FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS- Western Europe

Here are my predictions for the 21 nations of Western Europe. Though they traditionally dominate the Oscars, last year they only secured two spots on the shortlist (for overrated Oscar nominee "The Square" and underrated Golden Globe winner "In the Fade") so their dominance has slippel;d.

1.   AUSTRIA- “The Murer Case” With three nominations (two wins) in eleven years, Austria usually has quite a few options to choose from. This year, I see five major contenders: (1)- “Angelo” (San Sebastian/Toronto), about an 18^th century West African slave brought to Europe and educated to be an elite servant, (2)- "Joy" (Venice Days), about a West African woman brought to Austria and forced into prostitution, (3)- “Mademoiselle Paradis”, an 18^th century period drama about a young blind, piano prodigy, and the doctor trying to heal her sight, (4)- “The Magician” (Zauberer), a thriller telling a number of interlocking stories, and (5)- “The Murer Case”, a courtroom drama about an Austrian SS officer who killed thousands of Lithuanian Jews during WWII but did not go on trial until the 1960s. A sixth contender- “Styx”- is a mostly wordless film, but the spoken dialogue is mostly in English so I think it would be disqualified if selected. It’s a very even race; I give the edge to “The Murer Case” due to AMPAS’ affection for Holocaust dramas, but the sumptuous costumes and period pieces of “Mademoiselle Paradis” make that film a very strong contender. “Joy” and “Angelo” don’t have domestic release dates yet, so they may contend for next year.

2.   BELGIUM- “Insyriated” Last year, I was somewhat surprised that Belgium did not select acclaimed Arabic-language drama “Insyriated” (Audience Award, Berlin Panorama 2017). This year, most Oscar watchers are expecting that Belgium will send “Girl”, easily the most acclaimed local film of 2018. However, if you pay attention to the release dates, “Insyriated” debuted in Belgian cinemas on October 11, 2017 and “Girl” (Cannes) isn’t set to premiere until October 17^th, 2018. So, for now, “Insyriated” is eligible and “Girl” isn’t, though Belgium could easily do an early qualifying release if they wanted to (they did it last year for “Racer and the Jailbird”).  I think “Insyriated”, the story of a Syrian family trapped in their home when their neighborhood comes under attack, will ultimately represent Belgium and “Girl”, about a trans girl going through adolescence, will contend for next year. As you may know, Belgium has two independent film industries catering to its French-speaking (Walloon) and Dutch-speaking (Flemish) populations. “Insyriated” dominated the 2018 Maigritte Awards  in the French sector. The nominations for the Flemish Ensor Awards were announced this week and the winners will be announced on September 15^th. Ironically, the frontrunner from the Flemish side is another Middle Eastern drama- “Zagros”, the story of a Kurdish family that emigrates to Belgium, where the wife adjusts easily to her newfound freedoms while her husband fails to assimilate. Rounding out this year's Top Five are some more movies showcasing Belgian multiculturalism: “The Faithful Son” (La part sauvage; in French), about a Belgian convert to Islam, "Bitter Flowers” (in Chinese), about a Chinese woman who emigrates to Paris, and murder mystery-thriller “Control” (in Dutch), directed by Jan Verheyen.

3.   DENMARK- “The Guilty” Denmark typically announces a three-film Oscar shortlist, which is likely to consist of Oscar winner Bille August’s upcoming “A Fortunate Man”, critical darling thriller “The Guilty”, and family drama “Winter Brothers” which won both Best Picture awards at Denmark’s two national film awards this year. We could also see “The Charmer” (about an Iranian gigolo) or “While We Live” (after the aftermath of a tragic accident) sneak into the final three, but the Danish nominee is almost certainly going to be one of the above three films.  I’m going to predict “The Guilty” (the only film on this list of predictions that I’ve actually seen) which has by far the strongest buzz. It’s the story of a police detective on 911 call duty who gets a phone call from a woman who says she has been kidnapped by her abusive husband. He has to figure out how to save the woman, and locate her children who have been left at home. It’s a great mystery and an even better thriller, and it easily has the credentials both to appeal to discerning film critics and to a mainstream American audience. Bille August won an Oscar for “Pelle the Conqueror” but nobody has yet seen the nearly three-hour “A Fortunate Man”, about a successful man trying to avoid making the same mistakes with his own family that his conservative, religious family made when raising him. It’s likely to make the list, but August’s best days seem to be behind him. As for Icelandic co-production “Winter Brothers”, despite great reviews it’s at a disadvantage having been released so early. I think “The Guilty” will beat “A Fortunate Man”, while “Winter Brothers” will be relegated to third.

4.   FINLAND- “Laugh or Die” Looking over my blog, I’ve only predicted Finland correctly once in ten tries (“Letters to Father Jacob”, way back in 2009). So statistically speaking, my prediction- “Laugh or Die”- is a long shot. With shades of both “Life is Beautiful” and “Land of Mine”, “Laugh or Die” is a jet-black comedy-drama about a troupe of Finnish actors condemned to death during the Finnish Civil War. The men are given one last chance, and are promised that they will be allowed to live if they can make a visiting German commander laugh. Finland’s Oscar committee does sometimes go “historical”, though they rarely select big war movies. With no frontrunner, I think “Laugh or Die” will get this. If they want to go for a more contemporary film, they could select Aleksi Salmenperä a third time for his B&W dramedy “Void”, which will premiere at the end of September. It’s the story of a writer married to an actress and their obsession with furthering their own careers at the expense of their marriage. Finland has chosen B&W movies two of the past four years. In third place: 3-hour war epic “The Unknown Solider” by Aku Louhimies, who directed my favorite Finnish film (“Frozen Land”) and who I’ve incorrectly predicted twice. In fourth place: documentary “Wheels of Freedom”. In fifth: heavy metal comedy “Heavy Trip”.

5.   FRANCE- "Custody" France is nominated so frequently that it's easy to forget that they've only won once in the past 40 years (for "Indochine" in 1992/93). To put that into context, out of all the countries that have won the Oscar, almost all of them have managed a win since the victory of "Indochine" (all except Algeria, Sweden and Switzerland). "Custody" almost seems too obvious. It's been to dozens of festivals since it debuted at Venice 2017, winning the Silver Lion. It's gotten excellent reviews from critics and audiences. It's very much a thriller disguised as a family drama. Most importantly, as we learned from Iran's "A Separation", it's a subject that American audiences can easily relate to. I actually was pretty sure that France would select one of two glossy period dramas set to debut in September, namely "Mademoiselle de Joncquières" (Toronto) and "One Nation, One King" (Venice). The trailer for the expensive, all-star drama of "One Nation, One King" looks beautiful, but I worry that the French history lesson will be perceived as being over the heads of American audiences. France wants to win. As for "Mlle. de Joncquières", the plotline sounds like a totally luscious, vengeful "Dangerous Liaisons", but the trailer looked a bit too light to compete for France. However, both of us will definitely have a chance if they win awards in Venice/Toronto. Obviously, France has a dozen films that could proudly fly the French colors. Three others to look out for: crime drama (1)- "See You Up There", set in the 1920s, won five Cesar Awards including Best Director, (2)- "C'est la vie" is a crowdpleasing comedy about a chaotic wedding from the team that brought you "Les intouchables". Critics haven't loved it but audiences have, and it managed a Best Pic nomination at the Cesars (People often forget that "Les intouchables" made the Final Nine) and (3)- "To the Ends of the World", about French soldiers fighting the unwinnable war in Indochina. Others titles mentioned as possibilities: "Climax", "La douleur", "Freres ennemis", "Promise at Dawn", "La villa" and "Sorry Angel", though I don't think they'll get very far. 

6.  GERMANY- "Never Look Away" Germany announced this week that they would be considering eleven films. As with many countries, this is primarily a race between an acclaimed film that has already been released (“The Captain”) and a hotly anticipated film set to debut soon (“Never Look Away”). It would be foolish to bet against “Never Look Away”, the first German-language film from director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck since he won an Oscar for “The Lives of Others”. It will debut in Venice and screen in Toronto and will apparently arrange a qualifying release (as did “In the Fade” last year) before it debuts in German cinemas on October 3. Focusing on an artist whose work is influenced by the traumas of living under both the Nazi and East German Communist regimes, it co-stars Sebastian Koch (“Lives of Others”, “Bridge of Spies”) and checks a lot of boxes. The only negative? von Donnersmarck’s last film (“The Tourist”, with Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie) was a big critical flop and he still has to prove he’s not a one-hit wonder. “The Captain” is the true story about a 19-year Nazi deserter who became involved in a series of atrocities in the final days of WWII, after putting on an abandoned Nazi uniform to stay warm. It’s cerebral, it’s gotten a small US release, and Germany may wish to choose it symbolically to showcase their displeasure with far-right movements in both the US and Europe. There are three other films on the list to keep your eye on: (1)- “Ballon” (co-starring David Cross of “The Reader”) is an upcoming thriller set in 1979 about an East German family trying to escape to West Berlin, (2)- “In the Aisles” (Berlin 2018) is a quirky romantic drama set in a superstore and (3)- “Transit” (Berlin 2018), directed by Christian Petzold, is about a man who flees Nazi Germany to France, assuming a dead man’s identity. There seem to be lots of people fleeing Nazis and Communists this year. As for the others, they’re either too unusual (Persian-language animated film “Teheran Taboo” and docudrama “The Invisibles”), too German, i.e. inaccessible to American audiences (Lola winner “3 Days in Quiberon” and “The Silent Revolution”) or reviews haven’t been strong enough (“My Brother Simple” and “Mackie Messer”). My Top Five: “Never Look Away”, “The Captain”, “Ballon”, “Transit” and “In the Aisles”.

7.   GREECE- “The Last Note” Traditionally, the Greeks select either the winner of the Greek competition  at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (this year was B&W indie comedy “Too Much Info Clouding Over My Head”) or the winner of the national film awards (this year was “Son of Sofia”). However, I think these two abstract films will be overshadowed by historical drama “The Last Note”, about the Nazi execution of 200 Greek resistance fighters, or “Pity”, a black comedy written by the man who brought us “Dogtooth” and “Chevalier”. Factor in the two films that lost to “Sofia” at the National Film Awards in the Picture, Director and Screenplay categories- inheritance drama “Polyxeni” and geriatric comedy “Women Who Passed My Way”, and you have a potential six-way race. Pantelis Voulgaris’ “The Last Note” is the most likely to appeal to Oscar voters (he was rumored to have come close to a nomination with his previous film, “Little England”) and it was the #2 Greek of 2017, so that's my final prediction. I think “Pity” will come second, “Sofia” third, and “Women Who Passed My Way”, made by an 82-year old director who last represented Greece nearly thirty years ago, in fourth.

8.  GREENLAND- “The Raven and the Seagull” Massive Greenland has a tiny population (56,000) so they rarely have an eligible film to send. This year, they could return for the first time since 2012 with documentary “The Raven and the Seagull” (Lykkelænder) about the ordinary lives of Greenlandic Inuits living on the Danish territory’s remote West coast.

9.   ICELAND- “Woman at War” Despite a population of just 350,000, Iceland has about ten eligible releases. The odds-on favorite is Cannes comedy-drama “Woman at War”, which Variety called “near-perfect”. It’s an unusual film with elements of comedy, musical and drama and it’s easily the best reviewed Icelandic film of the year. Director Benedikt Erlingsson has been chosen once before for "Of Horses and Men". “Woman” faces competition from refugee drama “And Breathe Normally” (Best Director, Sundance), about the friendship between an Icelandic woman and an asylum seeker from Guinea-Bissau. Given the visibility of the global refugee crisis and last year's shock pick of the late release "Under the Tree" over favorite "Heartstone", it's definitely got a chance.  In third: “Let Me Fall”, about two young women who re-connect 15 years after a drug-fueled adolescent friendship.

10.  IRELAND- “Penance” English-speaking Ireland submits a film whenever they have something eligible, and they’ve managed to send a film three of the past four years. This year, there’s little doubt it will be Tom Collins’ “Penance”, a historical thriller about a nationalist young priest who encourages his parishioners to violently rise against the English in 1916, causing an unforeseen tragedy. 50 years later, the priest is reunited with the boy at the center of the tragedy. Tom Collins has been selected twice before for Irish-language films and this has a bigger budget and more important subject matter than “Kings” or “The Gift”. A very safe bet.

11.   ITALY- “Happy as Lazzaro” Italy has won more Foreign Film Oscars than any other country so they always have a very competitive race. Most people see this as a battle between two films that won awards at Cannes, namely Mafia drama “Dogman” (Best Actor) and quirky  “Forrest Gump”-esque “Happy as Lazzaro” (Best Screenplay). Matteo Garrone has been selected before for “Gomorrah” (which I hated) while Alice Rohrwacher has come close twice. “Dogman”, a gritty realist drama about a mild-mannered man who becomes involved with the Italian mafia, has been critically divisive. Nobody dislikes “Lazzaro”, but this drama about a peasant and a nobleman is weird and a bit risky. Italy has made a fairly surprising choice three years in a row, and they usually announce a long “shortlist”, so they’ll be looking beyond these two films. Other options include “The Armadillo Prophecy”, based on a graphic novel about two slacker guys which will debut in Venice and premiere right before the deadline, “Daughter of Mine” (Berlin), about a daughter torn between her adopted and biological mothers, Paolo Sorrentino’s “Loro”, a biopic of Italy’s flamboyant politician Silvio Berlusconi that was released in two installments, two weeks apart, “Love and Bullets”, an ultra-Neapolitan “Mafia musical” that won Best Picture at the Donatello Awards, and “The Place”, a multi-character drama and crowdpleaser that was one of the biggest local hits of 2017. Crime drama “On My Skin” looks like total Oscar bait and landed a plum slot in Venice but the film’s partnership with Netflix and its controversial online VOD release has upset a lot of people in the Italian film industry, so I think that’s out. My Top Five: “Lazzaro”, “Dogman”, “Loro”, “The Place” and “Daughter of Mine”. Next year, keep an eye out for “Capri-Revolution” set to debut in Venice and premiere in Italy in December.

12.  LUXEMBOURG- “Gutland” Luxembourg just announced the seven eligible finalists for their Luxembourg Film Prize, which is given out every two years and which will be awarded on September 22. Films must be majority Luxembourg productions. Two were released too early, two are in English and two are cartoons. That makes quirky “Gutland” (Toronto 2017) the obvious frontrunner. Starring Vicky Krieps (the breakout star of last year’s “The Phantom Thread”), this is a “Twin Peaks”-esque drama about a German thief who tries to hide out in a strange little Luxembourgian town. Luxembourg has chosen documentaries and animated films to represent them before. So, you can’t entirely count out the animated “White Fang” (based on the Jack London novel) which was made in both French and English versions (the English version features the voices of Paul Giamatti, Rashida Jones and Nick Offerman) or “Sixty8”, by Andy Bausch (possibly Luxembourg’s most popular local director), a documentary about the Grand Duchy in the counterculture 1960s.

13.   MALTA- “Fate” Tiny Malta has only submitted a film once but they have a number of Maltese-language films in the can scheduled to premiere over the course of the next year. I was hoping to predict quirky comedy “Limestone Cowboy”, about an eccentric old man obsessed with America, who decides to run for town mayor. Unfortunately, it looks like it never got a domestic release. So, I’m predicting “Fate” (Id-Destin), a new crime drama.

14.  THE NETHERLANDS- “Rafael” The Netherlands was the first European country to announce a shortlist, naming nine potential contenders. With the Dutch absent from nearly every major film festival this year, it was a list of films and directors that were relatively unknown outside of Holland. Three of these films can be eliminated right off the bat- three-hour medieval action movie “Redbad” has gotten terrible reviews at home, “Life is Wonderful” looks like an entertaining but silly rom-com and “Thirst”, a comedy-drama about a girl and her terminally ill mother, has no buzz and is a clear non-starter. Two others- gritty adolescent drama “Cobain” (Berlinale 14+) and Spanish-language road movie “Messi and Maud” (aka “La Holandesa”)- would also make surprising choices. The two frontrunners on the list are box-office hit historical drama “The Resistance Banker” and Ben Sombogaart’s upcoming “Rafael”. The Netherlands has always done best in this category when they choose historical dramas but the Dutch Academy insists on sending in modernist films, often showcasing social issues. That bodes well for “Rafael”, a drama by Ben Sombogaart (who directed the last Dutch Oscar nominee- “Twin Sisters”- more than a decade ago) about a Tunisian man imprisoned in a refugee camp while trying to get home to his pregnant Dutch wife. It’s doing an early release to get selected for the Oscars, which bodes well for its chances. “The Resistance Banker”, a true story about how two brothers helped bankroll the Dutch resistance during the Nazi occupation- might be a better choice, but it’s probably going to come second. The other two Dutch films on the shortlist- Middle Eastern drama “Brothers” and upcoming thriller “Catacombe”- are dark horses but they are unlikely to beat these Top Two.

15.  NORWAY- “The 12^th Man” Since 2011, the Kingdom of Norway has announced a three-film shortlist. This year, Erik Poppe’s “U-July 22” and Iram Haq’s “What Will People Say” are almost guaranteed to take two of those spots. Both directors have been selected before and they faced off at last weekend’s Amanda Awards in the Best Picture, Director and Screenplay categories. “What Will People Say” won all three (it also beat the favorite- last year’s Oscar submission “Thelma”). I think the final shortlist spot will go to “The 12^th Man”, creating an exciting three-way race. “What Will People Say” may have dominated the Amanda Awards, but this small drama about a Norwegian teenager forced to move to Pakistan by her immigrant parents is the least likely to appeal to American audiences. They’ll clearly prefer big-budget WWII resistance drama “The 12^th Man”, about a Norwegian saboteur on the run from the Nazis. It co-stars Jonathan Rhys-Meyers but the trailer appears to be mostly in Norwegian and German. Erik Poppe’s “U-July 22” is a dramatization of Norway’s worst terrorist attack, by far-right terrorist Anders  Breivik in 2011. Told from the point of view of one student looking for her sister amidst the carnage, this will resonate with American audiences horrified by the recent spate of school shootings. It would be a divisive choice, and will likely place third, but all three of these films are incredibly close. Disaster movie “The Quake”, family drama “Blood Brothers” and eclectic music documentary “The Monkey and the Mouth” could theoretically “upset” one of those three to get onto the shortlist, but they wouldn’t have any chance at being selected.  

16.   PORTUGAL- “Soldier Millions” Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions without a nomination (34) and is the only regularly submitting Western European country never to have made the Oscar shortlist. That looks unlikely to change this year. I originally thought Portugal would select one of two big historical dramas. Alas, splashy royal drama “Pedro & Ines” won’t premiere until October and the exotic 16^th century “Pilgrimage”, about a Portuguese explorer travelling in the Far East has gotten fairly negative reviews. So, I predict Portugal will send WWI drama “Soldado Milhoes” (Soldier Millions), about a decorated war hero who fought off German troops to protect a squadron of Portuguese and British soldiers. That seems somewhat more likely than “Al Berto”, an LGBT-themed historical drama about a gay writer whose freedoms remain curtailed evenb after Portugal’s 1975 democratic revolution. It’s the only Best Picture nominee from Portugal’s Sophia Awards that is eligible this year. Also possible: Teresa Villaverde’s Berlinale drama “Colo”, about the country’s economic crisis, “Ruth”, a crowdpleasing football drama, popular action comedy “Bad Investigate” and talky crime drama “Leviano”, featuring a series of interviews shedding light on a complex murder plot. They could also choose a documentary like “In the Interstices of Reality” (Best Doc at the Sophia Awards) or “Saudade’s Labyrinth”, a documentary about the Portuguese psyche by the director of “Jose and Pilar”. Oscar watchers will remember that "Jose" was selected over potential nominee “Mysteries of Lisbon” a few years ago. My predictions for the Top Five: “Soldier Millions”, “Colo”, “Al Berto”, “Pilgrimage” and “Ruth”.

17.   SPAIN- “Todos lo saben” (Everybody Knows) Spain announced its three-film shortlist on August 14^th, making this much easier for me. Spain is going through its worst-ever Oscar drought- 7 years without making the semifinals, and 14 years without getting an actual Oscar nomination. That means they are going to be less willing to take risks. This bodes well for two-time Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi, whose “Everybody Knows” starring Penelope Cruz, Javier Bardem and Ricardo Darin, is the safest bet and the acknowledged frontrunner. Though some are saying that this melodrama about secrets being revealed at a family reunion isn’t Farhadi’s best, that didn’t stop “The Salesman” from winning an Oscar two years ago. Will the Spanish Academy choose a foreign director? That’s the only question mark, leaving the door open a crack for Basque-language drama “The Giant” and heartwarming comedy “Champions”. “Champions”, about a coach sentenced to do community service with a group of mentally challenged athletes, has arguably gotten better reviews than “Everybody Knows”, but Oscar rarely picks comedies. And Spain knows that. “The Giant” was the most awarded Spanish movie of 2017, but Western critics weren't as kind as Spanish ones. Many criticized the screenplay and said it’s very old-fashioned. Spain wants to win this, so Farhadi is the one. 

18.   SWEDEN- “Becoming Astrid” Sweden has made it to the shortlist five of the past ten years and has been nominated two years in a row. They only have a few contenders this year, and the two most likely options are weird Un Certain Regard winner “Border” and a more traditional biopic, “Becoming Astrid”. Lately, Sweden has tended to go more arthouse- in the past ten years, they’ve picked two old-fashioned dramas, three films that are more or less mainstream, and five somewhat pretentious arthouse flicks. I wouldn’t describe “Border” as pretentious like Roy Andersson or Ruben Östlund, but it’s a weird supernatural thriller about two Swedes with caveman-like features and an extraordinary sense of smell. It’s certainly original and the Cannes win is a big one. It's also the only Swedish-language film on the longlist for the European Film Awards. However, “Becoming Astrid” is less divisive, has overall stronger reviews and is definitely  more likely to appeal to Hollywood voters. It’s a biopic of Pippi Longstocking author Astrid Lindgren and Variety just called it a “gorgeous piece of heritage filmmaking”. Three other Swedish films could be selected- “Amateurs”, a comedy about multiculturalism in Sweden directed by a previously submitted director, “Jimmie”, a weird alternate reality drama that imagines Swedish refugees fleeing a domestic conflict, and “Ravens”, a family drama about a hardscrabble farmer family in the 1970s. Of these, the comedic “Amateurs” is most likely to break through. I predict “Astrid” reps Sweden with “Border” an incredibly close second.

19.   SWITZERLAND- “Eldorado” Switzerland became the first Western European nation to announce their Oscar pick on August 3^rd. Unlike Turkey (see below), there's no way I would have predicted Switzerland correctly. The Swiss chose “Eldorado”, a documentary about the European migrant crisis contrasting current batch of African and Middle Eastern asylum seekers with director Markus Imhoff’s own memories of European refugees coming to neutral Switzerland during WWII. The Swiss Academy seems unusually attached to documentaries, as they’ve now selected four documentaries (plus one animated film) in the past six years.  I probably would have predicted “With the Wind” (Le vent tourne) about a peasant couple living in an isolated community whose relationship is disturbed by an unexpected visitor.  I also might have considered “Blue My Mind”, about a girl’s unusual journey through puberty, which won Best Picture at the Swiss Film Awards, or maybe LGBT football love story “Mario” which lost Best Picture but got stronger overall reviews.

20.  TURKEY- “The Wild Pear Tree” So, Turkey jumped the gun and announced “The Wild Pear Tree” before I had a chance to make my prediction, but this was an easy one to guess. This is Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s fifth time representing Turkey (more than any other director) and he’s the only Turkish director ever to get Turkey to the Final Nine. “Wild Pear Tree” was nominated for the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and has gotten very good reviews. Although I have no desire to see this three-hour film about a prodigal son writer who returns to his home village, there was little doubt in my mind it would be selected. That was bad news for likely runner-ups “Butterflies” (Sundance), “Debt” (Winner of Best Turkish Film at the Golden Tulips) and “Yol Ayrimi” (the latest from semi-retired director Yavuz Turgul). Some expected Semih Kaplanoğu's "Grain", but that film is in English. 

21.   UNITED KINGDOM- “I Am Not A Witch” After a six-year absence, the UK returned to the Oscar competition in 2008 and has submitted films eight of the past ten years, representing a panoply of cultures ranging from Africa (2008) to the Middle East (2014 + 2016), from East Asia (2013) to the Subcontinent (2009, 2017) and from Latin America (2011), back to Britain itself (2015, set in Wales). This year, they are likely to send “I Am Not A Witch”, directed by Zambia-born, Wales-raised Rungano Nyoni, which played at Cannes Director’s Fortnight last year and shares the same innovative cinematographer with Oscar nominee “Embrace of the Serpent”. Set in Zambia, and mostly in the Bemba and Nyanja languages, it’s the story of a little girl accused of witchcraft in a traditional Zambian community. It has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and would represent Britain proudly. As for its competition, I don’t know of any Welsh-language features this year, and its main competitor on paper- Persian-language “Ghulam” starring Shahab Hosseini- (star of “A Separation”, “The Salesman”)- hasn’t been so well-received.

POSSIBLE DEBUT: 

22.   CYPRUS- "Smuggling Hendrix" Cyprus is the only EU Member State and the only filmmaking country in Europe that has never entered the Oscar race. They produce about four films per year and this year, no less than three have received critical acclaim. They include drama “Pause” (Karlovy Vary) and two comedies about the absurdity of the island’s 40-plus year division into independent Greek and Turkish mini-states. Hopefully, this will be the year that Cyprus joins the competition with “Smuggling Hendrix” (Sarajevo) which won Best International Film at the 2018 Tribeca Film Festival. It’s about a man whose dog runs away from the Greek side to the Turkish side a few meters away, forcing him to launch a Kafkaesque mission to smuggle him back. The third film- “Sunrise in Kimmeria” probably has too much English, but I’m not certain. 

FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS (Western Europe)

1. AUSTRIA- “Die Hölle” Austria is favored to send Michael Haneke’s “Happy End” but that doesn’t open in Austria until October 6^th so they’d need to organize a qualifying release or it won't be eligible. Because of that, Austria has three main candidates. “The Best of All Worlds” (Best Actress in Moscow) is a grim drama about a heroin addict trying to raise her young son. “Egon Schiele: Death and the Maiden” (Best Picture nominee at the 2017 Austrian Film Awards) is a biopic of a renowned Austrian painter who died in 1918 at the age of 28. “Die Hölle” is a thriller about a Turkish-Austrian woman who witnesses a murder committed by a serial killer, directed by Oscar winner Stefan Ruzowitzky (“The Counterfeiters”), making his first German-language film since 2009. These are the most likely candidates, but it’s a wide open race with three other films by previously submitted directors (“Beetroot in Teheran”, “Mister Universo”, “Killing Stella”), two clever comedies (“The Migrumpies”, “Wild Mouse”) and two dark dramas (“Tomcat” and “Seventeen”) in the running as well. Barbara Albert’s latest- historical drama “Licht” (Toronto) won’t open in time. The Austrian Academy likes their submissions dark and depressing, so I’m predicting Ruzowitzky’s Oscar will get his new serial killer thriller to the next round, followed by “The Best of All Worlds”, “Egon Schiele”, adolescent drama “Seventeen” and “Killing Stella”, which has a grieving mother narrating the tragic tale of  her late daughter's life.

2. BELGIUM- “Insyriated” Belgium is cinematically two separate nations, with Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonie having two separate film boards, separate national film awards and lots of co-productions with actors from the Netherlands and France respectively. Both sides have quite a few films to choose from this year. The Belgian Academy tries to alternate between the two sides, but since the past two years have seen both a Flemish and Wallon film selected, it’s anybody’s game. From Flanders, the three frontrunners are “Cargo”, “Home” and “King of the Belgians”.  From Wallonie, the most likely choices are “Insyriated”, “La fille inconnue” and “A Wedding”. The Brothers Dardennes are the darlings of Cannes and Belgium’s most famous directors, but Oscar has ignored them all four times they’ve been submitted (ranging from  “Two Days, One Night”, which deserved a nomination to the excruciatingly dull “The Son”). Their new film “The Unknown Girl” debuted at Cannes but it doesn’t have the buzz of his earliest films (though I’d argue it looks better). It’s about a woman investigating the murder of a young woman who knocked on her door begging for help before she was killed. The other Wallon films are actually not in French at all. “Insyriated” (starring the prolific Hiam Abbass, who seems to co-star in every movie made this year) won the Panorama Audience Award in Berlin and is in Arabic….it’s about a family trying to survive the civil war in Syria. “A Wedding” is mostly in Urdu, and is about an immigrant Pakistani family in Belgium, who are trying to force their young daughter into an arranged marriage. “Insyriated” is the best-reviewed and should be Wallonie’s choice. From Flanders, comedy “King of the Belgians” was "longlisted" for the prestigious LUX Prize for its tale of a fictional Belgian King and Queen desperately trying to get home from a trip to Turkey, when Wallonie suddenly secedes and Belgium disappears from the map. It’s the Belgian film I most want to see this year, butr could it have too much English to qualify? Fien Troch’s “Home” won Best Director in Venice 2016 for her haunting look at modern-day teenagers in the digital age. Finally, the upcoming “Cargo” is about a family torn apart when a father falls overboard, leaving his three sons with a failing business and a great deal of debt, each of whom deals with the crisis in a different way. It will open right before the deadline. I have a feeling “King of the Belgians” will be Flanders’ choice. Ultimately, I’m predicting Belgium will send the claustrophobic “Insyriated”, due to its solid reviews and topical subject matter. “King of the Belgians” and “Cargo” will probably come second and third, with the Brothers Dardennes in fourth. 

3. DENMARK- "Darkland" Denmark has been nominated for an Oscar five of the past seven years (plus a surprise shortlist spot for “Superclasico” in 2011)….arguably the best record in the world. Denmark typically chooses a 3-film shortlist in August and waits a month (why so long?!) to announce their Oscar candidate in late September. Denmark has approximately two dozen eligible films. There’s no visible frontrunner and this may be a year where they go home without a nomination. I predict their shortlist will be (1) “Across the Waters”, a historical drama about Danish Jews fleeing the country in the run-up to the Nazi occupation, (2)- Darkland” (Moscow), a revenge thriller about an Arab-Danish doctor who gives up his successful career to avenge the murder of his brother and (3)- “Never Again a Tomorrow”, about a 75-old year old man (played by director Erik Clausen, who represented Denmark twice in 1986 and 1994) who dies suddenly but who is able to go back to Earth and silently watch over his dysfunctional family. I think “Darkland” is the only lock on the shortlist…”Across the Waters” is sure to appeal to the American Academy but it didn’t make much of an impact in Denmark, while “Never Again” won’t premiere until August 31^st, so no reviews are available. Either could easily be replaced by boxing biopic “Pund for Pound” or "Word of God", the latest quirky film from Henrik Ruben Genz (“Terribly Happy”), a dramedy about a man named God and his holy family. Less likely: “You Disappear”, about a seemingly honest man accused of graft, and breezy comedy “Dan-Dream”. With by far the best reviews in a fairly weak year by Danish standards, I think “Darkland” has the best chance to represent Denmark.

4. FINLAND- “The Eternal Road” Finland has four very strong contenders this year and any of them- “The Eternal Road”, “The Other Side of Hope”, “Star Boys” and “Tom of Finland”- could be selected to represent the Nordic nation. The obvious choice is “The Other Side of Hope”, directed by Aki Kaurismaki- Finland’s only Oscar nominee and winner of this year’s Best Director prize at Berlinale. The movie has gotten great reviews and is relevant and topical- it’s about a bar owner and his burgeoning friendship with a group of newly arrived refugees and asylum seekers. However, the cranky Mr. Kaurismaki has twice refused to allow his films to be submitted for Oscar consideration (1996 and 2006), with vague rants of “not liking film competitions” (though he allowed his films to be sent in 2002 and 2011) and complaints about U.S. domestic politics. With Trump in office, he seems likely to do this again, opening the door to one of the other three films. “Tom of Finland” is the (toned-down) biopic of flamboyantly gay Finnish artist/photographer Touko Laaksonen whose work was variously described as art or pornography. The other two contenders haven’t been released yet. “Star Boys” premiered at the Moscow International Film Festival in June. It’s a drama about what happens when the sexual revolution of the 60s and 70s hits a small, conservative Finnish town. “The Eternal Road” is about a little-known period of history in the 1930s when right-wing Finns violently forced Finns suspected of Communist sympathies to emigrate to the USSR, where they then became the victim of Stalinist purges. “The Eternal Road” follows a Finnish immigrant in America who returns home due to the Great Depression, only to be forced into Russia shortly after his arrival. The film premieres in September, right before the deadline. Expect some more drama with Kaurismaki declining to allow his film "Other Side of Hope" to be sent, with “The Eternal Road” ultimately becoming the Finnish submission.

5. FRANCE- "120 BPM"

6. GERMANY- "Western"

7. GREECE- “Exodos 1826” Greece is going to be unpredictable this year since they usually look to the Hellenic Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) or the Thessaloniki Film Festival for their Oscar submissions. The two big winners at the 2017 Irises were in the running last year (“Suntan” and “Notias”) and the Greek Film winner at Thessaloniki was an obscure sports documentary (“90 Years PAOK”). Add to that the fact that many of their festival films have gotten middling reviews (anti-immigrant drama “Amerika Square” and twisted abduction/romantic-comedy “Afterluv”) or downright bad reviews (juvenile delinquent drama “Park” and the largely incomprehensible thriller “The Thread”) and Greece is going to be at a loss.  The best reviewed film of the year is probably “Lines”, about seven characters dealing with the Greek economic collapse, but that hasn’t gotten a domestic release yet. So what will Greece do? They’ll probably be forced to choose a more mainstream film, and I think the obvious choice will be “Exodos 1826”, a historical drama released this summer, about the Greek war for independence against the Turks. Another popular choice would be “The Other Me”, which won an Audience Award at Thessaloniki….it’s about a man trying to solve five different murders simultaneously. Competition is thin, so the producers of “Lines” should get their film released! My Top Five for now: “Exodos 1826”, “Amerika Square”, “Lines”, “The Other Me” and the quirky, upcoming “Ussak…Years Later”, about a financial crisis in an imaginary country (i.e. Greece).

8. GREENLAND (population: 56,000) is the smallest country (in terms of population) ever to enter the Foreign Oscar competition. I don’t think they have any features of documentaries eligible this year, but they do have a promising new fiction feature (“Anori”) in post-production. It’s a thriller starring the Greenlandic wife of Danish actor Nikolaj Coster-Waldau and hopefully it will be submitted next year. But Greenland, which last submitted a film in 2012, will probably be absent again this year.

9. ICELAND- “Heartstone”  Set in a tiny fishing village, coming-of-age drama “Heartstone”  has played at innumerable international festivals (including Venice and Toronto), gotten strong reviews and dominated the 2017 Edda Awards, winning Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and two of the four acting awards. Add that to the fact that Iceland has released very few films this year (they have about ten awaiting release) and that none of their major directors have new films, and the result is that Iceland has the easiest Oscar decision of any European country. I honestly can’t see them sending anything else. Tragic drama “Mihkel” and thriller “Under the Tree” should premiere this summer, but I can’t see either of those beating “Heartstone”. It’s a lock.

10. IRELAND- “Song of Granite” It’s rare that Ireland produces films in the Irish Gaelic language (although there are a sizable number of Irish-language television programs) so when one gets released, it’s got a fairly good shot at representing the nation at the Oscars. This year, they’ll probably send “Song of Granite”, a B&W musical drama/biopic about folk singer Joe Heaney, set against the backdrop of the beautiful Irish countryside. It played at South by Southwest and Karlovy Vary and is scheduled to get a limited release Stateside in November.

11. ITALY- "La tenerezza" Italy, as always, has plenty of movies to choose from, but I can't really see any potential winners this year. 

12. LUXEMBOURG- “Barrage” Multilingual Luxembourg has a small film industry which is focused mostly on co-productions with its larger neighbors, especially Belgium, France and Germany (all Luxembourgers are fluent in French and German), and to a lesser extent also with Austria, the UK and the Netherlands. They produce very few majority productions- typically two to five each year. This year, the only features I know of that are made by local directors are comedy “Rusty Boys”, drama “Barrage” and documentary “Tourist”. Starring the incomparable Isabelle Huppert, produced by local director Pol Cruchten (who has repped Luxembourg three times) and directed by an actual Luxembourger (Laura Schroeder), French—language mother-daughter drama “Barrage” is certain to get this. 64-year old beauty Huppert is actually the grandmother in this film, who is raising her granddaughter in Luxembourg when her flighty daughter returns. That should be enough to beat senior-citizen comedy “Rusty Boys” (in the local dialect) and “Tourist”, a documentary about a Luxembourg man who decides to start a new life on the Arctic island of Svalbard.

13. MALTA- “Limestone Cowboy” Malta submitted a film just once in 2014 and it reportedly did quite well. Malta (pop: 430,000) has a tiny national film industry but half of this small number are in English. Comedy-drama “Limestone Cowboy” premiered at a film festival in Malta last year but will be released in cinemas “at the end of the year”. The film will probably be Malta’s second-ever Oscar submission, but it remains to be seen whether its release date will qualify it for this year or next year. The film is about an eccentric old man who believes a childhood story that he will be a great Wild West Hero (though the tiny islands of Malta have no “Wild, Wild West”) and so decides to run for political office, embarrassing his social-climbing son. From the trailer, it seems like it may meet the Maltese "foreign language" requirement.

14. THE NETHERLANDS- “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike” The Netherlands has plenty of films to choose from, as they often do. I think the decision is likely to come down to “Layla M.”, a drama about a girl tempted by Islamic fundamentalism that has played at a myriad of international film festivals, and the upcoming “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike”, about a Canadian woman tracing her family history back to when her Dutch parents faced off against the Mafia in mid-20^th century Italy. Director Mike van Diem won an Oscar for “Character” twenty years ago and the Netherlands likes sending films that open right before the deadline, so I’m predicting “Tulips” gets the Nod. They’re also likely to consider “Bram Fischer”, a biopic made in South Africa about Nelson Mandela’s lawyer, artist biopic “A Real Vermeer”, and sad custody drama “Waldstille”. The directors of all five (except “Waldstille”) have been selected before. Unlikely but possible if the Dutch are in a lighter mood: absurdist anthology “Quality Time” and father-son dramedy “Waterboys”. Top Five for Holland: “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike”, “Layla M.”, “Waldstille”, “Bram Fischer” and “Waterboys”. UPDATE: The Netherlands announced an eight-film shortlist, which includes "Tulips", "Layla M." and "Quality Time", but not the other films mentioned. I'm sticking with my prediction of "Tulips", but there's definitely a lot of competition from "The Day My Father Became A Bush", a view of the outbreak of a war in a peaceful country, seen from the point of view of a young girl. 

15. NORWAY- “The Comet”  Like neighboring Denmark, Norway typically announces a three-film shortlist, but this year they will really struggle to find three worthy films. This year’s three Best Picture nominees at the Amanda Awards included a a car-racing comedy sequel and a children’s cartoon (which will presumably both be defeated by the shortlisted “The King’s Choice” at the ceremony on August 18). I predict the shortlisted three will be “Drib”, a comic mockumentary about the marketing of a new energy drink, “Kometen” (The Comet), about  a young man investigating the disappearance of his father who disappeared twelve years earlier when a comet was sighted, and “Thelma”, a sci-fi/horror film by Joachim Trier about a lesbian with supernatural powers (?!) “Comet” and “Thelma” will be released in August and September respectively. "Thelma" has good buzz and has already managed a number of international sales, but lesbian horror doesn't sound very Oscary, so I’m just going to predict “Comet". Anyway, it's clear that no films released so far this year have any chance. “Hoggeren”, about a man who goes to live in the forest, and big-budget fantasy film “Askeladden” could also appear on the shortlist, though I don’t think they’ll have much of a chance. It appears to be the weakest of any of the major European countries.

16. PORTUGAL-“Fatima” Production is way up in Portugal…As of mid-August, they seem to have nearly twenty eligible fiction features plus a number of documentaries. They are the only Western European country (alongside tiny Luxembourg) never to have made it to the shortlist stage…In all honesty, they’ve probably never even come close.  This year, they have a quartet of  contenders- (1)- the gonzo, full-on erotic drama “The Ornithologist” (Best Director, Locarno 2016) which finally opened in Portugal in October, (2)- Cannes unemployment musical "The Nothing Factory" which will open domestically in September, (3)- the lower-profile “Fatima”, about a group of women embarking on a 400km pilgrimage on foot, and (4)- “Saint George”, about a man dealing with the Portuguese economic crisis.  The directors of three of these films have been selected at least once before (Joao Canijo, who directed “Fatima”, was selected twice in 2005 and 2012) and all four films have gotten good reviews, though clearly “Ornithologist”- with it’s graphic gay sex- is not for everyone. In such a strong year, Portugal should choose their best film (which they don’t always do….i.e. rejecting “Mysteries of Lisbon” for a dull, dusty documentary) so I’m predicting “Fatima”, “The Nothing Factory", The Ornithologist” and “Saint George” in that order, with “Jacinta” (the #1 box-office hit this past year), about a 1917 sighting of the Virgin Mary in a distant fifth. Talky crime drama “Leviano" is a potential spoiler if it gets released in time.

17. SPAIN- TBD

18. SWEDEN- “The Square” Few major countries have an easier choice this year than Sweden. First of all, "The Square" won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Second, although his uncomfortable films are definitely an acquired taste, director Ruben Ostlund has been selected twice to represent Sweden and he made the Final Nine last time with “Force Majeure”. Lastly, in a mostly weak year, Sweden just doesn’t have much else to send. I haven’t enjoyed either of Ostlund’s previous submissions, but "The Square" is pretty much a lock. The satirical drama is about an eccentric art exhibition dedicated to idealism. I’ve heard the film is mostly in Swedish, but it has no less than three English-speaking leads. If language becomes a problem, the only other real option is “Sami Blood”, a well-reviewed drama based on a true story about a teenage girl from the indigenous Sami community and the discrimination and exploitation she suffered at the hands of Swedish authorities in the early 20^th century. It was shortlisted for the LUX Prize alongside "120 BPM" and "Western". The other high-profile Swedish film this year- “Borg/McEnroe” with Shia LeBoeuf and Stellan Skarsgard- almost certainly has too much English to qualify here.

19. SWITZERLAND- “The Divine Order” Switzerland is always an unpredictable one, and their choices are often unexpected. Their gamble last year on animated film “My Life As a Zucchini” paid-off as they made the Top Nine for only the third time since they winning the Oscar in 1990. I seem to be the only one that failed to see the charm of this cloying cartoon. This year, I expect they will send either “The Divine Order”, a drama about women fighting for the right to vote in 1971 (you read that right….Swiss women apparently could not vote or work without permission until 1971) or “Goliath”, about a young man who begins taking steroids to protect his pregnant girlfriend, but ends up being abusive. “The Divine Order” did well at this year’s Swiss Film Awards (netting five of the total nine acting nominations, and winning three awards. It lost Best Pic to “Zucchini”) and won the Audience Award at this year’s Tribeca Film Festival. “Goliath” is the only Swiss film in competition at this year’s Locarno Fest. These are the two usual Swiss precursors, so it’s probably going to be one of these two. Other options include the Italian-language “Seven Days” (which has booked a UK release), about a man in love with his prospective sister-in-law, or the German-language “Marija” (a thieving Ukrainian immigrant tries to make ends meet) or weird, dark thriller “Animals” (Berlin).  The directors of “Seven Days” and “Animals” have been submitted before. French Switzerland has been quiet. I predict “The Divine Order”, followed by “Goliath” and “Animals”. UPDATE: "The Divine Order" became the official Swiss candidate on August 4th.

20. TURKEY- “Big Big World” With Semih Kaplanoglu working in English this year and Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s new film not ready until 2018, Turkey is wide open, with a dozen real possibilities. I was going to predict “Ayla”- a drama about a Turkish soldier saving an adorable Korean orphan during the Korean War- but it looks like that won’t be ready either. So, I see seven main possibilities: six award winners “Album” (Cannes), “Big Big World” (Jury Prize in Venice, Best Picture in Adana), “Blue Bicycle” (Best Turkish Film in Antalya), “Clair/Obscur” (Best International Film in Antalya), “Daha” (Karlovy Vary) and “Yellow Heat” (Best Director in Moscow, dominated Istanbul Film Festival), as well as one local mainstream hit- “Sour Apples”, directed by popular actor/director Yilmaz Erdogan. All seven films are supposed to be “good”, but I haven’t heard that any of them are “great”, and they’re all at approximately the same level. Ultimately, I think Turkey will select either “Big Big World” or “Clair/Obscur” and I give the edge to the more macho “Big Big World”. “World” is especially likely because it is the rare Turkish film that has managed awards from both local and international critics. Plus Reha Erdem is a respected director who hasn’t been selected since 2000. The film is about two orphaned “siblings” who run away to try and escape the world. The female-helmed “Clair/Obscur” is about two very different women- one rich, one poor- who find themselves facing many of the same challenges. It’s a strong threat. Not far behind- minimalist adoption comedy “Album” (often compared to Romanian New Wave), “Yellow Heat”, a drama about poverty that has also managed awards inside and outside of Turkey, and Erdogan’s popular dramedy “Sour Apples”, about three decades in the life of a family moving around Turkey. Also possible in a very close year- “Ember” earned a Best Pic nomination at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards, and “My Father’s Wings” looks like the sort of dark social drama the Turks often send. This is a tough one.

21. UNITED KINGDOM- “My Pure Land” The Brits have gotten creative in this category since they returned to the Oscar competition in 2008, sending four Welsh movies, and four made by British directors in Afghanistan, Turkey, Jordan (with an Iranian cast) and the Philippines. This is possible thanks to a rule change that allowed countries to send movies in languages that aren’t native to the nominating country. It was precipitated by the UK submission of Hindi-language “The Warrior” directed by British director Asif Kapadia, which was disqualified. I was sure that Oscar winner Kapadia (“Amy”) was finally going to benefit from the rule change this year with “Ali & Nino”, a $20 million period romance set in turn-of-the-century Azerbaijan, written by Oscar-winning British screenwriter Christopher Hampton. However this drama starring Palestinian actor Adam Bakri and Spanish actress Maria Valverde looks like it was filmed mostly in English. There appears to be dubbed Azerbaijani version (could it compete for Azerbaijan?? There aren't many Azerbaijani crew)  but the UK release was probably completely in English. So, I'm predicting “My Pure Land”, an Urdu-language drama set in Pakistan, about three women trying to defend their home from armed invaders. The UK could also arrange a qualifying release for “Gholam”, a Persian-language drama directed by London-based, Iran-born director Mitra Tabrizian, and starring Shahab Hosseini (Best Actor in Cannes for Oscar winner “A Separation”), about an Iranian émigré whose military past catches up with him in London. It’s currently scheduled to be released in the UK in December and should compete for next year. Other options:  “Mahi MRI”, an energetic multi-cultural comedy in Punjabi about an Indian student studying in Birmingham and “The Receptionist”, a co-production with Taiwan about an illegal Chinese massage parlor in London. As for Welsh movies, the only feature I know of is “The Library Suicides”, which was released in Wales too early (August 2016).