FINAL PREDICTIONS

Final Predictions....

So, I've heard that the final list will come out tomorrow (Friday) but that it could come out as early as today (Thursday) so I'm rushing to post this final post.

So many people are predicting the (terrible) documentary "Fire at Sea" from Italy and the animated film from Switzerland, but I find it hard to believe that they will be able to break out of their respective genres especially since they are both on the lists for Best Documentary and Best Animated Film at the Oscars (and especially since "Fire at Sea" is a bad documentary).

Will they care about giving a posthumous honor to Poland's Andrzei Wajda, even though his final film is not considered his best? Will they reward outstanding filmmaking (Slovakia's "Eva Nova") and/or challenging topics (France's "Elle")? Or go with friendlier, easier choices (Sweden's "A Man Called Ove", Brazil's "Little Secret")?

And will it matter that so many former winners (Almodovar, Farhadi and Tanovic plus Honorory Oscar winner Wajda) and nominees (Abu Assad, Larrain, van der Oest, Yamada) are competing against each other?

And can Egypt finally get their first nomination after over 50 years of trying? Can any smaller countries surprise?

Here are my predictions:

NEARLY A LOCK 
1. DENMARK- "Land of Mine"
2. GERMANY- "Toni Erdmann"

PREDICTED
3. NETHERLANDS- "Tonio"
4. FINLAND- "The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki" (Elite Committee Save)
5. EGYPT- "Clash" (Elite Committee Save)
6. SWEDEN- "A Man Called Ove"
7. IRAN- "The Salesman"
8. CHILE- "Neruda"
9. BRAZIL- "Little Secret" (this year's surprise WTF nominee)

STRONG ALTERNATES:
10. FRANCE- "Elle"
11. SPAIN- "Julieta"
12. SINGAPORE- "Apprentice"
13. ISRAEL- "Sandstorm"
14. CANADA- "Juste le fin du monde"
15. RUSSIA- "Paradise"
16. SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova" 
17. NORWAY- "The King's Choice"
18. ARGENTINA- "The Distinguished Citizen"

DARK HORSES:
19. ALGERIA- "The Well"
20. AUSTRALIA- "Tanna"
21. MACEDONIA- "The Liberation of Skopje"
22. POLAND- "Afterimage" (only because Wajda is dead)
23. SOUTH KOREA- "Age of Shadows"
24. SWITZERLAND- "Ma vie de courgette"
25. VENEZUELA- "From Afar"

LONG SHOTS
26. GEORGIA- "House of Others"
27. ROMANIA- "Sieranevada"
28. SOUTH AFRICA- "Call Me Thief"
29. ITALY- "Fire at Sea" (Dear Academy: Please don't choose this one!)
30. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Death in Sarajevo"
31. SERBIA- "Train Driver's Diary"
32. VIETNAM- "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass"

LONGEST OF LONG SHOTS
33. ESTONIA- "Mother"
34. PALESTINE- "The Idol"
35. MONTENEGRO- "The Black Pin"
36. GREECE- "Chevalier"
37. NEPAL- "The Black Hen"
38. ICELAND- "Sparrows"
39. KYRGYZSTAN- "A Father's Will"
40. TURKEY- "Cold of Kalandar"

And just for fun.....

Bottom-ranked of the 85 films:
85. PERU- "Videophilia"
84. THAILAND- "Karma"
83. LITHUANIA- "Seneca's Day"

Most Likely to get their first-ever nomination: EGYPT- "Clash"
Runner-ups: SINGAPORE- "Apprentice", SLOVAKIA- "Eva Nova"

Good luck to all 85 countries!

2017 Foreign Oscar Predictions- THE AMERICAS (15 films)

And here's the final batch of films, representing the Americas.....

OH, HELL NO!

15. PERU- "Videophilia (And Other Viral Syndromes)
14. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- "Sugar Fields" (Flor de Azucar)

"Videophilia" from PERU is probably the least-likely of the 85 films. That doesn't mean it's the worst film, but one look at the plot (A teenage girl from Lima meets a boy online, and he's obsessed with conspiracies, porn and prophecies. When they meet in real life, supernatural events begin to unfold around them.) or the trailer with its hallucinogenic, blurry images will let you know that this "out-there" teen drama is not getting anywhere near the Hollywood Theatre. As for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, "Sugar Fields" is one of the only films on the list that actually got bad reviews from critics (and currently has the lowest rating on IMDB- 4.6). Nobody seems to like the film, which is said to be pretty but confusing, featuring families suffering under the years of the Trujillo dictatorship.


OUT OF THE RUNNING

13. COLOMBIA- "Alias Maria"
12. BOLIVIA- "Sealed Cargo" (Carga sellada)

11. PANAMA- "Salsipuedes"
10. COSTA RICA- "About Us" (Entonces nosotros)


This year's two films from Central America should be proud to represent their countries. PANAMA has selected low-budget barrio drama "Salsipuedes", about a 20-year old Panamanian teen raised in the USA, who returns home for his grandfather's funeral and meets his father who's currently serving time in prison. COSTA RICA has selected quirky romantic comedy/road movie "About Us", about a man who goes on a road trip to rekindle his romance with his bored girlfriend, only to meet another woman on the way. The trailer looks absolutely charming and ripe for an American remake. Both these films are probably good but not the sort of movies that get recognized here.

COLOMBIA has selected "Alias Maria", about a pregnant child soldier fighting in the jungle. Though this worked for "War Witch" a few years ago, most critics found "Maria" to be a bit disappointing and the film is described as cold and unemotional despite the serious plight of its protagonist. That leaves BOLIVIA which has selected eco-thriller/modern-day western "Sealed Cargo". The two reviews I've read say almost exactly the same things- it's entertaining and funny and tries really hard, though both mention the film "lacks artistry". In other words, it's not a great film, but it's a fun ride. And sometimes isn't that why we go the movies? For the record, "Sealed Cargo" follows a crew guarding a train carrying toxic waste through the highlands of Bolivia.

GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH

9. CUBA- "The Companion" (El acompanante)
8. MEXICO- "Desierto"
7. URUGUAY- "Breadcrumbs" (Migas de pan)
6. ECUADOR- "Such Is Life in the Tropics" (Sin muertos no hay carnaval)

This group includes two obscure South American dramas with zero buzz and two North American films that have been shown in the States to mixed reaction.

I actually predicted MEXICO would send "Desierto" last year, not knowing that the film wouldn't premiere in Mexico until April 2016. It got mostly poor reviews when it premiered in Toronto 2015 so I basically forgot about it until Mexico selected it as their nominee this year. "Desierto" bills itself as a thriller but it's actually more correctly termed a "horror movie" as a psychotic American redneck (presumably a Trump voter) hunts down a group of Mexicans who are crossing the border illegally. It's certainly very topical but the over-the-top acting by the loony Yanqui (Jeffrey Dean Morgan, "Walking Dead") and graphic violence won't win it any fans here. Besides, Mexico almost always chooses these border thrillers year after year ("Miss Bala", "Backyard", "600 Miles") but none of them have ever been nominated.

Two of South America's smallest countries- Ecuador and Uruguay- have a slightly better chance. URUGUAY has chosen "Breadcrumbs", starring Argentine-Spanish actress Cecilia Roth as an adult survivor of sexual violence, dating from the time when she was an activist protesting the military dictatorship of the 70s and 80s. The one review I've seen (the Hollywood Reporter) says it's an important topic but it's "schlocky" and "unexciting". Sebastian Cordero of ECUADOR reportedly just missed out on an Oscar nomination over a decade ago for the all-but-forgotten thriller "Cronicas", starring John Leguizamo and Damien Alcazar. This year, Ecuador's most famous international director is back with "Such is Life in the Tropics", though the Spanish title is better translated as "It's not a real party unless someone dies". It's set amidst the intrigue of a group of land-grabbers trying to evict poor slumdwellers from their homes, with numerous stories skillfully weaved together. Cordero is a talented director and this might be a contender if it had more buzz.

DARK HORSE POSSIBILITIES
5. VENEZUELA- "From Afar" (Desde alla)
4. ARGENTINA- "The Distinguished Citizen"
3. CANADA- "It's Only the End of the World" (Juste le fin du monde)

These three films have an uphill battle for a number of reasons.

Desde alla from VENEZUELA is a great film. It's original, it's unpredictable and it won the Grand Prize at the 2015 Venice Film Festival. Of the twelve films I've actually seen (out of 85), it's also the most memorable, with the ending continuing to raise tantalizing questions (though not in the WTF way that some Euro directors operate). However, the film is LGBT (rarely rewarded here, though last year's "Viva" was an exception), it's gritty and urban (no beautiful landscapes here) and some people frankly dislike it. The plot revolves around a 50-year old gay man in Venezuela who engages in psychological mind games with a young gang member. The less you know before you see it, the better.

Speaking of LGBT, Xavier Dolan is back with "It's Only the End of the World", a French drama representing CANADA with an all-star cast (including Oscar nominee Marion Cotillard) about a writer who assembles his dysfunctional family all together to tell them he's dying. This is also a hard one. Oscar has shown no love for Dolan's top-notch queer dramas ("Mommy" and the brilliant "I Killed My Mother") but this one is different. Reviews have been decidely mixed and critical of the screaming matches that often mark Dolan's films, but it still managed to win two awards at Cannes and Oscar loves French films.....This may have a better shot than the better-reviewed "Mommy".

Speaking of mixed reviews, ARGENTINA's comedy "The Distinguished Citizen" is about an award-winning author based in Europe who has made a career out of telling less-than-flattering stories about the rural countryside town where he was raised. So, when he returns home after decades away, some locals are excited while others less than impressed . This sounds like a great idea but it seems to be "love it or hate it". I've heard some say the film is brilliant while others say it's amateurish. Most say it's a crowdpleaser. This divisive reaction doesn't bode well when you're competing against 84 other movies.

FRONT-RUNNERS

2. BRAZIL- "Little Secret"
1. CHILE- "Neruda"

Many are predicting Pablo Larrain's biopic "Neruda" from CHILE will be the film to beat this year. It's gotten good reviews for being a "different kind" of biopic as it creates a fictional "chase" as right-wing Chilean authorities pursue the Nobel Prize-winning poet for his political views. And I agree "Neruda" has an excellent chance at being selected. But there are no locks in this category and I think "Neruda" will be on the bubble just as Larrain's "Club" (which was not nominated) and "No" (which was) likely were. The prolific Larrain also directed this year's wannabe Best Picture nominee "Jackie" (another biopic). If "Neruda" fails to make the Top Six will the elite committee save it? Or decide that Larrain will have a chance elsewhere? Hard to tell.


As for BRAZIL....This is a tough one. The film is a drama telling three separate stories, all connected by one "little secret". The film has not gotten the best reviews but it seems to be exactly the sort of strong narrative drama that the large committee goes for. The film is roughly 40% (I've heard different numbers from different people) in English, which could be a positive thing for voters weary of watching 85 films with subtitles. Ultimately, I think Brazil will have a hard time making the Top Six and the elite committee won't vote for it....But it's definitely a stronger possibility than people think.



Now the statistics:

Number of countries from these regions who have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year:  15

Number of debuts: Zero

Number of countries opting out: Four. PARAGUAY entered the race for the first time last year and this year they publicly launched an open call for submissions....but they didn't send a film for unknown reasons. Also absent: Guatemala and Nicaragua, plus PUERTO RICO which (unfairly) is no longer invited. 

Already Seen: Just one- "Desde Alla" from VENEZUELA. 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: I'm a huge Xavier Dolan fan, so without a doubt it's "It's Only the End of the World" from CANADA. 

Feature Debuts:  Only three countries selected features debuts, namely: Juan Daniel F. Molero (Peru), Ricardo Aguilar Navarro + Manolito Rodriguez (Panama) and Lorenzo Vigas (Venezuela)

Number of Female Directors:  Just two- Manane Rodríguez (Uruguay) and 74-year old Julia Vargas Weise (Bolivia). 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Even after years of making films, 27-year old Xavier Dolan of Canada is still the youngest in the group (and possibly of all the directors....Lebanon's director was also born in 1989). The oldest is Julia Vargas Weis

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  Unsurprisingly, most of the films (13 to be exact) are in Spanish. The other two are in French and Portuguese, though the Brazilian film is said to be nearly 50% English. 

Number of Animated Films and Documentaries: Zero

Number of comedies:  TWO. Argentina's satirical "Distinguished Citizen" and Costa Rica's rom-com "About Us", though Peru's messy abdurdist "Videophilia" could be anything really. 

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Five

Highest profile film:  Without a doubt, Pablo Larrain's "Neruda" from Chile. 

Oscar History: Pablo Larrain, representing Chile a record fourth time, was nominated on his second try for "No". He's the only Oscar nominee in contention from Latin America. Mexican writer/director Jonas Cuaron was recognized as one of the producers of "Gravity" for the BAFTAs but was not recognized at the Oscars being that he did not receive a Best Picture nomination (and "Gravity" famously failed to get a Screenplay nomination). 

Xavier Dolan of Canada ("I Killed My Mother", "Mommy") is on his third try at Oscar while Sebastian Cordero of Ecuador ("Cronicas") and Pavel Giroud of Cuba ("La edad de la peseta") are on their second. 

Only Canada and Argentina have won this award. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Peru have made it to the nomination stage, while Venezuela has been shortlisted once. The six smaller countries (Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, Uruguay) are waiting for their first nomination although it likely won't be this year. 

Controversies and Changes:  Brazil, Brazil, Brazil! A political controversy erupted in Brazil when critic Marcus Petrucelli was announced as one of the members of the national Oscar selection committee. Petrucelli had criticized Kleber Mendonça Filho, the director of  this year's Brazilian favorite "Aquarius" as well as Brazil's so-so 2013 submission "Neighbouring Sounds", for his political protests at Cannes against the current interim government. Filho and many other high-profile Brazilian filmmakers cried foul, saying that Petrucelli's participation amounted to political interference. Directors of several films due to compete against "Aquarius'" (including "Neon Bull" and "Don't Call Me Son") withdrew in support of Filho. In the end, Brazil picked the Oscar-friendly "Little Secret" over the more daring "Aquarius". Was the decision politically motivated? Possibly, yes. 

Most Notable Omissions:  Well..."Aquarius" is definitely the most notable omission, though I'm not sure Oscar would have liked it better than the more traditional "Little Secret". Also missing: "The Chosen Ones" (Las Eligidas) from Mexico, Philippe Falardeau's "My Internship in Canada" (which I thought was a shoo-in to represent Canada) and "The Long Night of Francisco Sanctis" from Argentina. 

And since I like to see comedies in the mix, I was disappointed not to see "Las toninas van al Este" (Uruguay) and "La Familia Reyna" (which went to the Goyas for the Dominican Republic) in the race. 

Familiar Faces:  Where to start?! How's this for a Top 10: Gael Garcia Bernal, Gael Garcia Bernal (again!), Vincent Cassel, Diego Cataño ("Narcos"), Alfredo Castro (also twice), Marion Cotillard, Fionnula Flanagan, Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Cecilia Roth and Lea Seydoux! That's a lot of familiar faces, although most of them are representing the big countries- Canada, Chile, Brazil and Mexico though Almodovar muse Roth headlines the obscure Uruguayan submission. 

Last year's race:   Last year, 14 of these countries announced films (though Panama's "Box 25" didn't appear on the final list), including first-time nominee Colombia. This group also had the most high-profile snubs (Argentina, Brazil and Chile). I'm shocked that I only got to see four of these 14 films. "Embrace of the Serpent" was great (though not an easy watch) and the best filmmaking achievement, although I found Guatemala's "Ixcanul" slightly more interesting....."Sand Dollars" from the Dominican Republic was of interest mostly due to its great acting whereas I hated Canada's lame "Felix and Meira" (D). 

2017 Foreign Oscar Predictions- ASIA (18 films)

And here are the 19 films from Asia. Really, almost none of these films have any chance at all to be nominated....though once again SINGAPORE is a potential dark horse.

DISQUALIFIED

19. AFGHANISTAN- "Parting" 

Afghanistan's film industry is always struggling but the produce some absolutely beautiful films that can compete with the world's best. This is why it's disappointing that for the second year in a row, they're not on the official list. Last year, "Utopia" was disqualified after being accepted because it had too much English. And this year, "Parting" (Busan 2016) didn't even make the shortlist. No official reason was given. Some have speculated that this film about Afghans fleeing to Iran was judged to be a majority Iranian film (the director is an Afghan-born refugee who moved to Iran as a child). But the director's brother had a similar co-production accepted to compete for Afghanistan a few years ago. Others have speculated that it didn't have a qualifying run in Afghanistan. I'm not sure what the reason is. If it's the first, I'm angry. If it's the second, hopefully we'll see "Parting" in competition next year (There is precedence for this...."Basain" from Nepal, and "Ghadi" from Lebanon).

BOTTOM OF THE LIST

18. THAILAND- "Karma"
17. PAKISTAN- "Mah-e-Mir"
16. CAMBODIA- "Before the Fall"
15. TAIWAN- "Hang In There, Kids!"
14. BANGLADESH- "The Unnamed"

THAILAND has sent a horror movie about a sinful young monk who confronts some sort of demon/ghost for his transgressions with a cute local girl. And no matter how good a movie about a demon attacking a monk is, it's not going to be nominated for an Oscar. And I think Thailand knows that by now. And they don't care. This film was banned in Thailand and then re-edited and released and turned out to be quite a box-office success.

Neighboring CAMBODIA has selected "Before the Fall", a gonzo action thriller about a love triangle between an American man, a Frenchman and a local Cambodian girl in 1975 right before the genocidal Khmer Rouge took over Phnom Penh. Directed by Australian Ian White, this was a last-minute surprise on the Oscar shortlist. It looks like a fun flick made on a low-budget but the over-the-top acting (especially from the French lead who is a model in real life) and staged fighting mean Cambodia is a bit out of its league here. Still, glad to see them here!

PAKISTAN had a weak year and almost decided not to send a film at all. They ended up selecting "Mah-e-Mir", about a modern-day poet who delves into the life of a renowned 18th century poet. Urdu poetry is not likely to interest Western audiences (and poetry is extremely hard to translate well in subtitles) and the film did not enthuse audiences here in Pakistan. Most people here say it's well-filmed but boring and nobody expects it to do well. Still, I'm trying to find a legal copy so I can judge for myself! Nearby BANGLADESH has selected "The Unnamed", a drama centered on the human trafficking trade. In the film, a family awaits the coffin of a Bangladeshi laborer who died in the Gulf. They problem? The family knows their relative is alive and living illegally in Italy....so who is in the coffin? The answer to that question is eventually answered (becoming another family's tragedy) with excellent storytelling and lots of black humor....but production values in Bangladesh are always a challenge.

And there's TAIWAN...."Hang In There Kids" is a saccharine family drama about three boys from poor Aboriginal communities (they speak Atayal with their families but Mandarin Chinese at school) and their misadventures in their village, with their teacher and with their parents. It's a perfectly nice film that makes the Taiwanese countryside look gorgeous but it's a bit lightweight and forgettable to make an impact here.


OUT OF LUCK

13. INDONESIA- "Letters from Prague"
12. CHINA- "Xuan Zang"
11. KAZAKHSTAN- "Amanat"
10. MALAYSIA- "Redha" (Beautiful Pain)
9. HONG KONG- "Port of Call"

INDONESIA has once again chosen a soapy historical drama- "Letters From Prague"- which sheds light on a little-known period in Indonesian history when Indonesians living abroad were required to swear their allegiance to the new revolutionary government when Suharto took over in a coup d'etat....or forced to renounce their citizenship and live in exile forever. It's an important historical moment for Indonesia but the obscure history and usual Indonesian melodramatics and music (by local R+B star Glenn Fredly) probably won't interest Western viewers. The same will probably go for "Amanat" from KAZAKHSTAN. Those few who have seen the film say it's a good one with high production values, but this film which showcases Kazakh struggles against Russian imperialism during the time of the tsars (1830-1840s....lots of battle scenes, warriors and camels), Stalin (1940s) and Khruschev (1960-1970s) will probably also be too confusing and nationalistic for outside viewers to get the whole story.

Historical dramas don't often do well in this category when the historical elements are confusing or unknown to an American audience who rarely know much more than WWII and Vietnam. And so, Indonesia and Kazakhstan are a distinct disadvantage.

CHINA has gone even further back in history (the 7th century A.D.) with "Xuan Zang", the well-known (in China) story of a young monk who journeys 25,000 kilometers on foot to India to obtain ancient Buddhist scriptures. Reviews almost all say the exact same thing- the visuals and cinematography will dazzle you....and the film will put you to sleep. Not a contender. The best of the three Chinese-language films- HONG KONG's dark crime drama "Port of Call" won't do much better. Reviews have been mixed for this dark procedural thriller in which the murder mystery focuses not on "who" but "why". I watched it last night and I actually thought this was quite a daring film, it's backward and forward timelines can be confusing and ultimately the story doesn't 100% come together ....also, some people clearly don't like the film.

MALAYSIA  is looking to become a regular competitor, submitting for the fourth time with "Redha" (aka "Beautiful Pain") a family drama about parents struggling with raising an autistic child. The father in particular is unable to accept his son as he is. This is probably Malaysia's best effort so far (after sending an action movie, a overwrought period piece and a un-PC comedy) but it's not going to be good enough to make it to the next round. Critics say it's a strong but sentimental film highlighting an important topic for Malaysians, but one that may be a bit too basic on autism for the West.



HOPING FOR A MIRACLE

8. PHILIPPINES- "Ma' Rosa"
7. JAPAN- "Nagasaki, Memories of My Son"
6. INDIA- "Interrogation"

This year, the films from Japan and the Philippines have their fans....just not nearly enough of them. Oscar has never been a fan of the gritty, "poverty porn" that forms the mainstay of Filipino arthouse cinema (and which was the subject of one of the Philippines' best-ever Oscar submissions, satire "Woman in the Septic Tank") so the PHILIPPINES entry "Ma' Rosa" is automatically out of the running. This is Brillante Mendoza's first-ever time representing the Philippines but "Ma" is not considered his best work and most who like the film praise Cannes Best Actress winner Jaclyn Rose more than the film itself. This is the story of two impoverished parents arrested for small-time drug dealing, leaving their kids to fend for themselves. It's dark, grim and a difficult film to watch.

JAPAN has chosen the tearjerker "Nagasaki: Memories of My Son", about an elderly mother visited my the ghost of her son, who was killed in the atomic bombings on Nagasaki. I haven't seen "Nagasaki", but despite the important subject matter, reviews have been decidedly mixed. It's a stirring subject featuring some of Japan's best living actors, but critics note the film is heavy on dialogue and has bizarre comic moments that might make sense in Japan but not in the West. It seems this film doesn't translate very well.

Somewhat more likely is the film from INDIA. Once again, India has chosen well. "Interrogation" is a gritty Tamil-language film about a group of Tamil immigrants in Telugu-speaking Andhra Pradesh who are accused of a brutal crime. Just as it appears they've found a way out, things get worse. Once again, I don't think Oscar is likely to rate the film highly enough to make the next round, but this is a quality film that will proudly represent India.

UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE

5. NEPAL- "The Black Hen"
4. KYRGYZSTAN- "A Father's Will"
3. VIETNAM- "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass"

Once upon a time, the foreign Oscar category loved exotic stories from exotic countries, seeing how much lived (especially kids) in a dozen different countrysides. However, the days of "Dersu Uzala", "Children of Heaven" and "Caravan" are largely gone, replaced with more urban and/or historical films (last year's "Theeb" and "Mustang" were notable exceptions).

Vietnam and Nepal have both chosen films in the "cute kids with difficult lives coming-of-age in the beautiful countryside" sub-genre. VIETNAM's "Yellow Flowers on Green Grass" was a big hit at home and has snagged a US distributor (Fortissimo) and bookings in "Kids" sections of international film festivals for its story of kids growing up in rural Vietnam in the 1980s.  Based on a novel, it jumps from story to story and while the countryside look idyllic, these kids run into some pretty tough problems (including one boy who becomes paralyzed). NEPAL's "The Black Hen" may be the best-reviewed Nepali film since Oscar nominee "Caravan" (which was actually directed by a Frenchman), and one of the best-traveled (Venice, Busan, Tokyo etc.) too. The plot concerns two boys from different social classes growing up as unlikely friends during the Maoist Civil War of the 2000s, and their attempt to recapture a lost chicken who matters more than you'd think. The film has been well-received, especially for its visuals.

KYRGYZSTAN is another of those countries that keeps sending good films but has no Oscar nominations to show for it. "A Father's Will" is one of the most obscure films on the list, though it sounds great. A twist on the tale of the prodigal son, "A Father's Will" concerns Azat, who returns to Kyrgyzstan to a not-so-warm welcome after fifteen years living in the United States. It turns out Azat's father (who died in America) borrowed money for the journey to America but never sent any back, and that he also caused his other son (Azat's brother) to be imprisoned before leaving. There's not a single review anywhere online, but if one goes solely by quality, the Kyrgyz have never once sent a bad movie in this category.

DARK HORSES FOR THE LIST

2. SOUTH KOREA- "Age of Shadows"

1. SINGAPORE- "Apprentice"

These two Asian economic powers are still waiting for their first Oscar nominations, even though South Korea has one of the world's most dynamic and popular film industries. Sadly, both of them will likely fall short again this year and although the top-ranked films in Asia, I consider both of them dark horses at best.

SOUTH KOREA has tried everything from arthouse to period pieces to tearjerkers and is now trying its luck with a slick spy thriller. Shot like a Hollywood spy movie, "Age of Shadows" is an exciting movie set during the Japanese colonial era featuring heroic Korean characters defeating villainous Japanese ones. Nationalist overtones aside, this style of film makes for great box-office and the film has gotten good reviews, but ultimately may prove too confusing and too "Korean" to break out here. Korea has failed to be nominated for better films. As for SINGAPORE, it's true nobody is talking about death penalty drama "Apprentice". But this film, which premiered at Cannes 2016, has the potential break out. The story concerns a young Malay Singaporean prison guard on death row who comes under the tutelage of the prison's elderly longtime executioner. Without giving too much way, it eventually transpires that the executioner killed the young guard's father leading to numerous questions about secret intentions. The film has universally strong reviews and though I don't think it will make it, it could surprise.

And here are the statistics:

Number of countries from these regions who have participated in the past: 23

Number of countries participating this year:  19, if you include AFGHANISTAN who were disqualified.

Number of debuts: Zero.

Number of countries opting out:  Only four....Bhutan, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan haven't submitted in years....The last film from any of these countries was "The Road from Elephant Pass" in 2009. 

Already Seen: TWO. "Hang In There Kids!" from TAIWAN and "Port of Call" from HONG KONG. 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: KYRGYZSTAN's "A Father's Will" 

Feature Debuts:  SEVEN of the 19 films are feature debuts: Min Bahadur Bham (Nepal), Kanittha Kwanyu (Thailand), Bakyt Mukul and Dastan Zhapar Uulu (Kyrgyzstan),  Tunku Mona Riza (Malaysia), Narymbetov Satybaldy (Kazakhstan) and Ian White (an Australian representing Cambodia) plus the disqualified Navid Mahmoudi (Afghanistan)

Number of Female Directors:  THREE. Kanittha Kwanyu (Thailand), Laha Mebow (Taiwan) and Tunku Mona Riza (Malaysia). Kwanyu and Riza are the first women ever to represent their countries here. 

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 85-year old Yoji Yamada from Japan and (probably) 31-year old Angga Dwimas Sasongko from Indoensia. 

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  Two films are mostly in Mandarin (China and Taiwan) and Malay (Malaysia and Singapore). The other fourteen are in Bengali, Cantonese, Indonesian, Japanese, Kazakh, Khmer, Korean, Kyrgyz, Nepali, Tagalog, Tamil, Thai, Urdu and Vietnamese, plus the disqualified Afghan film in Persian. 

Actually, the films from Cambodia (French and English), Kazakhstan (Russian) and Taiwan (Atayal) are multi-lingual.

Number of Animated Films and Documentaries:  Zero

Number of comedies: Zero

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist:  Um, how about one? 

Highest profile film:  This is a pretty low-profile group of films! But it's probably "Ma' Rosa" (Philippines) on the film festival circuit and "Age of Shadows" (South Korea) in the international box-office. 

Oscar History: Yoji Yamada has represented Japan five times (tying Akira Kurosawa's record) and was nominated once for "The Twilight Samurai". None of the other directors has been submitted before, unless you count Boo Junfeng whose short film was included in Singapore's omnibus entry "7 Letters", last year. 

Best and Worst Decisions:  Good moves from India (which chose a respected, quality film), Pakistan (which almost decided not to submit a film at all), Singapore, Vietnam, Nepal and Kyrgyzstan. 

Once again, Japan and China don't seem to have a handle on what sort of film will do well here....perhaps they don't care. 

Controversies and Changes:  Not much. Some eyebrows were raised when dark comedy "I Am Not Madame Bovary" from China had its release postponed so that it was no longer eligible. It appeared this story of Chinese corruption may have had difficulty with the censors. Afghanistan's disqualification (or whatever happened there) is the biggest controversy from Asia. Even India's selection usually contentious process proceeded quietly. 

Most Notable Omissions:  I was hoping to see "After the Storm" by one of my favorite directors (Hirokazu Koreeda) represent Japan, but the most glaring absence from the list is "The Handmaiden" from South Korea. I was surprised to see "Diamond Island" (Cambodia) left off the list but it may not have premiered at home. And some had hoped that Lav Diaz's two incredibly long shortlisted films, "A Lullaby to the Sorrowful Mystery" (8 hours) and "The Woman Who Left" (4 hours), would represent the Philippines but I think the whole Academy is grateful they weren't. 

Familiar Faces:  The most famous for international audiences is probably Byung-hun Lee, the new Korean "Terminator" who co-stars in "Age of Shadows or Japan's Tadanobu Asano (the "Thor" films, as well as a long resume of infinitely superior, edgy Japanese films) who co-stars in "Nagasaki: Memories of My Son".

Also in the mix this year: pop star/movie star Aaron Kwok stars in "Port of Call", Winston Chao ("The Wedding Banquet") as a King in "Xuan Zang", and the Japanese Meryl Streep, Sayuri Yoshinaga and Kazunari Ninomiya ("Letters From Iwo Jima" co-star with Asano in "Nagasaki: Memories of My Son" 

Last year's race:   All 19 of these countries sent films last year except Indonesia. They failed to get a single spot on the shortlist (and they probably won't this year either). 

I managed to see 10 of them . My favorite was Singapore's "7 Letters" (A-), though I also would also highly recommend the films from Thailand ("How to Win At Checkers", A-), Japan ("100 Yen Love", B+) and China's weird "Go Away Mr. Tumor" (B+), which is kind of a mess of a movie, but ultimately very satisfying. "Court" (India), "Moor" (Pakistan), and "The Throne" (South Korea) were pleasant, average but flawed films. "Talakjung vs. Tulke" (Nepal) definitely had a hard-working cast and crew but was ultimately out of its league in this competition. "The Assassin" (Taiwan) (D) was a visual delight but a disaster in every other respect, especially the screenplay. And "To the Fore" (Hong Kong) is like a bad 80s drama and was ultimately one of the worst films I saw last year. 

Hoping to see "Men Who Saved the World" and "Heavenly Nomadic" before the end of 2016. 

2017 Foreign Oscar Predictions- MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA and OCEANIA (15 films)

Here's the third group...the films from The Middle East, Africa and Oceania.

NO CHANCE

15. MOROCCO- "A Mile in My Shoes"

14. LEBANON- "Very Big Shot" 

13. NEW ZEALAND- "A Flickering Truth"

12.  IRAQ- "El Clasico"

11. SAUDI ARABIA- "Barakah Meets Barakah"

It’s an honor to be nominated! These five underdogs won’t be able to advance but they are all worthy of a watch and of attention. I’ve seen the films from New Zealand and Lebanon…LEBANON has selected fun action-dramedy “Very Big Shot”, a “Wag the Dog”-esque satire about a small-time drug pusher who comes up with an increasingly complicated plan to smuggle drugs to the West by way of an increasingly real film production. It’s a good debut but a bit uneven and clearly at its best with the comic aspects of the story. NEW ZEALAND has selected an informative documentary about Afghanistan’s film heritage. I’ve already mentioned that documentaries are at a disadvantage here and while “Truth”  starts and finishes strong, it sags a little in the middle and may be confusing for those who don’t know about Afghanistan’s tragic recent history. From IRAQI KURDISTAN (but representing the whole nation of Iraq), we have comic road movie “El Clasico”, about two little people on a quixotic journey to Spain to deliver a gift to a prospective father-in-law’s favorite footballer. This Norwegian co-production is said to be fun and heartfelt but a bit light-weight. SAUDI ARABIA has sent a film for the second time and it’s probably the most interesting film on the whole list. Romantic comedy “Barakah Meets Barakah” is a romantic comedy from a country where dating and movie theatres are both banned. Much of the comedy comes from how the title couple try to have a date without breaking the law. By Saudi standards, the film is actually quite daring and it's amazed it was able to made at all. The film has been well-received everywhere for its spirit, but most think it's a work-in-progress from a promising new director and not an Oscar nominee. I loved it  but I'll admit that eviews aren’t as strong as the unfairly snubbed “Wadjda”. As for MOROCCO, they have once again chosen a social drama that nobody in the world has seen or heard of. “A Mile in My Shoes” is about a small-time hood who finds it impossible to live a straight and narrow life amidst the corruption and violence of his Casablanca neighborhood. Zero buzz, zero chance.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

10. JORDAN- "3000 Nights"

9.  YEMEN- "I Am Nojoom, Age 10, Divorced"

8.  SOUTH AFRICA- "Call Me Thief"

7.  TURKEY- "Cold of Kalandar"

6. PALESTINE- "The Idol"

Hany Abu-Assad has had both his earlier films submitted and nominated to represent his native PALESTINE but "The Idol" has not gotten the same level of praise as the controversial "Paradise Now" or more mainstream "Omar" (which I preferred). "The Idol" is the feel-good true story of Gazan singer Mohammed Assaf who overcame poverty and Israeli blockades to win the Arab Idol television singing content. The film is perfectly acceptable and has beautiful music to boot, but it's also predictable and largely forgettable. 

I would love to predict a nomination for war-torn YEMEN, which is submitting for the first time with the female-helmed "I Am Nojoom". It's about a ten-year old girl who is married off by her family to an old man to solve a family dispute. This really happens in Yemen (the director herself was a child bride) and the film has been warmly received at international festivals since it's premiere two years ago in Dubai. It took that long to get a domestic release. Variety calls the film important but "clumsy" and a nomination looks unlikely. 

TURKEY's arthouse "Cold of Kalandar" was the surprise Best Picture winner at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards and also won the Tokyo International Film Festival last year, but this slow tale of an impoverished Turkish family eking out a living in the countryside is probably too slow and arty to make an impact in Los Angeles. It's done better with international critics. SOUTH AFRICA and "Call Me Thief" has the opposite problem. They've chosen a very "local" Afrikaner tale about a local man who becomes a storyteller to stay alive in a South African prison. It's been a big hit at home and popular with local audiences, but it's a mainstream sort of film that I don't see resonating with international audiences as much. 

JORDAN has also selected a prison drama- Palestinian film "3000 Nights", about a pregnant Arab woman whose good deed ends up with her unjustly imprisoned in an Israeli jail, and her attempts to survive her "3000 Night" sentence raising her baby in jail. Reviews have been good-to-mixed but not good enough to make the next round. 

DARK HORSES-

5. ALGERIA- “The Well” (Le puits)

4. AUSTRALIA- “Tanna”

3. ISRAEL- “Sandstorm”

These three films are all realistic dark horses. It’s never wise to count out ISRAEL and their Arabic-language Bedouin drama “Sandstorm” already achieved a surprise victory at the Israel Ophir Awards (which received more press this year for a live onstage temper tantrum from the Culture Minister rather than for the nominated films) and now aims to do the same in Hollywood. “Sandstorm” is about a mother and daughter fighting against male-dominated traditions that are driving the girl into an unwanted marriage. Reviews have been positive but not universally so and this category rarely rewards films about women…but reviews in the US seem to be better than with European critics and Israel has quite a good record in this category. Another drama about Arab women is “Le puits”, a baity film from ALGERIA that nobody is talking about….The film concerns an Algerian town besieged by French forces during the war for independence. With the men at war, the town is populated almost entirely by women and children who, facing a drought, are forced to choose between being shot by French soldiers or dying of thirst.  It beat out the latest film from three-time Oscar nominee Rachid Bouchareb to represent Algeria. AUSTRALIA has chosen a Romeo & Juliet story made entirely in the neighboring island nation of Vanuatu.  It’s a slow film but it rewards the patient viewer with a memorable story shot in an alien environment as far removed from our daily lives as any other on earth….but one that is also universal and instantly relatable. Oscar seems to have lost its taste for the exotic cultural stories it used to favor, but “Tanna” is beautifully filmed and will impress the technical members of the committee (a bigger group of voters than most think).  

 

LIKELY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

2. IRAN- "The Salesman"

1. EGYPT- "Clash"

Egypt has been sending films to the Oscars for over 50 years (including some excellent ones) without any luck (though they got a Best Documentary Feature nod a few years ago for The Square). Will that change this year? I think maybe it will. “Clash” (Cannes 2016) has gotten excellent reviews for its story of a group of Egyptian protesters of all political persuasions who are locked together in a police van. Described as powerful, important and insightful (and promoted by self-described fan Tom Hanks) the film has an excellent chance of making the 9-film shortlist if the Academy doesn’t get confused by the politics. The Academy has recently shown a great deal of interest in Middle Eastern stories (as Algeria, Iran, Israel, Jordan and Palestine can attest). Speaking of IRAN, “The Salesman” by Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi should also be considered a front-runner. The film won Best Actor and Screenplay at Cannes 2016 and although it’s not considering Farhadi’s best, reviews have overall been positive and a lot of a high average score is all you need with the large committee. The film itself is a revenge thriller revolving around the cast of an Iranian production of American play “Death of a Salesman”. Farhadi’s “About Elly” and “The Past” were all considered frontrunner so Farhadi is not guaranteed a spot, but this should be considered a serious threat.  

And here at the statistics:

Number of countries from these regions who have participated in the past: 9 from the Middle 

East, 14 from Africa and 3 from Oceania

Number of countries participating this year:  9 from the Middle East (including debutante Yemen), 4 from Africa and 2 from Oceania.

Number of debuts: One: YEMEN

Number of countries opting out:  The major absences are TUNISIA and ETHIOPIA. The Ethiopians submitted films the past two years, and probably did quite well on both occasions. Tunisia hadn’t submitted a film since 2002 but on September 2^nd,  they announced they were returning to the competition with the exciting new drama “Flower of Aleppo”….but then announced “As I Open My Eyes” on September 21. Both stories seemed official (although the later story actually included the names of the committee members). Some have speculated that two rival committees sent two rival films. Tunisian newspapers said “Flower of Aleppo” wasn’t eligible because it hadn’t been released in Tunisia but that the two films were disqualified because of “confusion” (that isnot a reason AMPAS would disqualify a film). Nobody seems to know what really happened but neither of these critically acclaimed Tunisian films appeared on the final list. Hopefully we'll see "Aleppo" on the list next year. 

Also, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Fiji, Kuwait and a bunch of other “one-time only” African countries bowed out, but that didn’t surprise anyone.

Already Seen: 5- The films from Australia, Lebanon, New Zealand, Palestine and Saudi Arabia are all legally available via VOD.

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing:  I’m a big Farhadi fan so definitely "The Salesman" from IRAN.

Feature Debuts:   SIX. Lotfi Bouchouchi (Algeria), Martin Butler (Australia), Mir-Jean Bou Chaaya (Lebanon), Daryne Joshua (South Africa), Said Khallaf (Morocco) and Mahmoud Sabbagh (Saudi Arabia)

Number of Female Directors:  FOUR. Pietra Brettkelly (New Zealand), Mai Masri (Jordan), Khadija al-Salami (Yemen) and Elite Zexer (Israel)

Oldest and Youngest Directors: The oldest is probably Australia's Martin Butler, while the youngest is surely 27-year old Mir-Jean Bou Chaaya from Lebanon. 

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:   9 of the films are chiefly in Arabic (including Israel), while two others (Iran and New Zealand) are in Persian. The other four are in Afrikaans, Kurdish, Turkish and Nauvhal, a language spoken by around 5000 people in Vanuatu, and possibly the most obscure language ever represented in the history of the Foreign Language competition. 

Number of Animated Films and Documentaries:  One documentary from New Zealand

Number of comedies: 3- Iraq, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia although all of them are kind of dramedies.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist:  Five or six?

Highest profile film:  Definitely Asghar Farhadi’s “The Salesman”, although buzz for Egyptian drama “Clash” has been topping that.

Oscar History: We have two Oscar nominees in play. Asghar Farhadi is representing Iran for the fourth time- he won on his second try for “The Past” in 2012. Hany Abu-Assad is representing Palestine for the third time- he got Oscar nominations on both previous occasions for “Paradise Now” and “Omar”.

Algeria, Iran and South Africa have all won the award once while Israel holds the record for the most nominations (10) without a win. Palestine and Jordan have also made the nomination stage, while Australia, Morocco and Turkey have made it to the shortlist.

Best & Worst Decisions:  Definitely YEMEN and SAUDI ARABIA, which made the decision to enter the race at all. Also, EGYPT whose Academy is surprisingly courageous in choosing controversial submissions and ALGERIA which went on quality rather than connections..... SOUTH AFRICA probably chose the wrong film. 

Controversies and Changes:  I've already outlined the Tunisian problems above. CAMEROON also tried to submit a film for the first time since 1980 with Bollywood drama "Yahan Ameena Bikti Hai", but the film was 100% Indian and the Cameroonian was so laughably minimal that the film was deservedly disqualified. 

With Afghanistan and Armenia disqualified for nationality issues, I'm surprised nobody bothered to ask about JORDAN which submitted a Palestinian film. 

Most Notable Omissions:  South Africa had quite a few films to choose from, including Darrell Roodt's biopic "Shooting Star" and "Dis ek Anna"....Algeria dumped Rachid Bouchareb's "Road to Istanbul" (which didn't have great reveiws) and Iran didn't have enough room for local production "Life+1 Day". 

Familiar Faces:  No household names, though you'll probably recognize Shahab Hosseini ("A Separation") and Taraneh Alidoosti ("About Elly") from "The Salesman" and Lebanon's Nadine Labaki ("Caramel") who has a small role in "The Idol". 

Last year's race:   These countries submitted 13 films last year, obtaining a single nomination for JORDAN's "Theeb". I saw "Theeb" along with the livestock-themed "Wanted 18" from Palestine" and "Lamb" from Ethiopia. My favorite was "Lamb" (A-), though I also liked "Theeb" (B+) but was left a bit indifferent to "The Wanted 18" (C+). 

The first-round screenings finish on December 12.....

Next: GROUP IV: The 18 films of Asia