Wednesday, December 21, 2022
FINAL PREDICTIONS
OSCARS 2023: The Submissions from Eastern Europe (22 films)
And here's the last (and largest batch)! I've spent most of the last month travelling and sadly have only seen a few of these films, even though it's by far the most interesting group! But the list will be announced later today so there's no time left....
Number of Countries That Have Participated in the Past: 24
Number of Countries
Participating this year: 22
FRONTRUNNERS:
1. UKRAINE- “Klondike” (Letterboxd: 3.5)
2. ARMENIA- “Aurora’s Sunrise” (3.6)
3. ALBANIA- “A Cup of
Coffee and New Shoes On” (3.5)
Like at Eurovision, Ukraine's arthouse drama "Klondike", about the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, will benefit from the sentimental feelings and pro-Ukraine sentiment. Don't get me wrong, "Klondike" is supposed to be a very good film. I'm seeing it later this week, but I've heard it's a little too arthouse to make it under normal circumstances. But emotion will help.
Armenia's "Aurora's Sunrise" is an animated documentary about the fascinating life of genocide survivor Aurora Mardiganian, but it's also an original work of art. Far better than "Waltz with Bashir" and emotionally equal (and visually superior) to "Flee", this will be on the shortlist if enough people see it, and I think it would have qualified easily under the old rules. (Why is it not on the Documentary Feature list? It could potentially win.....)
Albanian wild card "A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On" is just a hunch that probably won't pay off but I'm still ranking it high. This quiet indie is about a pair of deaf and mute adult twins (played by Portuguese twins who learned Albanian Sign Language for the film) who learn that they have a condition that will make them lose their sight and, therefore, their entire world. Reviews have been strong and the plot couldn't get more "Oscarier".....but it's true that nobody has heard of the film and it's going to need a lot of word of mouth on the committee...
DARK HORSES:
4. POLAND- “EO” (3.6)
A STRONG SHOWING:
7. SLOVAKIA- “Victim” (3.1)
8. MACEDONIA- “Happiest Man in the World” (3.4)
9. MOLDOVA- “Carbon” (3.2)
10. ROMANIA- “Immaculate” (3.2)
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
11. KOSOVO- “Looking for Venera” (3.3)
12. SLOVENIA- “Orchestra” (3.5)
13. LATVIA- “January” (3.5)
14. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Il Boemo” (3.3)
AN UPHILL BATTLE:
15. SERBIA- “Darkling” (3.3)
16. ESTONIA- “Kalev” (3.7)
17. LITHUANIA- “Pilgrims” (2.9)
18. HUNGARY- “Blockade” (3.3)
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:
19. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “A Ballad” (3.1)
20. GEORGIA- “A Long Break” (3.0)
21. MONTENEGRO- “Elegy of Laurel” (2.8)
22. AZERBAIJAN- “Creators” (2.2)
As always, I'm so happy that the smaller countries send films. Even when they're not nominated, they're almost always a fascinating look at the country, its people, its language and its culture. I've discovered a lot of wonderful films and directors among these underdogs.
Azerbaijan has had a great film year with a number of films at international film festivals. However, they have explicably decided to send a 60-minute documentary about Soviet architecture (it's possibly the others didn't get screened in cinemas). Needless to say, this is a non-starter. Neighboring Georgia, selected "A Long Break", a (very) talky drama about a man plotting revenge at a school reunion. Georgia is my favorite country to visit, and I love Georgian cinema but I think this will lose a lot in the translation...I liked it because I know Georgian culture but I still felt like I was at dinner party with people I didn't know.
From the former Yugoslavia, "Elegy of Laurel" was the only film that entered to represent Montenegro....This odd little movie features an old man whose wife leaves him at a health spa, whereupon he goes on a journey into the woods and meets a woman who used to be a snake. It keeps the viewer's attention but it really doesn't make too much sense. From neighboring Bosnia, "A Ballad" is Aida Begic's first venture into (slightly) lighter storylines, after years of making films about the Yugoslav wars. Unfortunately, critics haven't warmed to her new film as much as her earlier efforts. This story of an unemployed mother seeking custody of her daughter often feels as aimless as its main character,
Who’s Missing?: RUSSIA controversially announced that it would boycott
the Oscars due to their own brutal invasion of neighboring Ukraine, failing to
submit a film for the first time since 1993. The head of the Russian Selection Committee-
Oscar-nominated director Pavel Chukhrai- said he wasn’t consulted and that he
had wanted to send a film. The only other country that’s absent is Russia’s ally,
BELARUS, which submitted films from 2018-2020.
Genres: Slovenia and Moldova have sent comedies. Armenia
and Azerbaijan have sent documentaries (Armenia’s submission is also an animated
film). Serbia's is almost (but not quite) a horror film.
I’ve Already Seen: 8- Armenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia, but
I have five more screeners waiting to be watched before the end of the
year….Too much travel recently!
Number I Predicted
Correctly: 9 out of 22…..Armenia,
Bulgaria, Latvia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine.
Film I’m Most Excited To
See: Definitely Moldova’s absurdist
black comedy “Carbon” and Albania’s heart-rending “A Cup of Coffee and New
Shoes On”
Big Three Festivals: Very few!
· Cannes- Poland (Jury Prize)
· Berlin- Ukraine (Audience Award, 2nd Place)
· Venice- Lithuania (Best Film, Horizons Section), Macedonia, Romania,
Slovakia
Oldest and Youngest Directors- 84-year old Jerzy Skolimowski (Poland) is by far
the oldest director in the entire competition (69-year old Rachid Bouchareb is
#2). The youngest is probably 30-year old Monica Stan (Romania)
Languages Represented- It’s a very confusing question. So many of the
plots of this year’s Eastern European films feature a variety of languages:
Slovenians visiting German-speaking Austria, Ukrainian migrants in the Czech
Republic, Russians invading a bilingual region of Ukraine, an Armenian refugee
escaping to the United States via Europe, a Czech artist
living in Italy etc.
All I can say is that five of the films are in the Serbo-Croatian
languages, two are in Albanian, and the rest are in a mishmash of Bulgarian, Czech,
German, Hungarian, Italian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovenian, Ukrainian,
the three Baltic languages (Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian) and the three
Caucasian languages (Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian).
How Many Have a Chance
at the Shortlist?- Maybe
eight or nine?
Most Likely to Get Shorlisted/Nominated for the First Time- Probably Ukraine, for partly sentimental reasons
Buzziest Films: Probably “EO”
Letterboxd Ratings (as
of 19 December 2022): Best: Croatia (3.8), Worst: Azerbaijan (2.2, but
with only 5 votes) and Montenegro (2.8)
Controversies and
Changes: Of course, the biggest
controversy was the Russian Academy’s flip-flop and their decision to boycott
the Oscars.
Bulgaria originally
selected “Mother”, which is set in Kenya, but was informed that it had too much
English. The director said that the producers had determined it was more than
50% in Bulgarian and Swahili and were surprised by the decision, noting that it
was unclear to her whether they were supposed to count time, or words, or what…..
Oscar History: Bosnia’s Aida Begić is representing her country for the fourth time following “Snow” (2008), “Children of Sarajevo” (2012) and “Never Leave Me” (2018).
Five other directors are
here for a second time: Shamil Aliyev (Azerbaijan, “Steppe Man”), Viestur
Kairish (Latvia, “The Chronicles of Melanie”), Gentian Koçi (Albania, “Daybreak”),
Teona Strugar Mitevska (Macedonia, “I’m From Titov Veles), and Jerzy Skolimowski
(Poland, “11 Minutes”)
Of the 22 competing
countries, only four have won (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland),
four others have been nominated (Estonia, Georgia, Macedonia, Romania), and
three others shortlisted (Bulgaria, Kosovo, Serbia). The other eleven are
waiting for their first trip to the second round.
Most Notable
Omissions:
The most surprising
omissions were Oscar winner Danis Tanovic’ “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”
(Bosnia), a topical comedy about life under COVID-19 and “RMN”, the latest from
Romanian auteur Cristian Mungiu. Oscar winner Jan Sverak’s “Bethlehem Night” (Czech
Republic) was also shortlisted and snubbed, but it was never expected to be
selected.
Also missing: “The
Staffroom” (Croatia), “The Last Race” (Czech Republic), “Sleeping Beast” (Estonia),
which reportedly lost by one vote after a reportedly “tense” debate, “Otar’s
Death” (Georgia), “The Game” (Hungary), “The Balcony Movie” (Poland) and co-production
“The Nightsiren”, which was shortlisted by both the Czechs and Slovaks.
I was also surprised by
the omission of Bujar Alimani’s “The Albanian Virgin” but that may have been “too
German” to compete for Albania.
Last Year’s Race: I really liked a lot of the Eastern
Euro films from last year especially “Tereza37” from Croatia, “Brighton 4th”
from Georgia, “The Pit” from Latvia, “Bad Luck Banging” from Romania and “Bad
Roads” from Ukraine (all A-), all of which would have made worthy nominees (but
none of them even made the shortlist ☹). followed by Armenia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kosovo and Macedonia (B+),
Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Slovenia (B-), Lithuania, Poland,
Russia and Serbia (C+), Estonia and Slovakia (C-). I failed to see the films
from Albania and the Czech Republic.
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
OSCARS 2023: The Submissions from The Americas (16 films)
Number of Countries That Have
Participated in the Past: 22
Number of Countries
Participating this year: 16
(more statistics below)
FRONTRUNNERS:
1. ARGENTINA- "Argentina, 1985" (Letterboxd: 4.2)
2. MEXICO- "Bardo" (3.7)
According to some, "Argentina, 1985" is going to win the Oscar. And although critics are split on whether "Bardo" is a good movie and nobody really thinks "Bardo" will win, Iñárritu's name mean it still has a good shot at making the second round.
"Argentina 1985" is a legal drama focused on prosecuting the crimes of the Argentina military dictatorship that ruled the country for seven brutal years in the 70s and 80s. This subject was at the forefront ("The Official Story") and the background ("Secret in Their Eyes") of Argentina's two previous Oscar wins. It's said to be a very well-made film and while it may struggle to get first-place votes, its definitely acclaimed enough and well-liked enough to easily make it to the shortlist. It was the only Latin American film to get a Golden Globe nod.
"Bardo" is divisive and messy and it was way overlong until Iñárritu cut 22 minutes (though it's still over 2 1/2 hours, and the third-longest of the 92 submissions). It's a semi-autobiographical film about a journalist returning home to Mexico after twenty years away. The edited version is getting better reviews and although the film isn't "safe", Oscar loves Iñárritu and it's difficult to see him missing the first cut....But the Golden Globe snub is a bad sign....
CONTENDERS:
3. BOLIVIA- "Utama" (3.7)
4. BRAZIL- "Mars One" (4.3)
5. PANAMA- "Birthday Boy" (Cumpleañero) (2.6)
BOLIVIA
In A Nutshell: A young man visits his grandparents in a remote drought-stricken region of Potosi.
Pros: It's a critical darling, it won the International Feature award at Sundance, visually beautiful and it seems to be the perfect mix of foreign exoticism alongside a strong narrative. Since I live in Bolivia right now, it's the film that I'm really rooting for tomorrow. Screened in New York (and other) mainstream cinemas.
Cons: It's a slow-moving film from a country that's never been recognized before.
BRAZIL
In A Nutshell: An close-knit Afro-Brazilian family lives their lives with a little more stress and caution after the election of far-right President Bolsonaro.
Pros: Like "Utama", this was warmly received at Sundance. The film scores extremely well with audiences and sometimes these "popular" tastes match Oscar more than arthouse critics faves. 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and the highest Letterboxd score in the group. Just got a U.S. distributor.
Cons: Oscar hasn't always warmed to stories about Black (though this category has been a bit more willing....) Some of the Brazilian politics may go over Oscar voters' heads (though Americans certainly understand racism and the rise of the far right)
PANAMA
In A Nutshell: A 40-something man invites his friends and family to a party at a beach house where he announces he is going to take his own life.
Pros: It's just a hunch....but I think this one will play very well with the Academy. A baity plot from a country that just missed out last year.
Cons: The director's last film ("Everybody Changes') veered heavily into telenovela territory. No buzz, no festival play....(but you could say the same for "Plaza Catedral")
MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
6. COLOMBIA- "Kings of the World" (Los reyes del mundo) (4.1)
7. VENEZUELA- "The Box" (La caja) (3.1)
8. CANADA- "Eternal Spring" (Printemps Éternel) (3.2)
Although it should be representing Mexico instead of Venezuela, "La caja" (The Box) is quite a good film, following a 12-year old from Mexico City who begins following a man he believes to be the father who abandoned the family ten years before. The film doubles as an expose about the exploitation of workers and migrants seeking a better life in Mexico and/or the USA. Lorenzo Vigas directed one of my favorite Venezuelan submissions- "From Afar"- a few years ago and while that film was better, "The Box" would be a deserving shortlister. However, "From Afar" didn't get shortlisted and "Box" isn't doing nearly as well with critics. It starts slow...maybe that's why? While I easily guessed one of the film's two "twists", the other one came as quite a surprise.
Seeking to follow in the footsteps of "Flee" and "Waltz with Bashir", Canada has selected an animated documentary, this time about the brutal repression of the Falun Gong spiritual cult in China (yes, they deserve the freedom to practice, but it's still very much a cult). This is a confusing one, and I'm honestly not sure how AMPAS will feel about it. Curzon Home Cinema has blocked my VPN so I haven't been able to see it myself. AMPAS hasn't often gone for gang tales but "Kings of the World", from Colombia won the Grand Prize at the San Sebastian Festival so it does have a chance. I think "Kings" is likely to just miss out like "Monos" and "Monga"....but we'll see.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
9. URUGUAY- "The Employer & the Employee" (El empleado y el patrón) (3.2)
10. CHILE- "Blanquita" (3.2)
11. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-
"Bantú Mama" (3.2)
12. GUATEMALA- "Silence of the Mole" (El silencio del topo) (3.5)
"Bantu Mama" has the support of Oscar nominee Ava DuVernay and Netflix but it's honestly probably the most forgettable of the 24 submissions I've seen this year. Like Brazil and France, this is a drama set in the country's community of African descent. A French woman (also of African descent) smuggles drugs into the Dominican Republic, escapes the police and finds shelter with a family of three parentless young people in one of the country's most dangerous neighborhoods. It's well-acted and competently made, but won't contend for the shortlist. From South America's two most developed countries, we have yet another film about sexual abuse in the Catholic church (Chile) and another about the tensions between upper-class and working-class (Uruguay). I think the Uruguayan film looks great (the Chilean one less so....) but neither film has good-enough reviews to compete for the top tier.Guatemala's powerful but low-key documentary "Silence of the Mole" has the best reviews in this group....but despite the recent success of "Honeyland", "Collective" etc. documentaries still have an uphill battle in this category. I think "Mole", an acclaimed film about exposing the atrocities of Guatemala's military dictatorship in the 1980s, will get lost amidst its 90+ competitors.
NO CHANCE:
13. COSTA RICA- "Domingo and the Mist" (Domingo y la niebla) (Letterboxd: 3.2)
14. PERU- "Moon Heart" (El corazón de la luna) (3.3)
15. PARAGUAY-
"Eami" (3.2)
16. ECUADOR-
"Lo invisible" (3.2)
These four odd films may have their fans but they won't have any chance at making the nomination stage. I've seen two of them.
"Eami", from Paraguay, is clearly a labor of love, focusing on the culture and the sad plight of the Ayoreo, an indigenous group numbering only 5000-6000 people. The film discusses their mythology and their persecution at the hands of Paraguayan settlers and ranchers. The problem is that the film makes no linear sense. It's 80 minutes of mythological poetry, strange imagery, long-shots of nature and odd camera angles. It may have won Rotterdam, but it's a non-starter here. "Lo Invisible", a drama about a woman with severe post-partum depression, is Javier Andrade's second shot at Oscar. I preferred the first- "Porcelain Horse"- which was a fairly engaging soap opera with queer sensibilities. "Lo invisible" takes its time revealing the history of Luisa, a wealthy. It's so slow that the audience (or maybe just me) loses interest....and even by the confusing end of the film, you don't know that much more than when you started. A great lead performance, but a disappointing film.
I don’t know too much about Costa Rica's environmental ghost story "Domingo and the Mist" but reviews have generally been positive but unenthusiastic and Escalante’s previous film required patience that Oscar voters may not have.
Possibly the oddest film in this year's competition, "Moon Heart" from Peru is about a sci-fi/fantasy film about an elderly homeless woman and a "mechanical robot angel". There's very little information about it online, but what there is sounds daringly original, very weird and not entirely successful. I'm excited to see it, but it's definitely not going to be competitive here.
Who’s Missing?: With Puerto Rico no longer invited, the only
major country missing this year is Cuba. Also out: Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua
and Suriname, though none of them appeared to have any eligible contenders.
Genres: Canada, Guatemala and (sort of) Paraguay sent
documentaries; Canada’s is also an animated film. In all honesty, I don’t think
Paraguay’s film should count as a Documentary, but it’s on the Oscar longlist
so I guess the filmmakers think it is one. Peru’s film is a weird sci-fi/fantasy;
the other twelve are straight dramas.
I’ve Already Seen: Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Venezuela. I
plan to see the front runners from Argentina (Amazon) and Mexico (Netflix) before
the end of the year.
Number I Predicted Correctly: 8 out of 16; Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Paraguay. I was pretty shocked by the choices made by Peru
and Venezuela.
Film I’m Most Excited To
See: Definitely Panama’s “Birthday
Boy”
Big Three Festivals:
· Cannes- Costa
Rica, Uruguay
· Berlin-
None
· Venice- Argentina (FIPRESCI Award), Chile (Best Screenplay), Mexico, Venezuela (UNICEF Award)
But it’s important to note that many other films won awards at other prominent festivals, such as Sundance (Bolivia), Rotterdam (Paraguay) and San Sebastian (Colombia).
Oldest and Youngest Directors- Alejandro González Iñárritu (Mexico) is 59 while
Gabriel Martins (Brazil) is 34.
Languages Represented- Unsurprisingly, 13 out of 16 films are wholly or mostly
in Spanish (including Bolivia, which is roughly 50% in Spanish and 50% in Quechua).
The others are in
Portuguese (Brazil), Mandarin Chinese (Canada) and Ayoreo (Paraguay), an endangered
indigenous language
How Many Have a Chance
at the Shortlist?- Maybe
six?
Most Likely to Get
Nominated/Shortlisted for the First Time- Bolivia 🇧🇴
Buzziest Films: “Argentina 1985”
Letterboxd Ratings (as
of 19 December 2022): Best: Brazil (4.3), Worst: Panama (2.6)
Controversies and
Changes: The producers of “The
Employer and the Employee” sort of defied the rules. They entered their film for
consideration last year but it was not selected; so they changed the film’s
release date and entered it again this year. But that doesn’t violate any rules.
Oscar
History: Obviously
the big name is Alejandro González Iñárritu (Mexico), who has won five Oscars,
including Best Director twice for the English-language “Birdman” and “The
Revenant”. He also has five additional nominations, including two in the
Foreign Film category for “Amores Perros” and “Biutiful”.
Four other directors
have been here before: Ecuador’s Javier Andrade (2013; “Mejor no hablar de
ciertas cosas”), Costa Rica’s Ariel Escalante (2017; “The Sound of Things”), Panama’s
Arturo Montenegro (2019, “Everybody Changes”), and Venezuela’s Lorenzo Vigas (2016;
“From Afar”)
Of the sixteen
countries, four have won in this category (Argentina, Canada, Chile and Mexico),
three more have been nominated (Brazil, Colombia, Peru) and three have been shortlisted
(Guatemala, Panama and Venezuela). Six are waiting for their first mention
(Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Paraguay, and- sort of- Uruguay)
Most Notable Omissions: Not a whole lot….I expected “Official Competition” to be hot competition for “Argentina 1985” but it was not considered by the Argentinian committee, probably because it was “too Spanish”. The saddest omission for me was Venezuelan thriller “Jezabel” which was defeated by “The Box”, which was really a Mexican film.
Not selected: “Falcon
Lake” (Canada), “1976” and “My Imaginary Country” (Chile), “Amparo” (Colombia),
“Parsley” (Dominican Republic), “Nudo Mixteco” (Mexico), “Husera” (Peru), and “Me
and the Beasts” (Venezuela)
Most Famous Faces: Ricardo Darín (Argentina, 1985) and Nahuel Pérez
Biscayart (Employer and the Employee)
Last Year’s Race: The best film from the region last
year was definitely Canada’s “Drunken Birds” (A-). I was sad that it didn’t
make the shortlist. Also good: Brazil and Panama (B+). I also saw the films
from Ecuador (B), Dominican Republic, Haiti, Paraguay and Venezuela (B-), Argentina
and Chile (C+), Mexico (C) and Bolivia (C-). I didn’t see “Memoria” (Colombia),
“Clara Sola” (Costa Rica), “Manco Capac” (Peru) or “Broken Glass Theory” (Uruguay).