BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS (24 countries)

It's that time of year again! Here are my predictions for the countries of Eastern Europe. Last year I got 9 of the 18 submissions correct....and I'm feeling more confident this year. Let's see.....

Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania and tiny Montenegro (!) have particularly difficult decisions to make this year. 

Last year, this region only got two spots on the shortlist (for Czech Republic and Latvia) while they deserved at least three....Latvia, plus Albania and Romania. 

 

  ALBANIA- “Luna Park” Albania should have a fairly easy decision this year. I predicted “Luna Park”, a coming-of-age tale set during the early days of Albania’s chaotic and violent post-Communist era, in 2023. The film was delayed but finally premiered to excellent reviews at Thessaloniki 2024. Director Florenc Papas was selected in 2020 for his debut feature “Open Door”, and “Luna Park” marks the return to Albanian cinema of local star Nik Xhelilaj, who has been working mostly in Germany and Turkey for the past decade. Also in its favor….it’s the only Albanian film on the international circuit this year and I’ve no idea what else they would send.

  ARMENIA- “Thus Spoke the Wind” For now, Armenia’s submission looks likely to be “Thus Spoke the Wind” (Karlovy Vary), a crime drama set in a poor village, seen through the eyes of a child. I was originally going to predict “After Dreaming”, an abstract non-linear “meditation on war” that premiered at a Berlinale sidebar in 2025 and was the only Armenian feature competing at the local Golden Apricot Film Festival. Like “Amerikatsi”, it has an Armenian-American director….but this film looks way too weird to repeat “Amerikatsi”’s shortlist feat so I think it will come second place. Also possible:  documentaries “Alone”, about a French filmmaker learning about her Armenia roots by researching ancestors who lived during the 1915 Armenian Genocide, or “Fight”, about a young girl who wishes to be a veterinarian against the wishes of her conservative family. The Armenian Academy got some flack last year for picking a comedy over an acclaimed nationalist documentary….but I personally loved the quirky “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” which was a breath of fresh air among last year’s overdramatic submissions.

  AZERBAIJAN- “Motherland” Azerbaijan doesn’t usually send a film – they’ve only done so three times in the past ten years - but now that I’m living in Baku again I really hope they return! And the good news is that they launched an official call for submissions in June so things are looking up. This year Azerbaijan had a very warmly received film called “My Magical World” at the GoEast film festival in Germany and a weird arty film Out of Competition at Venice by prolific director Hilal Baydarov. Let’s hope they send “My Magical World”, which is about a talented aspiring folk singer who is trying to get on a prominent local TV show. The problem is that I don’t think it has screened in Azerbaijani cinemas…or cinemas in any other country. The most likely candidate that did play in Azerbaijani cinemas is probably “Motherland”, a patriotic film set during the wars with Armenia in the 1990s. It was advertised as the first film to be partially filmed in the territories recovered from Armenian occupation in 2020. Most importantly, director Ilgar Safat got the Azerbaijanis to fill out the paperwork and submit one of his previous films in 2010. They also could send “Azerbaijan Atabəyləri”, a historical costume drama that looks like the movies neighboring Kazakhstan likes to send. But it’s also very possible neither of these has any English subtitles….“My Magical World” would really be their best bet.

  BELARUS- “Kinoshiki” Of course Belarus will not submit a film. They sent a few films from 1994-1996 and again 2018-2020 but were never a regular participant in this category. Since their 2020 disqualification and their 2022 backing for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they’ve been absent. If the government-allied committee did send a film, it would likely be “Kinoshiki”, a comedy about filmmaking that opened the national Listapad Film Festival in 2024. If they organize a committee in exile, then it would probably be “Motherland”, a documentary about army violence, by two Belarusian filmmakers, and which got financial support from the EU.

  BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “The Pavilion” Bosnia is likely to send black comedy “The Pavilion”, starring Rade Šerbedžija, which will open the Sarajevo Film Festival in August. It’s about a residents who rebel against care in a substandard nursing home and could be Bosnia's strongest entry in years. Bosnia usually does not have trouble getting a qualifying release for its Oscar contenders but if “The Pavilion” isn’t eligible, I suspect they may send “Blum – Masters of their Own Destiny”, a documentary by Oscar nominee and Berlinale Golden Bear winner Jasmila Zbanic (“Quo Vadis Aida?”, “Grbavica”) about a Yugoslavian Jew who became one of his country’s leading industrialists during the Communist era. Two dark horses: “The Will”, another dark comedy, this time a sequel to a popular film, set in a village in the waning days of Communism (it would also require a qualifying release); and “When Santa Was a Communist”, a third black comedy (the Bosnians do these well), which could benefit from its U.S.-based director.

  BULGARIA- “Windless” I hate predicting the same film two years in a row but “Windless” wasn’t released in Bulgaria until March 2025 after its successful premiere at Karlovy Vary in 2024. Since then, “Windless” won Best Bulgarian Film at two of Bulgaria’s three main precursor awards (“Triumph”, Bulgaria’s disappointing Oscar submission last year, won the third). It’s about a Bulgarian man who returns home from abroad to settle his father’s estate, and who becomes unwillingly involved in old conflicts. Its main competition is “Made in EU”, which is premiering in Venice. Stephan Komandarev is an enormously respected Bulgarian director who has been picked three times and who got Bulgaria’s only shortlist spot (he deserved a second for “Blaga’s Lessons”). “Made in EU”, about the exploitation of garment workers and the fear and chaos of the early days of COVID-19, is likely to defeat “Windless” but I think it will be eligible next year. If neither gets selected, the two dark horse runner-ups are stories featuring handicapped protagonists: “Tarika”, a drama about a superstitious village who believes that a disabled local girl has supernatural powers, and “Wingless” (confusing since the frontrunner is “Windless”), an uplifting true story of a Bulgarian athlete who continues to compete after losing both arms. Likely to appear on the Bulgarian longlist: sports biopic “Gundi: Legend of Love” and village dramedy “Wild Strawberries”. Probably not eligible: comedy “Black Sea”, about an African-American in Bulgaria, which has two American directors and I think it’s more than 50% in English.

  CROATIA- “Fiume o morte!” Three of the four films I predicted would contend to represent Croatia last year didn’t get a qualifying release until this year (“Celebration”, “Frka” and “Wrath of God”). And ten new Croatian films (not all of which are eligible) screened at this year’s Pula Film Festival in July, where two documentaries (“Fiume o morte!”, “Peacemaker”) and three fiction features (“Drazen”, “Good Children” and “Sandbag Dam”) shared the main awards. To that list of eight, I’m going to add dark comedy “South Wind”, which opened Pula and got pretty great reviews, even though it didn’t win anything. Hybrid documentary “Fiume o morte!” does NOT look like Oscar’s cup of tea…But this anti-fascist film about citizens of the town of Rijeka re-enacting scenes from a famous Italian occupation, has been a critical darling that reviewers say is creative, funny and original…and it was the big winner at the Pula Film Festival with six awards, and it also won a major award at Rotterdam and Best Picture at the Golden Apricot Film Festival in Yerevan. The Croatian Academy usually goes with something unusual and edgy, rarely choosing the favorite (“Safe Place” was a notable exception). In second place- “Celebration”, a divisive historical drama that was the big winner at Pula last year. Rounding out the Top Five in a strong year- “South Wind”, a dark comedy about the residents of an apartment building in Split, “Sandbag Dam”, a critically-acclaimed LGBT drama (but I doubt conservative Croatia will send gay films two years in a row…), and “Frka”, a youthful “Run Lola Run”-esque thriller. Unlikely to premiere in time: “God Will Not Help” (Sarajevo), about a Latina bride who moves to a rural community…..Croatian arthouse films usually take awhile to reach cinemas. Oddly enough, last year’s submission- “Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day” – got beautiful reviews but didn’t seem to get any kind of international release (and the official Croatian film catalogue doesn’t mention that it ever premiered locally either). It was the first time in 25 years that Croatia picked a film from outside the Pula universe….usually the main showcase for Croatian cinema.

  CZECH REPUBLIC- “Broken Voices” The Czech Academy has brought us the first controversy of the year. It sent its voters a shortlist of three films, but it “encouraged voters” to vote for “Broken Voices”. Czech voters and rival films said this was “manipulative” and unfair. The Czech Academy said they were simply offering a recommendation as to which film had the best chance in the U.S., and that voters could choose their favorite film regardless. Even before the controversy, I had already predicted that the three Czech frontrunners were “Broken Voices” (Karlovy Vary), “Caravan” (Cannes Un Certain Regard) and Agnieska Holland’s “Kafka” (Toronto). “Broken Voices” and “Caravan” made the Czech shortlist alongside documentary “I’m Not Everything I Want to Be”. Karlovy Vary is considered the most prestigious showcase of Czech cinema and this year the only Czech film in competition was “Broken Voices”, a drama based on a real-life child abuse scandal at a girl’s choir. “Caravan” is a drama about the exhausted mother of a mentally handicapped son whose flees the country to Italy in an RV caravan. “Broken Voices” seems to have better reviews than “Caravan” so it should be selected unless there is a backlash against the Czech “recommendation”.  

 ESTONIA- “Frank” Estonia has had a very quiet year and they don’t have many strong contenders. Their highest-profile film is a gory horror-musical called “Chainsaws were Singing” that I’ve heard is wonderfully hilarious...and Estonia has sent weird genre movies in the past…but this may be a bit much. I think they will quietly send “Frank”, a small but very well-reviewed film about a violent young man desperately trying to make a new start in a new town. Period detective drama “The Shadow”, dysfunctional family drama “One-Dimensional Man” (too much English????), and political documentary “Rebel with a Bow Tie” will contend with “Chainsaws” to be the Estonian runner-up. On a side note, it’s really a shame that thriller “Lioness” couldn’t change its release date last year by just a few days. Estonia foolishly selected the awful “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” last year….but “Lioness” would have done well this year. 

  GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Georgia almost always chooses a last-minute release so I’m banking on “Dry Leaf”, which is premiering at Locarno in a few weeks. Director Alexandre Koberidze came oh-so-close to representing Georgia with “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?” in a competitive year. The three-hour “Dry Leaf” is about a man visiting a number of Georgian villages to piece together the details surrounding a missing photographer. There are also two very strong contenders that have already premiered –  “Panopticon” (Karlovy Vary 2024), a gritty drama about an incel that won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary last year and “Holy Electricity” (Locarno 2024), a quirky docudrama about two teens who make neon crosses, and which just won Best Picture at Georgia’s national film awards. The rest of the top 5 options are “Venice” (Beijing), a Georgian “Two Days, One Night” made by a previously submitted director, and “Blueberry Dreams” (CPH:DOX), a documentary about a family living Georgia’s border with occupied Abkhazia. Dark horse: Russian co-production “Snowflakes in My Yard” got a Best Film nomination at Russia’s Nika Awards.  "Panopticon" looks like the most interesting option, and one of the films I'm most excited to see from the region. 

 

  HUNGARY- “Growing Down” "Orphan" I'm changing my prediction as I noticed that Hungary has done a lot of "qualifying releases" for the Oscars in the past few years. I'm changing my vote to "Orphan". The past two Best Picture winners at the Hungarian Film Awards (“Blockade” and “Semmelweis”) got sent to the Oscars. That could happen again. This year’s winner was “How Could I Live With You?”, a popular musical-comedy which just became the biggest Hungarian box-office hit in modern Hungarian history. But the Hungarian Academy tends to choose very serious films so I think it will lose out to “Growing Down”, a B+W drama that competed in the Best First Feature category at Berlinale 2025. It’s about a man who witnesses his 12-year old son causing a serious accident, forcing him to decide whether to lie to the authorities. Musicals are hard to translate…so “Growing Down” seems the better option. Three films by previously submitted directors- “But What About Tomi?” (friendship between two alcoholics), “Jimmy Jaguar” (an arty horror film, a genre that Hungary has picked before) and “Vulture’s Wake” (a Hungarian “Big Chill”) could also contend, as could “Gone Running”, about a group of women who join a marathon to honor a dead relative. Dark horse: Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes has a baity new film premiering  in Venice and due to be released in Hungary in October. “Orphan”, his second film since “Son of Saul”, is about a boy growing up during the Communist era who meets his brutish, abusive father that his mother told him had died a hero. If Hungary arranges a qualifying release, it should be able to beat “Growing Down”.

  KOSOVO- “The Stork” In 2021, Kosovo’s Visar Morina deserved an Oscar nomination for “Exile”. In 2022, Kosovo almost got one when “Hive” was shortlisted. Two years later, Kosovo gave up entirely. Two years ago, they received four eligible submissions and refused to send any, and last year Kosovar filmmakers lamented that the Kosovo Cinematography Center (KCC) didn’t even launch a call for submissions. This year, the KCC did ask for submissions but local production has mostly been quiet. Morina has a new film in post-production (“Hatixhe And Shaban”) that I don’t think will debut in time. Isa Qosja, a Montenegro-born, ethnic Albanian filmmaker who directed Kosovo’s first-ever submission after AMPAS recognized them as an independent nation, has a new village comedy called “The Stork”.  As I say every year, I don’t understand any country turning down the free publicity that the Oscar label brings. Hopefully Qosja’s connections will lure Kosovo back to the competition where they belong.

  LATVIA- “In the Land That Sings” Latvia so strongly values its singing traditions that I think Maris Martinsons’ long-awaited “In the Land That Sings” will prevail. It’s a big 19^th century epic period piece, and Latvia tends to pick “big” films if they have them. In second place (and an inferior choice) would be “To Be Continued- Teenhood”, the documentary sequel to Latvia’s 2018 Oscar submission, following the same group of elementary school students who are now teens on the verge of adulthood. Basketball drama “Escape Net” and music biopic “Jumprava: The Happening” are by favorite national directors but probably will not premiere in time….So the only other serious contenders as of now are millennial coming-of-age drama “Youth Eternal” and scandal thriller “The Exalted”.

  LITHUANIA- “Toxic” Lithuania will have a tough time choosing just one film this year. Though they are the largest of the Baltic Republics, they’re the only one waiting for their first Oscar nomination. “The Southern Chronicles” would win the popularity contest. It’s been a box-office hit since its January 2025 premiere and it just swept the National Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Audience Award, and three of the four Acting awards. “Southern Chronicles” is a romantic-comedy set in the 1990s and it is supposed to be very good. But comedies…especially ones with such a specific national element….usually have an uphill climb to be nominated. So, I’m predicting “Toxic”, which won the Golden Leopard at Locarno 2024…and it’s so rare that Lithuania wins the Grand Prize at a Class-A festival! I think the Oscar success of “The Substance” will also help this grotesque teen modelling drama be selected. “Toxic” was the only other fiction feature to win anything at all at the Silver Crane awards. But it’s not just a two-way race! “Murmuring Hearts” won Best Documentary…even though it appears to be some kind of docufiction hybrid about a reform school…..and Lithuania likes docs, sending five since 2006. Two upcoming films- “The Visitor” (Karlovy Vary), a drama about the universal feelings of loss and disorientation when returning home after many years away, and “The Activist”, a thriller about a gay man who infiltrates the neo-Nazi organization whose members killed his partner - could be in the mix if reviews are strong enough. For now, I say the Golden Leopard propels “Toxic” to the front of the queue, followed by “Chronicles” and “The Activist”.

  MACEDONIA- “DJ Ahmet” Winning an award at Sundance- arguably the most influential film festival in the U.S. – is a surefire way to demonstrate that your film can resonate with American audiences. So “DJ Ahmet”, which won the 2025 Audience Award, is sure to represent Macedonia. “DJ” is a coming-of-age tale about a boy from the remote Yuruk community (this obscure Turkish-speaking community also got Macedonia their last Oscar nomination….for “Honeyland”). Ahmet journey to adulthood amidst conservative family and materialistic influences will surely resonate beyond his village. Variety lauded its “unforgettable ensemble, laugh-out-loud comedy and heartsore drama.” Read the reviews. Ahmet is in.

  MOLDOVA- “Turcoaica” Moldova returned to the Oscars in 2022 and had a very competitive selection in 2023. They skipped last year for unknown reasons (did they lose interest? Did the local films not meet AMPAS requirements?) so this year will probably indicate whether they plan to stay in the competition. I see four possible options (in alphabetical order)- (1) “The Alienated”, a supernatural Antichrist drama that premiered at Karlovy Vary 2024, (2)- “Povesti Moldovenesti”, a breezy anthology of short films showcasing the people and stories of Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, (3)- The Prince”, a comedy about an African prince who finds a job as a professor in Moldova and inadvertently finds himself arrested for human trafficking, and (4)- “Turcoaica” (“Turchanka” in Russian), an emotional melodrama about a man who returns his home village after a stint in prison. “Turcoaica” sounds the most “Oscary” since the other three are genre films. Interestingly enough, “The Prince” has become the first Moldovan film to get an Amazon release.

  MONTENEGRO- “Tower of Strength” Tiny Montenegro actually has an interesting two-way race this year between two period dramas about regional rivalries. Will they choose “Tower of Strength”, set during feuding Albanian and Montenegrin communities during World War II, or “Wondrous Is the Silence of My Master”, set during the 19^th century Balkan wars against the Turks. This will be a tough one. “Wondrous” got a festival premiere (Rotterdam) and tells a “bigger” story. But I’m predicting “Tower of Strength”, about a Christian refugee child who seeks refuge with an Albanian Muslim family, who is then threatened with death if they do not hand him over. The Balkans do “moral dilemmas” awfully well but director Nikola Vukcevic seems to have an awfully distinguished career in Montenegro and they may wish to reward him. But this will be a tough decision! 

  POLAND- “Chopin, Chopin” Poland always chooses a film that premieres at a major film festival. In the past ten years, they picked 4 Venice premieres, 3 Toronto premieres, 2 Cannes premieres and a Berlin premiere. The problem is that Polish-language films have been almost completely absent from the film festival circuit this year, including Cannes, Berlin, Venice and Toronto. Up until now, (August 1^st) they might have chosen between boxing drama “Kulej”, relationship dramedy “This Is Not My Film” and Belarusian opposition drama “Under the Grey Sky”. But it’s far more likely they’ll pick whichever of their 16 brand-new films at the Gdynia Film Festival they like best (and can get released by September 30). That’s most likely to be musical biopic “Chopin, Chopin” or “The Altar Boys”, about a bunch of teens rebelling against Catholic dogma. I hate biopics and I’d rather see “Altar Boys”, but “Chopin” looks much “grander”, is super expensive, and has a senior director who has been shortlisted before. It opens October 10th but is sure to arrange an early release if they want it to. In third place, “Good Home”, a drama about domestic violence, followed by the Belarus drama “Under the Grey Sky” and human trafficking drama “Capo”. Very dark horse: Agnieszka Holland made “Kafka” in the Czech Republic but it wasn’t shortlisted. It’s in Czech…but could Poland choose it now that they know nothing else was selected for Venice and Toronto?

  ROMANIA- “Kontinental 25” For Romania, I see a lot of online chatter talking about “The New Year That Never Came”, a critically acclaimed historical drama with intersecting stories a la “Crash” that premiered at Venice ’24 and which dominated the Romanian Gopo Awards. Others are talking about Cristian Mungiu’s latest film “Fjord”, starring up-and-coming Romanian-born Oscar nominee Sebastian Stan and Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve. But neither is eligible. “New Year” premiered four days before the eligibility date and ”Fjord” is mostly in English (and apparently not finished).  So, it’s very unclear what Romania will pick. Radu Jude has been picked four times in the past ten years…could he make it five? He won the Silver Berlin Bear for moral dilemma drama “Kontinental 25”…though Oscar has shown no affection for him (“Bad Luck Banging” and “Aferim!” are quite good). 81-year old Stere Gulea is a respected director who hasn’t been picked since 1996. “The Moromete Family 3: Father and Son” is the third part in an acclaimed trilogy that began during Communist times. Reviews have been great but sequels are always a tough sell. A third option is “Traffic”, a drama about Romanian migrant workers that was written (but not directed) by Cristian Mungiu. Lastly, we have “Holy Family” (Sarajevo), a drama about anti-Semitism. I do think they’ll want to give someone new a chance…but reviews for “Continental” are probably the best of the four, and the Silver Bear will help him to get a fifth chance at Oscar. “Traffic” will likely come second.

  RUSSIA- “This Summer Will End” There’s no point in spending much time talking about Russia. Russia was one of Oscar’s most successful countries, earning five shortlist spots in the eight years (2014-2021) before they quit the competition in protest at Western anger at their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine (?!). Since then, they’ve also been absent from major film festivals. If they did enter (which they won’t), I think they’d pick something with star power, or something that shows Russia in a positive light. So, I’m thinking “This Summer Will End”, starring this year’s Russian Oscar nominee Yura Borisov (“Anora”)….or maybe war film “Blood Type”, which highlights Nazi atrocities against Soviet children…. Or possibly “License to Love” which won the Russian competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. Or maybe upcoming war drama “August”. But they won’t enter so it doesn’t matter.

  SERBIA- “God Be With Us" (aka Great Tram Robbery) Ah, Serbia. They make some wonderful edgy films but their Academy literally makes the worst decisions in all of Europe. In the past six years, they’ve chosen four stuffy historical dramas about Serbian history, each time over critically acclaimed festival competition. Four of those six directors were 55 years old or older ….That would seem to make the Serbian frontrunner “Sectio Aurea 42” by an 81-year old director who was last submitted to the Oscars in 1978. It’s a baity WWII drama about three siblings who end up in a concentration camp. Milorad Milinkovic, another senior director, passed away in January and his latest- a period murder mystery called “Pearl Mist”- would also fit the Serbian profile. The problem is that neither of these has premiered yet so it’s unclear if they’re eligible. “Great Tram Robbery”, the big-budget, glossy 1920s period piece that I predicted last year, has a 78-year old director and is my pick again this year. If they want something more modern, they could consider “Bauk”, “How Come It’s So Green Out Here?” (Karlovy Vary), “Mother Mara” (Sarajevo 24), docudrama “Eighty Plus” (Berlinale Forum), and “Wind, Talk to Me” (Rotterdam)…..but they usually don’t. “Wind” has the best chance out of these but I think they’ll go with one of the big period pieces by old guys.

  SLOVAKIA- “Father” Slovakia doesn’t have much to choose from this year but they do have one fantastic option premiering in Venice. They’ve been touting “Caravan”, about a mother burdened with a handicapped son, as a Slovak film, including at Cannes Film Market…but it has a Czech director, three Czech writers, two Czech producers (one producer is Slovak) and a mostly Czech/Italian cast (one lead actress is Slovak)…so I’m doubtful that will be considered “Slovak artistic control”. “Perla”, an Austrian co-production, also straddles the line but would probably be okay since the Austria-based writer-director has dual nationality. Box-office smash mob drama “Cernak” would have a chance but it’s a “part two” to a story that most Americans won’t know. The Slovak Academy likes documentaries so political doc “Ms. President” could also be selected. All of those are possible, but I think they’ll choose between upcoming family tragedy “Father” (Venice), about the accidental death of an infant child, or “Promise Me, I’ll Be Fine” (aka “Utekac”), a village coming-of-age drama about a 15-year old and his mother, who may be involved in criminal activities. Both are genuinely Slovak (though Slovakia often chooses stories set in other countries). Few countries do tragedies better than Slovakia...."Father" looks likely to be the one, and a strong shortlist contender for Slovakia.

  SLOVENIA- “Little Trouble Girls” Adolescent drama “Little Trouble Girls” premiered at Berlinale, winning one small award. It’s about the tense relationships between a group of girls at a Catholic school. With its main competition – “Fantasy” (Locarno) and “Whites Wash at Ninety” - not expected to premiere until the fall, “Girls” should win this easily.

  UKRAINE- “2000 Meters to Andriivka” First of all, it’s incredible that the resilient Ukrainians are making high-quality cinema despite the war. This year, it would be foolish to bet against Oscar winner Mstyslav Chernov’s grim new documentary “2000 Meters to Andriivka” which just won Best Documentary at the Sundance Film Festival. This movie about a journalist embedded with a Ukrainian platoon is said to be almost as good as “20 Days to Mariupol”…and it’s proven to be a winning formula for Oscar. But Ukraine does have a plethora of other options, including thriller “Honeymoon”, films from the main competition of Cannes (“Two Prosecutors”, Sergey Loznitsa) and Berlin (documentary “Timestamp”), “Grey Bees” (which won Best Ukrainian Fiction Film at the Odessa Film Festival and Ukrainian Film Critics Association) and new films by acclaimed local directors Roman Bondarchuk (“Editorial Office”) and Eva Neymann (“When Lightning Flashes Over the Sea”). I don’t think any of them can beat “Andriivka” but “Grey Bees”, a drama about two pensioners living in the wartorn Donbass region, would have the best chance. Slava Ukraini! 

EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS:

I'm in the middle of an international move so I don't think I'll be able to make a full slate of predictions....but here are my picks for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe:  

1. Albania- “Waterdrop” Albania has had a quiet year and none of their major contenders have been released. Their submission could be any one of three upcoming films....but only if one or more of them gets a domestic release before September 30...and time is running out. Two of these are directors who have picked before- Robert Budina’s “Waterdrop” and Florenc Papas’ “Luna Park”...and they're joined by Pluton Vasi’s Mother Teresa film, “Dancing with the Shadows”. On the off chance that they all premiere in time, I give the edge to “Luna Park” (which I predicted last year) co-starring local star Nik Xhelilaj who rarely makes movies in Albania anymore. It’s about a mother and son facing civil unrest in the 1990s, which is a dramatically interesting subject. But an imminent release seems unlikely so I predict corruption drama “Waterdrop” is picked. However, it’s possible none of them will premiere, whereupon they’ll have to choose between two documentaries about Albanian cinema (“Cinema is Magic” and “Bekim Fehmiu”) and migrant drama “Okarina”, about a Kosovar family in the UK, which already have screened.  

2. Armenia- “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev” Armenia celebrated its first-ever Oscar shortlist spot last year for the charming “Amerikatsi”, which won Best Picture at the 2024 National Film Awards. However, it lost Best Director and Best Screenplay to “Yasha & Leonid Brezhnev”, a tragicomedy-drama about 1970s Soviet Armenia. So, I see that as the frontrunner, especially in a year where there were no Armenian features in the Main Competition at their national film festival (“Yasha” appeared at a festival sidebar).  Armenia makes a lot of documentaries and has selected docs for the Oscars twice. So, it’s possible they could send “1489”, about an MIA soldier because it won the 2023 International Documentary Festival Rotterdam, or “There Was, There Was Not”, by an Armenian-American director (like “Amerikatsi”) following the lives of four women in Nagorno-Karabakh before and after the 2023 war. If they premiere in time, upcoming dramas “Light Drops” (about the Communist era) or “Revival” (co-starring Armand Assante and Maia Morgenstern) could contend as well.

3. Azerbaijan- “Maryam” Azerbaijan has a fairly small film industry and they’ve sent nine films since entering the Oscar race for the first time in 2007 (53% of the time). Despite a number of Azerbaijani films at film festivals, their last submission was a 50-minute documentary about architecture that looked like a film you’d see playing on a loop at a museum, rather than in a cinema. Last year, they didn’t enter at all. This year, I’m predicting they send “Maryam”. Director Elchin Musaoglu was submitted in 2014 for “Nabat”, which is probably the closest Azerbaijan has ever come to making the Oscar shortlist. The film also has a U.S. connection since it follows an Azerbaijan woman who leaves her comfortable life in the USA to take care of her ailing father in her small, home village. They also have “Sermon to the Birds”, but prolific young director Hilal Baydarov has never been chosen before and “Sermon” has been less successful with critics than his other films.

4. Belarus- “Under the Grey Sky” Belarus returned to the Oscar competition from 2018-2020 but hasn’t sent any films since their allies in Russia began boycotting the Oscars in 2022 over the invasion of Ukraine Harmless filmmaking comedy “Kinoshniki” was the only local feature at the national Listapad Film Festival.  I’m sure they won’t send anything. If they somehow manage to form a selection committee in exile (Syria was allowed to do this once), then Polish co-production “Under the Grey Sky” and documentary “Motherland”, both of which have Belarusian directors, would be great choices.

5. Bosnia-Herzegovina- “My Late Summer” Danis Tanovic won the Oscar for “No Man’s Land” and Bosnia has sent three (out of four) of his subsequent Bosnian films to the Oscars (In 2021, I was shocked when they selected competent but unmemorable drama “White Fortress” instead of Tanovic’s “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair”). So, with “My Late Summer” selected as the Opening Film at the 2024 Sarajevo Film Festival, that has automatically made Tanovic the frontrunner. “My Late Summer” is a dramedy about a woman visiting her extended family on a remote island, in order to help settle a family inheritance battle. Unlikely: Croatian co-production “Bosnian Pot”, premiered at last year’s Sarajevo Film Festival and I think it’s eligible this year….but the director is Croatian and it will be hard to beat Tanovic.

6. Bulgaria- “Windless” I think Bulgaria will be choosing between two grim dramas, both of which highlight how so many Bulgarians see their future abroad- “Windless” (Karlovy Vary) is about a migrant returning home to his economically depressed village; “Dyad”, which tied the brilliant “Blaga’s Lessons” for Best Bulgarian Film at last year’s Golden Rose Film Festival, is about a 16-year old girl trying to find a way to join her estranged mother in the USA. “Windless” is brand-new but its director was unexpectedly snubbed recently (for “German Lessons”) and it seems to have better reviews so that’s my pick. Three other options: “The Shameless” (Cannes), a lesbian drama made in India by a Bulgarian director, “Plague” set during the medieval Black Plague and made by a previously submitted director, and “Trap”, about a village plagued by a killer boar and nuclear waste. Out of the running: “Triumph”, starring Maria Bakalova, will premiere at the Toronto Film Festival but I don't expect it to get a cinematic release until next year; “The Black Sea”, about a black New Yorker stranded in Bulgarian, looks like it has too much English. Bulgaria won’t want to be disqualified again like in 2022.

7. Croatia-“Frka” For the past 25 years, every Croatian Oscar submission has been featured at the country’s national Pula Film Festival, although they don’t necessarily pick one of the big winners (In 2020, for the first time ever, they picked a movie that hadn’t won any awards at all). This year, there were eleven Croatian features at Pula. There were also three films from last year that got released in this Oscar eligibility year....that makes a total of 14 films. The big winner this year at Pula was “Celebration”, an abstract village drama set over two decades of Croatian history from 1926-1945. It won most of the main awards, including Best Picture, Critics Poll, Actor and Screenplay, but finished dead last among audience scores. Also winning major awards this year were period romance “The Holy Family” (Audience Award) and documentary “Our Children” (Best Director). I imagine they’ll also consider political thriller “Wrath of God”, comedy-thriller “Frka” (which almost won the Audience Award...though it finished last with critics), and relationship/domestic violence drama “Only When I Laugh” (Best Actress, Pula 2023). A very dark horse: “Bigger than Trauma” won Best Picture at Pula 2023...but was seemingly never released in cinemas. My prediction: the Croatian Academy usually chooses something with a dark sense of humor so I’m predicting a surprise win for gonzo thriller “Frka” which is likely to appeal to Western audiences more than the various films about Croatian culture and history. “Celebration” did so well at Pula and is so clearly the favorite that I have them in a very, very close second place, followed by “Holy Family”, “Wrath of God” and “Only When I Laugh”. 

8. Czech Republic- “Waves” Once a favorite with Oscar, the Czech Republic hasn’t been nominated in 20 years. During that time, they did manage to make the shortlist twice…but they were for films that weren’t actually well-liked by anyone (“Painted Bird” and “Charlatan”). For the past five years, the Czechs have selected historical dramas highlighting various eras in Czech history; four of these were biopics. In my opinion, only “Il Boemo” was actually a dramatically interesting film. So, considering their record, the obvious choice for Czech Republic would be “Waves”, another historical drama, this time focused on Czechoslovakian journalists during the Soviet invasion following the 1968 Prague Spring. Reviews have been good and it won the Audience Award at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival, the country’s major film festival. But I miss the eccentric, naughty sense of humor the Czechs used to bring to this category, so I’m secretly hoping for dark horse “She Came at Night”, a subtle horror-comedy about a visiting mother-in-law. It just won Best Director at the Czech Lions, over last year’s submission “Brothers”. But I know this is highly unlikely and I currently have the film ranked a distant fourth in the Czech race. The more likely alternates are family reunion drama “Our Lovely Pig Slaughter” (which won a Jury Prize at Karlovy Vary) and Oscar nominee Jan Hřebejk’s new “fake news” comedy, “State of Emergency”.  Rounding out the Top Five: Alzheimer’s family dramedy “Waltzing Matilda”. “I’m Not Everything I Want To Be”, a B&W documentary about the Prague Spring, was the only Czech film at a major festival this year but the Czechs have never picked a doc, and it doesn’t look particularly interesting.

9. Estonia- “Lioness” In a quiet year, I’m fully expecting that Estonia will go with last-minute release “Lioness”, a thriller about a brilliant doctor who is also an absent mother, and her relationship with her delinquent 15-year old daughter. It’s set to premiere in late September, it’s made by a previously submitted director and Estonia doesn’t have a whole lot of other choices. If for some reason that movie doesn’t turn out to be very good (and it looks very good), then this will probably go to period romance “Life and Love”. Two movies that had high expectations last year- wacky kung fu comedy “Invisible Fight” (Locarno 2023) and abstract drama “8 Views of Lake Biwa” (Rotterdam)- probably won’t be selected…but they do have their fans. Rounding out the Top 6 are two documentaries: “Vertical Money”, a about capitalism and nature, and “Who Am I Smiling For?”, about a mother with cancer.  

10. Georgia- “April” “Panopticon”, a disturbing coming-of-age drama about a creepy, sexually deviant youth living with his ultra-religious family, looked to be the automatic frontrunner for Georgia. It got good reviews at Karlovy Vary, and there were no other obvious choices, other than “Lotto” (aka “Drawing Lots”) which was the surprise winner of Best Georgian Film at the 2023 Tbilisi Film Festival. But then Dea Kulumbegashvili’s upcoming abortion drama “April” was selected as the only Eastern European film in the Main Competition of Venice 2024. Kulumbegashvili got great reviews for “Beginning” (which I didn’t like) and Georgia submitted it to the Oscars in 2020. Venice outranks Karlovy Vary and I think if “April” (aka “Those Who Find Me”) gets good reviews, it’s in. Two other dark horses are in post-production with no release date: Aleksandre Koberidze’s “Dry Leaf” and Ana Urushadze’s acting drama “Supporting Role”. Urushadze was selected once before and Koberidze was the hot favorite for “What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?”. I expect those two will be eligible next year. 

11. Hungary- “Semmelweis” Last year, I predicted Hungary would pick “Semmelweis”, a 19^th century historical drama about a doctor trying to find a cure for a fever plaguing Viennese babies. The film was directed by Lajos Koltai who probably came close to an Oscar nomination in 2006 for “Fateless”. The release date for "Semmelweis" was delayed slightly and since that time it has swept the 2024 Hungarian Film Awards, winning Best Picture, Director and four other awards. So, I think it’s safe. Other options (in order)- #2- “Without Air” sounds a bit like “Teachers Lounge” and is about a teacher whose life is turned upside-down by a parent’s ridiculous complaint, #3- “Pelikan Blue”, an animated documentary about Hungary in the 1990s that has gotten quite strong reviews…but Hungary picked an animated film last year….#4- “Raw Material”, about a village disrupted by a film team, and #5- “Kix”, a well-reviewed skateboarding documentary. Unknown quantity: “Lesson Learned”, which is due to premiere in competition at Locarno. I think “Semmelweis” is way ahead, but I would love to see “Without Air” picked instead.

12. Kosovo- “Phantom Youth” Kosovo made the unusual decision not to send a film last year despite receiving four submissions, including Tallinn Black Nights First Feature winner “The Land Within”. This was especially surprising because Kosovo is usually obsessed with proving its nationhood, since Serbia has continued to prevent full international recognition of Kosovo's independence since 2008. I believe Kosovo will return this year with “Phantom Youth” (Venice Horizons 2023), a well-reviewed coming-of-age drama about two Kosovar women who leave their small town to study in the capital. It's directed by 23-year old French-Kosovar actress Luana Bajrami.

13. Latvia- “Maria’s Silence” While last year was pretty dreadful for Latvia (“My Freedom” was one of the weakest entries of last year….and couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination at Latvia’s small National Film Awards) this year looks to be competitive. For now, this looks like a two-way race between “A Postcard from Rome”, which won Best Picture at the Latvian Film Awards, and Berlinale Forum prize winner “Maria’s Silence”. I would much prefer they chose “Postcard”, a gentle comedy-drama about an elderly couple trying to pay for a trip to Italy before the husband’s Alzheimers gets worse. But for the past decade, the Latvian Academy has shown that they like their films grim and dramatic and focused on serious subjects like war and Communism. So, “Maria’s Silence”, about an actress faced with a moral dilemma during Communist times, appears to be the frontrunner. Latvia also had an acclaimed animated film (“Flow”) at Cannes Un Certain Regard…Two documentaries – “Eastern Front” (about the war in Ukraine) and “Everything Will Be Alright” (about a 90-year old female war veteran)- could also surprise, although Latvia doesn’t like docs as much as its two Baltic neighbors. But not so fast….two big long-delayed films by Latvia’s leading directors could potentially see the light of day this year- rock band drama “Jumprava- The Happening” and Latvian independence drama “In the Land That Sings” were meant to premiere last year but now have no release date on the books. For now, “Maria” is still the frontrunner but “In the Land That Sings” is sure to be selected the year that it’s finally released.

14. Lithuania- “Five and a Half Love Stories in An Apartment in Vilnius, Lithuania” Vying for the year’s most awkward title, “Love Stories” (Tallinn Black Nights) follows five love stories in an AirBnB in the Lithuanian capital, deftly mixing a variety of genres and languages. It was nominated for almost every award at this year’s Lithuanian Film Awards though it lost most to last year’s submission, “Slow”. Lithuania frequently sends documentaries so “Bogdanas Longs to Stay” (about a juvenile detention center) and “The Mammoth Hunt” (about a lost Soviet film showing Lithuanian cultural opposition to Communist rule) could also be selected. It was also recently announced that Lithuania has two new films in the Main Competition at Locarno 2024 (there are only 17 films, so that’s quite an impressive feat)- “Drowning Dry”, about a family vacation that goes tragically wrong, and “Toxic”, about the dangers of modeling. “Drowning Dry” looks like it has a lot of potential if they can get it into cinemas by September 30.

15. Macedonia- “The Business of Pleasure” Macedonia has one of the more confusing races in the region, mostly because I can’t find release dates for most of their contenders. For now, I’m penciling in human trafficking drama “Business of Pleasure” which has gotten mixed reviews but also an international distribution deal and “The Love Room”, a documentary about two women who visit their imprisoned partners in jail for conjugal visits. Both of them premiered at festivals in mid-2023….so their eligibility will depend on whether they got a domestic release in Macedonia after November 1^st, 2023.  If they’re not eligible, Macedonia may choose a last-minute release (possibly from the Manaki Brothers Film Festival in late September). Dark horses: Teona Strugar Mitevska’s terminal illness documentary “21 Days Until the End of the World” and action-comedy “Kill the Children First”. Or they may skip the competition for lack of suitable contenders, like in 2017.

16. Moldova- “Man Without A Lifeline” Moldova had a wide-open race last year with four films to choose from, which bodes well for them staying in the competition permanently. This year looks much the same, with a few well-regarded films that would represent the national cinema of this small, former Soviet republic well…even if they don’t really have a chance to get an actual Oscar nomination. If they want to emulate Ukraine’s Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol”, they could select documentary “Shadow of War”, about a group of Moldovan filmmakers who travel to neighboring Ukraine to document the war. If they believe in the importance of film festivals, they’ll pick supernatural Antichrist drama “The Alienated”, which had its premiere at Karlovy Vary. “Man Without A Lifeline” won some minor awards in the USA for its story of a scientist imprisoned during the Communist era.  Also in the mix: Paralympic drama “Kretsul” and comedy-drama “Alive in Mo.” Interestingly, four out of five are directed or co-directed by women. I think the fact that “Alienated” and “Kretsul” are directed by Russians - not a good look - will hurt their chances, opening the door for “Man Without A Lifeline” to be selected. I expect the Karlovy Vary label will propel “The Alienated” into second place with “Shadows” in third.

17. Montenegro- “Forever Hold Your Peace” Tiny Montenegro has sent a film to the Oscars all but one year since their Oscar debut in 2013 (they received no submissions in 2017). This year, they’re almost certain to send messy Balkan wedding comedy “Forever Hold Your Peace”, which would make Ivan Marinovic the first Montenegrin director to be selected twice. However, it’s not a sure thing because oft-delayed “The Tower of Strength” (aka “Face of Honour” and “Children”) may finally come out this year. It’s a baity period drama set during WWII about a Christian child who begs a Muslim neighbor to save his life after his family is murdered, putting that entire family’s lives at risk and posing them with a grave moral dilemma. Less likely: comedy-drama “The Supermarket” and documentary “Once Upon A Family”.

18. Poland- “Under the Volcano” Poland is probably the most difficult country to predict because they have a huge film industry, but at least half of their contenders will premiere in September at the Gdynia National Film Festival. In alphabetical order, I see the four main contenders for Poland are: “Minghun”, a movie about grief in which a Polish father and his Chinese father-in-law mourn the loss of his daughter, “People”, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the eyes of a group of brave Ukrainian women, “Scarborn”, an 18^th century action epic about fighting the Russians which won Best Picture at the 2023 Gdynia Film Festival (over “The Peasants”) and “Under the Volcano”, about a Ukrainian family on vacation who are unable to return home when war breaks out. Poland has a good record in this category (3 nominations in six years….and it probably would have been four if they picked “Green Border” last year) so they definitely want to be nominated. As of today, only “Scarborn” has been screened for critics so it’s impossible to know. Both films about Ukraine have Polish directors so they’re eligible. I’ve heard seen mixed reviews for the buzzy “Minghun” on Letterboxd which makes me think that they may choose one of the others. For now, I’m pencilling in “Under the Volcano” but I’m not confident….with “Scarborn” in second place. I see a lot of people predicting Cannes Palme d’or nominee “Girl with the Needle” and transgender drama “Woman of…” but I don’t think they’re eligible. “Girl” is almost entirely Danish (with a few Polish crew) while “Woman of…” was shortlisted by Poland last year even though its eventual release date was this year. So I think they’re both out.

19. Romania- “Three Kilometres to the End of the World” For such an important country, Romania really only has two realistic choices….so it’s looking like a fierce competition of Berlin vs. Cannes. This is going to be a really difficult choice between two dramas about discrimination and prejudice- “Holy Week” takes place in 1900 Romania and focuses on anti-Semitism and revenge at a village inn; “Three Kilometers to the End of the World”, which was in the Main Competition at Cannes, is an LGBT drama about a young man whose conservative family learns he is gay after he is the victim of a brutal hate crime. Both got good reviews and were made by relatively new directors. I’m predicting “Three Kilometres” but this is really 50-50, especially since both were just selected for the 9-film Sarajevo Competition lineup….The Romanian Academy has picked daring movies before (remember the opening scene of “Bad Luck Banging”?) so I don’t expect they’ll be turned off by the gay themes. If they go for a shock surprise nominee (which happened two years ago), they could consider “Familiar” (by Golden Bear winner Calin Peter Netzer, who directed “Child’s Pose”), “Warboy”, a WWII youth drama, or documentary “Between Revolutions”. But I’m pretty sure it will be one of the two frontrunners. 

20. Russia- “The Alien” Once again, I have no expectations that Russia will send a film. After they invaded Ukraine in 2022, killing or wounding half a million people and destabilizing Europe, they disbanded their Oscars committee claiming the West was disrespecting them (?!). But I am proud that the placeholder film I picked for Russia last year (“Pravednik”) went on to win Best Picture at the 2024 Russian Nika Awards, making me feel good about my predictive abilities. Russian cinema has mostly been uninvited from international film festivals and they’ve been churning out a lot of light entertainment this year. If they send a film (which they won’t) I expect it would be the apolitical “The Alien”, which was the only Russian film in competition at the Moscow International Film Festival. It’s a well-reviewed drama about an eccentric village man obsessed with alien life. They also likely would have considered WWII village drama “Black Tapes” about village men who convince the local postmen to stop sending notices that relatives have died in the war, India co-production “We Should Make Movies About Love”, or “Anna’s Feelings”, another sci-fi alien drama, this time by previously submitted director Anna Melikyan. It would be interesting if AMPAS approved a committee-in-exile that could consider Aleksandr Sokurov’s latest film - the surreal fantasy “Fairytale” - which won Best Picture from the Russian Guild of Film Critics despite being banned…or indie drama “Dolomite and Ash”, about journalists investigating Soviet era atrocities.

21. Serbia- “The Great Tram Robbery” So, Serbia makes great movies. And the Serbian Academy makes terrible choices. In the past five years, they have selected three nationalist movies about Serbian history that probably went over the heads of many Oscar viewers, ignoring critically acclaimed dramas that were expected to contend for a nomination, like “Father” and “Guardians of the Formula”. They also tend to select directors in their 50s and 60s. (only Petar Ristovski was from the younger generation, but he’s the son of respected retired actor/director Lazar Ristovski). So, that’s why I’m picking 1920’s expensive epic historical film “The Great Tram Robbery” (aka “God Be With Us”) by 77-year old Slobodan Slijan, who was an important director during the Communist era. It’s the sort of big-budget, pretty-looking film the Serbian Academy loves and that American audiences don’t. In second place, I have “The Erl-King” (by 67-67-year old Goran Radovanovic) about a family under siege by the NATO bombing of Belgrade in the 1990s. It represented Serbia at the Moscow International Film Festival, and Radovanovic represented Serbia for another nationalist film (Enclave) in 2015. But it’s possible Serbia could go arthouse- they did in 2021- and that means they could select “That’s It For Today” (aka “Enough for Now”), a warmly received rural drama that won Best Serbian Film at FEST 2024 in Belgrade. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Serbia: “Russian Consul”, another nationalist historical drama about the origins of the Serbia-Kosovo conflict and dark horse “Lost Country”. Cannes 2023 drama “Lost Country” is a moral dilemma drama of the sort that the Balkan countries do so well (a young son realizes his mother is part of the genocidal Milosevic government), and it was one of the favorites to rep Serbia last year. It wasn’t selected by the film ended up changing its release date so it may be eligible this year. But it’s critical perspective of Serbian nationalism may mean the committee just doesn’t like its message. I’d love for them to consider something a bit wackier like comedy “Lilacs” or horror-drama “The Working Class to Hell” both of which were among the four Serbian films featured at FEST….but I’d say it’s unlikely. Unknown quantity: Serbia has two new films that were just announced for the 9-film competition in Sarajevo, including “Mother Mara”, directed and starring a well-known Serbian actress as a woman who meets a mysterious man while grieving the loss of her son. The other, migrant drama “Dwelling Among the Gods”, is the story of an Afghan woman and is unlikely to rep Serbia.

22. Slovakia- “The Hungarian Dressmaker” Slovakia appears to have a fairly easy decision this year. Iveta Grofova’s “Hungarian Dressmaker” was the only majority Slovak production at Karlovy Vary (the premier festival for both Czech and Slovak films) and Grofova was selected once before in 2012. The film is about an ethnic Hungarian woman hiding a Jewish boy from the Nazis during WWII…which recalls Slovakia’s long-ago Oscar win for “The Shop on Main Street”. Slovakia hasn’t selected a film helmed by a woman in over a decade so this would be a victory for equality as well. Slovakia has made some surprising decisions in the past so upcoming crime drama “Miki” could contend if it gets really great reviews after its August release. Slovakia likes documentaries (they picked docudramas two of the past three years) so “Andy Warhol: The American Dream” could also be the one (Warhol was of Slovak descent). Period dramas “Whirlwind”  and “The Dormant Account” are by previously submitted directors but don’t have reviews good enough to defeat the “Dressmaker”.

23. Slovenia- “Family Therapy” Slovenia usually sends an intimate drama to the Oscars and this year I expect that will be “Family Therapy” (Tribeca, Sarajevo), a social satire about a wealthy Slovenian family. This would be the third go-round for Sonja Prosenc (after "The Tree" and "History of Love") and this is supposed to be her best film yet. In second place, I have the upcoming “The Lost Son” about two brothers- one a good cop, and the other a criminal. Round out the Top 5: “Wake Me”, about an amnesiac visiting his brother (it won Best Fiction Feature at the 2023 Slovenian Vesna Awards); “Role Model”, a family drama about a lonely teen, his alcoholic mother and a mysterious neighbor; and “Body” a dull-looking documentary filmed over the course of 20 years, about a women fighting an autoimmune illness. Dark horses include Janez Burger’s new thriller “Observing” (he’s been selected three times), coming-of-age drama “Fantasy” and docudrama “Pero”.  

24. Ukraine- “Porcelain War” Wow….Ukraine won its first Oscar last year (“20 Days in Mariupol” won Best Documentary and was deservingly shortlisted in this category as well). Despite the war, cinemas remain open and the country Kyiv hosted Ukraine’s International Film Festival (usually in Odessa) in July 2024. It’s an incredibly competitive year for Ukraine with nearly two dozen documentaries and fiction features in play, and no frontrunner. I’ve no idea which one they’ll pick. However, since Ukraine’s top foreign policy priority is to drum up international support for the war efforts, I think they’ll pick another documentary….and their best option seems to be Sundance Documentary winner “Porcelain War”, about three artists who continue to document daily Ukrainian life after Russia’s invasion. It’s topical, well-reviewed and proved to resonate with U.S. audiences. If they want a fiction feature, it will probably be “Grey Bees” about two middle-aged neighbors trying to stay alive in the Donbass, on the war’s frontlines. It just won Best Ukrainian Film at the national film festival. The documentary runner-ups (in order): “Intercepted” (Berlinale 2024), “The Invasion” (Cannes 2024), which hasn’t gotten the best reviews but is directed by acclaimed director Sergei Loznitsa, and “In the Rearview”, which would be a frontrunner if the director wasn’t Polish. The fiction runner-ups: family drama “Stepne” (Locarno 2023), LGBT comedy “Lessons of Tolerance” (which Western critics don’t seem to like), “The Editorial Office” (Sarajevo), and “How is Katia?”. Slava Ukraini!