BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS- THE AMERICAS PREDICTIONS (22 countries)

And here are my predictions for the 22 countries of the Americas.....Last year, I predicted two-thirds correctly (11/17). 

Last year, these countries got two spots on the shortlist for (the annoying) "Universal Language" and the lovely winner, "I'm Still Here"

  ARGENTINA- “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (La virgen de la tosquera) Argentina always picks a film that premiered at a major festival…In the past ten years, they picked seven brand-new films that premiered right around the deadline (5 from Venice and 2 from Toronto) and just three early releases (two from Berlin and one from Cannes). This is a rough year for Argentina. Their only Cannes/Berlin entry was “The Message” and that didn’t get very good reviews. Popular director Pablo Trapero is working in English (“&Sons”), while Lucrecia Martel is at Venice with a documentary (they’ve never picked one before). I’m pretty sure they’ll choose between “The Virgin of the Quarry Lake” (Sundance) about an adolescent girl who resorts to black magic, and the upcoming “Homo Argentum”, a series of comedy vignettes about the absurdities of Argentine life. If “Homo” can get selected for a big festival like Toronto or San Sebastian, I think it will be selected. But if not, the Sundance label will get “Quarry Lake” selected. Other options (in order): gambling drama “Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed” (Cannes 2024), LGBT drama “Astronaut Lovers” and grim family drama “La Quinta” (San Sebastian 2024).

  BOLIVIA- “The Dog Thief” (El ladrón de perros) It’s been a slow year for Bolivian cinema but they have one great choice- “The Dog Thief” – which has been playing at festivals around the world and which just won “Best First Feature” at the Pan-American “Platino Awards” and got Bolivia’s first-ever nomination in the Best Ibero-American Feature category at the Mexican Ariel Awards. It’s a great little film although I still don’t really get the ending. The only problem is that its writer-director is Chilean….and the crew is fairly international….but it has been competing as a Bolivian film at festivals. Some others are talking about UK-Spain-Bolivian co-production “Cielo” which has similar nationality problems but less buzz….But I think “The Dog Thief” is in.

  BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” For the first time ever, Brazil is in the Oscar race as returning champion. Last year, they learned that if you go with your biggest and best film, you can win an Oscar. Brazil has a lot of very good films this year. But with the Academy’s prioritization of “bigger”, it’s obvious they’ll go with Kleber Mendonca Filho’s crime drama “The Secret Agent”, which won Best Actor and Director at Cannes. This period drama, set in the 70s just like “I’m Still Here”, is about a mysterious man who returns to his hometown of Recife and it has the buzz and awards that should automatically get the film to the shortlist….and also strong reviews that will very possibly get it to the nomination stage. Two potential problems? The film is scheduled to premiere in Brazil in November….but I think they’ll do a qualifying release. Also Kleber was picked just two years ago…but winning the Oscar last year will teach them that they just need to pick their film with the best chance.  Other films likely to be on Brazil’s shortlist: “Manas” (Venice Days Winner, 2024), “Vitoria”, a star vehicle crime drama for 95-year old grande dame Fernanda Montenegro, and three of Brazil’s five Best Picture nominees from their national Film Awards- “Baby” (Cannes Critics Week 2024), “Kasa Branca” and “Malu” (Sundance 2024). Oscar nominee Montenegro is a national treasure, so “Vitoria” is probably the only other film that could realistically be considered….though “Manas”, about women growing up in a remote Amazon community, probably has the best reviews, and LGBT drama “Baby” looks most interesting.

  CANADA- “The Things You Kill” I’m hearing rumors that Canada is leaning towards “The Things You Kill”, a Turkish-language thriller that won Best Director in the International Competition at Sundance. The Canadian Academy is (oddly) inclined against the French-language Quebecois films that traditionally dominated here for 50 years. In the past five years, they’ve never picked a majority French-language film…..though they did have to replace the Tamil/English-language “Funny Boy” with a French one when it was disqualified. “The Things That Kill” is a revenge movie about a man plotting a murder after the suspicious death of his elderly mother. It was made in Turkey by an Iranian director based in Canada. Three previously submitted directors are also strong contenders this year– comedy-drama “Lovely Day”, which is due to premiere in Toronto (Philippe Falardeau, “Monsieur Lazhar”), France-set “Shepherds”, which won Best Canadian Film at Toronto 2024 (Sophie Deraspe, “Antigone”) and Inuit fairy tale “Wrong Husband/Uiksaringitara” which premiered in Berlinale (Zacharius Kunuk, “Atanarjuat”). And there are two other very well-reviewed French-language films that look exactly like the sorts of films that Canada usually liked to send- “My Mother, God and Sylvie Varta”, a comedy-drama about a determined Mom raising a handicapped child in 1960s Canada, and “Two Women” (Sundance), a dramedy about the misadventures of two modern but disillusioned middle-aged women. I’m predicting “Things That Kill” based on buzz, but it’s by no means a done deal. A new film could emerge in Toronto in September….or they could choose one of the very good French-language alternates. The most likely from this list is “Two Women”….or maybe “Lovely Day”. Canada hasn’t been nominated since 2012 though they’ve gotten shortlisted twice since then…for two of their weakest submissions.

  CHILE- “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” (La misteriosa mirada del flamenco) AIDS parable “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” won the Cannes Un Certain Regard award and it’s definitely the most likely Chilean submission unless something comes along at the last minute. There were high hopes for Sebastian Lelio’s “La ola” (Cannes), his first Spanish-language film since winning the Oscar for “A Fantastic Woman”….but this drama about a feminist student on a university campus has gotten middling reviews that are nowhere near as good as “Flamingo”. Other options: western “Bitter Gold”, Pinochet-era drama “Cuerpo Celeste”, and home invasion thriller “The Righteous”. But “Flamingo” should win this relatively easily.

  COLOMBIA- “A Poet” (Un poeta) The obvious choice for Colombia is “A Poet”, which won the Un Certain Regard Jury Prize at Cannes 2025. This comedy-drama about a disillusioned poet tutoring a teenager arguably has the best reviews of any Colombian film this year. Director Simon Mesa Soto was previously a favorite to represent Colombia for “Amparo” (they rightfully picked the excellent “Kings of the World” instead), and “Poet” will get a qualifying release in late August. Four others to watch in a very strong year for Colombian cinema: western “Adios Al Amigo” (Tokyo), family murder drama “The Other Side” (HBO Max), queer Hell comedy “Rains Over Babel” (Sundance), and “Salt Water”, a very weird but well-reviewed LGBT movie about a gay man who confronts the priest who gave him his first sexual experience. “The Other Side” will probably be the runner-up and may go to the Goyas.

  COSTA RICA- “The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener” (El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero ) Costa Rica will probably choose between documentary ” El monagullo, el cura y el jardiniero” which won Best Costa Rican film at their national film festival, and “La piel del agua”, which premiered at a Locarno sidebar in 2024. The documentary – about two adult victims who come forward to present evidence in a landmark case against the priest who abused them – has much better reviews. Although Costa Rica has never picked a documentary before, this is likely to be their first.

  CUBA- “Cherri” Cuba has only sent one film in the past four years….and it was disqualified for unknown reasons (“El mundo de Nelsito” was assigned to a group of Academy voters for viewing but it was never downloaded into the online Screening Room and was later removed from committee assignments). They rejoined the Spanish Goya competition last year after an absence of several years. Could the Oscars be next? Cuba’s national film body (the ICAIC) published a press release this year that they were experiencing a “period of renewal” with a large number of new films in production, including one by Oscar nominee Jorge Perugorria (“Strawberry and Chocolate”). The only option I know that has actually been screened this year is comedy “Cherri”, which repped Cuba at the Miami Film Festival. It’s a drama about a lonely, overweight, gay dance instructor and I’ve heard very good things about it.

  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Bionico’s Bachata” (La Bachata de Bionico) The Dominicans have quite a competitive race this year. On paper, “Pepe”, a weird, dreamy “Uncle Boonmee”-style film about a ghostly hippopotamus, should be the frontrunner since it won Best Director at Berlinale 2024. But reviews have not been good and I’m not sure how it won. The Dominicans will likely also consider other three festival films - “Bionico’s Bachata” (SXSW), “Olivia and the Clouds” (Locarno, Filmmakers of the Present), and “Sugar Island” (Venice Days), plus two local releases, musical biopic “La Grande”, and “Tiger” by José María Cabral, one of my favorite Latin American directors and who has represented the DR three times. The Dominican Republic is one of those rare countries that usually seems to send their actual best film….and “Bachata”, a dark comedy about a crack addict trying to get clean, definitely has the best reviews and won an Audience Award at SXSW. This shows that it appeals to U.S. audiences (unlike the arty “Pepe” which won in Europe). I have “Pepe” in second place, followed by “Tiger”, which focuses on the Dominican Republic’s unhealthy toxic masculinity culture followed by “Olivia & the Clouds”, a quirky animated film telling one story from several perspectives a la “Rashomon”. I’m hoping for Cabral (whose films are always amazing) but would also be happy to see "Bionico" succeed.

  ECUADOR- “Fishgirl” (Alucina) Ecuador has two very cool-looking fantasy films competing this year- “Alucina (Fishgirl)” (Tallinn Black Nights) and “Chuzalongo”, which was picked to represent Ecuador at the 2025 Goyas. “Chuzalongo” is a horror-drama rooted in local indigenous mythology about a child with the power to heal the crops…but who also requires human blood to work his magic.  “Alucina” is a comedy about a woman with amnesia…whose best friend is an imaginary giant fish. “Chuzalongo” didn’t get a Goya nomination last year (although Ecuador has only ever gotten one once....and that was 25 years ago) while “Alucina” played at a major festival so that’s my prediction.  I’ve heard it’s quite an odd but moving film. Dark horse: Ana Cristina Barragan has a new film premiering in Venice called "The Ivy" (Hiedra) about a mother who reconnects with the son she gave up for adoption when she got pregnant at age 13. It has no general release date and I think it will be eligible next year....but Barragan will probably be chosen if it does. Other options include documentary “Carmela and the Walkers” and political mockumentary “Victor Presidente”. 

  GUATEMALA- “Comparsa” If Guatemala sends a film, it will probably be documentary "Comparsa", produced by Jayro Bustamente who has directed three of Guatemala's four submitted films since 2015.  "Comparsa" tells the same story as Bustamente's "Rita", except in documentary form. It's about the deaths of dozens of Guatemalan teenagers in a fire at a welfare home for girls. It's in Spanish but it was made by U.S. citizen directors, which may affect its eligibility. But Bustamente's involvement may make it "Guatemalan enough". Contrary to popular belief, films by U.S. directors have been allowed to compete in the past, e.g. "How to Win at Checkers" from Thailand. As far as I know, the only fiction film eligible this year is romantic comedy “Un caquero sin pisto” which was released in late July and looks a bit silly. Guatemala did launch an official call for submissions but I predict they will take this year off.

  HAITI- “Kidnapping Inc.” There were unofficial reports that Haiti submitted comedy-thriller “Kidnapping Inc.” to the Oscars last year but it didn’t appear on the official list. It appears likely that the Oscar selection committee that chose the film wasn’t officially recognized by AMPAS. In the past few years, AMPAS has allowed several films in this situation (including Bhutanese Oscar nominee “Lunana” and last year’s Tajik submission “Melody”) to compete the following year. “Kidnapping Inc.” was clearly made on a tight budget by a team that loves the movies....It was a breath of fresh air and one of the most entertaining submissions last year (it’s available on Amazon) and I hope it gets a chance to compete (though of course it won’t be nominated). This year, Haiti also has the long-delayed political thriller “July 7” and Canadian-Haitian documentary “At All Kosts”, about artists protesting political dysfunction and gang violence.

 HONDURAS- “Navidad Catracha 2: El origen” Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020. This year, I know of only two local films and they are highly unlikely to send either one. The director of one of their previous submissions has a new Christmas movie (“Navidad Catracha 2: El origen”) that premiered in December and that's slightly more likely than commercial comedy “El hombre se ha vuelto loco”.

  MEXICO- “Olmo”  As usual, Mexico has a fairly interesting and competitive race. They somehow got shortlisted (but not nominated) four years in a row from 2020-2023 (I thought three of these films were terrible) but “Sujo” broke their winning streak. But still, their record shows that the Mexicans are very good at figuring out what their Northern neighbors will like. And I think that will be “Olmo” (Berlin), a coming-of-age dramedy about a Mexican immigrant family in New Mexico, which is executive produced by Brad Pitt. This kind of gentle drama usually works well for Mexico and the idea that Pitt would campaign for the film will surely push it ahead of the pack. Mexico also tends to choose late releases….so I there’s a strong potential chance for “En el camino” (produced by another Hollywood movie star….Mexican actor Diego Luna), an upcoming movie about a gay drifter and hitchhiker. It’s set to premiere at Venice Horizons. In 3rd place- Ariel Best Picture nominee (the only one that is eligible) “No nos moveran” (We Shall Not Be Moved), about an attorney trying to get justice for the murder of her brother, nearly 60 years earlier. Likely to be on Mexico's shortlist (but unlikely to be picked): family drama “The Devil Smokes” (Berlin) and hit mainstream comedy “Corina” (Tallinn Black Nights). But I think they'll pick one of the films that has a Hollywood connection. 

  NICARAGUA- Nothing Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010. Leonardo DiCaprio has been promoting Nicaraguan environmental documentary “Patrol” (Patrullaje) but I think it was eligible last year.

  PANAMA- “Beloved Tropic” (Querido trópico)  What a wonderfully competitive race Panama has the year! There are at least a half dozen films that could easily represent the country- three dramas and three documentaries (Panama has selected four documentaries since joining the Oscar race in 2014). Of the three fiction features- “Beloved Tropic”, “Espina” and “Papeles”- I think the frontrunner is “Beloved Tropic” (San Sebastian), a Colombian co-production starring luminous Chilean actress Paulina Garcia (“Gloria”) as a woman with dementia, and centering on her relationship with her immigrant caretaker. It won Best Central American Film in Costa Rica and looks absolutely wonderful. Of the three documentary features – “The Panama Canal Treaties: Son of Tiger and Mule”, “The Sorcerer” and “Wild Gleaming Space” – I give the edge to “The Sorcerer” an artistic documentary-animation hybrid that won the Audience Award at Panama’s national film festival.  Panama likes documentaries…but I think “Beloved Tropic” will get this and that “Sorcerer” will be runner-up. It's important to note that “Wild Gleaming Space”, a documentary about mortality, is produced by Abner Benaim who directed Panama’s only shortlisted film….and that journalism thriller “Papeles” is directed by Arturo Montenegro who has already been picked twice. Political considerations may also come into play. “The Panama Canal Treaties” tells the story of 1970s negotiations with the U.S. to decide the future possession of the Panama Canal, which the new U.S. President has inexplicably reclaimed in a fiery series of speeches. I think that “Wild Gleaming Space” will come in third and comic drama “Espina” (the film I most want to see) will come fourth. But "Beloved Tropic" looks like one of this year's gems. 

  PARAGUAY- “Under the Flags, the Sun” (Bajo las banderas, el sol) Paraguay rarely has films at international festivals but documentary “Under the Flags, the Sun”, premiered in Berlinale’s Panorama section this year. It tells the story of the 35 years of Paraguayan dictatorship (1954-1989) under Alfredo Stroessner through archive footage. Paraguay has picked documentaries before and this has good reviews so it’s safe to say it’s in.

  PERU- “Through Rocks and Clouds” (Raiz) Seven of Peru’s past eight submissions premiered at their Film Festival of Lima event, which is held every August. But because Peruvian films often take so much time to reach domestic cinemas, release dates are confusing. For example, two of those seven submissions (“Retablo” and “Rosa Chumbe”) were selected for the Oscars two years after they premiered! From last year’s festival, the two frontrunners would appear to be “Motherland” (Kinra), which won a few awards, and “Through Rocks & Clouds”, which won an award at Berlinale 2024 in the 14+ category. Both films are indigenous stories in Quechua and Spanish and appeared in the main competition in Lima. A third film, “Karuara”, which won Best Peruvian Film at Lima in 2024, is an animated film in the Cocama language.  From this year's festival, “Punku”, an environmental mystery that also played in Berlin and "1982", a village drama about local boys living amidst political turmoil, look the most likely. “Ramon y Ramon”, an LGBT drama from San Sebastian,  didn’t play in Lima but could be selected if they get a local release. Lastly, “Los indomables” could probably have been considered....but director Tito Catacora probably won’t be selected two years in a row.  “Through Rocks and Clouds”, about a young indigenous shepherd with cute kids and animals looks the most likely.

 PUERTO RICO- “This Island” (Esta isla) As I say every year, Puerto Rico was unfairly uninvited from the Oscars in 2010. One day, I believe AMPAS will realize their mistake and they’ll be allowed back when this ridiculous rule (that only affects Puerto Rico) is reversed. If it’s this year, Puerto Rico will surely send “This Island” which just won three awards at the Tribeca Film Festival. It’s a thriller about an impoverished young man and his wealthy girlfriend fleeing to the countryside following a violent family tragedy. Suerte, Puerto Rico!

 SURINAME- “Monikondee” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent one film to the Oscars in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This year they have a really interesting documentary option called “Monikondee” (literally ‘money country’) about a boatman who delivers cargo to a remote “wild west” region inhabited by indigenous people, former slaves, gold miners and multinational corporations, in a sort of "no man's land" between Suriname and French Guiana. It has Surinamese and Dutch co-directors and looks eligible.

  URUGUAY- “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame Fuerte) I think Uruguay will select “Don’t You Let Me Go”, a drama about grief and female friendship. It played at Tribeca ‘24, winning the Nora Ephron Award last year. I expected it would represent Uruguay last year but it didn’t get a domestic release until October 2024. Director Leticia Jorge has been picked once before. The two other strong possibilities are “A Bright Future” (Tribeca 25), a quirky sci-fi drama about a young woman in a futuristic dystopian world and “Perros” (Malaga) about a war between two feuding families. Uruguay often chooses genre films (especially comedies but also horror films) so I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked zombie comedy “Summer Hit/El tema del verano” (directed by 2004 Cannes UCR winner Pablo Stoll and co-starring Daniel Hendler) or action-thriller “Las 7 Balas”.

  VENEZUELA- “Visceral” Despite decades of political and economic crises, Venezuela has an accomplished film industry. They’ve sent a film to the Oscars every year since 1996 (they were disqualified once) and they have hosted a Festival of Venezuelan Cinema every year since 2005….until now. A few weeks ago, the Festival del Cine Venezolano was canceled for the first time which sadly means that Venezuelan national cinema has lost its largest platform. And although they still produce a lot of films, it looks most of their main contenders haven’t had the 7-day commercial release required to qualify. “Visceral” is a claustrophobic, psychological thriller about a married couple during COVID quarantine, that won a lot of awards at last year’s Festival de Cine Venezolano. I can confirm it got a cinematic release so that’s my pick. If “Zafari” (San Sebastian), a drama by Mariana Rondon (“Bad Hair”, “Postcards from Leningrad”) can get released somewhere then that’s equally likely. “Zafari” is about an impoverished family in Venezuela who live across the street from a zoo celebrating the arrival of a well-fed and pampered hippopotamus. Other options: docudrama “Lost Chapters” (Locarno) and migration drama “Hambre”. Dark horse: "La hija de la espanola", a new Venezuelan film premiering in Venice (also directed by Rondon), and starring Edgar Ramirez. 

FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS 2021-2022 (A-D)

So, I hadn't planned to do any predictions this year because the COVID situation made things so messy....Who knows when a film was released or "intended" to be released when cinemas are still restricted or closed (I live in Azerbaijan and cinemas have been completely closed for over a year) in many countries. 

 But I found some time so here's the first batch: 

1. Afghanistan- “The Dogs Didn’t Sleep Last Night” Even before the Taliban took over in a terrifying, heartbreaking power grab, consigning women and minorities to a reign of terror, Afghanistan’s Oscar prospects were bleak. Two years ago, their film was disqualified over technicalities regarding their Oscar selection committee and they failed to send a film last year. Their most promising option is “The Dogs Didn’t Sleep Last Night”, which won an award at Fajr in Iran and which is about a rural community dealing with the aftermath of war. 

2. Albania- “Love: Dashuri” Albania has sent five films in the past seven years, declining to send any of their eligible films the other two. This year, I expect they’ll send romantic drama “Love: Dashuri” about a man who returns to his rural town after separating from his wife. Acclaimed Russian director Alexander Sokurov has also made a film in Albania this year (“Gjirokastra”, named after a beautiful tourist town I visited earlier this year) but Albanian directors had a hissy fit when American director Joshua Marston was selected a few years back so I think they’ll go local. I would predict “My Lake”, the final film by the late Gjergj Xhuvani, but IMDB says it was released too early. 

3. Algeria- “Héliopolis” Algeria announced that period drama “Héliopolis” would represent the country last year. However, when they changed the release date and declined to do a VOD release, they withdrew the film and announced that it would represent Algeria in 2021. There haven’t any other serious challenges this year (except perhaps French co-production “Sisters”, starring Isabelle Adjani) so I assume they’ll stick with that plan. 

4. Argentina- “Karnawal” I really don’t have any idea what Argentina will send as two of their frontrunners, “Azor” (Berlinale) and the star-studded “Official Competition” (directed by an Argentinian duo and starring Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz) are minority co-productions with Switzerland and Spain respectively. With the success of Mexico’s (overrated) shortlisted “I’m No Longer Here” I’m predicting Argentina will select urban dancer drama “Karnawal” (Toronto 2020), about a young man drawn into a life of crime by his father. That seems more likely than indigenous drama “Lonely Rock”. Others are predicting Lucrecia Martel documentary “Chocobar” or Sundance slacker drama “The Dog Who Wouldn’t Be Quiet”, which hasn’t gotten the best notices. Things are hard when Ricardo Darin takes the year off! 

5. Armenia- “Should the Wind Drop” Most people were surprised when this Cannes 2020 drama and French co-production wasn’t selected last year, but it didn’t premiere in Armenia until 2021. This drama about a technocrat sent to decide whether to reopen an airport in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory would be a topical choice, since Armenia lost the territory in a war last year. 

6. Australia- “When Pomegranates Howl” English-speaking Australia failed to submit a film last year for the first time since 2011; I think they just didn’t have anything eligible. This year, I’m pretty sure they will send “When Pomegrantes Howl” by Iranian exile director Granaz Moussavi, who is now based in Australia. The film, set in Kabul, Afghanistan, is about a 9-year old boy working to support his family in a very dangerous environment. The two Aboriginal stories- “High Ground” and “The Furnace”- both seem to be mostly in English, although “High Ground” might be eligible. 

7. Austria- “Great Freedom” Although Austria has made some questionable decision recently, I’m confident they will select Cannes “Un Certain Regard” Jury Prize winner and Sarajevo Grand Prize winner “Great Freedom”. This is a decidedly odd LGBT drama about a gay man imprisoned for his sexuality after World War II, who begins a relationship with his cellmate, a convicted murderer, that has gotten very good reviews. But last year, Austria picked a film that absolutely nobody liked…so they could select something out of left-field. Oscar winner Stefan Ruzowitzky (“The Counterfeiters”, possibly the least acclaimed Foreign Film winner in recent history) has a new thriller (“Hinterland”; Locarno), while sci-fi drama “The Trouble Being Born” won Best Picture at this year’s Austrian Film Awards. Arash and Arman Riahi also have two new films- refugee drama “Where No One Knows Us”, and “Fox in a Hole”, set in a prison school, as does Ulrich Seidl (the “Paradise” trilogy) with “Wicked Games”. But I think “Great Freedom” should be safe. 

8. Azerbaijan- “The Island Within” Unfortunately, Azerbaijan (where I live) is one of the only countries that no longer sends films to the Oscars. They sent films most years between 2007 and 2017 (seven films in eleven years) and then seem to have given up. Like in most countries, cinemas have been closed since the pandemic started and they don’t have a well-developed VOD service here. It’s a shame because they had two strong festival options last year and I’m trying to see if there’s any way to convince them to return. “The Island Within”, a drama about a chess prodigy that won Best Director at Sarajevo 2020, would seem to be the frontrunner. 

9. Bangladesh- “Rehana” It’s a two-way race to represent Bangladesh between Cannes darling “Rehana” (aka “Rehana Maryam Noor”) and “The Grave”, a local film produced and released in both English-language and Bengali-language versions. “Rehana” reportedly got a standing ovation at Cannes (at least according to local press) and focuses on a successful woman professor who witnesses a sexual assault on campus. While Bangladesh has shied away from some controversial films in the past (“Sunday Morning”), their committee has also been happy to nominate films (“Bed of Roses”) when they actually got a domestic release. Gravedigger tale “The Grave” has the back of Impress Telefilms (whose films are selected almost every year) but may have been released too early according to new COVID dates. Anyway, the Cannes label should see “Rehana” get this easily. 

10. Belarus- “Kupala” Last year, Belarus was disqualified because “Persian Lessons” a very likely shortlist contender, was not a majority Belarusian film. And although I usually encourage AMPAS to be lenient, it really wasn’t. This year, the frontrunner is “Kupala” an expensive nationalist biopic about a renowned poet, although there are rumors that its release was delayed out of concerns over offending Russia, which is propping up the government after a fraudulent election last year. If this is the case, perhaps they’ll choose slacker thriller “Three Comrades”, which looks quite interesting or “Courage”, if the Oscar selection committee is affiliated with the political opposition. 

11. Belgium- “The Enemy” Belgium is a hard one to predict this year, but I think it will be “The Enemy”, a bilingual crime drama about a prominent nationalist politician (Jérémie Renier) accused of murdering his wife. Two films focus on the effect that health problems have on an otherwise normal couple- Joaquim Lafosse’s “The Restless” (Cannes), about bipolar disorder, and Jan Verheyen’s “Red Sandra” about a child with a fatal muscular disease. Also very possible: bullying drama “Playground” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard), gangland crime drama “Ferry” (Netflix) and horror-drama “Inexorable”. 

12. Bhutan- “Dema Tsho” Bhutan tried to submit a film last year for the first time in twenty years, arranging an Oscar qualifying release for adorable rural drama “Lunana”, but were disqualified on a technicality because AMPAS said the Bhutanese Ministry of Culture was not an approved Oscar selection committee. I think Bhutan will submit a film the next time they have an international release, but they don’t have any this year. For the sake of completion, I’ll nominate “Dema Tsho”, which won Best Picture at the 2021 Bhutan Film Awards. 

13. Bolivia- “Unay” Bolivia has three new films by top directors whose films have been sent before, but they all have problems- “El Gran Movimiento” (Venice Horizons) by Kiro Russo isn’t expected to be released until 2022. Paranoia horror flick “Blood Red Ox” (Guadalajara) by Rodrigo Bellott looks like it may have too much English. And “Pseudo” by Gory Patino is a moral dilemma thriller about a taxi driver being convinced to commit an act of terrorism. I think “Unay”, a drama about rural youth becoming engaged with local cultural traditions, will be selected, in part because it is supported by a number of politicians and the Ministry of Culture. 

14. Bosnia-Herzegovina- “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affair” Though Bosnia has several options, it would be hard to see them not submitting a black comedy from Oscar winner Danis Tanovic (“No Man’s Land”). “Not So Friendly Neighborhood Affairs” is one of the first international films to address the COVID pandemic, and follows a Croatian tourist whose visit sets off a series of unfortunate events. In a different year, dramas “The White Fortress” and “So She Doesn’t Live”- both of which premiered at Sarajevo 2021- would have had an excellent shot. 

15. Brazil- “Seven Prisoners” Brazil is one of the hardest countries to predict because (a)- they make a lot of movies and (b)- they make strange choices. Last year’s inscrutable documentary “Babenco” was probably their oddest and worst pick yet. Having said all that, I think that “Seven Prisoners” is the likely frontrunner with commercial prospects (a Netflix deal), starpower (Rodrigo Santoro) and festival love (premiering at Toronto 2021). The Brazilian Academy likes gritty urban dramas and this story of modern-day slavery fits the bill. The Brazilian Academy has shown they do not like quirky genre benders (turning down “Good Manners”, “Bacurau” and others) which makes me think that “The Pink Cloud”- a Sundance entry written before the coronavirus about one-night stand that turns permanent when a toxic cloud keeps everyone in their homes indefinitely- will not be selected. Family dramas “The First Death of Joana” (LGBT) and “Duetto” (Italian heritage) are also dark horses. Brazil’s usually releases a very long shortlist and you can expect to see movies like “Doutour Gama” (anti-slavery), “The Last Forest” (an Amazon forest doc), “Madalena”, “Medusa” (an absurdist feminist musical horror film that screened at Cannes) and “Romancing Brazil” (interracial love). 

16. Bulgaria- “German Lessons” This seems to be a two-race between “February” and “German Lessons”, both of which were well-received and won prizes at the 2021 Sofia International Film Festival. I’m personally hoping they choose “German Lessons” (which won the “2nd Place” Jury Prize in the main competition and the International Critics Award in the Bulgarian competition), a midlife crisis film about a 50-something man with a violent temper, preparing to emigrate to Germany. “February”, has been playing at festivals (mostly online due to COVID) for over a year. The dreamy film about a man at age 8, 18 and 80 won Best Bulgarian Film at Sofia 2021 and director Kamen Kalev has been selected before. I would also be predicting refugee drama “Fear” (Strah)…but I think it was eligible last year. Dark horse: “Borat” Oscar nominee Maria Bakalova co-stars in Cannes feminist drama “Women Do Cry”….Reviews haven’t been stellar, but will Bakalova’s star turn make them choose it? 

17. Burkina Faso- “Night Nursery” Burkina Faso tried to submit a film two years ago but was told they didn’t have an approved committee. If they got that done, they could send documentary “Night Nursery”, about an unusual day-care for the children of Burkinabe sex workers. It had screenings at Berlin. They also have "Les Trois Lascars" which is the only local film in the Main Competition of the FESPACO Film Festival in Ouaga. It's a raucous comedy about three friends who take a secret vacation away from their wives but who are reported dead on the flight they were supposed to take.   

18. Cambodia- “White Building” A Horizons slot at the 2021 Venice Film Festival is probably all that was needed to make “White Building” Cambodia’s submission. The feature debut of an up-and-coming short film director, the film is about a 20-year old facing the demolition of his home in the capital, amidst Phnom Penh’s modernization boom. 

19. Cameroon- “Bendskins" (Moto Taxi) Cameroon made history last year as the first country to benefit from Oscar’s new rule allowing films in Pidgin English or English Creole dialects to compete in this category. They’ve also signed deals with Netflix for four local films to appear on the streaming platform (including last year’s Oscar submission “The Fisherman’s Diary”). I'm not sure they'll return this year, but they do have "Bendskins" (Moto Taxi), a French-language film about motorcycle taxi drivers that will premiere at FESPACO 2021.

  

20. Canada- “Drunken Birds” Canada has close to a dozen possible contenders, although I think that there are really just three films with a realistic chance of being selected- “Le Club Vinland”, which has a director who has already made the Oscar shortlist once before, “Drunken Birds”, which has the best reviews, and “Ste. Anne”, which won Best Canadian Film at the Toronto Film Festival. To my surprise, Canada’s Oscar submission doesn’t match the TIFF Canadian Film winner very closely- only two of the past eight (eligible) winners or runners-up were selected. So, although I was originally defaulting to “Ste. Anne” (which premiered in Berlin), this “formally experimental piece” about a Native American (Metis) returning to her hometown in Manitoba, sounds both too small and not interesting enough to represent a country as important as Canada. “Le Club Vinland”, a period piece about a priest and his students conducting an archaeological dig in 1949, looks like the sort of film that Canada would send in the 1990s or 2000s, and indeed director Benoit Pilon got a surprise Oscar shortlist spot for the unassuming “Necessities of Life” in 2008. But reviews are far better for “Drunken Birds”, a drama in French and Spanish starring one of the leads from “Roma”. It’s a film noir escape movie about a drug cartel employee who falls in love with the cartel leader’s wife and helps her escape to Canada. Canada tends to choose quality films, with none of the scheming and politicking of other countries. A few other dark horses include French co-production “Aline”, a fictional biopic about Celine Dion, abstract animated film “Archipelago”, the soon-to-released “Bootlegger”, about an indigenous community, period drama “Maria Chapdelaine”, about a 16-year old seducing three men in turn-of-the-century Quebec, and “Underground”, about a mining explosion. My prediction for Canada’s Top Five: (1)- “Drunken Birds”, (2)- “Le Club Vinland”, (3)- “Ste. Anne”, (4)- “Maria Chapdelaine” and (5)- “Bootlegger”.

21. Chad- “Lingui” Chad has selected two films in the past, both directed by Mahamat-Saleh Haroun (but not since 2013). He had a new film premiere in competition at Cannes, though the controversial topic (abortion and Islam) may mean the answer is no. 

22. Chile- “My Brothers Dream Awake" With Chile’s “Big Three” working in English (Pablo Larrain) or taking the year off (Sebastian Lelio and Andres Wood), the race to represent Chile is wide open; these three guys have represented Chile seven of the past ten years. With few options so far this year, the Chilean submission is likely to be a new film like “My Brothers Dream Awake” (Locarno), “Behind the Rain” (directed by Raoul Ruiz’s widow) and “Regresar al Final” although a possible dark horse is children’s animated film “Nahuel & the Magic Book”. Chile won the Best Animated Short category a few years ago and they’ve selected an animated film once before in this category. Choosing the well-reviewed “Nahuel” would be a non-starter for International Film but could boost the film’s chances in the Animated Feature category (this strategy probably helped “The Mole Agent” snag a Doc nomination last year). “La Veronica” has gotten quite a lot of festival play, and “The Burning Gaze” focuses on a pivotal event in Chilean history but I think neither is well-reviewed enough. This one is a mystery for me….

23. China- “Cliff Walkers” (aka “Impasse”) Directors from the People’s Republic of China have gotten four Foreign Oscar nominations (two for China and two for Hong Kong) and three of these went to Zhang Yimou. China used to pick him all the time but they haven’t selected any of his films since 2011 (including the well-reviewed “Shadow”). Still, it would be foolish to bet against him when he makes a nationalist anti-Japanese action movie like “Cliff Walkers” (aka “Impasse”)….since China generally picks nationalist action movies lately. Unlike most of China’s recent submissions (including lowlight “Wolf Warrior 2”), “Cliff Walkers” has decent reviews and elements of espionage and crime that could play well…even if you aren’t a Chinese nationalist who hates the Japanese. However, I worry that China will instead select “Chinese Doctors”, a propaganda film about the Wuhan COVID outbreak, directed by talented HK filmmaker Andrew Lau, who made the “Infernal Affairs” trilogy. Based on what they’ve sent recently, this looks highly likely….although reviews have been poisonous. Also possible: “Nezha Reborn”, the blockbuster sequel to the kiddie cartoon they sent in 2019, “Tracing Her Shadow”, about benevolent Chinese adopting Japanese war orphans, and inspiring sports drama “On Your Mark 

24. Colombia- “Amparo” Like last year, Colombia has one of the weakest races in South America. They don’t have much to choose from, meaning that “Amparo”, a low-key drama about a mother trying to keep her son from getting drafted into the army during Colombia’s violent civil war, is probably going to be their pick. It played at Cannes Critics Week and got decent reviews. I know some people are predicting the new Apichatpong movie that was filmed in Colombia, but it’s just not a Colombian film. I’m simply not sure what else they even have? “A Rust” is a rural drama premiering at San Sebastian…But that seems unlikely. Let’s go with “Amparo”. 

25. Congo-Kinshasa- “Rumba Rules, New Generalogies” Congo-Kinshasa submitted a film once, way back in 1997 but they haven’t sent anything since, even when they’ve had strong contenders. They could consider sending the Lingala-language music documentary “Rumba Rules”, featuring musicians based in the capital. But I doubt it. 

26. Costa Rica- “Clara Sola” Costa Rica had two films at major festivals this year and Cannes entry “Clara Sola” (Director’s Fortnight) probably has the edge over San Sebastian entry “Aurora”, both by up-and-coming female Costa Rican directors. “Clara Sola”, about the sexual awakening of a village woman “tinged with magical realism” will probably be selected on the strength of the Cannes label alone. The competition, “Aurora”, is about a woman helping out a frightened, pregnant teenaged girl.

27. Cote d’Ivoire- “Ekoua” Cote d’Ivoire (formerly known as the Ivory Coast) made the shortlist last year for “Night of the Kings”. This year, the only local film I know of is “Ekoua”, a rare African anime feature about a 19-year priestess sent back in time. 

28. Croatia- “Murina” Will Croatia go for the veteran or the debutante? “Murina”, the feature debut of NYC-based Antoneta Kusijanovic, got warm reviews at Cannes Director’s Fortnight (winning the Camera d’Or for First Feature) and won the Audience Award at the Pula Film Festival among new Croatian films. Variety called it “superb” and coined the term “sunshine noir” for this tale of a teenage girl travelling to the beach with her domineering father and the rest of her family. Waiting in the wings is veteran Croatian director Zrinko Ogresta, a 62-year old who repped Croatia three times between 1995 and 2016 and his latest “A Blue Flower”, a character study of a middle-aged woman, which competed in Moscow and won Best Croatian Film and Best Croatian Director at the Pula Film Festival (defeating “Murina”). I’m pretty sure it will be one of these two, but last year Croatia picked a movie out of left field that nobody liked (except me…I found “Extracurricular” thrilling and charming) and that won no awards….So, I wouldn’t completely count out three other films by previously selected directors: dystopian thriller “The Dawn” (winner of four tech awards at Pula), a spare nationalistic profile of war veterans “Once We Were Good for You” (Best Actor, Screenplay at Pula) and “Tereza37”, about a married woman whose life changes when sometimes jokingly suggests she have an affair to get pregnant (Winner, Best Croatian Film and many other awards at the 2020 Pula Festival). There’s also school drama “The Staffroom” (Karlovy Vary). 

29. Cuba- “Mambo Man” Cuba has two strong options this year and despite sensitive subjects, both of them screened at the 2020 Havana Film Festival, showing that they were able to get past the government censors. I think the less controversial “Mambo Man” will be Cuba’s submission. Directed by a respected national musician who has won awards from the Communist government but who was also invited to join AMPAS in 2017, “Mambo Man” is about a farmer and musician who becomes involved in a scam in the “new” Cuba, where capitalism is starting to take hold. “The Last Rafter”, which would probably be a better choice, is about a young man who travels to Florida in a raft the same week that the United States changed its policy on Cuban immigration, rendering him illegal. Although it screened in Cuba, this might be too much to represent the country at the Oscars. “Mambo Man” is a safer choice. 

30. Czech Republic- “My Sunny Maad” The Czech Republic has a long tradition of animation and they selected an animated film (“Alois Nebel”) and partly animated film (“Lunacy”) in 2011 and 2006 respectively. With Afghanistan in the news, I’m predicting they make a bold and surprising choice and send “My Sunny Maad”, about a Czech woman who marries an Afghan man and moves to post (pre?)-Taliban Afghanistan to be with him. With few other choices, the Czechs may see this as an opportunity to position themselves in the Animated Film race. It’s probably more likely that they’ll choose sports biopic “Zatopek” or one of the two Czech fiction features premiering at Karlovy Vary- “Bird Atlas” (by Olmo Omerzu whose terrible “Winter Flies” was one of the worst Oscar submissions of 2018) or grim, family drama “Saving One Who Was Dead”. But I have a feeling “Maad” will be the one. 

31. Denmark- “Shadows In My Eyes” Denmark (population: 5.9 million) is the most successful country in the world right now in this category. In the past eleven years, they have been shortlisted eight times. Of those eight, six got Oscar nominations. Two won, including last year’s “Another Round”. So, Denmark is looking for a nomination every year. They typically release a three-film shortlist and there are five films widely expected to contend: “Flee” (Sundance), an animated documentary about an LGBT Afghan, “Margrethe I, Queen of the North”, a 15th century royal intrigue costume drama, Oscar winner Bille August’s latest old-fashioned period drama “The Pact”, World War II thriller “Shadows in My Eyes”, and “A Taste of Hunger”, about a couple running an elite, trendy restaurant. The finalists are almost certain to be “Flee”, “Queen Margrethe” and “Shadows in My Eyes”. Although “Flee” has the most buzz and incredible early reviews, I think its original, experimental format will doom it to third place. Between the two period dramas (neither of which has screened yet). “Shadows In My Eyes”, which has a Netflix deal, is my prediction. Its story of the accidental British bombing of a school is going to be much more accessible to American audiences than the palace intrigue between the Northern European kingdoms six hundred years ago…even if Trine Dyrholm is playing The Queen. 

32. Dominican Republic- “Hotel Coppelia” The Dominican Republic has four strong options this year. It would be foolish to count out Jose Maria Cabral, who has been selected three times since 2012 for three excellent films, and “Hotel Coppelia” has a U.S. hook, following the 1965 U.S. invasion of the island through the eyes of a group of prostitutes working at a brothel. But a big part of me wants to predict “Carajita”, a family drama about a rich girl and her family who retreat to a rural village, which is home to her nanny and her estranged daughter. It will premiere at San Sebastian which is a big thing for the DR. “More than Water” starring Frank Perozo (who stars in a lot of the Dominican submissions) as one of two marijuana dealing brothers, and “Liborio”, about a 20th century mystical prophet, could also factor into the decision.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Cyprus is the only EU country that has never sent a film to the Oscars...and they're one of the only film-producing nations in the world that has never participated. Cyprus produces some good films (I liked "Smuggling Hendrix") and their films regularly participate in Greek festivals so I'm not sure why they're absent. This year, they could easily send "Senior Citizen", about the life of a lonely old man, if they form a committee. It played at Thessaloniki and Cyprus Film days (where it won the Audience Award).  But they could also send drama "Patchwork" or black comedy "Ballad for a Pierced Heart". Botswana has teen pregnancy drama "Dithunya tsa Rona", though that seems highly unlikely.