poland are: “Minghun”, a movie about grief in which a Polish father and his Chinese father-in-law mourn the loss of his daughter, “People”, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the eyes of a group of brave Ukrainian women, “Scarborn”, an 18^th century action epic about fighting the Russians which won Best Picture at the 2023 Gdynia Film Festival (over “The Peasants”) and “Under the Volcano”, about a Ukrainian family on vacation who are unable to return home when war breaks out. Poland has a good record in this category (3 nominations in six years….and it probably would have been four if they picked “Green Border” last year) so they definitely want to be nominated. As of today, only “Scarborn” has been screened for critics so it’s impossible to know. Both films about Ukraine have Polish directors so they’re eligible. I’ve heard seen mixed reviews for the buzzy “Minghun” on Letterboxd which makes me think that they may choose one of the others. For now, I’m pencilling in “Under the Volcano” but I’m not confident….with “Scarborn” in second place. I see a lot of people predicting Cannes Palme d’or nominee “Girl with the Needle” and transgender drama “Woman of…” but I don’t think they’re eligible. “Girl” is almost entirely Danish (with a few Polish crew) while “Woman of…” was shortlisted by Poland last year even though its eventual release date was this year. So I think they’re both out.

19. Romania- “Three Kilometres to the End of the World” For such an important country, Romania really only has two realistic choices….so it’s looking like a fierce competition of Berlin vs. Cannes. This is going to be a really difficult choice between two dramas about discrimination and prejudice- “Holy Week” takes place in 1900 Romania and focuses on anti-Semitism and revenge at a village inn; “Three Kilometers to the End of the World”, which was in the Main Competition at Cannes, is an LGBT drama about a young man whose conservative family learns he is gay after he is the victim of a brutal hate crime. Both got good reviews and were made by relatively new directors. I’m predicting “Three Kilometres” but this is really 50-50, especially since both were just selected for the 9-film Sarajevo Competition lineup….The Romanian Academy has picked daring movies before (remember the opening scene of “Bad Luck Banging”?) so I don’t expect they’ll be turned off by the gay themes. If they go for a shock surprise nominee (which happened two years ago), they could consider “Familiar” (by Golden Bear winner Calin Peter Netzer, who directed “Child’s Pose”), “Warboy”, a WWII youth drama, or documentary “Between Revolutions”. But I’m pretty sure it will be one of the two frontrunners. 

20. Russia- “The Alien” Once again, I have no expectations that Russia will send a film. After they invaded Ukraine in 2022, killing or wounding half a million people and destabilizing Europe, they disbanded their Oscars committee claiming the West was disrespecting them (?!). But I am proud that the placeholder film I picked for Russia last year (“Pravednik”) went on to win Best Picture at the 2024 Russian Nika Awards, making me feel good about my predictive abilities. Russian cinema has mostly been uninvited from international film festivals and they’ve been churning out a lot of light entertainment this year. If they send a film (which they won’t) I expect it would be the apolitical “The Alien”, which was the only Russian film in competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. It’s a well-reviewed drama about an eccentric village man obsessed with alien life. They also likely would have considered WWII village drama “Black Tapes” about village men who convince the local postmen to stop sending notices that relatives have died in the war, India co-production “We Should Make Movies About Love”, or “Anna’s Feelings”, another sci-fi alien drama, this time by previously submitted director Anna Melikyan. It would be interesting if AMPAS approved a committee-in-exile that could consider Aleksandr Sokurov’s latest film - the surreal fantasy “Fairytale” - which won Best Picture from the Russian Guild of Film Critics despite being banned…or indie drama “Dolomite and Ash”, about journalists investigating Soviet era atrocities.

21. Serbia- “The Great Tram Robbery” So, Serbia makes great movies. And the Serbian Academy makes terrible choices. In the past five years, they have selected three nationalist movies about Serbian history that probably went over the heads of many Oscar viewers, ignoring critically acclaimed dramas that were expected to contend for a nomination, like “Father” and “Guardians of the Formula”. They also tend to select directors in their 50s and 60s. (only Petar Ristovski was from the younger generation, but he’s the son of respected retired actor/director Lazar Ristovski). So, that’s why I’m picking 1920’s expensive epic historical film “The Great Tram Robbery” (aka “God Be With Us”) by 77-year old Slobodan Slijan, who was an important director during the Communist era. It’s the sort of big-budget, pretty-looking film the Serbian Academy loves and that American audiences don’t. In second place, I have “The Erl-King” (by 67-67-year old Goran Radovanovic) about a family under siege by the NATO bombing of Belgrade in the 1990s. It represented Serbia at the Moscow International Film Festival, and Radovanovic represented Serbia for another nationalist film (Enclave) in 2015. But it’s possible Serbia could go arthouse- they did in 2021- and that means they could select “That’s It For Today” (aka “Enough for Now”), a warmly received rural drama that won Best Serbian Film at FEST 2024 in Belgrade. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Serbia: “Russian Consul”, another nationalist historical drama about the origins of the Serbia-Kosovo conflict and dark horse “Lost Country”. Cannes 2023 drama “Lost Country” is a moral dilemma drama of the sort that the Balkan countries do so well (a young son realizes his mother is part of the genocidal Milosevic government), and it was one of the favorites to rep Serbia last year. It wasn’t selected by the film ended up changing its release date so it may be eligible this year. But it’s critical perspective of Serbian nationalism may mean the committee just doesn’t like its message. I’d love for them to consider something a bit wackier like comedy “Lilacs” or horror-drama “The Working Class to Hell” both of which were among the four Serbian films featured at FEST….but I’d say it’s unlikely. Unknown quantity: Serbia has two new films that were just announced for the 9-film competition in Sarajevo, including “Mother Mara”, directed and starring a well-known Serbian actress as a woman who meets a mysterious man while grieving the loss of her son. The other, migrant drama “Dwelling Among the Gods”, is the story of an Afghan woman and is unlikely to rep Serbia.

22. Slovakia- “The Hungarian Dressmaker” Slovakia appears to have a fairly easy decision this year. Iveta Grofova’s “Hungarian Dressmaker” was the only majority Slovak production at Karlovy Vary (the premier festival for both Czech and Slovak films) and Grofova was selected once before in 2012. The film is about an ethnic Hungarian woman hiding a Jewish boy from the Nazis during WWII…which recalls Slovakia’s long-ago Oscar win for “The Shop on Main Street”. Slovakia hasn’t selected a film helmed by a woman in over a decade so this would be a victory for equality as well. Slovakia has made some surprising decisions in the past so upcoming crime drama “Miki” could contend if it gets really great reviews after its August release. Slovakia likes documentaries (they picked docudramas two of the past three years) so “Andy Warhol: The American Dream” could also be the one (Warhol was of Slovak descent). Period dramas “Whirlwind”  and “The Dormant Account” are by previously submitted directors but don’t have reviews good enough to defeat the “Dressmaker”.

23. Slovenia- “Family Therapy” Slovenia usually sends an intimate drama to the Oscars and this year I expect that will be “Family Therapy” (Tribeca, Sarajevo), a social satire about a wealthy Slovenian family. This would be the third go-round for Sonja Prosenc (after "The Tree" and "History of Love") and this is supposed to be her best film yet. In second place, I have the upcoming “The Lost Son” about two brothers- one a good cop, and the other a criminal. Round out the Top 5: “Wake Me”, about an amnesiac visiting his brother (it won Best Fiction Feature at the 2023 Slovenian Vesna Awards); “Role Model”, a family drama about a lonely teen, his alcoholic mother and a mysterious neighbor; and “Body” a dull-looking documentary filmed over the course of 20 years, about a women fighting an autoimmune illness. Dark horses include Janez Burger’s new thriller “Observing” (he’s been selected three times), coming-of-age drama “Fantasy” and docudrama “Pero”.  

24. Ukraine- “Porcelain War” Wow….Ukraine won its first Oscar last year (“20 Days in Mariupol” won Best Documentary and was deservingly shortlisted in this category as well). Despite the war, cinemas remain open and the country Kyiv hosted Ukraine’s International Film Festival (usually in Odessa) in July 2024. It’s an incredibly competitive year for Ukraine with nearly two dozen documentaries and fiction features in play, and no frontrunner. I’ve no idea which one they’ll pick. However, since Ukraine’s top foreign policy priority is to drum up international support for the war efforts, I think they’ll pick another documentary….and their best option seems to be Sundance Documentary winner “Porcelain War”, about three artists who continue to document daily Ukrainian life after Russia’s invasion. It’s topical, well-reviewed and proved to resonate with U.S. audiences. If they want a fiction feature, it will probably be “Grey Bees” about two middle-aged neighbors trying to stay alive in the Donbass, on the war’s frontlines. It just won Best Ukrainian Film at the national film festival. The documentary runner-ups (in order): “Intercepted” (Berlinale 2024), “The Invasion” (Cannes 2024), which hasn’t gotten the best reviews but is directed by acclaimed director Sergei Loznitsa, and “In the Rearview”, which would be a frontrunner if the director wasn’t Polish. The fiction runner-ups: family drama “Stepne” (Locarno 2023), LGBT comedy “Lessons of Tolerance” (which Western critics don’t seem to like), “The Editorial Office” (Sarajevo), and “How is Katia?”. Slava Ukraini!