FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS (Western Europe)

1. AUSTRIA- “Die Hölle” Austria is favored to send Michael Haneke’s “Happy End” but that doesn’t open in Austria until October 6^th so they’d need to organize a qualifying release or it won't be eligible. Because of that, Austria has three main candidates. “The Best of All Worlds” (Best Actress in Moscow) is a grim drama about a heroin addict trying to raise her young son. “Egon Schiele: Death and the Maiden” (Best Picture nominee at the 2017 Austrian Film Awards) is a biopic of a renowned Austrian painter who died in 1918 at the age of 28. “Die Hölle” is a thriller about a Turkish-Austrian woman who witnesses a murder committed by a serial killer, directed by Oscar winner Stefan Ruzowitzky (“The Counterfeiters”), making his first German-language film since 2009. These are the most likely candidates, but it’s a wide open race with three other films by previously submitted directors (“Beetroot in Teheran”, “Mister Universo”, “Killing Stella”), two clever comedies (“The Migrumpies”, “Wild Mouse”) and two dark dramas (“Tomcat” and “Seventeen”) in the running as well. Barbara Albert’s latest- historical drama “Licht” (Toronto) won’t open in time. The Austrian Academy likes their submissions dark and depressing, so I’m predicting Ruzowitzky’s Oscar will get his new serial killer thriller to the next round, followed by “The Best of All Worlds”, “Egon Schiele”, adolescent drama “Seventeen” and “Killing Stella”, which has a grieving mother narrating the tragic tale of  her late daughter's life.

2. BELGIUM- “Insyriated” Belgium is cinematically two separate nations, with Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonie having two separate film boards, separate national film awards and lots of co-productions with actors from the Netherlands and France respectively. Both sides have quite a few films to choose from this year. The Belgian Academy tries to alternate between the two sides, but since the past two years have seen both a Flemish and Wallon film selected, it’s anybody’s game. From Flanders, the three frontrunners are “Cargo”, “Home” and “King of the Belgians”.  From Wallonie, the most likely choices are “Insyriated”, “La fille inconnue” and “A Wedding”. The Brothers Dardennes are the darlings of Cannes and Belgium’s most famous directors, but Oscar has ignored them all four times they’ve been submitted (ranging from  “Two Days, One Night”, which deserved a nomination to the excruciatingly dull “The Son”). Their new film “The Unknown Girl” debuted at Cannes but it doesn’t have the buzz of his earliest films (though I’d argue it looks better). It’s about a woman investigating the murder of a young woman who knocked on her door begging for help before she was killed. The other Wallon films are actually not in French at all. “Insyriated” (starring the prolific Hiam Abbass, who seems to co-star in every movie made this year) won the Panorama Audience Award in Berlin and is in Arabic….it’s about a family trying to survive the civil war in Syria. “A Wedding” is mostly in Urdu, and is about an immigrant Pakistani family in Belgium, who are trying to force their young daughter into an arranged marriage. “Insyriated” is the best-reviewed and should be Wallonie’s choice. From Flanders, comedy “King of the Belgians” was "longlisted" for the prestigious LUX Prize for its tale of a fictional Belgian King and Queen desperately trying to get home from a trip to Turkey, when Wallonie suddenly secedes and Belgium disappears from the map. It’s the Belgian film I most want to see this year, butr could it have too much English to qualify? Fien Troch’s “Home” won Best Director in Venice 2016 for her haunting look at modern-day teenagers in the digital age. Finally, the upcoming “Cargo” is about a family torn apart when a father falls overboard, leaving his three sons with a failing business and a great deal of debt, each of whom deals with the crisis in a different way. It will open right before the deadline. I have a feeling “King of the Belgians” will be Flanders’ choice. Ultimately, I’m predicting Belgium will send the claustrophobic “Insyriated”, due to its solid reviews and topical subject matter. “King of the Belgians” and “Cargo” will probably come second and third, with the Brothers Dardennes in fourth. 

3. DENMARK- "Darkland" Denmark has been nominated for an Oscar five of the past seven years (plus a surprise shortlist spot for “Superclasico” in 2011)….arguably the best record in the world. Denmark typically chooses a 3-film shortlist in August and waits a month (why so long?!) to announce their Oscar candidate in late September. Denmark has approximately two dozen eligible films. There’s no visible frontrunner and this may be a year where they go home without a nomination. I predict their shortlist will be (1) “Across the Waters”, a historical drama about Danish Jews fleeing the country in the run-up to the Nazi occupation, (2)- Darkland” (Moscow), a revenge thriller about an Arab-Danish doctor who gives up his successful career to avenge the murder of his brother and (3)- “Never Again a Tomorrow”, about a 75-old year old man (played by director Erik Clausen, who represented Denmark twice in 1986 and 1994) who dies suddenly but who is able to go back to Earth and silently watch over his dysfunctional family. I think “Darkland” is the only lock on the shortlist…”Across the Waters” is sure to appeal to the American Academy but it didn’t make much of an impact in Denmark, while “Never Again” won’t premiere until August 31^st, so no reviews are available. Either could easily be replaced by boxing biopic “Pund for Pound” or "Word of God", the latest quirky film from Henrik Ruben Genz (“Terribly Happy”), a dramedy about a man named God and his holy family. Less likely: “You Disappear”, about a seemingly honest man accused of graft, and breezy comedy “Dan-Dream”. With by far the best reviews in a fairly weak year by Danish standards, I think “Darkland” has the best chance to represent Denmark.

4. FINLAND- “The Eternal Road” Finland has four very strong contenders this year and any of them- “The Eternal Road”, “The Other Side of Hope”, “Star Boys” and “Tom of Finland”- could be selected to represent the Nordic nation. The obvious choice is “The Other Side of Hope”, directed by Aki Kaurismaki- Finland’s only Oscar nominee and winner of this year’s Best Director prize at Berlinale. The movie has gotten great reviews and is relevant and topical- it’s about a bar owner and his burgeoning friendship with a group of newly arrived refugees and asylum seekers. However, the cranky Mr. Kaurismaki has twice refused to allow his films to be submitted for Oscar consideration (1996 and 2006), with vague rants of “not liking film competitions” (though he allowed his films to be sent in 2002 and 2011) and complaints about U.S. domestic politics. With Trump in office, he seems likely to do this again, opening the door to one of the other three films. “Tom of Finland” is the (toned-down) biopic of flamboyantly gay Finnish artist/photographer Touko Laaksonen whose work was variously described as art or pornography. The other two contenders haven’t been released yet. “Star Boys” premiered at the Moscow International Film Festival in June. It’s a drama about what happens when the sexual revolution of the 60s and 70s hits a small, conservative Finnish town. “The Eternal Road” is about a little-known period of history in the 1930s when right-wing Finns violently forced Finns suspected of Communist sympathies to emigrate to the USSR, where they then became the victim of Stalinist purges. “The Eternal Road” follows a Finnish immigrant in America who returns home due to the Great Depression, only to be forced into Russia shortly after his arrival. The film premieres in September, right before the deadline. Expect some more drama with Kaurismaki declining to allow his film "Other Side of Hope" to be sent, with “The Eternal Road” ultimately becoming the Finnish submission.

5. FRANCE- "120 BPM"

6. GERMANY- "Western"

7. GREECE- “Exodos 1826” Greece is going to be unpredictable this year since they usually look to the Hellenic Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) or the Thessaloniki Film Festival for their Oscar submissions. The two big winners at the 2017 Irises were in the running last year (“Suntan” and “Notias”) and the Greek Film winner at Thessaloniki was an obscure sports documentary (“90 Years PAOK”). Add to that the fact that many of their festival films have gotten middling reviews (anti-immigrant drama “Amerika Square” and twisted abduction/romantic-comedy “Afterluv”) or downright bad reviews (juvenile delinquent drama “Park” and the largely incomprehensible thriller “The Thread”) and Greece is going to be at a loss.  The best reviewed film of the year is probably “Lines”, about seven characters dealing with the Greek economic collapse, but that hasn’t gotten a domestic release yet. So what will Greece do? They’ll probably be forced to choose a more mainstream film, and I think the obvious choice will be “Exodos 1826”, a historical drama released this summer, about the Greek war for independence against the Turks. Another popular choice would be “The Other Me”, which won an Audience Award at Thessaloniki….it’s about a man trying to solve five different murders simultaneously. Competition is thin, so the producers of “Lines” should get their film released! My Top Five for now: “Exodos 1826”, “Amerika Square”, “Lines”, “The Other Me” and the quirky, upcoming “Ussak…Years Later”, about a financial crisis in an imaginary country (i.e. Greece).

8. GREENLAND (population: 56,000) is the smallest country (in terms of population) ever to enter the Foreign Oscar competition. I don’t think they have any features of documentaries eligible this year, but they do have a promising new fiction feature (“Anori”) in post-production. It’s a thriller starring the Greenlandic wife of Danish actor Nikolaj Coster-Waldau and hopefully it will be submitted next year. But Greenland, which last submitted a film in 2012, will probably be absent again this year.

9. ICELAND- “Heartstone”  Set in a tiny fishing village, coming-of-age drama “Heartstone”  has played at innumerable international festivals (including Venice and Toronto), gotten strong reviews and dominated the 2017 Edda Awards, winning Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and two of the four acting awards. Add that to the fact that Iceland has released very few films this year (they have about ten awaiting release) and that none of their major directors have new films, and the result is that Iceland has the easiest Oscar decision of any European country. I honestly can’t see them sending anything else. Tragic drama “Mihkel” and thriller “Under the Tree” should premiere this summer, but I can’t see either of those beating “Heartstone”. It’s a lock.

10. IRELAND- “Song of Granite” It’s rare that Ireland produces films in the Irish Gaelic language (although there are a sizable number of Irish-language television programs) so when one gets released, it’s got a fairly good shot at representing the nation at the Oscars. This year, they’ll probably send “Song of Granite”, a B&W musical drama/biopic about folk singer Joe Heaney, set against the backdrop of the beautiful Irish countryside. It played at South by Southwest and Karlovy Vary and is scheduled to get a limited release Stateside in November.

11. ITALY- "La tenerezza" Italy, as always, has plenty of movies to choose from, but I can't really see any potential winners this year. 

12. LUXEMBOURG- “Barrage” Multilingual Luxembourg has a small film industry which is focused mostly on co-productions with its larger neighbors, especially Belgium, France and Germany (all Luxembourgers are fluent in French and German), and to a lesser extent also with Austria, the UK and the Netherlands. They produce very few majority productions- typically two to five each year. This year, the only features I know of that are made by local directors are comedy “Rusty Boys”, drama “Barrage” and documentary “Tourist”. Starring the incomparable Isabelle Huppert, produced by local director Pol Cruchten (who has repped Luxembourg three times) and directed by an actual Luxembourger (Laura Schroeder), French—language mother-daughter drama “Barrage” is certain to get this. 64-year old beauty Huppert is actually the grandmother in this film, who is raising her granddaughter in Luxembourg when her flighty daughter returns. That should be enough to beat senior-citizen comedy “Rusty Boys” (in the local dialect) and “Tourist”, a documentary about a Luxembourg man who decides to start a new life on the Arctic island of Svalbard.

13. MALTA- “Limestone Cowboy” Malta submitted a film just once in 2014 and it reportedly did quite well. Malta (pop: 430,000) has a tiny national film industry but half of this small number are in English. Comedy-drama “Limestone Cowboy” premiered at a film festival in Malta last year but will be released in cinemas “at the end of the year”. The film will probably be Malta’s second-ever Oscar submission, but it remains to be seen whether its release date will qualify it for this year or next year. The film is about an eccentric old man who believes a childhood story that he will be a great Wild West Hero (though the tiny islands of Malta have no “Wild, Wild West”) and so decides to run for political office, embarrassing his social-climbing son. From the trailer, it seems like it may meet the Maltese "foreign language" requirement.

14. THE NETHERLANDS- “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike” The Netherlands has plenty of films to choose from, as they often do. I think the decision is likely to come down to “Layla M.”, a drama about a girl tempted by Islamic fundamentalism that has played at a myriad of international film festivals, and the upcoming “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike”, about a Canadian woman tracing her family history back to when her Dutch parents faced off against the Mafia in mid-20^th century Italy. Director Mike van Diem won an Oscar for “Character” twenty years ago and the Netherlands likes sending films that open right before the deadline, so I’m predicting “Tulips” gets the Nod. They’re also likely to consider “Bram Fischer”, a biopic made in South Africa about Nelson Mandela’s lawyer, artist biopic “A Real Vermeer”, and sad custody drama “Waldstille”. The directors of all five (except “Waldstille”) have been selected before. Unlikely but possible if the Dutch are in a lighter mood: absurdist anthology “Quality Time” and father-son dramedy “Waterboys”. Top Five for Holland: “Tulips, Love, Honour and a Bike”, “Layla M.”, “Waldstille”, “Bram Fischer” and “Waterboys”. UPDATE: The Netherlands announced an eight-film shortlist, which includes "Tulips", "Layla M." and "Quality Time", but not the other films mentioned. I'm sticking with my prediction of "Tulips", but there's definitely a lot of competition from "The Day My Father Became A Bush", a view of the outbreak of a war in a peaceful country, seen from the point of view of a young girl. 

15. NORWAY- “The Comet”  Like neighboring Denmark, Norway typically announces a three-film shortlist, but this year they will really struggle to find three worthy films. This year’s three Best Picture nominees at the Amanda Awards included a a car-racing comedy sequel and a children’s cartoon (which will presumably both be defeated by the shortlisted “The King’s Choice” at the ceremony on August 18). I predict the shortlisted three will be “Drib”, a comic mockumentary about the marketing of a new energy drink, “Kometen” (The Comet), about  a young man investigating the disappearance of his father who disappeared twelve years earlier when a comet was sighted, and “Thelma”, a sci-fi/horror film by Joachim Trier about a lesbian with supernatural powers (?!) “Comet” and “Thelma” will be released in August and September respectively. "Thelma" has good buzz and has already managed a number of international sales, but lesbian horror doesn't sound very Oscary, so I’m just going to predict “Comet". Anyway, it's clear that no films released so far this year have any chance. “Hoggeren”, about a man who goes to live in the forest, and big-budget fantasy film “Askeladden” could also appear on the shortlist, though I don’t think they’ll have much of a chance. It appears to be the weakest of any of the major European countries.

16. PORTUGAL-“Fatima” Production is way up in Portugal…As of mid-August, they seem to have nearly twenty eligible fiction features plus a number of documentaries. They are the only Western European country (alongside tiny Luxembourg) never to have made it to the shortlist stage…In all honesty, they’ve probably never even come close.  This year, they have a quartet of  contenders- (1)- the gonzo, full-on erotic drama “The Ornithologist” (Best Director, Locarno 2016) which finally opened in Portugal in October, (2)- Cannes unemployment musical "The Nothing Factory" which will open domestically in September, (3)- the lower-profile “Fatima”, about a group of women embarking on a 400km pilgrimage on foot, and (4)- “Saint George”, about a man dealing with the Portuguese economic crisis.  The directors of three of these films have been selected at least once before (Joao Canijo, who directed “Fatima”, was selected twice in 2005 and 2012) and all four films have gotten good reviews, though clearly “Ornithologist”- with it’s graphic gay sex- is not for everyone. In such a strong year, Portugal should choose their best film (which they don’t always do….i.e. rejecting “Mysteries of Lisbon” for a dull, dusty documentary) so I’m predicting “Fatima”, “The Nothing Factory", The Ornithologist” and “Saint George” in that order, with “Jacinta” (the #1 box-office hit this past year), about a 1917 sighting of the Virgin Mary in a distant fifth. Talky crime drama “Leviano" is a potential spoiler if it gets released in time.

17. SPAIN- TBD

18. SWEDEN- “The Square” Few major countries have an easier choice this year than Sweden. First of all, "The Square" won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Second, although his uncomfortable films are definitely an acquired taste, director Ruben Ostlund has been selected twice to represent Sweden and he made the Final Nine last time with “Force Majeure”. Lastly, in a mostly weak year, Sweden just doesn’t have much else to send. I haven’t enjoyed either of Ostlund’s previous submissions, but "The Square" is pretty much a lock. The satirical drama is about an eccentric art exhibition dedicated to idealism. I’ve heard the film is mostly in Swedish, but it has no less than three English-speaking leads. If language becomes a problem, the only other real option is “Sami Blood”, a well-reviewed drama based on a true story about a teenage girl from the indigenous Sami community and the discrimination and exploitation she suffered at the hands of Swedish authorities in the early 20^th century. It was shortlisted for the LUX Prize alongside "120 BPM" and "Western". The other high-profile Swedish film this year- “Borg/McEnroe” with Shia LeBoeuf and Stellan Skarsgard- almost certainly has too much English to qualify here.

19. SWITZERLAND- “The Divine Order” Switzerland is always an unpredictable one, and their choices are often unexpected. Their gamble last year on animated film “My Life As a Zucchini” paid-off as they made the Top Nine for only the third time since they winning the Oscar in 1990. I seem to be the only one that failed to see the charm of this cloying cartoon. This year, I expect they will send either “The Divine Order”, a drama about women fighting for the right to vote in 1971 (you read that right….Swiss women apparently could not vote or work without permission until 1971) or “Goliath”, about a young man who begins taking steroids to protect his pregnant girlfriend, but ends up being abusive. “The Divine Order” did well at this year’s Swiss Film Awards (netting five of the total nine acting nominations, and winning three awards. It lost Best Pic to “Zucchini”) and won the Audience Award at this year’s Tribeca Film Festival. “Goliath” is the only Swiss film in competition at this year’s Locarno Fest. These are the two usual Swiss precursors, so it’s probably going to be one of these two. Other options include the Italian-language “Seven Days” (which has booked a UK release), about a man in love with his prospective sister-in-law, or the German-language “Marija” (a thieving Ukrainian immigrant tries to make ends meet) or weird, dark thriller “Animals” (Berlin).  The directors of “Seven Days” and “Animals” have been submitted before. French Switzerland has been quiet. I predict “The Divine Order”, followed by “Goliath” and “Animals”. UPDATE: "The Divine Order" became the official Swiss candidate on August 4th.

20. TURKEY- “Big Big World” With Semih Kaplanoglu working in English this year and Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s new film not ready until 2018, Turkey is wide open, with a dozen real possibilities. I was going to predict “Ayla”- a drama about a Turkish soldier saving an adorable Korean orphan during the Korean War- but it looks like that won’t be ready either. So, I see seven main possibilities: six award winners “Album” (Cannes), “Big Big World” (Jury Prize in Venice, Best Picture in Adana), “Blue Bicycle” (Best Turkish Film in Antalya), “Clair/Obscur” (Best International Film in Antalya), “Daha” (Karlovy Vary) and “Yellow Heat” (Best Director in Moscow, dominated Istanbul Film Festival), as well as one local mainstream hit- “Sour Apples”, directed by popular actor/director Yilmaz Erdogan. All seven films are supposed to be “good”, but I haven’t heard that any of them are “great”, and they’re all at approximately the same level. Ultimately, I think Turkey will select either “Big Big World” or “Clair/Obscur” and I give the edge to the more macho “Big Big World”. “World” is especially likely because it is the rare Turkish film that has managed awards from both local and international critics. Plus Reha Erdem is a respected director who hasn’t been selected since 2000. The film is about two orphaned “siblings” who run away to try and escape the world. The female-helmed “Clair/Obscur” is about two very different women- one rich, one poor- who find themselves facing many of the same challenges. It’s a strong threat. Not far behind- minimalist adoption comedy “Album” (often compared to Romanian New Wave), “Yellow Heat”, a drama about poverty that has also managed awards inside and outside of Turkey, and Erdogan’s popular dramedy “Sour Apples”, about three decades in the life of a family moving around Turkey. Also possible in a very close year- “Ember” earned a Best Pic nomination at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards, and “My Father’s Wings” looks like the sort of dark social drama the Turks often send. This is a tough one.

21. UNITED KINGDOM- “My Pure Land” The Brits have gotten creative in this category since they returned to the Oscar competition in 2008, sending four Welsh movies, and four made by British directors in Afghanistan, Turkey, Jordan (with an Iranian cast) and the Philippines. This is possible thanks to a rule change that allowed countries to send movies in languages that aren’t native to the nominating country. It was precipitated by the UK submission of Hindi-language “The Warrior” directed by British director Asif Kapadia, which was disqualified. I was sure that Oscar winner Kapadia (“Amy”) was finally going to benefit from the rule change this year with “Ali & Nino”, a $20 million period romance set in turn-of-the-century Azerbaijan, written by Oscar-winning British screenwriter Christopher Hampton. However this drama starring Palestinian actor Adam Bakri and Spanish actress Maria Valverde looks like it was filmed mostly in English. There appears to be dubbed Azerbaijani version (could it compete for Azerbaijan?? There aren't many Azerbaijani crew)  but the UK release was probably completely in English. So, I'm predicting “My Pure Land”, an Urdu-language drama set in Pakistan, about three women trying to defend their home from armed invaders. The UK could also arrange a qualifying release for “Gholam”, a Persian-language drama directed by London-based, Iran-born director Mitra Tabrizian, and starring Shahab Hosseini (Best Actor in Cannes for Oscar winner “A Separation”), about an Iranian émigré whose military past catches up with him in London. It’s currently scheduled to be released in the UK in December and should compete for next year. Other options:  “Mahi MRI”, an energetic multi-cultural comedy in Punjabi about an Indian student studying in Birmingham and “The Receptionist”, a co-production with Taiwan about an illegal Chinese massage parlor in London. As for Welsh movies, the only feature I know of is “The Library Suicides”, which was released in Wales too early (August 2016). 

OSCAR SUBMISSION PREDICTIONS 2015-2016, RUSSIA to VIETNAM (Pt. 5 of 5)

And here's the last group of predictions, minus the unpredictable Russians. I will try to research the final two giant countries (France and India) over the next week. 

1. RUSSIA- "Sunstroke" Russia is particularly confusing, and a lot will depend on who exactly is on their selection committee! In 2011, there was a big controversy when Russia selected the critically maligned “Burnt by the Sun: The Citadel”, which many said was chosen due to director Nikita Mikhalkov’s political connections. It's possible though I thought this judgment was a bit harsh. It's true that Mikhalkov is a big supporter of Vladimir Putin. But, whatever his politics, he had never failed to be nominated for an Oscar, winning for “Burnt by the Sun” and nominated for “12” and “Close to Eden”. So you could argue that Russia just thought he was their best chance. Last year, people (including me) said the politicized Russian Academy would never choose “Leviathan”. Although universally praised as the best Russian film of the year, it was almost banned at home for its realistic portrayal of Russian political corruption. Film critics were thrilled when they decided to send it in after all. Why? Is the new selection committee liberal and fair? Did they do it as a small, Machiavellian gesture to make it seem that they were liberal and fair? Or did they put political considerations aside and just decide they wanted to win an Oscar? We might have a better idea this year when Nikita Mikhalkov’s latest bloated historical epic “Sunstroke” faces off against “The Fool”, another critically praised drama about Russian corruption. The three-hour “Sunstroke”, set amidst Russia’s political turmoil in the early 20^th century, has been criticized for turning a four-page story into an expensive, overlong film. However (with the exception of last year’s surprise “Leviathan”) Russia almost always chooses these sorts of BIG historical dramas,  and Mikhalkov is almost a default nominee when he has a new film out. Add to that the fact that this takes place in the disputed region of Crimea, and “Sunstroke” would be a very pro-Russian choice. “The Fool” (aka “Durak”), about a lowly plumber facing off against a corrupt regional mayor, has better reviews. It won Best Screenplay at the Russian Nika Awards (beating “Leviathan”), received a Best Picture nomination and did reasonably well at the box-office. But it’s not as high-profile as “Leviathan” and there won’t be any pressure to choose another anti-corruption drama. And don’t necessarily count out the baity “Batallion”, about a battalion of female soldiers serving in a suicide squad during the Russian Civil War. This would let the Russians choose a patriotic war film while avoid the controversy of another Mikhalkov. Some online are predicting Andrei Konchalovsky’s “Postman’s White Nights” (Venice), but Konchalovsky pulled his boring film from the Oscar race last year and premiered the film on Russian television, rendering it ineligible. Konchalovsky, who lives in the US, said he didn’t want a Hollywood award.  Two other films by previously selected directors are long-shots- futuristic, existential “Under Electric Clouds” (Berlin) simply seems to make no sense, while “Zvezda”, a comedy-drama about an aspiring actress seems too light to represent the dour Russians. Other choices include “Angels of Revolution” (Rotterdam), about a female Communist official trying to “Sovietize” the Khanty and Nenets peoples of Northern Russia, “Arventur” (Moscow), an animated film based on a Chinese fable that won a Silver Prize at the Moscow Film Festival, “Orleans”, about an evil little town approached by a sort of Faustian devil and "Pioneer Heroes”, about the last generation of Soviets before the fall of the USSR. Dark horse: Ukrainian co-production “Battle of Sevastopol” wrapped up production just as Russian and Ukrainian tensions began flaring. Since the director is Ukrainian, it should compete for them. See Ukraine below. Final verdict: It's nowhere near a sure thing, but it’s stupid to bet against Nikita Mikhalkov, beloved of both Putin and AMPAS. “Batallion” and “The Fool” will duke it out for second place.

2. SAUDI ARABIA- Nothing eligible. Saudi Arabia banned cinemas in 1980, making it nearly impossible for local films to meet the AMPAS requirement that films screen in their country of origin for seven days. The female-helmed “Wadjda” managed to get around the rules by screening at foreign cultural centers and oil rigs. There are rumors that Saudi Arabia will re-open cinemas soon but for now local films cannot qualify in the normal way. Despite this, Saudi Arabia has a thriving market in short films. The second annual Saudi Film Festival in Dammam managed to go forward this year, although there were no features in competition. Ironically, the 1^st and 2^nd prizes went to shorts directed by Saudi women, perhaps following in Haifaa Al-Mansour’s footsteps. As for the Oscar race, I don’t think the Saudis have anything eligible.

3. SERBIA- "Enclave" Serbia unfortunately changed its selection process a few years back, and now only considers films that pay an entrance fee (I think 300 euro) to the Serbian Academy of Film Art and Science. Last year, my prediction (“Barbarians”) didn’t pay the money so it wasn't even in the running. I see as many as eight Serbian possibilities, but it’s impossible to know which films will pay the money to enter the race. This year’s obvious choice seems to be “Panama”, a youth-oriented thriller that screened in Cannes and Sarajevo about the perils of love and relationships in the modern-day world of social media.  Serbia often passes over youth-oriented films, so I think its far more likely they will send “Enclave”, a well-reviewed (and politically relevant) film about friendship across the ethnic divide in the disputed Kosovo region. Politically, it would be a good choice since Serbian foreign policy strongly advocates the return of independent Kosovo to Serbian control. Two period dramas are also in with a chance- “For King and Homeland”, about the memories of a Serbian-Yugoslavian WWII veteran and “The Man Who Defended Gavrilo Princip”, about the fate of the Serbian assassin who started World War I by killing the Archduke Ferdinand. The director of "Gavrilo Princip" is the screenwriter of three previous Serbian submissions. Basketball drama “We Will Be World Champions”, by a previously submitted director, is sort of possible but only because Serbia has selected sports-themed dramas three times, as is “Next to Me” (Best Picture, Pula), a violent drama about a woman who takes action against a gang of nationalist students who attack her because of her husband’s controversial artwork. There’s also hope for “The Disobedient” (Sundance 2014), a drama about friends reunited by a funeral, and “No One’s Child” (Venice 2014), about a feral child found in the woods. As I said, so much depends on which producers pay the entrance fee. My prediction is “Enclave” and I’m feeling pretty confident about it. Runner-ups (in order): “Panama” (with its Cannes prestige), “Next to Me” (which will premiere right before the deadline), “The Man Who Defended Gavrilo Princip” and “No One’s Child”. 

4. SINGAPORE- "3688" Singapore celebrates 50 years of independence from Malaysia this year and several of their 20 or so local releases this year will celebrate the city-state's vibrant culture, history and traditions. “7 Letters” is a series of short films about Singapore's national identity, directed by seven of the country’s most prominent filmmakers. The film was suddenly green-lighted for a limited commercial release after special screenings sold out immediately. Among the seven directors is Royston Tan who also has a new musical- “3688”- about an aspiring singer whose dreams are hampered by taking her care of her sick father. Musicals don’t usually play well abroad, but three of Singapore’s eight previous submissions have been musicals. Randy Ang’s hotly anticipated historical drama “1965” tells the story of Singapore’s independence from Malaysia, though the film's emphasis on the importance of ethnic harmony of the film may mean it relies too much on English (Singapore's Chinese, Indian and Malay citizens typically use English when speaking across racial lines). Multi-lingual Singapore was disqualified in 2005 for having too much English in their film. Two indie films could be dark horses: Malay-language girl power sports drama “Banting” and surveillance thriller “Camera”. Unlikely: any of the numerous local Chinese comedies (the top contenders would be “Our Sister Mambo” and “Wayang Boy”). Unlikely to premiere in time: Eric Khoo’s “In the Room” (Khoo was selected to represent Singapore three times), “Endless Day” (about the WWII romance between a Japanese soldier and a Eurasian girl) and “Sinema Paradiso” (a tribute to 1950s cinema) were all scheduled for 2015 but haven't premiered. My prediction: their preferred choice “1965” has too much English, "7 Letters" is deemed too "local" for an international audience and “Sinema Paradiso” will be prepped for next year. They’ll half-heartedly send “3688”, which debuts September 17.

5. SLOVAKIA- "Comeback" Slovakia has had a fairly uneventful film year. I think they have six or seven fiction features eligible (including two unremarkable children’s films), plus a bunch of documentaries. Unlike last year, it’s a pretty ordinary lot. No majority Slovak features competed at Karlovy Vary, which usually prominently features at least one or two Slovak films. In recent years, the Slovak Academy has preferred dreary arthouse ("Made in Ash", "My Dog Killer") and quirky documentaries rather than the engaging village dramedies they used to send (I loved “Return of the Storks”). I see four Slovak possibilities: (1)- “Comeback”, a documentary following a number of recently released inmates from prison trying to reintegrate into society, (2)- “Eva Nova”, about a once-glamorous actress trying to reconcile with her son while at the same time struggling with alcoholism, (3)- “Koza” (Berlin), a docudrama about a Romany boxer who’s fallen on hard times, and his girlfriend who wants to get an abortion. It was the only Slovak film to play at a major festival in 2015, and (4)- “So Far, So Near”, a documentary about autism by Jaroslav Vojtek, who directed their 2010 submission. With "Eva" unreleased, I think this will come down to “Koza” or “Comeback”. “Koza” is the favorite (and it is filmed in much the same style as their last three grim candidates), but I’m predicting an upset for documentary “Comeback”. Unlikely: village dramedy “Hostage”, road movie “Stanko” and another documentary (about the legacy of the Communist secret police), “Salto Mortale”.

6. SLOVENIA- "The Woods are Still Green" 
Slovenia's film industry got a shock at last year’s film awards when a documentary (“A Fight For”) about Slovenia’s 2012 version of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and a 19-minute student film (“The Springtime Sleep”) split the major awards, beating out favorites “The Tree” (Karlovy Vary 2014), about a mother and her sons, and “Inferno” (Busan; it won just two tech prizes), a violent, social drama about an unemployed man facing off against society. "The Tree" managed to get Best Actor and the Audience Award, while "Inferno" just won two tech prizes. Those two arty films were also passed over at the Cannes Film Market, where Slovenia instead chose to promote a new comedy (“Siska Deluxe”) and horror film (“Idyll”), both of which will premiere in October. So, Slovenia has quite a confused race, with no obvious frontrunner. I am going to predict they make an odd choice and send German-language WWI drama "The Woods are Still Green" by Marko Nabersnik, who directed Slovenia’s 2008 submission and their biggest-ever domestic box-office hit “Rooster’s Breakfast”. Slovenia was part of German-speaking Austria during the war. It is probably the best reviewed Slovenian film of the year, if you believe it to be a Slovenian film. In 2^nd place will be the angry, nihilistic “Inferno” (dir: Vinko Moderndorfer, who repped Slovenia in 2009) while the equally grim “The Tree” should place 3^rd. The aforementioned winner of the Festival of Slovenian Film (“A Fight For”) probably won't come into play, as the Slovenian Academy tends to be bit more mainstream than the Festival judges. Opening too late: mystery-thriller “Nightlife” (Damjan Kozole, 2003) and drama "Mother" will not be released until fall at the earliest.

7. SOUTH AFRICA- "Treurgrond" South Africa has a number of potential submissions, including an Afrikaans-language thriller by Darrell Roodt, the director of their first-ever Oscar nominee, "Yesterday”. Roodt has three films in South African cinemas this year though the other two aren't eligible. One intriguing option is “Breathing Umphefumlo” (Berlinale 2015), a Xhosa-language operatic redux of La Bohème. However, the South African Academy didn't send the acclaimed “U-Carmen eKhayelitsha” (a Xhosa-language Carmen) by the same team, which got far better reviews. Perhaps because the director is British? Afrikaans mystery “Ballade vir n’Enkeling”, a mystery based on a popular 80s television series about a missing author got strong notices from the Afrikaner community, while urban dance drama “Hear Me Move” entertained audiences, though to me it looks like just a South African version of “Step Up”. “Love the One You Love” (Busan), about love and relationships in modern-day Cape Town, was made on a micro-budget, with improvised dialogue and mostly been warmly received by critics. Two co-productions with neighboring countries that don’t compete in the Oscars (“Dias Santana” with Angola, and “Coming of Age” with Lesotho) could also contend if South Africa considers them to be domestic productions. “Necktie Youth” has played at a number of festivals, but it seems like it has too much English. Bottom line: South Africa’s Academy is likely to choose “Treurgrond”, a thriller about the true-to-life brutal attacks that terrorize South Africa’s farms and its farmers, with low-budget “Love the One You Love” its strongest competition. 

8. SPAIN- "Ma ma" Spain doesn't have as much to choose from this year as they usually do. This year's big Goya winner ("La isla minima") was eligible last year, both their films at Cannes and Berlin were filmed mostly in English and many of their leading draws at San Sebastian will not hit cinemas until October. Never fear because Oscar winning actress Penelope Cruz is here! Cruz co-starred in both of Spain's Oscar-winning films from the 1990s ("All About My Mother" and "Belle Epoque") and her "Ma ma" (which opens September 11) looks like exactly the sort of heartwarming, sad, inspiring film that Oscar loves. It's about an academic (Cruz) battling breast cancer (cancer de mama is the Spanish for breast cancer) with the support of her family. "Magical Girl" (San Sebastian, Best Picture 2014), an odd film about a man desperately trying to obtain an anime costume as a final gift for his dying daughter, is likely to get another slot on Spain's traditional three-film shortlist. The third film is a mystery to me; it could be adolescent drama "Nothing in Exchange" (Winner, Malaga Film Festival), Basque-language mystery "Loreak" (which got a rare Best Pic nomination at the Goyas), or Agustí Villaronga's "The King of Havana", which was denied permission to film in Cuba for its story of a teenager experimenting with sex, love, rum and crime during Cuba's economic collapse in the 1990s. Villaronga was selected in 2011. Although this has been a relatively weak year for Spain, they've got lots in the pipeline and will have a very strong year next year. For now, I'm confident about "Ma ma", with "Magical Girl" and "King of Havana" filling out the shortlist. 

9. SRI LANKA- "28" Sri Lanka has sent only one film in the past ten years (and only two in Oscar history) and I don’t see any indication they will send a film this year. However, they do have a number of candidates should the new government choose to re-enter the race, perhaps to promote local cinema. The most popular choice would clearly be “Maharaja Gemunu”, an impressive-looking costume drama about a renowned King which performed well in the domestic market.  However, the two films Sri Lanka sent to the Oscars were both more arthouse efforts. In that case, the favorite would probably be “28” (Rotterdam), a drama about three men transporting the body of a murder victim, who turns out to be a relative of one of the three men. “Thanha Rathi Ranga” (Between Today and Tomorrow), about three friends visiting Northern Sri Lanka after the Civil War, could also be chosen, while “The Strange Familiar” probably won’t be considered due to its LGBT-themes as homosexuality continues to be a crime in Sri Lanka. Bottom line: in the unlikely event they send a film, it will be “28”.

10. SWEDEN- "A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence" Sweden has had a slow year filled with comedies and documentaries, so there’s little doubt they would choose Venice Golden Lion winner “A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence” if the year ended today. “Pigeon” is the final film in what Variety magazine says is probably “the lowest-grossing trilogy in history”, following the soporific “Songs from the Second Floor” and "You the Living”. Although both these plotless films were terrible, they both represented Sweden at the Oscars. “Pigeon”, which Variety swears has slightly more of a plot in its absurdist vignettes than the other two films, seems likely to follow...but I’m rooting against it. Note to the Academy: Roy Andersson’s films have been sent to the Academy three times without success. AMPAS, like me, clearly has no tolerance for his dull, nearly wordless films. Now, Sweden’s last film to get an Oscar nomination was Kay Pollak's sleeper musical drama "As It Is In Heaven” (the Swedes have been shortlisted three times since then, but never nominated) . Miles better than the similarly themed “Les choristes”  that same year, Pollak has now made a sequel- “Heaven on Earth”- which will be released in September. Choosing a sequel as your Oscar candidate is risky- most Oscar voters can't remember the first one- but I would love to see Pollak (who at least has a proven track record at the Oscars) getting this instead of a fourth failure for Andersson. Another potential dark horse is Andreas Ohman’s upcoming romantic drama “Odödliga” (premiering August 21). Ohman’s “Simple Simon” was a buzzy late release in 2010 and made it all the way to the Final Nine. There's also Berlinale adolescent drama “My Skinny Sister” about a girl going through figure skating and eating disorders (I fell asleep at a screening after a few minutes but admittedly didn’t give it much of a chance). I’m desperately trying to find a way to make a prediction against Andersson, but he’ll probably get it. Sigh. Strongest alternate is “Heaven on Earth”. 

11. SWITZERLAND- "La vanité" Switzerland would be easier to predict if only Barbet Schroeder’s “Amnesia” were eligible. The Oscar-nominated director is a Swiss citizen and his new film (his first in seven years) got good reviews in Cannes and will open the Swiss Films section in Locarno. Set in Spain with two German lead characters, much is made of the fact that the German woman insists on speaking only in English. I believe the film will be over 50% in English and won’t qualify (like last year’s “Clouds of Sils Maria”). For the past five years, Switzerland has chosen a film from either Berlinale or Locarno. That would appear to bode well for “Dora, or the Sexual Neuroses of our Parents” (Berlin) and “Pause” (Locarno), which faced off against each other at the 2015 Swiss Film Awards, where they both lost to “The Circle”. But neither “Dora”, about a mentally unstable woman who becomes pregnant, nor musician rom-com “Pause” has really wowed the critics. “Unlikely Heroes”, a comedy about a bored divorcée who finds meaning in life when she volunteers at a center for asylum seekers, has also gotten mixed reviews but it’s a definite crowd-pleaser. I loved the film and it won the Audience Award at Locarno 2014. It’s similar humor to “Late Bloomers” which Switzerland selected in 2007. Other contenders include “La vanité”, a dark French-language comedy (co-starring Spain’s Carmen Maura) about an elderly man seeking outside help to commit suicide (from a Spanish nurse and a male prostitute from Eastern Europe), “War”, about a sensitive boy forced to spend the summer working hard on a remote farm, and “Heimatland”, a series of ten shorts envisioning a dark future for Switzerland. And because the Swiss have chosen documentaries two years in a row, let’s throw in a pair of immigration-themed films, namely “Iraqi Odyssey”, a moving documentary tracking the director’s Iraqi family who have been dispersed around the world by decades of emigration and war, and “Shelter”, about migrants in Switzerland. Previously selected directors Rolando Colla (“Seven Days”) and Xavier Koller (“A Bell for Ursli”) have new films but they won’t prefer until the fall. Final predictions: hardly any of these films seem likely but I’m predicting “La vanité” pulls this off. The more grim and depressing “War” (Chrieg) has the next best chance, followed by documentary “Iraqi Odyssey” and comedy “Unlikely Heroes”. As much as I’d like to predict an unlikely victory for “Unlikely Heroes”, I’d say that’s unlikely to happen. “Dora” rounds out the Top Five choices. UPDATE: Switzerland announced their seven finalists. I’m pleased to note that four of my Top Five are on the list- “Vanité”, “War”, “Iraqi Odyssey” and “Dora”, which have been joined by “Pause”. Also on the list: “Bouboule”, a comedy about a fat kid (no chance to be selected) and “No Place to Stay”, a documentary about the Roma that I admittedly have never heard of. Out of luck: “Unlikely Heroes”. My prediction remains the same. 

12. TAIWAN- "The Assassin" Let’s review. Since 2000, the only films from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to make it past the longlist stage were “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”, “The Grandmaster”, “Hero” and “Seediq Bale”. All four were artsy Chinese-language epics with tons of martial arts fighting and close attention to cinematography, color and historical detail. Taiwan thus has the easiest decision of any major country this year and will surely send Hsiao-hsien Hou’s gorgeous 9^th century epic “The Assassin”. Eight years in the making, “The Assassin” has probably gotten the best reviews of Hou’s career and is also more accessible than his earlier arthouse films. "The Assassin" won Best Director at the Cannes Film Festival for its story of a female assassin torn between love and duty. “The Assassin” will bowl over the competition which was anyway weak this year. Chang Tso-chi’s grim “Thanatos Drunk” (Berlinale), set in the back-alleys of Taipei, dominated the the awards at the Taipei FIlm Festival, but it got mixed reviews internationally. Cho has been chosen before, and so has Sylvia Chang, but her slow-paced “Murmur of the Hearts” (aka Nian Nian), about reunited siblings on a small Taiwanese island, was also not beloved with critics. Better reviewed was cerebral high-school heist comedy “Meeting Mr. Sun”, which won Best Screenplay at the Golden Horse Awards but I don’t think it's very likely either. This will be an easy win for “Assassin”. 

13. TAJIKISTAN- "Tasfiya" Tajikistan last submitted a film in 2005 when they were disqualified after the official print of their film failed to arrive in time. Since then, they’ve shown no interest in the competition even during those rare years when they had suitable candidates (like Nosir Saidov’s bittersweet “True Noon”). This year’s most acclaimed Tajik film (Nosir Saidov’s “The Teacher”) premiered in Dushanbe slightly too early to qualify. They probably won't participate but they do have candidates. They had four local films (probably a record) playing at the biannual Didor International Film Festival which was held in Dushanbe in October 2014. And according to an interesting new article, Tajiki cinema has been getting a boost in funding lately. If they return, I predict they send “Tasfiya” a surreal fantasy-drama by a new female helmer, about a couple living in a small village under Soviet times.

14. TANZANIA- "Daddy's Wedding" The Tanzanians sent an obscure Swahili-language film called “Maangamizi” in 2001, but have been silent ever since. Their only really successful film of the year was critically acclaimed short film, "Fish of the Land”. The Tanzanians had quite a few local feature films in competition at the Zanzibar International Film Festival this year, but most seem to have been released the previous year, including "Kutakapokucha", which won Best Tanzanian Film and "Mr. Kadamanja" (which won the People's Choice Award). For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Daddy's Wedding", a comedy-drama which won two of the seven awards in the local awards section (Director and Cinematography). They also have One Month Date”, a drama about the dating problems of a single mother, but I’m sure they won’t send anything this year.

15. THAILAND- "Pheun Keed Sen Tai" Thailand doesn’t have much to choose from this year. Apichatpong Weerasethakul had another slow, pretentious, lugubrious movie (“Cemetery of Splendor”) at Cannes this year, but it didn’t win any awards and nobody likes his films in Thailand anyway. After Palme d’Or winner “Uncle Boonmee” failed to get Thailand an Oscar nomination, a second chance seems unlikely (they really don't like him in Thailand). Of the major 2014 releases honored at the Thai Oscars (the “Subhannahongsa Awards”, or Golden Swans) this year, only two are eligible- documentary “The Master”, about the man who introduced arthouse films to Thailand by pirating them, and romantic comedy “I Fine Thank You Love You”, a standard rom-com. 2015 releases have been even more silly than usual. In fact, Thailand probably has fewer good options than any major country this year. Now having said that, the Thai always find something to send. Unlike most countries, they have no prejudice when it comes to genre, choosing popular romance (2014, 2009), horror films (2013), action movies (2012, 2006), arthouse (2010, 2003), musicals (2002), costume dramas (2011, 2007) and LGBT (2008), which is quite refreshing. But everything this year seems to have a major handicap…LGBT drama “How to Win At Checkers” (Berlin) has an American director. “King Naresuan 6” is visually spectacular and the end of a long series of films (it was originally a trilogy) which reportedly bankrupted its studio, but the history-in-progress plotline will be hopelessly lost on Western viewers. Expensive “Khrua Toh”, the biopic of a revered Buddhist monk, will showcase Thai culture and religion well, but the trailer looks melodramatic and dull by Western standards, and American audiences won't have a clue who he is. Horror-comedy “The Black Death” is supposed to be loads of fun but a period film about the living dead is hardly Oscar’s cup of tea. So, I’m going on a limb and choosing "Pheun Keed Sen Tai" (เพื่อนขีดเส้นใต้), an omnibus of three films by independent directors exploring friendships and relationships. It has no English title yet, but literally means "Underlining Friends". I’ll put “King Naresuan 6” in second place, with “Khrua Toh”, “Postcards from Nowhere” (about a postcard that brings interconnected characters together) and “Cemetery of Splendor” rounding out the Top Five. 

16. TUNISIA- "Tunisian Spring" Tunisia hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2002- way before the chaos of the Arab Spring. This year, Tunisian features were completely absent from the Abu Dhabi Film Festival and they sent a film from last year (“Challat de Tunis”) to Cairo and Busan. That leaves three choices: (1)-  “Bidoun 2”, the only local feature in competition at the country’s Carthage International Film Festival, (2)- “Tunisian Spring”, which represented the country at FESPACO, and (3)- the three-hour dark horse “Looking for Muhyiddin”, which combines elements of documentary and fiction. “Tunisian Spring”, a drama about the lives of four young people set against the backdrop of the 2011 Arab Spring, should be considered the front-runner. Female helmer Raja Amari is very much owed. Her film “Satin Rouge” got Oscar buzz way back in 2002 but when the Tunisian committee met (for the first time in 7 years), they picked an obscure film nobody had ever heard of instead of the feminist "Satin". Hopefully, they will send her new film and not snub her again for “Bidoun 2”, about two itinerant young people who meet during the political turmoil of 2013 (post-Arab Spring). I’m predicting (and pulling for) Amari and “Tunisian Spring”

17. TURKEY- "Mustang" Turkey's most acclaimed film of the year is clearly “Mustang”, dubbed by many as a Turkish “Virgin Suicides”. The plot is about five sisters whose innocent horseplay with the neighborhood boys sets off a local scandal and results in a loss of the girl’s freedom. It won a small award at Cannes and the Grand Prize at the much smaller Odessa Film Festival.  Despite creeping Islamization in the government, Turkey is still fairly modern and liberal so it's feminist themes shouldn't present a problem as they might in other Muslim countries. It’s main competitor is “The Miracle”, a tearjerker/romance about a city teacher whose arrival has a profound effect on a small village community in 1960s Turkey. Director Mahsun Kirmizigül was selected in 2009. The Istanbul Film Festival usually presents us with some good options, but most Turkish filmmakers boycotted this year’s event due to censorship complaints. The most likely option from there is “Ivy” (Sundance), about a group of sailors forced to stay aboard a ship’s final journey when the company goes bankrupt. At the Antalya Golden Oranges, the two big winners were a pair of family dramas, namely “Kuzu” (Best Picture), about a family preparing for their son’s circumcision feast and “Sivas”, a youth film about a boy who rescues a fighting dog. Other Turkish options include “Bahara Yolculuk”, about a teacher who dreams of opening a school in Kyrgyzstan, “Eksik”, a political historical film about life after the 1980 military coup, “Entanglement” (Sarajevo), about two laborer brothers whose relationship is strained by their mother’s death and the appearance of a woman who comes between them, “Limonata”, a comedic film about two brothers getting to know each other on a road trip and “Two Hearts as One”, about two lovers separated by WWII who spend half a century trying to reunite....I predict “Mustang” will get this with “Miracle” a close second and “Two Hearts as One”, “Bahara Yolculuk” and “Ivy” rounding out the Top Five choices for Turkey. 

18. UKRAINE- "Song of Songs" Ukraine had a great film year in 2014, but civil conflict, the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of several Ukrainian provinces by pro-Russian forces have understandably led to drastic cuts to arts and cultural programming, including cinema. Production on many films has simply stopped mid-way and it’s unclear which local films will be finished and released. The biggest Ukrainian hit of the year- “The Battle for Sevastopol”- would be a controversial choice for several reasons. Billed as the first (and last) big-budget co-production with Russia, the film was made in Ukraine’s autonomous Republic of Crimea (now annexed illegally by Russia) in the Russian language by a Ukrainian director in cooperation with a Russian studio. Despite worries that the film, about a celebrated female Soviet sniper and war heroine who made a famous visit to the United States at the height of the Cold War, would have trouble being finished and/or released in either country, it has, in fact, been a surprise success in both Russia and Ukraine. Because of the political symbolism of that film, however, I think Ukraine will instead opt for one of two other films:  "Maidan” (Cannes 2014) is an acclaimed documentary by Sergei Loznitsa ("My Joy") about the 2013-2014 protests that forced out Ukrainian President Yanukovych, while “Song of Songs” (Karlovy Vary) is the story of star-crossed young lovers living in a conservative Jewish shletl community in pre-WWII Ukraine. It won Best Ukrainian Film at the scaled-down Odessa Film Festival and has been praised for its attention to detail in portraying a community now mostly lost to history and emigration. Strong 2015 contenders like 1920s historical drama “The Occupaton” and “The Nest of the Turtle Dove”, about a woman who goes to work in Italy to send money home to her family, were still in production as of May and appear unlikely to be released in time. I had "Maidan" down as my prediction but am switching to "Song of Songs". 

19. UNITED KINGDOM- "Trash" The UK used to send mostly Welsh films and IMDB says they have two new ones this year- “Yr Ymadawiad” (The Passing), a Twilight Zone-style drama about a car crash, and “Under Milk Wood”, starring Rhys Ifans and singer Charlotte Church, which was made in both English and Welsh versions. In any case, Britain is almost certain to send “Trash”, a Portuguese-language drama about three youths living in the Brazilian favelas, which is directed by three-time Best Director Oscar nominee Stephen Daldry (“The Hours”, “The Reader”, “Billy Elliott”). Often compared to “Slumdog Millionaire”, it’s said to be a very Hollywood version of a foreign film, and likely to please the Academy. A final dark horse is “Gemma Bovery” , a majority French romantic comedy with a French-Luxembourgian director, based on a British novel and with a British lead (Gemma Arterton, “Quantum of Solace”) and which was made with the support of the British Film Institute. But Daldry's involvement and the baity "kids in peril" plotline should make this an easy win for him. Other foreign-language productions from Britain like “We Will Sing” (in Lithuanian) and “The Anglistanis” (in Hindi) are out of luck. Count on Daldry, with "Under Milk Wood" the lead challenger. 

20. URUGUAY- "A Moonless Night" (Una noche sin luna) Little Uruguay has had a fairly slow year but, as usual, they have some droll tragicomedies they could send to the Oscars. This year, I believe they have five eligible features, plus some documentaries. The directors of their 2010 and 2011 submissions, the producer of their 2013 submission and the winner of the 2009 Silver Berlin Bear (probably Uruguay’s best-ever finish at a Class A Festival) are all back with new movies and there’s also a pair of documentaries (“Tus padres volveran”, about the children of political dissidents who return to Uruguay to rejoin relatives while their parents remain in exile, and “El hombre Nuevo”, about the life of a transgendered Uruguayan) that could contend, though Uruguay tends to prefer comedy. Unlike most countries, three-fourths of Uruguay's submissions were comedies (though I didn't find "Whisky" or "A Useful Life" very funny). I think Uruguay will end up choosing between "A Moonless Night” (Una noche sin luna), about three lonely people visiting a small town on New Year’s Eve (Uruguayan summer!), and the yet-to-be-released “The Apostate”, a quirky co-production with Spain about the absurdities of religious faith.  The trailer for “Moonless Night” looks like a typical Uruguayan submission…lots of tragicomedy and quiet humor. “The Apostate” looks much more intriguing, but I have no idea whether it’s good or not, and it's tentative release date is in October, meaning it would probably need a special qualifying release. Perhaps next year.... In third place: transgender documentary “El hombre Nuevo” (Uruguay is probably the most progressive country in Latin America on LGBT rights), with footballer dramedy “El Cinco” and horror film “Dios Local” (rock musicians confronting their greatest fears in a mine shaft!) rounding out the Top Five possibilities.

21. VENEZUELA- "Dauna" Venezuela made it to the 9-film Oscar shortlist for the first time ever last year for historical drama “Libertador”. They didn’t make the Final Five, but it showed that Venezuelan cinema is on the rise. Neighbor and rival Colombia is now the only country in South America’s “Big Six” that hasn’t advanced to the next round. At this year’s Merida Festival for Venezuelan Film, the two big winners were jet-black beauty pageant comedy “3 Bellezas” (Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, plus two small prizes) and village drama “Dauna, Who Leads the River” (Jury Prize, Press Prize plus three small prizes). I personally can’t wait to see “3 Bellezas”, which plays fast and loose with Venezuela’s national obsession with beauty pageants. It’s about a mom who will do absolutely anything to make sure her teenaged daughter wins…think “Drop Dead Gorgeous”, “Honey Boo Boo” and “Serial Mom” all mixed into one. However, the Venezuelan Academy has recently shown a preference for films that are grim and serious and they may feel more confident now that their pick of the serious “Libertador” over comedy “Bad Hair” has been vindicated. “Dauna” is about an indigenous Warao woman torn between her village’s traditional ways versus the prospect of utilizing her modern education in the city. The film has some relationship with the Berlin Film Festival (maybe it got funding there?) and is the favorite to represent Venezuela this year....though I’m still hoping for “3 Beauties”. Four other films won awards at the Venezuelan Film Festival and could be chosen if “Beauties” is too silly and “Dauna” is too dour. The dark horse is “Espejos” (Best First Work), a psychological thriller telling six interrelated stories. Unlikely but possible: 1950s coming-of-age drama “Travesia” (which won the Audience Award) and period drama “Gaspar Mendoza’s Hell” (Best Actor) about a family dealing with the illness of their daughter after surviving Venezuela’s brutal 19th century War for Independence. I’d rather see “KM 72”, a modern-day Venezuelan “Rashomon”, but that left the Festival empty-handed. Here's hoping for "Beauties", but I think I'll be disappointed.

22. VIETNAM- "Children of the Village" Vietnam has a number of interesting choices this year. As usual, the Vietnamese Academy will need to choose between the dull, old-fashioned films from their National Film Studio (which is what they’ve done lately) and the more independent and adventurous arthouse films that represent Vietnam abroad (which is what they used to do). Of course, their third choice is not to choose anything at all- the last two years they’ve opted not to send a film to the Oscars. The most critically acclaimed Vietnamese film of the year is clearly “Flapping in the Middle of Nowhere” (Venice Critics Award, 2014) but although it did screen in Vietnam, I’m skeptical the conservative Vietnamese Academy will choose a film that highlights social problems like abortion. The same goes for Berlinale drama “Big Father, Small Father and Other Stories” about the quirky residents of an overpopulated slum. Three films shared Best Picture honors at this year’s state-sponsored Golden Kite Awards, namely “Rise”, an action-drama about the shocking rise of a female gangster, “Paradise in Heart”, about a love triangle involving a bisexual ex-con, and rural drama “The Children of the Village”. The first two winners may indicate that the stodgy Vietnamese are loosening up a bit! But unfortunately, I’m still going to predict they choose “Children of the Village”- the “safest” and most conservative film in the bunch. In 2^nd place: “Farewell, Berlin Wall”, an action-drama shopped at the Cannes Film Market about a Vietnamese woman living in Germany in the waning days of the Cold War who ends up kidnapped. In 3^rd place: festival fave “Flapping in the Middle of Nowhere”.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely debutantes from this group of countries are UGANDA, which has “Boda Boda Thieves” (mostly in Swahili), a local take on “The Bicycle Thief” or “Beijing Bicycle”, about an impoverished family whose livelihood depends on a bicycle which has been stolen; and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ “Dolphin” (Dubai), about the lives of a young man and his divorced parents living in the remote eastern Emirate of Ras-al-Khaimah. “Thieves” has played at festivals but I don’t believe it’s been distributed in Uganda. Also from Dubai, YEMEN’s “I Am Nojoom, 10 and Divorced” beat films from all over the Arab world to win Best Arab Film at the Dubai Film Festival, but probably has not screened in war-torn Yemen. English-speaking TRINIDAD & TOBAGO could send “Haiti Bride”, a film in Haitian Creole about a woman who returns to her country to find the husband she left behind in the chaos of the 2010 earthquake. The Pacific kingdom of TONGA made their first-ever feature film- “When the Man went South”- in 2014, but I’m not certain it screened at home in Tonga. RWANDA’s acclaimed “Things of the Aimless Wanderer” (Sundance) seems to be mostly in  English.

NEXT:
A look at last year's race