Oscar Predictions for the Middle East and Africa

ALGERIA- “Six Feet Over” Algeria took last year off, although they reportedly did form a committee. I’m not sure what happened. Despite Algeria’s strong anti-colonialist stance, the Algerian Academy tends to prefer films made by Algerian-French rather than homegrown directors….which has always struck me as odd. So, I suspect they’ll pick “Six Feet Over”, a drama about an Algerian university student trying to regularize his immigration status in Lyon. It’s a largely French production but director Karim Bensalah is French and Algerian (and Brazilian!).  In second place, there’s mystery “No Harm Done”, about an actress confronted by a series of murders. It’s directed by Merzak Allouache who repped Algeria way back in 1996. Algeria did have a film at Berlinale Panorama- the grotesquely titled period drama “True Chronicles of the Blida Joinville Psychiatric Hospital in the Last Century, when Dr Frantz Fanon Was Head of the Fifth Ward between 1953 and 1956”….And if it premieres in time, I could see them choosing 16^th century period biopic “Sidi Lakhdar Ben Khlouf” about an acclaimed poet. However, they ignored a much bigger period drama last year and poetry always loses something in translation.

BURKINA FASO- “Katanga- The Dance of the Scorpions ” There’s a great article about how Burkina Faso’s Islamic insurgency and recent military coups have affected the country’s status as Africa’s capital of arthouse cinema. Burkina Faso sent the tragically beautiful “Sira” last year (their first submission in over 30 years) which certainly deserved to be among the Final 5 Oscar nominees. This year, director and griot Dani Kouyate has completed his first film in a decade- an African noir version of Shakespeare’s Macbeth. Burkina Faso’s film industry revolves around the bi-annual FESPACO Film Festival which takes place in 2023 and 2025. That’s why local films premiere in odd years so I think “Katanga” is more likely to compete next year…especially since domestic instability has reduced the number of films produced. We’ll see. It would be great to have Burkina Faso as a more regular participant. 

CAMEROON- “Nganu” Cameroon is split into two linguistic areas- a large French-speaking region and a smaller English-speaking region. Since 2020, Cameroon has sent four films by Anglophone directors from the country’s small NorthWest region in the English-speaking part. I suspect they’ll send “Nganu”, which got a Netflix deal, about an abusive husband who joins the army to channel his anger and rage. The director is also from the Northwest and was an actor/producer on one of Cameroon’s previous submissions. Other options include crime drama “Abakwa” (directed by the Assistant Director of another of Cameroon’s previous submissions and who is also a Northwesterner). The director of “Silent Storm” has been picked twice before, but the film looks like it has way too much (standard) English to qualify.

CHAD- Nothing Chad’s premier international director (and former Minister of Culture) Mahamat-Saleh Haroun has sent three of his films to the Oscars since 2002. He hasn’t made a film since “Lingui” (which was very good!) in 2021. I don’t think they have anything eligible.

CONGO-KINSHASA- “Rising Up At Night” Congo hasn’t sent a film since their Oscar debut in 1997…that’s a longer gap than any country in the world, other than Kuwait. Last year would have been a good year to return since Belgian co-production “Omen” likely would have qualified (Belgium sent it instead). This year, a Congolese director competed in Berlinale Panorama with documentary “Rising Up At Night”, about how persistent blackouts and electricity shortages affect ordinary Congolese. 

CÔTE D’IVOIRE- “Gla” The Ivory Coast sent movies in 2015 and 2020 directed by French-Ivorian director Philippe LaCôte. He doesn’t have any films this year (IMDB says he’s working on his English-language debut with Joseph Gordon Levitt and Shailene Woodley) so they’re unlikely to send anything. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Gla”, a French-language horror-drama about a traditional African mask.

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EGYPT- “Flight 404” Egypt usually sends a film though they’ve missed two of the past ten years. The majority of their films have been “arthouse” dramas, though last year they sent a very well-reviewed commercial comedy. This year, they had two films at Cannes sidebars (docudrama “The Brink of Dreams” and comedy-drama “East of Noon”) and it’s just been announced that they’ll have two more films at Venice sidebars this year (“Seeking Haven for Mr. Rambo” and “Perfumed With Mint”). To these options, I would add two films by previously submitted directors (Hani Khalifa’s “Flight 404” and Abu Bakr Shawky’s “Hajjan” from Toronto 2023) plus “Rat Hole”, a drama that just competed in Moscow. I see the three key contenders as “Flight 104”, “Hajjan” and the upcoming “Seeking Haven for Mr. Rambo”. Ultimately, I think the box-office success and strong critical reviews will boost melodrama “Flight 404”, about a pious Egyptian woman who returns to a past she isn’t proud of when confronted with a financial emergency, to be the Egyptian nominee. “Mr. Rambo”, which will premiere in Venice in September, about a man seeking to protect his dog who has been accused by a neighbor of being vicious, could be picked if it gets good reviews…but it won’t have much time to premiere in Egypt by the September 30 deadline. Camel racing Saudi co-production “Hajjan” should also be a strong contender.

ETHIOPIA- “Doka” Ethiopia sent four films between 2010-2019 and then seemingly gave up. Because of the “five-year rule”, it’s my understanding that Ethiopia will have to reapply to AMPAS if they don’t send a film this year. So, I’m hopeful that they send “Doka” , a new drama about a nurse who saves a child during wartime.

GHANA- “Tejiri” Ghana only sent a movie to the Oscars once in 2019 and they’re unlikely to send anything this year. Most of their movies are made in English, although they do have the mistaken identity comedy “Kwame Atta”, which is mostly in Akan and thriller “Tejiri” which repped Ghana at the Zanzibar Film Festival…but appears to have premiered on television.

IRAN- TBD I've honestly no idea what they'll send....I'll fill this in later. 

IRAQ- “1988” Iraq sends some of the most interesting submissions year after year and it’s a shame they haven’t been nominated yet (my personal favorite was “Reseba: The Dark Wind”). With the country more stable, they have sent films eight of the past ten years. This year, they are likely to send “1988”, about the Saddam Hussein regime’s chemical weapon attacks against Kurdish civilians at Halabja. Arabic directors have been chosen three of the past four years, so it is fitting that this year’s contenders are all from the Kurdish north. They could also consider “Transient Happiness”, a family drama about an elderly couple that just got a release on Amazon, “Where is Gilgamesh?”, about a museum guard trying to recover a lost artifact, or “Grief”, a social drama. 

ISRAEL- “Pink Lady” In late July, Israel announced the 30 feature films that would compete for the 2024 Ophir Awards, which essentially doubles as a “longlist” for the Israeli submission (I think there were 28 last year). It’s a pretty obscure list- only one, rap musical “The City”, has more than 40 votes on IMDB…18 out of 30 don’t have any. The key to predicting Israel’s submission is to predict the five Best Picture nominees at the Ophirs. This is almost impossible to do with such a poorly known list but my guesses are “Come Closer” (Tribeca), “EID” (Winner, Best Israeli Film, 2024 Jerusalem Film Festival), “Pink Lady” (Nir Bergman, 1-time winner and 5-time nominee in this category), “Reading Lolita in Tehran” (a Persian-language drama directed by Eran Riklis and starring exiled Iranian actresses Golshifteh Farahani and Zar Amir Ebrahimi) and “Under the Shadow of the Sun”. However, this lineup would be unusual since it would focus on three minority (Bedouin, Persian and Ethiopian) communities. So, “Milk”, “Neither Day Nor Night” and “Soda” are almost equally probable Ophir nominees. You can see a full list of 29 of the 30 eligible Israeli films here (one- Dondi Schwartz's "Absolutely Combative" isn't on IMDB yet). As for the winner, I’m stumped….it’s way too early to tell until these films get screened for critics. But for now, I’m predicting “Pink Lady”, an upcoming drama about an ultra-Orthodox family who are being blackmailed over a homosexual affair. Bergman is a consistent director who hasn’t won in two decades, and women directors have been picked three of the past four years…so their luck has to run out eventually. As runner-up, I have Tribeca First Feature “Come Closer”, a semi-autobiographical drama about the grief of a young woman for the sudden death of her brother. “EID”, about an Arab Bedouin family, should finish a strong third. UPDATE: "Pink Lady" didn't make the list but I got two right- "Come Closer" and "Eid"- plus my alternate "Milk". Also on the list of finalists: "Highway 65" (not a surprise) plus "Halisa" and "Girls Like Us". "Come Closer" got the most nominations so that's my new prediction.  All except "Halisa" also got Best Director nominations, so that's probably the most unlikely.

JORDAN- “The Strangers’ Case” There are always confusing nationality cases in this category and this year, that looks likely to affect Jordan. “The Strangers’ Case” is a well-reviewed film focusing on the international refugee crisis, and how events in places like Syria can eventually affect countries on the other side of the world. Reviews are good, the short film it was based on was shortlisted for an Oscar (it didn’t get nominated) and it got a prestigious berth in the “Berlinale Special” section….where it was credited as a wholly Jordanian production. The problem? The writer/director is American. Contrary to popular belief, films with American directors have been allowed to compete in the past (Angelina Jolie, Josh Kim) but it’s always risky because AMPAS is often inconsistent in its decisions. Still, I think “Strangers” will qualify. If not, they could send “Saleem”, possibly Jordan’s first animated film, or “My Sweet Land”, a documentary about Armenia.

KENYA- “The Battle for Laikipia” Kenya has submitted films seven years in a row….That’s the best record of any country in Sub-Saharan Africa….But for the past three years they have selected local films that weren’t known outside Kenya…and that did not do particularly well with critics. Hopefully this year will be different because they have two strong options. Documentary “The Battle for Laikipia” played at the Sundance Film Festival and focuses on race relations and climate change in rural Kenya. The co-directors are a Greek woman (who got an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short) and a Kenyan man. Coming-of-age drama “After the Long Rains” is about a young village girl who aspires to be an actress in Europe. The director is Swiss-Kenyan. This will be difficult but I’m picking “Laikipia” because it has one director who was actually born and raised in Kenya.

KUWAIT- “Honeymoonish”  The conservative Gulf kingdom of Kuwait used to submit films in the 1970s but hasn’t sent a film since 1978….46 years ago. Oddly enough, their best option this year is the frothy rom-com “Honeymoonish” , about a newly married couple who realize how incompatible they are while on their honeymoon. It’s the first-ever Netflix movie from Kuwait. 

LEBANON- “Arzé” Lebanon failed to send a film last year, for the first time since 2012. I found this very surprising…although I just learned that the two films I predicted they would send (“Mother Valley” and “Dirty Difficult Dangerous”) didn’t get a domestic release until 2024. So maybe that’s why? Both appear to be eligible this year. Two other films- “Arzé” and “Valley of Exile”-  will probably help coax Lebanon back to the competition.  It will be difficult to choose between these four but I expect the feminist “Mother Valley” may be too French and “Dirty”, about the relationship between two migrants from Syria and Ethiopia, may not be considered “Lebanese enough”. “Arzé” (Tribeca) about a family confronted by a stolen bicycle, probably has the edge over Syrian refugee drama “Valley of Exile”…although the fact that the latter film was filmed in a refugee camp may tug at Lebanese heartstrings. It will be close!

LESOTHO- Nothing The tiny Kingdom of Lesotho submitted festival darling “This Is a Burial, Not a Resurrection” during the pandemic in 2020….but they haven’t produced any feature films since. We’ll probably have to wait until director Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese makes his next movie to see Lesotho back.

MALAWI- “16 Barz: King of Bawo” Malawi has sent dramas twice since 2018. This year, they could coming-of-age musical “16 Barz: King of Bawo”, which has the same screenwriter of their last submission.

MAURITANIA- “Black Tea”  Mauritania submitted the brilliant “Timbuktu” as their first-ever Oscar submission way back in 2014….and it got a well-deserved Oscar nomination. Director Abderrahmane Sissako took ten years to make his next movie…and “Black Tea” finally came out in 2024 after years of production delays. The film- about Africans in China- premiered at Berlinale but it has not gotten great reviews so it’s unclear if Mauritania will take the time to send it or not. I think it looks quite interesting.  

MOROCCO- “Hounds” For the second year in a row, I’m predicting father-son thriller and 2023 Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize winner “Hounds”, which premiered in Morocco in January 2024. Another movie about Moroccan criminals from Cannes 2023- “Deserts”- is also eligible this year. “Deserts” is a lighter film by a previous submitted director but reviews for “Hounds” are better. Both got competition berths at the Marrakech International Film Festival, alongside last year’s submission “Mother of All Lies”. Also possible: coming-of-age drama “Fez Summer ‘55” and Moroccan Film Festival winner “My Father Is Not Dead”. Other options seem unlikely- sci-fi drama “Animalia” and fever-dream “Birdland” aren’t universally liked, and “Moroccan Badass Girl” and “Coup de tampon” don’t seem serious enough…As one final note, Morocco never fails to send a Nabyl Ayouch movie but his latest Cannes drama “Everybody Loves Touda” is scheduled to screen in Moroccan cinemas at the end of the year….though they could technically arrange a qualifying release.

MOZAMBIQUE- “The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder” Mozambique sent a film in 2017 and they are still the only Portuguese-speaking country in Africa to do so. This year, they actually have two interesting contenders that could be their second entry. Documentary “The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder” screened at Berlinale Forum this year. It’s about one family’s memories of Mozambique’s brutal 15-year civil war. Arthouse drama “Hidden Era” played at the Tribeca Film Festival, and is about a local artist trying to provide for his family in the capital, Maputo. I’d love Mozambique to enter. I’d give “Nights” the edge because the director is Mozambican, while “Hidden Era” is directed by a Berlin-based Colombian. (though Mozambique’s first submission was directed by a Brazilian!).

NAMIBIA- “Lukas” Namibia sent a film to the Oscars for the first time last year with the surreal Lynchian mystery “Under the Hanging Tree” which I really liked…though I couldn’t really articulate  why. This year, they’re likely to submit “Lukas”, directed by a Frenchman who has lived in Namibia for over 25 years. It’s a drama in Afrikaans about a kid living on the streets of Windhoek, the capital. Director Philippe Talavera is probably most famous for directing Namibia’s first LGBT film a few years back.

NIGER- “2G” Niger sent a film just once in 2018. I don’t think they have anything eligible but documentary “2G”, made by an Algerian-Swiss director in Niger, follows the lives of four human smugglers and their lives in the barren Sahara Desert.

NIGERIA- “Freedom Way” Nigeria, home to Africa’s largest (though not best) film industry, has sent three films to the Oscars since 2019. After the disqualification of “Lionheart”, AMPAS decided that films can be sent in Pidgin English (which is ironic because “Lionheart” was in standard English so it seems like it wouldn’t have qualified anyway). Since then, Cameroon and Nigeria have benefited from this new rule…but it’s still a gray area. This year, “Freedom Way”, a new arthouse drama emulating “Crash”, will premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, but I’m not confident it will meet the language requirements as it’s advertised as being in English…but it’s still Nigeria’s best chance. If it’s not eligible, I predict they’ll send “Lakatabu (The Monster)”, a crime thriller mixed with supernatural mysticism in Yoruba…it’s much more in the traditional Nollywood mold. It’s also possible they’ll vote not to send anything (like in 2021 and 2022) …but there’s also Ibo-language Netflix funeral drama “Afamefuna” and Yoruba-language wedding comedy “Ajosepo”.

PALESTINE- “No Other Land” With no end in sight to the war in Palestine, the Palestinian Academy (which I understand is affiliated with the Palestinian Ministry of Culture) is going to look for a film that will rally support to the Palestinian cause…so documentaries will have the advantage. The obvious choice would be “No Other Land” (Berlin), in which a collective of Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers work together to highlight military atrocities in the West Bank. It has very good reviews and shows interethnic cooperation. Another doc, “From Ground Zero” features a compilation of 22 amateur short films shot in Gaza during this year’s conflict. It would also check this box. I personally prefer fiction features and Palestine has two great ones- “To A Land Unknown” (Cannes), about two Palestinian refugees in Greece, and “The Teacher” (Toronto), by Oscar-nominated Palestinian-British director Farah Nabulsi. If selected, “The Teacher” will have AMPAS getting out the stopwatch because it’s roughly half in English. Dark horse: doc “Life is Beautiful”, about a Palestinian filmmaker who goes away on a one-month work trip only to find he’s unable to return to Gaza for seven years after the borders are closed.  

SAUDI ARABIA- “Norah” Saudi Arabia only legalized cinemas in 2018 but they’ve now sent five films in a row.  They’ve sent a diverse group of seven quirky films, including a bold romantic comedy, a supernatural folk tale,  a feminist political drama, and a Saudi “Wolf of Wall Street”. This would have been unthinkable just a decade ago and I really love watching the Saudi submissions. This year, they have three main contenders- “Hajjan” and “Night Courier” (both from Toronto 2023) and “Norah”, the first Saudi Arabian film to premiere in Cannes Un Certain Regard, where it won a Special Mention. The Saudi Academy has mostly chosen popular commercial films in the last few years, which bodes well for dark, alcohol-fueled comedy “Night Courier”, about Saudi Arabia’s new underground nightlife. But the Cannes label will help “Norah”, about the life of a young woman living in a small  community prior to liberalizing reforms. “Hajjan”, a traditional coming-of-age tale set in the Wadi Rum desert, will likely come in third since it doesn’t have a Saudi director. This is a tough call…both frontrunners are feature debuts that are said to be flawed but very promising. I can’t wait to see both but I’m predicting “Norah”. Possible spoiler: upcoming drama “Hobal”.

SENEGAL- “Dahomey” Senegal has become a regular participant in this category, sending five films in the seven years since they made their Oscar debut, This looks like a fierce two-way race between two previously submitted directors who premiered their films at Berlinale- Mati Diop’s “Dahomey” and Mamadou Dia’s “Demba”. Documentary “Dahomey” won the Golden Bear and Mati Diop was shortlisted for her (overrated) African ghost story “Atlantics”….all but assuring her selection. “Dahomey” follows the repatriation of a number of cultural artifacts from France to Benin.  I actually think drama “Demba”, about a retired Senegalese civil servant dealing with grief and depression would actually do better with AMPAS…but that Golden Bear will make this an uphill battle. It’s only hope is that “Dahomey” doesn’t get a domestic release in Senegal in time.

SOMALIA- “The Village Next to Paradise” Somalia sent a film to the Oscars once in 2021, with the excellent “Gravedigger’s Wife”. This year, they had “The Village Next to Paradise” in the Un Certain Regard section of Cannes. It’s a slice-of-life drama set in a Somalian village made by a first-time Somalian director based in Austria, and it would be a great way to highlight the country’s nascent cinema.

SOUTH AFRICA- “Carissa” No longer a strong contender in this category, South Africa is often handicapped by the fact that its best films are made in English. Last year they sent a documentary about Zulu music and the year before they didn’t send anything at all (for the first time since 2007). This year saw a slight uptick in the number of films in local languages….but most of them don’t have release dates, putting their eligibility at risk. The most prestigious possibility is the Afrikaans-language “Carissa”, about a woman who gets a job with a company that she learns is going to dispossess her family’s ancestral land. It’s due to premiere at Venice Horizons in September and is one of the films without a domestic release date. Among the other possibilities are a trio of films that premiered at the 2024 Durban International Film Festival- comedy-thriller “Sierra’s Gold” (in Afrikaans, English and Zulu), comedy “Month End” (in Tswana), and crime drama “Sonti” (in Sotho).  Of these, the low-budget “Sonti” looks like the gritty sort of film that South Africa usually sends. Less likely: crime drama “Inkabi” (in Zulu) and sports drama “Queenstown Kings” (in Xhosa) look like they premiered on Netflix which is no longer allowed post-pandemic.

SUDAN- Nothing  Last year’s “Goodbye Julia” would probably have been my Oscar winner. The fact that it wasn’t even shortlisted shows how unfair the system is. Sudan is in the middle of a brutal civil war and as far as I know, there are no eligible films this year.

SYRIA- “Under the Sky of Damascus” A selection committee in exile, allied to the national opposition, submitted a documentary to the Oscars once in 2017. They haven’t sent anything since but – if they did – it would probably be feminist documentary “Under the Sky of Damascus” which seeks to expose domestic violence and misogyny in the country. It played at Berlinale 2023.

TANZANIA- “EONII” In 2022, Tanzania submitted a film for the first time in over twenty years, with great fanfare, but then they skipped last year. They have a few options, including EONII, the country’s first-ever sci-fi movie and one that won Best Tanzanian Feature at the 2023 Zanzibar International Film Festival. They could also consider “The Empty Grave” (Berlin), a documentary and German co-production which looks at atrocities committed under colonial rule.  Less likely: “Muhali”, a drama about Zanzibari cultural traditions. We may have a better idea when ZIFF 2024 announces its winners on August 4.

TUNISIA- “Who Do I Belong To?” Tunisia appears to have an easy decision since Tunisian-Canadian director and Oscar Short Film nominee Meryam Joobeur made her feature debut in the Main Competition of the Berlin Film Festival with “Who Do I Belong To?”, an expansion of her Oscar-nominated Short Film “Brotherhood”. It’s about a jihadist returnee from Syria- a subject that Tunisia has often featured in its submissions. If that doesn’t get a Tunisian release, it’s likely to be “The Needle”, about a family disrupted by the birth of an intersex child, or possibly “Behind the Mountains”. Unlikely: Tunisia has three new films at Locarno (“Agora” and “Red Path”) and Venice (“Aicha”)…. but Tunisian films usually take a long time to reach cinemas…expect them to be considered next year.  

TURKEY- “Dormitory” Turkey (Türkiye) has sent three films by Nuri Bilge Ceylan and two by Semih Kaplanoğlu in the past ten years. Since neither has a film in the running this year, it’s a wide open race in Turkey. The other five years, they sent three small arthouse dramas and two commercial movies with cute kids. The Turks have a huge film industry but I’m hearing the frontrunner is the 3-hour melodrama “Life” about a conservative father on the hunt for his daughter fleeing a marriage he arranged. That’s definitely very possible, but I’m predicting “Dormitory”, a coming-of-age drama about a boy sent against his will to an Islamic school by his newly converted father. However, I’m hearing that may be a controversial choice for some reason…Also possible: “Not What You Think”, about three siblings who meet after the death of their father, “Hesitation Wound” (Venice Horizons), about a murder investigation, “The Reeds” (Toronto), about a village dominated by local gangs, and “Sayara”, about a Turkmen immigrant investigating the murder of her sister. Less likely: rock biography “Tears of Cem Karaca” and Ottoman horror-drama “Cadi”, which both have good reviews but are probably a little too commercial for the Turkish Academy.

UGANDA- “Lions of Buganda” Uganda submitted for the first time in 2022 with the low-budget but very entertaining “Tembele”. Recently there has been a growing trend to make movies in indigenous African languages rather than English, including Luganda and Swahili. At this year’s film awards, 3 of the 5 Best Picture nominees were in African languages. The two big winners were “Makula” which won four awards, including Best Picture and Best Director, and “Lions of Buganda” which won three awards, including Best Indigenous Language Film. Ironically “Makula” beat “Lions” for Best Picture while “Lions” beat “Makula” for Best Indigenous Film. Human trafficking melodrama “Makula” has better reviews than “Lions”, but the royal costumes and action scenes look better so that’s my prediction. 

YEMEN- “The First Lecture” Yemen has submitted three excellent films over the years, including last year. This year they have a medium-length film (55 minutes) called “The First Lecture”, about a man wooing a young woman whose sister has cancer. Movies over 40 minutes are eligible so this is probably their only potential submission. An interesting new film- “The Station”- by Oscar-nominated Scottish-Yemeni filmmaker Sara Ishaq could potentially compete for Yemen next year.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (35 countries)

And here are my predictions for the countries from Africa and the Middle East:

1. Algeria- “The Last Queen” Two years ago, Algeria selected "Heliopolis" but changed their mind when the film's release date was changed.....They submitted the film the following year. I'm predicting the same thing happens this year. Although "The Last Queen" was on last year's Algerian shortlist, it finally premiered in Algeria in June 2023. It's a glossy historical drama about a 15th century princess negotiating political intrigue, and it's been billed as Algeria's first costume drama. If they don't consider that to be eligible, “Soula”, an indie film about the hardships of a single mother in conservative Algerian society, would be the most appropriate Algerian submission. It played in a special sidebar section at FESPACO (Africa’s most prestigious film festival) and got a domestic release in France. 

2. Burkina Faso- “Sira” Director Apolline Traore was unsuccessful at negotiating the AMPAS bureaucracy when she tried to submit “Desrances” a few years ago. African arthouse power Burkina Faso hadn't sent a film since their debut in 1989 and the country did not have an approved committee at the time. Traore’s “Sira”, about a young woman who survives an Islamic terror attack, won the Best Film award at Berlin Panorama, so I’m really hoping they return.  

3. Cameroon- “Half Heaven” Cameroon has sent films three years in a row now, making them one of only two countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to do so (the other is Kenya). Oddly enough, all three movies were made by filmmakers from the country’s Northwest Region, home to the country’s English-speaking minority. For that reason, I’m predicting “Half Heaven”, a Christian-themed drama by the director of “The Fisherman’s Diary”, which brought them back to the Oscars in 2020 after a 30-year absence. It has gotten screened in both the USA and regional powerhouse Nigeria. Like “Fisherman’s Diary”, it’s in a local dialect of English. “Mambar Pierrette”, a naturalistic look at the life of a young mother which played at Cannes Director’s Fortnight, or “Le spectre du Boko Haram”, a topical documentary from the French side, would probably be better choices.

4. Chad- “Choose Me” (Amchilini) Chad only competes at the Oscars when Mahamat-Saleh Haroun has a new movie. But for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Choose Me”, an interesting documentary about how attitudes towards arranged marriages and proposals are changing in modern-day Chad.

5. Congo-Kinshasa- “Omen” Congo-Kinshasa hasn’t sent a film since 1997 but I’m really hoping that could change after “Omen” premiered in Un Certain Regard at Cannes 2023. It’s an ensemble piece about a man who returns to his home country from Europe and finds himself amongst a group accused of sorcery. It's one of the films in this group that I want to see the most. 

6. Côte d'Ivoire- “Je reste photographe”  Côte d'Ivoire hasn’t sent a film since they were shortlisted for “Night of the Kings” in 2020. They were represented at FESPACO by documentary “Je reste photographe”, a documentary about an artistic inheritance. But they probably won’t enter.

7. Egypt- “Hajjan” Egypt announced a five-film shortlist last year- including three movies by previously submitted directors- and then voted that none of the films were good enough to represent the country at the Oscars. This year, the situation is even more bleak. So far this year, Egyptian cinema has mostly been a flurry of silly comedies and they've been virtually absent from international festivals. Even at CIFF (Cairo International Film Festival), there were only two Egyptian features- “19B” (one of the five films rejected last year) and music documentary “Far from the Nile”. Two promising films- Saudi co-production “Hajjan” (by the director of “Yomeddine”) and the controversial “The Atheist” are finished but don’t have any domestic release dates yet, although "Hajjan" will premiere in Toronto. Melodramas “I Am For Your Lover” and “Kamla” (Red Sea Film Festival) have gotten limited releases in Egypt. I’m wondering if Egypt may skip this year again....but “Hajjan” could be selected if it’s released in Egypt in time. 

8.     8. Ethiopia- “Doka” Ethiopia has sent four films since 2010 but they’ve been busy with a civil war and absent since 2019. They make a lot of low-budget movies for local consumption but there’s nothing they are likely to send to the Oscars. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Doka”, about a nurse and a little girl who find themselves caught up in a violent conflict. 

       9. Asantewaa” Ghana’s “Ghollywood” film industry makes most of its films in English, while rival “Kumawood” makes movies in the local Akan/Twi language….However, Kumawood has been in decline, and I don’t see any strong contenders. But I’ll predict children’s animated film “Asantewaa- Battle for the Golden Stool”, which is in Twi and English. Ghana launches a call for submissions every year but has only sent a movie once, in 2019. Last year, GhanaWeb campaigned for the critically acclaimed “Borga”…but Ghana didn’t send it.

10.  Iran- “Cause of Death: Unknown” Despite poor relations with the U.S., Iran has missed only two years since they joined the Oscar competition in 1994 (including a rather ridiculous public boycott over a YouTube video in 2012). I’m seriously confused as to what Iran will send this year, and a big part of me expects they may select a late release like last year that we may not have heard of yet. Last year, they selected the brilliant and underrated “World War III” which definitely would have been in my Top Five.  And although it's true that Iran usually sends a wonderful film, their selection committee will limit their candidates to films that are politically acceptable and made by approved directors. So, the critically acclaimed “Terrestrial Verses” (Cannes), about people beaten down by the Islamic bureaucracy, is out of luck, as is “Beyond the Wall” (Venice) which hasn’t passed the censors. I’m going out on a limb and predicting “Cause of Death: Unknown”, a thriller about seven strangers on a minibus who decide to split a passenger’s money when he mysteriously dies on the journey. Two other strong possibilities: “Cinema Metropole” is an ode to cinema (like “Cinema Paradiso” or “Last Film Show”) that won Best Iranian Film at the Fajr Film Festival. But only two Fajr winners in the past 20 years have gone to the Oscars, so it’s not a strong precursor; “Empty Nets” (Karlovy Vary), about two young lovers forced to keep their relationship secret. Rounding out the Top Five Iranian options are “In the Arms of the Tree” about a married couple in crisis, and social drama “Leather Jacket Man”, about women plagued by drug addiction.  Also possible: acclaimed Afghan migrant drama “Endless Borders” (Rotterdam), comedy “Fosil”, historical drama “Intoxicated By Love”, father-son drama “Scent of Wind”, and family drama “A Tale of Shermoon” (San Sebastian). In my opinion, this is the hardest country to predict in the group.

11. Iraq- “Hanging Gardens” Iraq has two distinct film industries, one in the Kurdish-speaking North and one in the Arabic-speaking south, and the Iraqi Academy tries to alternate between the two. This year it looks like a two-way race between Arabic “Hanging Gardens” (Venice 2022), about a rubbish picker who unexpectedly finds a sex doll in the trash, and Kurdish “The Rain Bride” (which swept the Kurdish Duhok Film Awards), about a wife who becomes a dancer when her husband goes off to war. “Hanging Gardens” has better reviews and the Venice pedigree….and they chose a Kurdish film last year. So that’s my pick. Dark horse: 3-hour documentary “Tales of the Purple House”.

12. Israel- “Delegation” "Seven Blessings" Israel automatically sends the winner of the Best Picture award at the Ophir Awards. So, before the Ophir nominations were announced, I predicted the five nominees would be "The Altman Method", "Delegation", "Matchmaking", "The Monkey House" and "Vanishing Soldier", with "The Other Widow" as my alternate. I only got one right, plus my alternate. I'd like to think the main reason for that is that almost all the Israeli finalists were films that hadn't yet been screened. The five finalists including "Vanishing Soldier" (11 nominations), about a soldier who goes AWOL but who is reported in the national media as a missing POW; it premiered at Locarno, and "The Other Widow" (9 nominations), a dark comedy about a mistress who goes to her lover's funeral....plus three unscreened movies- "Home" (9 nominations), a drama set in Israel's ultra-Orthodox community, "Running on Sand" (4 nominations), about an Eritrean refugee on an Israeli football team, and "Seven Blessings" (12 nominations), a comedy-drama about family secrets amongst a large Moroccan-Jewish family. Still pretty surprised at the absence of "Delegation"! So, what film will represent Israel? "Running on Sand" was a nominee out of left field and didn't get any other major nominations, while "Other Widow" missed the all-important Best Screenplay nomination- 8 out of the past 10 Ophir winners got nominations for Picture, Director and Screenplay. Nominated in almost every category, "Seven Blessings" appears to be the frontrunner...and it's also the nominee I most want to see. I have "Vanishing Soldier", which got positive reviews this month at Locarno, in second place and the complete unknown- "Home"- in third and "Other Widow" (which also looks charming) in fourth. 

13. Jordan- “Inshallah A Boy” Jordan has started to submit more regularly and last year they had a brutally competitive race. But this year should be an easy choice. I’m certain they’ll send “Inshallah A Boy”, about a Jordanian widow who fakes a pregnancy to ensure she maintains control of her house and family. It won two minor awards in Cannes and has very good reviews.

14. Kenya- “Between the Rains” Kenya has a competitive two-way race between climate change documentary “Between the Rains”, which won Best Documentary at the 2023 Tribeca Film Festival, and “Shimoni”, which premiered in Toronto and represented the country at FESPACO. Documentaries are usually at a disadvantage but Kenya has picked one once before and “Rains” looks like it has slightly better reviews. So that’s my pick. Dark horses: upcoming thrillers “Zahma” and “Gaza”.

15. Kuwait- “How I Got There” Although they submitted two films in the 1970s, oil-rich Kuwait has been absent since 1978- longer than any other country. This year, they have a really fun possibility, namely “How I Got There”, a fast-paced action-crime-comedy-drama that has been compared to Guy Ritchie. It won the Audience Award at the Red Sea Film Festival in neighboring Saudi Arabia and co-stars Ron Perlman (!).

16. Lebanon-  “Dirty, Difficult, Dangerous” “Dirty, Difficult, Dangerous”, a love story between two foreign migrants in Beirut (a Syrian man and Ethiopian woman) has been charming audiences since it premiered at Venice 2022, and it’s the best-reviewed Lebanese film of the year. The runner-up- and very possible- is French co-production “Mother Valley”, about a conservative Lebanese wife and mother who discovers feminism. If they want a film telling a more authentically Lebanese story, they could choose gritty thriller “Hardabasht”, drama “The Anger” or comedy “All Roads Lead to Rome”.  

17. Lesotho- Nothing. Tiny Lesotho submitted a film by Berlin-based filmmaker Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese in 2020. Lesotho doesn’t really have a local film industry and they’ll likely wait until Mosese makes a new film before they consider submitting again.

18. Malawi- “Is the President Dead?” Malawi unexpectedly submitted two low-profile films in 2018 and again in 2021. This year, the only film that I know about is light political thriller “Is the President Dead?”….but it would appear to be ineligible because it’s in English.

19. Mauritania- “The Perfumed Hill” Mauritania deserved an Oscar when they submitted for the first and only time with “Timbuktu” in 2014….They made the Final Five before losing to the highly overrated “Ida”.  Director Abderrahmane Sissako is Mauritania’s only international director and he is expected to premiere the long-delayed “The Perfumed Hill”, set mostly in China and currently in post-production, before the end of the year. If it premieres in time, that will likely be Mauritania’s second-ever submission.

20. Morocco- “Hounds” (Les meutes) Hot off making the shortlist for the second time last year, Morocco has quite a few possibilities, including two films from Venice 2022 and three from Cannes 2023. My prediction is “Hounds”, a fast-paced thriller about a father-son duo trying to dispose of a dead body….It won the Cannes UCR Jury Prize and that’s a major accomplishment for a genre film and for Morocco. The Moroccan Academy likes crime dramas, and reviews have mostly been good. Two similarly themed road movies about low-level criminals- “Queens” (Venice; two women) and “Deserts” (Cannes; two men)- are also possible though I think “Hounds” has better reviews. “Deserts” is directed by Faouzi Bensaidi, who represented Morocco once before (and who has a second eligible film this year; comedy-drama “Days of Summer”). Morocco's two shortlisted films in the past were largely French so we can’t count out French co-production “A Summer in Boujad”, a coming-of-age drama about a 13-year old who moves from Paris to Morocco after the death of his mother. Some may predict documentary “Mother of All Lies” (Best Director, Cannes UCR) and “The Damned Don’t Cry” (Venice) but I think the former is too subversive and the second too queer (conservative Morocco isn’t going to pick Queer movies two years in a row).

21. Mozambique- “O Ancoradouro do Tempo” Mozambique submitted a film once in 2017- and quite a good one too…..After being absent five years in a row, they’d have to request AMPAS to re-approve a selection committee and I doubt they’ll do that. If they do submit, it will probably be the upcoming “O Ancoradouro do Tempo” (The Anchor of Time), a romance-cum-mystery based on the novel “Under the Frangipani”, about a murder at a Portuguese fort in which various suspects all confess to having committed the crime.

22. Niger- “La fille noire du president” Niger submitted a film once in 2018 and they actually have two new films out this year. If they enter, it will surely be “La fille noire du president”, a light drama about an African president whose daughter is the black sheep of the family. It’s directed by one of Niger’s senior national directors, who is now in his 80s. Niger, whose democratic government was overthrown by a coup last month, also has short film “The Envoy of God”, which won a number of prizes at FESPACO, but it’s too short (23 minutes) to compete here.

23. Nigeria- “Mami Wata” Although many of Nigeria’s films are made in English, Nigeria announced an Oscar shortlist of three very interesting films in Yoruba last year. Two of them (“Anikulapo” and “Elesin Oba”) got Netflix distribution deals. One (“Elesin Oba”) premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Nigeria’s selection committee met and decided to send none of them to the Oscars. The Nigerian film industry (quite rightfully) complained. The committee met again and decided to say "fuck you" to their filmmaker colleagues and once again voted to send nothing to the Oscars. So, the committee clearly doesn’t care about supporting Nigerian film; they’ve only sent two films since they were recognized by AMPAS in 2014 (and one of those two was disqualified). If Nigeria does enter, I suspect it will be “Mami Wata”, a B&W drama in Pidgin English and Fon, that screened at Sundance and FESPACO, winning Best Cinematography at both festivals. It’s a mythological drama about three women and a village that worships a mermaid goddess. Of course it probably should be Teddy-award winning “All the Colours of the World are Between Black & White” but homophobic Nigeria would never select an LGBT-themed film.

24. Palestine- “Alam” I imagine most people will be predicting “A Gaza Weekend”, the breezy Palestinian pandemic comedy that marks the feature debut of Oscar-nominated Short Film director Basil Khalil and which won the FIPRESCI Award at Toronto. Unfortunately, the multi-lingual comedy looks like it’s mostly in English, which will open the door wide open for “Alam”, winner of Cairo 2022, a coming-of-age drama about the identity crises of a Palestinian teen who holds Israeli citizenship.

25. Saudi Arabia- “Within Sand” Winner of the Jury Prize at the country’s Red Sea Film Festival, “Within Sand” is a survival drama set in the early 20^th century about a young man abandoned in the desert and left to die by a gang of thieves. However, we can’t entirely count out upcoming camel racing drama “Hajjan” (see Egypt) by the Egyptian director of “Yomeddine”. Also possible: Netflix films “Alkhallat+” and "Head to Head" (their past two submissions got Netflix deals) and “Norah”, about a village woman on an unexpected journey.

26. Senegal- “Banel & Adama” Senegal has become the first country in West Africa to submit on a fairly regular basis; they’ve sent films four out of six years since their 2017 debut, making the shortlist twice. The fact that “Banel & Adama”, about two young lovers whose village disapproves of their relationship, premiered in the Main Competition at Cannes 2023 means that it’s a shoo-in to represent Senegal, although “A Tooth for a Tooth” (FESPACO) would have had a good shot in any other year.

27. Somalia- “Ayaanle” Somalia submitted the delightful “Gravedigger’s Wife” in 2021. IMDB claims a sequel is in pre-production but that certainly won’t be ready in time. I’m pretty sure Somalia will sit this year out, but they could send “Ayaanle”, a Kenya co-production though I suspect it was released too early to qualify.

28. South Africa- “Valley of a Thousand Hills” South Africa quietly skipped last year, seemingly because they didn’t have any strong contenders that weren't in English. South African cinema is increasingly dominated by English-language films, as the industry seeks co-productions and Netflix deals, and as English overtakes Afrikaans more and more to become the country’s language of inter-ethnic communication. This year, all of the South African entries at Durban (their main domestic festival) were primarily in English. Still, I think that “Valley of a Thousand Hills”, a queer Zulu-language drama about a woman coming out as a lesbian despite her conservative family upbringing, will rep South Africa this year. There’s also Afrikaans-language melodrama “People of the Wind” and documentary "!Aitsa". Many are predicting Milisuthando (Sundance), but I think that’s mostly in English…

29. Sudan- “Goodbye Julia” Sudan submitted a film once in 2020 during a rare period of national openness, but that period ended in Fall 2021 with a violent coup d’etat, and the country is now engaged in a vicious civil war. That’s a shame because if their committee is able to meet, they could send critically acclaimed Cannes UCR drama “Goodbye Julia” about two women from opposing sides of the previous civil war (between Sudan and South Sudan) who become employer and employee and subsequently friends following an incident that kills the poorer woman’s husband. The writer-director, Mohammed Kordofani, is an aircraft engineer who began making films during Sudan’s brief democratic opening. Also possible: “The Dam” premiered at Cannes 2022 but only got a cinematic release in Europe in 2023.

30. Syria- “Nezouh” An opposition-backed selection committee sent a documentary to the Oscars in 2017 but hasn’t sent anything since. Last year, I predicted they could return with “Nezouh”, about a couple making the difficult decision whether to stay in their war-damaged home or flee and live as refugees. It won an Audience Award at Venice 2022 and played in European cinemas starting in 2023. I would love to see this one on the list. 

31. Tanzania- “Wandongwa” Tanzania rejoined the Oscar race last year after a 20-year absence. They have four new films premiering at their main festival, the Zanzibar International Film Festival (ZIFF),  and of these the most promising looks to be “Wandongwa”, a Swahili-language film about a traditional village.

32. Tunisia- “Four Daughters” Kaouther Ben Hania got Tunisia’s surprise first Oscar nomination for “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (it’s great, though I preferred her brilliant “Beauty and the Dogs”). Ben Hania competed in Cannes this year with documentary “Four Daughters” about a woman with two (idiotic) daughters who join ISIS, and who are cinematically replaced with professional actresses. It would be foolish to bet against her, but the movie I predicted last year- “Harka” (Cannes 2022)- finally got released in Tunisian cinemas in January 2023, and Ridha Behi (“Satin Rouge”) has a new movie starring grande dame Claudia Cardinale. But I still think “Daughters” will get this.

33. Turkey- "About Dry Grasses" Nuri Bilge Ceylan has made six films since 2002 and five of these were sent to the Oscars (somehow Palme d'Or nominee "Climates" lost to obscure local comedy "Ice Cream, I Scream!"). Ceylan's films are overlong and boring but critics eat them up....and "About Dry Grasses" was nominated for the Palme d'Or and won Best Actress at Cannes....So, I'm pretty sure Turkey will pick it....I'm also pretty sure that I won't watch it. I'd much prefer they picked "Burning Days" (Best Turkish Film, Ankara) but the political (and queer) overtones will make Turkey uncomfortable. The winners of Best Turkish Film at Turkey's other three major festivals this year are crime drama "Black Night" (Antalya), rural mystery "Snow and the Bear", and majority German production "In the Blind Spot" (Istanbul). "Black Night" would be a strong competitor in a weaker year, but Ceylan's 195-minute film about a rural teacher trying to get a transfer to the city is probably going to be picked without anyone even paying attention to the other films.

34. Uganda- “The Passenger” Uganda entered the Oscar race for the first time last year and they probably have the easiest decision in Africa. Thriller “The Passenger”, in Pidgin English, dominated the local film awards for its story of a man with a mysterious package and the bus passenger who suspects him of being a dangerous terrorist.

35. Yemen- “The Burdened” War-torn Yemen has has sent two excellent films to the Oscars, including Amr Gamal’s “10 Days Before the Wedding”, one of the best films I saw from the 2018 competition. Director Gamal has a critically acclaimed new film this year- “The Burdened”- that premiered in Berlin and I’m really hoping this controversial abortion drama will be Yemen’s third-ever submission.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Countries That Have Formed Oscar Selection Committees:

The most likely debut from the region is Namibia which formed an Oscar selection committee in 2021 but hasn’t sent a film yet. We should see them sending “Under the Hanging Tree” (Rotterdam), a “supernatural noir” about a female detective investigating a suspicious death in the Kalahari desert. Zambia promised to send a movie for the first last year….but didn’t. This year, they have a historical epic called “Luthando” but it’s in English so I don’t seen them participating. The United Arab Emirates and Rwanda also once formed selection committee but never sent films…. I think both committees have “expired” after not sending films five years in a row, but I could potentially see “Dalma”, about a woman who disrupts life in a small Emirati island community or “The Bride” (Berlin), a harrowing story of a Rwandan rape victim forced to marry her attacker, coaxing them to make their debut.

Countries That Would Need to Form Oscar Selection Committees:

It’s been a good year for Portuguese-speaking Africa. Angola has gotten a lot of festival play for “Our Lady of the China Shop” but they also have “Tommy Guns”, a much bigger movie, although it was made by a white Angola-born filmmaker based in Portugal. Both would be a fitting debut for the southern African country especially since “Tommy Guns” failed to make the Portugal shortlist. Tiny Guinea-Bissau had a strong cinematic tradition in the 70s and 80s and now has “Nome”, a new docu-drama about the country’s war of independence.

From French-speaking Africa….we have “Gazing at Stars”, which represented Mauritius at FESPACO, about two strangers who may start a romance. “Pantheon of Joy” from Benin looks like a fascinating mix of local music and culture, alongside the baity story of a fatherless boy. If we’re talking documentaries, Guinea had a film at Berlin 2023- “Cemetery of Cinema”, about the country’s cinematic history. And the Central African Republic, which unsuccessfully tried to submit a film (“Oka!”, starring Kris Marshall) in 2011 could consider documentary “Eat Bitter” (CPH: Dox) or “We, Students” (FESPACO) this year.