WESTERN EUROPE PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here's the last batch of countries from Western Europe, including CYPRUS, which has promised to send a film this year for the first time. 

Austria, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have already announced their candidates, while the Netherlands has published a list of the six films that have registered. Denmark, Norway, Portugal and Sweden have announced official shortlists, and there is also a rumored Spanish "longlist" floating around. France and Spain are expected to announce shortlists in the coming weeks. 

Austria- Every year, there’s one country that announces their submission before I’ve had a chance to research it….This year, that was Austria, which announced B&W Berlinale Best Actress winner “Rose”, starring Sandra Huller, as their submission. I probably would have predicted “Four Minus Three” (also from Berlin) but we’ll never know. “Rose”, a 17^th century period drama about a woman (Huller) posing as a male soldier, is certainly a very strong choice and director Markus Schleinzer has come close to representing Austria in the past ("Michael" is particularly good). I’m also excited to see “Blood Countess”, starring Isabelle Huppert as the legendary (vampire?) serial killer Countess Bathory despite wildly uneven reviews.

Belgium- “Coward" UPDATE: I wrote this earlier this week, before "Coward" was selected as their official entry. 

The Kingdom of Belgium has a more complicated selection process than most countries since they have two distinct Film Associations that run themselves basically as two different countries – one based in French-speaking Wallonia and one in Dutch-speaking Flanders. To start with, each association forms its own Oscar selection jury. A Flemish jury watches the Flemish films and the Walloon jury watches the French films (there are quite a few films that are bilingual or mixed productions….I have no idea how they deal with those) and each association then has the right to submit one or two films to the finals, where a mixed national jury selects the final Belgian candidate. Unlike most Western European countries, Belgium does not reveal the names of the finalists. 

This year, I expect the Flemish films will be Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” (Cannes) and lesbian drama “Julian”, which dominated the Flemish Film Awards, though they could easily replace “Julian” with “The Soundman”, about a young Jewish man in 1940 Belgium....but “Coward” is the clear Flemish frontrunner.  From the French-speaking region, I expect the finalists will be Michael Roskam’s “Le faux soir” (Roskam is Flemish but the film is in French and the WBImages website indicates it's a majority Wallon production) and “We Believe You”, which swept this year’s Magritte Awards......though it could also be “Adam’s Interest” (by the director of the Oscar-shortlisted but largely forgotten “Playground”) or “Diane in the Loop” (Venice)….So it looks like it’s Dhont versus Roskam! Both men have been nominated for Oscars before (“Close” and “Bullhead”) and both are truly "national" directors, working in both Dutch and French. “Coward” has all the buzz for its World War I story of wartime same-sex comradery and has gotten great reviews at Cannes. “Le faux soir” is a baity WWII "true story", about how a newspaper in Nazi-occupied Belgium printed fake editions to fool Nazi authorities, but it has two main challenges – it hasn’t premiered yet so we don’t know how good it is…and it would have to arrange a qualifying release for the Oscars. So for me, it’s in a close second place (and could opt for next year), with custody drama “We  Believe You” in a distant third. 

CYPRUS- “Hold Onto Me” Though it’s a lot bigger than Luxembourg or Malta (or Iceland or Montenegro), Cyprus has long been the only EU country that didn’t have a recognized committee for the Oscars. Apparently, local filmmakers have been complaining for years, and the Cypriot Ministry of Culture finally did the necessary paperwork and will enter this year. Most of their films are co-productions with Greece but they seem to have six eligible films at festivals this year. The two obvious frontrunners are thriller “Broken Vein” and coming-of-age drama “Hold Onto Me”. “Broken Vein” is a bigger movie, but “Hold Onto Me”, about an 11-year old trying to reconnect with her estranged mother, won the Audience Award at Sundance (a huge achievement for Cyprus) as well as Best Cypriot Film at the local festival. It’s also got Ministry backing while “Broken Vein"'s director has been based in Greece for years (see GREECE). Welcome to Hollywood, Cyprus!

 

Denmark- “What Lies Between Us” AMPAS loves Denmark. Last year was a rare year that they weren’t shortlisted…and yet they still won an Oscar when “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (deservedly) won Best Documentary Feature instead. Like Norway and Sweden, Denmark always releases a three-film shortlist. I correctly predicted that “What Lies Between Us” and “Woman Unknown” would make the list easily, with half a dozen other titles trying to get that final slot. I was pretty sure it would be one of five options- uncomfortable family dramas “Cute” (San Sebastian) and “The Guest” (Karlovy Vary) starring Trine Dyrholm, plus Yugoslav immigration drama “Home” (Rotterdam), documentary “Rescue” (Toronto), and gay Danish/Faroese horror-drama “No Rest for the Wicked”. In the end, I predicted “The Guest” would get the final place on the shortlist but instead it went to "Home". 

Denmark will announce its final candidate on September 25. Both Danish frontrunners are hoping for automatic entries to the Oscars before that, at Venice (“Woman Unknown”, September 12) and Toronto (“What Lies Between Us”, September 20) but that's statistically unlikely, so one of these two will surely represent the Kingdom this year. May el-Toukhy is one of the few Danish directors to strike out at the Oscars in recent years - “Queen of Hearts” was good but it was one of just three Danish films since 2010 that completely struck out.....so they may hesitate to give her a second chance. I’m pretty sure this will go to “What Lies Between Us”, about a middle-class family trying to protect their underage son when he is accused of participating in a terrible sexual assault. If it wins in Toronto, then el-Toukhy’s period drama, about a post-WWII nanny harboring a secret, will go. "Home" is extremely unlikely.  

Faroe Islands- "Birita" Cyprus has promised to enter the race this year. Could we also see a debut from the Faroe Islands (pop: 57,000)? The Faroe Islands is a country within the Kingdom of Denmark. It has a political status similar to Greenland, with its own language, currency, flag, and sports teams. Last year, they began to submit films for the Nordic Film Prize (where each country is allowed one film) and unexpectedly won the award. This year's Nordic Film Prize candidate from the Faroe Islands is a documentary called "Birita", about a theatrical family who decide to make a film starring their mother, who suffers from Alzheimers.

Finland- “Tell Everyone” Finland has a wide-open race with six previously submitted directors in the running: Alli Haapasalo (selected in 2022), Klaus Härö (2003, 2005, 2009 and 2015), Antti Jokinen (2012), Dome Karukoski (2008 and 2017), Aleksi Salmenperä (2004 and 2007) and Selma Vilhunen (2019).....plus some other very good options. I think the five frontrunners (in alphabetical order) are: (1)- “Blue Baby” (Härö), a soon-to-be-released drama about a nurse torn between caring for a sick infant and her commitmetto a labor strike, (2)- “Hippo Love” (Karukoski), a comedy-drama about an unhappily married man connecting with a beautiful woman at a wedding, (3)- “The Kidnapping of the President”, a black comedy about a far-right terror group kidnapping the new Finnish president in 1930, (4)- “The Reading Club of Kabul”, a documentary about Afghan women, and (5)-  “Tell Everyone” (Haapasalo), the true story of Finnish women cruelly exiled to a remote island in the 1890s for routine female medical issues. The only Finnish film at a major film festival this year was horror-drama “Nightborn” (co-starring Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter movies!). It competed in Berlin but won’t be released until November (and has a lot of English?) so it’s not eligible. Finland picked a fun comedy last year but this year I think this will come down to the two most serious entries- “Blue Baby” and “Tell Everyone”. Both directors have been picked before and the decision will probably come down to how well “Blue Baby” is received when it premieres in early September. “Tell Everyone” is supposed to be very good but it's said to be a very grim, depressing and difficult film….In the end, I think that’s the one Finland will choose. 

France- "La Gradiva" France, as always, has a difficult decision. And, as always, no matter what they choose, people will get angry at them. That's what happens when you have the world's greatest film industry in the non-English-speaking world. This year, everyone is watching to see if they will pick Cannes Grand Prix winner "Minotaur", a Russian film made by two-time Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. If they do, it will be France's second submission in a row made by a foreign director, and its third film in a row not in the French language. For French directors making great films, that has to sting. 

It's very possible they'll pick "Minotaur"....It's eligible. But I think they'll want to reward a French director this year. Ironically, the favorite this year was Iranian director Asghar Farhadi and megastar Isabelle Huppert...but "Parallel Tales" flopped with critics so that's likely out of the running. For actual French films, I hear people talking about "Good Little Soldier" (Venice), "Iron Boy", "La Gradiva" (Cannes), "A Man of His Time" (Cannes), "Moulin" (Cannes; by Hungarian Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes) "The Rays and Shadows" and the two-part deGaulle biopics. Of these options, "La Gradiva" and "Of Rays and Shadows" seem to have the best reviews and the best chance. Reviews for "Moulin" aren't good enough (and if they're going to pick a foreign director, they might as well choose Minotaur)...."Iron Boy" is a (very well-reviewed) animated film and they'd have a hard time defending that over "Minotaur" too.....The biopics of anti-American deGaulle will be of no interest to American audiences. "Rays and Shadows" is a baity film during Nazi-occupied France and the director has been shortlisted to represent France before....It will be again. But reviews for the odd "La Gradiva" are exceptionally strong. 

Germany-  "Everytime" Well, I got this one right!....I wrote the following analysis shortly after Germany announced their shortlist earlier this month: 

On August 17, Germany announced that 10 (or 11) films were under consideration to represent Germany. The eleventh film is “Minotaur”, a Russian film made in Latvia by a director exiled to France, with mostly French producers, Russian principal crew and Latvian junior crew. Although I sympathize with exiled film directors, Zvyagintsev fled to France...."Minotaur" is not a German film and it should not be allowed to represent Germany. German Films announced that its spot on the list was “provisional” while they wait for a determination of its eligibility. I think AMPAS will tell them that France should submit it instead…but they’re inconsistent on that point. Anyway, by the rules it’s not eligible so here's my ranking of the ten actual German films on the list:

Strongly in the Running-

1. “Everytime” (Winner, Cannes UCR)

2. “Oh This Unspeakable Void” (Bronze Medal at the German Film Awards behind “Sound of Falling” and “Yellow Letters”)

3. “Prosecution” (Winner, Berlin Panorama)

Dark Horses-        

4. “Visitation” (by the 87-year Oscar-winning director of “The Tin Drum” in 1980)

5. “No Good Men” (Opening Film at Berlin)

In the Middle-          

6. “Dreamed Adventure” (Jury Prize, Cannes)

7. “The Trial of Hein” (Berlin)

8. “23,000 Lives” (Netflix)

Happy to Be on the List-      

9. “You Believe in Angels, Herr Drowak?” (Shanghai)

10. “Babystar” (Toronto)

Overall, it’s a very strong list but let’s just look at the top half: (in alphabetical order)

-          “Everytime” arguably has the best reviews on the list (it has the highest Letterboxd score...and that includes “Minotaur”). I understand it's about a family’s guilt over some sort of terrible accident (I am trying to read as little about the film as possible before I see it) and it won the Un Certain Regard category at Cannes. But working against it?….it’s a majority Austrian film and people say it’s fucking confusing and very Oscar “unfriendly”.

-        “No Good Men”, the only genuine comedy on the list (though it’s really a textbook example of a “tragicomedy)….This “Afghan rom-com” was made by Shahrbanoo Sadat, a feminist Afghan filmmaker who fled to Germany in 2021 and who made this film entirely in Germany. I absolutely loved it…and I would love to see this film represent Germany (or, preferably, Afghanistan) though it’s probably a little too light. Still, I encourage people to search it out. I laughed, I cried, I came away satisfied  and curious to know more about the situation in Afghanistan. 

-        “Oh This Unspeakable Void”, another so-called “tragicomedy”...."Void" is about a 20-year old music student moving in with his eccentric grandparents. It is the crowdpleasing choice and it has been a critical and box-office success. While Germany usually goes “heavy” at the Oscars, lighter films like “I’m Your Man” have been submitted and shortlisted. But it’s tough for comedies to compete.

-        “Prosecution”, an angry courtroom drama, won Berlin’s Panorama section for its story of a German woman of Korean descent facing off against racism by taking far-right activists to court. Reviews have been very good though I’ve heard it’s confusing for those who aren't familiar with Germany’s court system. (Sounds like the underrated “I Just Didn’t Do It”, which repped Japan in 2007).

      Finally, “Visitation” is Germany's “old-school” option. First of all, the plot sounds like an AI-generated version of “German Oscar nominee”; it follows seven decades of German history through the lens of Nazism, World War II, Communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall. 87-year old Volker Schlöndorff won Germany its first Oscar nearly fifty years ago for “The Tin Drum” and this is likely his final film. Will sentimentality lead Germany to pick it over better-reviewed films? In the 80s and 90s, this sort of film would have been nominated easily…Could a large number of older AMPAS voters still get it to the shortlist? 

    Some are predicting Bulgarian crime drama "The Dreamed Adventure". It admittedly won the Cannes Jury Prize but reviews are the most divisive of any film on the list. 

        This is a tough one! But I’m predicting “Everytime”. It could easily be “Unspeakable Void” or “Prosecution” if they want a genuinely German (not Austrian) film.  

Greece- “Patty is Such a Girly Name” So, Greece established their national Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) in 2010. Since then, the Iris award for Best Picture and the Greek Oscar submission matched up 9 out of 16 times. It went to an Iris Best Picture nominee six more times (including “Murderess”, which was the default winner when Iris winner “Animal” very publicly boycotted the Oscar selection), while in 2019 it unexpectedly went to the little-known winner of the Iris for Best Documentary Feature (“When Tomatoes Met Wagner”). In 2026, sports drama “Patty is Such a Girly Name” dominated the Iris Awards, making it the clear favorite. Fellow Best Picture nominees “Beachcomber”, “Bearcave”, “Broken Vein” and “Life in a Beat” all won major awards, so they all technically have a chance. With the possible exception of “A Day in the Life of Jo” - soon to premiere in Venice - I don’t see any other serious options for Greece. Sports drama “Patty”, about a young female judo athlete, won the top three awards (Best Picture, Director and Screenplay) so it’s definitely the favorite – though “Knifer”, “Son of Sofia” and “Suntan” did too and they were not selected. Thriller “Broken Vein” (also a possibility for CYPRUS) actually looks much more accessible than “Patty” and director Economides (a Greek Cypriot who has lived in Greece for decades) has come close before…So each of these films have a 50-50 shot….”Life in a Beat”, about a down-on-her-luck pregnant woman, and “A Day in the Life of Jo”, about a teenager’s last day of life, are real dark horses, while "Beachcomber" (a boat-builder) and "Bearcave" ( a queer drama) are likely out of their league. 

GREENLAND- “Our Flag” Greenland returned to the Oscars last year after a 13-year break with “Walls: Akinni Inuk”, a quiet but really wonderful prison documentary that I highly recommend. This year, they could send “Our Flag” (CPX:DOX), a spare 51-minute documentary about the origins of the Greenlandic flag, which was adopted in 1985 as a sign of the territory’s budding nationalism. An even better choice would be entertaining football documentary “No Place for Football”, although the directors are American. 

Iceland- “The Ground Beneath Our Feet” Little Iceland is the only Nordic country that has never sent a documentary to the Oscars. That’s likely to change this year because the two frontrunners are “Amongst the Birds” (CPH: DOX), about an elderly couple and their friends taking care of a huge colony of migrating ducks, and “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”, a popular documentary about the residents of Reykjavik’s oldest nursing home (It also won Best Documentary at the 2026 Eddas). It’s difficult to know which of these two they’ll like better but I’m predicting “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”. Egalitarian, feminist Iceland has only chosen one female-helmed film in the past 30 years….maybe that will help “Ground”? If they simply don’t like documentaries, they will have to go with horror-thriller “Disturbed” or (and I really hope not) Hlynur Palmason’s weird new 61-minute “Joan of Arc” a sort of companion piece to the dull “The Love That Remains” about kids shooting arrows at a statue (?!). 

IRELAND- “A Quiet Love” Ireland starting sending films to the Oscars in 2007 and have submitted more or less regularly since 2014. Irish-language film production is up and the majority of their submissions were made in Irish, although they’ve also submitted Irish-made documentaries made in Lebanon, Palestine and Ukraine, and fiction features set in Cuba and the former Yugoslavia. This year, they have three good Irish-language options- “Aontas”, an all-women heist noir thriller told backwards…..murder mystery “The Drowned”....and “A Quiet Love”, a documentary about three deaf couples and the first-ever film made in Irish Sign Language. Their fourth option, “The Siege of Paradise” (Tribeca), is an Italian-language documentary about over-tourism in Cinque Terre....but it was made by the same director as last year…and most countries like to spread the wealth. I’m personally hoping they choose one of the thrillers in the beautiful Irish language….but I’m expecting “A Quiet Love” will be Garry Keane’s third doc to go to the Oscars for Ireland, following "Gaza" and the Oscar-worthy "In the Shadow of Beirut". “Aontas”, which looks fascinating, is the one I most want to see. 

Italy- "La grazia" I'm waiting until Italy announces its longlist, sometime around September 17. But I have a feeling it could be Paolo Sorrentino's "La grazia"....However, several big-name directors (Nanni Moretti, Gianni Amelio, Mario Martone) and others have new films premiering in Venice and rolling into Italian cinemas in the coming weeks. 

UPDATE, September 23- So, Italy released their "longlist" which, as usual, is the longest of any country - 21 films. Of these 21, only seven look like they'll have any impact so let's look at this "top third"- (1)- "Children of the Monkey" (Venice), "Per te", "Primavera" (Toronto '25), "Serpenti" (Venice Spotlight), "The Spiral" (Venice/Toronto), "Sweetheart" (Locarno '25) and "Three Goodbyes" (Toronto '25). I was planning to predict relationship drama "Three Goodbyes", which arguably has the best reviews (3.72 on Letterboxd...by far the highest of the group) and a recognizable star in Alba Rohrwacher, but the film has a (well-known) Spanish director and Italy is one of those countries that I think is still sensitive about nationality. So, I've decided to go with "Children of the Monkey", about a man with a handicapped son who develops a relationship with a nephew and deals with the guilt that comes with enjoying a "normal" kid better. But dark psychological thriller "The Spiral" and period drama "Primavera" are also possible. 

Luxembourg- “Child (Le refuge)” Little Luxembourg is most proud of its role as a “co-producer” of major films (including “It Was Just an Accident” last year) but they also produce a small number of majority Luxembourgian productions, some of which are in the Luxembourgish language. This year, they have two main contenders- (1)- “Apples & Pears” is a road movie about a shy 18-year old who follows the travel itinerary of her outgoing, extroverted sister to honor her after her tragic death; (2)- “Child” is a chilling horror-drama about mild-mannered parents who become involved with criminal organ trafficking networks to save the life of their young child. “Child” is the feature debut of the director of “The Red Suitcase”, an 18-minute short film that became the first-ever majority Luxembourg production to be nominated for an Oscar in 2023. So, they have two great, low-key options….one in the national language, and one by an actual Oscar nominee….It’s a dead heat but I predict “Child”. I heard someone predict “We’ll Find Happiness”, but director Lea Pool is Canadian and Luxembourg almost always chooses local filmmakers (the only exception was “Tel Aviv on Fire”).

MALTA- “Zejtune” Malta probably came incredibly close to the shortlist a few years ago for “Luzzu”, a really wonderful film that I was privileged to see in a Maltese cinema. Director Alex Camilleri has a new film this year, “Zejtune”, that won Best Screenplay in Tribeca. It’s about a young Maltese woman preparing to emigrate who meets an old man that starts changing her mind about her own country. It got a local release in April and it’s certain to represent Malta….if they enter. Last year, Malta had one of the most charming comedies of 2025 - “Ciao Ciao” - and the Maltese committee controversially decided to send nothing at all. "Ciao Ciao" was fantastic and the decision was disgraceful! 

Netherlands- “Our Girls” Once an Oscar powerhouse in the 1990s, the Netherlands hasn’t been nominated since 2003 and hasn’t been shortlisted since 2014. They announced a few weeks ago that six films had registered to represent the Netherlands and they have a bit of an odd situation. Last year, the favorite was “Our Girls” by Mike van Diem, the last director to bring home an Oscar for the Netherlands way back in 1998 (“Character”). Van Diem has only made three films since then and “Our Girls” has gotten very strong reviews for its dark look at two close families whose lives are changed after their teenaged daughters are involved in a near-fatal accident. Although it was the clear favorite last year, the Netherlands surprised everyone by picking “Reedland’, an odd, arty mystery with poor reviews. It appears that the clever producers of “Our Girls” quickly canceled the film's September 2025 Oscar-qualifying release and resubmitted it this year, where it again is the favorite. This year’s six contenders include three dramas- “Our Girls”, plus “A Family” (Berlin, 14+) and “Honestly, I’m Fine”- plus two documentaries – “House of Hope” (Palestine) and “Paikar” (an Afghan family), plus an amateurish children’s cartoon based on a TV show (“Ellie the Elephant”). Other than “Ellie”, these are all very well-regarded films. Since last year, “Our Girls” won Best Film at the Netherlands’ Golden Calf Awards and did very well at the box-office. How will the committee react to them entering a second time? I’m pretty confident “Our Girls” will go, but if the committee stands by their decision from last year,then Palestinian documentary “House of Hope” could stand to benefit. Last year's AMPAS International Film committee picked three Palestinian films for their 15-film shortlist last year so “House of Hope”, made by a Dutch director at a school in the Occupied West Bank, is also very possible…though “Our Girls” would clearly be a better choice. In a distant 3^rd place: “A Family”.

Norway- “Growth of the Soil” Norway is Oscar reigning champion this year, for the first time in Oscar history. Last year, "Sentimental Value" made Norway the third Nordic country to win the International Feature award. I was going to predict “Kjærast” by Erik Poppe, but Norway announced its shortlist on August 19 and it’s not on it. I’m glad I didn’t spend too much time researching Norway because two of their three shortlisted films are doing qualifying releases and I would not have expected them to be eligible. The three finalists are (1)- “Growth of the Soil” (Toronto), an old-fashioned drama set in rural Norway, and an adaptation of a Nobel Prize-winning novel, (2)- “Low Expectations” (Cannes), about a depressed musician who returns to her hometown after her career falls apart, and (3)- “Trango”, a Himalayan mountain climbing documentary. “Growth of the Soil” looks the most impressive and is by an established director….It also looks dreadfully old-fashioned. “Trango” was successful at the box-office but the Norwegian committee may remember that another man-against-nature documentary ("Songs of Earth") was the only time in the past six years they weren't strong in this category ("War Sailor" wasn't shortlisted but was rumored to be incredibly close). I’m actually not sure which of the two they’ll pick....But "Trango" just lost Best Documentary Feature at the Norwegian Amanda Awards (it was favored to win) so for now I’ll guess “Growth of the Soil”. 

PORTUGAL- “Maria Vitoria” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions (42!) without getting nominated (or even shortlisted). Last week, their Academy announced a shortlist of six little-known dramas - “18 Holes to Paradise” (about a large provincial family), “First Person Plural” (a weird drama about a couple on a post-COVID anniversary trip), “Maria Vitória” (about a female footballer and her estranged brother), “Projecto Global” (a political thriller about a far-left terrorist group), “The Scent of Things Remembered” (about a Portuguese war veteran and his African caretaker) and “Terra Vil” (a 12-year old and his alcoholic father). With no frontrunner, I could see any of these films (except “First Person Plural” which has pretty terrible reviews) representing Portugal. Thriller “Projecto Global” is the “big” and expensive (by Portuguese standards, anyway) option, while the relatively low-key “Maria Vitoria” arguably has the strongest reviews, “Scent of Things Remembered” won most of the Audience Awards at the national Sophia Awards, showing popular local support, while “18 Holes to Paradise” has actress starpower, a director who has been shortlisted before (“Mosquito”) and looks far more accessible than the other three. None of them seem likely to break the Portuguese Oscar curse. I’m not sure which of these four they’ll pick…it looks like a 4-way tie. Out of curiosity, I asked Google Gemini and it said “Projecto Global” would be picked. But that looks too action-packed for a Portuguese Academy that likes their films slow and introspective….So, I’m predicting the documentary-style cinema verite of the well-reviewed “Maria Vitoria”, though I’m personally hoping it’s “18 Holes to Paradise” since it’s the only one I actually want to see. I was surprised to see "I Only Rest in the Storm" (Cannes), "Lavagante" and "Night Passengers" absent from the shortlist. Did they not apply?

Spain- “La bola negra” There’s a nine-film “longlist” of Spanish films that have supposedly registered....Another list says there are 13…I’m not sure if either of these are real but let’s assume the 9-film list is because three of the films seem 95% locked to be on Spain’s traditional 3-film shortlist, which is scheduled to be announced next week, on Thursday, September 3.  These three are: “La Bola Negra” and “The Beloved” (both from Cannes, and each co-starring one half of power couple Bardem and Cruz) plus Goya winner “Sundays”.  

I’d find it hard to believe that any of the other six (ten?) rumored films have any chance. Almodovar’s “Bitter Christmas” was in Cannes Main Competition alongside “Beloved” and “La Bola Negra”…but reviews have been unenthusiastic (but I still want to see it!) and Almodovar is also a producer for “La Bola Negra” so he won’t be “snubbed”. The three character studies- “La luz” (a priest with a secret), “Corredora” (a female athlete) and “Viva” (a cancer survivor)-  are well-liked…but just not as well-liked as “Beloved”, “Bola” and “Sundays”. “5 dias con Lara” (a transgender story) and “Dos dias” (a man with Alzheimers) have very good reviews…but they’re such small and obscure titles that they are running uphill. But if there is a tie and a fourth film goes through (as happened once in 2013) or if there is a shock upset, I expect “Dos dias” could go through. The longer rumored list includes "Another League", "I Won't Die for Love", "A Son" and "This Body of Mine"....all with good reviews but unlikely to dislodge the Top 3. 

But the three frontrunners are going to be a bloodbath. “La bola Negra”, an epic film about the LGBT experience during three eras of Spanish history has the best overall reviews, a Best Director award from Cannes, and the most buzz, as well as Oscar royalty Glenn Close and Penelope Cruz in the supporting cast. “Beloved” is a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem as a temperamental film director, and is directed by Oscar nominee Rodrigo Sorogoyen, who was stupidly not sent in 2022 (“Las bestias”) when the Spanish Academy sent the sleep-inducing Carla Simon a second time. So he is owed a spot. “Sundays” won Best Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay at the Goyas (defeating last year’s submission and Oscar nominee “Sirat”) for its story of a driven young woman who shocks her family by announcing she is joining a convent, showing strong industry support. So it’s an embarrassment of riches! All three would make a great submission for Spain. And by choosing one, Spain will open the floodgates to complaints from fans of the other two. “La bola negra” is the favorite and my prediction; but I wouldn’t count out “The Beloved” if Javier starts to get Best Actor buzz. 

SWEDEN- “Brace Your Heart” This was clearly a weak year for Sweden. Although the eligibility period is October 1, 2025-September 30, 2026, they didn’t shortlist any films released in the first 11 ½ months of the year. I didn’t do too much research before they announced their shortlist on August 20, but I was predicting they’d shortlist “Brace Your Heart”, "The Quiet Beekeeper" and “The Swedish Connection” with “Brace Your Heart” winning going to the Oscars. They did shortlist Sami drama “Brace Your Heart” (Toronto), but the other two films on the list won’t actually be widely released until later this year - (1)- “Adult Supervision” (aka "Archipelago"), a comedy-drama about three fathers premiering in October, starring Gustaf Skarsgård (the less famous brother of Alexander and Bill; he starred in “The Vikings”) and Fares Fares; and (2)- “Bloody Men”, premiering in November, about a 7-year old and his fantasy world in 1980s Sweden.  Nobody has seen any of these three movies, so it’s impossible to know which one is best. But since “Brace Your Heart”, a drama about a young woman who inherits her father’s reindeer herd, actually got picked for a major festival, that’s my prediction. It’s in the minority Sami language and is the most serious of the three entries. “Bloody Men”, based on a popular novel, should come second or could win if "Brace Your Heart" wins the Platform Award in Toronto. “Adult Supervision” seems to be the longest shot…but who knows? 

Switzerland- “Who Is Still Alive” It must have been a weak year for Switzerland. They shortlisted three films, all made by directors from the country’s French-speaking sector, and only one was actually made in Switzerland. The three finalists were “Cosmos”, an overlong Mexican drama in Spanish, “Silent Rebellion”, a period drama set during WWII Switzerland about a village’s hostile reception to refugees fleeing Nazi-occupied France, and “Who Is Still Alive”, an Arabic-language documentary about nine survivors of Israeli strikes in Gaza. This was clearly decided between “Rebellion” and “Who Is Still Alive”, both of which premiered in Venice last year…but “Who Is Still Alive” had far better reviews and is clearly the more topical choice. After the shortlist announcement, it was obvious that this would be the film that would be picked, and Switzerland confirmed it on August 13. I've seen "Who Is Still Alive", which is an important film that highlights the lives of ordinary Gazans (including social media influencers, artists, doctors and filmmakers) and showing the world that the territory was much more than a Hamas stronghold.     

United Kingdom- “Effi o Blaenau” Until around 2003, the Oscars had a rule that International Film submissions had to be made in a language indigenous to the submitting country. Because of this, from 1993-2008, all UK submissions were made by Welsh filmmakers and were at least partially in the Welsh language. Asif Kapadia (who later won an Oscar for "Amy") was selected by the UK for the Hindi-language film "The Warrior" but it was disqualified and this was one of the instances that led to the rule change. Since the rule change, BAFTA now usually sends films made by British filmmakers working outside the UK. Since 2009, only two of the 14 British submissions were Welsh and there have been zero since 2015. The other twelve films were set in Afghanistan, Germany, India, Iran (twice), Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey (twice) and Zambia. Seven of these were made by diaspora filmmakers. 

Welsh cinema has been on the rise recently and I’m predicting Britain returns to Wales for the first time in a decade with “Effi o Blaenau”, probably the best-reviewed Welsh film in years and made by a well-respected filmmaker who repped the UK in 2011. Based on a Greek tragedy, it’s about a hard-partying girl from the countryside who experiences a major life change. This would be a strong acknowledgement of local Celtic cinema in a country that has recently preferred stories from the Global South. Also very possible: documentary “One in a Million”, following the life of a Syrian refugee girl between the ages of 11 and 21 and “Cielo”, a UK production made in Bolivia following a little Indigenous girl through Fellini-esque magical realism. Less likely: documentary “Something Familiar” (a Romanian adoptee) and docudrama “Without Permission” (made in Iran by the director of their 2022 submission “Winners”). 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE OSCAR, PREDICTIONS FOR WESTERN EUROPE (20 countries)

 And here's the last group of countries....Last year, this group (unfairly) claimed seven of the 15 spots on the shortlist. All seven were "good" (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland and Sweden), although I only would have considered shortlisting Belgium and possibly Sweden. 

1.     AUSTRIA- “The Fox” Austria is looking to get shortlisted for the third year in a row and they have a fierce three-way race to represent the country- “Eismayer” and “Vera” (both from Venice 2022) and “The Fox” (Tallinn Black Nights). “The Fox” clearly has the best reviews and Austria is usually pragmatic and logical about their film, so that’s my prediction. Set at the beginning of WWII, it’s about a young soldier, a fox cub and the brutality of war. Many people are predicting “Eismayer”, an LGBT military drama in which a closeted senior officer falls for a young, out soldier. It’s very possible…but maybe too similar in theme to “Great Freedom”? Both "Fox" and "Eismayer" were nominated for Best Picture against “Corsage” at last year’s Austrian Film Awards….but all three of them lost Best Picture and Best Director to the unheralded Italian-language docu-drama “Vera”, which blends drama and “reality TV” voyeurism (“Eismayer” won Best Screenplay but failed to get a Best Director nomination). AMPAS is much more likely to nominate “The Fox”. But Austria has had a good year. Two other possibilities including the upcoming B&W thriller “Theory of Everything” which will premiere at Venice 2023…It’s a majority German production but Austria has picked German co-productions six of the past ten years. Corruption drama “Europa” (Sarajevo) is set in Albania and directed by Sudabeh Mortezai who was famously disqualified for “Joy”, which ended up convincing AMPAS to change the rules for films in African dialects of English. Reviews have been good and they could pick her as a consolation for the disqualification. But I’m sticking with “The Fox”.

2. BELGIUM- "When It Melts" I've read a rumor that Belgium is considering four films- two from French-speaking Wallonia (“Omen” and “The (Ex)perience of Love") and two from Dutch-speaking Flanders (“Holly” and “When it Melts”), although that's not official. All four got major festival play in 2023; "Holly" in Venice, "Melts" in Sundance. and the two French ones at Cannes.  "Holly", a Belgian take on "Carrie" about a psychic young girl who avoids a school fire that kills ten classmates due to premonition, was long the favorite since it got a coveted Main Competition slot in Venice. But reviews have been weak. A 2.9 on Letterboxd, a 5.5 on IMDB and a 50% on Rotten Tomatoes just aren't good enough for Belgium. I like the Belgian sense of humor so I'd love to see them pick "(Ex)perience of Love", about an infertile couple who learn they have a rare condition that requires they both sleep with every lover they've ever had again, in order to conceive a child. But that may be too light (though my favorite Belgian submission, the whimsical "Brand New Testament" had a similar fantasy element). So, that leaves "Omen", an African drama that really should be representing the CONGO, and "When It Melts", said to be a "feel-bad" drama about a 26-year old woman confronting a childhood trauma.  This is going to be really close...but Belgium hasn't picked a Dutch-language film in years....and that may be enough to break the tie in favor of "When It Melts" especially if the Belgians were able to convince Congo to revive its long-defunct committee (they last submitted in 1997). But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see "Omen" selected. 

3.     DENMARK- “The Promised Land” Denmark has a remarkable record in this category. Despite being one of Western Europe’s smaller countries, since 2010 they’ve made the shortlist ten times (out of 13), winning twice and getting five more nominations. Before Denmark announced their shortlist on August 24th, I was pretty sure that the three finalists would be drawn from four extremely strong candidates. Three of the four directors already had Oscar nominations- “The Liberation” (aka “Before It Ends”) by the director of Oscar Short Film winner Anders Walter (“Helium” and “Ivalu”, neither of which I liked very much), “The Promised Land” (aka “The Bastard”) by Nikolaj Arcel, the director of “A Royal Affair”; and “Tove’s Room”, by Martin Zandvliet, director of “Land of Mine”. I felt that these three would be competing against “Quiet Migration”, a quiet Korean adoption drama that played in Berlin Panorama, for the shortlist. In the end, I dumped "Tove's Room" (which was correct) but included "Quiet Migration", thinking they would want a female director on the list. "The Liberation" and "The Promised Land" made the cut, but "Quiet Migration" didn't. Instead they picked documentary "Apolonia, Apolonia" which gave the list some female representation. 18^th century period drama “The Promised Land” is the biggest of the three.,..it has international movie star Mads Mikkelsen and just premiered in the Main Competition of the Venice Film Festival, winning an Honorable Mention. That makes it far and away the frontrunner although “The Liberation”, about refugees from Nazi Germany mistreated in Denmark during the final year of WWII, is also a strong contender, while "Apolonia" is just happy to be on the list. Trivia: 75-year old Oscar winner Bille August has a new Netflix movie (“Ehrengard: The Art of Seduction”) premiering in October but it wasn't on the list, possibly because it wasn't shown in cinemas; and feminist drama “Unruly”, which unexpectedly Best Nordic Film at the Goteborg Film Festival, defeating favorites “Godland” and “Let the River Flow”, also failed to make the list.  In the end, Mads and Nikolaj should get this fairly easily.

4.      FINLAND- “Fallen Leaves” (if Kaurismaki allows it to be submitted) Finland doesn’t have too many options this year and their two frontrunners both have problems. The undisputed critical darling of the year in Finland is Aki Kaurismaki’s “Fallen Leaves”. However, the grouchy director- who cannot separate art from politics- has made six films since 1996. Four were selected to represent Finland at the Oscars....but he demanded that two be withdrawn (purposefully waiting until after the deadline to make sure that no other Finnish director could be selected instead) but he allowed two to compete ("Le Havre" and "Man Without A Past"). When his most recent film, “The Other Side of Hope”, came out in 2017, he announced (in advance, this time) that he didn’t want his film considered, opening the door for the sexy “Tom of Finland”. “Fallen Leaves”, winner of the Cannes Jury Prize, has gotten some wonderful reviews for its story of two lonely people finding romance….but there’s no way of knowing if the temperamental director will allow it to be submitted.  Finland’s second-best options, family Christmas dramedy “Family Time” (Berlin), and polyamory drama “Four Little Adults” (the feature debut of Oscar-nominated Short Film director Selma Vilhunen) aren't scheduled to be released until November and December respectively. Unlike some other countries, Finland doesn't do early releases for the Oscars. So I’m confused. If none of these are eligible, then the race is wide open and Finland will likely choose a late release that hasn’t premiered yet, probably “Lapua 1976” (a true-story factory explosion), ”Je’vida” (Tribeca/Toronto; filmed in an obscure Sami dialect) or “Power of Love” (which looks like a rural “Blue Valentine”?). This is all up to Kaurismaki. I'm hearing he has said yes....So it’s probably “Fallen Leaves”. If not, it’s probably “Je’vida”.

5. FRANCE- "Anatomy of a Fall" (Anatomie d'une Chute) France announced a 5-film shortlist today, with five well-regarded films, including four from the Cannes Film Festival - Palme d'Or winner "Anatomy of a Fall", Best Director Winner "The Taste of Things" (Le pot-au-feu), Un Certain Regard participant "The Animal Kingdom" (Le Règne animal) and Cannes Critics Week (2022) participant "Sons of Ramses" (Goutte d'or). Three of the five have big international stars- Oscar winner Jean Dujardin stars in "On the Wandering Paths" (Sur les chemins noirs, the only non-Cannes title), Oscar winner Juliette Binoche stars in "The Taste of Things", and Romain Duris stars in "The Animal Kingdom". To represent the great filmmaking nation of France, you have to have a high-profile, great reviews and be accessible to AMPAS. That eliminates three films from the list. The small-scale "Sons of Ramses", a thriller about a phony psychic facing off against a Moroccan gang, was a surprise finalist (possibly knocking out Johnny Depp's "Jeanne du Barry"??). It has good reviews but is probably too small to represent la France. "On the Wandering Paths", about an active explorer who goes on a solo trek after being crippled in accident, sounds inspiring but reviews haven't been as strong as the other four. And while "Animal Kingdom" does have good reviews, a sci-fi adventure (even an intellectual one) about a world where some people begin mutating in animals will be seen as too "genre" and too risky....especially after body horror movie "Titane" didn't even get shortlisted. So, this is very much a two-way race. The first candidate is murder-mystery-thriller "Anatomy of a Fall", about a young blind man who is the only witness to his father's death....possibly a suicide, or possibly a murder committed by his mother. The second is "The Taste of Things", a period drama about food, food and food...in the tradition of Oscar winner "Babette's Feast". Despite the reorganization of the French committee, it's difficult to see them rejecting a critically acclaimed Palme d'Or winner. "Anatomy of a Fall" has the best reviews of the five. However, they could be turned off by the fact that the film is approximately 60% in French and 40% in English. In that case, French-Vietnamese Tran Anh Hung ("Scent of Green Papaya") could contend for his second Oscar nomination. But I'm predicting the Palme d'Or winner, followed by "Taste" and "Animal Kingdom" in a very distant third. 

6. GERMANY- “The Teacher's Lounge" Germany announced a 12-film shortlist in August, including three directors who've been picked before. Before the announcement, I divided the films into three tiers:

Tier One: Afire (Berlinale Jury Prize), Teacher’s Lounge (Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actress, German Film Awards), The Theory of Everything (Venice), A Whole Life

Tier Two: Anselm, Elaha, Sisi & I, Weekend Rebels

Tier Three: The Ordinaries, Orphea in Love, What You Can See From Here, A Woman

    In my opinion, only the Top Tier films had any remote chance of representing Germany. Germany announced before I had a chance to write the films up but I was planning on predicting the universally beloved "Teacher's Lounge", with "Whole Life" a very close second, and "The Theory of Everything" a bit further behind in third. 

7. GREENLAND- “Twice Colonized” Greenland hasn’t sent a film since 2012 and I’ve heard their selection committee is long defunct. That’s a shame because Greenland (population: 57,000) has a growing film industry and an annual film festival. If they do return this year, it will certainly be Sundance documentary “Twice Colonized”, about an activist/lawyer trying to promote Greenlandic language and culture under Danish rule. It has a Danish director but boasts some local Greenlandic crew and “creative control”. 

8. GREECE- “Behind the Haystacks” In the past, the winner of Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (usually) went to the Oscars. Since the creation of the Hellenic Film Awards, the winner of Best Picture (2010-2015, 2021-2022) usually but not always goes to the Oscars. When “Behind the Haystacks” won both of these precursor awards, it became the clear favorite to represent Greece. It swept the local Greek Film Awards, and the story focus on a moral dilemma drama (I love these) focusing on a family that begins to help refugees cross the porous Balkan borders in exchange for economic benefits. But it’s not an automatic process like Thessaloniki used to be, so the Greek Academy could easily choose “Black Stone”, a dramedy about an overprotective Greek mother who agrees to participate in a documentary to clear her beloved son’s name…but who learns she may not know him as well as she thought. It got nominated for seven Hellenic Film Awards, winning one (Best Actress). It will almost certainly be one of these two but other options include “Animalia” (Locarno) about dancers who perform in tourist resort shows, “Listen”, about a young deaf woman, or breezy LGBT comedy “Summer with Carmen” (though I think that will be eligible next year). 

9. ICELAND- “Godland” Godland, about a young 19^th century Danish priest sent to a remote part of Iceland, has won tons of awards and gotten tons of exposure since it premiered at Cannes Un Certain Regard 2022. It premiered in Icelandic cinemas in March 2023 and got a limited U.S. release this summer. In any other year, quirky dramedy “Driving Mum”, about a man on a road trip with his dead mother to fulfill her final dying wish, would represent Iceland easily. 

10. IRELAND- “Viva Mary” Ireland was nominated in almost every category at last year’s Oscars and much was made of their first-ever nomination in the International Feature category for the sweet “The Quiet Girl”, a rare box-office and critical hit in the Irish language, spoken by only 2% of Irish people on a daily basis. They have had Irish language features eligible the past three years (and at least two in 2021 and 2022) which is why it’s so sad that they don't have any this year, to follow up on their historic Oscar nomination. They did have three new short-but-feature-length documentaries (50 to 70 minutes) in Irish and English at the Galway Film Festival, as well as one in Arabic (“In the Shadow of Beirut”) by a previously submitted documentary filmmaker. None of these look especially likely and I fear Ireland may be absent for the first time since 2018. But their best option is “Viva Mary”, a spare 52-minute documentary about the life of a feisty Irish grandmother who has been an educator, a sailor and a housewife. I have “Rebel Hearts”, about lesbian relationships in early 20th century Ireland, in second place.

11. ITALY- " La chimera" Italy announced that twelve films had registered to represent the country, including films directed by one Oscar winner (Gabriele Salvatores), one Oscar nominee (Alba Rohrwacher), two Palme d'Or winners (Nanni Moretti and Marco Bellocchio) plus a two-time Cannes Jury Prize winner and Venice Golden Lion nominee (Mateo Garrone). The four men have represented Italy a total of eight times, though only Gabriele Salvatores has made it to the next round, winning for "Mediterraneo" in 1991/1992. I've divided the twelve films into six tiers of two:

Tier One:  The Captain (Garrone; Venice), La chimera (Rohrwacher; Cannes)

Tier Two:  Kidnapped (Bellocchio; Cannes), Last Night of Amore (Berlin)

Tier Three: A Brighter Tomorrow (Moretti; Cannes), Fireworks

Tier Four:    Casanova's Return (Salvatores), Thank You Guys

Tier Five:     C’e ancora domani, Mixed by Erry

Tier Six:    Noi anna luce, Land of Women

The films in Tiers Four through Six either have weak reviews (Casanova, Noi anna luce and especially Land of Women), no buzz (the yet-to-be-released C'e ancora domani) or will be considered too light (comedies Thank You Guys and Mixed by Erry). Although Salvatores has won before, he's not in contention this year. 

Google Nanni Moretti's "meta" comedy "A Brighter Tomorrow" (in which he directs, writers, produces and stars) about a director confronting his complicated family history while directing a movie, and you'll get wildly uneven reviews. The Guardian called it "bafflingly awful" though others say it's charming. Though "Fireworks", about two gay teens in violent 1980s Sicily, has some of the best reviews it's probably the only one without a chance, since it has the least buzz, minimal festival play, and a subject matter that may make the Italian Academy uneasy. So they're probably out. 

And that leaves our Top 4, which includes three of the big names- Garrone's migrant drama "The Captain", Rohrwacher's comedy "La chimera" and Marco Bellocchio's period religious drama "Kidnapped", plus crime thriller "Last Night of Amore".  The other four play to what the Italians usually choose- Italy has selected three movies centered on migration and four crime dramas since 2011; Rohrwacher's film seems to be channeling Fellini and Sorrentino; and 82-year old Bellocchio is following in the footsteps of his own three previous submissions. 

While I'm rooting for comedy "La chimera", Italy's Academy almost never chooses women directors (only 2 1/2 times since 1990; Cristina Comenici was their second choice when "Private" was disqualified) and Rohrwacher has been a favorite twice before ("The Wonders" was beaten by human trafficking drama "Terraferma", while "Happy as Lazarro" was beaten by Garrone's "Dogman"). I fear she may experience deja vu. Garrone's "The Captain", about young African migrants going through hell trying to illegally emigrate to Europe, is arguably the best-reviewed film of the year and it just won Best Director at Venice. I know "Captain" is the favorite and fits the Italian Academy...but I'm hoping that Rohrwacher's Best Short Film nomination last year and the fact that Garrone was picked twice without success since 2008 (for the very good "Dogman" and the dreadful, overrated "Gomorrah") may give her the edge. But probably not. 

Bellocchio's 19th century anti-Semitism drama "Kidnapped", based on the true story of the abduction of a Jewish child by the Catholic church, just got a 5-star review from the Guardian, and will definitely have its supporters. But Bellocchio was picked just four years ago...although he's 82 and every film could be his last. "Last Night of Amore" is a slick crime drama with very good reviews...but they picked a crime drama starring Pierfrancisco Favino last year....These two are probably great films but I think this is a two-way race between the two frontrunners. 
  

12. LUXEMBOURG- “Little Duke" As far as I know, tiny Luxembourg has four eligible options (in alphabetical order) “The Last Ashes”, a B&W feminist revenge drama set in the 19^th century, “Little Duke”, about two aging friends with money problems who are surprised to inherit a debt-ridden pub, “Maret”, a thriller about a woman with amnesia, and “Wolfkin”, a horror-drama about a woman whose son inherits monstruous qualities from her estranged family. Directors Laura Schroeder (“Maret”) and Andy Bausch (“Little Duke”) have been picked before. “Maret” was the only local feature in competition at the Luxembourg City Film Festival but “Duke” has the stronger reviews. Bausch, one of Luxembourg’s first directors to work in the local language, made Luxembourg’s second-ever Oscar submission in 1998 and picking him would be a kind of lifetime achievement award. I say “Duke” will get this, followed by “The Last Ashes”, “Wolfkin” and “Maret” in last place. 

13. MALTA- “Night Owl” Tiny Malta has sent films two years in a row though the charming but flawed “Carmen” was disqualified last year because it was definitely more than 50% in English. Beautiful Malta is branding itself as an international filming location and they don’t have many Maltese-language productions. They did release a Maltese-language comedy this year based on a popular TV sketch show- “Klassi Ghalina versus Dragula”, but they surely won’t send that. If they try to enter, it will likely be 50-minute short film “Night Owl” (films can enter if they are 40 minutes or more) about a Maltese expat in Korea…but like “Carmen”, the trailer has quite a bit of English dialogue. 

14. NETHERLANDS- “When We Lost to the Germans” (written August 20) The Netherlands announced a shortlist of 15 films on August 14^th. I think we can eliminate five of these films right off the bat (comedy “All-Inclusive”, depression drama “Broken”, Netflix mystery “Faithfully Yours”, low-budget immigrant drama “That Afternoon”, and family thriller “Under Water”). Reviews just aren’t good enough. The next tier of films have mostly good reviews but are probably too small or not mainstream enough to represent the country at the Oscars- “Inside My Heart”, a documentary about intellectually disabled actors, “Kiddo”, a mother-daughter road movie that played at Berlinale’s 14+ Section, “The Man From Rome”, a comedy-thriller about a priest, “Mascot”, a gritty indie about a troubled youth, and “Under the Naked Sky”, an upcoming film about a girl with an intellectually disabled mother. And then there were five. 

      I think the five frontrunners with a real chance at representing the kingdom at the Oscars are (1)- “Line of Fire”, a drama (premiering in September) about a Dutch war hero who is unable to translate his wartime successes to the real world, (2)- “Lost Transport”, a Holocaust drama about three women from three nationalities who find friendship in the closing days of WWII, (3)- “Summer Brother”, the Closing Film for this year’s Nederlands Film Festival, about a boy developing a relationship with his mentally disabled brother, (4)- “Sweet Dreams”, set at a Dutch-Indonesian colonial plantation, and (5)- “When We Lost to the Germans”, a period drama set in 1974, about two Dutch boys and the mysterious disappearance of a classmate. Most people are predicting “Sweet Dreams”, which is the only film on the list that has screened at a major festival (Locarno and Toronto)… and has earned much praise as a comeback vehicle for 80s star Renée Soutendijk. And the sumptuous, exotic “Sweet Dreams” looks beautiful and is very, very possible! But recently, the Netherlands Academy has picked an underdog (perhaps one reason they haven’t been nominated in 20 years?) and has preferred small, intimate films over big ones…“Do Not Hesitate” and “Instinct” were both good….”Narcosis” was fine…”Bulado” was a mess….But what they all four had in common was that they were barely known before (and even after) they were selected over bigger titles. So, I’m going rogue and predicting the Netherlands selects the upcoming “When We Lost to the Germans”, with “Sweet Dreams” a close second, “Line of Fire” in third and “Summer Brother” in fourth. The baity “Lost Transport” whose premise is stronger than its reviews will come a strong fifth place.

15. NORWAY- “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” Norway usually announces a three-film shortlist before naming their Oscar candidate….and this year I suspect that those three spots will go to “Let the River Flow”, “Narvik: Hitler’s First Defeat” and “The Riot”, with “Dancing Queen” hoping to knock one of those films out of the third slot. The Norwegian Academy sometimes chooses its most “critically acclaimed” film of the year (“Hope”, “Worst Person in the World”) but they often go with their “biggest, most impressive” films of the year (“War Sailor”, “The Wave”, “Kon-Tiki”), in an effort to impress AMPAS voters. “Let the River Run” tells the true story of a Sami (Lapp) indigenous community in northern Norway fighting back against government efforts to build a dam. This story, set between 1979-1981, tells the story of an important moment in Norwegian history and won Best Picture and Best Director at the 2023 Amanda Awards (“War Sailor” didn’t get a Picture, Director or Screenplay nomination). “Narvik” didn’t do very well at the Amandas (it got a Best Actress nomination and four tech nods) and reviews aren’t nearly as good as “River”. But it’s one of the most expensive Norwegian movies ever made, it has a Netflix streaming deal in the U.S., and it tells the patriotic story of the first defeat of Nazi forces during WWII, by Norwegian forces. Last year’s shortlist was almost entirely films that had U.S. distribution deals (“War Sailor” premiered on Netflix after the announcement of the shortlist) and “Narvik” will likely resonate more with American audiences. “The Riot” (Sulis) is the third period contender. Directed by Nils Gaup, who directed Norway’s first Oscar nominee in the modern era (“Pathfinder”), The Riot” is about an early 20^th century mining rebellion. The fourth strong contender- “Dancing Queen”- is described by one Letterboxd reviewer as “Napoleon Dynamite meets Pitch Perfect meets John Hughes” (!) and is a well-liked feel-good dance movie but it may have trouble shifting one of the three heavyweights. A few dark horses: “Sister, What Grows Where Land Is Sick?” got an Amanda Best Pic nomination against “Let the River Flow” and comedy “Sick of Myself” (which was on Norway’s shortlist last year); societal satire “The Hypnosis” (Karlovy Vary); and documentary “Last Film” is about a filmmaker trying to complete his final film. I think “Narvik” has the edge, though “Let the River Flow” (#2) and “The Riot” (#3) are extremely close.

16. PORTUGAL- “Bad Living” Portugal did the unthinkable last year….They picked a good film! No women whispering in the dark….No narrators reading poetry about their relatives….No three-hour run-times…..”Alma Viva” was charming, original and special. Bravo Portugal! Keep going! Portugal almost always chooses a film that premiered at one of the big festivals…Nine of the past ten years, the Portuguese submission premiered at Berlin, Cannes, Locarno or Venice. That means the frontrunners are “Bad Living” (Silver Berlin Bear Jury Prize at Berlin 2023) and “Tommy Guns” (winner of two minor awards at Venice 2022) or- less likely- “Legua" (Cannes) or "Baan” or “Manga d’Terra” (both Locarno 2023). I think “Bad Living”, about a group of female relatives sniping at each other while running a hotel, will be picked. It’s high-profile and has mostly positive reviews. Portugal has never been nominated and probably won’t be anytime soon, but this would be the best entry for them. Other films in the mix include one by a previously selected director- migrant drama “Great Yarmouth” (Marco Martins), plus glossy period movies- crime drama “Worst Man in London” and artist biopic “Amadeo”. My predictions for the Top Four: “Bad Living”, “Tommy Guns”, “Worst Man in London” and “Great Yarmouth”. I expect all four on the shortlist. (UPDATE: Only "Bad Living" made the real 4-film Portugal shortlist, along with "Legua", "Living Bad" and an animated cartoon called "Nayola"....But "Bad Living" ended up being selected as Portugal's Oscar candidate). 

17. SPAIN- "Society of Snow"

18.SWEDEN- “Paradise is Burning” Ever since 2019, Sweden has joined their fellow Scandinavians in announcing a three-film shortlist prior to announcing their final candidate. I suspect that will be “Opponent”, a Persian/Swedish-language drama about wrestling, “Paradise is Burning”, which will premiere in Venice next month, and Levan Akin’s upcoming drama “Passage” (aka “Crossing”) set in Turkey and Georgia. A half dozen other films could get that third shortlist spot, including new films by previously submitted directors Lukas Moodysson (“Together 99”, a sequel) and Andreas Ohman (“One Day All This Will Be Yours”, which has weak reviews) plus “The Abyss”, “Bullets”, “Exodus” (an Arabic-language human trafficking drama, and the mostly likely of the six) and “The Sugar Experiment”. Any of the Top Three could easily get picked; only “Opponent”, which stars Payman Maadi (the husband from “A Separation) as a middle-aged immigrant who gets asylum in Sweden and joins a wrestling club, has screened for critics. Akin has been selected once before so I suspect his queer drama will be beaten by “Paradise is Burning”, a baitier film about three teens trying to survive after being abandoned by their mother. “Opponent” will likely come a very close second. (UPDATE: "Paradise is Burning" and "Opponent" made the Swedish shortlist but "Crossing" didn't premiere in time. "Together 99", rather than "Exodus", got the third slot but it won't be selected. This is down to the Top Two). 

19. SWITZERLAND- “Let Me Go” (Written August 3^rd) Switzerland announced a seven-film shortlist today and will announce their final pick at the Locarno Film Festival tomorrow. It’s a pretty obscure list with five fiction features and two documentaries (they’ve picked four documentaries in the past ten years). Three are from French-speaking Switzerland, two from German-speaking Switzerland, one from Italian-speaking Switzerland and one from Georgia (and not from Switzerland at all!) Here are my predictions:

1.     Let Me Go (French)- This obscure French-language feature played at a Cannes sidebar for independent films (ACID). It’s about the mother of a disabled child who finds satisfaction in anonymous sexual encounters with travelers…who is shocked when one man decides to stay and begin a relationship…which she’s not sure she wants. It’s said to be a divisive film, but the good reviews are quite good.

2.     Blackbird Blackbird Blackberry (Georgian)- If this were really a Swiss film, I think it would get picked. It probably has the best reviews and premiered in Cannes Director’s Fortnight….and Switzerland last won the Oscar for a film in Kurdish….But it’s really not a Swiss film so I think it will be the runner-up. Director Elene Naveriani studied film in Switzerland.

3.     Thunder (French)- A film about faith and friendship set in a small village when a novice nun returns home after the mysterious death of her sister. It is probably considered the favorite and has the most festival play since debuting at Toronto 2022. But it lost the Swiss Film Prize to “A Piece of Sky”, which wasn’t a huge critical success, winning just Best Sound and Best Score. I think Switzerland would rather pick something new. (UPDATE: This is the film Switzerland ended up selecting)

4.     Last Dance (French)- Premiered at Locarno, Switzerland’s leading film festival. It’s a well-reviewed comedy-drama about a widower adjusting to life after his wife’s death. Switzerland picked the unheralded comedy “Wolkenbruch” a few years ago (though that had a Netflix deal) though it’s certainly not as serious as the other entries.

5.     Röbi geht (German)- A documentary following a 75-year old who refuses chemotherapy when he’s told he has three months to live. Completely off the radar….I had to add it to IMDB.

6.     Becoming Giulia (Italian)- A documentary about a prima ballerina trying to return to the cutthroat world of ballet months after giving birth…Good reviews but it’s a small movie, even for Switzerland.

7.     A Forgotten Man (German)- Based on a true story about the homecoming of the Swiss Ambassador who served in Berlin when Switzerland chose neutrality during WWII, “A Forgotten Man” looks like total Oscar bait. But ever since the Swiss Film Prize was created in 1998, all their Oscar submissions got nominated for Best Feature Film or Best Documentary Feature except twice (2002 and 2007….long, long time ago). But “A Forgotten Man” didn’t so I think it’s out.  

20. UNITED KINGDOM- “Zone of Interest”- The UK is rarely a serous contender in this category. This used to be a showcase for Welsh cinema (both of the UK’s Oscar nominations in this category were Welsh films in the 1990s) but in the past ten years, only one Welsh film has been selected; another five were based in the Islamic world (Iran, Pakistan and Turkey), two in Africa (Malawi and Zambia) and one in Asia (Philippines). This year the UK is one of the frontrunners, having won the Cannes Jury Prize for “Zone of Interest”, a German-language film by UK director Jonathan Glazer, about the home life of the superintendent of Auschwitz Death Camp.  That’s bad news for “Y Swyn”, a well-reviewed Welsh political drama. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that has never sent a film to the Oscars and they'll probably send something eventually. This year's multi-strand "Iman", about three seemingly unrelated stories that come together during a terrorist attack, has played at quite a few regional film festivals (Thessaloniki, Sofia, Cyprus Film Days). It would be a fitting first submission for Cyprus. They also have abstract romantic drama "Embryo Larva Butterfly" (Thessaloniki).